Afghanistan: A US-Pakistan Deal? Karzai Stays, Talks with the Taliban

The US in Afghanistan: “The Long War” Still Waits for a Strategy

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Syed Saleem Shahzad, using Pakistani sources, has written an article with dramatic allegations in the Asia Times. Shahzad claims that the US, through Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and the Pakistan military cut a deal to "resolve" the post-election Afghanistan situation: challenger Abdullah Abdullah would withdraw, allowing Hamid Karzai to serve another term, and negotiations would begin with the Taliban:

Abdullah Abdullah, who this week withdrew from the presidential election runoff in Afghanistan, thereby handing victory to the incumbent, Hamid Karzai, did so under pressure from the United States, Asia Times Online has learned.

In exchange for the pullout of the non-Pashtun Abdullah, Pakistan's military has agreed to actively mediate between Washington and the Taliban over a reconciliation plan that will allow the US to exit from Afghanistan, as it is doing in Iraq, with a semblance of success.

A senior Pakistani diplomat involved in backchannel negotiations on Pakistan, Afghanistan and US relations told Asia Times Online on the condition of anonymity that the deal over Abdullah, whom Islamabad considers to be pro-India, was made during the three-day visit to Pakistan last week of US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.



Apart from other senior officials, Clinton met with the chief of army staff, General Ashfaq Parvez Kiani, and the director general of Inter-Services Intelligence, Lieutenant General Ahmad Shuja Pasha. It was agreed that all US-led negotiations with Abdullah, which included offering him the position of chief executive officer of Afghanistan, would stop, and Karzai would get full backing for a second five-year term.

It was also acknowledged that Washington's political leadership, like the Pentagon, now accepts that the Taliban-led insurgency in Afghanistan is best tackled with contact between the Pakistan armed forces and the Taliban, and not by the political governments of the region.

Clinton's visit came at a crucial time as Pakistan is engaged in a battle against the Pakistani Taliban and other militants; if it fails, there will be a cascading effect in the whole region and a sure defeat of American interests in Afghanistan.

In this context, Clinton supported Pakistan's vision of Afghanistan, that Abdullah's participation as a major player in the government would be detrimental to the cause of dialogue with the Taliban. Clinton also played a major role in India's decision to pull out its forces from the Pakistan-India border near Kashmir. This allows the Pakistan army to concentrate on its fight against al-Qaeda in the Pakistani tribal areas. The army assured Clinton it would broaden this fight in the coming months.

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Emergency Analysis: Josh Shahryar on Afghanistan's Political Turmoil

Afghanistan: Abdullah Withdraws, US Political Plan Collapses
Understanding “Mr Obama’s Wars”: Five Essential Analyses on Afghanistan and Pakistan

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Enduring America correspondent Josh Shahryar explains the latest political developments in Afghanistan and assesses their significance:

Dr. Abdullah Abdullah announced today that he would not be participating in the upcoming Nov. 7 run-off against Hamid Karzai. The decision comes at a time when both Afghans and the West are waiting patiently for a new government so both political factions can develop a much-needed plan to urgently deal with the rising tide of insecurity in the country. However, Abdullah’s decision to back out may just plunge Afghanistan into chaos.

Abdullah’s decision is rooted in two main issues. The first was the retention of Azizullah Lodin as head of the Independent Election Commission. A Karzai appointee, Lodin is seen by Abdullah’s camp and a large portion of the population as being heavily biased in favor of the President. Under his leadership, the 20 August election was so rigged that, after weeks of scrutiny and debate, a Karzai first-round victory had to be converted into a run-off. So it is no surprise that Abdullah wants Lodin and several other officials out.

Afghanistan’s electorate is very unevenly distributed on a very rugged and often inaccessible terrain. Difficulties are compounded because security is at its worst since the US-led invasion in 2001. Under these circumstances, it would be almost impossible for elections to be free and fair with or without Lodin. His presence, however, will make matters even worse.

The other, equally important issue for Abdullah was a change in Afghanistan’s constitution in order to create the post of Prime Minister, with Abdullah or one of his key supporters could be appointed to that position. This is often kept under wraps by the media and its euphemism "a power-sharing deal".

The negotiations are caught up in ethnic politics. Karzai belongs to the Pashtun ethnic group to which most of the Taliban also belong. Abdullah gets most of his support from the Tajik, the second-largest ethnic group. Together, Pashtuns and Tajiks make up more than three-quarters of Afghanistan’s population.

Since the constitution was drafted, the main point of contention between the two ethnic factions has been over strong presidential government. As Pashtuns make up 40 percent of Afghanistan's population, versus the Tajiks' 30 percent, % of the population, a Pashtun President is almost guaranteed.

This would be balanced if a Parliament-appointed prime minister was established.
Even though Pashtuns make up a larger share of the population, they are more widely dispersed across the country. This dilutes their political power, as Pashtuns almost always receive a smaller percentage of seats in the Parliament compared to their numerical supremacy than they would if they weren’t as widely distributed. This gap was evident in Afghanistan’s first Parliament, elected in 2005, where a Tajik narrowly beat a Pashtun to become the Speaker.

Under these circumstances, Karzai’s insistence upon not sacking Lodin is both naïve and politically disastrous. However, Abdullah’s insistence upon forcing a constitutional change before an election is equally naïve. Hours before Abdullah’s announcement, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton noted that the legitimacy of the election would not be questioned because of Abdullah’s departure. This is a clear signal to Abdullah that, in the next week before the run-off, there simply is not enough time or patience left for the West to sit down with Karzai and persuade him to meet Abdullah’s demands.

However, Abdullah represents a large segment of the Afghan population. His departure from the election is surely going to rouse their discontent with not just Karzai but also the US. This is dangerous for Washington: most of Karzai’s support comes from areas that are hostile towards the US but Abdullah is backed by regions that are for the most part pro-US. If the situation is not handled delicately by the West, it risks losing the support of the majority of Afghanistan’s population and plunging the relatively safer areas into insecurity as well.

A compromise solution is urgently needed to solve this crisis. If Karzai were to meet half of Abdullah’s demands and postpone the other half for after the election, chaos might be averted. Removing Lodin and other officials from their posts would make the elections more acceptable to the populace. This in turn would give both Karzai and Abdullah enough leverage to change the constitution.

Under the current circumstances, even though Abdullah has refrained from asking his supporters to boycott the election or come out to streets, the situation remains critical. The West might have to step in once again to salvage the peace.

Afghanistan: Abdullah Withdraws, US Political Plan Collapses

Emergency Analysis: Josh Shahryar on Afghanistan's Political Turmoil
Understanding “Mr Obama’s Wars”: Five Essential Analyses on Afghanistan and Pakistan

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Confused by the political developments in Afghanistan as challenger Abdullah Abdullah pulls out of a runoff against President Hamid Karzai? All you have to do is go back and check Enduring America's four-sentence guide from mid-October to elections, fraud, and politics:

1. Karzai accepts runoff. Check.

OK, no problem there. Karzai --- who may or may not have rigged a first-round election in which almost 30 percent of his votes were thrown out, who may or may not be presiding over a Government better known for corruption rather than financial management, whose brother may or may not be a) rich from said corruption b) tied into Afghan drug money c) a CIA agent --- has been been playing nice since he was told by US officials to go through a second-round show of democracy.

2. US declares satisfaction. President Obama to reporters, “President Karzai, as well as the other candidates have shown that they have the interests of the Afghan people at heart.” Check. Still OK there, Washington has made it known that, whatever happens, there will be a run-off to give legitimacy to a Karzai Government.

3. Closest challenger Abdullah Abdullah accepts runoff. Check. Oops! Looks like the plan just came unstuck because....

4. Coalition government with both Karzai and Abdullah to be formed. Wait for it — it will come soon after the 7 November run-off. Double Oops! The two Afghan political figures could not come to a resolution of their political issues and differences. This was always going to be the tricky part as, even with a prominent position, Abdullah would be playing second fiddle to Karzai.

5. US then declares troop escalation. Could be a pre-Christmas present for all of us. Hold that present, folks. President Obama, who has been delaying a decision on troop levels until the new Afghan Government could be declared, now has his problems compounded. He's not very happy with a military boost amidst political turmoil but, given the accusations of "ditherer" from a loud minority in the US who define success as more American soldiers, he will be under intense pressure.