Tales From The Presidential Campaign

Election Talk: The Republican Alamo

Some Republicans were talking up a slight bump in the polls this weekend for McCain-Palin --- translation: instead of being 5-6 points down in national surveys, they were "only" 4-5 points down.

FiveThirtyEight.com, excellent as always, put this in perspective by noting that to overhaul Obama, McCain would have to keep picking up a half-point each day, every day to the election. There's a more important point, however: at this point, it's not a question of the national poll but the numbers in each "swing" state.

So, to get to the nitty-gritty, McCain's limited national gain plays out at state level with a movement back to him in places like West Virginia and Indiana, which now lean back to the Republicans. These states, however, should never have been in question --- at least in any scenario where the GOP has a chance of winning --- they should have been "safe". So, to be blunt, McCain is only clawing back a bit of his lost territory.

Contrast this with the important "swing" areas. McCain-Palin - in my humble opinion - have no hope of taking any state that went Democratic in 2004. In three states which were seen as possible Republican gains only a month ago --- Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota -- Obama is up 10-12 points in polling.

That means McCain has to hold all but two (and possibly all but one) states that Bush took four years ago. But in eight of these, McCain is trailing by a clear margin in three (Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico) and down 2-4 points in five (Missouri, North Carolina, Nevada, Florida, and Ohio). And this doesn't even include Indiana and, bizarrely, North Dakota which could still be in play.

The media line over the last 48 hours is that the Republicans may make a last grandstand effort by throwing resources into Pennsylvania to pray that state away from the Democrats. If true, this is either desperation or mad genius, as Obama is up 11 points in latest polling.

More likely is the scenario that the Republicans are going to the Alamo - a last, frantic defense to keep the eight states listed above. But there are tales that they have given up on Colorado, which means it comes down to clinging onto the other seven.

Possible? In a politics of "never say never", sure. But you do know what happened to the defenders of the Alamo.

Election Talk: The Backfire of the Culture Wars

The immediate furour over Colin Powell's weekend endorsement of Barack Obama missed a key dimension of the reasons for his decision. The issue was not just Obama's "proving himself" or, conversely, the inexperience and weaknesses of Sarah Palin but the Republican strategy of pitting "good Americans" against others:

Now, I understand what politics is all about.  I know how you can go after one another, and that's good.  But I think this goes too far....I'm also troubled by, not what Senator McCain says, but what members of the party say. And it is permitted to be said such things as, "Well, you know that Mr. Obama is a Muslim." Well, the correct answer is, he is not a Muslim, he's a Christian.  He's always been a Christian.  But the really right answer is, what if he is?  Is there something wrong with being a Muslim in this country? The answer's no, that's not America.  Is there something wrong with some seven-year-old Muslim-American kid believing that he or she could be president?  Yet, I have heard senior members of my own party drop the suggestion, "He's a Muslim and he might be associated terrorists." This is not the way we should be doing it in America.

I feel strongly about this particular point because of a picture I saw in a magazine.  It was a photo essay about troops who are serving in Iraq and Afghanistan.  And one picture at the tail end of this photo essay was of a mother in Arlington Cemetery, and she had her head on the headstone of her son's grave.  And as the picture focused in, you could see the writing on the headstone.  And it gave his awards--Purple Heart, Bronze Star--showed that he died in Iraq, gave his date of birth, date of death.  He was 20 years old. And then, at the very top of the headstone, it didn't have a Christian cross, it didn't have the Star of David, it had crescent and a star of the Islamic faith.  And his name was Kareem Rashad Sultan Khan, and he was an American. He was born in New Jersey.  He was 14 years old at the time of 9/11, and he waited until he can go serve his country, and he gave his life.

I still Powell has a lot to answer for, notably his failure to stand up to others in the Bush Administration and stop the mad quest for executive power and a war in Iraq, but I think his words should be a prominent reply to the political poison of "us" v. "them", a poison which has not only threatened electoral politics but wreaked havoc in the name of US foreign policy.

And there are other encouraging signs. Sarah Palin has finally apologised -- well, kind of - for her  praise of "pro-American" parts of the United States (presumably those favouring the Republicans) and implication that other areas were just a bit suspect. Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann's call for her colleagues to be investigated and classifed by the media as "pro-American" and "anti-American" has given a boost to her opponent both in finances and polling.

American fingers crossed that this continues.

Election Talk: McCain's Fightback- An Unexpected Endorsement

"Al-Qaeda will have to support McCain in the coming election," said a commentary posted Monday on the extremist Web site al-Hesbah, which is closely linked to the terrorist group. It said the Arizona Republican would continue the "failing march of his predecessor," President Bush.

Monday Buffet: From the US Elections to New Old Cold Wars

A General's Endorsement

 

I must admit Colin Powell's ringing call, made on the flagship Sunday TV programme Meet the Press, surprised me. I was particularly shocked by his remark, "I was...concerned at the selection of Governor Palin....Now that we have had a chance to watch her for some seven weeks, I don't believe she's ready to be president of the United States."

 

However, Watching America can now reveal the reason behind the former Secretary of State's decision to back Obama. Last week Powell appeared with Palin on the legendary US game show "The $800 Billion (formerly $25,000) Pyramid". Watching America has obtained an exclusive clip.

 

Funtime with Colin

 

This morning's Today programme on BBC radio added a needed giggle to the serious political events. First, just after 6 a.m., our favourite US correspondent Justin Webb offered the insight that Powell's endorsement might be "marginal" because many right-wing Republicans distrusted the former General and added that many Democrats who opposed the Iraq War might not be persuaded because of Powell's role in the Bush Administration.

 

Well done, Justin! Right-wing Republicans wouldn't vote for Obama-Biden if Todd Palin, George W. Bush, and the Lord Jesus endorsed the Democrats, and any anti-war Democrat is highly unlikely to be backing the GOP. The groups to watch, of course, are moderate Republicans who are unhappy with their Presidential ticket and the sizeable group of "independent" voters who will likely be decisive in this contest.

 

The anchor of Today, James Naughtie, righted the BBC ship with an entertaining grilling of Emily Walker, a Republican spokeswoman who gave a dismissive wave of her hand to Powell's statement. She explained that his words "would not change the direction of this campaign". Quite right --- as Naughtie pointed out in a subsequent question, the polls are always running away from the Republicans.

 

President Obama: Will It Make a Difference?

 

Readers have pointed Watching America to two excellent but divergent views of the next Administration. Mark Danner seizes optimism from the last eight years of despair, "It is the very unpopularity of Bush and the atmosphere of profound disillusion and crisis that helped produce a Democratic challenger whose election—however remarkable his talents, however stirring his eloquence, however bright his promise—would constitute a true revolution." Mike Davis, however, worries that the Obama team may just follow its predecessor into the abyss: "It is bitterly ironic, but, I suppose, historically predictable that a presidential campaign millions of voters have supported for its promise to end the war in Iraq has now mortgaged itself to a "tougher than McCain" escalation of a hopeless conflict in Afghanistan and the Pakistani tribal frontier. In the best of outcomes, the Democrats will merely trade one brutal, losing war for another. In the worst case, their failed policies may set the stage for the return of Cheney and Rove, or their even more sinister avatars."

 

It's the New Old Cold War (Chapter 438)

 

Far from content with several Wars on Terror/Iraq/Afghanistan, Strategic Forecasting reaches back for an earlier Battle to the End of Time. (This, of course, is entirely unconnected from the suspicision that Stratfor tries to pick at least $99 a year from your pocket by making you very, very worried.)

 

Conveniently re-framing the link of Saddam Hussein to terrorism, Reva Bhalla puts the Kremlin in the seat of Master Planner Wanting to Kill All of Us: "The potential revival of Russian state-sponsored terrorism is most likely still early in its development. But one should not forget that after the Cold War, many experts proclaimed a 'New World Order' in which terrorism had become a thing of the past — and U.S. intelligence capabilities atrophied as a result. About a decade later, the 9/11 attacks caught the United States off guard and brought into being a new era of Islamist terrorism that is only now declining. With state-sponsored terrorism back on the horizon, the time has come to recognize the changing face of terrorism beyond the post-9/11 world."

 

Mentioning Bhalla's analysis is a convenient way to welcome back our old friend John Bolton, who is also finding solace --- amidst the "appeasement" of Iran, North Korea, Venezuela, etc. --- in a new old campaign:

 

"Ultimately, what most risks "provoking" Moscow is not Western resolve but Western weakness. This is where the real weight of history lies. Accordingly, attitude adjustment in Moscow first requires attitude adjustment in NATO capitals, and quickly, before Moscow's swaggering leaders draw the wrong lessons from their recent successes....Such an approach will not endanger Western security but enhance it. And if Russia takes offense, better to know that now than later, when the stakes for all concerned may be much higher."

Tuesday Buffet: Obama, Khomeini, and the Chavez-McDonald's War

A Footnote to the Election Talk: The Sublime....

I neglected to say in Monday's Buffet that, in contrast to some of the media witterings over the Colin Powell endorsement, Juan Cole's detailed reading is almost as effective as the former Secretary of State's simultaneous promotion of the Democrats and demolition of McCain-Palin.  A reader, noting the Cole column, helpfully adds that Powell's endorsement is just as valuable in offsetting Obama's supposed weaknesses, namely, his lack of foreign policy experience, as it is in pushing Obama's positives to uncommitted voters.

And The Ridiculous: Barack Obama- The Next Ayatollah Khomeini A reader  points us to Baron Boddissey's Islam-bashing website Gates of Vienna. There you can find this masterpiece, "Understanding Obama: The Making of a Fuehrer":

I must confess I was not impressed by Sen. Barack Obama from the first time I saw him. At first I was It is surreal to see the level of hysteria in his admirers. This phenomenon is unprecedented in American politics. Women scream and swoon during his speeches. They yell and shout to Obama, "I love you." Never did George Washington, Abraham Lincoln, Franklin Roosevelt. Martin Luther King Jr. or Ronald Reagan arouse so much raw emotion. Despite their achievements, none of them was raised to the rank of Messiah. The Illinois senator has no history of service to the country. He has done nothing outstanding except giving promises of change and hyping his audience with hope. It's only his words, not his achievements that is causing this much uproar.

When cheering for someone turns into adulation, something is wrong. Excessive adulation is indicative of a personality cult....During 1979, when the Iranians were tired of the dictatorial regime of the late Shah, they embraced Khomeini, not because they wanted Islam, but because he promised them change. The word in the street was, "anything is better than the Shah." They found their error when it was too late.... Listening to Obama... it harkens back to when I was younger and I used to watch Khomeini, how he would excite the crowd and they'd come to their feet and scream and yell.

And the Surreal: "I Can See Russia in My Name" "Publius" notes Monday's story in The Times of London, "I Can Live with Defeat, Says McCain", and comments, "In the guise of America's "who cares who came second", to talk about defeat tells me his internal polling is really bad news." Sprinkling a bit of salt on the wound, he takes on McCain's declaration that "Mr Obama was seeking to buy the election with his massive fundraising and spending" with the rejoinder, "The chutzpah of 'Obama's buying the election' when McCain did not avail himself of McCain-Feingold, the law [on campaign finance reform that] he championed, is just too much."   However, it is Publius's afterthought that concerns me, either for his well-being or that of America under GOP leadership: "If the name of McCain's VP is spelled S. Palin, try removing the P and inserting a T."  

Saying the Unsayable? The US and Iran Flynt Leverett, who handled Middle Eastern affairs for the National Security Council, and Hillary Mann Leverett, a National Security Council staffer who was involved in the "unofficial" dialogue with Iran over Afghanistan between 2001 and 2003, propose a US-Iranian "Grand Bargain". Contending  that "as a result of a dysfunctional Iran policy, among other foreign policy blunders, the American position in the region is currently under greater strain than at any point since the end of the Cold War", they argue:

It is clearly time for a fundamental change of course in the U.S. approach to the Islamic Republic. By fundamental change, we do not mean incremental, step-by-step engagement with Tehran, or simply trying to manage the Iranian challenge in the region more adroitly than the Bush administration has done. Rather, we mean the pursuit of thoroughgoing strategic rapprochement between the two nations.

Update: Hugo Chavez v. Ronald McDonald A reader from Alabama offers this nostalgic reflection on the Venezuelan Government's temporary shutdown of McDonald's outlets:

In 1989 there was a general strike in Venezuela. Really eerie to have the entire city absolutely silent on a weekday- the only traffic were occasional security vehicles. I played city editor from home because we were allowed only a certain number of workers- two reporters and photographers or something like that- until after daytime working hours.

McDonald's and, I believe, certain banks were just about the only ones to remain open in defiance of the strike. The banks I understood because of bankers' political beliefs, but McDonald's wasn't making any friends. Remember, though, that McDonald's at least then was a relatively pricey meal there.

Goon squads ... er, labor committees made sure people stayed closed and ended up at one of the McD's in Caracas. A garbage can ended up going through the plate glass and, by the end of the day, there was a tank and soldiers in the parking lot protecting the restaurant. Very weird.

McD's in Caracas, unlike Burger King or Tropi Burger, was different than your normal fast-food experience. It always was spotless, the food fast and fresh. And the wholesome kids who worked there -- it was like stepping into a television ad! You expected them to break out into song. Clearly, pay must have been decent and upwardly mobile student-types were their main counter help (janitorial, of course, was another story). They were probably all the Venezuelan equivalent of the College Republican Club and the Future Business Leaders of America.

Anyway, McDonald's always was crowded. Before and after the strike.

Monday Buffet: From the US Elections to New Old Cold Wars

A General's Endorsement

 

I must admit Colin Powell's ringing call, made on the flagship Sunday TV programme Meet the Press, surprised me. I was particularly shocked by his remark, "I was...concerned at the selection of Governor Palin....Now that we have had a chance to watch her for some seven weeks, I don't believe she's ready to be president of the United States."

 

However, Enduring America can now reveal the reason behind the former Secretary of State's decision to back Obama. Last week Powell appeared with Palin on the legendary US game show "The $800 Billion (formerly $25,000) Pyramid". Enduring America has obtained an exclusive clip.

 

Funtime with Colin

 

This morning's Today programme on BBC radio added a needed giggle to the serious political events. First, just after 6 a.m., our favourite US correspondent Justin Webb offered the insight that Powell's endorsement might be "marginal" because many right-wing Republicans distrusted the former General and added that many Democrats who opposed the Iraq War might not be persuaded because of Powell's role in the Bush Administration.

 

Well done, Justin! Right-wing Republicans wouldn't vote for Obama-Biden if Todd Palin, George W. Bush, and the Lord Jesus endorsed the Democrats, and any anti-war Democrat is highly unlikely to be backing the GOP. The groups to watch, of course, are moderate Republicans who are unhappy with their Presidential ticket and the sizeable group of "independent" voters who will likely be decisive in this contest.

 

The anchor of Today, James Naughtie, righted the BBC ship with an entertaining grilling of Emily Walker, a Republican spokeswoman who gave a dismissive wave of her hand to Powell's statement. She explained that his words "would not change the direction of this campaign". Quite right --- as Naughtie pointed out in a subsequent question, the polls are always running away from the Republicans.

 

President Obama: Will It Make a Difference?

 

Readers have pointed Watching America to two excellent but divergent views of the next Administration. Mark Danner seizes optimism from the last eight years of despair, "It is the very unpopularity of Bush and the atmosphere of profound disillusion and crisis that helped produce a Democratic challenger whose election—however remarkable his talents, however stirring his eloquence, however bright his promise—would constitute a true revolution." Mike Davis, however, worries that the Obama team may just follow its predecessor into the abyss: "It is bitterly ironic, but, I suppose, historically predictable that a presidential campaign millions of voters have supported for its promise to end the war in Iraq has now mortgaged itself to a "tougher than McCain" escalation of a hopeless conflict in Afghanistan and the Pakistani tribal frontier. In the best of outcomes, the Democrats will merely trade one brutal, losing war for another. In the worst case, their failed policies may set the stage for the return of Cheney and Rove, or their even more sinister avatars."

 

It's the New Old Cold War (Chapter 438)

 

Far from content with several Wars on Terror/Iraq/Afghanistan, Strategic Forecasting reaches back for an earlier Battle to the End of Time. (This, of course, is entirely unconnected from the suspicision that Stratfor tries to pick at least $99 a year from your pocket by making you very, very worried.)

 

Conveniently re-framing the link of Saddam Hussein to terrorism, Reva Bhalla puts the Kremlin in the seat of Master Planner Wanting to Kill All of Us: "The potential revival of Russian state-sponsored terrorism is most likely still early in its development. But one should not forget that after the Cold War, many experts proclaimed a 'New World Order' in which terrorism had become a thing of the past — and U.S. intelligence capabilities atrophied as a result. About a decade later, the 9/11 attacks caught the United States off guard and brought into being a new era of Islamist terrorism that is only now declining. With state-sponsored terrorism back on the horizon, the time has come to recognize the changing face of terrorism beyond the post-9/11 world."

 

Mentioning Bhalla's analysis is a convenient way to welcome back our old friend John Bolton, who is also finding solace --- amidst the "appeasement" of Iran, North Korea, Venezuela, etc. --- in a new old campaign:

 

"Ultimately, what most risks "provoking" Moscow is not Western resolve but Western weakness. This is where the real weight of history lies. Accordingly, attitude adjustment in Moscow first requires attitude adjustment in NATO capitals, and quickly, before Moscow's swaggering leaders draw the wrong lessons from their recent successes....Such an approach will not endanger Western security but enhance it. And if Russia takes offense, better to know that now than later, when the stakes for all concerned may be much higher."

Friday Buffet: From the Campaign Trail to Iraq

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WATCH-LIST

Four Signs That This Race is Over

1. Joe the Plumber Goes Down the Drain

On Wednesday night, John McCain's economic shtick was that he was the President who would look out for "Joe the Plumber", a working-class fella from Ohio who apparently would not be able to buy his business under Barack Obama's tax proposals. Joe Wurzelbacher instantly became the newest celebrity of Campaign 2008

Unfortunately for McCain, the New York Times became more than a fan Lewis, one of the leaders of the 1960s Civil Rights Movement, actually wrote:

Mr. Wurzelbacher had never held a plumber’s license, which is required in Toledo and several surrounding municipalities....His full name is Samuel J. Wurzelbacher. And he owes back taxes, too, public records show. The premise of his complaint to Mr. Obama about taxes may also be flawed, according to tax analysts. Contrary to what Mr. Wurzelbacher asserted and Mr. McCain echoed, neither his personal taxes nor those of the business where he works are likely to rise if Mr. Obama’s tax plan were to go into effect, they said.

[OTHER FAMOUS JOES WHO COULD SAVE MCCAIN: Joe Pesci, Joe Louis, Joe and the Volcano, Joe Mama, Joe 90, and (hat tip to Liam Kennedy) Joe Soap]

2. One Last Wild Cultural Swing

Following on from the "Culture Wars" theme: FiveThirtyEight.com took the line, immediately after the debate, that McCain lost his early advantage in the debate when he took a pop at Congressman John Lewis of Georgia.

A man I admire and respect -- I've written about him -- Congressman John Lewis, an American hero, made allegations that Sarah Palin and I were somehow associated with the worst chapter in American history, segregation, deaths of children in church bombings, George Wallace. That, to me, was so hurtful. And, Senator Obama, you didn't repudiate those remarks.

So, the issue is not that the McCain-Palin rhetoric with their question, "Who is Barack Obama?" and the answer, "Palling around with terrorists....This is not a man who sees America like you and I see America,”, was prompting crowd responses of "traitor" and "terrorist...kill him".

Instead, it's Big John who is the victim? Hmmm....

Here's what

What I am seeing reminds me too much of another destructive period in American history. Sen. McCain and Gov. Palin are sowing the seeds of hatred and division, and there is no need for this hostility in our political discourse."

George Wallace [segregationist Governor of Alabama and Presidential candidate in 1968 and 1972] never threw a bomb. He never fired a gun, but he created the climate and the conditions that encouraged vicious attacks against innocent Americans who were simply trying to exercise their constitutional rights. Because of this atmosphere of hate, four little girls were killed on Sunday morning when a church was bombed in Birmingham, Alabama.

Well, the way I read it, Lewis was not accusing McCain and Palin of the crimes of the 1960s. Instead, he was warning that character attacks on Obama with the clear message that he is "un-American" and the (unstated) reminder that he is a black un-American are not exactly conductive to good-neighbourly relations . If the language was over the political line (and the Obama campaign quickly pointed this out), Lewis' allegation doesn't stand up to the Republicans' own guilt-by-association tactics.

It's not my reading that matters, however, but the reaction of the American public. And, judging by the hysteria coming from Charles Krauthammer in the Washington Post, the GOP's last cultural gambit --- please vote for us because we've been terribly wronged --- has failed.

2A. One Last Wild Cultural Swing --- UPDATE

Charles Krauthammer fades away screaming as Saturday Night Live features "the crazy McCain-Palin Rally Lady".

3. The First Swallows of the Electoral Autumn

Leave aside the snap polls that showed --- even on Fox --- Obama "winning" the debate by a 2:1 margin amongst undecideds. FiveThirtyEight.com has some dramatic numbers on Obama's margins in five states allowing early voting:

                       % Voting Early       Margin amongst Early Voters              Margin in Polls

New Mexico         10%                            Obama +23%                             Obama  +6%
Ohio                    12%                            Obama +18%                             Obama  +4%
Georgia                18%                            Obama +6%                              McCain +11%
Iowa                     14%                           Obama +34%                             Obama +10%
North Carolina         5%                           Obama +34%                             McCain  +5% 

Even if you pop a couple of grains of salt on these numbers, say, that pro-Obama folks are quicker to get to the mailbox, Obama's lead --- even in what should be "safe" Republican state of Georgia and North Carolina, which McCain has to win to have any hope --- is ominous if you're a Big John backer.

4. Crossing to the Other Side

The Times of London --- that's right, the staunch defender of Thatcherism in the 1980s, flagship newspaper of Rupert Murdoch --- endorses Obama. (By the way, so did the Washington Post.)

A Necessary Correction

 

JM writes from London:

 

"As a fervent reader of your Journal, I must complain about the glaring omission in the Sarah Palin Flowchart (Watching America, 16 October). You forgot THE WINK that tells the fellow travellers that 'I've got this one right' and the rest of us, 'What am I doing here?'"

 

Happy to set the record straight, JM. Consider the flowchart amended with a special SP wink aimed straight at you. 

 

TODAY'S IRAQ CELEBRATIONS

 

Michael Gerson, former Bush speechwriter (and thus one of the scribblers behind the American adventure in Iraq), is the latest columnist to give General/King David Petraeus a big kiss:

 

Petraeus may be uniquely capable of convincing our friends in the region of America's long-term commitment, precisely because he didn't leave Iraq to its fate -- because he is the man who stayed.

 

In the Times of London, Richard Beeston has the classic line, "Without the distractions of the bombings and shootings, it is easier to see Iraq for what it really is." Which is bit like asking, "Apart from the shooting, Mrs Lincoln, how did you like the play?"

 

Meanwhile...

 

"More than 1,300 Christian families have fled [Mosul] and more than 13 Christians have been killed in the past two weeks."