Monday
Oct262009
Latest from Iran (26 October): After the Fair
Monday, October 26, 2009 at 19:25
NEW Latest Iran Video/Translation: Karroubi on Events in the Iran Media Fair
NEW Iran’s Political Confusion: Khamenei, Ahmadinejad, and the Nuclear Agreement
NEW Iran: Turning Bombings into an Alliance with Pakistan
NEW Video: The Media Fair Demonstrations (25 October)
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2105 GMT: Mehdi Karroubi's website Tagheer is back on-line (see 1438 GMT).
1945 GMT: We cannot corroborate but it is being reported that flyers of Karroubi's webcast statement (see separate entry) are being put up across Tehran.
1935 GMT: Families of political prisoners have announced that they will demonstrate on Wednesday, protesting the continued imprisonment of their relatives. If the authorities do not heed the protest, the families will continue demonstrations and begin a mass hunger strike.
1925 GMT: Kalemeh, the website associated with Mir Hossein Mousavi, has published its account of the appearance of Mousavi advisor Alireza Beheshti at the Tehran Media Fair yesterday. Beheshti was with his wife and daughter, as well as supporters, when they were surrounded by 50 to 60 people who began yelling loudly against Beheshti. Kalemeh invokes the memory of Beheshti's father, the assassinated Ayatollah, claiming that many were reminded of the Mujahedin-e-Khalq's chant of “Down with Beheshti”. (English summary on Mousavi Facebook page)
1515 GMT: Radio Farda is reporting that 50 striking workers at Ahvaz Pipe Mills were arrested today. Employees have not paid for 10-14 months.
1445 GMT: Mediawatch. Credit to the Los Angeles Times, The New York Times, and Time magazine for picking up on the internal dynamics affecting Iran's decision on the enrichment deal, with varying degrees of success.
Borzou Daragahi in the LA Times is the most effective, noting Ali Larijani's criticism of the proposal. He conflates this, however, with a statement from another high-ranking member of Parliament "close to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad", Alaeddin Boroujerdi --- Boroujerdi's shot fits more with moves by the Iranian Government to get better terms, while Larijani's is a direct attack against the negotiations.
David Sanger in The New York Times opens with a reference to Larijani but gets distracted by the Western perspective --- "even some of President Obama’s aides are wary that Iran is setting a trap". Andrew Lee Butters in Time asks the key question, "Why the delay?", but struggles to understand the internal situation.
1438 GMT: Coincidence? While Karroubi seizes the political initiative, his on-line newssite, Tagheer, is down.
1435 GMT: We've posted the video of Mehdi Karroubi, with English translation, drawing lessons from the events at the Iran Media Fair: "We will not retreat."
1355 GMT: A Signal? State television is quoting the Supreme Leader's blame upon foreign agents, seeking Shiite-Sunni conflict, for recent violence: "The bloody actions being committed in some Islamic countries, including Iraq, Pakistan and in some parts of the country (Iran), are aimed at creating division between the Shiites and Sunnis.....Those who carry out these terrorist actions are directly or indirectly foreign agents."
This is a far from surprising statement for Ayatollah Khamenei, but the timing, given our current thoughts about a move to cut off engagement with the West, may be significant.
1345 GMT: Playing for Time. Amidst what could be an extraordinary political story in Iran over the enrichment deal (see analysis in separate entry), Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki offered a very ordinary, non-commital statement today, "Iran's decision on the provision of necessary fuel for the Tehran reactor will be announced in the next few days. There are two options on the table ... either to buy it or to give part of our fuel for further processing abroad."
0930 GMT: We've posted an analysis from Iran, courtesy of Iran Review, pointing to Tehran's move for closer relations with Pakistan in the aftermath of the Sistan-Baluchestan bombings.
0735 GMT: The Story to Watch Today. If we're right, Iran may be on the verge of one of the most important political decisions --- with effects inside and outside the country --- since 12 June. Weekend statements by Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani and Mohammad Reza Bahonar point to the Supreme Leader's intervention to block the Vienna nuclear agreement and engagement with the US. If this happens, the even bigger effect could be on the legimitacy of President Ahmadinejad. We've got the story in a separate entry.
0720 GMT: National Unity Latest. No words for days since the National Unity Plan supposedly went to the Supreme Leader for his consideration. Mizan Press has a useful summary of the political situation, without offering any new details.
0710 GMT: Nuclear Hype. While Iranian state media plays up Washington's alleged backed of "terrorist" organisations, "Western" media --- with the considerable assistance of unnamed Government officials and diplomats --- plays up Iran's imminent Bomb.
In this case, the drum-thumper is Reuters and "imminent" is 18 months. There's no evidence in the article, only the bland assertion of one of the officials, "It's not a formal assessment or formal agreement but a rough agreement that we can all work with more or less."
Actually, "imminent" is not so imminent in this case, perhaps indicating a bit of breathing space for Obama-led engagement as Tehran considers an enrichment deal --- previous media spin has been of an Iranian bomb within a year. Still, we offer this naive question:
Given that Iran cannot even enrich uranium to 20 percent for a medical research reactor --- the technical reality behind Tehran's consideration of third-party enrichment --- wouldn't this indicate obstacles to enrichment of uranium to the 90 percent needed for a weapon?
0650 GMT: More Finger-Pointing at US over Jundallah. Last week La Stampa and Enduring America featured the comments of the retired head of Pakistan's intelligence service, Lieutenant Hamid Gul, linking the Baluch insurgent group Jundallah and last week's deadly suicide bombing to American intelligence services.
Now Iranian state media are headlining the assertion of the former chief of staff of the Pakistani army, General Mirza Aslam Beg: "Helping the Rigi terrorist group launch terrorist attacks against Iranian civilians and military personnel in the border regions is one of the main strategies pursued by the US to confront Iran."
The Islamic Republic News Agency is featuring the interview, which also includes Beg's praise for "the positive steps Iran has taken in Afghanistan and its all-out cooperation with Pakistan", and Press TV is also pushing it.
0630 GMT: The excitement and uncertainty stirred up by Mehdi Karroubi's appearance on Friday at the Tehran Media Fair continued on Sunday, as rumors swirled around possible Green demonstrations and Government reactions. The most prominent story in the end, given that Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mohammad Khatami did not follow up Karroubi's attendance, concerned Mousavi advisor Alireza Beheshti at the Fair. The cycle of Friday --- arrival, chants of Green support, a response from those backing the Government, Behesti's departure, and opposition celebration of another symbolic victory --- was repeated.
The events of the last 72 hours are now getting some attention outside Iran. Ramin Mostaghim and Borzou Daragahi, writing in The Los Angeles Times, pick up on the Karroubi episode and also note earlier stories such as the political back-and-forth over the "Kayhan guestbook" (see our updates throughout last week).
NEW Iran’s Political Confusion: Khamenei, Ahmadinejad, and the Nuclear Agreement
NEW Iran: Turning Bombings into an Alliance with Pakistan
NEW Video: The Media Fair Demonstrations (25 October)
Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis
2105 GMT: Mehdi Karroubi's website Tagheer is back on-line (see 1438 GMT).1945 GMT: We cannot corroborate but it is being reported that flyers of Karroubi's webcast statement (see separate entry) are being put up across Tehran.
1935 GMT: Families of political prisoners have announced that they will demonstrate on Wednesday, protesting the continued imprisonment of their relatives. If the authorities do not heed the protest, the families will continue demonstrations and begin a mass hunger strike.
1925 GMT: Kalemeh, the website associated with Mir Hossein Mousavi, has published its account of the appearance of Mousavi advisor Alireza Beheshti at the Tehran Media Fair yesterday. Beheshti was with his wife and daughter, as well as supporters, when they were surrounded by 50 to 60 people who began yelling loudly against Beheshti. Kalemeh invokes the memory of Beheshti's father, the assassinated Ayatollah, claiming that many were reminded of the Mujahedin-e-Khalq's chant of “Down with Beheshti”. (English summary on Mousavi Facebook page)
1515 GMT: Radio Farda is reporting that 50 striking workers at Ahvaz Pipe Mills were arrested today. Employees have not paid for 10-14 months.
1445 GMT: Mediawatch. Credit to the Los Angeles Times, The New York Times, and Time magazine for picking up on the internal dynamics affecting Iran's decision on the enrichment deal, with varying degrees of success.
Borzou Daragahi in the LA Times is the most effective, noting Ali Larijani's criticism of the proposal. He conflates this, however, with a statement from another high-ranking member of Parliament "close to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad", Alaeddin Boroujerdi --- Boroujerdi's shot fits more with moves by the Iranian Government to get better terms, while Larijani's is a direct attack against the negotiations.
David Sanger in The New York Times opens with a reference to Larijani but gets distracted by the Western perspective --- "even some of President Obama’s aides are wary that Iran is setting a trap". Andrew Lee Butters in Time asks the key question, "Why the delay?", but struggles to understand the internal situation.
1438 GMT: Coincidence? While Karroubi seizes the political initiative, his on-line newssite, Tagheer, is down.
1435 GMT: We've posted the video of Mehdi Karroubi, with English translation, drawing lessons from the events at the Iran Media Fair: "We will not retreat."
1355 GMT: A Signal? State television is quoting the Supreme Leader's blame upon foreign agents, seeking Shiite-Sunni conflict, for recent violence: "The bloody actions being committed in some Islamic countries, including Iraq, Pakistan and in some parts of the country (Iran), are aimed at creating division between the Shiites and Sunnis.....Those who carry out these terrorist actions are directly or indirectly foreign agents."
This is a far from surprising statement for Ayatollah Khamenei, but the timing, given our current thoughts about a move to cut off engagement with the West, may be significant.
1345 GMT: Playing for Time. Amidst what could be an extraordinary political story in Iran over the enrichment deal (see analysis in separate entry), Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki offered a very ordinary, non-commital statement today, "Iran's decision on the provision of necessary fuel for the Tehran reactor will be announced in the next few days. There are two options on the table ... either to buy it or to give part of our fuel for further processing abroad."
0930 GMT: We've posted an analysis from Iran, courtesy of Iran Review, pointing to Tehran's move for closer relations with Pakistan in the aftermath of the Sistan-Baluchestan bombings.
0735 GMT: The Story to Watch Today. If we're right, Iran may be on the verge of one of the most important political decisions --- with effects inside and outside the country --- since 12 June. Weekend statements by Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani and Mohammad Reza Bahonar point to the Supreme Leader's intervention to block the Vienna nuclear agreement and engagement with the US. If this happens, the even bigger effect could be on the legimitacy of President Ahmadinejad. We've got the story in a separate entry.
0720 GMT: National Unity Latest. No words for days since the National Unity Plan supposedly went to the Supreme Leader for his consideration. Mizan Press has a useful summary of the political situation, without offering any new details.
0710 GMT: Nuclear Hype. While Iranian state media plays up Washington's alleged backed of "terrorist" organisations, "Western" media --- with the considerable assistance of unnamed Government officials and diplomats --- plays up Iran's imminent Bomb.
In this case, the drum-thumper is Reuters and "imminent" is 18 months. There's no evidence in the article, only the bland assertion of one of the officials, "It's not a formal assessment or formal agreement but a rough agreement that we can all work with more or less."
Actually, "imminent" is not so imminent in this case, perhaps indicating a bit of breathing space for Obama-led engagement as Tehran considers an enrichment deal --- previous media spin has been of an Iranian bomb within a year. Still, we offer this naive question:
Given that Iran cannot even enrich uranium to 20 percent for a medical research reactor --- the technical reality behind Tehran's consideration of third-party enrichment --- wouldn't this indicate obstacles to enrichment of uranium to the 90 percent needed for a weapon?
0650 GMT: More Finger-Pointing at US over Jundallah. Last week La Stampa and Enduring America featured the comments of the retired head of Pakistan's intelligence service, Lieutenant Hamid Gul, linking the Baluch insurgent group Jundallah and last week's deadly suicide bombing to American intelligence services.
Now Iranian state media are headlining the assertion of the former chief of staff of the Pakistani army, General Mirza Aslam Beg: "Helping the Rigi terrorist group launch terrorist attacks against Iranian civilians and military personnel in the border regions is one of the main strategies pursued by the US to confront Iran."
The Islamic Republic News Agency is featuring the interview, which also includes Beg's praise for "the positive steps Iran has taken in Afghanistan and its all-out cooperation with Pakistan", and Press TV is also pushing it.
0630 GMT: The excitement and uncertainty stirred up by Mehdi Karroubi's appearance on Friday at the Tehran Media Fair continued on Sunday, as rumors swirled around possible Green demonstrations and Government reactions. The most prominent story in the end, given that Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mohammad Khatami did not follow up Karroubi's attendance, concerned Mousavi advisor Alireza Beheshti at the Fair. The cycle of Friday --- arrival, chants of Green support, a response from those backing the Government, Behesti's departure, and opposition celebration of another symbolic victory --- was repeated.
The events of the last 72 hours are now getting some attention outside Iran. Ramin Mostaghim and Borzou Daragahi, writing in The Los Angeles Times, pick up on the Karroubi episode and also note earlier stories such as the political back-and-forth over the "Kayhan guestbook" (see our updates throughout last week).
tagged Alaeddin Boroujerdi, Ali Larijani, Alireza Beheshti, Andrew Butters, Borzou Daragahi, Borzou Daraghi, David Sanger, Hamid Gul, Jundallah, Jundullah, Kalemeh, Los Angeles Times, Manouchehr Mottaki, Mehdi Karroubi, Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mirza Aslam Beg, Mizan Press, Mohammad Reza Bahonar, National Unity Plan, New York Times, Radio Farda, Ramin Mostaghim, Reuters, Tagheer, Time Magazine in Middle East & Iran
Alaeddin Boroujerdi, Ali Larijani, Alireza Beheshti, Andrew Butters, Borzou Daragahi, Borzou Daraghi, David Sanger, Hamid Gul, Jundallah, Jundullah, Kalemeh, Los Angeles Times, Manouchehr Mottaki, Mehdi Karroubi, Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mirza Aslam Beg, Mizan Press, Mohammad Reza Bahonar, National Unity Plan, New York Times, Radio Farda, Ramin Mostaghim, Reuters, Tagheer, Time Magazine in Middle East & Iran
Reader Comments (14)
Scott,
I don't think the question is technical about being able to enrich beyond 20% its one of economics. The regime has stated this fact as well. It takes huge amounts of lowly enriched Uranium to produce a drastically smaller amount of more enriched Uranium. Iran is using the old URENCO designs which are cascade gas centrifuges and they require copious amounts of energy which is at premium in Iran right now. I would hedge a bet Iran is actually trying to get this all done for free because of the "goodwill" they are showing by finally dealing with he issue. It should be noted Iran is balking at the amount of 3.5% Uranium the West wants shipped out. The West wants to grab enough of the stock so Iran does not have enough for the bomb if they decide to go that way. I suspect the West would then want to control the amount of 20% enriched Uranium released back to Iran for the same obvious reasons.
thx
bill
Bill,
I think my naive question has to do more with the apparent inability of Iran to get significant stock up to 20 percent, rather than the further jump to military-grade uranium.
The possibility of Iran using this to get enrichment for "free" while continuing to build stock inside Iran had occurred to me, but I think the amount required to fuel the medical research facility (80 percent of current Iran stock under the Vienna proposal) would rule out a parallel push for the Bomb. I still take this issue at face value --- Iran has problems with enriched-uranium supply for civilian uses, let alone a military programme.
S.
[...] posted here: Latest from Iran (26 October): After the Fair | Enduring America Share and [...]
Iran may ship 'part' of its uranium abroad
Iran's foreign minister said Monday that Tehran may agree to ship part of its stockpile of low enriched uranium abroad for further enrichment in response to a U.N.-drafted plan.
Manouchehr Mottaki's comments are the first official indication that Iran may at least partly agree to a U.N.-drafted plan to ship much of its uranium to Russia for further enrichment and defuse the long running dispute over the country's nuclear program.
Mottaki said a final decision over the plan will come "soon."
http://tinyurl.com/yhnaoxp
after the assaullt of last friday, Karoubi explains that he has a contract with iranian people and faithfully, he will continue to fight and he is not afraid
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7CLJfmkEqYM
students of Shahroud university :
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7CLJfmkEqYM
Today at 9 am, 300 of Telecom employes in Shiraz demonstrated chanting :
"you, the governement of justice, shame on you, shame on you " !!
The begining of the unrest in iranian administrations ?? few days ago it was in Ahvaz, the employes of a sugar factory unpaid for 10 months !
According to "le Figaro", AIEA 's inspectors have met defected Mr Shahram Amiri , the famous iranian researcher, who had disappeared during his pilgrimage in Saoudi Arabia, in Dusseldorf, before going to Iran
@ Pakistan and Shiite-Sunni conflict
Pakistani police arrested 11 guards for illegally entering the country:
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=114163814
Yesterday two Sunni mullahs were banned from holding Friday prayers in Kurdistan (I have missed the link).
In any case this "republic" is playing on double standards since its beginning. Everyone who does not fit their agenda, is expendable:
http://www.iranian.com/main/blog/fred/expendable-moslems
Here you are the video of Ahvaz's Pipe Mills demonstration
http://www.facebook.com/video/video.php?v=1069916887085&ref=
RE: 0650 GMT Post:
Juan Cole states in the Baghdad Bombings article "Shaky revolutionary regimes like that of Baghdad often go to war to shore themselves up, and Iraq-Syria border clashes are not impossible."
I am beginning to have a bad feeling about this ala "Guns of August".
What if the Revolutionary Coup Leaders feel a conflict with the US is cure all for all their problems?
Pat Lang, a former Defense Intelligence Agency Director, posted the following on his blog 10/24/09:
"IAEA inspectors will have a look at the Qom enrichment site this weekend. Good. The surrepticious construction of this site badly undermined the position of those in the West who wish to find some way other than war to deal with Iran's nuclear program. The site is the wrong size to be useful in enriching fuel for an electricity program. It was hardened and placed inside a defended military base of the IRGC. The simplest explanation for all that is that it part of a system for acquisition of weapons grade uranium.
At the same time the Iranian government seems to be struggling with an internal decision as to whether or not to ship its present stock of low enrichment uranium to some foreign country for fabrication into fuel rods for electric plants. Why is there an internal struggle? Is it because there are two parties; 1- The party that wants eventually to produce nuclear weapons and 2- The party that wants cheap electric power and better relations with the rest of the world (us).
The clock is running. All options are still on the table. This is not about justice. It is about life and death for many."
And so a vain few can take the rest of us on their journey to darkness.
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad did not attend the media fair, ;)
Scott,
My reference was only about the 20% threshold and the power to do it. I don't think your question was naive because who trully knows what goes on in Iran. I do know power supply is a big issue and it is why I brought up the point. My reference to weapons grade uranium was about the West's efforts to get their hands on enough of the 3.5% stock to make it impossible for Iran to pursue a bomb.
Another angle revolves around the fact Iran has been very hesitant to ship the stock out. One could surmize their ideal goal is to keep the stock they have and in a "perceived" act of good will they will purchase stocks of 20% stock. They would then of course demand the right to enrich the stock they have if they choose so. This allows Iran to be good guy, resolve the shortage on medial isotopes, and keep the existing stock so if they desire they have enough for the bomb. This is why the West is so demanding regarding the stock being sent out. Its all about control.
Frankly I believe the only reason the talks got this far is because of the domestic crisis. I think the regime rightly surmized they cannot fight both at the same time. Any other time or place I think they would still be telling us to kiss their behinds. It is sort of sad because the world media has largely forgotten the protests in favor of the juicy nuke stories.
Thx
Bill
Bill,
I think the insight in your comments has been borne out by Iran's efforts to hold on to more than 20% of its stock in the latest negotiations. I don't that necessarily points to a military use for the uranium but the contest for "autonomy" between Iran and the West over any nuclear programme.
S.