UPDATED Iran: Rafsanjani Makes A Public Move with "Friendship Principles"

The Latest from Iran (4 October): Waiting for Developments

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UPDATE 7 October 1815 GMT: A specialist on Iranian politics adds to the debate, picking up our Tuesday item on Rafsanjani's comment to clerics, “In order to exit this crisis, we need 2 identify the ‘true culprits’ of divisions and provocations and confront them decisively.”

I think it's very important, when reading the tea leaves, to give  the larger picture. While your entry makes it sound like Rafsanjani is directing his comments at the government, reading the full report you link to makes it clear he doesn't mean the government. Rafsanjani emerged last week having pledged his support of [Ayatollah] Khamenei, and it is claimed he said that those who say there's a rift between him and Khamenei are trying to create disunity. The notion of unity in post-revolutionary Iran is more often than not used by the non-reformists as a way of indirectly criticizing the
opposition.


His talk you quote from was given to some of the clerics in the principalist faction of the parliament, and comes after he thanks them for their efforts. While the comment you quote by itself is vague enough to be something for everybody, considering his audience and his comments in the past 10 days, I think he's talking about the rumors of a rift between him
and the leader and also [denying] that he's on the side of the opposition.

UPDATE 0930 GMT: A top EA correspondent, working with information from inside Iran, is pessimistic about the impact of the Rafsanjani statement, “there seems to be very little enthusiasm over this latest communique”:

"Rafsanjani has driven many to exasperation with his infinite ambiguous language (if anything, yesterday's statement is a masterpiece in this art), and it looks like his main aim, as in July before and after his Friday prayers, seems to be that of getting his own people and the top reformists out of jail and keeping his family safe (his son Mehdi Hashemi is currently visiting Britain and his daughter Faezeh Hashemi is probably out of the country too); there is little more beyond this."

There are strong doubts that Rafsanjani will break the mould and come through with a solution that will really assuage Mousavi, Karroubi, and the Green crowd. Besides, and this is the question that keeps returning to the foreground, how much power does he really have? There is still the tendency to consider Rafsanjani as the real kingmaker, the one with the keys to all doors, the one that, given time to work it through, WILL eventually come up with the solution. My gut feeling is that Rafsanjani had this ability only in the past, and now we are past the stage that he will be listened to by all segments of the regime. He might be trying to portray himself as the deal maker he was in the past, but whether he is still so is very debatable.

UPDATE 5 October 0745 GMT: I've got back over Rafsanjani's statement, the interpretation of the EA contact who translated it, and helpful comments from our readers.

I lean towards the interpretation that Rafsanjani's reference to a "secret movement" (which I too literally translated as "mysterious" in the original post) is targeted more at challengers within the system, rather than the Green opposition. But, to ask a perhaps more important question, is this a head-on challenge to President Ahmadinejad, his political allies, and possibly the Revolutionary Guard? Has Rafsanjani "thrown down" with this statement or has he left himself enough room to say that he does not question the legitimacy of the Government but only seeks reform of its practices and policies?

The former President has posted a statement on his website, setting out these guidelines: 1) his "perfect" friendship and relationship with the Supreme Leader; 2) the pillars of the regime -- revolutionary principles, leadership, senior clerics (marjas), and the people; 3) a plan of national unity, pursued in conjunction with the Supreme Leader.

Rafsanjani adds that the only "reliable" source of news on the regime's politics is the public-relations office of the Expediency Council, which Rafsanjani heads. Most intriguing is Rafsanjani's claim of a "secret movement and its efforts to create divisions and weakness in the structure and organization of the Islamic Republic", a reference which could be to the Green Wave, to other agencies and individuals within the establishment, or both.

What can be clearly be said is that Rafsanjani, with the statement, is warning the Iranian public not to accept any "National Unity Plan" as valid unless it has his endorsement. What is still unclear is the content of the plan that the former President supports.

In another statement, Rafsanjani has asked the head of Iran's judiciary, Mohammad Sadegh Larijani, to investigate "accusations and slanders against my family" and anounce the results.

Iran: How a Non-Story about a Non-Jew Became Media Non-Sense

The Latest from Iran (7 October): Drama in Parliament?

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AHMADI: STILL NOT A JEW

UPDATE 1700 GMT: Silliness Upon Silliness. Press TV, probably inadvertently, highlights the idiocy of the Daily Telegraph report by adding...more idiocy. "A senior political analyst specializing in media affairs" says, "These reports are undoubtedly published in line with Israeli interests. In light of the Goldstone report, such reports are obviously designed to divert world attention from Israeli crimes against Palestinians and the use of weapons of mass destruction in the three-week attack on the Gaza Strip." Oh, yes, he adds that the report "was also meant to undermine" the Geneva talks on Iran's nuclear programme.

But out of the ridiculousness: I'm sending a note to CNN's Jim Clancy that "a senior media analyst" might be available for an interview.

You may have noticed that we haven't said much about the "Ahmadinejad is Jewish" allegation. Apart from the e-mail from a reader who found the whole episode a morning laugh, the only biggest significance was the journalistic a) fraud or b) innocent idiocy of The Daily Telegraph, which claimed an "exclusive" of a story that was eight months old (launched on the blog of Mehdi Khazali, the son of the late Ayatollah) and had already been discredited.

The story ran "hot" for 24 hours, with almost no one noticing this was an old non-story (even though The Daily Telegraph coyly said, low in the article, that Khazali had called for an investigation of Mr Ahmadinejad's roots"). First, the media tried to sell papers and boost viewer ratings with "Shock: Iran's President is A Jew". Then it did the same with "Shock: Iran's President is Not a Jew". Meir Javedanfar finally tried to sound the closing bell on the story, writing in The Guardian of London, "Ahmadinejad has no Jewish roots".

You might think that this was the end of our non-story, but never understimate the media's tenacity in spinning new rubbish out of old rubbish. In Foreign Policy magazine, Jamsheed Chosky insisted, "True or not, the rumors matter." Even though there appears to have been little or no attention to the non-story inside Iran, Chosky confidently assured, "On the domestic front in Iran, the whole issue plays into the widening chasm between the mullahs and Ahmadinejad, some of whom have challenged his family's Muslim lineage and piety for years." And then, assuming that folks will not see through this bunch of tosh, Chosky adds the "international dimension": "As his heritage becomes a more public question, it only makes it less likely that he can find accommodation with Israel without compromising himself in Muslim eyes."

Yet the most blatant attempt to find life in the Dead Parrot of All Political Stories came from CNN, courtesy of anchorman Jim Clancy of "Question of the Day" fame. Yesterday afternoon, Clancy brought on Meir Javedanfar, presumably to say that Ahmadinejad Was Still Not Jewish. However, Clancy still insists that this non-Jewish status was still relevant because of "the analysis about why the conservative media in Iran were ALL OVER the story". I didn't get the chance to ask Clancy if he meant Kayhan or Fars News or the Islamic Republic News Agency or Tabnak.

Now CNN does not post transcripts of Clancy's programme and, thank goodness, its website is not featuring the non-story. Perhaps Javedanfar will re-surface to clarify who is ALL OVER what. However, until then, using Clancy-esque capitals....

COVER SOMETHING THAT IS REALLY IMPORTANT OR STOP EATING UP AIRSPACE

UPDATED Palestine: Pressure on Abbas to Resign in Goldstone Report Furour

LATEST Israel-Palestine: Sacrificing the Goldstone Report to the War of Politics
The Ultimate Israel-Palestine Football Match

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UPDATE 1330 GMT: EA readers have noted this report, originally from Palestine's Shahab News Agency: "[Palestinian Authority] representatives at a meeting in the US initially rejected Israel's request not to endorse the Goldstone report. But, then, Brigadier Eli Avraham, an Israeli representative, played a videotape showing a meeting between Abbas and Ehud Barak, the Israeli defence minister during the Gaza war, in which Tzipi Livni, Israel's former foreign minister, was also present. The tape showed Abbas trying to convince Barak to continue the offensive.

"Avraham also played an audiotape of a telephone call between Dov Weissglass, a senior Israeli official, and al-Tayyib Abdul Rahim, secretary-general of the Palestinian president's office....In the conversation, Abdul Rahim noted that circumstances were suitable for entry of the Israeli army into Jabalya and al-Shatea refugee camps, and said that the fall of these two camps would end Hamas's rule in Gaza Strip....Weissglass then told Abdul Rahim that such an army operation would lead to the deaths of thousands of civilians, but, according to Shahab, Abdul Rahim said: 'They have all elected Hamas, so they are the ones who have chosen their fate, not us.'"

We have found no further information about this claim, but Al-Manar, Hezbollah's media outlet, adds: "[Israel's] Ma'ariv newspaper had previously quoted the Israeli occupation Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi as saying that the Palestinian Authority, represented by its President, went to war with Israel in Gaza. Ashkenazi sent a letter to the Israeli Attorney, in which he revealed that the Abbas maintained unprecedented cooperation with the Israeli occupation army during the Gaza war."

All this may be considered in the context of our repeated analyses, during the December-January Gaza War, that the Fatah party of Abbas was backing the Israeli operations against Hamas. See, for example, a 6 January entry, "Gaza: The Israel-Fatah Collaboration".

The pressure on Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas, after his support for the deferral of a UN vote on the Goldstone Report on the Gaza War, is increasing.

For the first time, an Israeli Arab party (Balad) has challenged the Palestinian leadership, calling for Abbas' resignation. Haaretz reports that even members of Fatah have unofficially asked what needs to be done in to save the party's prestige.

On Monday, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine called on Abbas to "go home." The council of Palestinian organizations in Europe also issued a call for Abbas to step down. Hamas leader in Gaza Ismail Haniyeh called the formation by the PA of a committee to investigate the circumstances around the deferred UN vote "unnecessary": "The circumstances here are clear. Abu Mazen [Abbas] gave the order to his representative. An investigation is only necessary when the circumstances are not clear."

And the issue is not going to disappear. At the request of Libya, the United Nations Security Council will discuss the Goldstone Report on Wednesday. Haaretz reports that Libya will look for possible ways to pass a resolution but in case of a veto, Libya is prepared to call on the UN General Assembly to make a decision. Yet the proviso is added that it would be "ridiculous" for Libya to act in the name of the Muslim world or the Arab League as long as the Palestinian Authority is not interested in acting.

Afghanistan: As US Increases Troops, Pentagon Aid Flows to Taliban

Analysis & Transcript: Clinton and Gates on “What to Do in Afghanistan-Pakistan?” (and Iran)

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The writing of US military escalation in Afghanistan is on the wall: President Obama has told Congressmen (with his advisors ensuring that the message was featured) that there will be no troop reductions. With that floor in place, the question is now how high the ceiling for the increase in forces. Meanwhile, Obama officials like Secretary of State Hillary Clinton have all but given up on the message of non-military strategy: in the face of financial mismanagement, problems with logistics, and the ill-fated Presidential election, they emphasise Security, Security, Security.

This is the context for the latest article from Jean Mackenzie of Global Post on the complications of US strategy and programmes: "Are Pentagon contracts funding the Taliban?"

KABUL — It seemed like such a good idea at the time.

At a staff meeting in 2006, Lt. Gen. Karl Eikenberry, who was then commander of Combined Forces Afghanistan, took a sip of bottled water.

Then he looked at the label of one of the Western companies that were being paid millions of dollars a year to ship bottled water by the container load into Afghanistan.

And Eikenberry, who is now the U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan, said, “There must be a way of producing bottled water in Afghanistan.”

Thus was born the concept of Afghan First, a policy of preferential treatment for Afghan-owned companies that steers military aid into the hands of Afghan vendors.

All local procurement from fuel delivery for the Afghan army to the production of winter socks for the Afghan police — everything short of weapons and ammunition — now comes from a variety of local contractors, who are being paid about $800 million per year from the U.S. military. The largesse comes out of the total $1.1 billion budget for local purchases that falls under the Combined Security Transition Command-Afghanistan, CSTC-A for short. It is the lead U.S. agency responsible for developing the Afghan army and police.

“We are building this country,” said Sgt. Edward Gyokeres, chief of the public affairs office at CSTC-A, explaining that the program is intended to use the American and coalition aid money in a way that helps construct a national economy in Afghanistan.

But, paradoxically, this well-intentioned policy may also benefit the insurgency, according to those inside the system, who contend that a significant portion of that money going to Afghan vendors trickles down into the hands of the very enemy the U.S. is battling in Afghanistan — the Taliban.

Precise numbers are impossible to obtain in the lawless fringes of rural Afghanistan where there is very little accounting for this money, but those knowledgeable about the process estimate that at least 10 percent, or about $80 million, has in the last year gone to the diverse groupings of Afghan insurgents whom the U.S. military has come to call the Taliban.

Some contractors say as much as 20 percent of the contracts go to paying off the insurgency, which would put the number closer to $160 million a year.

U.S. and Afghan officials tracking where the Taliban gets its funding estimate that the Taliban’s annual take of the poppy crop is about $100 million.

Over the last month, GlobalPost conducted a series of interviews with contractors, military personnel and others who work inside the system and confirmed that a flow of money goes from these local Afghan contractors to the Taliban for payoffs and protection in the widening areas of the country that are Taliban controlled.

In fact, GlobalPost found almost no one inside the military procurement and aid community who expressed surprise at the phenomenon, but very few who were willing to discuss the process on the record out of fear of losing their lucrative contracts, their jobs, or their lives.

Read rest of article...

The Ultimate Israel-Palestine Football Match

UEFA president Michel Platini said, during a visit to Jerusalem on Tuesday, that he believes football can play a role in bringing about peace in the Middle East. Maybe, he is right. Maybe, it is only football that can bring peace to the region...

After Platini's words, we thought how two sides might come together, shake hands before the kickoff, and talk politics in the middle of the pitch. Imagine Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu drinking from Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas's water and Israeli President Shimon Peres congratulating Hamas political diretor Khaled Meshaal's freekick goal. Just imagine...

The Palestinian Squad:

1 - Salam Fayyad - PA Prime Minister
2 - Bassam Al-Salhi - Leader of The Palestinian People's Party
3 - Ahmad Sa'adat - General Secretary of The Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine
4 - Khaled Meshal - Hamas leader in Syria
5 - Farouk al-Kaddoumi - Secretary-general of Fatah's central committee
6 - Aziz Duwaik - the Speaker of the Palestinian Legislative Council
7 - Saeb Erekat - Palestinian Authority negotiator in Israeli-PA peace process
8 - Ismail Haniyeh - Hamas leader in Gaza
9 - Nayef Hawatmeh - Leader of The Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine
10 - Mahmoud Abbas - PA President
11 - Saleh Ra'fat - Leader of The Palestinian Democratic Union

The Israeli Squad:

1 - Shimon Peres - President
2 - Yitzhak Aharonovich - Minister of Internal Security
3 - Silvan Shalom - Vice Prime Minister
4 - Moshe Ya'alon - Vice Prime Minister
5 - Avigdor Lieberman - Foreign Minister
6 - Ehud Barak - Defense Minister
7 - Danny Ayalon - Deputy Foreign Minister
8 - Dan Meridor - Deputy Prime Minister
9 - Eli Yishai - Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Internal Affairs
10 - Benjamin Netanyahu - Prime Minister
11 - Ya'akov Ne'eman - Minister of Justice

Ref: George Mitchell (USA)