Saturday
Sep192009
Iran After Qods Day: What Next for the Green Movement (The Sequel)?
Saturday, September 19, 2009 at 12:25
Iran: The Lessons of Qods Day (Parts 1 and 2)
The Latest from Iran: Challenge Renewed (19 September)
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Yesterday Mr Smith set out the questions for the Green Movement on Qods Day. Just over 24 hours later, this is his re-assessment of the prospects for the opposition, which intersects with Scott Lucas' appraisal of the long-term political challenges:
The Green Wave succeeded in its main objective yesterday. Ever since the start of Ramadan, the reformist opposition to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, led by Mehdi Karroubi, was striving to make Qods Day the focal point for anti-government demonstrations. The target was to "stand up and be counted", and to prove that the Green Wave rank and file have not been cowed into silence by the litany of violence unleashed against it by pro-government security forces.
The Quds Day events have set a precedent for the Green Wave. From now on, every public holiday, or event that includes a large public gathering, can now be exploited by the opposition as an opportunity. The demonstrators can fan out in the streets and highlight the government's main weakness, its behaviour like an administration that claims to have received 24 million votes in the "most free and fair elections ever". If nothing else, the reformists have and will succeed in causing serious embarrassment for the authorities, as the decision to air a football game in black-and-white and with muffled sound, hiding any reformist supporters in the stands - highlights.
The reformist leadership however, has failed to produce a structured, middle- to long-term strategy. Of its three main leaders, Mir-Hossein Mousavi, Mohammad Khatami and Mehdi Karroubi, it is Karroubi who has been most active and vocal lately, producing several hard-hitting communiques detailing allegations of rape and rebuking indirect notices by the Supreme Leader to back down over his claims. Possibly out of concern for the well-being of their close associates that have yet to be jailed, Mousavi and Khatami have retreated from adopting the same tactic. Mousavi continues to profess allegiance to the institutional configuration of the regime and the Constitution, and somewhat romantically links the current crisis to a distorted view, by the current incumbents, of the prerogatives assigned to institutions such as the Guardian Council, the Presidency
and , indirectly, the Supreme Leadership, without questioning, at least so far, the validity of the institutional configuration described within the current constitution. This could well prove to be a conceptual Achilles Heel for Mousavi.
The situation on the ground in Iran hence appears to be that of a nervous stalemate. The government is entrenched and appears unwilling to concede any sort of concession to the opposition. The latter is defiant, has the remarkable capacity to send thousands of its supporters out in the streets and coordinate them effectively via the Internet (web-designed slogans were sung with amazing coordination across the cities of Iran yesterday). However, the Green Wave is not yet willing to embark on a new level of challenge, one that would presumably see Karroubi, Mousavi, and Khatami upping the ante by, amongst other things, sending open letters straight to the Supreme Leader.
Also unresolved is the fate of the dozens of journalists, top reformist officials, and civil society activists who have been regularly arrested in the past three months. The regime is therefore likely to keep up the pressure and continue to retaliate against the opposition leaders by harassing their immediate associates. Meanwhile, Mousavi, Khatami and Karroubi will have to go back to the drawing board to ponder othe next stage of their strategies. The imminent end of Ramadan might be auspicious in this regard: Mousavi has promised that the official launch of his new political initiative, the "Green Wave of Hope", will immediately follow Sunday's Eid al-Fitr.
The Latest from Iran: Challenge Renewed (19 September)
Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis
Yesterday Mr Smith set out the questions for the Green Movement on Qods Day. Just over 24 hours later, this is his re-assessment of the prospects for the opposition, which intersects with Scott Lucas' appraisal of the long-term political challenges:The Green Wave succeeded in its main objective yesterday. Ever since the start of Ramadan, the reformist opposition to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, led by Mehdi Karroubi, was striving to make Qods Day the focal point for anti-government demonstrations. The target was to "stand up and be counted", and to prove that the Green Wave rank and file have not been cowed into silence by the litany of violence unleashed against it by pro-government security forces.
The Quds Day events have set a precedent for the Green Wave. From now on, every public holiday, or event that includes a large public gathering, can now be exploited by the opposition as an opportunity. The demonstrators can fan out in the streets and highlight the government's main weakness, its behaviour like an administration that claims to have received 24 million votes in the "most free and fair elections ever". If nothing else, the reformists have and will succeed in causing serious embarrassment for the authorities, as the decision to air a football game in black-and-white and with muffled sound, hiding any reformist supporters in the stands - highlights.
The reformist leadership however, has failed to produce a structured, middle- to long-term strategy. Of its three main leaders, Mir-Hossein Mousavi, Mohammad Khatami and Mehdi Karroubi, it is Karroubi who has been most active and vocal lately, producing several hard-hitting communiques detailing allegations of rape and rebuking indirect notices by the Supreme Leader to back down over his claims. Possibly out of concern for the well-being of their close associates that have yet to be jailed, Mousavi and Khatami have retreated from adopting the same tactic. Mousavi continues to profess allegiance to the institutional configuration of the regime and the Constitution, and somewhat romantically links the current crisis to a distorted view, by the current incumbents, of the prerogatives assigned to institutions such as the Guardian Council, the Presidency
and , indirectly, the Supreme Leadership, without questioning, at least so far, the validity of the institutional configuration described within the current constitution. This could well prove to be a conceptual Achilles Heel for Mousavi.
The situation on the ground in Iran hence appears to be that of a nervous stalemate. The government is entrenched and appears unwilling to concede any sort of concession to the opposition. The latter is defiant, has the remarkable capacity to send thousands of its supporters out in the streets and coordinate them effectively via the Internet (web-designed slogans were sung with amazing coordination across the cities of Iran yesterday). However, the Green Wave is not yet willing to embark on a new level of challenge, one that would presumably see Karroubi, Mousavi, and Khatami upping the ante by, amongst other things, sending open letters straight to the Supreme Leader.
Also unresolved is the fate of the dozens of journalists, top reformist officials, and civil society activists who have been regularly arrested in the past three months. The regime is therefore likely to keep up the pressure and continue to retaliate against the opposition leaders by harassing their immediate associates. Meanwhile, Mousavi, Khatami and Karroubi will have to go back to the drawing board to ponder othe next stage of their strategies. The imminent end of Ramadan might be auspicious in this regard: Mousavi has promised that the official launch of his new political initiative, the "Green Wave of Hope", will immediately follow Sunday's Eid al-Fitr.
Reader Comments (4)
There are two forces pulling and pushing in Iran right now. A Coup by the Right (The Guards) and a cry for change by the Reformists, the People and Hashemi (the old Clerical stablishment) The latter group has very diffrent interests but is now due to the situation very much united to the outside world. If they manage to win this war I would suspect new battles coming to surface. But parking that thought for now, what are the possible methods to achieve the change ?
Weather we look at the guards or at the allied opposition, if they care to take control they have to walk these 2 roads.
1) the change can be sudden or gradual
2) the change can be from the inside or from the outside
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The Guards,
The guards have opted a strategy of gradual change of power from within, gaining more and more important positions and winning over the power bit by bit. (if this does not work out one could imagine a military coup where all key figures get arrested overnight and a military regime takes over)
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The Allied opposition (Hashemi/ Clerics, Reformists, the people)
Well looking at their options they seem to be making threats of a takeover from the outside (revolution) but is this really their goal ? if not what are their other options.
A) They can try to get a leg in through legal channel and built from there, such as the elections. Well they tried and they failed as they are not getting a fair chance, second time allready where they have lost due to false play. The elections for the Parlement will be even more difficult as all their representatives will be vetted out bythe Guardian Council.
B) Incase the leader dies they can select a new more friendly leader through the Assembly of Experts if they manage to get enough votes. I think this is the Guards biggest worry hence they are rushing it now
C) They can keep the pressure and try to make a deal and again get a leg in and build from there. Which I doubt the Guards would allow
D) Get the Guardian Council under their control. This does not look to be achievable as the control over seems strong
E) Keep pressure on and challenge the goverment forcing the Guards to escelate even more perhaps leading to more players having to be forced to take a stand and choose sides, this way replacing the S.L before his death
I am pretty sure they will not risk a revolution so they must want to take the power from within but if so then their choices are very limited. Yes they have alot of tools to fight the Guards and they are using them with succes but to make that final jump they need to take power and to do that they need to go through the S.L either force him to change sides or changing the S.L himself. There is no other way to do it from the inside, which leaves us with one last option "A revolution which I am sure nobody wants except the people"
We had a discussion about "what next?" here at my blog too:
http://www.sidewalklyrics.com/?p=1574
I am part of the passionate under 25 group, so I realize I may not make the most pragmatic arguments. But ....
In short, I think it's too early to ask "why don't they have a plan?" it’s only been three months, the wounds are all very, very new and the dust of confusion is only slowly beginning to settle. We have to wait and see where the new wave of arrests will take us. The Mousavi camp has been long talking about establishing a "network" but ...
Either in a few months time, this wave of terror (arrests, abuse, etc) will calm. We will go back to the slightly lesser version we’ve always had in the past thirty years. And they can present their plans and see how it will be received by the public.
On the other hand, it might not stop, it might get worse even … that's where things can get very dark: then we realize the darkness is permanent, it's here to stay.
While they come up with a plan, their main challenge is going to be keeping the likes of me, my generation, waiting and planning and hoping. This is a waiting game for both sides, so it's of utmost importance that the green "base", the youth, are kept enthusiastic. Ashura is only 3 months away, and will require lots of planning:
http://www.sidewalklyrics.com/?p=1576
So that's a short term solution to keep us busy.
But in all, things don't look too good. The movement lacks good strategists, and that will become more apparent in the long run.
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To Afshin,
I believe your correct in your analysis. A few years back I noted the increased presence of military in government. This is a toxic mix when government is involved because military is by nature totalitarian. You can look back years ago to two events 1) when the regime purged the left and intellectuals once their usefulness was not neccesary and 2)when the government started placing clergy in government and military positions as a starting point. Ironically the revolution started based on the premise of giving a voice to the people the Shah did not listen to. It sort of shows, like the Shah, many in the regime were not for the voice of the people but in favor of a system they believed was better. Today the regime blatantly ignores the people and we can all see the results. From my persepctive this is a fundamental challenge in Islam when politics and religion are mixed. Further compounding the issue is the abject rejection of many universal human rights in favor of those deemed permisable under Islam. With globilization the whole worlds values are now front and center for the whole Islamic world to see. Many of the clergy see this as a threat while the people say they see value in it. Only time will tell, but in my opinion what we are seeing is a reformation movement within the Islamic world. Like Iran many Muslims are trying to rationalize the rest of the world, modernity, technology, and other cultures with their own. It will lead to clashes and strife but I hope universal values wins out. It's quite funny considering while much of Europe was wrapped in feudalism the Islamic world was arguably once of the first civilizations to foster human rights. What happened? My belief is early Islamic scholars(ie Ghazali) rejected greek/hellenistic(critcal thinking) as a threat and also closed the gates of Islamic interpretation. This in effect stuck them in time with unchaging values that obvisously don't mesh with most of the world. Today we see the reformers and those unwilling to change such as the Salafists and the current Iranian regime. Should be an interesting next couple of 20 years!