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Tuesday
Sep222009

The Latest from Iran (22 September): A Trip to New York

Iran: More on Rafsanjani and Khamenei’s End-of-Ramadan Speech
The Latest from Iran (21 September): Distractions

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IRAN GREEN
1520 GMT: EA's Mr Johnson goes over the Rafsanjani speech, adding to and correcting our earlier analysis.

While there is no open challenge to the Government, Rafsanjani's call for unity includes recognition and inclusion of those senior clerics who have offered criticisms: "A measured thoughtful approach can lead to an optimal solution for the problems....The help and support of the Marjas (Grand Ayatollahs ) for the Establishment is absolutely necessary. In the last 30 years we have never had a problem in this regard and hopefully in the future this will not happen again. Threats must stop and small problems that must not be allowed to cause rifts [between the establishment and Marjas]."

Then Rafsanjani manoeuvred behind the general chiding of Ayatollah Khamenei of conflict:  "The Supreme Leader has condemned the atmosphere of defamation and confrontation that currently exists....All of us officials must pay attention to these issues so that this atmosphere does not get worse."

This led to the key passage of Rafsanjani's strategy of resolution which EA noted earlier: "Currently experienced and concerned individuals of the establishment are in the process of designing a blueprint providing a solution for the current situation....Considering that the University academic year will start soon, these efforts can be very useful, and we must reduce opaqueness from the atomosphere of society and refrain from opaque acts...so that an atmosphere for constructive criticism of society can be created....The supreme leader has emphasized the importance of the law, therefore both officials [a.k.a the Goverment and the Revolutionary Guards] and the protesters must act according to law."

And so Rafsanjani's manouevre without direct reference to the issues of detentions and abuses: "Both the officials and the protesters must not expect indifference if they break the law, since lawlessness breeds chaos in society...The supreme leader has also emphasized that the right of people to defend themselves [from accusations] must be observed [and] has prohibited broadcasting the confessions of accused individuals....If any member of the media broadcasts a confession accusing others [that broadcast] is against the law  and must be prosecuted. The fact that certain members of the media [irresponsibly] publish whatever they choose is against the law and should be dealt with."

Mr Johnson also clarifies and corrects our earlier report --- it was Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi (not  Mesbah Yazdi) who was absent a very well-attended session.

1105 GMT: Speculation of Day. According to witness accounts, members' turnout at the Assembly of Experts meeting was the highest ever, but the Vice Chairman, Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, a fervent supporter of President Ahmadinejad, was absent.

1045 GMT: 1030 GMT: More on the Rafsanjani statement, as presented by ILNA:

As expected, it is very clever and very cautious, with interpretation left to the beholder. Rafsanjani upheld the greatness of the Iranian nation on Qods Day, as the "holy and glorious presence" of marchers make clear that the defense of rights would never be forgotten. Iranians were ever-ready to stand up to "imperialists" and their "psychological warfare" trying to reduce Iran to "passivity" ahead of negotiations. The priority for Iranians was the "unity of our country".

Nothing there to separate Rafsanjani from the Government, especially as the call could be read as defiance of the "West" in talks on Iran's nuclear question. And the former President's reference to the recent assassination of the Kurdestan member of the Assembly was a call to support the security forces and judiciary as they investigated and prosecuted such crimes.

But what of the security forces, and the Government behind them, in the post-election conflict? Ahh, there's the rub: there's no obvious reference by Rafsanjani on that key matter, leaving his audience --- whatever their position on and in the issue --- in suspense.

1030 GMT: Gary Sick offers an excellent analysis of a recent poll of Iranians regarding the election and its aftermath. EA's Chris Emery adds his own take:
I think there are some statistical anomalies with the poll and major methodological problems- there is a perception that the government routinely tap phones and this will affect people's responses to some degree. There was also a very high refusal rate amongst those called (52%).

In many ways its greatest signficance lies in how it has been read. Those, especially in the West, who cry foul on the methodology will be to some degree influenced by their refusal to accept the unpalatable truth that Ahmadinejad is undoubtedly popular amongst millions of Iranians. On the other hand, I would never use this poll as a litmus test for support within either camp. The situation is simply far more complicated and the dynamics of the current power struggles cannot be accurately drawn out from this poll.

In sum, it is more interesting to watch how it is kicked around as a political football than as a genuine indicator of the relative strength of either Ahmadinejad or the Green's position.

0945 GMT: The spin is coming in on Hashemi Rafsanjani's statement at the Assembly of Experts meeting. The Iranian Labor News Agency links a call for unity with a declaration that resolution is imminent: "Those who care about the Regime have devised a plan to get out of current situation."

0915 GMT: The "Western" media are running with "news" that President Ahmadinejad has claimed that "his country is now stronger than ever and warned that Iranian military will retaliate with full might against anyone who dares attack it".

This is not news. If Ahmadinejad had told those assembled for the military parade commemorating the 1980-1988 Iraq War that Iran was really weak and its military hopeless, that would be news. The story, however, will set up tomorrow's coverage of the UN speech: Big, Bad Ahmadinejad and the World That Must Confront Him.

Of course, it's not like Mahmoud isn't helping the portrayal: “Our armed forces will cut the hand of anyone in the world before it pulls the trigger against the Iranian nation,” Ahmadinejad said during a military parade marking the anniversary of the start of the 1980-1988 Iraq-Iran war.



0415 GMT: All very quiet in Iran in the last 24 hours, apart from some rumblings over the position of Imam Khomenei's grandson, Seyed Hassan Khomenei (see yesterday's updates). The regime will roll out a two-day setpiece ,with the presentation of detainees Saeed Hajjarian, Mohammad Atrianfar, and Saeed Shariati in a televised "roundtable" to discuss how the velvet revolution has been pursued against Iran. And Press TV has an intriguing story, given President Ahmadinejad's attempts to ensure a "proper" bureaucracy responding to his wishes, of "the first of the post-presidential-election diplomatic appointments of the Ahmadinejad government...being implemented with new ambassadors lined up for European countries".

But it appears that we are in the midst of a 72-hour diversion with President Ahmadinejad presenting himself as undisputed leader in front of the United Nations General Assembly. He will speak at about 5 p.m. New York time (2100 GMT) on Wednesday. This will get sneers and denunciations from most of the "Western" media, but mainly over his references to Israel and possibly Iran's nuclear programme. Iranian state media will hail the pride of the nation in their President on the world stage.

Opposition activists are pinning hopes on a show of protest, with Mir Hossein Mousavi's Facebook page laying out a schedule of events. At the risk of being a jaded cynic, I'm not sure there is enough attention to the Iran issue in the US now to generate a high-profile demonstration, at least on the Iranian internal issue. (There will undoubtedly be protests from pro-Israel groups, but I'm not sure how this will intersect with the Green wave.)

All this said, there is one prominent wild card in the deck. Iran's Assembly of Experts, chaired by Hashemi Rafsanjani, holds its regular (but delayed) meeting today. Will the former President use the occasion to make his challenge, supported by other members, to the current regime? Or will he maintain his cautious line of vocal support for the Supreme Leader but no direct attention to the Ahmadinejad Government? And what will be the dynamic beyond Rafsanjani?

References (6)

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    Terrific page, Continue the very good job. Thanks.
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    EA WorldView - Archives: September 2009 - The Latest from Iran (22 September): A Trip to New York
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    EA WorldView - Archives: September 2009 - The Latest from Iran (22 September): A Trip to New York
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    EA WorldView - Archives: September 2009 - The Latest from Iran (22 September): A Trip to New York
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    EA WorldView - Archives: September 2009 - The Latest from Iran (22 September): A Trip to New York
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    Response: visit site
    EA WorldView - Archives: September 2009 - The Latest from Iran (22 September): A Trip to New York

Reader Comments (132)

September 22, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterSimon

Simon,
wow
Considering all the attention & interpretation surrounding http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6BYG-FOG9p0" rel="nofollow">this encounter, even here in the US, seems like the video you posted would be the talk of the town. No interpretation necessary.

(aside... Hashemi is taller and thinner than I realized)

September 22, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterAmy

I think it is fair to say that the crowed in Tehran was well above the estimation of 10.000 or even 50.000. Just look at these two new videos....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RYAOX0YisWc&feature

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QLivIOPVSD4&NR=1

September 22, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterAfshin

Mr. Johnson's and VerBrugge's translations tell the tale, no? Hashemi is killing the SL WITH HIS OWN WORDS. In essence, Raf's deliberately picking and choosing which of the SL's words to use. If the SL sticks to whatever truce, great. If not, his own words condemn.

Beyond that, this was a "polite assault" on the current state of the regime. He attacked IRIB (and I suppose PressTV), the economic performance of the gov't, called for more openness, freedom, rule of law (couched by saying both sides*) and unity. Tour de force, right there, folks.

Then, the declaration. Raf's basically telling everyone, ESP. Khamenei, "Get out of my way. I'll fix this. If you don't (Mr. Khamenei), the consequences are your's."

Finally, the open reference to the Marjas cannot be anything, IMHO, but a shot at Khamenei. It has to be a sore spot for SL.

When you combine the last two, what do you have? A final warning/final chance. Follow my advice, bring the Marjas (enough of them anyway) onside, or you're finished. Implicit in my view, based on earlier postings from Verbrugge, Hashemi has told Khamenei "Do NOT make me choose between you/the system or the Marjas."

Also, I hate to bring this up, but reading Verbrugge's translation on foreign policy, could Raf be signaling (positively) the West on the nuke issue? We want what is our right (nuke power) but no more.

BTW: Doesn't Khamenei appoint head of IRIB too?

September 22, 2009 | Unregistered Commenterkevina

Re: Greening NY - Another coincidence, U2 will be performing in NY and I'm sure they will be singing Sunday Bloody Sunday with the green screen and images from Iran in June. I'm exciting about prtesting

@Samuel
I've noticed that on almost every thread you use the same debate tactic, which is well defined by Aaron Echkart in "Thank you for smoking". If you can't win a debate simply change the debate. I'm suprised how responders are continuely willing to engage your ridiculous responses. My favorite was the analogy about hiring a general contractor which made no sense whatsoever.

September 22, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterNY Irani

@Afshin & alt. clips on Qods crowd :
Yes, it's big, especially that many people were said to be gone on prolounged
week end and out of Tehran !! obviously all those remained went
en masse to rallye...

On the same verbrugge blog, a very interesting 'close up' on SL and Rafsanjani
exchanges just before Assembly.... it seems all word to mouth-infos on this
blog -but a strong ring of likelihood about these 'notes'

http://mikverbrugge.tumblr.com/post/194089425/source-reports-september-22-2009

September 22, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterYseut

*Meant to add that of course his call for following the law is aimed more at the IRGC. He can't outright say that though.

Also, contra Khamenei, he acknowledges the inherent legitimacy of the protesters as well.

September 22, 2009 | Unregistered Commenterkevina

kevina
Thx for your analysis. Do you see this part as aimed at the Pasdaran as well? Don't they largely own the media & orchestrate what is published & broadcast?

frpm 15:20 abpve

…The supreme leader has also emphasized that the right of people to defend themselves [from accusations] must be observed [and] has prohibited broadcasting the confessions of accused individuals….If any member of the media broadcasts a confession accusing others [that broadcast] is against the law and must be prosecuted. The fact that certain members of the media [irresponsibly] publish whatever they choose is against the law and should be dealt with.”

September 22, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterAmy

@NY Irani
We know... that's not why we do it. There are limits, tho

September 22, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterAmy

Alright, time for an "over/under."

Over/Under SIX months for "Pres." Ahmadinejad before he's sacrificed. Hashemi's speech had NOTHING positive to say about him or his government. Any lasting solution probably involves a total neutering of/outright sacrifice of Ahmadi.

I'm going under, to my own surprise.

September 22, 2009 | Unregistered Commenterkevina

@Amy

I think most of it was directly aimed at Pasdaran, with indirect nudges at/toward Khamenei. No idea who owns/runs the media. Afshin, can you help w/ that?

September 22, 2009 | Unregistered Commenterkevina

kevina
I'm going with over-- if things moved that fast, it could cause the kind of instability that the Pasdaran are better equipped to deal with than the people and/or other branches of govt & clerics

September 22, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterAmy

@Amy:

You may be right (I suspect you are), but everyone from liberal reformists to nervous principlists must be thinking "The longer he- Ahmadi- stays, the more likely we'll all tumble over the backlash."

Bad options both, I'd say. But keeping Ahmadi in too long seems unsustainable. Geopolitically, his Holocaust nuttiness from Friday couldn't have helped.

September 22, 2009 | Unregistered Commenterkevina

Some comments on Gary Sick's comments on the poll.
The skinny: The poll's numbers discredit themselves.
http://www.qlineorientalist.com/IranRises/wpo_survey/

September 22, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterEvan Siegel

Bill
Got the answer to my question in comment 23-- I was wrong. A walkout probably would not be about AN's legitimacy though:
http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSTRE58L5FJ20090922" rel="nofollow">Germany wants U.N. walkout if Amadinejad denies Holocaust

September 22, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterAmy

Lets not get carried away here, what happend today was something very much in the line of expectation but the magnitude was even greater then I thought. Still its one thing to yell something, its another to get it. Things to watch for the coming days;

1) Response from the Guards, and a response we shall get
2) Response or the lack of it by the S.L
3) Actions from Judicary and Majlis
4) Follow up's by the Reformists
5) Pressure from the Marja's

The single important thing for me today which has me on the edge of my seat is;

“The ones who really care” for regime & Iran are writing a declaration that will show the way out this crisis as we speak”

These 20 words or so, this one sentence, is the most incredible, the most significant, the most hope giving of this whole crisis. It is almost a COUP on its own. you could write a book on this sentence alone and still have enough for a second book. Just think about it and what this means, it is mind blowing.

- The ones who care about the Regime;
We are the ones who are protecting the legacy of the Imam, We are the one's who are protecting the Islamic republic, we are the ones who are pro revolution and they are the coup lords, they are anti Revolution, they are partung from the Imam's path, The S.L and his allies same as the Guards and A.N do not care about the revolution they just care about their own interests.They are not the "Pasdaran" of the revolution we are.


- & Iran;
Out path in not just the path of the Imam and the protection of the revolution, it is also in the best interest of the country of its people and the future of Iran

- are writing a declaration
We are taking over, it is no longer the S.L who leads but it is us who lead as the S.L in no longer fit to do so and has chosen to defy the path of the Iman and the revolution. Velayate Faghih is not to be trusted to this one person anymore but a group of wise men are writing the road to follow

- that will show the way out this crisis
Iran is in a crisis, how dare you sit here and act as if nothing is going on, how dare you think I have backed down and the people of Iran have backed down, how dare you think that the Marja's have backed down, How dare you think things are under control. The war is just beginning, We are very much still in a crisis which you can not solve so we shall do it for you.

- as we speak”
We are not saying listen or else, we have allready started, so just sit back and keep quite, time to talk is over we have started to take action and are taking the country the revolution and the power back.

I think the this was very much a warning to the S.L and also to anyone wanting to back them up. He knows that the a bloody battle with the guards is coming either way.

He is basically saying we are going after the Guards, and we will win this war, dont stand in our way or better yet join the fight.

September 22, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterAfshin

Afshin
I so hope you are right.

Who does Hashemi mean by "we". You are talking about "We the people". He would do well to start with what you just wrote and expand on it.

Do you think he is talking about people in the Assembly of Experts, or maybe the clerics and others he has been talking with since the election. He is always meeting with somebody. It would make sense for him to present the results of these meetings in a closed session of the A of E. They could agree to change the office of SL in a way that would allow new policies to be implimented

The step you describe might be just right at this time... not removing SL but redefining the position. Instead of destabilizing the government, it would present a solid front to the Pasdaran. SL won't like it, but it may be his only option.

And good timing with AN out of town.

It's a much more hopeful way to take back your country. You've got me on the edge of my seat too.

September 22, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterAmy

@ Amy,

These are the Questions that pop in my mind?

- Should we expect a real plan that will be presented in the coming days/ weeks ?
- Who is working on this ? Who is "WE" ?
- Who will present it and when?
- Who will they present it to ? (S.L or the Assembly or to the People?)
- When presented does it need approval from anyone or is it binding ?
- Who will implement it ?
- How will they make sure it is going to be implemented ?
- What is the content of the Plan?

The "We" part maybe some Marjas (perhaps not the most outspoken ones like Montazeri or Sanei but folks like Amoli and Shirazi, maybe ardabili or even Hamedani to show even he is onboard now. (If Amoli that would mean big trouble for S.L as there is a big link there to the Larrijani's)) Then Maybe some mid ranking clerics like Khatami and Nateq Nouri, I would love to see some technocrats like Qualibaf and some military men from the army in there but I doubt it. I would think some lower level technocrats or university professors might be added for show but no Army men and no one of level of Qualibaf. Would be nice though...

September 22, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterAfshin

Whatever the declaration contains, I think it must be in the final stages for him to speak of it in public. The stakes are too high to bring it up unless it's already solid. I think the question is more: what is the right occasion & how will it be presented? And, like you said, to who?

September 22, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterAmy

I have said this from day one. This was the backup plan. This did not just happen, its not like they lost the elections and Mousavi cried foul and the wheels started to roll spontaniously....

They knew they were going to be robbed, they knew the guards would never allow Mousavi to win it, so they had this plan all along and Hashemi is the mastermind behind this.

Mousavi, Khatami and karoubi are nobodies, 8 years of presidency and Khatami did not do a thing, he backed down everytime all the time. And now all of a sudden from a position of weakness he is the brave soldier of the revolution, and mousavi comes from the unknown and dares defy the S.L and the Guards just like that ? This is a well thought of plan and is now being implemented bit by bit, being tweeked here and there as they move forward. But the general outline plus the diffrent scenarios was written loooooooooooooooooooooooooong ago.... Khatami, Karoubi and Mousavi knew all along that the Marja's and Hashemi have got their back....

September 22, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterAfshin

The translation above:
"“Currently experienced and concerned individuals of the establishment are in the process of designing a blueprint providing a solution for the current situation..."

is more subdued than your translation:
“The ones who really care” for regime & Iran are writing a declaration that will show the way out this crisis as we speak”

Do both carry the same weight as far as what you are talking about? Are you sure he meant to go that far?

I'm asking because I get scared to become so hopeful... like how I was the night President Obama was elected

September 22, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterAmy

Both are saying we are taking control, we are NOT looking for the S.L to show the way as he has failed doing so, instead we are taking the lead and are showing the way to go. In other words withhout being asked by the S.L we are deciding what is best to do. This is flat out saying we are taking the power of velayate faghih and doing what he should have been doing.

At lease thats my take on it. Having siad that, some of the question in my post before does effect the meaning of this. such as who will they present this to and is it an advice or is ir binding.

September 22, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterAfshin

What I meant to say in last comment was that I'm scared for you that way.

Both are saying we are taking control, we are NOT looking for the S.L to show the way as he has failed doing so, instead we are taking the lead and are showing the way to go. In other words withhout being asked by the S.L we are deciding what is best to do. This is flat out saying we are taking the power of velayate faghih and doing what he should have been doing.


If that's what he is saying then it has to be binding. That statement can't be said in a non-binding way.

If he sends a letter to SL saying "Here are some recommendations" then it's not worthy of the kind of roll-out that he gave it.

Both translations say "we are presenting a solution". It doesn't really sound like they are making suggestions... but I don't know the nuances of how things are spoken in Iran. The more I consider it, the bolder it looks

September 23, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterAmy

I think SL has by now realised that his days are numbered, The guards are yet to come to this realisation. I think SL belives that he has a better chance of survival if sticking with the guards. either way, their ship is sinking and they have no lifevests. I personally believe that his best chance is to allign himself with Hashemi.

September 23, 2009 | Unregistered Commenterarash

I wonder if they had this discussion in their recent meeting?
(Hashemi & SL)

September 23, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterAmy

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