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Tuesday
Sep222009

The Latest from Iran (22 September): A Trip to New York

Iran: More on Rafsanjani and Khamenei’s End-of-Ramadan Speech
The Latest from Iran (21 September): Distractions

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IRAN GREEN
1520 GMT: EA's Mr Johnson goes over the Rafsanjani speech, adding to and correcting our earlier analysis.

While there is no open challenge to the Government, Rafsanjani's call for unity includes recognition and inclusion of those senior clerics who have offered criticisms: "A measured thoughtful approach can lead to an optimal solution for the problems....The help and support of the Marjas (Grand Ayatollahs ) for the Establishment is absolutely necessary. In the last 30 years we have never had a problem in this regard and hopefully in the future this will not happen again. Threats must stop and small problems that must not be allowed to cause rifts [between the establishment and Marjas]."

Then Rafsanjani manoeuvred behind the general chiding of Ayatollah Khamenei of conflict:  "The Supreme Leader has condemned the atmosphere of defamation and confrontation that currently exists....All of us officials must pay attention to these issues so that this atmosphere does not get worse."

This led to the key passage of Rafsanjani's strategy of resolution which EA noted earlier: "Currently experienced and concerned individuals of the establishment are in the process of designing a blueprint providing a solution for the current situation....Considering that the University academic year will start soon, these efforts can be very useful, and we must reduce opaqueness from the atomosphere of society and refrain from opaque acts...so that an atmosphere for constructive criticism of society can be created....The supreme leader has emphasized the importance of the law, therefore both officials [a.k.a the Goverment and the Revolutionary Guards] and the protesters must act according to law."

And so Rafsanjani's manouevre without direct reference to the issues of detentions and abuses: "Both the officials and the protesters must not expect indifference if they break the law, since lawlessness breeds chaos in society...The supreme leader has also emphasized that the right of people to defend themselves [from accusations] must be observed [and] has prohibited broadcasting the confessions of accused individuals....If any member of the media broadcasts a confession accusing others [that broadcast] is against the law  and must be prosecuted. The fact that certain members of the media [irresponsibly] publish whatever they choose is against the law and should be dealt with."

Mr Johnson also clarifies and corrects our earlier report --- it was Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi (not  Mesbah Yazdi) who was absent a very well-attended session.

1105 GMT: Speculation of Day. According to witness accounts, members' turnout at the Assembly of Experts meeting was the highest ever, but the Vice Chairman, Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, a fervent supporter of President Ahmadinejad, was absent.

1045 GMT: 1030 GMT: More on the Rafsanjani statement, as presented by ILNA:

As expected, it is very clever and very cautious, with interpretation left to the beholder. Rafsanjani upheld the greatness of the Iranian nation on Qods Day, as the "holy and glorious presence" of marchers make clear that the defense of rights would never be forgotten. Iranians were ever-ready to stand up to "imperialists" and their "psychological warfare" trying to reduce Iran to "passivity" ahead of negotiations. The priority for Iranians was the "unity of our country".

Nothing there to separate Rafsanjani from the Government, especially as the call could be read as defiance of the "West" in talks on Iran's nuclear question. And the former President's reference to the recent assassination of the Kurdestan member of the Assembly was a call to support the security forces and judiciary as they investigated and prosecuted such crimes.

But what of the security forces, and the Government behind them, in the post-election conflict? Ahh, there's the rub: there's no obvious reference by Rafsanjani on that key matter, leaving his audience --- whatever their position on and in the issue --- in suspense.

1030 GMT: Gary Sick offers an excellent analysis of a recent poll of Iranians regarding the election and its aftermath. EA's Chris Emery adds his own take:
I think there are some statistical anomalies with the poll and major methodological problems- there is a perception that the government routinely tap phones and this will affect people's responses to some degree. There was also a very high refusal rate amongst those called (52%).

In many ways its greatest signficance lies in how it has been read. Those, especially in the West, who cry foul on the methodology will be to some degree influenced by their refusal to accept the unpalatable truth that Ahmadinejad is undoubtedly popular amongst millions of Iranians. On the other hand, I would never use this poll as a litmus test for support within either camp. The situation is simply far more complicated and the dynamics of the current power struggles cannot be accurately drawn out from this poll.

In sum, it is more interesting to watch how it is kicked around as a political football than as a genuine indicator of the relative strength of either Ahmadinejad or the Green's position.

0945 GMT: The spin is coming in on Hashemi Rafsanjani's statement at the Assembly of Experts meeting. The Iranian Labor News Agency links a call for unity with a declaration that resolution is imminent: "Those who care about the Regime have devised a plan to get out of current situation."

0915 GMT: The "Western" media are running with "news" that President Ahmadinejad has claimed that "his country is now stronger than ever and warned that Iranian military will retaliate with full might against anyone who dares attack it".

This is not news. If Ahmadinejad had told those assembled for the military parade commemorating the 1980-1988 Iraq War that Iran was really weak and its military hopeless, that would be news. The story, however, will set up tomorrow's coverage of the UN speech: Big, Bad Ahmadinejad and the World That Must Confront Him.

Of course, it's not like Mahmoud isn't helping the portrayal: “Our armed forces will cut the hand of anyone in the world before it pulls the trigger against the Iranian nation,” Ahmadinejad said during a military parade marking the anniversary of the start of the 1980-1988 Iraq-Iran war.



0415 GMT: All very quiet in Iran in the last 24 hours, apart from some rumblings over the position of Imam Khomenei's grandson, Seyed Hassan Khomenei (see yesterday's updates). The regime will roll out a two-day setpiece ,with the presentation of detainees Saeed Hajjarian, Mohammad Atrianfar, and Saeed Shariati in a televised "roundtable" to discuss how the velvet revolution has been pursued against Iran. And Press TV has an intriguing story, given President Ahmadinejad's attempts to ensure a "proper" bureaucracy responding to his wishes, of "the first of the post-presidential-election diplomatic appointments of the Ahmadinejad government...being implemented with new ambassadors lined up for European countries".

But it appears that we are in the midst of a 72-hour diversion with President Ahmadinejad presenting himself as undisputed leader in front of the United Nations General Assembly. He will speak at about 5 p.m. New York time (2100 GMT) on Wednesday. This will get sneers and denunciations from most of the "Western" media, but mainly over his references to Israel and possibly Iran's nuclear programme. Iranian state media will hail the pride of the nation in their President on the world stage.

Opposition activists are pinning hopes on a show of protest, with Mir Hossein Mousavi's Facebook page laying out a schedule of events. At the risk of being a jaded cynic, I'm not sure there is enough attention to the Iran issue in the US now to generate a high-profile demonstration, at least on the Iranian internal issue. (There will undoubtedly be protests from pro-Israel groups, but I'm not sure how this will intersect with the Green wave.)

All this said, there is one prominent wild card in the deck. Iran's Assembly of Experts, chaired by Hashemi Rafsanjani, holds its regular (but delayed) meeting today. Will the former President use the occasion to make his challenge, supported by other members, to the current regime? Or will he maintain his cautious line of vocal support for the Supreme Leader but no direct attention to the Ahmadinejad Government? And what will be the dynamic beyond Rafsanjani?

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    Terrific page, Continue the very good job. Thanks.
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    EA WorldView - Archives: September 2009 - The Latest from Iran (22 September): A Trip to New York

Reader Comments (132)

The irony about the Calvin Klein set in Tehran is they long with all their heart and soul to be westerners when Western Europe is becoming more like their worst nightmare every day thanks to Muslim immigration.

The Arab youth that I've spoken to in France, Italy and Spain are ardently pro-Iranian Govt. Sometimes their enthusiasm exceeds mine. Even though most are Sunni or even secular they love and admire the Iranian Revolution, the Legacy of Imam Khomeini and the Supreme Leader Khamenei.

It is telling that Tariq Ramadan who is a veritable superstar among Arab youth in Europe is associated with Iranian TV.
http://www.presstv.ir/programs/detail.aspx?sectionid=3510523&id=106575#106575
Who says Sunnis and Shiites don't get along.

The future of Europe is one of ever greater Islamization and Arabization (take that pro-western Iranian elitist youth!!!) thanks to high birth rates and constant immigration.

Let me propose a trade: Let's send the whole lot of anti-revolution traitors to Europe where they'll feel at home (at least for a while) where they can leave the hijabs at home, where they can drink all the beer and wine that they want in order to wash down their British Bacon. And whee they'll feel comfortable among other whites and away from the (slur) Ayyyrabs.

In turn let's bring to Iran those pro-revolution muslim youth, non-Arab as well as Arab, who rebel against racist, colonialist societies. I think they will make superb Basij members. Remember that many, many Iraqi Shiite Arabs fought for the Revolution and against Iraq during the eight year war.

It is also true that some of the founders of the Pasdaran received their first military training from Lebanese in Amal training camps in the 1970's during the Lebanese civil war.

Finally, the glorious Arab Shiite Sadr family from Iraq was among the strongest supporters of Imam Khomeini and they paid for it at the hands of Saddam the killer. Sistani on the other hand, an Iranian, was always an enemy of Khomeini and his doctrines.

And yes I support the Basij and the crackdown.

September 24, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterSamuel

Samuel
Are you in Europe? Sounds like you do some traveling...
It's kind of late for you to be up if you are... it's late for me to be up & I'm in the US

September 24, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterAmy

Amy,

Did you not read the comments about the Towel________ Arabs?
Read the comment sections at Tehran Bureau or the comment section at Press TV's websited from anti-govt. Iranians, or the comments section at emigre websites. There is obvious anti-Arab Iranian chauvinism. The comments here about "are you even Iranian"?.

The message is clear. Anyone expressing a pro-govt message could not possibly be an intelligent Iranian. They must be a (slur) Arab. I'm surprised no one has speculated yet on my bathing habits. As I've written before it would no surprise me if many anti-govt. Iranian emigres were sympathetic to European fascist movements like the Front National, or the British National Party.

September 24, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterSamuel

Amy,

I spend a lot of time in both Europe and America, some in South America. Thus my interest in and admiration for the Chavez Govt and its alliance with Iran. And I've never flipped a burger Ha Ha Ha.

September 24, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterSamuel

Samuel
I did a "page search" & can't find the word 'towel' except in your comments. I can't answer for what people were thinking when asking if you are Iranian, but I took them to mean that if you lived in Iran under the conditions you extol, you might not be so supportive of the govt. Basically people here (EA commenters) find it hard to imagine that you would want to live under the AN / SL regime. You may like that interpretation even less than if the comments were ethnic, but I think it's accurate

BTW, I've flipped some burgers, but it's been a good while since those days ;)

September 24, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterAmy

Like I said the moderator deleted it so it might not appear.

September 24, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterSamuel

'night, Samuel. Sweet dreams (with no Basiji)

September 24, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterAmy

May you never have to flip any more burgers.

September 24, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterSamuel

Well Samuel just answered the question. As I expected, he is living outside Iran, has not seen the reality of the Iran Life and is same as many other misguided Muslim youth across the world drawn to the A.N fight against the west, its morals, its way of life. They romantisize him and his actions associating with it mostly based on a common hate of the west. It is a love started and living of negativity, frustration mostly strong in the "have not" part of the western society having not been accepted by the west, the orphans have found a new father.

September 24, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterAfshin

To Amy,

My CEO has been in town from down under and we were locked away with him. You got your answer to who attended Ahmadinejad's speach. The picures even paint a better picture showing almost no one in attendance. He toned down his speach but as always came through on his monotheism/justice as the answer to the terrible democratic/captialist/free market societies of the west. Typical Islamist blather completely ignoring the current state of his own country--but of course it is always the other guys fault namely those "evil jooooos" in Israel. The irony is he even bothered to come but I attribute that his devotion to Islam in which calling one to Islam is very very top priority. That is one thing we all know he is dead serious about ala exporting the Islamic Revolution and ushering in the return of the Mahdi.

September 24, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterBill Davit

Samuel,

You make a lot of good points and I do believe your correct about the Muslims in Europe and those in Iran. What I think your failing to miss is that Iran unlike most of the Islamic world(Sunni) did not abandon ijtihad. I belive this happened largely because early Persian society was so heavily influenced by early greek thought. They could not see the logic of totally abandoning banning critical thinking like their Arab cousins. Its telling that most of the greatest Islamic philosophers and scientist happened to be persian such as Al Kindi, al-Khwarizmi and a lot more.

On the other hand the Sunni Asharite school of thought effectvely closed the gates of Ijtihad. People like Al Ghazali(ironically Persian) with his work the 'The Incoherence of the Philosophers' and Ibn Taymiyyah in my mind were the ones to firmly nail close the gates. From then on the Sunni world has essentially been trapped in a time warp because in their mind everything was predestined and everything needed was already divinely revealed. This malaise continues today. The proof is in the overall development of the Arab world and the absolutely dismal state of the education system. The irony is the Salafist movements seek to return to these days oblivious to the fact their own stuborness to embrace anything out of the west is a large part of the problem. They often cannot see beyond their own overally paternalistic/intolerant views and thus when they run into trouble trying to embrace modernity or the other they often fail. That failure is then attriubted to something not being Islamic. The reaction is then to abandon it or as Tariq Ramadan often says 'Islamisize it' and the Cario DHR is a prime example. They see the myth of the monolithic dream of the Caliphate as answer to put them back on top oblivious as to why the rest of the world passed them by. Read this article, Salafi Utopia: The Making of the Islamic State, for some background: http://clogic.eserver.org/2006/el-shall.html

Iran, despite the best efforts by the regime, is actually much more advanced and democratic than most of its arab neighbors. Their education system is fairly good and their ability to achieve technological advancements under sancations demonstrates this. I believe this because Iran has been always more open to interpretation of Islamic scritpure and they are not as hell bent on trying to Islamasize it first. The irony in all of this is the fact the West embraces the Saudis and yet it's my belief Iranians(obviously not the regime) are much more favorably predispositioned towards the West.

In summary the reform movement is not going to fall for the old "evil west" trick to pin all their misery on. They have rightly seen through the charade unlike many of their Arab brothers. The Shia predisposition to accepting change and true education is the key behind all of this. This begs the question if the revolution built this educational system rebelling against them then trully who has deviated? The reform movement is rebelling because they believe their regime is following the dangerous intolerant/unchaning path of Political Islam endemic across the Sunni world that values the system over the people. It's why you have heard a number of clerics in Qom reference the Taliban in comparision to the hardliners. Let me know your thoughts and please check my older post on Quds continued for additional reference. By the way I used to flip Tacos at Taco bell to pay for college!!

Thx
Bill

September 24, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterBill Davit

Samuel's straw man count was impressively high!

Yes, clearly those who criticise Ahmadinejad are racists who don't believe Arabs can be Iranians! And of course European Muslim immigration is highly relevant!

September 24, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterChris

Afshin,

As always looking for the superficial answers. I've never said I've not been to Iran only that I do not live there. And you, of course, jump to a whole set of conclusions dreamed up in your own brain: Never seen the reality of Iranian life, misguided Muslim etc,. I'm surprised you didn't say "he's never been to Iran so he hasn't even smelled how filthy and smelly AN is."

Come on admit you thought it but didn't write it.

Let me add another example of the bigotry of many Iranian nationalists/reformists which I've heard in person from Iranian emigres as well as in their websites.

Now that they hope that Rafsanjani can save the Greens they worship him but before this there has always been a nasty campaign against him based on the fact that he obviously has Asian blood.
I’ve read and heard anti-Revolution Iranians refer to Rafsanjani in the past as the “biggest thief that the Mongols left behind”. "THE DIRTY MONGOL" and on and on. Most of the slurs you cannot even type here.

Now it is obvious that Rafsanjani’s ethnic background is different. The man CAN’T EVEN GROW A PROPER BEARD. Look at his beard and facial hair in general compared to any other Iranian religious leader. http://schema-root.org/region/middle_east/iran/government/officials/akbar_hashemi_rafsanjani/hashemi_rafsanjani.jpg

Like many men of Asian ancestry Rafsanjani can’t grow facial hair. The racists focused on the shape of his face, his eyes, the lack of facial hair. These seemingly irrelevant facts were used by Iranian émigrés and other anti-revolutionaries obsessed with blood and ethnic bigotry to claim that somehow he was less than fully Iranian. Of course to a muslim, the ethnic makeup of a person should make no difference. Not so with the Iranian racists.

Many of these reformists (at the grassroots level, not talking about Mousavi, Khatami etc.) are obssessed with the Persian Empire the way Italian fascists were obssessed with ancient Rome.

They are anti-religious folks who hide behind the Green color of Islam and shout religious slogans they don’t even believe; they are racists and bigots who hide behind the language of toleration, freedom and democracy to push for a “pure” Iranian nation and culture.

September 24, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterSamuel

Bill Davit,

I disagree with you in many ways but your comments are always thoughtful and profound. The one above is no exception.

September 24, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterSamuel

Chris,

You seem to be one of those individuals who needs a GPS, 3 identical maps plus a tour guide on board to get from point A to point B, even if point B is across the street.

The point/irony was that the anti-Revolution Iranian youth is enamored of Europe, its secularism, "democracy", "freedom" etc., etc., even as that Europe of their fantasies is being radically transformed by muslim immigration. And it is a fact that Muslim youth in Europe are very Pro-Iranian Revolution. My suggestion: buy another GPS.

September 24, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterSamuel

Samuel,

My suggestion: wiki straw man

To "attack a straw man" is to create the illusion of having refuted a proposition by substituting a superficially similar proposition (the "straw man"), and refuting it, without ever having actually refuted the original position

In other words, I suggested that the reform movement is a civil rights movement and not a counter-revolutionary threat. This is clear because they profess leadership to a former prime minister and president. I then asked you to address the underlining problems regarding normal civil rights and academic freedom in Iran.

Instead of answering you erected a bizzare theory about anti-Arab racism, AN's personal hygiene, and Europe's apparent Islamification.

But anyway- on your characterisation of Europe.

Ironically, considering your previous points on racism, you seem to be offering a similar fear-mongering assessment as far right racist groups in Europe. In other words, Muslim immigrants are set upon transforming Europe into a caliphate and threaten our democracy, identity and culture. The Muslim 'breeding' machine point is straight out of a BNP handbook.

It's a lazy, ingnorant and patenly false portrayal.

"Muslim youth in Europe are very Pro-Iranian Revolution."

This was so funny I almost fell off my chair. You're speaking to someone who went to school in Birmingham (where over 150,000 Muslims live) and who's school was probably about 35-40% Muslim. If I went back to my old school tomorrow and put a picture of Khomeini up I would bet my house that 99% of the Muslim kids would not know who he was. Are you are honestly saying that you think AN is popular amongst the Muslim youth in Europe or that the basij are held as great role models? I assume you have some stats to back this up?

September 24, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterChris

Let me clarify one statement I made, as I want no one to feel hurt or others to think I am anti Arab.

I unlike some Iranians love Arabs. I have had many very good Arab friends, done much business with them and enjoy their culture, music, women, language. No anti Arab racism in my sole, and I truly believe all the evil done in Iran has been done at the hands of Iranians to Iranians. No deflection of truth to another group by me. Second point my comment about the stink of AN is a factual comment. I have a trusted source that was a masters student colleague of AN at the IUST. AN invited my trusted source to dinner at his place, and my friend was discussed by the stink of the toilet, by the smell of the house and the unkept and dirty / sweaty clothes that AN wore. This is a common practice amongst Basiji / Pasdaran class that they equate un kept scruffy dirty attire and presentation with poyus, religious and of simple classes. They continue to use slander and hatred towards others (Calvin Klein class, North Tehrani, etc.) when all the while the battle of distinction based on physical appearance is something they are a full participant of. They continue to use labels of westoxification etc. when they fail to realize that after 30 years people don't really like them or care for them. It is a failed system and a failed ideology trying to tell people what to do, while the people have moved on to a new sophisticated level they don't understand.

@ Samuel (and my only words to you
I for one am willing to donate the 1000 for a one way plane ticket to Iran for you. Why not come here and enjoy first hand the ideology you so deeply love? Why stay behind? Iran is a wonderful place, if you can grow a 2 day stubble, look scruffy, be willing to go to streets and beat people with a stick or baton. If you like to dabble in some part time torture and rape too, you can readily in one year afford a Samand for 16000 dollars, and don't worry 50% of the money has gone to subsidize your brothers in Lebanon, Gaza, Senegal, and whatever godforsaken place on earth that has a leader that wants to support IRI.
Final point
Samuel you never answered any of the questions you yourself raised about yourself. Mystery suites you well, but remember with mystery comes secrecy, anonymity, obscurity, ambiguity, inscrutability. All qualities well owned by your own leader AN.

Samuel on the one hand deflects rape and torture done by the government to others, and then wants to use the tail light of the same argument to say people deflect his arguments. I guess they learned fast in this forum. Samuel first goes around and around changing arguments, and then blames Mr. Emery of not seeing the straight path.

Mr. Emery was trying to remain "Objectionable" and not make conclusions based on instinct and innuendo, but rather facts. Its sad that you not realized this point. If it takes him longer to get to the point, it is at least guaranteed to be backed up by fact.

September 24, 2009 | Unregistered Commenterwhereismyvote

whereismyvote,
Very well said. I would chip in on Samuel's plane ticket.
(aside) I think you meant to say that Mr. Emory was trying to remain "objective" rather than “objectionable”.

Samuel,
If you haven't been to Iran for a while, maybe it's time to refresh your mind. Nostalgia fogs the past. After many years, when you see the house you grew up in, it's always smaller than the picture in your memories

September 24, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterAmy

@Amy
Sorry, my English is not perfect, and sometimes one word misplaced can change the whole sentence. I appreciate the correction. I will try harder to double read before I hit the submit button.

September 24, 2009 | Unregistered Commenterwhereismyvote

@Samuel
You are no longer worth the trouble, If u were living in Iran or was an Iranian (of any etnic background) you would be of some interest as you would represent the dying breed of Die hard Basiji, now you just seem like a frustrated misguided Muslim who hates the US and the west so much that he would sleep with the devil him self to fight the imperialists. Now you are just dime a dozen... Not worth the response any more....

September 24, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterAfshin

Apologies to anyone who has had problems commenting on this thread- many legitimate comments appear to have been zapped by our spam filter. If you are still having problems, please http://enduringamerica.com/contact/" rel="nofollow">contact us.

September 24, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterMike Dunn

whereismyvote
Don't apologize. I am very impressed with your first-class English. I speak a little French & Spanish, but would be unable to express myself so well in another language-- esp one with a different alphabet. This particular error gave me a smile, tho :)

September 24, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterAmy

Chris
Excellent presentation of the "straw man" logical fallacy. It's absurdly effective here in the US... the high road (ignoring the bait) doesn't work when straw swiftboats and death panels are fed to the media. By the time everybody sees the lie, the damage is done... Of course the straw man doesn't have to be a lie, but the more shocking the allegation, the bigger the headlines. This summer, the political right seemed to be testing the theory that people will believe truly outrageous lies because nobody would dare to say such things if they weren't true. Who wants to talk about people without health care when President Obama is planning re-education camps for those who don't follow doctors' advice (ie, the obese or smokers)?

Dealing with it depends on the audience. If there's no audience, calling it is an individual decision. If it's a college debate, the person using the straw man gets shot down. It politics, it's hard, as discussed above... ignore it & it gets repeated till it blows up. Addressing it means it gets repeated anyway, while simultaneously taking time & attention away from real issues... sigh. If you have any suggestions on dealing with such tactics, I'd love to hear them

Here we have been trying to understand what's up with Samuel & what it it like to believe such things. Seeing continual use of the straw man gives insight into how someone might justify this ideology to himself/herself.

September 24, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterAmy

Chris,

"In other words, Muslim immigrants are set upon transforming Europe into a caliphate and threaten our democracy, identity and culture. The Muslim ‘breeding’ machine point is straight out of a BNP handbook."

You should be aware that a spokesman for the SL made this point explicitly this year. It is hardly out of the BNB, the Vlam Blok's or the Front National's handbook.

"On May 8, 2009, an article titled "France is Turning into an Islamic Republic" was posted on www.abna.ir, the official website of the Iran-based International Ahl Al-Bayt Foundation. [1] The secretary-general of this foundation, Mohammad Hassan Akhtari, is deputy of international affairs in the office of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and former Iranian ambassador to Syria. [2] He was appointed by Khamenei to head the foundation in March 2004. [3]

The article surveyed the growth of the Muslim population in Europe, the U.S., and Canada, which, it claimed, is due to a higher birth rate among Muslims as compared to Christians, as well as to immigration. The article called on the Shi'ite institutions and clerics to take advantage of the situation, namely, that the Muslims will soon become a majority in most of the European countries and the U.S., and to introduce the local Christian population to the Shi'ite school of thought - since, according to the writer - it is more appealing than Sunni Islam.

Following are the main claims of the article. [4] It should be stressed that the data brought in the article is unsubstantiated and should be perceived as reflecting the positions of the Iranian foundation.

"The Culture of a Country Where the Birth Rate Remains Less than 2.5% for 25 Years Cannot Endure"

After comparing the growth rate of the Muslim and the Christian populations in France, statisticians claim that in 40 years at most, France will become a predominantly Muslim country.

"An average [non-Muslim] family in France has 1.8 members, as compared to an average Muslim family there, which has 8.1 members… In France today, there are more mosques than churches. Thirty percent of all babies and young people under the age of 20 there are Muslim, but in large cities such as Paris, Nice, and Marseille, 45 percent [are Muslim]. The conclusion is that if this ratio does not change, by 2025 one out of every five French [residents] will be Muslim, and France will turn into a Muslim state.

"The situation in most [other] Western countries is similar. In Britain, the growth-rate of the Christian population is 1.6% [per annum]; in Greece - 1.3%; in Germany - 1.3%; in Italy - 1.2%; and in Spain - 1.1%. The average [natural] growth of the Christian population in the 31 European Union states is 1.38%. Demographers and statisticians believe that the culture and the civilization of a country where the birth rate remains less than 2.5% for 25 years cannot endure…"
http://www.memri.org/bin/articles.cgi?Page=archives&Area=sd&ID=SP242409#_edn4

September 25, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterSamuel

Samuel, Chris, and Afshin,

I believe Samuel has a point but he is falling into the trap many in the west do in sterotyping people as a monolithic mass. However, the point Samuel made bears scrutiny. To prove his point you only need to look at the rise of the right in Europe(Gert Wilders comes to mind) as evidence something is in play. The far right is engaged in a battle with the far right in the Islamic community who do want to Islamasize Europe. The irony is in both cases they are the minority but the receive the lions share of the pess because the press loves a juicy story. So we then ask ourselves why the Sunnis support Ahmandinejad?

We can attribute this support to the Arab Sunni predisoposition of the other, lack of education, and their leaning towards the goals of intolerant political Islam. This guy is attacking the West/Israel so he must be good because that is what my teacher/system says we should believe! Iran on the other hand has a very educated, more liberal, and more advanced society that somewhat shields them from buying wholesale into the plans of this form of political Islam. In many cases the plans of intolerant Political Islam often have the opposite effect turning them away from Islam. I have seen numerous comments and articles stating that Iranians are drifting away form their religion. Some will say this is the evil plot of the West but fail to realize the abject failure of the regime to care for its own people on so many levels. They are drifting soley because of the fault of the regime to live up to what they promised in the Islamic values enshrined in their consititution. They are deeply fearful of people like Ayatollah Mohammad Taqi Mesbah-Yazdi who does not believe is true government but instead rule by one man supposedly elected by God.

The majority of the Arab Sunni world does not have near the level of education or advancement in Iran. Thus they are more likely to blindly follow cheering what their Imam tells them because they don't know how to think otherwise. In my earlier post, #111, I elaborated on this but the key is the Sunni world rejected and to a large degree still rejects critical thought. In their minds everything has already been predestined and revealed. The Imam is just telling them what to do providing them with the 'perfect' blueprint how to do it. Taking this all into context it is quite easy to why some Sunni Arabs would have a favorable disposition to Ahmandinejad and his policies.

The good news is the Arab world is changing. Globilization and tools like Internet are forcing them to see the other in a different light than what their told. They have light years to catch up to the Iranian populace but with a focus on true education they can. We will be fighting a battle for those trying Islamasize everything but they will eventually lose once they realize the utopia they desire has never existed and is unattainable. Critical thinking will eventually show them their overeliance on Hadith(manmade) actually contradicts a central message of the Quran that "thier is no compulsion in religion." History has proven time and time again those who rule with force eventually fail. Simply put the emphasis needs to be the people not on upholding some utopian system at all costs! In the near future your going to see this scenario played out across the Middle East and my prediction is that Egypt will be next. The intolerant form Political Islam espoused by many in the Sunni(Iranian Regime as well) world will fall as communism did.

Thx
Bill

September 25, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterBill Davit

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