The Latest from Iran (22 September): A Trip to New York

Iran: More on Rafsanjani and Khamenei’s End-of-Ramadan Speech
The Latest from Iran (21 September): Distractions

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1520 GMT: EA's Mr Johnson goes over the Rafsanjani speech, adding to and correcting our earlier analysis.

While there is no open challenge to the Government, Rafsanjani's call for unity includes recognition and inclusion of those senior clerics who have offered criticisms: "A measured thoughtful approach can lead to an optimal solution for the problems....The help and support of the Marjas (Grand Ayatollahs ) for the Establishment is absolutely necessary. In the last 30 years we have never had a problem in this regard and hopefully in the future this will not happen again. Threats must stop and small problems that must not be allowed to cause rifts [between the establishment and Marjas]."

Then Rafsanjani manoeuvred behind the general chiding of Ayatollah Khamenei of conflict:  "The Supreme Leader has condemned the atmosphere of defamation and confrontation that currently exists....All of us officials must pay attention to these issues so that this atmosphere does not get worse."

This led to the key passage of Rafsanjani's strategy of resolution which EA noted earlier: "Currently experienced and concerned individuals of the establishment are in the process of designing a blueprint providing a solution for the current situation....Considering that the University academic year will start soon, these efforts can be very useful, and we must reduce opaqueness from the atomosphere of society and refrain from opaque acts...so that an atmosphere for constructive criticism of society can be created....The supreme leader has emphasized the importance of the law, therefore both officials [a.k.a the Goverment and the Revolutionary Guards] and the protesters must act according to law."

And so Rafsanjani's manouevre without direct reference to the issues of detentions and abuses: "Both the officials and the protesters must not expect indifference if they break the law, since lawlessness breeds chaos in society...The supreme leader has also emphasized that the right of people to defend themselves [from accusations] must be observed [and] has prohibited broadcasting the confessions of accused individuals....If any member of the media broadcasts a confession accusing others [that broadcast] is against the law  and must be prosecuted. The fact that certain members of the media [irresponsibly] publish whatever they choose is against the law and should be dealt with."

Mr Johnson also clarifies and corrects our earlier report --- it was Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi (not  Mesbah Yazdi) who was absent a very well-attended session.

1105 GMT: Speculation of Day. According to witness accounts, members' turnout at the Assembly of Experts meeting was the highest ever, but the Vice Chairman, Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, a fervent supporter of President Ahmadinejad, was absent.

1045 GMT: 1030 GMT: More on the Rafsanjani statement, as presented by ILNA:

As expected, it is very clever and very cautious, with interpretation left to the beholder. Rafsanjani upheld the greatness of the Iranian nation on Qods Day, as the "holy and glorious presence" of marchers make clear that the defense of rights would never be forgotten. Iranians were ever-ready to stand up to "imperialists" and their "psychological warfare" trying to reduce Iran to "passivity" ahead of negotiations. The priority for Iranians was the "unity of our country".

Nothing there to separate Rafsanjani from the Government, especially as the call could be read as defiance of the "West" in talks on Iran's nuclear question. And the former President's reference to the recent assassination of the Kurdestan member of the Assembly was a call to support the security forces and judiciary as they investigated and prosecuted such crimes.

But what of the security forces, and the Government behind them, in the post-election conflict? Ahh, there's the rub: there's no obvious reference by Rafsanjani on that key matter, leaving his audience --- whatever their position on and in the issue --- in suspense.

1030 GMT: Gary Sick offers an excellent analysis of a recent poll of Iranians regarding the election and its aftermath. EA's Chris Emery adds his own take:

I think there are some statistical anomalies with the poll and major methodological problems- there is a perception that the government routinely tap phones and this will affect people's responses to some degree. There was also a very high refusal rate amongst those called (52%).

In many ways its greatest signficance lies in how it has been read. Those, especially in the West, who cry foul on the methodology will be to some degree influenced by their refusal to accept the unpalatable truth that Ahmadinejad is undoubtedly popular amongst millions of Iranians. On the other hand, I would never use this poll as a litmus test for support within either camp. The situation is simply far more complicated and the dynamics of the current power struggles cannot be accurately drawn out from this poll.

In sum, it is more interesting to watch how it is kicked around as a political football than as a genuine indicator of the relative strength of either Ahmadinejad or the Green's position.

0945 GMT: The spin is coming in on Hashemi Rafsanjani's statement at the Assembly of Experts meeting. The Iranian Labor News Agency links a call for unity with a declaration that resolution is imminent: "Those who care about the Regime have devised a plan to get out of current situation."

0915 GMT: The "Western" media are running with "news" that President Ahmadinejad has claimed that "his country is now stronger than ever and warned that Iranian military will retaliate with full might against anyone who dares attack it".

This is not news. If Ahmadinejad had told those assembled for the military parade commemorating the 1980-1988 Iraq War that Iran was really weak and its military hopeless, that would be news. The story, however, will set up tomorrow's coverage of the UN speech: Big, Bad Ahmadinejad and the World That Must Confront Him.

Of course, it's not like Mahmoud isn't helping the portrayal: “Our armed forces will cut the hand of anyone in the world before it pulls the trigger against the Iranian nation,” Ahmadinejad said during a military parade marking the anniversary of the start of the 1980-1988 Iraq-Iran war.



0415 GMT: All very quiet in Iran in the last 24 hours, apart from some rumblings over the position of Imam Khomenei's grandson, Seyed Hassan Khomenei (see yesterday's updates). The regime will roll out a two-day setpiece ,with the presentation of detainees Saeed Hajjarian, Mohammad Atrianfar, and Saeed Shariati in a televised "roundtable" to discuss how the velvet revolution has been pursued against Iran. And Press TV has an intriguing story, given President Ahmadinejad's attempts to ensure a "proper" bureaucracy responding to his wishes, of "the first of the post-presidential-election diplomatic appointments of the Ahmadinejad government...being implemented with new ambassadors lined up for European countries".

But it appears that we are in the midst of a 72-hour diversion with President Ahmadinejad presenting himself as undisputed leader in front of the United Nations General Assembly. He will speak at about 5 p.m. New York time (2100 GMT) on Wednesday. This will get sneers and denunciations from most of the "Western" media, but mainly over his references to Israel and possibly Iran's nuclear programme. Iranian state media will hail the pride of the nation in their President on the world stage.

Opposition activists are pinning hopes on a show of protest, with Mir Hossein Mousavi's Facebook page laying out a schedule of events. At the risk of being a jaded cynic, I'm not sure there is enough attention to the Iran issue in the US now to generate a high-profile demonstration, at least on the Iranian internal issue. (There will undoubtedly be protests from pro-Israel groups, but I'm not sure how this will intersect with the Green wave.)

All this said, there is one prominent wild card in the deck. Iran's Assembly of Experts, chaired by Hashemi Rafsanjani, holds its regular (but delayed) meeting today. Will the former President use the occasion to make his challenge, supported by other members, to the current regime? Or will he maintain his cautious line of vocal support for the Supreme Leader but no direct attention to the Ahmadinejad Government? And what will be the dynamic beyond Rafsanjani?

Comments

[kevina]

@Afshin (23:31)

Damn, I knew Hashemi was slick, smart and savvy, but THIS, if true is beautiful genius. And, really, the Guards telegraphed their intent days before the vote, so they knew what was coming.

Legally, though, wouldn't the Assembly be the ONLY body to take away/limit velayat-e-faqih from Khamenei? Can they even do that w/o the SL's approval? And why would Khamenei agree to it?

[arash]

they probably have had these discussion, SL backing the Qom clerics and Hashemi, stripping the guards of their power and influence, but I think this is a matter of trust issue between SL and Hashemi, SL probably believes that once Hashemi is in control he will sideline SL. they`re like the mafia, "you walk in alive, end up dead, and its your best friend doing it" Benjamin "lefty guns" Ruggiero

[kevina]

But if Afshin's right, what exactly did the SL agree to? Afshin's positing that Qom/Hashemi(throw in Reformists, though they're unimportant on THIS topic) want to severely limit Khamenei's power. Did the two talk about that, and why would the SL agree/capitulate like that?

[outsider]

Hypothetically, if Ahmedinejad were dead the SL and IRGC would still be in charge. Any reformist in his position would be able to do little. If SL died the IRGC would still have Ahmedinejad and their power would not reduce unless there was another Supreme leader who was a reformist and who would reduce the power of the IRGC and later his own power.It's a paradox because people who want to be in power usually do not want to limit their power.
Rafsanjani tries to be everything to everyone. It is unlikely that he will ever upset the applecart against the SL. He doesn't want to do so and his family would probably be murdered by the administration if he did so.
The government started losing religious legitimacy when Khomeni decided to murder his opponents. It has been a long slide ever since then. Too bad Montazeri was not the successor.

[Amy]

kevina
SL may or may not have known... may or may not have agreed... If true he may not have a choice, given that the statement was made just before the A of E meeting.

To agree, he would have to be feeling a certain desperation. He appears to feel safest where he is in the most danger (with AN/Pasdaran). He would have to realize that he actually is safer as part of a united clerical front, or else, that he will become irrelevant unless he joins with others. It wouldn't happen unless he understood he has no other option.

[Samuel]

Chris E,

“Refusal rates for telephone interviews in the U.S. and Western Europe
typically run in the 20-40 percent range, with increases in recent decades..."

First of all as you say there may be a dispute as to the numbers but many experts stand by the 60 to 70% refusal rate as set forth in my link. One would even expect the number to be higher now since the refusal rate is increasing over time. The fact is that the percentage in the survey at issue here is well within the norm.

But wait I think I get your point this outfit is associated with the University of Maryland in the U.S. A WELL KNOWN STRONGHOLD OF THE STUDENT BASIJ. No wonder they are so pro-AN.

[Samuel]

@NY Irani,

Thank you for the kind words. I would simplify the Contractor example so you could understand it but it would be kind of tedious.

Go enjoy Bono, it's good to see them recover from that ridiculous "Pop" album years ago. Maybe he will write a song to celebrate Basij week later this year.

[Evan Siegel]

@Samuel
I am taking liberties, but I hope the author does not mind if I quote a private message of his.
Charles Kurzman (the author of a book on the Iranian Revolution) wrote as follows about previous polls.

"World Public Opinion's refusal rate of 52 percent is somewhat high for telephone surveys in Iran. Recent telephone surveys of Iran by Terror Free Tomorrow had refusal rates of 39 percent (June 2007), 46 percent (February 2008), and 42 percent (May 2009)."

He noted that rates in the US are higher due to the deluge of aggressive telemarketing we are afflicted with.

[Samuel]

I’ve really enjoyed all the excitement even exhilaration brought about by Rafsanjani’s little talk. It is especially fascinating to read every poster sort of building up the speech to be even more monumental with every comment. It was a good speech, then great!, more than we expected, much more than we expected, then fantastic!!, extraordinary!!! Brilliant how he used the SL’s own words against him in a terribly sophisticated form of Political and Linguistic Judo!!!

This reminds me very much of the Sovietologists during the cold war who used to scrutinize every May Day parade to see which Politburo member smiled at the head of the Communist party, who stood with whom, who sneezed, who frowned etc.,--All fascinating stuff and most of it proved useless.

But back to reality. It is time to put a fable to rest. That fable tells of a Revolution in a place far, far away where the clergy in general and the Marjas in particular were one big happy family with the Father of the Revolution.

The simple truth is that large portions of the clergy and especially among the Marjas never accepted Khomeini’s doctrine of the Guardianship of the Islamic Jurisprudent. One of the few who did accept this doctrine was, ironically, Montazeri, the future traitor to Khomeini. It is because of this that Montazeri was originally selected as the successor.

Sistani for example was always a bitter enemy of Imam Khomeini’s views. Khomeini was in many ways not a traditionalist at all but a REVOLUTIONARY, who wanted to RADICALLY transform the traditional Shiite relationship between religion and politics. His speeches, his sermons, his books reflect this revolutionary spirit.

The Marjas were and are in many ways afraid and uncomfortable with Khomeini’s radicalism. They are too comfortable in their traditional roles. And of course Sistani is and was nothing but a despicable coward who spent a lifetime kissing Saddam Hussein’s feet, hands and who knows what else. This is why not a hair in Sistani’s beard was ever touched by Saddam’s killers while the glorious Sadr family in Iraq, who did follow Imam Khomeini, was decimated.

[Samuel]

Evan Siegel,

Fair point especially with regards to the US. But even your numbers are not that off particularly the 46 percent. Let us say that the 52 percent here is a little higher, that does not invalidate the whole survey. Keep in mind the party doing the survey has nothing to do with the Iranian Govt. The truth is that if this survey agreed with the anti-govt views of most folks here they would be shouting the results from the rooftops.

[Observer]

Samuel (#60) - Perhaps the 'truth' may be found by inquiring of the pollsters who paid for the poll?

[Evan Siegel]

Samuel,
Every list on Iran needs an admirer of Imam Khomeini. Kind of like the Webbs did for the Soviet Union. But of course, as in Prokofiev's Peter and the Wolf, "From the middle of the pond..."
I was simply giving you numbers. I wasn't trying to argue that a 52% shows much of a degree of fear on the part of the respondents, and I don't believe it does. I know that if I were in Iran and some stranger asked me what I thought of the elections, I'd unabashedly speak my mind. You betcha.
But other numbers in the poll show otherwise.
http://www.qlineorientalist.com/IranRises/wpo_survey/

[Evan Siegel]

Samuel,
Every list on Iran needs an admirer of Imam Khomeini. Kind of like the Webbs did for the Soviet Union. But of course, as in Prokofiev's Peter and the Wolf, "From the middle of the pond..."
I was simply giving you numbers. I wasn't trying to argue that a 52% shows much of a degree of fear on the part of the respondents, and I don't believe it does. I know that if I were in Iran and some stranger asked me what I thought of the elections, I'd unabashedly speak my mind. You betcha.
But other numbers in the poll are more telling.
http://www.qlineorientalist.com/IranRises/wpo_survey/

[Samuel]

Evan Siegel,

"Every list on Iran needs an admirer of Imam Khomeini" Don't forget an admirer of the SL, the Guards and the Basij as well. AN not so much. Also a person who absolutely despises Montazeri and Sistani. Don't leave that out.

I find this conclusion from Gary Sick (no fan of AN) interesting:

"The opposition movement is limited in size and probably in demographics. At a minimum, those who are active in the opposition and most conversant with the politics are using cell phones and computers. Those individuals appear to be under represented in this study.
There are also, unquestionably, loyal supporters of the regime and its policies – very likely a majority."

As to the fear that individuals may have about answering phone surveys.
I think this is highly exagerated. Iran is not a totalitarian system like North Korea where every conversation is overheard. Folks regularly express anti govt views and the govt. does not do a thing. What the govt. does do is crack down on CONDUCT e.g., the demostrations etc.

In authoritarian govts like Iran telling someone on the phone that you disagree with the govt., would hardly be news.

Now if the questioner said "ARE YOU IN FAVOR OF OVERTHROWING THE REVOLUTION AND HAVING THE GOVT LEADERS SHOT FOR TREASON TO THE IRANIAN NATION SO THAT WE CAN BRING THE SHAH'S FAMILY BACK TO POWER" then yes I can see someone being reluctant to answer that question.

[arash]

@Samuel
what`s your interpretation on the current power struggle within the establishment? The rift between SL and Qom clerics, SL disagreement with AN.
what are your predicments on how the political scene will outfold in Iran, will Karrobi, Mousavi and Khatami be arrested, will the protests continue?

[Samuel]

arash,
As always on has to go to history. The rift between SL and some Qom clerics is not all that different from the rift between the Ayatollah Khomeini and the clerics in the past/ (See post no. 59 where I address this issue)

Imam Khomeini sidelined a good number of the clerics and they've never really accepted it. The doctrine of Vilayat-e Faqih by its very nature does that. Of course these clerics are a little louder against the SL because the SL, as I've said before, it's a relative pacifist compared to the Imam. Khomeini was a bit more inclined to smack them across the mouth when they oppossed him. Read his letter dismissing Montazeri for example. http://www.baabeilm.org/khomeini/montezari.pdf

So in answer to your first question, I dont' see the clerical dissent as a threat to the SL at all.

Disagreements between SL and AN. Let's be blunt, AN is an impulsive, arrogant, loudmouth who often acts and speaks before he thinks. The SL sees it as his role, correctly, to bring him down to size once in a while, e.g., the appointment of first vice president. Of course the SL also sees AN as preferable to the anti-Revolution reformists.

Again I don't see a threat to SL here either. Note that in the vice president controversy the Basij (YES THE BASIJ!) spoke out strongly against AN as did usual allies like Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami. If the SL wanted to get rid of AN, AN would be history.

I don't think that the Reformist trio will be arrested. They have been weakened as it has been shown by Khatamis' own words that his goal was a type of velvet revolution that would overthrow the SL. See the reformists putting all their hopes on Rafsanjani. They will be dissapointed. There is nothing to gain by arresting since their threat is now minimal.

The protests will surely continue because the protestors, although a minority, are fanatical in their opposition to the system and to the SL. They really do mean death to the SL in their chants, no doubt about it.

BUT THE REFORMIST WILL NOT WIN, THAT I CAN ASSURE YOU. The reason is that the opposition's fanaticism is creating and energizing an equally passionate fanaticism among the SL's backers (above all the Basij) to defend the Revolution and crush those who would hurt the SL. I'm telling you I've never seen the Basij so energized in their mission and they appear to be increasing their already huge membership as will.

The men and women of the Basij have been entrusted by the SL to lead the cultural revolution that will attempt to return the country to the values of the 1979 Revolution. Believe me they are embracing this mission with astonishing zeal.

Finally, unlike many here I don't believe for a second that the Guards pose a threat to the SL. It is indeed interesting that the SL haters do not recognize a simple reason why the Pasdaran, and indeed most war veterans, are deeply loyal to the SL.

During the Iran Iraq war the now SL was one of the few political figures to spend considerable time on the front with the troops. He listened to them, prayed with them, ate with them and above all, inspired many of them during the darkest days of the war against Saddam. Soldiers never forget acts like this and they will stand with the SL forever.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p6S9jHNfhVE A view of the SL at the front during the war.

[Afshin]

@ Samuel

Just three simple anwers, since they really say enough.

1) Regarding your refrence to USSR - "This reminds me very much of the Sovietologists" - OH YES AND WE ALL KNOW WHAT HAPPENED IN USSR... lol

2) Regarding your refrence to khomeini... Cheap words, no one cleric dared disobey even a percent Khomeini as they are doing now to this weak S.L. Khomeini's word was law, you could reason with him, you could advise, you could beg but critisice in this way not in a 100 years. This S.L however it seems has lossed complete control.

3) History !!??? for a man that likes history so much you should know that a hated goverment like this whit so much resistance from the inside has never and will never survive.

[Samuel]

Afshin,

Three simple responses right back at you.

1) You don't understand what happened in the USSR. Plesase less superficial analysis. Yes if you are a weakliing like Gorbachev or an Alcoholic like Yeltsin your country is destroyed. If you are strong like China... AND WE ALL KNOW WHAT HAPPENED IN CHINA.

2) This is a joke right? Most clerics defied him on Vilayat-e Faqih.!!! There was/is nothing more important than Vilayat-e Faqih. It's the Imam's primary contribution to the revolution that he brought about (not just in Iran) but in Shiite Islam.

3) Ha Ha!!! More Karroubi propaganda. I'll tell you what, you vote with the Greenies I'll vote with the Basij.

__________________________________________________

Join in celebrating Basij week 2009!!!

[Afshin]

@ Samuel

Again 3 responses

1) China model is more the Hashemi model and not the Guards. So good to have you on board.

2) Talk is cheap. Give me sources of where MARJA's so openly ridiculing Khomenei in Iran. He would hang them by their #$%$%^%. Let alone all of the Marja's at the same time and to this level.

3) Thank you again for showing your true colour. I vote for Basij not S.L but Basij!!! re-afirming the coupe

Ps. I seriously doubt you live in Iran....

[arash]

@samuel:
SL`s crackdown on protests contradicts what you say about the protestors being a minority. If they were in fact a minority, we would see protests in favour of the government, they have been few, but most of them are on government payroll.
if the protestors are a minority then SL and the Guards needn`t to implement Rape torture and murder to put fear into people. I`m under the impression that you believe the election was not rigged? if that the case why didn`t they allow a re-count, why the trials? why the arrestes? why the ban on foreign media?
this election was a manifistation of a higher level fighting between hashemi and the guards over the Iranian Economy, the SL`s and the guards agenda is not to follow the doctrine of khomeini, they are about MONEY, and they use torture, rape and murder to get their way.

correct me if Ì`m wrong

[Samuel]

Afshin,

1) Wrong again. You seem to forget a little crackdown that China had a few years ago. It was in all the papers.

2) You are repeating my point. Khomeini was a true hardliner who would hang them by their #$%$%. By comparison the SL is a wimp. The SL has also not sent thousands to be executed like Imam Khomeini did in 1988.

3) I never hide my true colors or allegiancies. Period.

Ps. I seriously doubt that I ever said I lived in Iran...(what you conjure up in your brain is really your bussiness)

_______________________________________________

Join in celebrating Basij week 2009!!!

[Afshin]

@ Samuel

Now you sound like a man drowning...

1) its not about the crack down but the reform AFTER the the fierce protests and opposition from the people, the desire to reform. The Model looks more like that of Hashemi. China model Iran will get with HASHEMI. not Guards. It will happen. And again same as China the protest will trigger the start

2) Yes Khamenei is in no way comparable with Khomeini. Also Khomeini in the early days had alot of popularity amongst the people which this guy has not. Also Khomeini had the suport of the Marjas and this guy does not even have one marja behind him. Hence little chance of survival. Again thank you for getting unboard. OTHERWISE SENT ME THE ACTS OF DEFIANCES BY THE MARJAS WHERE THET SO OPENLY RIDICULED THE S.L

3) Again thats for re-afirming the coup

Ps. That explain your views. if you have not lived within the horrors you can not understand it.

Pps. are u even an iranian ?

[Samuel]

arash,

My opinion on the crackdown is clear. It was justified because the oppositon wanted a velvet type revolution where the SL was overthrown.
Khatami's quoted words are very explicit. Words he has never denied. The SL worked with Khatami in 1997-2005. In the past the system has allowed reformists (Kharroubi Speaker, Khatami Presiden) but this time they wanted to decapitate the revolution.

A lot of the charges against the govt are just reformist propaganda. Take the exploitation of the killing of Neda. There was no policy for the Basij to shoot to kill. If there were there would be 10,000 Nedas. But of course the Greens needed their Martyrs and they exploited it to its fullest. The must be so sad that they could not have any more martyrs on Qods day. I'm sure they had the cameras ready, just waiting for that perfect picture to post online. But it never happened.

[arash]

@afshin,
let us take comfort in that this regime will perish like fart in the wind, Samuel can continue with his wishfull thinking that the basij is growing stronger. The fact remains, more than 80% of the Iranians oppose SL and his regime. Even members of the Basij is turning against SL, personal friends of mine who participated in the demonstrations told about Basij members protecting the protesters against riot-police. 1/3 of the guards members voted for Khatami in the 97 election, most likely they are supporters of mousavi as well. SL did alot of reshuffling amongst the top commanders of Guards to get rid of those loyal to hashemi. They arrested 30 army officers. SL is weaker than ever, all he can do now is hope, and pray that when his day come, the people will have mercy on him.

[Samuel]

Afshin,

1. "same as China the protest will trigger the start". Obviously you are clueless. Reforms in China as to the economic system started more than a decade before the protests.

2. Very nice I see you ignore the issue of Vilayat-e Faqih.!!! I don't blame you for not having an answer.

3. 100% supporter of the crackdown against those trying to support the revolution.

Perhaps what explains my views is that I am a Buddhist monk typing on a laptop from a deep underground cave in Tibet with the Dalai Lama sitting next to me.

__________________________________________

Join in celebrating Basij week 2009!!!