Middle East Inside Line: Stalemate over Lebanon's Government; Israel's Settlements as "Human Rights"

Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis

Stalemate over Lebanon Government: Lebanese Prime Minister-designate Saad al-Hariri (pictured) submitted the list for a new national unity government to Lebanese president Michel Suleiman on Monday. Hariri's "March 14" alliance gets 15 of 30 seats in the new cabinet and the opposition "March 8" alliance 10 seats. The other five seats will be chosen by the president.

Hezbollah and its allies refused to support the  list since several ministries and appointees that it demanded had been rejected by Hariri. Haaretz quotes one senior Hezbollah official: "We will not deal with this proposal because we know nothing about it. As far as we are concerned, it does not exist and we will have nothing to do with it."

President Suleiman is not expected to approve any Cabinet proposal that does not have opposition support.

Meanwhile, the Israeli Government has decided to intervene. An Israeli official said that Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu addressed the issue in the past, and that his position then still stands: "If Hezbollah joins the Lebanese government, then the Lebanese government is accepting responsibility for Hezbollah's actions, including its actions against Israel."

Israel's Settlements Expand for Sake of "Human Rights": On Monday, right-wing lawmakers, including Supreme Court Judge Eliyakim Rubinstein, celebrated the establishment of a new neighborhood in the E-1 corridor connecting Jerusalem to settlement suburbs in the West Bank. National Infrastructure Minister Uzi Landau and Information Minister Yuli Edelstein were also present.

Following Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak's decision to approve construction of 455 new homes, this was a "victory" demonstration for some Likud Party members. Landau told the crowd:

This land is ours and ours alone... It is the Arabs who are occupiers... A settlement freeze is a violation of human rights. What can we tell the families? Don't have any more kids, don't build another house, you can't have a playground here. This construction must not stop under any circumstances.

Israel-Sweden: The Situation Worsens

After weeks of tension, Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt has canceled his visit to Israel which was scheduled for September 11.

Israeli diplomats had already stated that unless there was a condemnation of the Swedish newspaper Aftonbladet's article blaming Israeli troops for harvesting organs of dead Palestinians, it would cast a serious cloud over Bildt's trip.

Bildt stated that he canceled his trip to Jerusalem due to the "bad timing" amidst the ongoing talks between the U.S. and Israel on the peace process. However, Haaretz reports from a source at the Israeli Foreign Ministry that the real reason was concern in Stockholm over an icy welcome for the Swedish minister.

Middle East Inside Line: Israel and Hamas Manoeuvre on Settlements Policy

Israel Government Moves for Common Line on Settlements: On Sunday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Israel would likely reach a final plan with George Mitchell during the American envoy's visit to Israel this week.

Dealing with increasing criticisms from his Likud Party, the Prime Minister held meetings with some Likud cabinet ministers and members of Parliament to get their support for a freeze on construction in the West Bank settlements. Netanyahu's meetings came as Defense Minister Ehud Barak gave partial approval for 500 new housing units to be constructed in the West Bank, with 2000 more to be approved on Monday morning. A source in the Prime Minister's office said Netanyahu did not use the word "moratorium" or "freeze" but described the proposed measure as "reducing the scale of construction".

While the European Union reiterated its call for a "total settlement freeze," Washington sharpened its tone:

Continued settlement activity is inconsistent with Israel's commitment under the road map.... The administration of President Barack Obama does not accept the legitimacy of continued settlement expansion and we urge that it stop. We are working to create a climate in which negotiations can take place, and such actions make it harder to create such a climate.

Meanwhile, Israel and Hamas Stand Tough: On Sunday, Deputy Prime Minister Eli Yishai told Likud Party members:

The postponement in construction is a strategic delay... We won't give up on building in Jerusalem and will still build hundreds of construction units. We are looking ahead, here.

On the other side, Hamas political chief Khaled Meshaal warned Arab states:

There is an Israeli effort to avoid the American demands... We warn against any Arab rush toward normalization.

Latest on The IAEA Conclusion on Iran's Nuclear Programme (28 August)

Iran’s Nuclear Programme: Talks, Threats, and Propaganda

Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis

UPDATE 2 September, 0900 GMT: In an interview with Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohammad el Baradei has said, "Somehow, many people are talking about how Iran's nuclear program is the greatest threat to the world. In many ways, I think the threat has been hyped....The idea that we'll wake up tomorrow and Iran will have a nuclear weapon is an idea that isn't supported by the facts as we have seen them so far."

UPDATE 29 August, 0920 GMT: An EA correspondent has pointed out, in response to my judgement, "These conclusions could be, almost word for word, the conclusions of reports from 2008", that there is a subtle difference from the IAEA's June 2009 report: "The section on possible military dimensions is considerably longer and more detailed...and also entails a subtle change of tone." In particular, the IAEA emphasizes that documentation "derived from multiple sources over different periods [is so] generally consistent and sufficiently comprehensive and detailed that it needs to be addressed by Iran".

This should not be read as a declaration that Iran has moved towards nuclear weapons capability. Rather, it is an amplification of the IAEA's frustration at not getting full access to Iranian facilities to verify the state of research and development.

As we expected, such subtleties are beyond the US press. The New York Times, confused that "Iran Has Bolstered Ability to Make Fuel but Slowed Its Output", gives up and puts out the panicky conclusion, supported by far-from-neutral "outside experts", "If Iran’s current stockpile of low-enriched uranium was further purified, it would have nearly two warheads’ worth of bomb fuel."
---

We reprint below the conclusions of the latest report of the International Atomic Energy Agency on Iran's Nuclear Programme. The full report is available on the website of the Institute for Science and International Security.

As we noted earlier this week, there has been and will be a rush of propaganda around this report. Those who wish to put pressure on Iran, including tougher economic sanctions, will bring out the finding that Iran "has not suspended its enrichment related activities". More ominously, they will convert the IAEA's "remaining issues of concern which need to be clarified to exclude the possibility of military dimensions to Iran’s nuclear programme" into the conclusion that Iran is definitely pursuing nuclear weapons. (The US State Department has already put out the statement, "Based on what we have seen in press reports ... it seems clear that Iran continues to not cooperate fully and continues its (uranium) enrichment activities." Ha'aretz has trotted out the Israeli line, "The report states that Iran may be working towards acquiring a nuclear weapons capability.")

On the other side, Iranian officials will claim, with the finding of "the non-diversion of declared nuclear material" that they are in compliance with the Non-Proliferation Treaty. Or in the objective summary of Press TV, "the UN nuclear watchdog has confirmed that the country is improving its cooperation with the agency while it continues to enrich uranium in spite of UN Security Council resolutions".

All of this will overshadow the real significance of the report, which is that almost nothing has changed over the last year. Indeed, these conclusions could be, almost word for word, the conclusions of reports from 2008. This is a limbo in which Iran is neither culpable of definite violations of the NPT through pursuit of weaponry rather than civilian energy nor exonerated with full inspections of the IAEA of its research and production facilities.

Implementation of the NPT [Non-Proliferation] Safeguards Agreement and relevant provisions of Security Council resolutions 1737 (2006), 1747 (2007), 1803 (2008), and 1835 (2008) in the Islamic Republic of Iran

Report by the Director General
....
26. The Agency continues to verify the non-diversion of declared nuclear material in Iran.

Iran has cooperated with the Agency in improving safeguards measures at FEP and in providing the Agency with access to the IR-40 reactor for purposes of design information verification. Iran has not, however, implemented the modified text of its Subsidiary Arrangements General Part, Code 3.1, on the early provision of design information.

27. Iran has not suspended its enrichment related activities or its work on heavy water related projects as required by the Security Council.

28. Contrary to the requests of the Board of Governors and the Security Council, Iran has neither implemented the Additional Protocol nor cooperated with the Agency in connection with the remaining issues of concern which need to be clarified to exclude the possibility of military dimensions to Iran’s nuclear programme. Regrettably, the Agency has not
been able to engage Iran in any substantive discussions about these outstanding issues for over a year. The Agency believes that it has provided Iran with sufficient access to documentation in its possession to enable Iran to respond substantively to the questions raised by the Agency. However, the Director General urges Member States which have
provided documentation to the Agency to work out new modalities with the Agency so that it could share further documentation with Iran, as appropriate, since the Agency’s inability to do so is rendering it difficult for the Agency to progress further in its verification process.

29. It is critical for Iran to implement the Additional Protocol and clarify the outstanding issues in order for the Agency to be in a position to provide credible assurance about the absence of undeclared nuclear material and activities in Iran.

30. The Director General will continue to report as appropriate.

Middle East Inside Line: Fatah and Israel, US Withdrawal From Iraq to Turkey?, Israel-Sweden Fight (Round 3)

Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis

Fatah Backs Away from Negotiations with Israel: Nabil Shaath, who was re-elected in August to Fatah's central committee and is a former Palestinian prime minister and foreign minister, dismissed a return to negotiations unless Israel endorses freezing of settlements both in the West Bank and East Jerusalem; not temporarily but permanently.

During Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s meeting with President Obama's special envoy George Mitchell in London last week, the leader of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, had showed willingness to meet Netanyahu at next month’s UN General Assembly session in New York.

Shaath’s recent statement plays down the importance of this expected meeting, especially if it does not reflect a consensus in the balance of power between the "new blood" and the veterans of Fatah.

Earlier US Withdrawal from Iraq? The Turkish newspaper Milliyet claimed on Monday that the Obama Administration is preparing to announce the withdrawal of American soldiers from Iraq eight months before the official date of August 2010 as a Christmas surprise to Americans.

The article claims that new landing fields and prefabricated houses are being constructed by American soldiers in the Incirlik base in Turkey. A report supposedly posted to Incirlik’s 39th Wing Commandership is calling for immediate preparations for the intake of 100,000 of the 142,000 US forces in Iraq.

Milliyet asserts that some high-ranking American soldiers believe the plans are not being disclosed because of Iraqi President Jalal Talabani’s insistence that the earlier withdrawal will prompt greater instability in his country.

Iraq - "Shoe Thrower" Al-Zaidi to Go Free: Iraqi journalist Muntazar al-Zaidi, will be released on 14 December 2009, exactly one year after he threw his shoes at President George W. Bush, after his three-year sentence was reduced for good behavior.

The Israel-Sweden Fight: Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt denied Haaretz's report that Sweden would work with Italy to pass a resolution condemning anti-Semitism at an upcoming European foreign ministers meeting.

The Swedish news agency TT reports the statement of the Swedish foreign ministry's head of communications, Cecilia Julin: "From the Swedish side we have no plans to handle this question through the informal foreign ministers' meeting in Stockholm." She added Bildt's suggestion that Italy Foreign Minister Frattini's comment must have arisen through an "Italian misunderstanding".

Swedish President Fredrik Reinfeldt also contributed to the discussion at a press conference in Stockholm. He said, "We cannot be asked by anyone to contravene the Swedish constitution, and this is something we will also not do within the European Union."

Israel's unofficial threat is on the table now. Bildt is supposed to visit Israel on September 11 for a one-day visit. According to Israeli diplomatic officials, "it would cast a serious cloud over the trip and Sweden's efforts to play a significant role in the diplomatic process" if there is no condemnation of the "stolen Palestianian organs" story from the Swedish side.