UPDATED Iran Special: How Do You Analyse a Non-Event? (Lucas)

UPDATE 5 September: The Iranian media is still on the theme that the Western media has mis-reported the grand and glorious events of Qods Day (even though the same Iranian media is no longer asserting a figure for the number who attended the grand and glorious events). The Islamic Republic News Agency complains that the Western media used themes such as "the presence of security forces in the streets", "the attack on Mehdi Karroubi's home" and the "lack of grassroots people in the protests" to divert attention.



My favourite account, however, is on my new favourite website, www.barackobama.ir. Its report, "What Mainstream Media Didn't Say About Iran Quds Day Rallies", wanders about for a bit --- "International Quds Day was really unique this year...[as] it coincided with the Israel-Palestine peace conference" --- without mentioning incidential details like crowd numbers, significant gatherings, or statements.

Finally, it seizes on this explanation from a university student named Nasser: ""Ramadan is the month of fasting in which Muslims refrain from eating as well as drinking from dawn until sunset according to their religious training. Considering the temperature of 37 degrees Centigrade (99 degrees Fahrenheit) in the sunny weather of Tehran, it may be surprising when we see how decisive Iranians are for demonstrating in support of other Muslims."

I have to tell you that watching the events of Qods (Palestine) Day became a very disconcerting experience. That's not because of a rush of news --- as with other red-letter days in Iran after the 2009 Presidential election --- but because I couldn't make out any development of significance.

How do you analyse a non-event?

Almost no one expected a show of opposition yesterday. The regime's battering of the Green Movement, activist groups, reformist politicians, journalists, and other proven or potential dissidents --- reinforced by a heavy security presence in Tehran before and on Qods Day --- ensured there would not be a mass gathering.

Instead, the question was what the Government would produce. The setpieces were obvious: a Presidential speech before Tehran Friday Prayers and rallies in Iran's cities, trumpeted by all broadcasting and press outlets. Some of the script was already written: with 1500 special buses and free travel on the metro in the capital, a crowd was ensured. Denunciation of Israel and support for the Palestinian people would be the platform for the condemnation of foreign enemies.

But how much of a crowd? How spontaneous and enthusiastic for their leaders, as opposed to angered against the Zionists?

Early on, the build-up went to plan. Press TV added a nice touch, flying in Lauren Booth --- sister-in-law of former British Prime Minister Tony Blair --- to see events first-hand on the Tehran streets. She chattered enthusiastically about "the biggest protest" she had ever seen in any capital city, a line backed up by state media proclamations of a million Iranians who would be turning out.

Under the giant marquee at Tehran University for Friday Prayers, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad delivered his lines as a seasoned performer. The felony of the Palestinian occupation was detailed but converted to a promise of victory with the downfall of the Zionists. The perfidy of Israel's Western supporters was set out and knocked back with the assurance of Iran's superiority. The audience put in its chants at checkpoints throughout the speech.

And then....

Well, that became the tricky part for an observer. Clearly Ahmadinejad was not going to refer to Iran's internal situation --- for months, he has used the international as a shiny object to hold attention, given the political and economic tensions within his country. But with no Supreme Leader on hand --- Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami, who led Friday Prayers, was a non-person on the day; I struggled to find any reference to his words --- and with no other regime show-stopper planned, how could one judge any supposed public acclamation of the regime?

The most obvious marker was the size of the crowd for Qods Day marches. But, at least when I scanned Press TV, Lauren Booth had disappeared. There had been early-morning shots of rallies in Kerman in central Iran and Oroumiyeh in the northwest, but those were not repeated and there were no other cities added to the list. And in Tehran, all I had were generic overhead shots which appeared to be of 3 September 2010. There was no correspondent amongst the supposed masses, no first-hand account of the Great Rally.

Late in the day, photographs from the Iranian Student News Agency gave some ground-level confirmation of a march filling a Tehran avenue, but even these were swallowed up by a curious theme in some of the Iranian media. The story in Tabnak, Mehr, and Fars was no longer the proud declaration of millions who had turned out; instead, it was a bitter denunciation of foreign media for "censoring" reports which could have shown that millions had turned out. And then a further twist: Fars put out a happier article that the Associated Press of "the West" had reported the million-person figure.

That could have been my salvation for an analysis. The only problem is that I could not find any AP article on the rally, let alone one that was putting up seven figures for the crowd.

And this morning, returning to my search, even the mention of Qods Day has disappeared. Some of the Iranian media has shuffled to other possibilities to show the regime's legitimacy; some --- notably the conservative Khabar Online --- have returned to their pre-Friday stance of implied or even direct criticism of Ahmadinejad.

How do you analyse a non-event?

This past week, a new theme for backers of the Government -- supported by a speculative piece by Hooman Majd, who is now based in the US --- has been that the President is quite secure in his position. Iranian politics, the argument goes, will have its quarrels, but the Supreme Leader will oversee a stable system that moves securely towards the next Presidential elections in 2013. Nothing to see here, those of you who are pressing for "regime change", move along.

Maybe. Maybe a Government doesn't need an overwhelming show of support at a regime rally. Maybe it can make it through another week or month or year with the assurance that, while there are worries within the system over economic, political, and legal issues, no one wants to push the conflict to a dramatic showdown. Maybe legitimacy does not have to be through the eager endorsement of the people but through a resignation to events.

Maybe. But then again, Friday was not just an issue of a non-event. There was also an event which clearly did happen, a different kind of rally outside the residence of an opposition cleric named Mehdi Karroubi.

The Green Movement is allegedly dead. The reformist opposition is broken. The Supreme Leader has re-asserted his authority overseeing the Iranian system. The President is confident and secure with his backing of 25 million votes from 2009. Iran is united behind its leaders....

And yet for five nights in a row the pro-regime crowd gathered to box in a 73-year-old cleric, who allegedly receiving only several hundred thousand votes in that same 2009 election, and his family. As the nights passed, they shouted slogans, declaring that they were denouncing Mehdi Karroubi as fervent loyalists to Ayatollah Khamenei. They daubed graffiti, damaged walls and the entrance to the apartment complex.

Then on Thursday night they threw Molotov cocktails. They shot the streetlights. They damaged the water pipes, cut off the electricity and, at least temporarily, the phone lines. They tried to enter Karroubi's apartment. All the time, as they had for the four previous nights, security forces stood by until Special Guards arrived a few hours later.

(One might also note the less-reported incident in Shiraz yesterday, when another pro-regime crowd --- described as 200 to 300 Basij militia by Rah-e-Sabz --- allegedly entered and shut down the Qoba Mosque of Grand Ayatollah Dastgheib, a critic of the Government. Worshipers were said to have been beaten.)

These are the forces of a regime that no longer fears a challenge?

There may be those who will write off the five-day siege as the work of rogue elements --- nothing to do with the leadership. Let's assume that is true. Then where is the Supreme Leader's supposed authority over his country and his people?

An EA correspondent nailed the conundrum: either Ayatollah Khamenei knew about these attacks, allowing them to escalate, or he did not have the power to halt the momentum. And President Ahmadinejad? You probably can stick with "knew about these attacks".

Have another look at our piece, via Pedestrian, on the "Green Sedition Festival" that the regime hosted this week. Here are the posters, not only public but given a prominent gallery, that tie Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi to a devious Barack Obama, the evil Zionists, the "terrorist" Mujahedin-e-Khalq. This is not just a political response to an opposition. This is a declaration of war against the enemies, the enemies who have supposedly already been vanquished.

Because the opposition is not vanquished. They are not mounting a frontal attack --- they can't match the heavy forces that the Government can mobilise with the Revolutionary Guard, the security services, the Ministry of Intelligence, the judiciary. Instead, they are sniping from the flanks. Prominent reformists are thrown back into prison but return to the charge of "election fraud" with a complaint, supposed by a leaked audio, of military interference in the 2009 election. Political parties which supposedly have been banned still put out statements; Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mohammad Khatami continue to disseminate the message, "We are the media." Activists assume a lower profile but find ways to keep the issues of rights alive. Mehdi Karroubi will not shut up about injustices and abuses, even when his house is surrounded and his family is threatened for five days.

I'm not sure I would go as far as Khodnevis, which proclaimed, "This Qods Day goes to Karroubi." I don't think this Qods Day went to anyone as a prize --- not to the Supreme Leader, not to Ahmadinejad, not to the Revolutionary Guard. It just came and went, all the Iranian media's cheerleading efforts trailing away into a whimper of, "Why did no one notice?"

There was much condemnation of Zionists, but no sign of legitimacy. There was a full sketch of the "West", but the picture of "Iran" was still blurred.

There were lots of security forces, but this is not a secure regime.

Comments

[WitteKr]

I think you analyzed this non-event pretty well, Scott! :-)

[Observer]

Suggested headline for Qods - 'Iran's regime shoots itself in the foot' -- which is the result of their Karroubi caper. And the whole world knows the story. The reality of it, mentioned in the past, is stunning today. Here's wishing Mr. Karroubi and his family only the best.

[Catherine]

The WSJ doesn't have any problem analysing the day :-)

Day of Anti-Israel Protest Reveals Iran's Internal Rift
http://online.wsj.com/article_email/SB10001424052748704855104575470020696330864-lMyQjAxMTAwMDAwMzEwNDMyWj.html

They repeat reports from opposition websites that: "The homes of Mr. Karroubi and Mr. Mousavi remained under siege Friday, according to opposition websites. Phone lines to the leaders' houses were also cut, the websites reported".

??

[Arshama]

Thank you, Scott, for this comprehensive account on a failed demonstration of regime power.
I am especially happy that you mention Hooman Majd's provocative piece, targeting sanctions and largely ignoring the impact of popular resistance, i.e. the Green movement.
Fortunately all those heavy security measures in Tehran and other major cities have clearly disproved his alleged insignificance of popular protests. I would even go further and point out that tightening up the public sphere has completely backfired on the regime -- no chance to attract the masses, when you post dark-clad anti-riot forces along major streets and crossroads: in the end AN and his cronies found themselves trapped in the ghetto they had set up for the Greens.
Constantly attacking Karroubi's home was their second major mistake for several reasons: apart from discounting the alleged insignificance of the opposition leader as you pointed out, Mousavi's subsequent remarks that the people are a much bigger threat to the regime than Israel have further weakened its cheap propaganda of a "foreign enemy".
Iranian commenters have already pointed out the significance of this new approach to a sacrosanct IR slogan, redirecting it to the domestic enemy: http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,5971429,00.html
I should also add Babak Dad's thoughtful analysis on Fatemeh Karroubi's letter to the SL, putting him in a lose-lose situation: if he is responsible for these attacks, he has lost all moral legitimacy, if he denies responsibility, it proves his incompetence to rule the country: http://babakdad.blogspot.com/2010/09/blog-post_02.html

Arshama

[Catherine]

I'm sure the WSJ picked out that photo with special care :-)

[Chris Crowstaff]

What is interesting about your report is the comment that "Lauren Booth — sister-in-law of former British Prime Minister Tony Blair " was flown in by Press TV.
if you look at the UK staff who work for Press TV on this wiki page http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Press_TV it is quite n eye-opener.

Forgive me if I may seem naive but isn't Press TV the official voice of the Iranian Government?
The same government which is locking up all its dissidents and lashing women etc etc etc?
Perhaps Lauren Booth had a word about human-rights abuses while she was there?
...............

[Kurt]

Ugh, I read that Lauren Booth rant. Gee, towing the state line, and she says she had no problems? Imagine that...

The Palestinian cause is not aided by such "human rights" hypocrites with blinders firmly on.

---

Also, I didn't think the Hooman Majd article presented a scene quite as peachy as asserted. More that they were trying to put up a front of things going on as usual. But, truth be told, he seemed to contradict himself a little, as earlier in the article he suggested as much in tone. In any case, I don't think I'd put him in the apologist column just yet - though he may well indeed be overcompensating for his Khatami family ties.

In any case, thanks for this. It was funny that all over the boards on another site to see them all bemoan in concert that Ghods Day didn't get the coverage it "deserved." Before reading this, I basically made many of the same points you just did. So, thanks for validating my ego. ;-)

[Catherine]

RE: “”Ramadan is the month of fasting in which Muslims refrain from eating as well as drinking from dawn until sunset according to their religious training.

What?!? A government-sponsored demonstration WITHOUT cake and juice?!? Well, yeah, in that case, those who still showed should get credit for it! :-)

[Arshama]

Kurt,

Thanks for your remarks on the Hooman Majd article. To me it appears somehow as a chest thumping about "international sanctions won't divide us".
Obviously the opposite is the case: while AN boasts of 20,000 new jobs due to sanctions, yesterday Larijani warned of their disastrous effects. More importantly Majd made a wrong link by relating ongoing domestic battles with sanctions. The 2009 election coup was only the first step of AN's long-term policy to take over the whole IR with his Bassiji and IRGC goons and to change it into a unified paramilitary dictatorship. Eliminating the reformists from politics was only the beginning, and perhaps the hardliners are slowly realising that they will be the next. Since July 2009 the IRGC has taken over most of the domestic key industries (so-called privatisation), and the NIOC is likely to follow, more than 40 ambassadors were exchanged, Rahim Mashaei and 3 other AN crownies are up to take over foreign policy decisions, and especially plainclothes thugs showed up before the parliament, menacing to bomb it.

This week 13 of 21 ministers have to appear in Majlis to answer questions, and today AN's representatives announced the withdrawal of the 5th Budget Plan from parliament, protesting against necessary legal corrections by the representatives.

To sum up: AN continues with his policy of creating adversaries and chaos not only in the international sphere, but also in domestic affairs. While sanctions put additional pressure on the regime, they are certainly not the main cause for growing rifts within the system.

Arshama