The Latest from Iran (10 September): Khamenei Takes the Pulpit

1945 GMT: The Detained Americans. We have urgently updated the news and offered a snap anlaysis of the postponement of the release of detained US citizen Sarah Shourd. She was supposed to be freed ina ceremony in Tehran tomorrow morning.

1720 GMT: Eid al-Fitr Round-Up (cont. --- 1519 GMT). Rah-e-Sabz claims that in Najafabad the ceremony of followers of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, who died last December, was much better attended than the Government's gathering.

Green Movement followers also attended Ayatollah Sane'i's ceremony in his office in Qom. The cerlic declared, "Our committment to Eid al-Fitr should be that we should divert from yesterday's wrong path, which dishonoured Islam or its principles, and do everything to compensate. Everyone who took the problematic way yesterday, causing injustice for people, should know that he will be punished on Doomsday."

NEW Iran Urgent Analysis: Judiciary Overrules Ahmadinejad — Release of US Detainee Shourd Delayed
NEW Iran Interview: Fatemeh Hashemi “Every Iranian Seeking Rights is Green”
Iran Exclusive: The Escalating Battle With Ahmadinejad
Iran Special: Abdollah Momeni Writes Supreme Leader About His Detention & Torture
Iran Document: Karroubi on the Siege of His Home and of the Iranian People (8 September)
The Latest from Iran (9 September): US Hiker Shourd to Be Released

Khodnevis, under the headline, "Siege, prohibitions, and Threats", claims that all Sunni ceremonies were forbidden in Tehran. Security forces allegedly hung banners declaring, "The unifying Eid al-Fitr ceremonies will be held at Tehran University, led by Supreme Leader, leader of all Muslims of the world."

1710 GMT: Sanctions Watch. Another major European company --- the Linde Group of Germany, an engineering firm and one of the world’s biggest industrial gas suppliers --- has decided to cut ties. Spokesman Uwe Wolfinger said the company recently decided “to stop our activities in Iran and with Iran completely”.

Dutch-based plastics and chemical firm LyondellBasell said just over two weeks ago that it was ending business in Iran.

1535 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. More on the latest court hearing for journalist and activist Heshmatollah Tabarzadi....

Tabarzadi, whose lawyer Nasrine Sotoudeh was detained last Saturday, told the court, "We did not topple the Shah to recreate the same situation. This court has no legal authority to judge accusations against me."

1519 GMT: Eid al-Fitr Round-Up. At the start of today, we wondered if today's Eid al-Fitr ceremonies, marking the end of Ramadan, would be a sign of support for the regime and Government. The results appear to be inconclusive.

Iranian media features photographs of crowds in Tehran. Khabar Online adds details: more than 40,000 security forces and police were mobilised, 700 taxis and 6000 buses and vans  were organised for free fares to the ceremony. Two tons of dates were distributed. About 100 ambulances with 1000 personnel
were on hand.

In Bandar Abbas in southern Iran, the authorities appear to have chosen a dusty dockyard outside town, possibly to avoid Green "interference". probably most of the praying people are poor rustabouts and their wives. Photos show Mashhad's Imam Reza shrine was crowded, but Isfahan's Naghshe Jahan square was half-empty.

Rah-e-Sabz claims that security forces prevented the ceremony in the house of Habibollah Peyman, the leader of an Islamic Socialist party.

Ayatollah Sane'i said in his sermon that  "the evil-doer will be punished on earth as well" and warned, "Whoever took the wrong road yesterday by doing injustice to people, should take a better road today." In what one EA correspondents sees as a tacit apology for acts of the past 31 years, he continued, "If we did injustice yesterday, believing it would help us to stay in power, know that no one will stay with the help of injustice."

In Shiraz, Ayatollah Dastgheyb --- prevented from speaking last Friday by a pro-regime crowd ---  told his audience to "beware of doomsday and the devil" and commanded, "Don't allow anything in the name of Basij [militia] and upholding clerical rule."

1435 GMT: Diplomatic Move? Georges Malbrunot claims at Le Figaro that Hussein Ali Zadeh, a counselor at the Iranian Embassy in Finland, is leaving his post to support the Green Movement. The decision will supposedly be announced in the next few hours.

Earlier this year Iranian diplomats in Norway and Japan resigned their positions in sympathy with the demands of the opposition.

1425 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Protester Nezam Hassanpour has been sentenced to six years in prison.

1350 GMT: Kiss and Make Up? It appears that the imminent release of detained US hiker Sarah Shourd might be the occasion for a reconciliation between President Ahmadinejad and the Foreign Ministry.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast said that the freeing of Shourd was made possible by the President's efforts.

Tension between Ahmadinejad and his diplomats had risen because of the President's appointment of four special envoys, with Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki only withdrawing hisresignation after the intervention of the Supreme Leader's office..

1300 GMT: Execution Watch. Lecturer and author Ahmad Ghabel has been summoned to answer questions in Revolutionary Guard. Ghabel claims this was prompted by his revelation, upon release from Mashhad Prison, of mass executions in that facility.

1120 GMT: Economy Watch. In a jab at the Government, Grand Ayatollah Makarem-Shirazi has said that the official statistics for inflation do not match up with what Iran's people are experiencing.

1115 GMT: Today's All-Is-Not-Well Alert. Iran's Minister of Oil Masoud Mirkazemi has been proclaming this week that the country is now self-sufficient in gasoline production.

He may want to have a word with Iran's statisticians. Latest figures indicate that gasoline imports rose 135% in the first five months of the Iranian year (March-August).

0903 GMT: Converting the US message. This was the statement from US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton at the Council on Foreign Relations on Wednesday: "It is definitely our policy to support freedom and human rights inside Iran, and we have done so by speaking out. We have done so by trying to equip Iranians with the tools, particularly the technology tools that they need, to be able to communicate with each other to make their views known."

And here is how it is presented in Fars News: "US Confession of Efforts to Support the Insurrection in Iran".

0900 GMT: Unity? Before his sermon, the Supreme Leader met with Iranian officials. An EA correspondent reports two notable absentees: the head of the Guardian Council, Ahmad Jannati, and former President Hashemi Rafsanjani.

0830 GMT: Authority Re-Asserted? The official outlet Islamic Republic News Agency does have wall-to-wall coverage of the Eid al-Fitr ceremonies, but much of the message seems tangential or diversionary.

IRNA carries the official statement from President Ahmadinejad's website to the heads of Islamic countries, calling for the strengthening of unity and friendship amongst all nations based on monotheism.

But any reference to Iran's own affairs has to come indirectly through "All Have Come", a short item and photo noting the attendance of "all authorities", such as Ahmadinejad, Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, Guardian Council head Ahmad Jannati, 1st Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi, and the head of Iran's armed forces, General Hassan Firouzabadi.

0815 GMT: Authority Re-Asserted? The Supreme Leader has led prayers for Eid al-Fitr, marking the end of the holy month of Ramadan, at Tehran University.

A week ago, the regime tried to establish its leadership of the people through the commemoration of Qods (Palestine) Day. That effort quickly receded into disappointment, with little evidence of a mass response. On that occasion, however, the lead speaker was President Ahmadinejad. So could Ayatollah Khamenei's camp be hoping that the claim of velayat-e-faqih (clerical authority) had a greater influence than that of the current Government's legitimacy?

Press TV's report on the Khamenei sermon focuses on the Supreme Leader's denunciation of  direct Israel-Palestine talks as "a cover-up for Israeli crimes against the Palestinian nation". Khamenei said:

The United States and the West just sit back and watch the suppression of the Palestinian nation, and yet they arrange talks for peace, what peace? Between which people?...Tyrants wish to push the Palestinian issue to a corner however a strong turnout at the annual International Quds Day rallies indicates motivation and hope among Muslims worldwide.

The Supreme Leader also referred to the need to help those suffering from Pakistan's floods.

Hmm, we'll keep reading but the re-assertion of last Friday's message and the denunciation of the US and Zionist does not seem to address the internal issues or even bolster the Government. There is no follow-up coverage of note on Press TV's broadcast.

Meanwhile, there is a shot across the Supreme Leader's bow. Ayatollah Sane'i, a prominent critic of the Government and even Khamenei, has declared that the Iranian people can properly commemorate Eid al-Fitr by remaining at home rather than coming out to hear clerics.

0710 GMT: The US Detainees. We're looking for further developments on yesterday's news that Tehran will release Sarah Shourd, one of three US hikers detained in July 2009 along the Iraq-Iran border, on Saturday.

Meanwhile, James Miller of Dissected News assesses the possible Iranian motives behind the move: "[This] may be the perfect excuse to save face during Iran’s ongoing political limbo."

0605 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Arjang Davoudi, nearing the 60th day of his hunger strike in Rajai Shahr Prison, has vowed to continue it after a meeting with his wife.

Davoudi demanded that phone calls and visits to the prison return to normal, that the position of the prison's head be addressed, andthat his house confiscated by the judiciary be returned to his wife.

Ali Jamali, a member of the alumni organisation Advar-e Tahkim Vahdat, is reported to be in solitary confinement, three weeks after his detention.

The Latest from Iran (8 September): Sakineh Execution Suspended?

2055 GMT: Karroubi Watch. Mehdi Karroubi has posted an open letter to the Iranian nation, declaring, "Our leaders have no control over their disturbed nerves and minds."

2035 GMT: The Battle Within. Interesting to see that another website has picked up on MP Ali Motahari's declaration, which we reported earlier (see 1544 GMT), that the Parliament must prevent an emergence of “dictatorship” in the Ahmadinejad Government and that, if it failed to do so, it had betrayed the nation.

Even more interesting to note the the website is the English-language version of Mehr, which is not known as a prominent critic of the President and his allies.

NEW Iran Feature: Re-visiting the 2009 Election (Keshavarz)
NEW Iran Snap Analysis: Who is Running Foreign Policy?
Iran Exclusive: Rafsanjani Declares “I Won’t Bear This Situation”
Iran Exclusive: FM Mottaki Attempted to Resign over Ahmadinejad Foreign Policy
The Latest from Iran (7 September): The Real Stories

2025 GMT: US "Iran is a Dictatorship" Alert. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, responding to a question after her speech today at the Council on Foreign Relations, declared, "I don''t think there''s any doubt that Iran is morphing into a military dictatorship with a sort of religious ideological veneer. It is becoming the province of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and in concert with some of the clerical and political leadership."

While those sentences are seizing headlines tonight, they are far from new. Clinton used similar language in Qatar in February, as the US tried to forge an alliance of Arab countries against Tehran. At that time, the dictatorship line appeared to be another arrow in Washington's quiver of measures to bring pressure on Iran over the nuclear issue and regional contests.

Initially, it might not be clear if the declaration on this occasion was anything more than a rhetorical flourish. In her speech --- a grand tour of why US leadership is necessary around the world --- the Secretary of State devoted some time to Iran's nuclear programme but not a single word to the internal political and legal situation. She focused on the theme of Iran as the international enemy to be repelled with the assertion, "Early returns from implementation of the sanctions are that they''re feeling the economic effects. We would hope that that would lead them to reconsider their positions, not only with respect to nuclear weapons but, frankly, the export of terrorism."

Yet these paragraphs, immediatedly following the "military dictatorship", point to a somewhat different US strategy, "I don't think that's what the Iranian Revolution for a republic of Iran, an Islamic republic of Iran, was ever meant to become. So I know there is a great deal of ferment and activities inside that we do try to support.

"At the same time, we don't want to either endanger or undermine those very same people so that it becomes, you know, once again, the U.S. doing something instead of the U.S. being supportive of what indigenous efforts are taking place."

So is there a US strategy not only to acknowledge the justice and rights issues but to bolster the activists pursuing them? It is here the vision becomes muddled because of an apparent uncertainty as to where Iranian events may head. Clinton could only offer a vague notion, "I think that there is a very sad confluence of events occurring inside Iran that I think eventually --- but I can''t put a time frame on it -- the Iranian people themselves will respond to."

1710 GMT: Power (Price) Surge. Deputy Minister of Energy Mohammad Behzad, commenting on the rise in electricity prices (reportedly five times for some Tehran residents), says subsidies have been cut for people who use too much energy.

Behzad offered the consolation that consumers can pay bills by installments.

1705 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Two Haft Tapeh Sugar Cane factory workers, Alireza Saeedi and Behrouz Mollazadeh, have each received one-year jail sentences.

The two labor activists were arrested last December and released on $70,000 bail. Their "crime" was satirical clips of the Supreme Leader on their cell phones.

1555 GMT: The Rahnavard Challenge. More on the letter from Zahra Rahnavard to the head of judiciary, Sadegh Larijani (see 1210 GMT), "Don't Erase the Freedom and Rights of Citizens".

We are all responsible for the people's future....What misery has come to our country, in which opposition people and families' houses get raided, in which people get arrested and kept as hostages, while their relatives get thretened? Which of these actions is Islamic or human?

Rahnavard continues:

How do you expect society to remain sane, when thugs attack women and youngsters...?
What has happened? Is this a war between Iran and Saddam or against helpless families, detained by thugs, which were certainly armed and equipped by a part of the rulers?

Before God enters and burns all together, I expect from you as the head of judges to restore justice to the people. I expect you to appear at least once in public and boldly condemn all officials and sentence them.

1544 GMT: Parliament v. President. Leading MP Ali Motahari is speaking up again, claiming that silence on government deviance paves the way for dictatorship. Motahari criticised the Majlis for bowing to government threats on subsidy cuts, hijab and chastity issues, the 5th Budget Plan, and foreign policy.

Motahari's take-away line: Ahmadinejad has to decide if he wants velayat-e-faqih (clerical authority) or velayat-e-Mashai (the authority of Presidential Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai).

Former Presidential candidate Nategh Nouri has said that the President's refusal to implement laws is dictatorship. Reformist MP Ali Akbar Oulia adds that Ahmadinejad's withdrawal of the 5th Budget Plan, because of Parliamentary amendments, "ridicules everyone". (The Majlis Research Center concludes that, during 2008-2009, the Government has applied only six of 112 Majlis laws in due time; 58 were implemented late and 48 not at all.)

MP Javad Jahangirzadeh claims that 45 MPs have already signed for the impeachment of energy minister Majid Namjoo and that many others support the move.

1540 GMT: Claim of Day. The Supreme Leader's representative to the Revolutionary Guard has said that the 12th "hidden" Imam will appear when the people support Ayatollah Khamenei.

1530 GMT: The Post-Election Dead. Peyke Iran has posted a list of 150 people whom it says have been killed in the conflict since the June 2009 election.

1525 GMT: Sanctions Watch. Lebanon's Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh has said that Lebanese banks will have to comply with stricter sanctions by the UN, the US, and the European Union on Iran: “It is up to the Lebanese banks to act in accordance with their interests and be sure, if they have to make an operation, that it’s an operation that can’t be contested internationally.”

Salameh said that the latest UN resolution “is very clear and we will respect it and make sure it is respected".

1520 GMT: Execution (Sakineh) Watch. The European Parliament has condemned the death sentence on Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani by 658-1, with 22 abstentions.

1320 GMT: Execution (Sakineh) Watch. An EA correspondent adds more reason for caution:

Mehmanparast had said this [that the sentence for stoning was suspended during the summer] yesterday during his usual press briefing together with the ongoing case for murder, but for some reason world media decided to ignore it yesterday and pick up the identical Press TV quote today.

The alarming thing in all this is that Mehmanparast is the Foreign Ministry spokesman and is making statements on a case which has absolutely nothing to do with his ministry. The Justice ministry and the judicial authority, both of which have people capable of reading out statements, have kept near-absolute silence on the matter.

If Sakineh is indeed hanged, Mehmanparast can wash his hands off it by saying that his ministry does not hang people and the judicial authorities can say that we have not given any assurances all along.

1310 GMT: Neither the Islamic Republic News Agency nor Fars News are carrying the Mehmanparast statement about the sentencing of Sakineh Mohammad Ashtiani.

1250 GMT: Execution (Ashtiani) Watch. The Western media is buzzing over "a suspension of the death sentence" of Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani, convicted of adultery and later complicity in the murder of her husband.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast has said, "The sentencing of Ms. Ashtiani for adultery has been stopped and [her case] is being reviewed again, and her sentencing for complicity in murder is in process."

That somewhat confusing statement does appears to be a limited change in the Iranian position: earlier this summer, Tehran suspended the sentence of execution by stoning, the original penalty imposed on Ashtiani, but left open execution by a means such as hanging. (Most of the Western media have overlooked or misunderstood this, as they report that it is Mehmanparast's statement today that suspends stoning.)

However, I am being cautious. Mehmanparast may be saying that the execution on the adultery charge is only being held up while the "complicity in murder" moves to the conclusion of sentencing, which of course could be the death penalty.

Yesterday Mehmanparast warned European countries such as France and Italy not to interfere in the country and he repeated that line today: "Defending a person on trial for murder should not be turned into a human rights matter." He repeated that, if this was such a matter, European countries could free all incarcerated murderers in the name of human rights.

Mehmanparast then attempted to justify the death punishment for adultery: "even "Western countries, which are not sensitive about family values, take offence at betrayal".

1240 GMT: Lawyer Watch. A further note on yesterday's court appearance of journalist and activist Heshmatollah Tabarzadi (see 0720 GMT): he was represented by Mohammad Ali Dadkhah, as his lawyer Nasrine Sotoudeh was detained on Saturday.

1210 GMT: Justice. In the wake of the siege of Mehdi Karroubi's house, Zahra Rahnavard has written the head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, to demand justice for the Iranian people.

Wondering if intimidations, detentions, and abuses were "Islamic" and "human", Rahnavard asked Larijani how he expects society to remain "healthy" when homes and student dormitories are attacked.

1030 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Mahmoud Bagheri, a member of the Iranian Teachers Trade Union, has been released after two months detention.

0910 GMT: Sanctions Watch. South Korea has announced new sanctions, including review of most financial transactions, against Iran. An expanded blacklist will affect more than 100 Iranian firms and individuals, inspections of suspicious cargo will be expanded, and investments in Iran's energy sector will be limited.

Seoul also said Iran's Bank Mellat faces "a heavy penalty" for moving hundreds of millions of dollars in transactions for Iranian nuclear, missile and defense agencies.

0905 GMT: Can't Be Clearer Than This. Back to our main story today....

Press TV headlines on the letter signed by 122 MPs over the President's appointment of special envoys for foreign policy, "Iran Lawmakers Criticize Ahmadinejad".

0858 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch (Election Fraud Edition). Detained reformist politician Mostafa Tajzadeh has re-asserted, in a visit with his wife, his conviction that the 2009 Presidential election was a "fraud", involving officials such as Guardian Council head Ayatollah Jannati and the Revolutionary Guard. He asked why the Iranian judiciary has not addressed the complaint that he and six other prominent detainees have filed over alleged manipulation of the vote.

Tajzadeh also said that officials have yet to answer his question, "On what charge am I detained?"

The politician's defiance comes after sustained attempts by the regime --- through intimidation, threats, and propaganda --- for a Tajzadeh "confession" that the reformists knew they had lost the Presidential ballot.

0855 GMT: We have posted an analysis by Fatemeh Keshavarz, "Revisiting the 2009 Election".

0750 GMT: Sanctions Watch. The US Treasury has added Iranian-owned, German-based European-Iranian Trade Bank AG to its sanctions blacklist, claiming the bank has provided a financial lifeline to Iranian companies involved in weapons proliferation.

The Hamburg-based bank, known as EIH Bank, has been banned from the US financial system. Tehran has reportedly increased its reliance on EIH, amidst sanctions, to conduct business on behalf of blacklisted companies.

0720 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Kurdish writer, poet, and translator Aziz Naseri has reportedly been arrested.Another session in the trial of journalist and activist Heshmatollah Tabarzadi was held yesterday. Tabarzadi reportedly used the appearance to talk about the conditions in Rajai Shahr Prison (see 0705 GMT).

0715 GMT: Gasoline Magic. For the sake of balance, given the apparent reference by the Supreme Leader to Iran's "poor economic performance" (see 0655 GMT), we must issue an All-is-Well Alert:

Iran’s oil minister, Massoud Mirkazemi, announced that Iran has now become self-sufficient in its petrol production and is no longer dependent on foreign imports in this regard.

Iranian media report that Massoud Mirkazemi told reporters at a press conference today that Iran is now producing 66 million litres of petrol per day.

He said that Iran was formerly producing 44 million litres a day and in order to supply the domestic demand 20 million litres were imported from abroad....

Mirkazemi said: "Since 20 days ago we started increasing production in the production units and finally managed to bring our daily production up to 66.5 million litres per day in the past week."

0705 GMT: Torture Watch. HRANA is claiming that the death of prisoner Mohsen Beikvand in Rajai Shahr Prison on 31 August was a killing organised by officials: "Prisoners confined in Rajai Shahr prison believe prison authorities directly issued an order [to other prisoners] to murder Beikvand."

In May, HRANA released a video of alleged abuse of Beikvand, with the breaking of both legs and burns on his body. He was reportedly moved to solitary confinement days later.

Earlier this week, EA featured a report by Loes Bijnen on the "gruesome" conditions in Rajai Shahr.

0655 GMT: We begin this morning with a snap analysis, "Who Is Running Iran's Foreign Policy?"

Meanwhile, as we note the latest speech of the Supreme Leader, proclaiming that Iran will repel international sanctions, this summary is striking:

[The Leader] reiterated that the enemies seek to frustrate the Iranian people by exerting economic pressure on the country with the intent of turning the nation against the government by blaming it for poor economic performance.

Ayatollah Khamenei said their goal is to cut ties between the government and nation.

However, they have not known the Iranian nation and are mistaken in their calculations.

"Poor economic performance"? Is that an implicit admission of Iran's difficulties --- identified in a scathing statement by the head of the Supreme Audit Court this week --- with manufacturing, imports, unemployment, privatisation, and even its energy sector?

UPDATED Iran Special: How Do You Analyse a Non-Event? (Lucas)

UPDATE 5 September: The Iranian media is still on the theme that the Western media has mis-reported the grand and glorious events of Qods Day (even though the same Iranian media is no longer asserting a figure for the number who attended the grand and glorious events). The Islamic Republic News Agency complains that the Western media used themes such as "the presence of security forces in the streets", "the attack on Mehdi Karroubi's home" and the "lack of grassroots people in the protests" to divert attention.



My favourite account, however, is on my new favourite website, www.barackobama.ir. Its report, "What Mainstream Media Didn't Say About Iran Quds Day Rallies", wanders about for a bit --- "International Quds Day was really unique this year...[as] it coincided with the Israel-Palestine peace conference" --- without mentioning incidential details like crowd numbers, significant gatherings, or statements.

Finally, it seizes on this explanation from a university student named Nasser: ""Ramadan is the month of fasting in which Muslims refrain from eating as well as drinking from dawn until sunset according to their religious training. Considering the temperature of 37 degrees Centigrade (99 degrees Fahrenheit) in the sunny weather of Tehran, it may be surprising when we see how decisive Iranians are for demonstrating in support of other Muslims."

I have to tell you that watching the events of Qods (Palestine) Day became a very disconcerting experience. That's not because of a rush of news --- as with other red-letter days in Iran after the 2009 Presidential election --- but because I couldn't make out any development of significance.

How do you analyse a non-event?

Almost no one expected a show of opposition yesterday. The regime's battering of the Green Movement, activist groups, reformist politicians, journalists, and other proven or potential dissidents --- reinforced by a heavy security presence in Tehran before and on Qods Day --- ensured there would not be a mass gathering.

Instead, the question was what the Government would produce. The setpieces were obvious: a Presidential speech before Tehran Friday Prayers and rallies in Iran's cities, trumpeted by all broadcasting and press outlets. Some of the script was already written: with 1500 special buses and free travel on the metro in the capital, a crowd was ensured. Denunciation of Israel and support for the Palestinian people would be the platform for the condemnation of foreign enemies.

But how much of a crowd? How spontaneous and enthusiastic for their leaders, as opposed to angered against the Zionists?

Early on, the build-up went to plan. Press TV added a nice touch, flying in Lauren Booth --- sister-in-law of former British Prime Minister Tony Blair --- to see events first-hand on the Tehran streets. She chattered enthusiastically about "the biggest protest" she had ever seen in any capital city, a line backed up by state media proclamations of a million Iranians who would be turning out.

Under the giant marquee at Tehran University for Friday Prayers, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad delivered his lines as a seasoned performer. The felony of the Palestinian occupation was detailed but converted to a promise of victory with the downfall of the Zionists. The perfidy of Israel's Western supporters was set out and knocked back with the assurance of Iran's superiority. The audience put in its chants at checkpoints throughout the speech.

And then....

Well, that became the tricky part for an observer. Clearly Ahmadinejad was not going to refer to Iran's internal situation --- for months, he has used the international as a shiny object to hold attention, given the political and economic tensions within his country. But with no Supreme Leader on hand --- Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami, who led Friday Prayers, was a non-person on the day; I struggled to find any reference to his words --- and with no other regime show-stopper planned, how could one judge any supposed public acclamation of the regime?

The most obvious marker was the size of the crowd for Qods Day marches. But, at least when I scanned Press TV, Lauren Booth had disappeared. There had been early-morning shots of rallies in Kerman in central Iran and Oroumiyeh in the northwest, but those were not repeated and there were no other cities added to the list. And in Tehran, all I had were generic overhead shots which appeared to be of 3 September 2010. There was no correspondent amongst the supposed masses, no first-hand account of the Great Rally.

Late in the day, photographs from the Iranian Student News Agency gave some ground-level confirmation of a march filling a Tehran avenue, but even these were swallowed up by a curious theme in some of the Iranian media. The story in Tabnak, Mehr, and Fars was no longer the proud declaration of millions who had turned out; instead, it was a bitter denunciation of foreign media for "censoring" reports which could have shown that millions had turned out. And then a further twist: Fars put out a happier article that the Associated Press of "the West" had reported the million-person figure.

That could have been my salvation for an analysis. The only problem is that I could not find any AP article on the rally, let alone one that was putting up seven figures for the crowd.

And this morning, returning to my search, even the mention of Qods Day has disappeared. Some of the Iranian media has shuffled to other possibilities to show the regime's legitimacy; some --- notably the conservative Khabar Online --- have returned to their pre-Friday stance of implied or even direct criticism of Ahmadinejad.

How do you analyse a non-event?

This past week, a new theme for backers of the Government -- supported by a speculative piece by Hooman Majd, who is now based in the US --- has been that the President is quite secure in his position. Iranian politics, the argument goes, will have its quarrels, but the Supreme Leader will oversee a stable system that moves securely towards the next Presidential elections in 2013. Nothing to see here, those of you who are pressing for "regime change", move along.

Maybe. Maybe a Government doesn't need an overwhelming show of support at a regime rally. Maybe it can make it through another week or month or year with the assurance that, while there are worries within the system over economic, political, and legal issues, no one wants to push the conflict to a dramatic showdown. Maybe legitimacy does not have to be through the eager endorsement of the people but through a resignation to events.

Maybe. But then again, Friday was not just an issue of a non-event. There was also an event which clearly did happen, a different kind of rally outside the residence of an opposition cleric named Mehdi Karroubi.

The Green Movement is allegedly dead. The reformist opposition is broken. The Supreme Leader has re-asserted his authority overseeing the Iranian system. The President is confident and secure with his backing of 25 million votes from 2009. Iran is united behind its leaders....

And yet for five nights in a row the pro-regime crowd gathered to box in a 73-year-old cleric, who allegedly receiving only several hundred thousand votes in that same 2009 election, and his family. As the nights passed, they shouted slogans, declaring that they were denouncing Mehdi Karroubi as fervent loyalists to Ayatollah Khamenei. They daubed graffiti, damaged walls and the entrance to the apartment complex.

Then on Thursday night they threw Molotov cocktails. They shot the streetlights. They damaged the water pipes, cut off the electricity and, at least temporarily, the phone lines. They tried to enter Karroubi's apartment. All the time, as they had for the four previous nights, security forces stood by until Special Guards arrived a few hours later.

(One might also note the less-reported incident in Shiraz yesterday, when another pro-regime crowd --- described as 200 to 300 Basij militia by Rah-e-Sabz --- allegedly entered and shut down the Qoba Mosque of Grand Ayatollah Dastgheib, a critic of the Government. Worshipers were said to have been beaten.)

These are the forces of a regime that no longer fears a challenge?

There may be those who will write off the five-day siege as the work of rogue elements --- nothing to do with the leadership. Let's assume that is true. Then where is the Supreme Leader's supposed authority over his country and his people?

An EA correspondent nailed the conundrum: either Ayatollah Khamenei knew about these attacks, allowing them to escalate, or he did not have the power to halt the momentum. And President Ahmadinejad? You probably can stick with "knew about these attacks".

Have another look at our piece, via Pedestrian, on the "Green Sedition Festival" that the regime hosted this week. Here are the posters, not only public but given a prominent gallery, that tie Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi to a devious Barack Obama, the evil Zionists, the "terrorist" Mujahedin-e-Khalq. This is not just a political response to an opposition. This is a declaration of war against the enemies, the enemies who have supposedly already been vanquished.

Because the opposition is not vanquished. They are not mounting a frontal attack --- they can't match the heavy forces that the Government can mobilise with the Revolutionary Guard, the security services, the Ministry of Intelligence, the judiciary. Instead, they are sniping from the flanks. Prominent reformists are thrown back into prison but return to the charge of "election fraud" with a complaint, supposed by a leaked audio, of military interference in the 2009 election. Political parties which supposedly have been banned still put out statements; Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mohammad Khatami continue to disseminate the message, "We are the media." Activists assume a lower profile but find ways to keep the issues of rights alive. Mehdi Karroubi will not shut up about injustices and abuses, even when his house is surrounded and his family is threatened for five days.

I'm not sure I would go as far as Khodnevis, which proclaimed, "This Qods Day goes to Karroubi." I don't think this Qods Day went to anyone as a prize --- not to the Supreme Leader, not to Ahmadinejad, not to the Revolutionary Guard. It just came and went, all the Iranian media's cheerleading efforts trailing away into a whimper of, "Why did no one notice?"

There was much condemnation of Zionists, but no sign of legitimacy. There was a full sketch of the "West", but the picture of "Iran" was still blurred.

There were lots of security forces, but this is not a secure regime.

The Latest from Iran (4 September): A Qods Day Failure?

2045 GMT: Academic Corner. The Deputy Treasurer of Tehran University, Mohammad Hossein Moqimi, has announced that about 40 faculty members have "retired" since March.

Moqimi that all the academics had retired according to regulations and legal provisions and that this must not be seen as a political issue.

In recent months, Iranian authorities have replaced the heads of more than 20 universities and education centres.

NEW Iran Breaking: Uncertainty if Lawyer Nasrine Sotoudeh Arrested
NEW Iran Special: How Do You Analyse a Non-Event? (Lucas)
NEW Iran Overview: “A Small Rally to Make More Enemies” (Shahryar)
NEW Iran Propaganda Special: The Green Sedition Festival
UPDATED Iran Video: The Claimed Attack on Karroubi’s House (2/3 September)
Iran Video and English Summary: Mehdi Karroubi after 5th Night of Pro-Regime Siege (3 September)
Iran Urgent: Breaking News with Video on Day 5 of Karroubi “Siege”
The Latest from Iran (3 September): Qods Day and the Karroubi Siege

2010 GMT: The Karroubi Siege. The reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front has written to Mehdi Karroubi, regretting the poor performance of the police in protecting the Karroubi home from pro-regime attackers.

2005 GMT: Economy Watch. Several hundred people have protested at Sari in Mazandaran province in northern Iran over alleged discrimination in allocation of jobs.

The demonstrators claimed that, rather than employing based on ability, authorities show favouritism towards under-qualified candidates. Some protesters claimed that those who were supporters of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad were given preference.

1935 GMT: We have posted a separate feature on emerging news about the possibility that lawyer and women's right activist Nasrine Sotoudeh, summoned to court today, has been arrested.

1925 GMT: The Attack on the Clerics. Radio Zamaneh reports that Grand Ayatollah Dastgheib returned to Qoba Mosque in Shiraz, a day after it was attacked and closed by a pro-regime crowd.

After iron fences set up after the assault were taken down, Ayatollah Dastgheib gave a speech condemning the assault, insisting that even the Supreme Leader could not have supported the attack.

The website adds more details about Friday's events. They followed announcement signed by “the pious followers of the Supreme Leader in Fars Province and the holy city of Shiraz”, distributed in mosques on Thursday night, calling for the prosecution of Ayatollah Dastgheib. The statement accused the cleric of being the “perpetrator of satanic plans” and “speaking the language of the enemy” as well as “threatening the religious beliefs of the people” by sitting at the head of Qoba Mosque.

The statement demanded that Ayatollah Dastgheib be removed and warned the provincial and city authorities that if they do not comply with their demands, they would have to take matters into their own hands.

The Governor of Shiraz, Hossein Ghasemi, reportedly appeared at Qoba Mosque on Friday, but he was forced to leave when the crowd hurled rocks at his car.

1915 GMT: The Karroubi Siege. A group from the Association of Combatant Clerics visited Mehdi Karroubi at his house today.

1910 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Kalameh claims that officials at Evin Prison have told the political detainees of Ward 350 that they have to write letters of repentance if they want phone lines restored. The telephone privileges were reportedly revoked more than seven weeks ago.

1825 GMT: The Karroubi Siege. Mehdi Karroubi's son Hossein has talked to Deutsche Welle about the attacks on his family's house and messages of support from politicians, clerics, and activists.

Hossein Karroubi said some of the attackers were from a local detention centre, indicating regime complicity in the siege.

An Iranian activist adds to our report yesterday that a man and woman were beaten, with the woman's headscarf removed, by the pro-regime crowd. They were Karroubi supporters Hadi Shirpour and his wife, who were watching the attack. The activist claims that police, rather than stopping the assault, joined in.

Shirpour and his wife were then put into a police van and taken away.

1815 GMT: Execution (Ashtiani) Watch. Sajad Ghaderzadeh, the son of condemned detainee Sakineh Mohammadi-Ashtiani, says his mother has been sentenced to 99 lashes for a photograph published of a woman --- falsely claimed to be Ashtiani --- without a headscarf.

Ghaderzadeh said he learned of the punishment from released inmates. Ashtiani has been given the death penalty for adultery.

On 28 August, The Times of London published a photograph that it said was Ashtiani without hijab. Six days later, it said the attribution of the photo was incorrect.

The Guardian of London adds more details about the episode, including the confusion over the mistaken photograph.

1655 GMT: All the President's Men. Omid Memarian writes about the ruthless rise and possible fall of former Tehran Prosecutor General and Presidential aide Saeed Mortazavi, who was recently suspended by the judiciary from his post because of complicity in the post-election abuses and killings at Kahrizak Prison.

In 2004, as one of 20 journalists, bloggers, and website managers detained in a regime crackdown, Memarian had first-hand experience of Mortazavi:

In my case, he warned me what would happen if I ever talked about what had gone on in the prison. “Anyone can be in a car accident, from members of parliament to taxi drivers to plumbers. You journalists are no exception,” he said.

1645 GMT: Sanctions Claim of the Day. This has to be one of the most creative economic analyses I have ever encountered....

First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi has declared that sanctions will bring 200,000 new jobs to Iran. His reasoning is that "the West" will lose 150,000 to 200,000 employees because of the downturn in trade with Tehran and Iran will naturally fill that gap.

1625 GMT: The Karroubi Siege. Former President Mohammad Khatami has called Mehdi Karroubi to condemn the attacks on the Karroubi home.

We have posted new claimed video of Thursday night's attack.

1620 GMT: Secure Regime? Tehran Police Chief Esmail Ahmadi-Moghaddam has criticised counterparts in Iran's security agencies for ordering the mobilisation of forces on Thursday, the day before Qods Day.

1229 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. An Iranian activist reports that, as expected (see 0855 GMT), journalist and activist Shiva Nazar Ahari has been brought to court to face charges including "mohareb" (war against God). She was brought to the courtroom in handcuffs.

It is also reported that Saeed Haeri, a member of Committee of Human Rights Reporters, went on trial today.

Leading reformist politician Mohsen Safaei Farahani, who suffered a heart attack this week in detention, has called home. He says he is better but he is not allowed to say in which hospital he is being treated.

1224 GMT: It's All in the Terminology. Today's post-Qods Day hot topic on the Iranian news portal Balatarin? Using the model of "occupied Palestine" to present an "occupied Iran".

1220 GMT: The US and the Battle Within. Writing in OpenDemocracy, Omid Memarian offers a useful overview of Iran's internal situation and this challenging conclusion:

By removing the threat of a military attack, Washington would make the job of Tehran’s hardliners more difficult, and encourage fragmentation among the top layers of the political elite. In the present circumstances, the end of the military option would create space for those in Iran seeking to hold the hardliners in check, and offer an opening to Iranian democracy and the Iranian people.

1215 GMT: Worried Regime? Daneshjoo News reviews the heavy security presence in Babol and Mashhad as well as Tehran on Qods Day.

0855 GMT: Kamran Asa, brother of the slain protester Kianoush Asa, and Bijan Rezaie are scheduled to appear in court tomorrow.

And if earlier reports are correct, activist Shiva Nazar Ahari, detained since last July and facing a charge of "mohareb" (war against God), will be in court today.

0655 GMT: We have three specials this morning: Scott Lucas tries to figure out the significance of the "non-event" of Qods Day, Josh Shahryar looks at a "small rally that made more enemies", and Pedestrian notes the regime's exhibition of the "Green Sedition Festival".

0600 GMT: The Karroubi Siege. Mir Hossein Mousavi has put out a message condemning the attacks on the home of Mehdi Karroubi: "These black and odious measures will not block the freedom of the people."

0530 GMT: Here's the curious thing: for some in the Iranian system, Qods (Palestine) Day is already gone. Hours after the President's speech, the Friday Prayer sermon by Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami, the wall-to-wall declarations on Iranian media of Tehran's leadership of the movement against Israeli oppression, and the Government's rally, the occasion is nowhere to be found on Press TV's website this morning.

It has almost disappeared from the homepage of the Islamic Republic News Agency, which has moved to a rather dry statement by key Presidential advisor Mojtaba Hashemi Samareh on Iran as the "guiding harbinger of monotheism...and resistance against the oppressors and the hegemonic powers in the world".

Fars News does have the event as its Number 3 item on its pages, but the story seems a bit desperate to prove significance: "A United Arab Emirates newspaper...announced that a big march in Tehran and other Iranian cities, along with some other countries such as Turkey and India, and Indonesia was held."

And Khabar Online, leading site of the challenge within the establishment to the President, has already --- in its top feature --- returned to the issue of how to achieve "conservative unity", including reaching out to "reformers".

There's more, but I think you know where I'm going with this. Full analysis later today....

The Latest from Iran (3 September): Qods Day and the Karroubi Siege

2250 GMT: Before shutting down, we have posted the claimed video of Thursday night/Friday morning's attack on Mehdi Karroubi's house.

2220 GMT: Ending with Gratitude. EA took the night off for a music festival (yes, an EA Music Corner special may be coming in the morning).

Thanks to all for contributing information and ideas on an interesting day.

We'll be back early in the morning with the latest news and a series of special analyses on what this Qods Day meant for the Iranian regime and the opposition.

NEW Latest Iran Video: The Claimed Attack on Karroubi’s House (2/3 September)
NEW Iran Video and English Summary: Mehdi Karroubi after 5th Night of Pro-Regime Siege (3 September)
NEW Iran Urgent: Breaking News with Video on Day 5 of Karroubi “Siege”
Latest Iran Video: The Rooftop “Allahu Akbars” (2 September)
Pro-Regime Media Asks, “Which is Worse: Stoning or Prostitution?”
NEW Iran Document: Karroubi-Mousavi Meeting on Eve of Qods Day (31 August)
The Latest from Iran (2 September): Karroubi, Mousavi, and Qods Day

1930 GMT: Larijani Talks Tough on US. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, speaking to a Qods Day audience, has maintained his public line that it is not possible to hold direct talks with U.S. officials.

“Negotiation with the US is not possible and no one has the right to make compromise with the Great Satan,” said Larijani.

However, on the wider (and relevant) issue of whether Tehran would discuss uranium enrichment with the 5+1 Powers, which include the US, Larijani was ambiguous. He said that, according to the Supreme Leader’s guidelines, Iran’s policy is negotiation but not with the US.

1900 GMT: Checking in from a music festival in the centre of Britain, I find Press TV giving me the truth on the Karroubi siege.

It is largely a straightforward report of "groups of people...preventing (Karroubi) from leaving his residence in Tehran" to attend the Qods Day rally, although the casualties --- a Karroubi bodyguard is reportedly in a coma --- are reduced to "four people were reported wounded".

Then the blame sets in: "Mehdi Karroubi was one of the controversial figures following the 2009 presidential election in Iran and the frenzy that followed the vote in the wake of baseless fraud allegations against President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's re-election.

Public anger against Karroubi were intensified after his and other opposition supporters attempted to obstruct last year's Day of Quds rallies by invoking purely nationalistic slogans.

He also created controversy and public rage by airing rumors of jail-rape by unidentified individuals that had claimed to have been detained during the post-election riots."

1620 GMT: How Big Was That Rally? Fars News' lead story is that the Associated Press has reported on Iran's anti-Israel protests today, with "millions" on the streets. Earlier today, Iranian media were concerned that outlets of the "West" were minimising the crowd.

So it would seem the regime is getting very concerned that the world know that today proves it has a lot of support from its people. I'm looking for the proof: so far I can't track down the Associated Press report.

1615 GMT: Karroubi Watch. Mehdi Karroubi's Saham News, down for a few hours this afternoon (see 1445 GMT), is back on-line.

1600 GMT: How Big was the Regime Rally? Iranian Students News Agency posts a set of photographs of today's march in Tehran for Qods Day. This is the largest crowd shot in the set:



1555 GMT: Attacking the Clerics. Aftab News offers a pro-Government version of the clash today in which a pro-regime crowd --- reported by Rah-e-Sabz as "200 to 300 Basij" (see 1400 GMT) --- entered and shut down the Qoba Mosque in Shiraz, the base of Government critic Ayatollah Dastgheib.

The Facebook site supporting Mir Hossein Mousavi posts photos of those injured in the attack.

1445 GMT: Attacks on Karroubi. Mehdi Karroubi's website Saham News (see 1420 GMT) has been taken down by an apparent attack diverting readers to a "dummy" site on financial matters.

1435 GMT: Today's Alice-in-Wonderland Statement. Tabnak accuses foreign media --- who operate, if they can report at all, under strict Government oversight --- of "censoring" reports on the turnout for the Qods Day rally. Mehr levels a similar charge at CNN.

Am I sensing regime worry that the rally may not have been the grand success it wanted? Fars attacks the BBC and al-Arabiya for minimising the turnout.

1430 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Aftab News reports that former President Hashemi Rafsanjani joined today's march for Qods Day.

1425 GMT: Sanctions Watch. Japan has imposed new sanctions on Iran over Tehran's nuclear programme, banning transactions with some Iranian banks and targeting energy-related investments.

Japan approved sanctions against Iran last month, but US officials have been pressing Tokyo to adopt tougher measures.

Despite the pressure, Japan --- a major importer of Iranian crude oil --- but did not impose any restrictions on its oil imports.

1420 GMT: Karroubi Watch. Mehdi Karroubi's Saham News, a primary source of information about the siege of the Karroubi house, has been off-line for the past hour, first with a blank screen and now with a "403 Forbidden" error.

1405 GMT: Perspective. An EA source from Iran offers the following, "The deaths are going on all the time; recently two people from my town were killed by the regime. The families are forced to say they died of natural causes, but everyone knows that the regime killed them. And that is going on in every city, town, and village of the country. People are just disappearing. And those who are being killed are the people no one hears of, and those who do have a voice are being silenced.'

1400 GMT: Shutting Down the Clerics --- Clash in Shiraz. Rah-e-Sabz provides more information on the closure of the Qoba Mosque in Shiraz, the base of Government critic Grand Ayatollah Dastgheib (see 1050 GMT), this morning. The website claims that 200-300 Basij entered the mosque and proceeded to attack the cleric’s students.

1355 GMT: Academic Corner. Iran’s Deputy Minister of Higher Education, Bagher Khorramshad, has cancelled his trip to the Netherlands after protests by the Dutch-Iranian community.

The visit, organized by Clingendael (the Netherlands Institute of International Relations) and the Iran's Embassy was scheduled for 17 September.

1340 GMT: The Karroubi Siege. It looks like this story may take over from the Government's Qods Day showpiece. The latest is that Grand Ayatollah Bayat Zanjani has called Mehdi Karroubi to express his support and praise his resilience, according to reliable sources. Bayat Zanjani denounced the attacks on the Karroubi house and hoped that the pro-regime crowd would cease their activities.

One of Imam Khomeini’s grandsons, Seyed Yasser Khomeini, also visited Mehdi Karroubi to express his condolences and denounce the assailants.

1215 GMT: The Karroubi Siege. The Assembly of Teachers and Researchers of Qom Seminary School has issued a statement strongly condemned the attacks by a pro-regime crowd on Mehdi Karroubi's home.

Karroubi's Etemade Melli party have also put out a statement of condemnation.

1210 GMT: More Tough Talk (see 1040 GMT). General Mohammad Reza Naqdi, the commander of the Basij military, has complained that "our hands are closed due to treaties" when it comes to actions of Zionists. Naqdi continues, "We are waiting for a foolish move by Israel to erase it."

1050 GMT: Controlling the Clerics. The Qoba Mosque, the base of Grand Ayatollah Dastgheib, is closed for prayers, even though it is a Friday.

Dastgheib, far from coincidentally, is a prominent critic of the Government.

1040 GMT: Today's Tough Talk. Let's hand over to the head of Iran's armed forces, General Hassan Firouzabadi: ""Our developed weapons can hit any part of the Zionist regime....We hope not to be forced to attack their nuclear facility [at Dimona]."

0950 GMT: Karroubi Watch. More information from Saham News on last night's violence by the pro-regime crowd surrounding Mehdi Karroubi's house: the website claims a husband and wife were beaten. The incident allegedly began when the woman, who had her headscarf removed, was spotted using a mobile phone.

Saham News also claims the couple were detained.

Mir Hossein Mousavi and his wife Zahra Rahnavard, in a phone call to Karroubi, offered their full support "and strongly condemned the hideous and foolish actions of a group of thugs pretending to be Muslims".
0920 GMT: Rah-e-Sabz reports that security forces have flooded 7 Tir and Enghelab Squares and lined roads leading to 7 Tir from the north. Several people have been detained, one allegedly for wearing a Green bandana.

The website also claims security forces with batons are boarding metro cars in Tehran to seek out any Greens. Forces at checkpoints in Tehran and are stopping and searching people.

Mehdi Karroubi's son Hossein says his family home is still surrounded, preventing his father from getting to the Qods Day rally.

0833 GMT: Ahmadinejad's speech ends. Nothing new in a statement which was meant to whip up crowd sentiment against Israel, and certainly no references to the internal situation (apart from the President's repeated, unintended ironies on allowing the people to choose and the media to speak and on the flaws of the West in supporting "sham elections").

The far more important issue, I suppose, will be the reaction that the President's speech gets from others in the Iranian establishment as well as from the population.
0825 GMT: I'm sorry, but I can't keep a straight face when Ahmadinejad enjoins the "West" to "listen to your people" and "let the media speak": "Do not silence them. Let them raise their voice."

0820 GMT: Ahmadinejad, addressing "the US and the West", challenges them --- as the authors of the United Nations Human Rights Charter --- to support a referendum in Palestine and to hold referenda amongst their peoples over Palestine policy.

0815 GMT: Ahmadinejad now appealing to Arab leaders to "let your people be free" to "bring down the Zionist regime". He says, "Instead of relying on American and the West, you should rely on God."

0810 GMT: Ahmadinejad says, "Israel-Palestine direct talks have already failed."

0808 GMT: Ahmadinejad now criticising sham elections in Iraq. (No, he showed no sense of irony or self-reflection with that statement.)

0803 GMT: Now Ahmadinejad gets confident saying that, with the rise of Qods Day, the Zionists are under pressure and "are on the verge of collapse".
0800 GMT: More of the same from Ahmadinejad, as crowd breaks in with "Death to Israel".

0755 GMT: Karroubi Watch. Saham News reports that more than 20 motorcyclists have surrounded Mehdi Karroubi's residential complex.

0748 GMT: More from Ahmadinejad on "moral corruption" and "cultural devastation" of the "Zionist regime": "No culture is immune".

Ahmadinejad says the Zionists have "manipulated history of World War II" with the symbols of the Holocaust", which he calls a "likely crime". He adds that politicians in Europe or North America are "selected by the Zionists".

0740 GMT: President Ahmadinejad is now speaking at Tehran Friday Prayers, commenting on the repression of the Palestinian people and the "occupation" of the area over the past 60 years.

0710 GMT: Press TV is now featuring crowd shots from Kerman in central Iran and Oroumiyeh in northwestern Iran as well as Tehran.

No significant action, so Press TV is playing up the presence of Lauren Booth (the half-sister of Cherie Blair, wife of former British Prime Minister Tony Blair) as their correspondent in the centre of Tehran. She is enthusiastic, opening, "Well, I've never seen so many people take to the streets of a capital city in my life. Here we are...on Al-Qods Day 2010 with a million people expected....The message coming from Tehran today, not just to Palestine but to the world, is one of steadfastness, a message of solidarity."

0645 GMT: MediaWatch. No real movement yet, so we settle for the unintended irony of analyst Seyed Mohammad Marandi in Press TV's studio: "After the Revolution, people power is more important."

The host and Marandi continue to talk about "people power, a factor, a big factor". At no point do they reflect, as they speak in post-election Iran, that the term might hold significance in a context different from that of Palestine.

0635 GMT: The Karroubi story continues to hold centre stage as we wait for the Qods Day rallies for the regime. We have posted the video and English summary of the cleric's TV interviews after the violence on the fifth night of the siege of his house by a pro-regime crowd.

0535 GMT: Today is Qods (Palestine) Day in Iran. Established by Ayatollah Khomeini on the last Friday of the holy month of Ramadan, the occasion traditionally shows solidarity with the Palestinian people as they seek independence. Last year, however, the day took on a different tone, as those protesting the 2009 Presidential election and the Government's actions demonstrated on the streets.

A year later, after the regime's suppression of dissent and amidst the continuing turmoil within the system, there is unlikely to be a significant show of opposition. Instead, the question is: can the regime and Government offer an enthusiastic demonstration of support for their legitimacy? The showpiece will be Friday Prayers in Tehran, where President Ahmadinejad will take the podium before Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami offers the Friday Prayer speech.

Already, however, the Government's effort has been complicated, if not overshadowed, by the events of Thursday night outside the residence of Mehdi Karroubi. The fifth night of the siege by a pro-regime crowd escalated into violence that caused damage and injures, as assailants tried to get into the Karroubi house.

An EA correspondent gets to the heart of the issue and thus the possible difficulties for the regime, even as it tries to parade its authority today:

Either Ayatollah Khamenei knews and approved the attack, or he is unable to stop it. Ahmadinejad on the other hand probably knev and secretly approves.This whole sordid affair casts a sorry light over the government's insecurity and its reliance on intimidation and threats in order to cow the opposition into silence.

We have continuing coverage of the Karroubi siege in a separate entry.