UPDATED Iran Special: How Do You Analyse a Non-Event? (Lucas)

UPDATE 5 September: The Iranian media is still on the theme that the Western media has mis-reported the grand and glorious events of Qods Day (even though the same Iranian media is no longer asserting a figure for the number who attended the grand and glorious events). The Islamic Republic News Agency complains that the Western media used themes such as "the presence of security forces in the streets", "the attack on Mehdi Karroubi's home" and the "lack of grassroots people in the protests" to divert attention.



My favourite account, however, is on my new favourite website, www.barackobama.ir. Its report, "What Mainstream Media Didn't Say About Iran Quds Day Rallies", wanders about for a bit --- "International Quds Day was really unique this year...[as] it coincided with the Israel-Palestine peace conference" --- without mentioning incidential details like crowd numbers, significant gatherings, or statements.

Finally, it seizes on this explanation from a university student named Nasser: ""Ramadan is the month of fasting in which Muslims refrain from eating as well as drinking from dawn until sunset according to their religious training. Considering the temperature of 37 degrees Centigrade (99 degrees Fahrenheit) in the sunny weather of Tehran, it may be surprising when we see how decisive Iranians are for demonstrating in support of other Muslims."

I have to tell you that watching the events of Qods (Palestine) Day became a very disconcerting experience. That's not because of a rush of news --- as with other red-letter days in Iran after the 2009 Presidential election --- but because I couldn't make out any development of significance.

How do you analyse a non-event?

Almost no one expected a show of opposition yesterday. The regime's battering of the Green Movement, activist groups, reformist politicians, journalists, and other proven or potential dissidents --- reinforced by a heavy security presence in Tehran before and on Qods Day --- ensured there would not be a mass gathering.

Instead, the question was what the Government would produce. The setpieces were obvious: a Presidential speech before Tehran Friday Prayers and rallies in Iran's cities, trumpeted by all broadcasting and press outlets. Some of the script was already written: with 1500 special buses and free travel on the metro in the capital, a crowd was ensured. Denunciation of Israel and support for the Palestinian people would be the platform for the condemnation of foreign enemies.

But how much of a crowd? How spontaneous and enthusiastic for their leaders, as opposed to angered against the Zionists?

Early on, the build-up went to plan. Press TV added a nice touch, flying in Lauren Booth --- sister-in-law of former British Prime Minister Tony Blair --- to see events first-hand on the Tehran streets. She chattered enthusiastically about "the biggest protest" she had ever seen in any capital city, a line backed up by state media proclamations of a million Iranians who would be turning out.

Under the giant marquee at Tehran University for Friday Prayers, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad delivered his lines as a seasoned performer. The felony of the Palestinian occupation was detailed but converted to a promise of victory with the downfall of the Zionists. The perfidy of Israel's Western supporters was set out and knocked back with the assurance of Iran's superiority. The audience put in its chants at checkpoints throughout the speech.

And then....

Well, that became the tricky part for an observer. Clearly Ahmadinejad was not going to refer to Iran's internal situation --- for months, he has used the international as a shiny object to hold attention, given the political and economic tensions within his country. But with no Supreme Leader on hand --- Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami, who led Friday Prayers, was a non-person on the day; I struggled to find any reference to his words --- and with no other regime show-stopper planned, how could one judge any supposed public acclamation of the regime?

The most obvious marker was the size of the crowd for Qods Day marches. But, at least when I scanned Press TV, Lauren Booth had disappeared. There had been early-morning shots of rallies in Kerman in central Iran and Oroumiyeh in the northwest, but those were not repeated and there were no other cities added to the list. And in Tehran, all I had were generic overhead shots which appeared to be of 3 September 2010. There was no correspondent amongst the supposed masses, no first-hand account of the Great Rally.

Late in the day, photographs from the Iranian Student News Agency gave some ground-level confirmation of a march filling a Tehran avenue, but even these were swallowed up by a curious theme in some of the Iranian media. The story in Tabnak, Mehr, and Fars was no longer the proud declaration of millions who had turned out; instead, it was a bitter denunciation of foreign media for "censoring" reports which could have shown that millions had turned out. And then a further twist: Fars put out a happier article that the Associated Press of "the West" had reported the million-person figure.

That could have been my salvation for an analysis. The only problem is that I could not find any AP article on the rally, let alone one that was putting up seven figures for the crowd.

And this morning, returning to my search, even the mention of Qods Day has disappeared. Some of the Iranian media has shuffled to other possibilities to show the regime's legitimacy; some --- notably the conservative Khabar Online --- have returned to their pre-Friday stance of implied or even direct criticism of Ahmadinejad.

How do you analyse a non-event?

This past week, a new theme for backers of the Government -- supported by a speculative piece by Hooman Majd, who is now based in the US --- has been that the President is quite secure in his position. Iranian politics, the argument goes, will have its quarrels, but the Supreme Leader will oversee a stable system that moves securely towards the next Presidential elections in 2013. Nothing to see here, those of you who are pressing for "regime change", move along.

Maybe. Maybe a Government doesn't need an overwhelming show of support at a regime rally. Maybe it can make it through another week or month or year with the assurance that, while there are worries within the system over economic, political, and legal issues, no one wants to push the conflict to a dramatic showdown. Maybe legitimacy does not have to be through the eager endorsement of the people but through a resignation to events.

Maybe. But then again, Friday was not just an issue of a non-event. There was also an event which clearly did happen, a different kind of rally outside the residence of an opposition cleric named Mehdi Karroubi.

The Green Movement is allegedly dead. The reformist opposition is broken. The Supreme Leader has re-asserted his authority overseeing the Iranian system. The President is confident and secure with his backing of 25 million votes from 2009. Iran is united behind its leaders....

And yet for five nights in a row the pro-regime crowd gathered to box in a 73-year-old cleric, who allegedly receiving only several hundred thousand votes in that same 2009 election, and his family. As the nights passed, they shouted slogans, declaring that they were denouncing Mehdi Karroubi as fervent loyalists to Ayatollah Khamenei. They daubed graffiti, damaged walls and the entrance to the apartment complex.

Then on Thursday night they threw Molotov cocktails. They shot the streetlights. They damaged the water pipes, cut off the electricity and, at least temporarily, the phone lines. They tried to enter Karroubi's apartment. All the time, as they had for the four previous nights, security forces stood by until Special Guards arrived a few hours later.

(One might also note the less-reported incident in Shiraz yesterday, when another pro-regime crowd --- described as 200 to 300 Basij militia by Rah-e-Sabz --- allegedly entered and shut down the Qoba Mosque of Grand Ayatollah Dastgheib, a critic of the Government. Worshipers were said to have been beaten.)

These are the forces of a regime that no longer fears a challenge?

There may be those who will write off the five-day siege as the work of rogue elements --- nothing to do with the leadership. Let's assume that is true. Then where is the Supreme Leader's supposed authority over his country and his people?

An EA correspondent nailed the conundrum: either Ayatollah Khamenei knew about these attacks, allowing them to escalate, or he did not have the power to halt the momentum. And President Ahmadinejad? You probably can stick with "knew about these attacks".

Have another look at our piece, via Pedestrian, on the "Green Sedition Festival" that the regime hosted this week. Here are the posters, not only public but given a prominent gallery, that tie Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi to a devious Barack Obama, the evil Zionists, the "terrorist" Mujahedin-e-Khalq. This is not just a political response to an opposition. This is a declaration of war against the enemies, the enemies who have supposedly already been vanquished.

Because the opposition is not vanquished. They are not mounting a frontal attack --- they can't match the heavy forces that the Government can mobilise with the Revolutionary Guard, the security services, the Ministry of Intelligence, the judiciary. Instead, they are sniping from the flanks. Prominent reformists are thrown back into prison but return to the charge of "election fraud" with a complaint, supposed by a leaked audio, of military interference in the 2009 election. Political parties which supposedly have been banned still put out statements; Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mohammad Khatami continue to disseminate the message, "We are the media." Activists assume a lower profile but find ways to keep the issues of rights alive. Mehdi Karroubi will not shut up about injustices and abuses, even when his house is surrounded and his family is threatened for five days.

I'm not sure I would go as far as Khodnevis, which proclaimed, "This Qods Day goes to Karroubi." I don't think this Qods Day went to anyone as a prize --- not to the Supreme Leader, not to Ahmadinejad, not to the Revolutionary Guard. It just came and went, all the Iranian media's cheerleading efforts trailing away into a whimper of, "Why did no one notice?"

There was much condemnation of Zionists, but no sign of legitimacy. There was a full sketch of the "West", but the picture of "Iran" was still blurred.

There were lots of security forces, but this is not a secure regime.

The Latest from Iran (3 September): Qods Day and the Karroubi Siege

2250 GMT: Before shutting down, we have posted the claimed video of Thursday night/Friday morning's attack on Mehdi Karroubi's house.

2220 GMT: Ending with Gratitude. EA took the night off for a music festival (yes, an EA Music Corner special may be coming in the morning).

Thanks to all for contributing information and ideas on an interesting day.

We'll be back early in the morning with the latest news and a series of special analyses on what this Qods Day meant for the Iranian regime and the opposition.

NEW Latest Iran Video: The Claimed Attack on Karroubi’s House (2/3 September)
NEW Iran Video and English Summary: Mehdi Karroubi after 5th Night of Pro-Regime Siege (3 September)
NEW Iran Urgent: Breaking News with Video on Day 5 of Karroubi “Siege”
Latest Iran Video: The Rooftop “Allahu Akbars” (2 September)
Pro-Regime Media Asks, “Which is Worse: Stoning or Prostitution?”
NEW Iran Document: Karroubi-Mousavi Meeting on Eve of Qods Day (31 August)
The Latest from Iran (2 September): Karroubi, Mousavi, and Qods Day

1930 GMT: Larijani Talks Tough on US. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, speaking to a Qods Day audience, has maintained his public line that it is not possible to hold direct talks with U.S. officials.

“Negotiation with the US is not possible and no one has the right to make compromise with the Great Satan,” said Larijani.

However, on the wider (and relevant) issue of whether Tehran would discuss uranium enrichment with the 5+1 Powers, which include the US, Larijani was ambiguous. He said that, according to the Supreme Leader’s guidelines, Iran’s policy is negotiation but not with the US.

1900 GMT: Checking in from a music festival in the centre of Britain, I find Press TV giving me the truth on the Karroubi siege.

It is largely a straightforward report of "groups of people...preventing (Karroubi) from leaving his residence in Tehran" to attend the Qods Day rally, although the casualties --- a Karroubi bodyguard is reportedly in a coma --- are reduced to "four people were reported wounded".

Then the blame sets in: "Mehdi Karroubi was one of the controversial figures following the 2009 presidential election in Iran and the frenzy that followed the vote in the wake of baseless fraud allegations against President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's re-election.

Public anger against Karroubi were intensified after his and other opposition supporters attempted to obstruct last year's Day of Quds rallies by invoking purely nationalistic slogans.

He also created controversy and public rage by airing rumors of jail-rape by unidentified individuals that had claimed to have been detained during the post-election riots."

1620 GMT: How Big Was That Rally? Fars News' lead story is that the Associated Press has reported on Iran's anti-Israel protests today, with "millions" on the streets. Earlier today, Iranian media were concerned that outlets of the "West" were minimising the crowd.

So it would seem the regime is getting very concerned that the world know that today proves it has a lot of support from its people. I'm looking for the proof: so far I can't track down the Associated Press report.

1615 GMT: Karroubi Watch. Mehdi Karroubi's Saham News, down for a few hours this afternoon (see 1445 GMT), is back on-line.

1600 GMT: How Big was the Regime Rally? Iranian Students News Agency posts a set of photographs of today's march in Tehran for Qods Day. This is the largest crowd shot in the set:



1555 GMT: Attacking the Clerics. Aftab News offers a pro-Government version of the clash today in which a pro-regime crowd --- reported by Rah-e-Sabz as "200 to 300 Basij" (see 1400 GMT) --- entered and shut down the Qoba Mosque in Shiraz, the base of Government critic Ayatollah Dastgheib.

The Facebook site supporting Mir Hossein Mousavi posts photos of those injured in the attack.

1445 GMT: Attacks on Karroubi. Mehdi Karroubi's website Saham News (see 1420 GMT) has been taken down by an apparent attack diverting readers to a "dummy" site on financial matters.

1435 GMT: Today's Alice-in-Wonderland Statement. Tabnak accuses foreign media --- who operate, if they can report at all, under strict Government oversight --- of "censoring" reports on the turnout for the Qods Day rally. Mehr levels a similar charge at CNN.

Am I sensing regime worry that the rally may not have been the grand success it wanted? Fars attacks the BBC and al-Arabiya for minimising the turnout.

1430 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Aftab News reports that former President Hashemi Rafsanjani joined today's march for Qods Day.

1425 GMT: Sanctions Watch. Japan has imposed new sanctions on Iran over Tehran's nuclear programme, banning transactions with some Iranian banks and targeting energy-related investments.

Japan approved sanctions against Iran last month, but US officials have been pressing Tokyo to adopt tougher measures.

Despite the pressure, Japan --- a major importer of Iranian crude oil --- but did not impose any restrictions on its oil imports.

1420 GMT: Karroubi Watch. Mehdi Karroubi's Saham News, a primary source of information about the siege of the Karroubi house, has been off-line for the past hour, first with a blank screen and now with a "403 Forbidden" error.

1405 GMT: Perspective. An EA source from Iran offers the following, "The deaths are going on all the time; recently two people from my town were killed by the regime. The families are forced to say they died of natural causes, but everyone knows that the regime killed them. And that is going on in every city, town, and village of the country. People are just disappearing. And those who are being killed are the people no one hears of, and those who do have a voice are being silenced.'

1400 GMT: Shutting Down the Clerics --- Clash in Shiraz. Rah-e-Sabz provides more information on the closure of the Qoba Mosque in Shiraz, the base of Government critic Grand Ayatollah Dastgheib (see 1050 GMT), this morning. The website claims that 200-300 Basij entered the mosque and proceeded to attack the cleric’s students.

1355 GMT: Academic Corner. Iran’s Deputy Minister of Higher Education, Bagher Khorramshad, has cancelled his trip to the Netherlands after protests by the Dutch-Iranian community.

The visit, organized by Clingendael (the Netherlands Institute of International Relations) and the Iran's Embassy was scheduled for 17 September.

1340 GMT: The Karroubi Siege. It looks like this story may take over from the Government's Qods Day showpiece. The latest is that Grand Ayatollah Bayat Zanjani has called Mehdi Karroubi to express his support and praise his resilience, according to reliable sources. Bayat Zanjani denounced the attacks on the Karroubi house and hoped that the pro-regime crowd would cease their activities.

One of Imam Khomeini’s grandsons, Seyed Yasser Khomeini, also visited Mehdi Karroubi to express his condolences and denounce the assailants.

1215 GMT: The Karroubi Siege. The Assembly of Teachers and Researchers of Qom Seminary School has issued a statement strongly condemned the attacks by a pro-regime crowd on Mehdi Karroubi's home.

Karroubi's Etemade Melli party have also put out a statement of condemnation.

1210 GMT: More Tough Talk (see 1040 GMT). General Mohammad Reza Naqdi, the commander of the Basij military, has complained that "our hands are closed due to treaties" when it comes to actions of Zionists. Naqdi continues, "We are waiting for a foolish move by Israel to erase it."

1050 GMT: Controlling the Clerics. The Qoba Mosque, the base of Grand Ayatollah Dastgheib, is closed for prayers, even though it is a Friday.

Dastgheib, far from coincidentally, is a prominent critic of the Government.

1040 GMT: Today's Tough Talk. Let's hand over to the head of Iran's armed forces, General Hassan Firouzabadi: ""Our developed weapons can hit any part of the Zionist regime....We hope not to be forced to attack their nuclear facility [at Dimona]."

0950 GMT: Karroubi Watch. More information from Saham News on last night's violence by the pro-regime crowd surrounding Mehdi Karroubi's house: the website claims a husband and wife were beaten. The incident allegedly began when the woman, who had her headscarf removed, was spotted using a mobile phone.

Saham News also claims the couple were detained.

Mir Hossein Mousavi and his wife Zahra Rahnavard, in a phone call to Karroubi, offered their full support "and strongly condemned the hideous and foolish actions of a group of thugs pretending to be Muslims".
0920 GMT: Rah-e-Sabz reports that security forces have flooded 7 Tir and Enghelab Squares and lined roads leading to 7 Tir from the north. Several people have been detained, one allegedly for wearing a Green bandana.

The website also claims security forces with batons are boarding metro cars in Tehran to seek out any Greens. Forces at checkpoints in Tehran and are stopping and searching people.

Mehdi Karroubi's son Hossein says his family home is still surrounded, preventing his father from getting to the Qods Day rally.

0833 GMT: Ahmadinejad's speech ends. Nothing new in a statement which was meant to whip up crowd sentiment against Israel, and certainly no references to the internal situation (apart from the President's repeated, unintended ironies on allowing the people to choose and the media to speak and on the flaws of the West in supporting "sham elections").

The far more important issue, I suppose, will be the reaction that the President's speech gets from others in the Iranian establishment as well as from the population.
0825 GMT: I'm sorry, but I can't keep a straight face when Ahmadinejad enjoins the "West" to "listen to your people" and "let the media speak": "Do not silence them. Let them raise their voice."

0820 GMT: Ahmadinejad, addressing "the US and the West", challenges them --- as the authors of the United Nations Human Rights Charter --- to support a referendum in Palestine and to hold referenda amongst their peoples over Palestine policy.

0815 GMT: Ahmadinejad now appealing to Arab leaders to "let your people be free" to "bring down the Zionist regime". He says, "Instead of relying on American and the West, you should rely on God."

0810 GMT: Ahmadinejad says, "Israel-Palestine direct talks have already failed."

0808 GMT: Ahmadinejad now criticising sham elections in Iraq. (No, he showed no sense of irony or self-reflection with that statement.)

0803 GMT: Now Ahmadinejad gets confident saying that, with the rise of Qods Day, the Zionists are under pressure and "are on the verge of collapse".
0800 GMT: More of the same from Ahmadinejad, as crowd breaks in with "Death to Israel".

0755 GMT: Karroubi Watch. Saham News reports that more than 20 motorcyclists have surrounded Mehdi Karroubi's residential complex.

0748 GMT: More from Ahmadinejad on "moral corruption" and "cultural devastation" of the "Zionist regime": "No culture is immune".

Ahmadinejad says the Zionists have "manipulated history of World War II" with the symbols of the Holocaust", which he calls a "likely crime". He adds that politicians in Europe or North America are "selected by the Zionists".

0740 GMT: President Ahmadinejad is now speaking at Tehran Friday Prayers, commenting on the repression of the Palestinian people and the "occupation" of the area over the past 60 years.

0710 GMT: Press TV is now featuring crowd shots from Kerman in central Iran and Oroumiyeh in northwestern Iran as well as Tehran.

No significant action, so Press TV is playing up the presence of Lauren Booth (the half-sister of Cherie Blair, wife of former British Prime Minister Tony Blair) as their correspondent in the centre of Tehran. She is enthusiastic, opening, "Well, I've never seen so many people take to the streets of a capital city in my life. Here we are...on Al-Qods Day 2010 with a million people expected....The message coming from Tehran today, not just to Palestine but to the world, is one of steadfastness, a message of solidarity."

0645 GMT: MediaWatch. No real movement yet, so we settle for the unintended irony of analyst Seyed Mohammad Marandi in Press TV's studio: "After the Revolution, people power is more important."

The host and Marandi continue to talk about "people power, a factor, a big factor". At no point do they reflect, as they speak in post-election Iran, that the term might hold significance in a context different from that of Palestine.

0635 GMT: The Karroubi story continues to hold centre stage as we wait for the Qods Day rallies for the regime. We have posted the video and English summary of the cleric's TV interviews after the violence on the fifth night of the siege of his house by a pro-regime crowd.

0535 GMT: Today is Qods (Palestine) Day in Iran. Established by Ayatollah Khomeini on the last Friday of the holy month of Ramadan, the occasion traditionally shows solidarity with the Palestinian people as they seek independence. Last year, however, the day took on a different tone, as those protesting the 2009 Presidential election and the Government's actions demonstrated on the streets.

A year later, after the regime's suppression of dissent and amidst the continuing turmoil within the system, there is unlikely to be a significant show of opposition. Instead, the question is: can the regime and Government offer an enthusiastic demonstration of support for their legitimacy? The showpiece will be Friday Prayers in Tehran, where President Ahmadinejad will take the podium before Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami offers the Friday Prayer speech.

Already, however, the Government's effort has been complicated, if not overshadowed, by the events of Thursday night outside the residence of Mehdi Karroubi. The fifth night of the siege by a pro-regime crowd escalated into violence that caused damage and injures, as assailants tried to get into the Karroubi house.

An EA correspondent gets to the heart of the issue and thus the possible difficulties for the regime, even as it tries to parade its authority today:

Either Ayatollah Khamenei knews and approved the attack, or he is unable to stop it. Ahmadinejad on the other hand probably knev and secretly approves.This whole sordid affair casts a sorry light over the government's insecurity and its reliance on intimidation and threats in order to cow the opposition into silence.

We have continuing coverage of the Karroubi siege in a separate entry.