The Latest from Iran (8 September): Sakineh Execution Suspended?

2055 GMT: Karroubi Watch. Mehdi Karroubi has posted an open letter to the Iranian nation, declaring, "Our leaders have no control over their disturbed nerves and minds."

2035 GMT: The Battle Within. Interesting to see that another website has picked up on MP Ali Motahari's declaration, which we reported earlier (see 1544 GMT), that the Parliament must prevent an emergence of “dictatorship” in the Ahmadinejad Government and that, if it failed to do so, it had betrayed the nation.

Even more interesting to note the the website is the English-language version of Mehr, which is not known as a prominent critic of the President and his allies.

NEW Iran Feature: Re-visiting the 2009 Election (Keshavarz)
NEW Iran Snap Analysis: Who is Running Foreign Policy?
Iran Exclusive: Rafsanjani Declares “I Won’t Bear This Situation”
Iran Exclusive: FM Mottaki Attempted to Resign over Ahmadinejad Foreign Policy
The Latest from Iran (7 September): The Real Stories

2025 GMT: US "Iran is a Dictatorship" Alert. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, responding to a question after her speech today at the Council on Foreign Relations, declared, "I don''t think there''s any doubt that Iran is morphing into a military dictatorship with a sort of religious ideological veneer. It is becoming the province of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and in concert with some of the clerical and political leadership."

While those sentences are seizing headlines tonight, they are far from new. Clinton used similar language in Qatar in February, as the US tried to forge an alliance of Arab countries against Tehran. At that time, the dictatorship line appeared to be another arrow in Washington's quiver of measures to bring pressure on Iran over the nuclear issue and regional contests.

Initially, it might not be clear if the declaration on this occasion was anything more than a rhetorical flourish. In her speech --- a grand tour of why US leadership is necessary around the world --- the Secretary of State devoted some time to Iran's nuclear programme but not a single word to the internal political and legal situation. She focused on the theme of Iran as the international enemy to be repelled with the assertion, "Early returns from implementation of the sanctions are that they''re feeling the economic effects. We would hope that that would lead them to reconsider their positions, not only with respect to nuclear weapons but, frankly, the export of terrorism."

Yet these paragraphs, immediatedly following the "military dictatorship", point to a somewhat different US strategy, "I don't think that's what the Iranian Revolution for a republic of Iran, an Islamic republic of Iran, was ever meant to become. So I know there is a great deal of ferment and activities inside that we do try to support.

"At the same time, we don't want to either endanger or undermine those very same people so that it becomes, you know, once again, the U.S. doing something instead of the U.S. being supportive of what indigenous efforts are taking place."

So is there a US strategy not only to acknowledge the justice and rights issues but to bolster the activists pursuing them? It is here the vision becomes muddled because of an apparent uncertainty as to where Iranian events may head. Clinton could only offer a vague notion, "I think that there is a very sad confluence of events occurring inside Iran that I think eventually --- but I can''t put a time frame on it -- the Iranian people themselves will respond to."

1710 GMT: Power (Price) Surge. Deputy Minister of Energy Mohammad Behzad, commenting on the rise in electricity prices (reportedly five times for some Tehran residents), says subsidies have been cut for people who use too much energy.

Behzad offered the consolation that consumers can pay bills by installments.

1705 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Two Haft Tapeh Sugar Cane factory workers, Alireza Saeedi and Behrouz Mollazadeh, have each received one-year jail sentences.

The two labor activists were arrested last December and released on $70,000 bail. Their "crime" was satirical clips of the Supreme Leader on their cell phones.

1555 GMT: The Rahnavard Challenge. More on the letter from Zahra Rahnavard to the head of judiciary, Sadegh Larijani (see 1210 GMT), "Don't Erase the Freedom and Rights of Citizens".

We are all responsible for the people's future....What misery has come to our country, in which opposition people and families' houses get raided, in which people get arrested and kept as hostages, while their relatives get thretened? Which of these actions is Islamic or human?

Rahnavard continues:

How do you expect society to remain sane, when thugs attack women and youngsters...?
What has happened? Is this a war between Iran and Saddam or against helpless families, detained by thugs, which were certainly armed and equipped by a part of the rulers?

Before God enters and burns all together, I expect from you as the head of judges to restore justice to the people. I expect you to appear at least once in public and boldly condemn all officials and sentence them.

1544 GMT: Parliament v. President. Leading MP Ali Motahari is speaking up again, claiming that silence on government deviance paves the way for dictatorship. Motahari criticised the Majlis for bowing to government threats on subsidy cuts, hijab and chastity issues, the 5th Budget Plan, and foreign policy.

Motahari's take-away line: Ahmadinejad has to decide if he wants velayat-e-faqih (clerical authority) or velayat-e-Mashai (the authority of Presidential Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai).

Former Presidential candidate Nategh Nouri has said that the President's refusal to implement laws is dictatorship. Reformist MP Ali Akbar Oulia adds that Ahmadinejad's withdrawal of the 5th Budget Plan, because of Parliamentary amendments, "ridicules everyone". (The Majlis Research Center concludes that, during 2008-2009, the Government has applied only six of 112 Majlis laws in due time; 58 were implemented late and 48 not at all.)

MP Javad Jahangirzadeh claims that 45 MPs have already signed for the impeachment of energy minister Majid Namjoo and that many others support the move.

1540 GMT: Claim of Day. The Supreme Leader's representative to the Revolutionary Guard has said that the 12th "hidden" Imam will appear when the people support Ayatollah Khamenei.

1530 GMT: The Post-Election Dead. Peyke Iran has posted a list of 150 people whom it says have been killed in the conflict since the June 2009 election.

1525 GMT: Sanctions Watch. Lebanon's Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh has said that Lebanese banks will have to comply with stricter sanctions by the UN, the US, and the European Union on Iran: “It is up to the Lebanese banks to act in accordance with their interests and be sure, if they have to make an operation, that it’s an operation that can’t be contested internationally.”

Salameh said that the latest UN resolution “is very clear and we will respect it and make sure it is respected".

1520 GMT: Execution (Sakineh) Watch. The European Parliament has condemned the death sentence on Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani by 658-1, with 22 abstentions.

1320 GMT: Execution (Sakineh) Watch. An EA correspondent adds more reason for caution:

Mehmanparast had said this [that the sentence for stoning was suspended during the summer] yesterday during his usual press briefing together with the ongoing case for murder, but for some reason world media decided to ignore it yesterday and pick up the identical Press TV quote today.

The alarming thing in all this is that Mehmanparast is the Foreign Ministry spokesman and is making statements on a case which has absolutely nothing to do with his ministry. The Justice ministry and the judicial authority, both of which have people capable of reading out statements, have kept near-absolute silence on the matter.

If Sakineh is indeed hanged, Mehmanparast can wash his hands off it by saying that his ministry does not hang people and the judicial authorities can say that we have not given any assurances all along.

1310 GMT: Neither the Islamic Republic News Agency nor Fars News are carrying the Mehmanparast statement about the sentencing of Sakineh Mohammad Ashtiani.

1250 GMT: Execution (Ashtiani) Watch. The Western media is buzzing over "a suspension of the death sentence" of Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani, convicted of adultery and later complicity in the murder of her husband.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast has said, "The sentencing of Ms. Ashtiani for adultery has been stopped and [her case] is being reviewed again, and her sentencing for complicity in murder is in process."

That somewhat confusing statement does appears to be a limited change in the Iranian position: earlier this summer, Tehran suspended the sentence of execution by stoning, the original penalty imposed on Ashtiani, but left open execution by a means such as hanging. (Most of the Western media have overlooked or misunderstood this, as they report that it is Mehmanparast's statement today that suspends stoning.)

However, I am being cautious. Mehmanparast may be saying that the execution on the adultery charge is only being held up while the "complicity in murder" moves to the conclusion of sentencing, which of course could be the death penalty.

Yesterday Mehmanparast warned European countries such as France and Italy not to interfere in the country and he repeated that line today: "Defending a person on trial for murder should not be turned into a human rights matter." He repeated that, if this was such a matter, European countries could free all incarcerated murderers in the name of human rights.

Mehmanparast then attempted to justify the death punishment for adultery: "even "Western countries, which are not sensitive about family values, take offence at betrayal".

1240 GMT: Lawyer Watch. A further note on yesterday's court appearance of journalist and activist Heshmatollah Tabarzadi (see 0720 GMT): he was represented by Mohammad Ali Dadkhah, as his lawyer Nasrine Sotoudeh was detained on Saturday.

1210 GMT: Justice. In the wake of the siege of Mehdi Karroubi's house, Zahra Rahnavard has written the head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, to demand justice for the Iranian people.

Wondering if intimidations, detentions, and abuses were "Islamic" and "human", Rahnavard asked Larijani how he expects society to remain "healthy" when homes and student dormitories are attacked.

1030 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Mahmoud Bagheri, a member of the Iranian Teachers Trade Union, has been released after two months detention.

0910 GMT: Sanctions Watch. South Korea has announced new sanctions, including review of most financial transactions, against Iran. An expanded blacklist will affect more than 100 Iranian firms and individuals, inspections of suspicious cargo will be expanded, and investments in Iran's energy sector will be limited.

Seoul also said Iran's Bank Mellat faces "a heavy penalty" for moving hundreds of millions of dollars in transactions for Iranian nuclear, missile and defense agencies.

0905 GMT: Can't Be Clearer Than This. Back to our main story today....

Press TV headlines on the letter signed by 122 MPs over the President's appointment of special envoys for foreign policy, "Iran Lawmakers Criticize Ahmadinejad".

0858 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch (Election Fraud Edition). Detained reformist politician Mostafa Tajzadeh has re-asserted, in a visit with his wife, his conviction that the 2009 Presidential election was a "fraud", involving officials such as Guardian Council head Ayatollah Jannati and the Revolutionary Guard. He asked why the Iranian judiciary has not addressed the complaint that he and six other prominent detainees have filed over alleged manipulation of the vote.

Tajzadeh also said that officials have yet to answer his question, "On what charge am I detained?"

The politician's defiance comes after sustained attempts by the regime --- through intimidation, threats, and propaganda --- for a Tajzadeh "confession" that the reformists knew they had lost the Presidential ballot.

0855 GMT: We have posted an analysis by Fatemeh Keshavarz, "Revisiting the 2009 Election".

0750 GMT: Sanctions Watch. The US Treasury has added Iranian-owned, German-based European-Iranian Trade Bank AG to its sanctions blacklist, claiming the bank has provided a financial lifeline to Iranian companies involved in weapons proliferation.

The Hamburg-based bank, known as EIH Bank, has been banned from the US financial system. Tehran has reportedly increased its reliance on EIH, amidst sanctions, to conduct business on behalf of blacklisted companies.

0720 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Kurdish writer, poet, and translator Aziz Naseri has reportedly been arrested.Another session in the trial of journalist and activist Heshmatollah Tabarzadi was held yesterday. Tabarzadi reportedly used the appearance to talk about the conditions in Rajai Shahr Prison (see 0705 GMT).

0715 GMT: Gasoline Magic. For the sake of balance, given the apparent reference by the Supreme Leader to Iran's "poor economic performance" (see 0655 GMT), we must issue an All-is-Well Alert:

Iran’s oil minister, Massoud Mirkazemi, announced that Iran has now become self-sufficient in its petrol production and is no longer dependent on foreign imports in this regard.

Iranian media report that Massoud Mirkazemi told reporters at a press conference today that Iran is now producing 66 million litres of petrol per day.

He said that Iran was formerly producing 44 million litres a day and in order to supply the domestic demand 20 million litres were imported from abroad....

Mirkazemi said: "Since 20 days ago we started increasing production in the production units and finally managed to bring our daily production up to 66.5 million litres per day in the past week."

0705 GMT: Torture Watch. HRANA is claiming that the death of prisoner Mohsen Beikvand in Rajai Shahr Prison on 31 August was a killing organised by officials: "Prisoners confined in Rajai Shahr prison believe prison authorities directly issued an order [to other prisoners] to murder Beikvand."

In May, HRANA released a video of alleged abuse of Beikvand, with the breaking of both legs and burns on his body. He was reportedly moved to solitary confinement days later.

Earlier this week, EA featured a report by Loes Bijnen on the "gruesome" conditions in Rajai Shahr.

0655 GMT: We begin this morning with a snap analysis, "Who Is Running Iran's Foreign Policy?"

Meanwhile, as we note the latest speech of the Supreme Leader, proclaiming that Iran will repel international sanctions, this summary is striking:

[The Leader] reiterated that the enemies seek to frustrate the Iranian people by exerting economic pressure on the country with the intent of turning the nation against the government by blaming it for poor economic performance.

Ayatollah Khamenei said their goal is to cut ties between the government and nation.

However, they have not known the Iranian nation and are mistaken in their calculations.

"Poor economic performance"? Is that an implicit admission of Iran's difficulties --- identified in a scathing statement by the head of the Supreme Audit Court this week --- with manufacturing, imports, unemployment, privatisation, and even its energy sector?

The Latest from Iran (7 September): The Real Stories

2140 GMT: Is It Really OK to Criticise the President Now? We noted last evening that the chairman of the Supreme Audit Court, Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli, had "taken apart the Ahmadinejad Government over its development plans, privatisation, imports, and subsidy reform".

Iran's Press TV either A) forgot to read EA or B) thought long and hard about whether it would be wise and appropriate to publicise Fazli's criticism. Finally, this afternoon it decided it was OK to let Ahmadinejad have it: "The Iranian government's plans to scrap state subsidies should not lead to 'political disputes' in the country, says the head of Iran's Supreme Audit Court."

Press also noted Fazli's comments on the suspect nature of the Government's privatisation but left out the chairman's scathing remarks on cheap imports pushing out Iranian goods and costing Iranian jobs.

NEW Iran Exclusive: Rafsanjani Declares “I Won’t Bear This Situation”
NEW Iran Exclusive: FM Mottaki Attempted to Resign over Ahmadinejad Foreign Policy
Iran Witness: Political Prisoner Arjang Davoudi From Evin on Human Rights (2008)
Iran Feature: Inside Rajai Shahr Prison (Bijnen)
The Latest from Iran (6 September): Stresses on Authority

2120 GMT: Ahmadinejad's Foreign Policy Problem. You know it's been a bad day for the President when even the Foreign Ministry spokesman is slapping him around.

At his press briefing today, Ramin Mehmanparast was asked if foreign policy had been hindered by the President's appointment of special representatives for international affairs.

Mehmanparast replied, "We believe the Foreign Ministry should not be undermined....The Foreign Ministry is the only body that makes final decision and implement foreign policy."

1540 GMT: School Days. "Free teachers", with between four and eight years of experience, from 5 provinces have protested in front of Parliament over discrimination in professional examinations and lack of jobs.

1535 GMT: Economy Watch. Khabar Online reports that about 800,000 jobs have been lost in agriculture since 2005.

1530 GMT: Sedition Alerts. The head of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, Mohammad Ali Jafari, says fitna (sedition) is much more dangerous than the 1980s war with Iraq. Commander Ali Fazli has asserted that tens of thousands were arrested during the past year's fitna. Of these, 5000 have "repented".

1525 GMT: A New Political Contender? The supporters of the new "Front for Justice and Welfare", linked to Ahmadinejad's Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, met yesterday. They defended the and his Government and sharply attacked the hardline newspaper Keyhan, which has been critical of Rahim-Mashai.

1510 GMT: Parliament v. President. Challenges to Ahmadinejad on a number of fronts....

122 of the 290 MPs in the Majlis have issued a warning to the President about "parallel actions" in foreign policy, reminding him to follow the command of the Supreme Leader.

The Article 90 Commission has threatened to send its file on the National Iranian Oil Company, whose statutes since 2007 are supposedly missing, to the judiciary.

On Wednesday the Parliament will officially present letters of impeachment of Minister of Energy Majid Namjoo and Minister of Agriculture minister Sadegh Khalilian.

Reformist MPs have demanded the pursuit and punishment of the perpetrators, and those who led them, of last week's attacks on the home of Mehdi Karroubi and Qoba Mosque in Shiraz.

1500 GMT: The Battle Within. Mohammad Nabi-Habibi, the Secretary-General of the Motalefeh party, has issued a stinging criticism of the President in Khabar Online.

Nabi Habibi rebuked Ahmadnejad for his "parallel actions" in foreign policy and said he should stop them immediately to please the Supreme Leader. While noting the "good performance" of the Ahmadinejad Governments, he added that they should also accept criticism, end quarrels, and create a better life for the people by establishing justice. He urged concentration on the creation of jobs and economic growth.

Nabi Habibi called for a Government commission with Parliament and the Expediency Council to resolve problems.

1440 GMT: Labour Front. Textile workers in Amol in northern Iran have rallied in front of the governor's office.

1435 GMT: Execution (Sakineh) Watch. The Parliament's Human Rights Commission has condemned the intervention of the French and Italian Governments in the case of Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani, condemned to death for adultery.

1430 GMT: Putting Away the Rumour of the Day. The Majlis has denied the story, which we noticed this morning, that Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani suffered a heart attack last week.

1315 GMT: MediaWatch. A quick answer to our enquiry earlier today (see 0650 GMT) about whether Thomas Erdbrink of The Washington Post, one of the few front-line "Western" correspondents in Tehran, would be returning to Iran after a break in The Netherlands.

Turns out Erdbrink's story on the Iranian opposition in Delft, published today, was developed last month, and he is already back in post in the Iranian capital.

1250 GMT: Sanctions Watch. On Monday, the Central Bank of the United Arab Emirates froze four Iranian bank accounts, in accordance with the recent sanctions on 41 firms and individuals adopted by the United Nations Security Council.

A source at the CBE said the other 37 accounts on the UN list were outside the country and the amounts frozen in the UAE were "very limited".

1245 GMT: Power Squeeze. Peyke Iran reports that electricity bills for some people in Tehran have risen five times. Khabar Online is also carrying the story.

1120 GMT: Transport News. Claims are circulating that, with a shortage of gasoline in Tehran, private bus drivers are waiting hours at stations.

1025 GMT: Execution (Sakineh) Watch. For the second time in two weeks, the Iranian Foreign Ministry has warned other countries not to interfere in Iran's legal system over Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani, sentenced to death for adultery.

"Unfortunately, (they are) defending a person who is being tried for murder and adultery, which are two major crimes of this lady and should not become a human rights issue," Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast. "If releasing all those who have committed murder is to be perceived as a human rights issue, then all European countries should release all the murderers in their countries."

Not sure that the latest Iranian protest will check the pressure, however: the Parliament of the European Union will pass a resolution on Wednesday in support of Ashtiani. On Monday, the introduction of the resolution brought more than 30 minutes of denunciation of Tehran:



1020 GMT: The Foreign Policy Battle. Key MP Ahmad Tavakoli has issued a harsh warning to President Ahmadinejad over his naming and retention of special envoys for foreign policy, amidst the growing dispute with the Foreign Ministry. Tavakoli said that ignoring the commands of Ayatollah Khamenei to cease "parallel actions" would have "grave consequences".

1015 GMT: Stopping the Lawyers. Reporters Without Borders has condemned the detention of defense attorney Nasrin Sotoudeh, whose office was raided on 28 August and who was summoned to the prosecutor's office inside Evin Prison on Sunday over charges of anti-government propaganda and conspiring against the regime

Reporters Without Borders said. “Detained journalists and other political prisoners are denied their most basic rights. Lawyers cannot visit their detained clients or see their case files. Now the repression is being stepped up a notch. By arresting lawyers, the regime is trying to gag the last dissenting voices. Lawyers’ organisations throughout the world must demand this courageous lawyer’s immediate release.”

0755 GMT: Nothing to See Here, Move Along (Nuclear Edition). And now the other side of the headline hype (see 0525 GMT). Press TV quotes Iran's ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Ali Asghar Soltanieh, on the IAEA's latest statement: "After seven years of constant inspections, the report once again confirms the non-diversion of Iran's nuclear activities towards military and banned objectives

Ali Abkar Salehi, the head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, chimes in, "Like the previous reports, the new report reiterates the non-diversion of declared nuclear material ….Therefore, we believe that the other issues mentioned in the report are minor."

It is useful to note Salehi's response to the most challenging remarks in the IAEA reports, criticising Iran's denial of inspections of its heavy water plant: "The IAEA should tell us that by which clause of the mutual agreement can it inspect the heavy water facilities. We have not found such a clause…if they prove it, I will immediately allow inspectors to visit [the plant]."

0700 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. We have posted an exclusive, based on sources in Iran, "Rafsanjani Declares, 'I Won't Bear This Situation'".

0650 GMT: Opposition Abroad. Here's a story I suspect some EA readers already knew, brought out by Thomas Erdbrink of The Washington Post:

A dreamy university town in the Netherlands known as the birthplace of 17th-century painter Johannes Vermeer has become a major center for Iranian activists abroad.

Over 1,000 Iranian students, the majority fresh arrivals from Iran's best universities, are studying courses such as applied physics and aerospace engineering at the Delft University of Technology, and meeting during evenings in cafes that line the city's canals.

The university hosts one of the largest communities of visiting Iranian scholars in Europe, and many are involved with the Iranian opposition movement.

Now a question: Erdbrink, one of the few front-line "Western" correspondents who remained in Iran during the post-election conflict, by-lines the story from Delft. Is the Dutch national now outside Iran and, if so, will he be able to get back in?
0535 GMT: We're going to leave the nuclear chatter to others, unless there is a significant development. We've got more important matters to consider....

Our exclusive on the tension between the President and the Foreign Ministry, including Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki's attempted resignation, was posted last night. This morning, we'll be putting up an equally important story involving former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, and tomorrow or Thursday we should have an analysis --- based on new information from inside Iran --- of the battle within the regime.

0525 GMT: As we noted at the end of last night, there will be a lot of "Western"media brushfires to put out today,  with the coverage of the International Atomic Energy Agency's latest report on the Iranian nuclear programme. Even though there is almost nothing new of substance in the IAEA summary, most newspapers will be looking for --- actually, they have already seized upon --- a morsel of information to turn into a dramatic statement of conflict and threat.

So far, however, the Obama Administration has put out a relatively muted statement of "disappointment" in Iran over its failure to co-operate fully with the IAEA inspectors. That indicates the US Government is putting more emphasis on the possible resumption of talks with Tehran via the 5+1 Powers rather on a public conflict with Iran.

There is the slighter possibility that another rogue story may be whipped up into a cause for showdown. Reza Aslan, who normally is a good reporter and analyst of Iran affairs, is pushing the speculative and over-hyped claims of the agency STRATFOR that Iran "may have orchestrated last week's brutal attacks by Hamas militants against Israeli settlers in the West Bank in an attempt to derail the Middle East peace talks".