Iran Exclusive: The Escalating Battle With Ahmadinejad

Last month two leaders of the Motalefeh (Islamic Coalition) Party, Habibollah Asgarowladi and Mohammad Nabi Habibi, requested a meeting with President Ahmadinejad. The discussion soon went beyond polite regards: Asgrowladi and Nabi Habibi told Ahmadinejad that he was "the biggest cause" of the improved position of the Green Movement in Iranian society.

The leaders of Motalefeh --- which has been a conservative mainstay of the Islamic Republic since its formation --- went further. They asked Ahmadinejad, "Who was the first person to chant, 'Marg bar Velayat-e-Faqih' (Death to Clerical Supremacy)?"

The President said nothing. Asgarowladi and Nabi Habibi continued, "You." In Ahmadinejad's televised debate with Mir Hossein Mousavi in the 2009 campaign, they explained, the President had equated the fate of the Revolution with his own. Ahmadinejad had put himself above everyone, even the Supreme Leader, and the Islamic Republic.

The meeting might seem extraordinary, but it is only one more incident in the battle against the President --- a battle that, at the moment, is not being led by the Greens or the reformists but by conservatives who are disillusioned with the state of Iran and with Ahmadinejad's personal approach to politics.

Since January, we have documented the escalation of that battle, to the point where key conservatives such as Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani and 2009 Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei have been involved in discussions of how to limit or even replace Ahmadinejad, on a daily basis. Defenders of the President, inside and outside Iran, will argue that this is only the normal rough-and-tumble of politics and that the Government as well as the regime is secure.

We're not so sure. From sources inside Iran, we get the picture of rising rather than falling difficulties.

Prices are now increasing, in some cases soaring, across a range of essentials. This week it was reported that electricity bills have risen for some consumers in Tehran by five times. Water has become more expensive. Lamb, which sells for about £10 per kilogramme ($7 per pound) in Britain, is £15 per kilogramme ($10.50 per pound) in Iran, with its lower level of wages.

Sources report that the cultural atmosphere is increasing turning against the "Islamic Revolution". The disappointment and anger is not translating into open political activity. Instead, amidst the repression and sense of crisis, there is a lethargy. Young people are looking to emigrate, and university students are seeking visas to study abroad.

This summer, the rift had opened not only between the President and Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani but also between Ahmadinejad and the head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani. In separate meetings with the Supreme Leader, Ali and Sadegh each said that the President was not popular and continued, "Please believe it. Don't support him."

Ayatollah Khamenei insisted, "No, this is not the situation." He told the Larijanis that there must be co-operation and said that he would hold a meeting at the start of Ramadan.

Ali Larijani replied, "My heart is not in it." Khamenei responded, "This is a religious duty."

As we noted in detail at the time, the Supreme Leader did chair that discussion with Ahmadinejad and the two Larijanis, following this with a public speech invoking "unity". A few days later, Ali Larijani and Ahmadinejad gave a public show of reconciliation.

Soon, however, that display broke down. Ahmadinejad's appointment of special envoys for international affairs led to dispute with Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki, who had previously kept quiet over the political tensions, and opened up the space for renewed criticism by the President's opponents in Parliament and the conservative media. The fragile economic situation offered the platform for a gradual renewal of criticism by Ahmadinejad's foes.

And so it was that, only a few weeks after his dramatic intervention and loud proclamation of "unity", the Supreme Leader was once more --- at the behest of his officials and politicians --- having to rebuke Ahmadinejad. This was not only over foreign policy but over the President's economic management, including privatisation and handling of imports.

Is that enough to hold the Government together for some more months? Another story....

Last month Mohsen Rezaei --- former commander of the Revolutionary Guard, Secretary of the Expediency Council, 2009 Presidential candidate --- met the Supreme Leader. Rezaei requested, "Please let us carry out the unity plan," by which he meant support of a combination of leading politicians and officials that would curb and possibly put aside Ahmadinejad.

The Supreme Leader asked, "Will this include [opposition figures Mir Hossein] Mousavi and [Mehdi] Karroubi?"

Rezaei paused for a very long moment and then said, "Maybe."

Khamenei was quicker in his response, "No."

So, as our sources summarise, "Iran is in a cul-de-sac." Most of the population is dispirited and apathetic about politics; they see no care for them from the Government, no benefit in the Republic, no use in pursuit of "reform".

Meanwhile, the establishment is increasingly fragmented. Ahmadinejad is in political difficulties, facing heavyweight challenges from the Parliament and possibly from Iran's judiciary, but he can still rely upon the security services and his allies still dominate the Ministry of Intelligence.

Perhaps most importantly, the Supreme Leader still has not pulled the trigger on his President. There have been times when it appeared Ayatollah Khamenei might do so. for example, last summer in the dispute over Ahmadinejad's power play for Iran's ministries and his insistence on keeping Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, now Chief of Staff, by his side. It appears, however, that Khamenei is still acceptingalbeit without satisfaction and with a great deal of concern --- "the devil he knows" rather than the devil he doesn't. He cannot accept a political coalition which --- without Ahmadinejad --- might have to reach out to reformists and the opposition to bring a semblance of stability.

I suspect Ahmadinejad and his allies not only know that but are playing upon that. For the Supreme Leader's rebukes of his President have not brought the downfall of the controversial Rahim-Mashai. They have not brought a retraction of the President's foreign policy move with his appointment of special envoys, including the same Rahim-Mashai. They have not even brought a shift in Ahmadinejad's economic approach.

This is turning into quite a contest. For at the end of the day --- assuming that the conservatives who dislike the President do not put the white flag --- both the President and the Supreme Leader cannot emerged unbloodied. Either Ahmadinejad must be publicly limited or the weakness of Khamenei's claim of a "velayat-e-faqih", as the Motalefeh leaders foretold in their meeting with the President), will have been exposed.

On to the next round....

Iran: Pro-Regime Media Asks, "Which is Worse: Stoning or Prostitution?"

We are still working on the tribute to our new favourite Iran website, www.barackobama.ir. Who is behind its latest news, incisive analysis, and essential question, "Is Obama the First Jewish President?"



In the meantime, we bring you today's top story from the site, "Why did Iranian Media call Carla Bruni a 'prostitute'?"

In view of the fact that committing adultery as well as being an accomplice in spouse’s murder is described as ‘pure love’ by Carla Bruni without paying any attention to religious beliefs of Iranians relying on her immoral mentality, she has to be ready for Iranian people’s judgment.

"According to the recent reports Carla Bruni- Nicolas Sarkozy’s wife who became accidentally the French ‘First Lady’ in a night party- supported Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani who was sentenced to death because of committing adultery and being an accomplice in her husband’s murder." Iranian Media reported.

"The French First Lady’s support of Sakineh Ashtiani along with the other vulgar film’s stars is due to their resemblance to Sakineh Ashtiani." Iranian Media, referring to the sexual scandals of Carla Bruni such as her illicit relationships before and after her marriage.

It is evident that Carala Bruni was just shocked of being called prostitute by Iranian Media. She’s not a prostitute in western culture even if she has the illicit relationships and she got bored with monogamy. That’s because a prostitute is who has sex just for money in western culture.

Carla Bruni has no rights to protest!

Carla Bruni described the "adultery" as "pure love" in support of Sakineh Ashtiani paying no attention to religious beliefs of Iranian people as well as their social rules. So she should be ready for every judgment having no rights to protest, when she interferes in Iran’s affairs.

In Iran, the prostitution means having any covert sexual relationship, even though the promiscuity is "freedom" in Bruni’s opinion.

As Iranian Media reported, they believe that bruni’s immoral mentality makes family basis unstable. These relations are also unacceptable in French public opinion and they think Carla Bruni had really bad effects on Sarkozy’s popularity as his wife.

Considering our ancient literature as well as the Iranian religious society, it was really difficult but inevitable to use the word of "prostitute" for informing the people publishing a part of this promiscuous woman’s immoral acts. Bruni’s support of an adulteress and an accomplice in a murder was so significant and ridiculous; that’s why Iranian Media had to publish such a report.

Which is worse? Stoning or promiscuity

Thanks to laws enacted by Islam for better life, the family structure is more solid in Iran and there aren’t such anomalies in our country. Stoning is one of these laws with human object even though it seems cruel. Stoning shows how important is family structure in Islam and Islam imposes heavy penalty for treachery which causes instability of family structure.

There are so difficult situations to condemn somebody to stoning in Islam, that’s why it is one of the rare punishments just for public immoral crimes which affect Muslim society. Islam even invites the criminal to Towbeh suggesting them not repeating the crime.

Contrary to the number of the spouses and children whose life is corrupted as a result of unstable family basis in western countries, a few numbers of people were condemned to stoning during the last years in Iran. Who knows how many people committed murder or even suicide because of mental complex in western families?

It is better that the western experts study the crime rate in western countries comparing it to the reasons of the decreasing crimes in Iran as well as fidelity of Iranian men and women to their families. That’s exactly what the Iranian Media suggest to the western countries.