UPDATED Iran Special: How Do You Analyse a Non-Event? (Lucas)

UPDATE 5 September: The Iranian media is still on the theme that the Western media has mis-reported the grand and glorious events of Qods Day (even though the same Iranian media is no longer asserting a figure for the number who attended the grand and glorious events). The Islamic Republic News Agency complains that the Western media used themes such as "the presence of security forces in the streets", "the attack on Mehdi Karroubi's home" and the "lack of grassroots people in the protests" to divert attention.



My favourite account, however, is on my new favourite website, www.barackobama.ir. Its report, "What Mainstream Media Didn't Say About Iran Quds Day Rallies", wanders about for a bit --- "International Quds Day was really unique this year...[as] it coincided with the Israel-Palestine peace conference" --- without mentioning incidential details like crowd numbers, significant gatherings, or statements.

Finally, it seizes on this explanation from a university student named Nasser: ""Ramadan is the month of fasting in which Muslims refrain from eating as well as drinking from dawn until sunset according to their religious training. Considering the temperature of 37 degrees Centigrade (99 degrees Fahrenheit) in the sunny weather of Tehran, it may be surprising when we see how decisive Iranians are for demonstrating in support of other Muslims."

I have to tell you that watching the events of Qods (Palestine) Day became a very disconcerting experience. That's not because of a rush of news --- as with other red-letter days in Iran after the 2009 Presidential election --- but because I couldn't make out any development of significance.

How do you analyse a non-event?

Almost no one expected a show of opposition yesterday. The regime's battering of the Green Movement, activist groups, reformist politicians, journalists, and other proven or potential dissidents --- reinforced by a heavy security presence in Tehran before and on Qods Day --- ensured there would not be a mass gathering.

Instead, the question was what the Government would produce. The setpieces were obvious: a Presidential speech before Tehran Friday Prayers and rallies in Iran's cities, trumpeted by all broadcasting and press outlets. Some of the script was already written: with 1500 special buses and free travel on the metro in the capital, a crowd was ensured. Denunciation of Israel and support for the Palestinian people would be the platform for the condemnation of foreign enemies.

But how much of a crowd? How spontaneous and enthusiastic for their leaders, as opposed to angered against the Zionists?

Early on, the build-up went to plan. Press TV added a nice touch, flying in Lauren Booth --- sister-in-law of former British Prime Minister Tony Blair --- to see events first-hand on the Tehran streets. She chattered enthusiastically about "the biggest protest" she had ever seen in any capital city, a line backed up by state media proclamations of a million Iranians who would be turning out.

Under the giant marquee at Tehran University for Friday Prayers, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad delivered his lines as a seasoned performer. The felony of the Palestinian occupation was detailed but converted to a promise of victory with the downfall of the Zionists. The perfidy of Israel's Western supporters was set out and knocked back with the assurance of Iran's superiority. The audience put in its chants at checkpoints throughout the speech.

And then....

Well, that became the tricky part for an observer. Clearly Ahmadinejad was not going to refer to Iran's internal situation --- for months, he has used the international as a shiny object to hold attention, given the political and economic tensions within his country. But with no Supreme Leader on hand --- Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami, who led Friday Prayers, was a non-person on the day; I struggled to find any reference to his words --- and with no other regime show-stopper planned, how could one judge any supposed public acclamation of the regime?

The most obvious marker was the size of the crowd for Qods Day marches. But, at least when I scanned Press TV, Lauren Booth had disappeared. There had been early-morning shots of rallies in Kerman in central Iran and Oroumiyeh in the northwest, but those were not repeated and there were no other cities added to the list. And in Tehran, all I had were generic overhead shots which appeared to be of 3 September 2010. There was no correspondent amongst the supposed masses, no first-hand account of the Great Rally.

Late in the day, photographs from the Iranian Student News Agency gave some ground-level confirmation of a march filling a Tehran avenue, but even these were swallowed up by a curious theme in some of the Iranian media. The story in Tabnak, Mehr, and Fars was no longer the proud declaration of millions who had turned out; instead, it was a bitter denunciation of foreign media for "censoring" reports which could have shown that millions had turned out. And then a further twist: Fars put out a happier article that the Associated Press of "the West" had reported the million-person figure.

That could have been my salvation for an analysis. The only problem is that I could not find any AP article on the rally, let alone one that was putting up seven figures for the crowd.

And this morning, returning to my search, even the mention of Qods Day has disappeared. Some of the Iranian media has shuffled to other possibilities to show the regime's legitimacy; some --- notably the conservative Khabar Online --- have returned to their pre-Friday stance of implied or even direct criticism of Ahmadinejad.

How do you analyse a non-event?

This past week, a new theme for backers of the Government -- supported by a speculative piece by Hooman Majd, who is now based in the US --- has been that the President is quite secure in his position. Iranian politics, the argument goes, will have its quarrels, but the Supreme Leader will oversee a stable system that moves securely towards the next Presidential elections in 2013. Nothing to see here, those of you who are pressing for "regime change", move along.

Maybe. Maybe a Government doesn't need an overwhelming show of support at a regime rally. Maybe it can make it through another week or month or year with the assurance that, while there are worries within the system over economic, political, and legal issues, no one wants to push the conflict to a dramatic showdown. Maybe legitimacy does not have to be through the eager endorsement of the people but through a resignation to events.

Maybe. But then again, Friday was not just an issue of a non-event. There was also an event which clearly did happen, a different kind of rally outside the residence of an opposition cleric named Mehdi Karroubi.

The Green Movement is allegedly dead. The reformist opposition is broken. The Supreme Leader has re-asserted his authority overseeing the Iranian system. The President is confident and secure with his backing of 25 million votes from 2009. Iran is united behind its leaders....

And yet for five nights in a row the pro-regime crowd gathered to box in a 73-year-old cleric, who allegedly receiving only several hundred thousand votes in that same 2009 election, and his family. As the nights passed, they shouted slogans, declaring that they were denouncing Mehdi Karroubi as fervent loyalists to Ayatollah Khamenei. They daubed graffiti, damaged walls and the entrance to the apartment complex.

Then on Thursday night they threw Molotov cocktails. They shot the streetlights. They damaged the water pipes, cut off the electricity and, at least temporarily, the phone lines. They tried to enter Karroubi's apartment. All the time, as they had for the four previous nights, security forces stood by until Special Guards arrived a few hours later.

(One might also note the less-reported incident in Shiraz yesterday, when another pro-regime crowd --- described as 200 to 300 Basij militia by Rah-e-Sabz --- allegedly entered and shut down the Qoba Mosque of Grand Ayatollah Dastgheib, a critic of the Government. Worshipers were said to have been beaten.)

These are the forces of a regime that no longer fears a challenge?

There may be those who will write off the five-day siege as the work of rogue elements --- nothing to do with the leadership. Let's assume that is true. Then where is the Supreme Leader's supposed authority over his country and his people?

An EA correspondent nailed the conundrum: either Ayatollah Khamenei knew about these attacks, allowing them to escalate, or he did not have the power to halt the momentum. And President Ahmadinejad? You probably can stick with "knew about these attacks".

Have another look at our piece, via Pedestrian, on the "Green Sedition Festival" that the regime hosted this week. Here are the posters, not only public but given a prominent gallery, that tie Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi to a devious Barack Obama, the evil Zionists, the "terrorist" Mujahedin-e-Khalq. This is not just a political response to an opposition. This is a declaration of war against the enemies, the enemies who have supposedly already been vanquished.

Because the opposition is not vanquished. They are not mounting a frontal attack --- they can't match the heavy forces that the Government can mobilise with the Revolutionary Guard, the security services, the Ministry of Intelligence, the judiciary. Instead, they are sniping from the flanks. Prominent reformists are thrown back into prison but return to the charge of "election fraud" with a complaint, supposed by a leaked audio, of military interference in the 2009 election. Political parties which supposedly have been banned still put out statements; Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mohammad Khatami continue to disseminate the message, "We are the media." Activists assume a lower profile but find ways to keep the issues of rights alive. Mehdi Karroubi will not shut up about injustices and abuses, even when his house is surrounded and his family is threatened for five days.

I'm not sure I would go as far as Khodnevis, which proclaimed, "This Qods Day goes to Karroubi." I don't think this Qods Day went to anyone as a prize --- not to the Supreme Leader, not to Ahmadinejad, not to the Revolutionary Guard. It just came and went, all the Iranian media's cheerleading efforts trailing away into a whimper of, "Why did no one notice?"

There was much condemnation of Zionists, but no sign of legitimacy. There was a full sketch of the "West", but the picture of "Iran" was still blurred.

There were lots of security forces, but this is not a secure regime.

The Latest from Iran (5 September): Cracking Down after the Disappointment

1905 GMT: The Story to Watch on Monday. Another rift may be opening up between the President and Parliament....

Ahmadinejad's representatives, who have asked for the withdrawal of the 5th Budget Plan because they do not like the amendments of the Majlis, did not appear in the Coordination Commission on Saturday. MP Mohammad Hassan Abutorabi-Fard was sent to the President's office --- Ahmadinejad is on a tour of Tehran Province --- to convince it to change its line.

So far there has been no movement, and the Coordination Commission has stopped its work.

Peyke Iran notes that, six months after the start of the Iranian year, the 5th Plan has not been implemented.

1900 GMT: The Regime Line. The fervently pro-Government Raja News is repeating the claim of the Revolutionary Guard's Javan that 100 reformists met to plot against Mehdi Karroubi.

1845 GMT: Execution (Sakineh) Watch. Yesterday we reported the claim of Sajad Ghaderzadeh, the son of Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani, that his mother had been sentenced to 99 lashes because a photograph of a woman without headscarf --- mistakenly identified as Ashtiani --- appeared in The Times of London. The punishment is added to the death sentence that Ashtiani already faces for adultery.

An unusual development today, as Ashtiani's lawyer, Mohammad Mostafaei, is claiming that Ghaderzadeh was given false information. Mostafaei, who has fled Iran and is now in Norway, says that the story of 99 lashes is untrue.

Ghaderzadeh has appealed to Mostafaei not to make any more comments either on his mother's case or on his father's death.

NEW Iran Feature: An Open Letter to Detained Activist Shiva Nazar Ahari (Vahidmanesh)
NEW Iran Breaking: Uncertainty if Lawyer Nasrine Sotoudeh Arrested
Iran Special: How Do You Analyse a Non-Event? (Lucas)
Iran Overview: “A Small Rally to Make More Enemies” (Shahryar)
Iran Propaganda Special: The Green Sedition Festival
UPDATED Iran Video: The Claimed Attack on Karroubi’s House (2/3 September)
The Latest from Iran (4 September): A Qods Day Failure?

1630 GMT: Sanctions Watch. Bankers and businessmen report that most banks in the United Arab Emirates, a key trading partner and conduit for Iran, have stopped money transfers after the latest round of sanctions.

Dubai-based Iranian businessman Morteza Masoumzadeh, vice president of the Iranian Business Council, said that the latest sanctions have halved trade with Dubai, an important re-export centre for Iranian goods.

A banker with an Emirati bank said that transfers to Iran in dollars and euros are now forbidden, and have become "very difficult, if not impossible, in dirhams," the UAE's currency.

"Transactions by Iranian clients are closely monitored," the banker said, adding that certain activities by Iranian clients, such as transfers to Asia to purchase goods, are sometimes blocked.

"We used to deal with some banks in Tehran, but now it is almost impossible," the banker said.

The Iranian Foreign Ministry on Sunday responded to trouble on another front, as Japan announced it is suspending new oil and gas investments in Iran and freezing the assets of 88 organizations and 24 individuals. Spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast said any country that imposes sanctions on Iran will create problems for their companies, waste their national interests, and pass on business opportunities to their rivals.

Better news for Tehran came with the resumption of gas export to Turkey after 12 days of disruption because of an explosion, thought to be the work of the Kurdish separatist movement PKK, that damaged a major pipeline.

1523 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. More sentences against youths: an appeals court in Mazandaran in northern Iran has confirmed the prison sentences and lashings for 10 university students.

1520 GMT: The Karroubi Siege (Wasn't Us Edition --- cont.). The head of the Basij militia, Mohammad Reza Naqdi, has blamed the US, Britain, and Zionists for the attack on Mehdi Karroubi's home.

1515 GMT: We have posted updates on the detention of defense attorney Nasrine Sotoudeh and on the regime efforts to blame "Western media" for the disappointment of the Qods Day rally.

1425 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Iran's Supreme Court has confirmed the death penalty for Kurdish activist Habibollah Golparipour.

1420 GMT: The Karroubi Siege (Wasn't Us Edition). The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps has issued a statement denying involvement in the attacks on Mehdi Karroubi's home, blaming "rogue elements" for the violence and intimidation.

1415 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. A day marked by news of detentions and trials of student activists (see 0930 and 1105 GMT). It is reported that Sanandaj Azad University student Azad Kamangar was arrested by intelligence agents two days ago. His whereabouts are unknown.

Kamangar's uncle, Farzad Kamangar, was one of five Iranians executed on 9 May for alleged ties to the Kurdish separatist group PJAK.

1410 GMT: Execution (Sakineh) Watch Update. As the son of Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani asks Pope Benedict XVI (see 1220 GMT) to intervene on behalf of his mother, sentenced to death for adultery, the Vatican has issued a statement condemning stoning.

The Vatican's spokesman, the Reverend Federico Lombardi, said the Vatican had not received a formal appeal but was "following the case with attention and interest". He added, "When the Holy See is asked, in an appropriate way, to intervene in humanitarian issues with the authorities of other countries, as it has happened many times in the past, it does so not in a public way, but through its own diplomatic channels."

1220 GMT: Execution (Sakineh) Watch. Peyke Iran reports that Sajad Ghaderzadeh, the son of Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani, has appealed to Pope Benedict XVI and the Italian Government to seek clemency for his mother, who is sentenced to death for adultery.

Coincidentally, Keyhan newspaper --- which last week called French First Lady Carla Bruni a "prostitute" and said she should die after she joined the calls for leniency in Ashtiani's case --- has declared that Italian President Silvio Berlusconi, who publicly supported Ashtiani, is a "Mafia leader" and "a symbol of decadence, moral corruption, and sexual addiction".

1120 GMT: Academic Corner. Writing in Haaretz, Zvi Bar'el reports on tensions within Iran's universities. Included in the piece....

*An Iranian academic who writes Bar'el, "We will no longer be able to correspond using the previous e-mail address. I have begun work at Amirkabir University and I am afraid that the supervision of e-mails will be far more stringent," and notes difficulties with resources: "We try to glean whatever we can from the Internet, but the problem starts much earlier, with high-school students. They don't learn anything --- and I'm talking about top students who passed the exams with very high marks."

*The Supreme Leader's plan for the construction of another 1,000 mosques in schools at all levels and the addition of new religious subjects

*The difficulties for graduates in finding suitable employment, with some waiting more than three years to find suitable work.

1105 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Reformist politician Mohsen Safaei Farahani, who suffered a heart attack last week in Evin Prison, has been transferred to the Cardiac Clinic in Tehran.

The final court hearing has been held for two student activists, Bahareh Hedayat and Milad Asadi. We await word on further sentencing: in May, Hedayat received a 9 1/2-year prison term and Asadi was given six years.

1100 GMT: Stopping the Lawyers. As we await word on the fate of defense attorney Nasrine Sotoudeh, summoned to court yesterday, and note the general crackdown by the regime, we flash back to a November 2007 article in the Los Angeles Times, "In Iran, A Cadre of Lawyers Takes the Case of Justice".

0930 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Tehran’s court of appeals has confirmed the sentencing of Mohammadreza Rashad, a student activist at Azad University, to two years of suspended imprisonment. Rashad was arrested a few days after the demonstrations last December at his home and was held in detention for 3 months.

An appeals court has upheld the two-year sentence of Mohsen Abdi, a student activist at Hamadan’s Bou Ali Sina University. Abdi was also detained just after the Ashura demonstration.

0745 GMT: We have posted an open letter to journalist and activist Shiva Nazar Ahari, facing trial and a possible death penalty, from her colleague Parvaneh Vahidmanesh.

0715 GMT: Parliament and Government. Lost this week, amidst Qods Day and the Karroubi siege, is the news that 13 of 21 ministers in the Ahmadinejad Cabinet have been summoned to the Majlis. The ministers --- in science, education, social welfare, labour, foreign policy, oil, health care, interior, communications, industry, energy, and justice --- will be answering queries in several commissions. A list of 78 questions has already been posted.

0710 GMT: Film Corner. Director Jafar Panahi, detained for three months earlier this year and barred from leaving Iran, tells the US film newspaper Variety by phone, "I have learned something, and that is that I never lose hope. I hope that things will change even tomorrow, or in the next year so that I can start working again."

0645 GMT: Regrouping. A series of items on attempts by some conservatives and principlists to re-establish a common front....

Habibollah Asgarouladi used tough talk, denouncing those who "try to increase tensions everyday" and declaring that "system-breaking reformists have broken all bridges behind them" and "cannot return to the Revolution, Supreme Leader, and people". He added that some had tried to divide the clergy, but the clerics were too clever to accept this.

Asgarouladi capped out his move by saying that the "fitna" (sedition) movement was passing its last days, and the leaders were related to Al Qa'eda.

Other principlists are publicly discussing whether to make approaches to reformists or to focus on the reconstruction of their movement. Emad Afrough summarised that the solution to actual problems is that "the Revolution gets back in the hands of well-founded persons", declaring also that "there is unity in diversity".

0635 GMT: The Battle Within. Khabar Online reveals what occured during a meeting between the President and Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of the Expediency Council and 2009 Presidential candidate, two months ago.

Khabar asserts that  Ahmadinejad was given nine points of advice. These included strengthening legal institutions, support for private sector, creating a uniform management structure and opposing sanctions, supporting the domestic economy, and supporting relations with neighbouring countries.

If the report is true, this meeting took place around the time that --- according to our sources --- Rezaei was meeting Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani and key MP Ahmad Tavakoli to discuss the limiting of Ahmadinejad's authority and possibly his replacement.

Rumours of three other meetings with the President have been denied by the Rezaei camp.

0630 GMT: Speaking of Legitimacy. Prominent commentator Babak Dad has praised the letter of Fatemeh Karroubi, Mehdi Karroubi's wife, to the Supreme Leader during the siege of the Karroubi home. He notes that the mere fact that a woman would dare to write to Khamenei is an insult to the regime.

In the letter, Fatemeh Karroubi challenged the Supreme Leader by asking if he condoned the "unethical acts" of the pro-regime crowd around the Karroubi residence.

0625 GMT: The Regime Line. Javan, the newspaper linked to the Revolutionary Guard, has tried another line of attack, claiming that a group of about 100 members of the reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front members staged a rally against Mehdi Karroubi.

0620 GMT: Speaking of Legitimacy. The Palestinian Authority has struck back at Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's denunciation, in his Qods Day address on Friday, of the Israel-Palestinian direct talks.

It did so by going to the heart of Ahmadinejad's claim of authority. A spokesman said, "He who does not represent the Iranian people, who forged elections and who suppresses the Iranian people and stole the authority, is not entitled to talk about Palestine, or the President of Palestine."

0615 GMT: The Karroubi Siege and the Supreme Leader. This extract from an interview of Mehdi Karroubi's son Hossein, conducted by the International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran, is striking: “My father believes the attackers were organized by the security forces and government. There is no point in filing a lawsuit against these actions, as we know it’s not going to go anywhere. The attackers have complete impunity.”

0610 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. An Iranian activist, drawing from RAHANA, has updated the list of known political prisoners, posting 591 names.

0600 GMT: A busier than expected Saturday, with lots of follow-up on the apparent disappointment for the regime of its Qods Day show and some signs of quiet satisfaction amongst the opposition. One activist asserted, "The regime was heavily duped by the Greens.They "jaa khaali daadand" (sidestepped) and left Ahmadinejad alone with his misery."

The twist on Saturday, however, is that the Government was not ready to be left alone with misery. Instead, the evidence was of a follow-up --- as has happened on other occasions --- of intimidation. While more information came in of last week's attacks on Mehdi Karroubi's home and the Qoba Mosque in Shiraz, there was more propaganda against "enemies" and detentions.

Perhaps the most significant development was the widening of the campaign against defence lawyers with the summoning of Nasrine Sotoudeh to court. She was held overnight, and we'll be looking today to see if she has been arrested.

We're also keeping an eye out for the outcome of the trial of prominent journalist and activist Shiva Nazar Ahari, which was supposed to take place yesterday.

One correction: last night we reported a demonstration of several hundred people in Sari in Mazandaran province in northern Iran was over discrimination in university admissions. It was actually over discrimination in alllocation of jobs.

The Latest from Iran (3 September): Qods Day and the Karroubi Siege

2250 GMT: Before shutting down, we have posted the claimed video of Thursday night/Friday morning's attack on Mehdi Karroubi's house.

2220 GMT: Ending with Gratitude. EA took the night off for a music festival (yes, an EA Music Corner special may be coming in the morning).

Thanks to all for contributing information and ideas on an interesting day.

We'll be back early in the morning with the latest news and a series of special analyses on what this Qods Day meant for the Iranian regime and the opposition.

NEW Latest Iran Video: The Claimed Attack on Karroubi’s House (2/3 September)
NEW Iran Video and English Summary: Mehdi Karroubi after 5th Night of Pro-Regime Siege (3 September)
NEW Iran Urgent: Breaking News with Video on Day 5 of Karroubi “Siege”
Latest Iran Video: The Rooftop “Allahu Akbars” (2 September)
Pro-Regime Media Asks, “Which is Worse: Stoning or Prostitution?”
NEW Iran Document: Karroubi-Mousavi Meeting on Eve of Qods Day (31 August)
The Latest from Iran (2 September): Karroubi, Mousavi, and Qods Day

1930 GMT: Larijani Talks Tough on US. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, speaking to a Qods Day audience, has maintained his public line that it is not possible to hold direct talks with U.S. officials.

“Negotiation with the US is not possible and no one has the right to make compromise with the Great Satan,” said Larijani.

However, on the wider (and relevant) issue of whether Tehran would discuss uranium enrichment with the 5+1 Powers, which include the US, Larijani was ambiguous. He said that, according to the Supreme Leader’s guidelines, Iran’s policy is negotiation but not with the US.

1900 GMT: Checking in from a music festival in the centre of Britain, I find Press TV giving me the truth on the Karroubi siege.

It is largely a straightforward report of "groups of people...preventing (Karroubi) from leaving his residence in Tehran" to attend the Qods Day rally, although the casualties --- a Karroubi bodyguard is reportedly in a coma --- are reduced to "four people were reported wounded".

Then the blame sets in: "Mehdi Karroubi was one of the controversial figures following the 2009 presidential election in Iran and the frenzy that followed the vote in the wake of baseless fraud allegations against President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's re-election.

Public anger against Karroubi were intensified after his and other opposition supporters attempted to obstruct last year's Day of Quds rallies by invoking purely nationalistic slogans.

He also created controversy and public rage by airing rumors of jail-rape by unidentified individuals that had claimed to have been detained during the post-election riots."

1620 GMT: How Big Was That Rally? Fars News' lead story is that the Associated Press has reported on Iran's anti-Israel protests today, with "millions" on the streets. Earlier today, Iranian media were concerned that outlets of the "West" were minimising the crowd.

So it would seem the regime is getting very concerned that the world know that today proves it has a lot of support from its people. I'm looking for the proof: so far I can't track down the Associated Press report.

1615 GMT: Karroubi Watch. Mehdi Karroubi's Saham News, down for a few hours this afternoon (see 1445 GMT), is back on-line.

1600 GMT: How Big was the Regime Rally? Iranian Students News Agency posts a set of photographs of today's march in Tehran for Qods Day. This is the largest crowd shot in the set:



1555 GMT: Attacking the Clerics. Aftab News offers a pro-Government version of the clash today in which a pro-regime crowd --- reported by Rah-e-Sabz as "200 to 300 Basij" (see 1400 GMT) --- entered and shut down the Qoba Mosque in Shiraz, the base of Government critic Ayatollah Dastgheib.

The Facebook site supporting Mir Hossein Mousavi posts photos of those injured in the attack.

1445 GMT: Attacks on Karroubi. Mehdi Karroubi's website Saham News (see 1420 GMT) has been taken down by an apparent attack diverting readers to a "dummy" site on financial matters.

1435 GMT: Today's Alice-in-Wonderland Statement. Tabnak accuses foreign media --- who operate, if they can report at all, under strict Government oversight --- of "censoring" reports on the turnout for the Qods Day rally. Mehr levels a similar charge at CNN.

Am I sensing regime worry that the rally may not have been the grand success it wanted? Fars attacks the BBC and al-Arabiya for minimising the turnout.

1430 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Aftab News reports that former President Hashemi Rafsanjani joined today's march for Qods Day.

1425 GMT: Sanctions Watch. Japan has imposed new sanctions on Iran over Tehran's nuclear programme, banning transactions with some Iranian banks and targeting energy-related investments.

Japan approved sanctions against Iran last month, but US officials have been pressing Tokyo to adopt tougher measures.

Despite the pressure, Japan --- a major importer of Iranian crude oil --- but did not impose any restrictions on its oil imports.

1420 GMT: Karroubi Watch. Mehdi Karroubi's Saham News, a primary source of information about the siege of the Karroubi house, has been off-line for the past hour, first with a blank screen and now with a "403 Forbidden" error.

1405 GMT: Perspective. An EA source from Iran offers the following, "The deaths are going on all the time; recently two people from my town were killed by the regime. The families are forced to say they died of natural causes, but everyone knows that the regime killed them. And that is going on in every city, town, and village of the country. People are just disappearing. And those who are being killed are the people no one hears of, and those who do have a voice are being silenced.'

1400 GMT: Shutting Down the Clerics --- Clash in Shiraz. Rah-e-Sabz provides more information on the closure of the Qoba Mosque in Shiraz, the base of Government critic Grand Ayatollah Dastgheib (see 1050 GMT), this morning. The website claims that 200-300 Basij entered the mosque and proceeded to attack the cleric’s students.

1355 GMT: Academic Corner. Iran’s Deputy Minister of Higher Education, Bagher Khorramshad, has cancelled his trip to the Netherlands after protests by the Dutch-Iranian community.

The visit, organized by Clingendael (the Netherlands Institute of International Relations) and the Iran's Embassy was scheduled for 17 September.

1340 GMT: The Karroubi Siege. It looks like this story may take over from the Government's Qods Day showpiece. The latest is that Grand Ayatollah Bayat Zanjani has called Mehdi Karroubi to express his support and praise his resilience, according to reliable sources. Bayat Zanjani denounced the attacks on the Karroubi house and hoped that the pro-regime crowd would cease their activities.

One of Imam Khomeini’s grandsons, Seyed Yasser Khomeini, also visited Mehdi Karroubi to express his condolences and denounce the assailants.

1215 GMT: The Karroubi Siege. The Assembly of Teachers and Researchers of Qom Seminary School has issued a statement strongly condemned the attacks by a pro-regime crowd on Mehdi Karroubi's home.

Karroubi's Etemade Melli party have also put out a statement of condemnation.

1210 GMT: More Tough Talk (see 1040 GMT). General Mohammad Reza Naqdi, the commander of the Basij military, has complained that "our hands are closed due to treaties" when it comes to actions of Zionists. Naqdi continues, "We are waiting for a foolish move by Israel to erase it."

1050 GMT: Controlling the Clerics. The Qoba Mosque, the base of Grand Ayatollah Dastgheib, is closed for prayers, even though it is a Friday.

Dastgheib, far from coincidentally, is a prominent critic of the Government.

1040 GMT: Today's Tough Talk. Let's hand over to the head of Iran's armed forces, General Hassan Firouzabadi: ""Our developed weapons can hit any part of the Zionist regime....We hope not to be forced to attack their nuclear facility [at Dimona]."

0950 GMT: Karroubi Watch. More information from Saham News on last night's violence by the pro-regime crowd surrounding Mehdi Karroubi's house: the website claims a husband and wife were beaten. The incident allegedly began when the woman, who had her headscarf removed, was spotted using a mobile phone.

Saham News also claims the couple were detained.

Mir Hossein Mousavi and his wife Zahra Rahnavard, in a phone call to Karroubi, offered their full support "and strongly condemned the hideous and foolish actions of a group of thugs pretending to be Muslims".
0920 GMT: Rah-e-Sabz reports that security forces have flooded 7 Tir and Enghelab Squares and lined roads leading to 7 Tir from the north. Several people have been detained, one allegedly for wearing a Green bandana.

The website also claims security forces with batons are boarding metro cars in Tehran to seek out any Greens. Forces at checkpoints in Tehran and are stopping and searching people.

Mehdi Karroubi's son Hossein says his family home is still surrounded, preventing his father from getting to the Qods Day rally.

0833 GMT: Ahmadinejad's speech ends. Nothing new in a statement which was meant to whip up crowd sentiment against Israel, and certainly no references to the internal situation (apart from the President's repeated, unintended ironies on allowing the people to choose and the media to speak and on the flaws of the West in supporting "sham elections").

The far more important issue, I suppose, will be the reaction that the President's speech gets from others in the Iranian establishment as well as from the population.
0825 GMT: I'm sorry, but I can't keep a straight face when Ahmadinejad enjoins the "West" to "listen to your people" and "let the media speak": "Do not silence them. Let them raise their voice."

0820 GMT: Ahmadinejad, addressing "the US and the West", challenges them --- as the authors of the United Nations Human Rights Charter --- to support a referendum in Palestine and to hold referenda amongst their peoples over Palestine policy.

0815 GMT: Ahmadinejad now appealing to Arab leaders to "let your people be free" to "bring down the Zionist regime". He says, "Instead of relying on American and the West, you should rely on God."

0810 GMT: Ahmadinejad says, "Israel-Palestine direct talks have already failed."

0808 GMT: Ahmadinejad now criticising sham elections in Iraq. (No, he showed no sense of irony or self-reflection with that statement.)

0803 GMT: Now Ahmadinejad gets confident saying that, with the rise of Qods Day, the Zionists are under pressure and "are on the verge of collapse".
0800 GMT: More of the same from Ahmadinejad, as crowd breaks in with "Death to Israel".

0755 GMT: Karroubi Watch. Saham News reports that more than 20 motorcyclists have surrounded Mehdi Karroubi's residential complex.

0748 GMT: More from Ahmadinejad on "moral corruption" and "cultural devastation" of the "Zionist regime": "No culture is immune".

Ahmadinejad says the Zionists have "manipulated history of World War II" with the symbols of the Holocaust", which he calls a "likely crime". He adds that politicians in Europe or North America are "selected by the Zionists".

0740 GMT: President Ahmadinejad is now speaking at Tehran Friday Prayers, commenting on the repression of the Palestinian people and the "occupation" of the area over the past 60 years.

0710 GMT: Press TV is now featuring crowd shots from Kerman in central Iran and Oroumiyeh in northwestern Iran as well as Tehran.

No significant action, so Press TV is playing up the presence of Lauren Booth (the half-sister of Cherie Blair, wife of former British Prime Minister Tony Blair) as their correspondent in the centre of Tehran. She is enthusiastic, opening, "Well, I've never seen so many people take to the streets of a capital city in my life. Here we are...on Al-Qods Day 2010 with a million people expected....The message coming from Tehran today, not just to Palestine but to the world, is one of steadfastness, a message of solidarity."

0645 GMT: MediaWatch. No real movement yet, so we settle for the unintended irony of analyst Seyed Mohammad Marandi in Press TV's studio: "After the Revolution, people power is more important."

The host and Marandi continue to talk about "people power, a factor, a big factor". At no point do they reflect, as they speak in post-election Iran, that the term might hold significance in a context different from that of Palestine.

0635 GMT: The Karroubi story continues to hold centre stage as we wait for the Qods Day rallies for the regime. We have posted the video and English summary of the cleric's TV interviews after the violence on the fifth night of the siege of his house by a pro-regime crowd.

0535 GMT: Today is Qods (Palestine) Day in Iran. Established by Ayatollah Khomeini on the last Friday of the holy month of Ramadan, the occasion traditionally shows solidarity with the Palestinian people as they seek independence. Last year, however, the day took on a different tone, as those protesting the 2009 Presidential election and the Government's actions demonstrated on the streets.

A year later, after the regime's suppression of dissent and amidst the continuing turmoil within the system, there is unlikely to be a significant show of opposition. Instead, the question is: can the regime and Government offer an enthusiastic demonstration of support for their legitimacy? The showpiece will be Friday Prayers in Tehran, where President Ahmadinejad will take the podium before Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami offers the Friday Prayer speech.

Already, however, the Government's effort has been complicated, if not overshadowed, by the events of Thursday night outside the residence of Mehdi Karroubi. The fifth night of the siege by a pro-regime crowd escalated into violence that caused damage and injures, as assailants tried to get into the Karroubi house.

An EA correspondent gets to the heart of the issue and thus the possible difficulties for the regime, even as it tries to parade its authority today:

Either Ayatollah Khamenei knews and approved the attack, or he is unable to stop it. Ahmadinejad on the other hand probably knev and secretly approves.This whole sordid affair casts a sorry light over the government's insecurity and its reliance on intimidation and threats in order to cow the opposition into silence.

We have continuing coverage of the Karroubi siege in a separate entry.

Iran Video & English Summary: Mehdi Karroubi and Son On 5th Night of Pro-Regime Siege (3 September)

UPDATE 1220 GMT: Mehdi Karroubi's son Hossein tells Deutsche Welle that last night's attack was a response to his mother's letter on Wednesday to Ayatollah Khamenei.

Fatemeh Karroubi had described the siege of her home and asked the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei if he condoned such “unethical acts”.

UPDATE 1040 GMT: Video of the burned and damaged residential complex of Mehdi Karroubi:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iFl-5hJ6_xM&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]

Iran Urgent: Breaking News with Video on Day 5 of Karroubi "Siege"

UPDATE 0900 GMT: The audio of Radio Farda's interview with Hossein Karroubi, carried out during last night's attacks (see earlier updates), has been posted.

After the violence during the siege of his house last night, Mehdi Karroubi spoke with Rasa TV:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hDoFugoW0Os[/youtube]

Summary from Facebook page supporting Mir Hossein Mousavi:

Following these events Mehdi Karroubi in an interview with Rasa TV once again announced that he is ready to pay any price and will stand in this path till the end.

Karroubi also once again stressed attendance T the Qods Day demonstrations.

Mehdi Karroubi in this phone interview said: "Following the elections many events happened in the country and everyone witnessed the consequences. We also expressed our positions clearly and caringly. But my clear and frank positions regarding hte country's issues have not gone well with these guys and [therefore] they plan these events and attacks."

Mehdi Karroubi, citing problems such as fraud in the 10th Presidential election (of June 2009) and also problems with foreign policy, said: "Not only there was fraud but there was engineering of votes. From the very beginning the outcome of the election has been decided. We made a mistake entering the election race. We were optimistic and thought that we have elections in this country but later on we realized that this is not the case."

Mehdi Karroubi again emphasised that he did not regret taking this path and declared his readiness to debate pro-government representatives.

Karroubi said: "Regarding the sanctions and the problems with foreign policy, I am announcing that essentially a part of the Revolutionary Guards is [creating] this situation, and they create tensions as much as possible so that in the shadow of sanctions they can plunder people's wealth."

Karroubi added, "This administration that cannot solve the problems of foreign policy or solve economic and cultural problems, and in fact cannot do anything, is after creating tension. Its life depends on the crises."

Mehdi Karroubi emphasised that he supported the Islamic Republic but said,

The current government is not Islamic Republic. Neither its Islamic aspect not its Republic aspect have been preserved. What the people wanted and carried out a revolution for it is different from what is in power today --- if it was [Islamic and a Republic] many of the problems of the people would be solved. The people of Iran are Muslim and are not at warwith Islam and are not at war with the Republic....

Mehdi Karroubi said that the reason for the thugs gathering in the recent nights at his house is his statements on participation in Qods Day: "They have been gathering for five nights, chant slogans, break the windows and tonight it was escalated to its peak. But I am standing. Both myself and my family are ready to pay any price; I am staying here, I am not going anywhere and I have my plans."

Mehdi Karroubi, while expressing sorrow over the discomfort and harassment that the thugs have imposed on his neighbors and family, said:

Where in the world do they organize a bunch of juvenile thugs and muggers to make chaos and insult a political opponent because of disagreement? At this moment that I am talking with you after midnight. They are chanting slogans in the street. It is even more tragic that, after all these scandals, insults, breaking the windows, they start reading the Quran in the street and mourning for Imam Hossein (Shia's third Imam). Apparently they are determined to disgrace Islam.

Mehdi Karroubi in another interview with Saham News...said: "On this holy night (Qadr Night), whatever the almighty God has destined for me, I will welcome with open arms and until my last breath I will not give up on people's rights."

Despite the insistence of his guards and family, Mehdi Karroubi refused to leave the building:" I am standing until the end."

The Latest from Iran (1 September): The Threat of Stoning

1750 GMT: Repression. The International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran has issued a new statement, "Authorities in the Islamic Republic of Iran are continuing to arrest and jail civil society activists while persecuting and prosecuting independent lawyers."

“With a majority of Iranian human rights activists and lawyers already imprisoned or forced into exile, their remaining colleagues are systematically being taken down by the government of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad,” Aaron Rhodes, a Campaign spokesperson said.

1740 GMT: At the Movies. Esteemed director Jafar Panahi, who was detained for three months earlier this year, has been barred by Iran authorities from attending the Venice Film Festival.

Panahi's short film "Accordion" is showing at the event, but he claims he has officially been banned from making movies for five years. He says, ""Despite having been released, I am still not free to travel outside my country to attend film festivals. When a filmmaker is not allowed to make films, it is as if his mind was still imprisoned. Maybe he is not locked up in a small cell, but he keeps wandering in a much bigger jail."

NEW Iran Special: Thoughts on Protest, Stoning, and Human Rights (Shahryar)
Iran: Ahmadinejad’s Trash Talk (Theodoulou)
Iran Witness: Activist Mahboubeh Karami on Six Months in Detention
Iran: The Latest on the Karroubi “Siege” and the Qods Day Rally
The Latest from Iran (31 August): Unity? What Unity?

1515 GMT: Karroubi Watch. In a meeting with clerics and students of Qom, Mehdi Karroubi has said the intrusion of some security and intelligence forces in hawzah (religious circles) is "very alarming".

1500 GMT: Economy Watch. Conservative MP Ali Motahari, a member of Parliament's Communications Commission, has issued a warning over privatisation: "We oppose any kind of monopoly in the (tele)communications sector."

Khabar Online reports an extensive reshuffle of officials in Iran's national oil company is on the way, concluding that the move is "not sensible at all".

An EA correspondent reads the report as a warning of consolidation of power by Ahmadinejad allies.

1440 GMT: Today's We-Are-Not-Scared-at-All Message. Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi has declared, "If people stage a riot or coup, we must stop them with security forces."

1425 GMT: Another Slap at Ahmadinejad's Foreign Policy. Hossein Sobhani-Nia, a member of the National Security Council, has repeated the Supreme Leader's criticism of the President's appointment of four special representatives for international matters.

Sobhani-Nia declared that Ayatollah Khamenei had said that the Foreign Ministry's position should not be damaged. He emphasised that, for unity in foreign policy and in accordance with the Constitution, all decisions must be made by the Foreign Ministry. Parallel organisations should not stop that and division in foreign policy should not prevent Iran from reaching its goals.

1415 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Teacher's union activist Mokhtar Asadi has been released on bail after two months in detention.

1400 GMT: The Karrroubis Fight the Siege. Fatemeh Karroubi, the wife of Mehdi Karroubi, has written to the Supreme Leader to condemn the attacks on her home and family by pro-regimes crowds.

Fatemeh Karroubi asks the Leader: “What do the disagreements between you and my husband over issues, that are evident to all by now, have to do with our right to live?”

She pulls no punches as she describes the crowd chanting “derogatory words” against Mehdi Karroubi and “writing slogans on the walls of the residential complex and the neighbours' houses": “These obvious crimes are taking place with your support and in front of the security forces who do not dare to approach these attackers.”

So, noting the policy of “attacking the family and neighbours of political opponents”, Fatemeh Karroubi asks Ayatollah Khamenei if he condones such “unethical acts".

1350 GMT: Claim of the Day. From the Supreme Leader's representative to the Revolutionary Guards, Mojtaba Zolnour: "Israel is out to kill the hidden (12th) Imam."

1345 GMT: Academic Corner. Minister of Science Kamran Daneshjoo, who threatened universities with "destruction" if they were not Islamic enough, now wants a referendum on their fate.

Iranian authorities have "retired" almost 20 senior officials at universities in recent months.

0920 GMT: A Break in Service for Birthdays and Monkeys. It is Ms EA's birthday today, and we're celebrating by going to Monkey Forest --- yes, really.

I'll be away until late afternoon but, as usual, I know I can rely on EA's top-flight readers to bring in the latest news and analysis.

0825 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Mojgan Ebadi and Nasim Rouhi, both of the Baha'i community, have been re-arrested 24 hours after their release from prison.

RAHANA also reports that more activists have been detained in northern Khuzestan in western Iran.

0815 GMT: The Next Campaign? International attention to the case of 18-year-old Ebrahim Hamidi, sentenced to death for sodomy, is growing. Writers Philippe Besson and Gilles Leroy organised an open letter by French activists, publicised by Le Monde last week.

0715 GMT: If You Don't Accept Stoning, You are a Prostitute (cont.). The Foreign Ministry may have told off "hard-line" media for calling Carla Bruni, the wife of French President Nicolas Sarkozy, a "prostitute" after she criticised the death sentence handed down to Sakineh Mohammad Ashtiani; however, the message does not seem to have gotten through.

Iran Newspaper on Network (INN), citing British reports of Bruni's past affair with singer Mick Jagger, declares, "Western Media approved implicitly the fact that Carla Bruni is a prostitute". (The story has been reprinted in the almost surreal website www.barackobama.ir. More on this "news outlet" later in the week.)

0655 GMT: Sieges for Qods Day. Pro-regime crowds, who surrounded the home of Mehdi Karroubi on Sunday and Monday night, reportedly moved to the house of reformist politician and cleric Abdollah Nouri on Tuesday evening.

0650 GMT: Freedom of the Press? Daneshjoo News reports that several journalists of Nasim-e Bidari magazine were threatened and interrogated on Tuesday.

0645 GMT: On Air. RASA TV, the Internet-based opposition channel, is now broadcasting.

0605 GMT: Labour Front. Writing for In These Times, Kari Lyderson reports on the continuing repression of Iran's trade unionists, specifically members of the Vahed Bus Workers Syndicate.

0600 GMT: We have posted a special feature by Josh Shahryar, reflecting on the reaction to his speech at last Saturday's rally in Washington against stoning, "Thoughts on Protest, Stoning, and Human Rights".

0500 GMT: We noted earlier this week how the controversy had grown over the death sentence for adultery --- initially to be carried out by stoning, though that has been suspended --- handed down on Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani; indeed, the Iranian Government was now appearing very unsettled by the reaction.

Although one website supporting the Government has tried to deflect the issue with the question, "Does the West Want a Real Discussion with Iran?", it is unlikely to disappear. There are reports of two other people condemned to die by stoning. Yesterday Ashtiani's son Sajad said his mother was subjected to a "mock execution", told last Saturday that she was to be hanged at dawn on Sunday.

Ashtiani wrote her will and embraced her cellmates in Tabriz Prison just before the call to morning prayer, but nothing happened as she waited. Sajad Ashtiani said, "Pressure from the international community has so far stopped them from carrying out the sentence but they're killing her every day by any means possible."

Sajad Ashtiani added that he had been told by Iranian authorities that the file on his father's murder case had been lost. Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani, first convicted of adultery, was later found guilty of complicity in the homicide.