The Latest from Iran: Responding to the Trial (26 August)

The Latest from Iran (25 August): The Trials Resume
The 4th Tehran Trial: The Tehran Bureau Summary
Video: The 4th Tehran Trial (25 August)
The Tehran Trial: The Regime Goes After the Reformists AND Rafsanjani

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2145 GMT: The Tehran Times has published an English summary of the letter from the Rafsanjani office striking back at former 1st Vice President and current Ahmadinejad Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai (see 1225 and 1545 GMT):

“Mr. Mashaii’s record in making incorrect and illogical statements is so clear that there is no need for a reply,” but in light of the fact that the person who has made such fabrications was supposed to become the president’s first vice president and is currently the chief of staff of the Presidential Office, it seems that there is “a very complex conspiracy” to create conflict among the pillars of the establishment, part of the statement read.

The statement also called Rahim-Mashaii’s remarks hallucinations and added that the Supreme Leader had earlier warned the country’s officials about such hallucinations.

2110 GMT: Associated Press has published an English summary of Ayatollah Montazeri's open letter (see 1605 GMT): "The biggest oppression ... is despotic treatment of the people in the name of Islam. I hope the responsible authorities give up the deviant path they are pursuing and restore the trampled rights of the people....I hope authorities...have the courage to announce that this ruling system is neither a republic nor Islamic and that nobody has the right to express opinion or criticism."

2055 GMT: The Rafsanjani Fightback. Remember the former President's delay in passing Mehdi Karroubi's 29 July letter asking for an investigation of abuse claims? Well, after yesterday's trial events, compare and contrast this news: Rafsanjani has passed the cases of two rape victims to the Supreme Leader, to Ayatollah Montazeri, and to Ayatollah Sistani in Iraq.

2000 GMT: Some members of Parliament are objecting to the composition of the special National Security Committee investigating post-election events such as abuse of detainees. Their concern is that three pro-Ahmadinejad members of the committee have already asserted in interviews that the prisoners are in good condition and that there has been no torture, rape, or secret burials.

1945 GMT: Fars News has now published (as has Parleman News) a full summary of the Supreme Leader's statement, initially given to a meeting of the Student Leaders of the Islamic Revolution. It contains the extracts we've noted below, within this context: Ayatollah Khamenei noted incidents such as raids on University dormitories and clashes in the Central Bazaar area soon after the election but put these within the context of the legitimacy in which 85 percent of the population participated.

1915 GMT: Reuters adds an important proviso on the Khamenei statement. Just because he is stepping away from the "velvet revolution" charge does not mean he is giving complete absolution to the demonstrators: "There is no doubt that this movement, whether its leaders know or not, was planned in advance."

The Reuters framing also indicates that the Supreme Leader may not have been rejecting the current trials but drawing a line against any more arrests of key opposition figures.

1900 GMT: Want Some More? How about a possible slap-down of the trials and detentions from the Supreme Leader? "We should not proceed in dealing with those behind the protests based on rumours and guesswork. The judiciary should only give rulings based on solid evidence, not on circumstantial evidence."

And let's add a warning that some of those involved in detentions and violence against protestors may face their own reckoning: "I appreciate the work of the police and Basij [militia] in dealing with the riots, but this does not mean that some of the crimes which occurred will not be dealt with and anyone who is a member of those two who committed a fault should be dealt with."

1845 GMT: An Important Signal? The Supreme Leader has finally emerged after yesterday's trial, and it looks like he may be putting some distance between himself and President Ahmadinejad. In a statement read on state TV, Ayatollah Khamenei declared:

I do not accuse the leaders of the recent incidents to be subordinate to the foreigners, like the United States and Britain, since this issue has not been proven for me. This plot was defeated, since fortunately our enemies still do not understand the issue in Iran. Our enemies were given a slap in face by the Iranian nation, but they are still hopeful and they are pursuing the issue.

It is one thing for the Supreme Leader to rebuff the President's attack on Hashemi Rafsanjani, but this appears to be a message to back off the campaign against the reformists.

1605 GMT: Grand Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri has re-entered the political arena with an open letter: "For worldly gains, gentlemen have closed their eyes and ears and hearts on all facts. They should have courage and announce that this regime is neither Islamic nor Republic."

1555 GMT: A Crack in the Coverage. Press TV English's website, in contrast to the anti-reformist drumbeat of much of Iran's state media, has an extended feature on the refusal of defendant Abdollah Ramezanzadeh, the deputy head of the Islamic Iran Participant Front (see yesterday's updates, 1720 GMT) to confess after yesterday's trial: "As a reformist I have always held clear positions. I have always opposed all forms of illegal activities and my stance has not changed."

1545 GMT: More on the Rafsanjani Fightback. The response of Rafsanjani's office to the statements of former 1st Vice President Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai (see 1225 GMT) has not only called them pure fabrications but has stated, "Mashai and Ahmadinejad must defend their accusations in an honest and qualified court."

1535 GMT: Who Will Have Dinner with Mahmoud? Understandably, there has been much glee amongst opponents of the President at the news that only 20 of 290 MPs showed up at his "breaking of the fast" meal on Sunday. An EA correspondent sends in a more accurate and more important assessment:

Instead of lobbying the conservative faction as a whole over his Cabinet choices, Ahmadinejad has decided to enter into individual negotiations with MPs from economically challenged areas and remote provinces.

He has been trying to woo these MPs by inviting them for Eftar, the evening meal of Ramadan, at the Presidential residence. However, although the number of these parties have increased, most MPs have given Ahmadinejad the cold shoulder. Only 1/3 of the MPs from economically-challenged areas and remote provinces have broken bread with the president. One of the pro-Ahmadinejad MPs has declared that eight of the suggested ministers lack basic qualifications for attaining confidence votes.

1520 GMT: 24 hours after the latest post-election trial, Mehdi Karroubi has written to the new head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, to congratulate him and to express his hope, "considering the sensitive political and social conditions", that Larijani will ensure "the implementation of the Constitution, the legal defense of freedom and citizenship rights, and the maintenance legal justice to defend the dignity of the system".

1240 GMT: EA Public Service Announcement. Initially we were going to bring out a detailed analysis today of the Tehran trial and its impact, but we're watching carefully how certain groups and individuals, especially Hashemi Rafsanjani, manoeuvre. So the special analysis, "Iran Showdown: The Regime's Battle on Three Fronts", will be posted Thursday morning.

1225 GMT: And That's Not All. Rafsanjani, or those allied with him, have also struck back in a statement condemning recent remarks by the former First Vice President and Ahmadinejad ally Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai.

1210 GMT: Picking up on the Rafsanjani fightback against the charges in the Tehran trial, we should note that Rafsanjani's son, Mehdi Hashemi, did not merely proclaim his innocence. He also turned the allegations of corruption and mismanagement back against the President, claiming that Tehran had "lost" 340 billion tomans (almost $3.5 million) when Ahmadinejad was Mayor of the city.

1130 GMT: The offer of former President Mohammad Khatami has issued a statement criticising "confessions" in the Tehran trials, obtained under "extraordinary circumstances", as invalid and rejecting the specific charges that were made against him. (Reuters has an English-language summary.)

0815 GMT: The Disappearing American. The US media's coverage of the Tehran trial yesterday was poor, and reporters still have no clue about the significance of the testimony about the Rafsanjani family. Even so, there appears to be an extraordinary gap in their coverage.

When French national Clotilde Reiss appeared in an earlier trial, she was the focus of attention from "Western" press. However, when academic Kian Tajbakhsh, a dual Iran-US national, not only appeared as a defendant but testified yesterday, the American media seem to have been asleep. CNN refers to Tajbakhsh only in the context of Saeed Hajjarian's testimony (MSNBC does briefly mention Tajbaksh's statement). The New York Times leaves the academic out of their summary.

We hope to have a full analysis later of how the Iranian regime is using Tajbakhsh, as well as the Iranian defendants, to construct the "velvet revolution" that is supposedly threatening Tehran.

0805 GMT: Irony Alert. Less than 24 hours after Tuesday's trial, Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejeie, the former Minster of Intelligence and Iran's new Prosecutor General, has declared: "The performance of justice must start with the judiciary."

0800 GMT: Tuesday's Other Court Appearance. Hossein Karroubi, the son of Presidential candidate Mehdi Karroubi, was summoned to court to answer charges about his involvement in post-election conflict. He later spoke with Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: "They brought up several charges against me, including propaganda against the establishment, spreading prostitution, agitating public opinion, attempting to [assist] rioters, and so on. I responded that the country's youth had shed its blood in the streets, and young detainees in prison had been killed in the worst possible ways. We talked about what these things [mean] for the health of the [state]. They let me go after I paid bail."

Hossein Karorubi added that Monday's discussion between his father and members of Parliament over Mehdi Karroubi's allegations of abuse of detainees was "a very good meeting. Both the parliament members and Mr. Karroubi were satisfied....They first have to investigate the four cases, then Mr. Karroubi will present other cases."

0650 GMT: No to a Presidential Bright Idea. Ahmadinejad, in a move which I am sure is unconnected with current politics, proposed that working hours in governmental offices and banks be reduced during Ramadan by more than three hours each day. Speaker of Parliament Larijani squashed the ploy, however, declaring that the proposal was "against the constitution".

0640 GMT: More on the Secret Burials of Protestors. In this video interview with BBC Persian, Hanif Mazroui, the editor-in-chief of Norooz Online, has offered additional evidence of how government officials forced the staff of Behesht-e-Zahra cemetery to inter 40 bodies of slain demonstrators in mid-July.

Yesterday the managing director of the cemetery was fired by the Government, but Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani has ordered that a group of MPs investigate the allegations.

0630 GMT: The next public stage in the battle? It could be this Friday's prayers in Tehran.

The big event will not be the prayer address, led by Hojatoleslam Sadighi. Instead, it will be the introduction to prayers by President Ahmadinejad. No doubt there will be politics behind (and perhaps in front of) religion, with the President following up on the attacks of the trial and making the case for his Cabinet 48 hours before Parliament begins voting on his Ministerial nominations.

But, further down the religious and political roads, the Friday prayer service to watch will be on the last Friday of Ramadan, which I think will be 18 Spetember. On Qods Day, the prayer leader will be Hashemi Rafsanjani.

0625 GMT: It seems so long ago, but it was only last Saturday that Hashemi Rafsanjani's statement to the Expediency Council prompted feverish speculation on whether he was giving in to the regime, with his call for unity behind the Supreme Leader, or setting up his next manoeuvre. To help clarify matters --- and read into that whatever you wish --- Rafsanjani's website has put up the audio of the former President's statement.

600 GMT: We should get a sense today of the effectiveness of the regime's dramatic move yesterday, using the Tehran trial not only as an all-out assault on the reformist movement but against the challenge of Hashemi Rafsanjani. We're working on a full analysis for later today. (Here are a couple of teasers: did the Supreme Leader support the assault? And how will the conservatives and principlists, with a majority inside Parliament and powerful figures outside it, react given their recent disquiet with President Ahmadinejad's approach on detentions?)

Meanwhile, another clue from the trial pointing to Rafsanjani as a primary target for Ahmadinejad and the Revolutionary Guard. The journalist Mohammad Atrianfar, a key figure in the Kargozaran party linked to Rafsanjani, was brought out again --- he had "confessed" on national television after the first trial --- to attack the former President's June letter to the Supreme Leader that raised concerns about manipulation of the election. The "criticism was inappropriate" and "not suitable for national publication".

Comments

[florence Achard]

Hossein Karroubi to Radio Free Europe/ Radio Liberty about the meeting between his father and the parliament investigation committee:
"It was a very good meeting. Both the parliament members and Mr. Karrubi were satisfied with the meeting. They first have to investigate the four cases, [and] then Mr. Karrubi will present other cases."

25 august 1220 GMT: Farhad Tajari, a member of the Parliamentary National Security Committee has told the Islamic Republic News Agency, “After a meeting with [Mehdi] Karoubi yesterday and based on our thorough and complete investigation…..We believe the claims [of sexual abuse of detainees] are baseless.”

????????

[Amy]

The education begins to sink in. At first when I read (0640 GMT) that Ali Larijani ordered an investigation of the secret burials, I was hopeful... There was no public request for action on this issue-- at last maybe he wants to reveal the truth. Then I realized that it's nothing. Somebody told Larijani to certify that it never happened... or maybe that a couple of bad apples had buried 2 or 3 bodies there. (Here in the US, our last administration explained to us how much a couple of bad apples can accomplish). Less likely but not impossible: he may intend to further undermine AN by discovering all the bodies.

If my interpretation is wrong, maybe at least the level of cynicism is appropriate for Larijani's announcement. I'm not ready for the deeper game yet. Don't give up if the next post is hopelessly naïve.

[whereismyvote]

@ Amy

Larijani was also to investigate the prison abuse, the torture of prisoners and many other cases. In the last 16 years the Larijani brothers have done nothing but uphold the wishes of the S.L.
Your hope in him is naive and wrong. If you have correct expectations you will not be disappointed. If you think Iran will be any better w the Larijani's don't think so. This monster spread lies and propaganda for a good 12 years as head of voice and vision (National Broadcaster) and now as the leader of parliament is in charge of the rubber stamp. Stamping legality on all that happens. For theater they throw in some legislation he rejects. Such as reduced hours. Then he can proclaim to be independent. Tehran Bureau has a good starter analysis of the Larijani clans. I would say they are like a fungus personally, or a tape worm...

[Amy]

whereismyvote
Maybe I was too flippant in my comment. I was trying to say that I'm learning to be skeptical of such announcements. I'll check out that TB article though.

[Afshin]

Hi Amy,

Perhaps this helps in understanding how things work in Iran. You have diffrent groups wanting all a piece of the same pie. Sometimes when your demands are not met, you start looking around to see what smells, when u find something that smells kinda bad you start asking questions and demand investigation till the truth comes to surface. In the meantime you do your deals behind the scene. You get what you want and annouce without an investigation is even started that nothing of significance was found. Case closed.

There is a story from what was claimed to be a very reliable unnamed source, that a unknown politician is asked to run for parlement by the Hashemi clan, his campaign is paid and he is even given some extra pocket money. Few years later having been elected and being responsible for the oil portefolio he is requested behind the scenes to start asking questions about a certain oil deal made, demanding the files etc etc etc... Shortly afterwards he is requested to not even having looked at anything or investigated anything to report that all issues relating to that file look perfectly ok. Weather this specific story is true or not, it is something that one sees happen again and again, people shout wolf and immidiatly correct them selves.

Recent Example. Larrijani cries faul, within a day corrects himself, 2 hours later his brother is pointed head of judiciary.

[k_irandoost]

RE: 210 GMT
340 billion tomans = $350 million

[florence Achard]

whereismyvote,

I totally agree with what you say, that's why I don't understand why the Karroubi father and son sound so optimistic about the meeting with the committee (see my earlier comment)

I also found this: "Committee member Farhad Tajari said the judiciary chief and the speaker of parliament had "given the necessary security guarantees to those who are ready to testify about sexual abuse in prison" but that he did not see the claims as reliable" (reuters 26 august) .

I think Karroubi's move is hopeless and dangerous for those who dare testify and for himself possibly; the only good that could come of it is the publicity the allegations of abuse are given.

[Amy]

Afshin
So who is threatened if Larrijani plays out this hand? What is he after?

[Afshin]

@ florence Achard

Absolutly disagree with this. Karoubi is no rookie. He would not do this if he was not sure someone had his back. Now I am not saying that something will come out of this for sure. BUT even if nothing comes out of it for regular folks, for people like Hashemi and Karoubi it may very well do behind the scene. (though I doubt a deal will be made between Guards and Hashemi)

This is a war and the strategy of the 'Reformist/Hashemi" allience is to for now fight this through legal channels. They are starting to remove more and more people from positions of power. This is by the way something that also A.N and pasdaran are doing in their turn. A.N has won to a great extent the war within the Ministery of Intelligence but is losing it big within the Judicary.

The appointment of S. Larrijani opens door for removing, appointing and even prosecuting people.

For now they are just showing their musceles but if no one backs down you will see the battle getting fierce and people having to show their true colours more and more openly.

[Afshin]

@ Amy,

this is another attack on Pasdaran. This could influence people like Taeb head of the Basij being even arrested. The problem however is how dirty are the hands of Mojtaba in this. (indeed son of the S.L) That dimension of the story overcomplicates things.

It's a deadly card to play and should scare the living daylights out of A.N and pasdaran, but if the rumours are true that Taeb takes orders directly from Mojtaba Khamenei is it a card that one really can play ?

[Amy]

re. the Stalin mock trials... which one is Stalin here? Doesn't seem like it's AN. It has a more shadowy feeling.

Can S. Larrijani use the real judiciary to overrule the mock judiciary? (assuming it would not happen out of concern for the prisoners)

[Amy]

If Pasdaran are behind the mock trials, maybe S. Larrijani and A. Larrijani are combining for a pincher attack on Pasdaran-- the secret dead and the unconstitutional trials. Would Mojtaba Khamenei be willing to risk losing that much legitimacy?

[Afshin]

@Amy

I seriously doubt if the S.L would OK to hang the dirty laundry outside specially if it may involve his son. Like I said this is just showing muscels for now. But it may be a last resort and it remains something that must be taken very seriously as it could have seriuos consequences for some individuals.

It is difficult to predict what is going to happen.

[whereismyvote]

@ florence Achard:

My take on these rape charges is as follows:
Karoubi knows he is barking up the wrong tree, but he wants something in return for sutting up. Watch him either get his paper ban lifted or else make a more radical move to set up an external satelitte channel. Now he will push the rape allegations all the way until they give him something for backing off.

Two things will come of it, and they are:
1) There are many secrets in the state, against all players. AN stole, Pasdaran stole, the SL has taken much bribes, rape has been a systematic part of the system for 30 years and AN broke a taboo and let out some of the secrets. Karoubi shows with this move that he will fight fire with fire, so its a warning to others to check the AN dog or else

2) Iranian people are very ignorant and suffer from the ostrich syndrome. Many highly educated people have told me that the rapes never happened or that it happened by foreigners etc. They want not to believe that an Iranian can do such evil to another Iranian. These are reformers I am talking of, and not Hezbollah idiots..... Karoubi needs to give these people and the rest of the reformers a wake up call of the tragedy that lies around the corner, if they don't wake up and stay united. Once these stories go public, they can not be denied anymore.

Other than this, let me tell you upfront the response. There needs to be three witnesses that saw the rape. Which prisoner is going to be able to pull out three witnesses? Then there will be three witnesses pulled out saying that the man or woman wanted to have sex with the culprit, and hence it was purely an Islamic arrangement. Rape has happened for 30 years in Iran under the guidance of Islam in its prisons. Many investigations have done as we say Mast Malli (rubbing yogurt) on the subject.

Karoubi is not stupid, he has adopted the AN tactics to fight back. While Mousavi takes up different tactics. With each player fighting back differently, they hope to see which has a higher chance of success.

[Scott Lucas]

I want to thank all of you for an excellent discussion. I was originally going to run an analysis this morning based on the reactions to the trial but I'm holding off until Thursday, to think about and hopefully "borrow" your points.

S.

[florence Achard]

scott,

I can't agree with you when you write:

"the refusal of defendant Abdollah Ramezanzadeh, the deputy head of the Islamic Iran Participant Front (...) to confess after yesterday’s trial"

he said:""As I said prior to the elections, a large turnout makes vote rigging impossible, and the turnout was very high this time," he added when asked about whether the elections were held in a fair manner."

It amounts to confessing the reformers are wrong when they say AN is not legitimate. I'm not saying it doesn't take a lot of courage to say even as little as he said in such a pig circus, but you can't really call that a refusl to confess.

[florence Achard]

and thanks a million times for your excellent work!

[florence Achard]

whereismyvote,

everything you say is very interesting.
I never meant to say that Karroubi was stupid or a rookie, I just couldn't figure what he was expecting from his move but I understand better now; let's wait and see...

[Nancy]

Any comments on the following--if confirmed, seems like big news given that big part of show trials is alleging foreign interference.

(AGI) - Tehran, 26 August - Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has distanced himself from Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The Iranian Supreme Guide has declared that leaders of the Iranian opposition (Mir Hossein Moussavi and Mehdi Karroudbi among others) are not supported by foreign powers. "I am not accusing the leaders of the recent incidents of being under the orders of foreigners like the United States and Great Britain, because no proof has been given to me of this" said Khamenei in a statement read on State TV.

http://bit.ly/4E9Bk8

[kevina]

^^@Nancy: My comment: See ya, Mahmoud! You're done!

[Lügen, Korruption, Prostitutio]

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[Scott Lucas]

Florence,

Re-reading the article, I take your point. I should rephrase as "refusal to confess" to the specific charges of instigating a velvet revolution through pre- and post-election activity. You are right that this was coupled with a proclamation of the election as legitimate.

S.

[Scott Lucas]

Nancy,

See updates --- we were waiting for confirmation from established source, which has now come from Agence France Presse.

S.

[whereismyvote]

Thanks Scott; post the late development today, I think you will have a heck of a time analysing for tomorrow. It seems that the closing of ranks between Khamanei and Rafsanjani that you talked of, last week is actually bearing fruit for the shark.

The pendulum swings again.

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