Tuesday
Sep222009
The Latest from Iran (22 September): A Trip to New York
Tuesday, September 22, 2009 at 10:15
Iran: More on Rafsanjani and Khamenei’s End-of-Ramadan Speech
The Latest from Iran (21 September): Distractions
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1105 GMT: Speculation of Day. According to witness accounts, members' turnout at the Assembly of Experts meeting was the highest ever, but the Vice Chairman, Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, a fervent supporter of President Ahmadinejad, was absent.
1045 GMT: 1030 GMT: More on the Rafsanjani statement, as presented by ILNA:
As expected, it is very clever and very cautious, with interpretation left to the beholder. Rafsanjani upheld the greatness of the Iranian nation on Qods Day, as the "holy and glorious presence" of marchers make clear that the defense of rights would never be forgotten. Iranians were ever-ready to stand up to "imperialists" and their "psychological warfare" trying to reduce Iran to "passivity" ahead of negotiations. The priority for Iranians was the "unity of our country".
Nothing there to separate Rafsanjani from the Government, especially as the call could be read as defiance of the "West" in talks on Iran's nuclear question. And the former President's reference to the recent assassination of the Kurdestan member of the Assembly was a call to support the security forces and judiciary as they investigated and prosecuted such crimes.
But what of the security forces, and the Government behind them, in the post-election conflict? Ahh, there's the rub: there's no obvious reference by Rafsanjani on that key matter, leaving his audience --- whatever their position on and in the issue --- in suspense.
1030 GMT: Gary Sick offers an excellent analysis of a recent poll of Iranians regarding the election and its aftermath. EA's Chris Emery adds his own take:
0945 GMT: The spin is coming in on Hashemi Rafsanjani's statement at the Assembly of Experts meeting. The Iranian Labor News Agency links a call for unity with a declaration that resolution is imminent: "Those who care about the Regime have devised a plan to get out of current situation."
0915 GMT: The "Western" media are running with "news" that President Ahmadinejad has claimed that "his country is now stronger than ever and warned that Iranian military will retaliate with full might against anyone who dares attack it".
This is not news. If Ahmadinejad had told those assembled for the military parade commemorating the 1980-1988 Iraq War that Iran was really weak and its military hopeless, that would be news. The story, however, will set up tomorrow's coverage of the UN speech: Big, Bad Ahmadinejad and the World That Must Confront Him.
Of course, it's not like Mahmoud isn't helping the portrayal: “Our armed forces will cut the hand of anyone in the world before it pulls the trigger against the Iranian nation,” Ahmadinejad said during a military parade marking the anniversary of the start of the 1980-1988 Iraq-Iran war.
0415 GMT: All very quiet in Iran in the last 24 hours, apart from some rumblings over the position of Imam Khomenei's grandson, Seyed Hassan Khomenei (see yesterday's updates). The regime will roll out a two-day setpiece ,with the presentation of detainees Saeed Hajjarian, Mohammad Atrianfar, and Saeed Shariati in a televised "roundtable" to discuss how the velvet revolution has been pursued against Iran. And Press TV has an intriguing story, given President Ahmadinejad's attempts to ensure a "proper" bureaucracy responding to his wishes, of "the first of the post-presidential-election diplomatic appointments of the Ahmadinejad government...being implemented with new ambassadors lined up for European countries".
But it appears that we are in the midst of a 72-hour diversion with President Ahmadinejad presenting himself as undisputed leader in front of the United Nations General Assembly. He will speak at about 5 p.m. New York time (2100 GMT) on Wednesday. This will get sneers and denunciations from most of the "Western" media, but mainly over his references to Israel and possibly Iran's nuclear programme. Iranian state media will hail the pride of the nation in their President on the world stage.
Opposition activists are pinning hopes on a show of protest, with Mir Hossein Mousavi's Facebook page laying out a schedule of events. At the risk of being a jaded cynic, I'm not sure there is enough attention to the Iran issue in the US now to generate a high-profile demonstration, at least on the Iranian internal issue. (There will undoubtedly be protests from pro-Israel groups, but I'm not sure how this will intersect with the Green wave.)
All this said, there is one prominent wild card in the deck. Iran's Assembly of Experts, chaired by Hashemi Rafsanjani, holds its regular (but delayed) meeting today. Will the former President use the occasion to make his challenge, supported by other members, to the current regime? Or will he maintain his cautious line of vocal support for the Supreme Leader but no direct attention to the Ahmadinejad Government? And what will be the dynamic beyond Rafsanjani?
The Latest from Iran (21 September): Distractions
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1520 GMT: EA's Mr Johnson goes over the Rafsanjani speech, adding to and correcting our earlier analysis.
While there is no open challenge to the Government, Rafsanjani's call for unity includes recognition and inclusion of those senior clerics who have offered criticisms: "A measured thoughtful approach can lead to an optimal solution for the problems....The help and support of the Marjas (Grand Ayatollahs ) for the Establishment is absolutely necessary. In the last 30 years we have never had a problem in this regard and hopefully in the future this will not happen again. Threats must stop and small problems that must not be allowed to cause rifts [between the establishment and Marjas]."
Then Rafsanjani manoeuvred behind the general chiding of Ayatollah Khamenei of conflict: "The Supreme Leader has condemned the atmosphere of defamation and confrontation that currently exists....All of us officials must pay attention to these issues so that this atmosphere does not get worse."
This led to the key passage of Rafsanjani's strategy of resolution which EA noted earlier: "Currently experienced and concerned individuals of the establishment are in the process of designing a blueprint providing a solution for the current situation....Considering that the University academic year will start soon, these efforts can be very useful, and we must reduce opaqueness from the atomosphere of society and refrain from opaque acts...so that an atmosphere for constructive criticism of society can be created....The supreme leader has emphasized the importance of the law, therefore both officials [a.k.a the Goverment and the Revolutionary Guards] and the protesters must act according to law."
And so Rafsanjani's manouevre without direct reference to the issues of detentions and abuses: "Both the officials and the protesters must not expect indifference if they break the law, since lawlessness breeds chaos in society...The supreme leader has also emphasized that the right of people to defend themselves [from accusations] must be observed [and] has prohibited broadcasting the confessions of accused individuals....If any member of the media broadcasts a confession accusing others [that broadcast] is against the law and must be prosecuted. The fact that certain members of the media [irresponsibly] publish whatever they choose is against the law and should be dealt with."
Mr Johnson also clarifies and corrects our earlier report --- it was Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi (not Mesbah Yazdi) who was absent a very well-attended session.
While there is no open challenge to the Government, Rafsanjani's call for unity includes recognition and inclusion of those senior clerics who have offered criticisms: "A measured thoughtful approach can lead to an optimal solution for the problems....The help and support of the Marjas (Grand Ayatollahs ) for the Establishment is absolutely necessary. In the last 30 years we have never had a problem in this regard and hopefully in the future this will not happen again. Threats must stop and small problems that must not be allowed to cause rifts [between the establishment and Marjas]."
Then Rafsanjani manoeuvred behind the general chiding of Ayatollah Khamenei of conflict: "The Supreme Leader has condemned the atmosphere of defamation and confrontation that currently exists....All of us officials must pay attention to these issues so that this atmosphere does not get worse."
This led to the key passage of Rafsanjani's strategy of resolution which EA noted earlier: "Currently experienced and concerned individuals of the establishment are in the process of designing a blueprint providing a solution for the current situation....Considering that the University academic year will start soon, these efforts can be very useful, and we must reduce opaqueness from the atomosphere of society and refrain from opaque acts...so that an atmosphere for constructive criticism of society can be created....The supreme leader has emphasized the importance of the law, therefore both officials [a.k.a the Goverment and the Revolutionary Guards] and the protesters must act according to law."
And so Rafsanjani's manouevre without direct reference to the issues of detentions and abuses: "Both the officials and the protesters must not expect indifference if they break the law, since lawlessness breeds chaos in society...The supreme leader has also emphasized that the right of people to defend themselves [from accusations] must be observed [and] has prohibited broadcasting the confessions of accused individuals....If any member of the media broadcasts a confession accusing others [that broadcast] is against the law and must be prosecuted. The fact that certain members of the media [irresponsibly] publish whatever they choose is against the law and should be dealt with."
Mr Johnson also clarifies and corrects our earlier report --- it was Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi (not Mesbah Yazdi) who was absent a very well-attended session.
1105 GMT: Speculation of Day. According to witness accounts, members' turnout at the Assembly of Experts meeting was the highest ever, but the Vice Chairman, Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, a fervent supporter of President Ahmadinejad, was absent.
1045 GMT: 1030 GMT: More on the Rafsanjani statement, as presented by ILNA:
As expected, it is very clever and very cautious, with interpretation left to the beholder. Rafsanjani upheld the greatness of the Iranian nation on Qods Day, as the "holy and glorious presence" of marchers make clear that the defense of rights would never be forgotten. Iranians were ever-ready to stand up to "imperialists" and their "psychological warfare" trying to reduce Iran to "passivity" ahead of negotiations. The priority for Iranians was the "unity of our country".
Nothing there to separate Rafsanjani from the Government, especially as the call could be read as defiance of the "West" in talks on Iran's nuclear question. And the former President's reference to the recent assassination of the Kurdestan member of the Assembly was a call to support the security forces and judiciary as they investigated and prosecuted such crimes.
But what of the security forces, and the Government behind them, in the post-election conflict? Ahh, there's the rub: there's no obvious reference by Rafsanjani on that key matter, leaving his audience --- whatever their position on and in the issue --- in suspense.
1030 GMT: Gary Sick offers an excellent analysis of a recent poll of Iranians regarding the election and its aftermath. EA's Chris Emery adds his own take:
I think there are some statistical anomalies with the poll and major methodological problems- there is a perception that the government routinely tap phones and this will affect people's responses to some degree. There was also a very high refusal rate amongst those called (52%).
In many ways its greatest signficance lies in how it has been read. Those, especially in the West, who cry foul on the methodology will be to some degree influenced by their refusal to accept the unpalatable truth that Ahmadinejad is undoubtedly popular amongst millions of Iranians. On the other hand, I would never use this poll as a litmus test for support within either camp. The situation is simply far more complicated and the dynamics of the current power struggles cannot be accurately drawn out from this poll.
In sum, it is more interesting to watch how it is kicked around as a political football than as a genuine indicator of the relative strength of either Ahmadinejad or the Green's position.
0945 GMT: The spin is coming in on Hashemi Rafsanjani's statement at the Assembly of Experts meeting. The Iranian Labor News Agency links a call for unity with a declaration that resolution is imminent: "Those who care about the Regime have devised a plan to get out of current situation."
0915 GMT: The "Western" media are running with "news" that President Ahmadinejad has claimed that "his country is now stronger than ever and warned that Iranian military will retaliate with full might against anyone who dares attack it".
This is not news. If Ahmadinejad had told those assembled for the military parade commemorating the 1980-1988 Iraq War that Iran was really weak and its military hopeless, that would be news. The story, however, will set up tomorrow's coverage of the UN speech: Big, Bad Ahmadinejad and the World That Must Confront Him.
Of course, it's not like Mahmoud isn't helping the portrayal: “Our armed forces will cut the hand of anyone in the world before it pulls the trigger against the Iranian nation,” Ahmadinejad said during a military parade marking the anniversary of the start of the 1980-1988 Iraq-Iran war.
0415 GMT: All very quiet in Iran in the last 24 hours, apart from some rumblings over the position of Imam Khomenei's grandson, Seyed Hassan Khomenei (see yesterday's updates). The regime will roll out a two-day setpiece ,with the presentation of detainees Saeed Hajjarian, Mohammad Atrianfar, and Saeed Shariati in a televised "roundtable" to discuss how the velvet revolution has been pursued against Iran. And Press TV has an intriguing story, given President Ahmadinejad's attempts to ensure a "proper" bureaucracy responding to his wishes, of "the first of the post-presidential-election diplomatic appointments of the Ahmadinejad government...being implemented with new ambassadors lined up for European countries".
But it appears that we are in the midst of a 72-hour diversion with President Ahmadinejad presenting himself as undisputed leader in front of the United Nations General Assembly. He will speak at about 5 p.m. New York time (2100 GMT) on Wednesday. This will get sneers and denunciations from most of the "Western" media, but mainly over his references to Israel and possibly Iran's nuclear programme. Iranian state media will hail the pride of the nation in their President on the world stage.
Opposition activists are pinning hopes on a show of protest, with Mir Hossein Mousavi's Facebook page laying out a schedule of events. At the risk of being a jaded cynic, I'm not sure there is enough attention to the Iran issue in the US now to generate a high-profile demonstration, at least on the Iranian internal issue. (There will undoubtedly be protests from pro-Israel groups, but I'm not sure how this will intersect with the Green wave.)
All this said, there is one prominent wild card in the deck. Iran's Assembly of Experts, chaired by Hashemi Rafsanjani, holds its regular (but delayed) meeting today. Will the former President use the occasion to make his challenge, supported by other members, to the current regime? Or will he maintain his cautious line of vocal support for the Supreme Leader but no direct attention to the Ahmadinejad Government? And what will be the dynamic beyond Rafsanjani?
Reader Comments (132)
There will be protests in New York, for a schedule see: www.voices4iran.org. I anticipate a larger number than those who appeared on July 25th for the United for Iran march (2000 or so). If I had to guess I'd say there might be 5,000 Green Wave supporting protestors but there will also be tons of Pro-Israel Groups.
I hope the Green message gets out. Coincidentally the empire state builidng will be green during his visit, but its actually celebrating the wizard of oz, but in my mind it will be for the mowj sabz.
Look for A Ma Dinner Jacket(ahmadinejad) to make an even more bigger jackass of himself at the UN. His whole tactic will be to dupe the world's media to focus on his Holocaust denial, hatred of Israel, and his disdain for Western culture. It will all be done to move the spotlight away from the massive domestic problems facing his own nation. The good news is the Green Wave will be turning NY green. The green scroll that draped the Eifel Tower with now drap a prominent NY bridge! Hopefully when the UN meeting kicks off you will see the majority of the free nations get up and leave his speach!
Am naturally prone to a bit of cynism myself, and even though I realize that many think 'twitter chatter' inconsequential, will not be surprised if the rally/protest turnout is substantial.
The diaspora will be there, of course, and add on those energetic young USA greens as well. Greens here and abroad have worked together to deliver more than a million petition signatures to the UN.
1) There will be a See of Green greater then many expect, and obviously A.N, the Guards and the S.L will see this as another proof of foreign powers wanting to end the Islamic Revolution.
2) I think A.N may surprise everyone and strike a diffrent tone perhaps less hostile then his average. But for his standards that probably is still nothing short of a mad man.
3) I would seriously doubt Hashemi would let this chance pass. He will not go as far as calling for the S.L head but I am almost sure he will speak out his concerns about the future of the Revolution and speak his worries and unhappyness about what is happening in the country. I would think this is needed on his side to atleast keep the pressure on the S.L and the Guards
I can confirm from what i have seen and read so far that Hashemi did infact use this platform to launch a Massive attack, he (as expected) did not go as far as attacking the S.L but did snub him time and again and by doing this reduces him from his devineness. He has very much taken the lead and this has falled well within the assembly and outside it.
THIS IS ALL EARLY HOURS SO WAIT FOR THE FINAL CONFIRMATION.
This does however fit the line of expectation, or at least my expection of today. Perhaps he might have even slightly over delivered. If the info so far is all correct it looks very much like a declaration of war to the Guards.
WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOW
I hope what I am reading is all true.. this is not a small attack this is HUGE....
"There was also a very high refusal rate amongst those called (52%)."
Wait a second. 52% is not a "high refusal rate". As the analysis below from the Washington Post makes clear the usual response rate to a phone poll is about 30%. In other words the refusal rate hovers around 70% in most political public opinion polls.
"The first deals with the response rates. A traditional live interview telephone poll has a response rate of roughly 30 percent -- meaning that three out of every ten households contacted participate in the survey." http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/parsing-the-polls/parsing-the-polls-of-auto-dial.html
Afshin, thanks. Have you seen:
http://mikverbrugge.tumblr.com/post/194100644/rough-translation-of-rafsanjanis-address-to-experts
http://www.parlemannews.ir/?n=3784
The greens and the Likudniks demonstrating together in New York? What a wonderful gift that would be to AN and his supporters. The protestors might as well wrap the gift and put a big shiny bow on it because it will be the best present AN has ever received.
As I've said before AN's popularity among Basij women continues to increase more and more every day.
'More Women in President Ahmadinejad's Cabinet
TEHRAN (FNA)- Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Monday increased the number of women in his second-term administration by assigning a woman as his aide for scientific and technological affairs.
Nasrin Soltankhah has been appointed as the vice-president for Science and Technology, the office of President Ahmadinejad announced in a statement.
Soltankhah, 46, was the head of Research and Training Institute for Management and Development." Planning.
http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=8806311082
@ Observer
Had read similar reports but had not seen this yet.
This is great. I am very excited about this. Hashemi did not dissapoint today. On the contrary, did what I expected, hoped and added a little extra's on top....
I'm sure Samuel must be gutted.
This intresting.. so what is he refering to,
- Should we expect a plan that will be presented in the coming days/ weeks ?
- Who is working on this ?
- Who will present it and when?
- Who will implement it?
- Who will they represent it to ?
- How will they make sure it is going to be implemented ?
“the ones who really care” for regime&Iran* r writing a declaration tht will show the way out this crisis as we speak.”
according to mikverbrugge's twitter: "Mesbah Yazdi was there,just not in his seat nxt 2 R.He was sitting alone at back of hall"
@ Samuel
That data seems to suggest that phone polls are by their nature unreliable indicators of anything- and, if correct, that this one is only slightly less unreliable.
You can't have it both ways
It is, however, also worth mentioning that the 70% figure is contested.
"Refusal rates for telephone interviews in the U.S. and Western Europe
typically run in the 20-40 percent range, with increases in recent decades
attributed to the proliferation of marketing and political polls, as well
as the spread of caller-identification services" (Curtin, Presser, and
Singer, Public Opinion Quarterly, 2005; Groves, Public Opinion Quarterly,
2006; Hansen, International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 2007).
It is irrelevant of weather the Israeli front hijack the AN agenda or the greens show in force that they oppose this guy. What is relevant for the west and the diaspora is to show support to the people in Iran.
We face great hardship when we go to the streets to protest. It is not cheap, it costs in every way. To see the same response across the pond from our fellow countryman, however big or small, will give us hope and will make us feel increasingly invigorated. Go to NY and protest.
Mesbah, absent?
He is in the photo before last ...
http://www.mehrnews.com/fa/newsdetail.aspx?NewsID=950898
@ whereismyvote
Why even bother with who is opposing A.N and weather they are doing it together or not.
What do you make of this sentence from Hashemi?
“the ones who really care” for regime&Iran* r writing a declaration tht will show the way out this crisis as we speak.”
There is some hope in that sentence I feel. (Also See Nore 13)
I agree that probably there is a plan being made to compromise and lead out of the current crisis, however as with previous plans presented by Rafsanjani, the Pasdaran refused them outright.
This plan probably is being made while AN is in New York and will be presented to the leader, who will as times before send it to the Pasdaran for agreement. I think either way, being accepted or rejected it is a great coupe for Rafsanjani as he has indicated that he is the sole dealmaker left that can put such plans together. As time continues, this lone fact will become more important than which side he lies on. Good for the shark..... He made himself in one sweep the only one left that can present a solution while the SL (and the final arbitrar) was pushed out of his traditional role.
P.S. I have not read the full text of the meeting details yet, so I am well behind today.
@ whereismyvote
Great analyses still at the end despite beeing well behind. Something I have mentioned a few times as well. Hashemi is doing what the S.L should have been doing. He refuses to be green openlybut fights the guards openly this way making him self the balancing factor.
Is the entire A of E meeting open to the public/media, or is part of it in closed door session? Also where are you finding Hashemi's full remarks?
edit
Oh wait-- I forgot the language part, LOL. Guess some of us have to wait
Wheresismyvote, Afshin and others -
It seems to me, reading comments above plus comments and actions Rafsanjani has made in the recent past, that while he may not be "directly" attacking the SL there is a very strong indirect attack to the SL by showing himself to be the moderator in Iran today. To quote whereismyvote, "He made himself in one sweep the only one left that can present a solution while the SL (and the final arbitrar) was pushed out of his traditional role." I am not suggesting that Rajsanjani is trying to position himself as a potential replacement to Khamanei but could this be his way of chopping at the SL's legitimacy, e.g. creating another "front" when combined with the "Qom front" is taking a path that is within the regime versus outside and perhaps has the greatest potential for causing change in the near future? Add in the continued demonstrations in the street and "popular" movements all across the country, are you have a pretty powerful storm growing. Thoughts?
Thank you.
re UN protests, for the greens, I think there will be a large diaspora turnout and a good number of American supporters. I can't guess the size, tho. Unfortunately Afshin is right about the regime using protests to bolster it's claim of foreign interference. It's part of the reason the response in the US has been mixed. It's hard for us to know if we do more harm than good in that respect. That being said, I wish I didn't live 700 miles away from NYC
Bill, I may be wrong, but I don't think UN members walk out on speakers. Feel free to correct me, tho
My guess is there may be protests in some other areas, esp with large diaspora populations, such as LA.
After a quick first read it is more sweeping than discussed here. I will work on a translation, but someone else may get it done faster (please if you are a good translator step in)
http://www.ilna.ir/newsText.aspx?ID=78504
He attacks the economic policy of mass imports
He reafirms that the leadership has asked for accusations and innuendo to be stopped
He attacks Seda and Sima (Voice and Visage) for broadcast of the trial, as the leadership has nulled these confessions, and calls for prosecution of both sides who broke the law
He talks of a problem between the clerical schools and the educated / scientists. Calls for unity and removal of these issues that exist between the government and the academic and the religious classes. Refers to the leaders satisfaction with the unity people showed on Quods day for the Palestinian people.
He reiterates how the sympathetic members of the regime are working on the text of a plan to represent for solving of problems related to current status, with focus on the leaders words and the guidance of well wishers of the system
All in all:
1) Attack on Voice and Visage
2) Attack on economic policy
3) Repeated calls for unity of the people
4) Repeated reference that using the directive and words of the leader he is creating presenting a solution
5) Attack on the trials and the broadcast of innuendo and falsehood by them (backed by the words of the leader)
6) Repeated calls that a plan is being formulated.
I think he is laying a trap for the leader. By asking for action backed by the words of the leader, and by creating a plan based on the leaders directive, any rejection of the plan will be the liability of the leader, while all the while he is a working servant of the system making solutions. He also calls Gods day glorious and victorious and repeatedly calls for the unity of the people. All showing that protests will not go away soon. Also he clearly said that blocking the clergy and the academic community by the government is an issue.
whereismyvote
Sounds like Hashemi's words may be less ambiguous than usual, tho his statements still are couched in terms that provide plenty of cover if challenged.
Very shrewd observation that Hashemi may be using SL's own words as a tool to mold policy.