Iran's New 13 Aban: "The Green Wave Has Bounced Back"

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Text: President Obama’s Statement on Iran (4 November)
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The Latest from Iran (4 November — 13 Aban): Today Is The Day

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UPDATE 1600 GMT: EA's Chris Emery has now posted a response, adding to Mr Smith's points that 13 Aban has been "a major blow to the Supreme Leader's authority".

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Mr Smith, who was one of the EA correspondents following and updating on yesterday's events, offers his analysis:

The Green Wave has bounced back. The strongly-worded threats by the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps did not deter the supporters of Mir-Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, who made it to the police-infested streets of Tehran in their tens of thousands for yet another day of demonstrations, countering the official ones organised by the Ahmadinejad-Khamenei regime.

Yesterday's events are yet again proof of the fact that the opposition has not been defeated and is not going away. Nearly five months into the Iranian post-electoral crisis, the Ahmadinejad-Khamenei camp has not quite figured out a workable plan to fulfil its intent of silencing the critics. The litany of street violence unleashed by security forces, the background of the occasional killing and raping of reformist activists, and the current warnings by the IRGC and Ayatollah Khamenei that criticism of the "legitimate government" amounted to a crime did little to cow the Green Wave supporters. Instead, the Supreme Leader found himself at the receiving end of the street chants.

Yesterday's events also effectively ended the regime's capacity to use key Islamic Republic commemorations for its benefit. The Al-Jazeera English correspondent in Tehran portrayed the Green Wave demonstrations as a "hijacking" of the 13 Aban traditional marches. This interpretation is highly debatable, given that the perpetrators of the assault on the US embassy 30 years ago are now regime enemies, either languishing in jail, such as Mohsen Mirdamadi, or hovering in silence, such as the noted political analyst Abbas Abdi.

Another key outcome from yesterday's protests is the remarkable capacity of the rank-and-file to organise major events "from below", without needing or waiting for the go-ahead from its leadership. In fact, Mousavi and Karroubi are now effectively running after their own supporters and offering fatherly advice to them, rather than acting as beacons for the start of direct action.

And do not underestimate the damage of yesterday to the slight legitimacy that the current Government possesses. The amateur footage of young unarmed women being beaten up by riot police and the widespread accounts of violence meted out by security forces will do little to back up the official claim that a small group of "troublemakers" were dealt with humanely by the police. The new round of arrests against student activists and journalists effectively wipes out the scant concessions offered by the release on bail of eminent reformist personalities such as the newspaper editor Mohammad Ghoochani and the noted journalist Hengameh Shahidi. [Editor's note: That concession is very limited, given that Shahidi appeared yesterday in Revolutionary Court to face charges.]

However, not everything is rosy for the reformists. The heavy "security atmosphere", the Iranian euphemism for the massive presence of police forces on the streets, is having its effects. The number of participants to the 13 Aban demonstrations was considerably lower, by all accounts, than that of the Qods Day marches of 18 September. Many potential participants await news of police deployment before setting out in the streets.
And the leadership is bearing the brunt of its followers' enthusiasm and relative success. While Karroubi is staunchly appearing in public events, only to be confronted violently by the security forces, Mousavi is effectively in virtual house arrest, prevented from joining crowds of any size. Former President Mohammad Khatami is even more detached, while Hashemi Rafsanjani has gone back to his behind-the-scenes scheming.

More than ever, the Green movement now needs a clear-cut, cogent, middle- to long-term political strategy that will harness the strong popular resentment against Ahmadinejad to plans for the fall of the present government and the establishment of an alternative one, be that in the guise of a "National Unity" coalition or another form. There are reasons to believe that this possiblity is not far-fetched. Political enmity between Ahmadinejad and his conservative opponents is on the rise once again. The Brothers Larijani have contrived to block or delay any possible nuclear deal between the government and the International Atomice Energy Agency, for fear of the credit it would bring to Ahmadinejad. The subsidy plan proposed by the President has unravelled after a public quarrel between the president and Ali Larijani, the Speaker of the Majlis.

A deal between Mousavi, Karroubi, and the Larijanis is still distant on the horizon. However, the two reformist leaders must attempt to turn the sizeable following they command into political capital. Up to that point, the Green movement will resemble the "creative chaos" that has often appeared in recent Iranian political history but has only occasionally succeeded in attaining its long-term goals. A nervous and vicious stalemate hangs right now over the political skyline of Tehran, with the shadows of the Islamic Republic's most enduring political crisis becoming deeper than ever.

Comments

[whereismyvote]

I like to point a few things out to Mr. Smith:
Although he points out to the weaknesses of the reform movement, I would like to also point out the framework that this weakness becomes a strength.

Reformers are getting ahead of their leadership, and great for the Iranian nation. The reform leaders, when and where they assume the mantel of power will be servants to the people. Something we should have to create a vibrant democracy. If it means that the reforms will take 12 months instead of 8 months to topple the AN government, I will live with that, for the sake of the foundations of our new government being more solid

Reform leadership has a pattern of behavior.
This has been the case since the day one, and it is almost a reflection of the personalities of the reform leaders, more than anything. To expect an animal to behave other than their nature dictates. Khatami has always been a sheep and will always remain one. The shark is a backdoor wealer and dealer, and the Kurd, is got big big balls and head of the donkey. The Grey beards man has to express himself through oppression. What you should realize is that with the Marjah in Qome, the leaders above in Tehran and so many players, not having one front charismatic leader means that there is no single target to take out. But taking out any of the network of leaders will create instantly that charismatic martyr. This is why no one is yet arrested. In the collective weakness of all lies their strength.
The green movement has had an agenda;
Force the leadership to compromise, it has not been achieved, and this is the strength of the movement again, for every time compromise is not reached, between the green movement and the government, the viability of the Islamic portion of the republic gets weaker. I rather see the downfall of all mullahs, and see the beloved streets of Tehran decorated with mullahs hung with their turbans as Rome was with the crucifixions of Spartacus army, but I know that dream will not come true, so I will be satisfied with the current goals of the green wave. Every time the SL / AN alliance refuses to compromise, my dream becomes more vivid and closer to reality.
Also I like to point out how it is impossible to have a clear plan when dealing in such crisis mode. The plan is just that. Keep the state of crisis going to such level, that the government and the leadership stumbles from one crisis moment to the next, mixing and cross associating each crisis to the other, making the government parallized and slowly and surely erroding their ability to manage and deal with them. This is a defeat from a 1000 cuts strategy.

The political unity plan was tried already. What was evident is that it was considered, but thought to be not necessary yet. The protests like yesterday is what it will take to force the reconsideration of them and potential adoption. Taxing and paining the regime is what it will take to force them to negotiate with the greens, and they will only do that when their deimise and defeat seems cetrain.

Yes we do agree that we are in a stalemate, but we have time to burn galore in the green movement. We can come out once a month and keep this crisis fueled. Can the government come out once a month with huge military and police force to crush us? Can they keep this dance of arrest and release going? How long can they torture, us in prison before the torturer breaks down? I am confident that the stalemate is a victory for the greens and a defeat for the government / leadership.

P.S. Internet was a problem for me, and thanks for all your concerns. I am alive and well. My keyboard is clicking. I appreciate the concern

[Pedestrian]

"Can the government come out once a month with huge military and police force to crush us? Can they keep this dance of arrest and release going? How long can they torture, us in prison before the torturer breaks down?"

WhereIsMyVote, I think the answer to that is: "yes they can!" :(
They can always terrorize more than they have and to arrest more than they have and to frighten protesters out of existence - or at least try.
I really think we need some new strategies. I offer my 2cents for "what now":
http://www.sidewalklyrics.com/?p=2127

I would love to hear your suggestions.

[whereismyvote]

@ Pedestrian

Any thing is possible, but what you have to realize is that the government increasingly has to be weary of its own security apparatus and goons. As we did to the Basiji's to force the Pasdaran to take over control of Basiji forces, the police and the rank and file are going to be unhappy to come out beating people. True initially they were happy with the over paid bonus, but increasingly they have to go back home and live in the neighborhood amongst people that they beat yesterday. Increasingly they have to answer back to their wives, kids and family members who have been negatively affected, and increasingly their will to torture and be tyrants is weakened. The average police force, security person did not sign up to beat Iranian women in streets so that Mr. Khamanei and the Pasdaran can cling to power. He will carry out his orders, but he is increasingly questioning and weary of them, and he is too soon going to reject them.

They may continue to play with valve of torture and arrest, but we are willing to fill up all prisons with our rank and file. When you have 1 million people attempting to suppress 70 million, you have to understand that the numbers gives us strength. The government by my calculation can not arrest / brutalize more than 50000 at any one time. If we have a single incident where major numbers are killed or arrested it is game over for this strategy.

If you have ever held power via fear and force, you would understand what I mean. To use it is equivalent to lose it. If you use excessive force to crush the opponent and can not put him into submission, you have instantly lost.

We will go out once a month, or once every six weeks. We have nothing else to do, and it is now a routine for us and even fun. How long can they govern through a crisis that is increasingly becoming cultural, social, economical and a fight defined by lines of good and evil? How long can they continue before they are morally bankrupt?

And if that fails, we have civil disobidiance and civil unrest, followed by strike and economical collapse.

[Adam]

I'm not sure why a national strike wasn't called as soon as the torture, rapes, and killings started. Maybe there has been a backroom deal made, but in that case why have the public beatings continued? Khamenei, if he made a deal, has broken it.

[Is the regime planning to assa]

[...] no longer settle for that. --TWO FASCINATING STUDIES OF WHERE IRAN SEEMS HEADED AFTER NOV. 4TH Iran’s New 13 Aban: “The Green Wave Has Bounced Back” | Enduring America Both come sources inside Iran. The first is from "Mr. Smith" a regular source for Scott [...]

[whereismyvote]

@ everyone that thinks yesterday was a dud,

Unfortunately we have to as Iranians accept that this fight will be messy and dirty. It would not be a velvet revolution, but rather a long bloody struggle. Street protests are in my opinion a critical component of the battle, and I feel they have to get far worst and dirty. When street protests in Tehran are come to a complete hault we can take over the country side, travel to provinces and small towns and then switch back and forth. We can not allow a few baton blows to dissolve our resolve. As Mousavi said we shall stand until the end, for we have nowhere to go. It was a successful day, let us not kid ourselves. We wanted the sky to fall, but it did not. The only failure of the day was our high expectations. Lets adjust those and be resolved to go back out. Nothing in life is easy. I hate us Iranians for I fear we are lazy and complain too much. In the west people work hard, they play hard and we Iranians we are lazy and want everything yesterday. If we want freedom, we have to remember that its fountain needs blood. We have to be willing to sacrifice. If we think we are a nation of Shahid Parvar, then we have to go out and break their batons with our skulls. To soften in our resolve is to admit defeat. We can change tactics, but we have to remain with the strategy to march on. Each protest is token for the green movement and its leaders. Each protest is a sleepless night for Khamanei and if I can negatively affect his health with protests, I will and I shall.

Yesterday was not worst than in front of Baharestan, was it? It was tough, but we can keep going out, be it Azar, Dey Bahman or Esfand. As it gets colder, its easier for us, cause the gas won't burn as harsh and we can dress thick and take more direct hits...

[Bijan]

@WIMV -

As always I am humbled by your resolve, dedication and bravery and that of those who once again took to the streets. If I was in Iran I would be right there with you but as I am not rest asured you and all others are constantly in my thoughts and prayers.

[picard]

Adam raises the interesting question.... one I've been hearing ever since June, among those watching for 1978 parallels.... Where are the strikes we heard were coming? Or is Iran's economy now more decentralized? Or are its key industries more closely monitored and politicized.?

[whereismyvote]

@ Picard
You have a good and valid point. There is always more than one way to skin a cat.. Although in 1978 strikes came in October and were well entrenched by December, there is no reason to follow the same pattern of behavior. Yes the strikes came then, but we are now well organized in the university and the protest is finding its way from University to high schools.

The Iranian economy is divided into small to medium sized private firms and government / bonyad / Pasdaran run firms. If and when the strikes come they have to be after the divisions in Pasdaran is substantial. The roots of strike action is being sewn, but it will take time for it to take effect. On the 13 Aban the country was in effective strike. No work was done, no one opened shop for long and you can say business was down across the whole country.
The Bazar accounts for a far lesser % of trade in Iranian economy and the government a far larger %. Strikes will not be easy to assemble this time, but we will after the students are 100% on board, and after the pasdaran forces better weakened by the opinion of the people.
During the last revolution of 1978 the events happened in Tehran, and its flames fanned to the provinces, however this time around you can truly say that the provinces are tighter and closer to the events in Tehran. They are protests in a far larger number of towns, provinces and cities than in 1978. If the plan for civil strikes is behind schedule, it is only cause the facts are different. Don't be too hard on the Iranian folks. Their pockets is empty so they can't swallow the strike ticket yet, but they shall and they will soon enough and by January I promise you we shall even have some strikes started. I know now that next year this time we are talking about the imminent collapse of the regime, and not when, how or whether its possible or not? It is now clear to me that this is a done deal.... Unless Mr. Khamanei does what he knows how not to, which is compromise and leave the scene almost completely, the regime is done.