The Latest from Iran (24 November): A Larijani-Rafsanjani Alliance?

1910 GMT: Prosecuting Journalists. Reporters without Borders has published a summary of latest news on journalists who have been convicted and arrested (and even one who was released).

1900 GMT: Some Good News for Mahmoud. President Ahmadinejad and his Brazilian counterpart, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, signed 13 cooperation agreements on trade, energy, stocks and banking, agriculture, news agenices, technology, culture, and visa requirements.

1735 GMT: Mortazavi Mystery Over? After days of rumours that he was in Evin Prison, former Tehran Prosecutor General Saeed Mortazavi has appeared at the memorial service for Ali Kordan, the former Minister of Interior who died this weekend.

1725 GMT: Isolating Rafsanjani? Division of opinion here amongst EA staff: one colleague is saying Hashemi Rafsanjani is a spent force while another is arguing strongly that "the Shark" is far from finished and about to make another move.

If the latter, those in the regime opposed to Rafsanjani (and possibly worried about the possibility of his working in combination with Ali Larijani) will try to block it. Having dismissed him from the rota for Friday Prayers in Tehran and the Qods Day Prayer, authorities are now taking away the Eid al-Adha Prayer from Rafsanjani and giving it to Ahmad Khatami.

NEW Latest Iran Video: Protest at Qazvin University (23 November)
NEW Iran: Maziar Bahari Tells CBS of His Detention and Post-Election Conflict
NEW Iran: While the President’s Away…..The Contest Inside Tehran’s Establishment
Iran: Economics, Missing Money, and Ahmadinejad v. Parliament
Latest Iran Video: Protest at Khaje Nasir University (22 November)
Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Yemen: An Introduction to Conflict
Iran Revelation: Pro-Government MP Admits Election Was Manipulated

1715 GMT: Back from teaching break to find that Mousavi activist Majid Zamani has been released on bail.

1335 GMT: Your Daily University Demonstration. Video is now in of Monday's protest at Qazvin University; we've posted it in a separate entry.

1320 GMT: Atrianfar Sentenced. A reliable Iranian activist reports that journalist Mohammad Atrianfar's sentence, passed this weekend, was six years in jail and that he --- like former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi and student organisation leader Ahmad Zeidabadi --- has been released on bail while the sentence is appealed.

The same source claims that student activist Atafeh Nabavi has been sentenced to four years.

1230 GMT: A Persian-language site has published the names of more than 70 students who have been detained recently by the regime.

1100 GMT: Mr Smith Gets It Right. Back from a research seminar on Chomsky to find that Iran's Foreign Ministry has opened the door a bit on the talks on uranium enrichment:

Iran is not opposed to sending its low-enriched uranium (LEU) abroad but wants 100 percent guarantees of receiving higher-enriched fuel in return for a medical research reactor...."Nobody in Iran ever said that we are against sending 3.5 percent-enriched uranium abroad," Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast said. "If we say we are looking for 100 percent guaranteees, it means that we want 3.5 percent enriched uranium to be sent out under such circumstances that we make sure that we will receive the 20 percent fuel."

That statement seems to bear out the analysis from EA's Mr Smith, offered last week: "[Iran's proposed] arrangement would allay Iranian fears that its uranium supply might be held indefinitely by some foreign party, including Russia."

0840 GMT: Today's Bang the War Drum Moment. The Guardian of London reaches far this morning in its presentation of all shades of opinion. Benny Morris, once a good historian and now a loud polemicist, wrings his hands over an Israeli military attack on Iran: "Obama will soon have to decide whether to give Israel a green light, and how brightly it will shine."

I think Morris would like the missiles to fly but he's passed the buck to the US President because of...

...the likely devastating repercussions –-- regional and global. These will probably include massive rocketing of Israel's cities and military bases by the Iranians and Hezbollah (from Lebanon), and possibly by Hamas (from Gaza). This could trigger land wars in Lebanon and Gaza as well as a protracted long-range war with Iran. It could see terrorism by Iranian agents against Israeli (and Jewish) targets around the world; a steep increase in world oil prices, which will rebound politically against Israel; and Iranian action against American targets in Iraq, Afghanistan and the Gulf. More generally, Islamist terrorism against western targets could only grow.

0830 GMT: As for Dissent.... In this morning's New York Times, Robert Worth picks up on several developments in recent weeks to summarise the regime's efforts to defeat the opposition:

Stung by the force and persistence of the protests, the government appears to be starting a far more ambitious effort to discredit its opponents and re-educate Iran’s mostly young and restive population. In recent weeks, the government has announced a variety of new ideological offensives.

It is implanting 6,000 Basij militia centers in elementary schools across Iran to promote the ideals of the Islamic Revolution, and it has created a new police unit to sweep the Internet for dissident voices. A company affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards acquired a majority share in the nation’s telecommunications monopoly this year, giving the Guards de facto control of Iran’s land lines, Internet providers and two cellphone companies. And in the spring, the Revolutionary Guards plan to open a news agency with print, photo and television elements.

The government calls it “soft war,” and Iran’s leaders often seem to take it more seriously than a real military confrontation.

0815 GMT: Rooz Online are pressing the idea of co-operation between Ali Larijani and Hashemi Rafsanjani against the President. An analysis has highlighted Larijani's defense of Rafsanjani as a "pillar of the revolution" and, as we have in a separate entry, contrasted this with a view of Ali Reza Zakani's speech on the election and the National Unity Plan as an attack on Larijani.

0730 GMT: The US View of the Green Movement. Over the last two weeks, we have had intense debate over Washington's perception, inside and outside the US Government, of the Iranian opposition. Amongst this was a discussion of how the American elites might view filmmaker Mohsen Makhmalbaf, with his recent talk at the Carnegie Endowment, as the spokesman for the Green Wave.

Interesting then to see Robin Wright, one of the top US-based journalists on Iran and the Middle East, highlight Makhmalbaf's speech and declare, with one quick qualification, "Iran's Green Movement Reaches Out to U.S."

0720 GMT: Nuclear Rhetoric or a Powerful Signal? Fars News' English-language site is putting a clear message on top of Deputy Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mohammadi's comments on Sunday: "Leader Has Final Say on Iran-US Talks". Mohammadi said in a roundtable at Tehran's Amir Kabir University:

The negotiation with the US is not possible without the permission by Imam and the Leader, and any kind of talks with the US must be permitted by the Supreme Leader. No Iranian President or Foreign Minister has had or will have the permission to act on establishment of relations with the US.

So is Mohammadi's declaration just the formal reiteration that Ayatollah Khamenei is atop the Iranian system? Is it a reassurance that any show of engagement with the US and Iranian proposals have the backing of the Supreme Leader? Or is this a message to Ahmadinejad and pro-deal allies to step away from the discussions?

0710 GMT: The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps has stepped up its line of US and Pakistani support of the Baluch insurgent group Jundallah, including last month's deadly suicide bombing in Baluchistan.

Addressing IRGC commanders in Isfahan, Brigadier General Gholam-Reza Soleimani said the US Central Intelligence Agency has been spending millions of dollars in its campaign against the Islamic Republic: "The CIA makes a contribution of more than one billion dollar each year to Pakistan's intelligence agency (Inter-Service Intelligence) as part of a campaign to eliminate individuals with anti-U.S. mentalities." He added that there was evidence of ISI and US involvement in many terrorist incidents in Iran, including the October bombing that claimed several IRGC commanders amongst more than 40 dead: "There exists documented evidence of links between (Abdolmalek) Rigi's terrorist group (Jundallah) and the CIA."

Comments

[Doug]

Some of the literature for the young in many of the schools still contains some charming fairy tales and nursery rhymes I've heard. There are things to be learned in the mild stories for children. Often it is the adults whose hearts and minds must be softened by ancient tales of yore.
     On this theme of Story telling and leadership, there have been persistent rumors coming to me from my usual source that the filmmaker Mohsen Makhmalbaf is about to launch a new series of fantasy movies tentatively called "Iranian Faux Pas Tales", and that he is recruiting obscure clerics to be in this latest movie. All of this must be taken with a grain of salt. At the moment, it would appear that there is a high likelihood that it is a totally false rumor. It is said that his talent scouts are on a search for the infamous "Mullah Nasrudin". But I have once again gotten a communication from the mysterious Mullah of legend.

I have heard that due to a fortuitous event, http://wp.me/oSaJ" rel="nofollow">Mullah Nasrudin has nominated someone to be promoted to Grand Ayatollah. His letter is to be sent to Qom by special courier. He spoke in confidence to his wife of his plan, but she has now given permission to release a somewhat cryptic summary of events:
     Recently, it is reported, Mullah Nasrudin had seemed excited, but had said very slowly to his wife, "Finally I've made it home safely and I am alive... and now I have a thirst..."
     The Mullah's wife, endeavoring to please him, interrupted him quickly. "Um, uh, oh yes: I am your soda, rose petals and mint. Add your yogurt to my virgin milk and I will do the dance of the veils."
     "No, not that. I was going to say that I now have a great 'thirst for life' because I nearly died today."
     "Again?" she muttered, but realizing she was speaking out loud, quickly said, "Oh dear. Tell me of today's saga."
     "I was riding my donkey towards the edge of a cliff, but I didn't know there were any cliffs anywhere, and would have blissfully ridden to my death, had it not been for my hero who I'm recommending to be promoted to Grand Ayatollah."
     "What qualifications does he have?"
     "Well, he speaks with a sticky tongue and catches insects."
     The Mullah's wife was puzzled. She presented a gentle interrogation: "I don't understand -- you had better explain how he saved your life."
     "As I was riding towards my doom, a frog suddenly croaked loudly and startled the donkey. It rose up on its hind legs and threw me to the ground. Thus we avoided the cliff. As a good deed was done, I must reward the frog."
     "Wait. What? You are going to ask that a frog be made a Grand Ayatollah?"
     "Yes, of course. Are there not many insects that buzz around the people?"
     "But..."
     "...and should not a noble tongue be sticky enough to remove the venomous words from the swamps of evil..."
     "But we don't have any swamps nearby."
     "And I don't suppose you believe there are any cliffs to be avoided?"
     "Well, dear, I'm afraid I don't understand, but if you must, write your letter as you always do and I will pray."
     "Don't worry. I'll be careful. But now, with all this talk I am dry but I must say I have a thirst..."
     "Yes, I know dear, you have a 'thirst for life' . "
     "No not that."

[Catherine]

RE Reuters article in 11:00 GMT
There we read : "Nobody in Iran ever said that we are against sending 3.5 percent-enriched uranium abroad," Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast said."

Oh? What about yesterday?
(AFP) Iran insists it will not ship uranium stocks abroad
"No fuel is supposed to leave Iran," the Mehr news agency quoted the deputy secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Ali Bagheri, as saying.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20091123/wl_mideast_afp/irannuclearpolitics_20091123215501/print

I wonder what they'll be saying next :-)

[Scott Lucas]

Catherine,

And then add in the Deputy Foreign Minister's comments that Khamenei has final say (noted in the updates). If I was to put it crudely, the tension now cuts through not only the Government but individual departments. Ahmadinejad-Mottaki pushing for a deal while others in Parliament and Supreme Leader's office may be putting limits on it or trying to sabotage.

Note also that almost nothing has been heard from Saeed Jalili, as secretary of Supreme National Security Council. Is he on-side with Bagheri's statement?

S.

[Catherine]

You tell me.
These statements by Jalili are in an article with today's date that just appeared on Iran Review:
Iran needs to receive concrete guarantees for supplying nuclear fuel for its research reactor in Tehran... If necessary guarantees were not given to Iran, the country would have other options,” ...if some countries failed to timely provide necessary fuel for Iran’s research reactor based on Iran’s will, then “this will add to the Iranians' distrust in them.” .... “Providing nuclear fuel for Tehran’s research reactor is not a political issue and has nothing to do with Iran’s talks with the group 5+1 member states,” ... providing the fuel “is only a business matter and not even a technical or legal issue.”.... and more at http://www.iranreview.org/content/view/5082/1/

[ange paris]

A previously unreleased tape recording, belonging to the commander of the security force of the regime, Ahmadreza Radan , giving his instrutions during the crackdown of 20 of june :

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ninABdocknc

[ange paris]

Once Makhmalbaf has spoken up for green mouvement and look at the outcome !! every day we have to have this kind of statement, 3 or 4 a day, to all the media in the world ; Makhmalbaf and others who are famous and knows important people, go on ..... it's not finished yet ; and good luck !!
Pedestrian, please give them my message !

[Scott Lucas]

Catherine,

Thank you so much. Just back from teaching and need to catch up. Immediate read --- Jalili's statement is not out of line with Mottaki. Notice the emphasis on "guarantees" rather than "swap" v. enrichment in another country.

S.

[Megan]

Re 19:17 GMT:

Visa? Why do I have this funny feeling the Visa matter is for him and some of his loyal disciples when Iran will not be safe for him anymore. He knows the day of reckoning is near and he knows he will not be welcomed in Europe or North America or even many Asian Nations. I am sure his plan A calls for Venezuela. He needed a plan B and Brazil fits the bill. Brazil is far enough and big enough to elude capture. He should consider Amazon he fits right in.

[Megan]

Scott, Catherin,

I am not sure why we are consumed and analyze every word (official or unofficial) by every member of this dysfunctional government. You see there is an order to IRI disorder. The objective is to create enough smoke that we go into high gear and start reading tea leaves from now to eternity. Finally we get tired. We either lose interest or give in and IRI wins.

The nuclear issue is not complicated. It really is not. The truth is IRI has rejected the Geneva and Vienna agreement. IRI has put forward its own proposal (counterproposal) and that is IRI must first receive the 20% enriched Uranium. Once IRI has received the 20% E Ur it will ship or hand-over the equivalent amount of 3.5% enriched Uranium. This part of IRI proposal is crystal clear. The second part of IRI proposal is that it does not want to give the appearance of doing business with 5+1 in part for lack of trust and for the most part it does not look good for domestic consumption. IRI and AN, therefore, had to find another business partner for the deal. They chose Turkey, a Muslim nation and NATO member. The condition for Turkey to get the deal was Turkey had to show loud disregard for Israel. Turkey obliged because the financial and political reward was substantial. IRI brought Mohammad ElBaradei on board with the idea of doing business with Turkey (I would like to know for how much carrot!).

The ball is now in 5+1 court. IRI would not mind if 5+1 takes its time in reviewing the proposal. If the 5+1 agrees with IRI proposal, IRI can claim victory plus it can break the deal for the smallest infraction by Turkey in the future (like not killing enough Kurds). If 5+1 does not go along with IRI counter proposal, IRI can still claim victory by playing victim (the tool they have used for thirty years in every darned Friday prayer charade).

IRI wants us to take our focus from the real crisis in Iran and has succeeded by having its brain-dead mouthpieces putting out half-baked comments on daily basis and we eat them like candies. If bloggers and News Media outlets put IRI no news nuke matter on mute, IRI will go silent.

[Anahita]

Megan,

I agree, there is no point in analysing every single bit of crap that comes out of their mouths, most of it is only crap.

I don't even know why the west has bothered to continue discussions with the IRI given the circumstances, they cannot be honest with their own people why would they be honest with the west? My eyes glaze over everytime I read anything on the nuclear subject now.

[Barry]

After the recent military defense drill supposedly meant to counter Israeli air attacks, this website http://www.iran-resist.org/article5716.html has published photos also supposedly taken during the drills (photos from Fars and Mehr)

Surely it can't be true!!!!

Barry

[ange paris]

Barry
I know them ; they are against the iranian gvrt but they are so radical and tell or write nonsense and generally rubbish !! I couldn't bear the fanatism in the both sides !! for exemple they say : that the green mouvement is a part of the plan of the gvrt , and all this turmoil since june is a game of the regime and each person in the opposition is an actor playing "for" the gvrt !! I don't know if these pictures are the true ones but I think the other countries are able to see, thanks to satellites, if the iranian equipements are shubby or not !!

[Catherine]

@ Ange de Paris

I finally read the Robin Wright article Scott referred to yesterday (http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1942091,00.html),
and according to the author Makhmalbaf said he was on a mission from the opposition to Washington DC when he spoke at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: "The award-winning filmmaker, who now lives in Europe, said he was sent to Washington by the opposition..." .

So I guess that confirms he *is* an official representative of at least some wing of "the oppostion".

[ange paris]

Catherine
He was always speaking on behalf of green mouvement and especially , Moussavi; once he cried, during a demonstration, "Moussavi is the president" (in Paris à la bastille ) and two or three persons were very angry , belonging to the left wing of the opposition ( mojahedin khalg) ! What he does is good; each "mouth" has to become a spokesperson of the green mouvement in different levels of the society !! Because AN and fellows are so strong in their systeme of communication and especially to circulate always the false news !! showing they are so strong and the oppostion so useless .

[pessimist]

@ange paris
You're right, that iran-resist guy seems totally bonkers, paranoid, he thinks photos of green mov are photoshopped, the doctor in that prison a sort of 'plant' or invention (because he was wearing a tie etc).

Maybe some of his info is right, but how to sort it out ?