Iran Today: Supreme Leader Losing Control of the Presidential Election?

See also EA's Guide To Iran's June 2013 Presidential Election
Iran Analysis: Presidential Election --- Rafsanjani and Khatami Put Supreme Leader in a Corner
Tuesday's Iran Today: The Presidential Campaign Formally Opens

---

Presidential Election Watch: Assessing Rafsanjani's Candidacy

A cryptic message on President Rafsanjani's website today: "Do not say no to the good prayers (wishes) of the people!"

Click to read more ...

Iran Analysis: Presidential Election --- Rafsanjani and Khatami Put Supreme Leader in a Corner

Hashemi Rafsanjani & Mohammad KhatamiEither Ayatollah Khamenei accepts former President Hashemi Rafsanjani's candidacy, which will shake up an already unsettled process and possibly put it beyond the Supreme Leader's control...

...or the Supreme Leader black-balls Rafsanjani, likely incurring blame for blocking one of Iran's highest-profile politicians.

As an EA correspondent summarised, "The Supreme Leader is between a rock and a hard place."

Click to read more ...

Syria Today: US and Russia Propose New Political Talks

1614 GMT: Al Nusra Behind "Chemical Weapons" Attacks?

There are two developments in the case of the alleged chemical weapons attack in Saraqib. Over the last several days, arms experts we've worked with have become aware that some of the devices found at the site of two chemical weapons sites resemble Indian riot control devices. NBC's Richard Engel reports:

Visit NBCNews.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

The device in question, analyzed by EA here, appears to resemble a riot-controlled device developed by an Indian company, "Tear Smoke Unit." We contacted TSU before the Richard Engel report, but have yet to hear back.

Click to read more ...

Iran Breaking: Khatami "Happy" for Rafsanjani to Join Presidential Race

Hashemi RafsanjaniFormer President Mohammad Khatami told journalists on Tuesday that former President Hashemi Rafsanjani is "probably" running in the June presidential election. Khatami said he would be happy for Rafsanjani to run, if the Supreme Leader agreed, and that if he did so it would be a "victory for everyone".

According to comments posted on Khatami's website, the former President said: "I was pleased yesterday when Mr. Hashemi said he was prepared to run, if the Supreme Leader does not oppose it. It's correct that if the Supreme Leader does not want someone to run, that would cause a problem, and I say why would the Supreme Leader oppose it?"

Calling on all people to participate in the elections, Khatami praised Rafsanjani and added that he would be pleased if he ran in the elections: "I am sure he is an excellent manager for the country."

Middle East Today: Libya --- Minister of Defense Quits

Troops Protecting Government Buildings in LibyaEgypt: Cabinet Reshuffle

Prime Minister Hisham Qandil has said 11 new ministers will be announced in a Cabinet reshuffle today.

The ministries affected include oil, higher education, and agriculture. A replacement will also be named for the Minister of Justice, Ahmed Mekky, who has resigned.

Libya: Minister of Defense Quits Over Gunmen's Siege

Minister of DefenseMohammed al-Bargathi has resigned after last week's siege by gunmen of Government ministries.

The armed group was calling for the exclusion from official positions of those involved with the Qaddafi regime, which was toppled in October 2011.

Click to read more ...

Iran Today: The Presidential Campaign Formally Opens

Economy Watch: Private Parliament-Government Meeting on Inflation

Tabnak reports that MPs and Government officials have had a private meeting today, discussing how to control the price of some necessary goods.

Rafsanjani Watch: Pro-Ahmadinejad MP Blasts Former President

MP Ruhollah Hosseinian, a long-time supporter of President Ahmadinejad, announced that up to 90 legislators have written to former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, asked him to explain a speech last week which criticised the Government and put forward a number of foreign policy statements.

In the address to clerics, scholars, and students, Rafsanjani, "We are not in war with Israel." He also indicated that he might be ready to run in June's Presidential election.

Hussainian said he is trying to get more MPs to sign the letter. He asserted, "If Rafsanjani wants to participate in the election, he should explain these statements first."

Click to read more ...

Syria Today: Remembering a Mass Killing

2040 GMT: The Internet is Down.

Another watchdog, Umbrella Security Labs, reports:

At around 18:45 UTC OpenDNS resolvers saw a significant drop in traffic from Syria. On closer inspection it seems Syria has largely disappeared from the Internet.

Brown Moses has checked Google, and this is the result:

However, the opposition still has plenty of ways to communicate. Satellite phones and other, more secret, methods have been established since the earliest days of the revolution. This blackout will have a significant impact on information coming out of Syria, but it's not a total blackout.

Click to read more ...

Syria Today: Damascus Warns Israel of "All Possibilities"

2016 GMT: Massacre in Baniyas.

Though it was lost in the news of a massive Israeli airstrike in the capital, and lots of buzz about chemical weapons, this weekend there was a disturbing development on the coast of Syria, in Baniyas. The area is primarily populated by Alawites, however several some villages have a primarily Sunni population, and it appears that it is the Sunni villages that have been attacked. Perhaps more than 100 people have been killed in several villages. An activist has posted this summary, excerpted below, which has links to four graphic videos, though EA has not yet been able to verify the report:

The campaign of shelling and massacres in Banias and its villages stopped today; however, the fear of massacres still continues among the people. Security forces opened the road today to the neighborhood of Ras Al-Naba' and Batraya. The smell of the corpses of the martyrs has spread throughout the city. The Red Crescent accompanied some of the people to remove the bodies, which led to the discovery of more bodies of martyrs, who were field-executed and slaughtered with knives (especially children). There is a huge number of martyrs who have not yet been documented. Regime forces dug up a large hole on the outskirts of the city as a mass grave for the martyrs of Ras Al-Naba'.

The neighborhood of Ras Al-Naba'a and the village of Bayda are declared a disaster-zone and not suitable for further life whatsoever, after witnessing a campaign of ethnic cleansing of the Sunnis on the coast by Assad forces.

Click to read more ...

Syria Audio Analysis: The Significance of the Israeli Airstrikes --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24

I spoke this morning, along with correspondent Daniella Peled, on Monocle 24's The Globalist about the details and consequences of Israel's airstrikes inside Syria this weekend.

Listen from 7:09 mark --- with my contribution from 10:20 --- on The Globalist's homepage or in separate pop-out window

Take-away points:

1. A lot of the supposed information on the airstrikes --- such as Israel targeting weapons like Iranian-made Fateh 110 missiles or Israel acting without notifying the US --- is misleading or incorrect;

1. "Everyone --- the regime, the insurgency, regime supporters like Iran, opposition supporters like the US, Turkey, and Arab States --- has to re-calculate strategy in light of these attacks";

3. "But fundamentally, this does not change the calculus: is Assad going to help firm or step down? Are the opposition and insurgency going to be able to unify to help build internationa support?"

4. "The Israelis are trying to degrade Assad's military capabilities, which just happens to help the insurgents if they decide to make a push on Damascus."

I also talk about Sunday's curious report that a United Nations investigator has claimed "suspicions" of insurgent use of the nerve agent sarin.

Middle East Today: Bahrain --- Cabinet Approves Bill to Stop US "Interference"

US Ambassador to Bahrain KrajeskiKuwait: 4 Sentenced to Life for Spying for Iran

The Supreme Court has upheld life terms on two Iranians, a Kuwaiti. and a stateless person on charges of forming a ring to spy for Tehran.

The court, whose rulings are final, upheld the acquittal of two Iranians, including the only woman among the defendants, and a Syrian.

In May last year, the appeals court reduced death sentences against three defendants to life and upheld the same term on the fourth.

The two Iranians and the Kuwaiti worked for the Kuwait's army at the time of their arrest in May 2010, while the stateless person was a former soldier.

The defendants were accused of passing information on the Kuwaiti and US military in the Gulf emirate to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and planning to blow up key oil pipelines.

The defendants denied the charges and insisted they had been tortured to extract confessions.

Click to read more ...