Syria Today: The Debate Over Chemical Weapons

2210 GMT: Major Policy Shift Signaled By the US? Many analysts are writing about military intervention in Syria. Some are opposed, some are in favor, many are still on the fence. One article in particular was promoted heavily on Twitter: The Case for Intervening in Syria, published by The Atlantic. What caught our eye, however, is that one of the Twitter accounts pushing the report belongs to the US State Deptartment’s Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization Operations:

A piece from @theatlantic on the case for intervening in #Syria. Please take a look through it here: ow.ly/kqGtR

— StateCSO (@StateCSO) April 26, 2013

2148 GMT: Rebels Redress Assad Advance in Damascus. At the start of my day, there was news that the Syrian regime was stacking tanks on the outskirts of Jobar, the east-central district of Damascus that is the front lines of the fight for the capital in the east. The area was being heavily shelled and bombed by artillery, rockets, and aircraft, softening up the area for the ground assault.

It's unclear whether the offensive was ultimately successful, but it does not appear that is was. Furthermore, the rebels appear to have inflicted heavy losses on the regime, particularly in the form of tanks.

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Syria Analysis: Could Hezbollah Involvement Spark Sectarian Violence?

http://goo.gl/NBJmh

Could increased involvement by Hezbollah transform the civil war between regime troops and the insurgency into a open Sunni-Shia/Alawite sectarian conflict, at least in the al-Qusair region?

Sectarianism has played a relatively small role in the Syrian civil war to date. Support for the insurgency, like support for Assad, is ethnically diverse. However, Hezbollah's incursions into the border region, and increasing lawlessness along the Lebanese border area, may be major catalysts for greater sectarian violence, at least between Al Qusayr and the border with Lebanon.

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Iraq Audio Analysis: The Political Story Behind This Week's Deaths --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24

I spoke with Monocle 24's The Daily last night about Tuesday's fighting --- following a raid by security forces on a protest camp --- which killed at least 27 people in Hawija, near Kirkuk in northern Iraq.

Listen from the 7:42 mark on The Daily homepage or in a pop-out window

The discussion began with the provocative questions, "How deep does the sectarian schism run? Is this a return to civil war?"

To deal with this, I focused on the context for the event to look at what is likely to follow: the months of escalating, mainly-Sunni demonstrations against the al-Maliki Government; the sparks for the protests last December; and the issues that persist.

My take-away line from Monocle 24's final question, "What can we do about tbis?"....

"Nothing. The change will have to come from Iraqis themselves."

Iran Live: Rising Prices for Food --- Now Shortages and Rationing?

0854 GMT:Nuclear Watch. The Ministry of Labour has announced that the Supreme Court of Administration has received a complaint from workers that the increase in the minimum wage is keeping up with inflation.

The Central Bank puts inflation at 30.5% - with many believing the figure to much higher – while the minimum wage was only increased by 25%.

100 city councillors have begun a petition urging the government to recognize “the legitimate demands of the workers” and put the wage increase in line with the Central Bank’s official inflation rate.

0826 GMT:Nuclear Watch. Discussing negotiations over Iran’s nuclear programme, Ali Baqeri, the deputy secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, stated yesterday that “The ball is now in the court of the P5+1.”

On Wednesday, the speaker of parliament Ali Larijani also called for the P5+1 countries to be responsive to Iran’s nuclear aspirations, declaring that "With full materialization of Iran's peaceful nuclear rights based on the NPT (Non-Proliferation Treaty), we can be optimistic about expected success in the talks with the Group 5+1."

Meanwhile, Iran’s Ambassador to the UN, Mohammad Khazaei, rejected claims that Iran’s nuclear programme was a threat to the security of the Middle East, instead accusing Israel – unsurprisingly – of being the primary source of instability.

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Syria Live: "The Regime Used Chemical Weapons" Campaign

Claimed footage of the destruction of the Ummayad Mosque in Aleppo

See also Syria Analysis: Could Hezbollah Involvement Spark Sectarian Violence
Wednesday's Syria Live: The Fight Near the Lebanese Border

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1740 GMT: Chemical Weapons. Two significant updates about our previous story that the US now says Assad has used chemical weapons in Syria....

Danger Room reports that there is clear and unambiguous evidence, based on blood samples of the victims, that sarin gas was used by the Assad regime, according to an unnamed American intelligence official:

“This is more than one organization representing that they have more than one sample from more than one attack,” the source tells Danger Room. “But we can’t confirm anything because no is really sure what’s going on in country.”

What’s clear is that the samples are authentic, and that the weapons were almost certainly employed by the Assad regime, which began months ago mixing up quantities of sarin’s chemical precursors for an potential attack, as Danger Room first reported.

“It would be very, very difficult for the opposition to fake this. Not only would they need the wherewithal to steal it or brew it up themselves. Then they’d need volunteers who would notionally agree to a possibly lethal exposure,” the source adds.

This assessment sounds definitive, as if the US is certain sarin was used. It is also a lot stronger rhetoric than the official statement originally leaked through Secretary of Defense Hagel.

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US Opinion: From Boston To Syria --- Suffering Is Not Relative

The true victory of Evil comes when people come to accept it-- when it becomes a badge of honor to treat constant fear, stress and surveillance as the “New Normal.” "Keep Calm and Carry On" makes for a nice T-shirt slogan but a bad ethical precedent. This doesn’t mean people should make rash decisions or, G-d forbid, victimize others in the name of one’s own suffering. But if something is terrible, we must say it is terrible and not worry about offending those who have had it worse.

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Iraq (and Beyond) Live: Scores Killed in Protest Camp and in Attacks Outside Mosques

1841 GMT: Iraq

At least eight people were killed and 23 more wounded when a car bomb exploded in eastern Baghdad, police and medical sources said.

1256 GMT: Bahrain

The visit of the United Nations Special Rapporteur on Torture and Other Cruel, Inhuman or Degrading Treatment or Punishment has been put off until further notice at the request of the regime.

Juan Mendez was due in the Kingdom from 8-15 May.

This is the second time that my visit has been postponed, at very short notice. It is effectively a cancellation as no alternative dates were proposed nor is there a future road map to discuss.

Let me be clear this was a unilateral decision by the authorities. Unfortunately, it is not the first time the government has tried to avoid responsibility for the postponement of my visit, which was originally supposed to take place over a year ago.

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Iran Live: An All-Is-Well Analysis of the Presidential Election

1731 GMT: Oil Watch Ship industry sources say Iran is storing millions of barrels of oil on tankers in its territorial waters amid sanctions.

Ship industry sources gave varying estimates on how much oil Iran was storing at sea, but all said the volume was higher.

Data from maritime intelligence publisher IHS Fairplay estimated 10 of Iran's supertankers, each able to carry up to 2 million barrels of crude, were storing oil, together with one smaller tanker able to carry up to 1 million barrels.

The data showed a further two supertankers were also probably deployed on floating storage, based on the length of time they were stationary, meaning as much as 25 million barrels in total.

The vessels, all belonging to Iran's top tanker operator NITC, were located close to the Iranian oil terminals of Assaluyeh, Kharg Island and Bahregan, the data showed.

Another ship industry source estimated 17 NITC vessels were storing crude oil, mainly on supertankers, while another said 15 tankers were storing crude oil around Iran, with volumes close to 30 million barrels.

Last year Iran's floating storage was estimated to have reached at least 33 million barrels before buyers were found.

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Syria Live: The Fight Near the Lebanese Border

2007 GMT: Umayyad Mosque. It is hard to overstate the cultural, symbolic, historical and architectural importance of the Umayyad Mosque, the Great Mosque of Aleppo. Months ago, it was occupied by Assad fighters and used to attack nearby rebel positions. The mosque then fell to Syrian rebels. Today, it has been attacked by Assad forces and the minaret has been destroyed. The Local Coordination Committees have posted this statement:

The Umayyad Mosque in Aleppo is considered to be one of the most famous and important mosques in the Islamic world and is one of the most important world heritage sites. The mosque witnessed almost all eras of history. Regime forces have committed today a new crime against human and cultural heritage by targeting the minaret of the mosque and completely destroying it. This act comes in the context of a systematic policy of the authoritarian regime to destroy all Syrian cultural landmarks.

We, in the Local Coordination Committees condemn this criminal act that shook the conscience of all Syrians and underline the continuing struggle to achieve the goals of our glorious revolution, no matter how far this criminal regime goes in targeting humans and stone.

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Syria Analysis: Chemical Weapons, the US, and the Insurgency

The use of chemical weapons or their possession by the "wrong" forces, while genuinely considered a threat by US and European governments, has been used to date to justify the build-up of a multi-national base in Jordan, with training and the supply of weapons to insurgents.

The US Secretary of State, though indirectly and carefully, opens up the prospect: will the chemical weapons argument now be used to escalate that support, possibly moving it into the open?

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