The Latest from Iran (5 April): Repression

2230 GMT: To close this evening, a photograph of reformist leader Feizollah Arab Sorkhi, temporarily released from prison today, with his family (inset).

2215 GMT: Mousavi's Statement. Back from an evening break to find a summary of Mir Hossein Mousavi's discussion with reformist members of Parliament. We'll have an analysis in the morning but here is the substance....

Mousavi advised Iranian authorities to return to models set up by Ayatollah Khomeini and base policies on “collective wisdom” to remedy the post-election crisis. Had that wisdom prevailed earlier, “we would not have witnessed such bitter incidents.”

Mousavi, as he has done before, criticised both Iranian state media and foreign media. Iran's national broadcaster was “destroying the doctrines of the Imam (Khomeini)”: “In my opinion Seda va Sima [Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting] and the foreign media have been acting like the two edges of a pair of scissors in distorting the luminous face of the Imam.”

NEW Iran Document: Jafar Panahi’s Wife on His Detention & Health
Iran Exclusive: Detained Emad Baghi in Poor Health, House Raided, Relative Beaten
Video: Obama on Iran, Health Care (2 April)
The Latest from Iran (4 April): Renewal

Mousavi also invoked Khomeini to claim the "ability of the country to pass through the crises of the time” was through direct connection of the people with the regime, the government, and the leadership. In Khomeini's time, decisions were made through “rational discussions” and the Imam “provided a basis for the presence of different factions and opinions without barring anyone’s presence”.


1745 GMT: Spin of the Day. Press TV rewrites the critical letter of Ali Larijani (see 1615 GMT) to the President:

"As the Ahmadinejad government and Parliament move to iron out the details of the subsidy reform bill, Speaker Ali Larijani said Monday lawmakers would do their utmost to cooperate with the president, asking him to do the same."

1740 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Kalemeh reports that the release from detention of senior reformist Feizollah Arab-Sorkhi (see 1340 GMT) is for only five days and comes with a bail of $1 million.

1615 GMT: Larijani Responds to Ahmadinejad. We noted earlier today that the President had made an appeal, in a letter to Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, for revision of the legislation on subsidy reform and spending.

Larijani has now replied sharply. In his letter, he defends the approach of the Majlis and criticises Ahmadinejad's speeches and request for a public referendum. He accuses the President of intervention and interference in the Majlis' affairs.

Larijani aligns himself with the Supreme Leader's recent advice for more co-operation between the Majlis and the Government. However, he asks Ahmadinejad to answer two questions:

Firstly, what is the Government forecast for the rate of inflation in each of the two scenarios of an extra $20 billion spending (The Parliament-approved bill) and an extra $40 billion"(Ahmadinejad's demand)?

Secondly, what would be the Government's estimate of economic growth in each of the scenarios?

1600 GMT: Nowruz Snub for Ahmadinejad? According to Khabar Online, only one-third of the Majlis' members attended the Norouz meeting held with the President.

Ali Larijani (head of Parliament), Mohammad Hassan Abutorabi Fard (First Deputy Speaker) , Mohammad Reza Bahonar (Second Deputy Speaker), Ahmad Tavakoli (Director of Majlis Research Center), Elyas Naderi, and a number of other well-known MPs are amongst those who did not attend the meeting.

1340 GMT: Arab-Sorkhi Released. EA has learned from a reliable source that Feizollah Arab-Sorkhi, the leading member of the Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution party detained since last summer, has come out of Evin Prison.

1320 GMT: Mahmoud's Nuclear. Oh, good, this should lead to a lot of heated press speculation. The head of Iran's atomic energy programme, Ali Akbar Salehi, has foreshadowed Iran's revelation of a "series of scientific achievements" on National Nuclear Technology Day: "The President [Mahmoud Ahmadinejad] will have good news for the nation on Friday."

1245 GMT: Economy Watch. Kalemeh that 150 workers of a textile factory in Ardebil province in northwestern Iran gathered in front of the governor's office of the governor to protest unpaid wages for the last seven months.

The demonstration is politically significant because the factory was launched as part of the Ahmadinejad economy agenda in his re-election campaign. It is reported that the factory has cut its workforce by 85%.

1240 GMT: So Much for Development. Mizan Khabar reports that the Industrial Development and Renovation Organisation has prohibited the use of laptops, external drives, and other hardware by its managers on their foreign trips.

1235 GMT: Nuke Chatter. The Iranian Foreign Ministry has repeated its current line, without any sign of compromise, "Iran is still ready to negotiate a solution to its nuclear stand-off with the West, but only on the condition that foreign powers agree to a fuel swap on Iranian territory. "

1140 GMT: President's Subsidy Appeal. The Iranian Labor News Agency reports another intervention from President Ahmadinejad on the issue of subsidy reform and spending. He has written Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani to claim problems in the implementation of the Parliament-approved proposal and to call on the Majlis to help the Government.

1130 GMT: The Big Repression Question. An EA correspondent gets to the politics of the recent nes of detentions, in particular the contest with former President Hashemi Rafsanjani:

The next big question is whether all the high-profile political prisoners will go back to Evin, given that they were let out for the Nowrouz holidays and we are way past the end of them. In the case of Marashi, Rafsanjani's close associate, it seems that his period of liberty has come to an end.

Hassan Lahuti, Faezeh Hashemi's son and Rafsanjani's grandson, will have to face court proceedings and will therefore be barred from returning to London. The court proceedings of Rafsanjani's children, Mehdi and Faezeh Hashemi, are also going to happen within the near future, according to Rah-e-Sabz.

1035 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. The authorities have not only put Hossein Marashi, ally of Hashemi Rafsanjani and a former Vice President, in jail; it appears they have also taken his blog off-line. A cached copy of Marashi's last entry, written on Sunday just before he was returned to prison, seems to be available.

(An EA correspondent reports that he can access Marashi's latest post, but I am still having no luck. In it, Marashi confirms his return to jail and says that he does not see the new period as that of a prisoner of the Islamic Republic but rather as a new duty and experience.)

1030 GMT: Economy Watch. The Central Bank of Iran claims that the annual inflation rate has declined sharply to 10.8% for the year ending 20 March 2010. This compares to 25.4% for the previous 12 months.

0900 GMT: One to Watch. Parleman News reports that delegates of the coalition of reformist parties, the Imam Khomeini Line, are in meetings with Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, Hashemi Rafsanjani, and Mohammad Khatami. Details are promised soon.

0830 GMT: Journalist and filmmaker Mohammad Nourizad, the imprisoned journalist and filmmaker, will appear in court today, offering his family the first chance to see him during his 107-day detention. Nourizad was reportedly not allowed to make a phone call for more than three months because of his refusal to accept interrogators’ demands and conditions. In the only call allowed to his famtily, he assured, “I am standing firm with an iron will.”

0545 GMT: One of the striking features of the debate over Iran's legal and political situation on Race for Iran, the blog of Flynt and Hillary Leverett, is the near-total refusal of regime and Ahmadinejad advocates --- including the Leveretts --- to discuss or even acknowledge the Government's detention and treatment of opponents. (That is a major reason why they focus on the question of the vote count in the Presidential election; it allows them to shut away the less savoury developments of the next 9 1/2 months.)

Occasionally, there will be a repetition of the regime line that the abuses at Kahrizak Prison, including the three deaths, were recognised by the Supreme Leader, but this is followed by the implication that this resolved any difficulties.

So this morning we begin with more news of political prisoners. Yesterday, we reported from an absolutely reliable source on the poor health of detained journalist Emad Baghi and the harassment of his family. In a few minutes, we'll post a disturbing message from the wife of imprisoned film director Jafar Panahi on concerns for his well-being.

In an audio interview with the International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran, the son of journalist Isa Saharkhiz says his father’s condition has deteriorated since a hunger strike in March. Mehdi Saharkhiz said that his father has lost 20 kilogrammes (45 pounds) over the past few months and that solitary confinement and the harsh prison environment have threatened his health.

Pedestrian reports on a bit of good news with the release of student Sourena Hashemi after more than three months but adds this context: there is no word of the fate of his friend Alireza Firouzi, who was detained at the same time.

One of the reasons for Hashemi's arrest was his appearance in a campaign video for Mehdi Karroubi. All the students involved were expelled or suspended from their universities.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8M-Q_gyPkw0&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]

Of course, these are events which are not highlighted by the Iranian state. Yesterday, for example,there was a focus on the declaration of Iran's top nuclear negotiatior, Saeed Jalili, after his trip to Beijing that there were increasingly close relations between Iran and China. (More importantly, no word from Jalili about the substance of the negotiations over Iran's nuclear programme and threatened international sanctions.) Look also for big play of the story that China and India will attend Tehran's conference on nuclear disarmament on 17-18 April.

And many in the Western media can be distracted. A lot of the US press corps is being taken along with the book promotion of a "former Revolutionary Guard turned CIA agent", Reza Kahlili (a pseudonym), a story which could be true but is more than a decade old. Still, that doesn't stand in the way of headlines for Kahlili's headline assertion, "Iran will be a nuclear-armed state in the very near future....The only way to stop that from happening may be to attack Iran now, before it gets a nuclear weapon."

Top prize for scary distraction, however, goes to the  Financial Times which, with almost no support, announces, "US Fears Iran Could Use Powerboat as a Weapon."

Comments

[Catherine]

Iranian opposition leader Mehdi Karroubi [has again] condemned the arrest and imprisonment of political and social activists and warned that the continuation of these policies will “further spread the crisis within the Islamic Republic.”

Mehdi Karroubi visited the family of imprisoned journalist and human rights activists Emadeddin Baghi. According to Saham News, Karroubi stated that Emaddedin Baghi, Ahamd Zeidabadi, Issa Saharkhiz, Feizollah Arabsorkhi, and all other post-election detainees should be released by the Islamic Republic.
More: http://persian2english.com/?p=9169

[Catherine]

Plane Drain?
Iran's Parliament to examine emigration of airline pilots
Majlis Speaker Ali Larijani has said that parliamentary committees will examine the emigration of veteran airline pilots. The MPs are paying close attention to the issue of the emigration of a large number of senior pilots to foreign countries, the Majlis News Agency quoted him as saying on Saturday.
http://www.payvand.com/news/10/apr/1028.html
(Source Mehr)

[Catherine]

Add this to the 2 distractions above: Can the CIA sabotage Iran's nuclear project?
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100404/pl_afp/usiranintelligencenuclear_20100404213402

[Megan]

This is the interview of Tahereh Saiedi, wife of Jafar Panahi with VOA on April 2. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BV2ayhnRays&feature=youtu.be

She mentioned that she had been allowed to visit her husband once since he had been detained. She said her husband had lost a great deal of weight. She said her husband had a history of chest pain (probably angina) when under stress and noted her husband holding his chest during the short visit. She said her husband who had been in solitary confinement had been moved to smaller cell.

[ange paris]

Dear Scott
I don't know what are you doing on the Leverett's site "the race for Iran" ? unlike some readers of EA I don't find an "illuminating" debate or "fascinating " discussion ! I am very sorry, I can't reply on their site because my english is not enough good to debate with people who write articles in lot's of news papers; here I am more confortable :-)
- they give the outcome of the polls made "after" the elections and "after" Khamnei's statement( during the friday's pray") ; in a country where people are killed during a demonstration, how could you expect that people display their true thoughts with a such crackdown !
-when you asked them about HR , their response was "Crimes against humanity? Are you in charge of propaganda now? Perhaps you meant England, the US, and Israel? Perhaps you were thinking about Iraq, Afghanistan, Lebanon, theWest Bank, and Gazza?"
It's not fair because iranian regime kill its own people; in which "democratic" country do you see this kind of atrocity? ! and why don't they speak about the iranian regime's committement in the same countries cited above, because of their willing to "mould" the " mind "of people and their regime living around .
I don't agree with them , but let's say that they are right and we had the" most transparent " elections in the world !!
- why, during the demonstrations , their agents were on the rooftops, firing shots on the peaceful people;
- why SL didn't come to State TV saying" I have heard you , and we will investigate what has happened", and with democratic debates trying to reach a reconcilition and with democratic tools trying to prove that they were right and the other sides were wrong;
- why if they are right, don't they organise a referendum, in any case and according to them, they will win because they have 40000000 with them, why they don't approve this idea to get rid of this turmoil reigning over the country !
Scott, you are right and you have to keep you thoughts faithfully ; thanks to them you were chatted up by the others trying to "reconvert" and "mould" you as they are themself; as has said the oldest amercan journalist, a lovely woman, Obama,has to take blunt and clear decision even if he makes some ennemies, but he finds true friends.

[Scott Lucas]

ange,

Initially I intended to write a reaction to the Leveretts' appearance on US public television, given the failure of the interviewer to press them on their evidence and argument, and then depart.

However, when readers responded --- many with denunciations but some with information and interpretation --- I sensed a chance for engagement. My impression is that, up to this discussion, most of the comments on Race for Iran were cheerleading for the Leveretts. I don't think the concept of rights, let alone the specifics of detentions and abuses, had often been raised on the board --- this was always set aside or ignored in favour of criticism of the US Government's policies (which, again, echoes the Leveretts' approach).

And while most of those commenting are still focused on demanding that the election was legitimate (beyond which, in a narrow sense, Eric Brill has put an argument that should be recognised and answered), there have been a couple of instances of significant exchanges on what happened in the days after the elections. (See, for example, my exchange of views with "Mohammad".) There are at least few Race for Iran readers who, not knowing of EA before, have now come to look at our news and analysis. And there is at least one Iran Government official who has participated in the discussion.

In the end, I think it is comfortable but limiting just to remain in discussion with those who agree with my point of view. It is challenging but I think productive to talk with those who have a different opinion.

And a bonus, I think: for days, the agenda on Race for Iran has shifted from the one set by the Leveretts --- set aside any consideration of Iran; focus only on the US Government's approach --- to one set by this discussion amongst readers. The two later pieces of the Leveretts have faded in the light brought by raising important political, legal, and social issues.

S.

[Catherine]

@ Ange Paris (post 5)
Well-said. I think these essential points *have* been made at times during the discussion (which I'm still wading through!), but during long periods there's been more of a focus on numbers of all kinds, polls, and the relative logic of each others' arguments. One of the comments that stands out in my mind was made by a certain 'Pak', who said that the fact that Iran isn't by any stretch of the imagination a real democracy basically renders lots of these arguments moot (pointless). The lack of a real democracy in Iran is also the reason why you need to ask the questions you do after: "I don’t agree with them , but let’s say that they are right and we had the” most transparent ”elections in the world".

Another interesting point someone made was, "there really was a fifth candidate that took all the votes from nearly 85% of all the eligible voters of Iran, that is the regime itself, the current Iran’s form of government, that currently is represented by the supreme leader." The actions (not) taken by the authorities in your questions are, amongst the many other ways the regime has responded to public protest, the reason why that "fifth candidate" - not initial suspicions of vote-rigging - eventually became the main focus of protests and resistance.

[Megan]

I suppose if someone paid them a handsome sum, Leveretts next blog will be about humanity of Kim jong ill or they may show their bleeding hearts for Saddam Hussein.

[Catherine]

Scott,
I totally agree with your reasons for sticking it out so long at Race for Iran. And bringing this discussion/their blog more to the attention of EA readers is also a good thing. I have just one objection. Why did you chose to announce the new name of Enduring America to them first? That's not fair! :-)

Scott Lucas says:
April 4, 2010 at 10:57 am
Salam Fiorangela,
The blog is Enduring America (soon to be renamed EA WorldView): http://www.enduringamerica.com.
Scott

[Catherine]

In the last sentence of my post 7 perhaps it's more correct to say:
The actions (not) taken by the authorities in your questions are, amongst the many other ways the regime has responded to public protest, the reason why that “fifth candidate” eventually also became a focus of protests and resistance.

[Scott Lucas]

To all EA readers,

I am very sorry --- in true absent-minded prof mode, I thought we had blogged the intended name change earlier this year. Readers' reactions to the proposal would be most welcome.

I should have added in my previous post what Catherine noted --- there was a lengthy heart-felt intervention by Pak in the comments about the Islamic Republic, democracy, and rights. No one responded to him/her.

S.

[Catherine]

OOOOOOhhhh! New name contest!
You're probably going to need a separate thread....

My initial reaction is that EA Worldview will have new visitors wondering what 'EA' stands for, and if written in full, Enduring America World View, both the name on the blog banner and the corresponding url might be too long. But I like the 'world' idea.
Sort of like David Frost going from 'Frost over Australia' to 'Frost over the World' ;-)

[gloumdalclitch]

Scott,
Mr Isa Saharkhiz has lost 45 pounds in prison

[Don Cox]

'we had the" most transparent "elections in the world".'

This is true. Seldom has an election been so openly rigged, with so little attempt at a cover-up.

In most rigged elections, they do at least pretend to count the votes.

[Scott Lucas]

Gloumdalclitch,

Apologies for my appalling maths.

S.

[ange paris]

Don Cox
It was just a joke ! don't worry ! it was only a supposition ! "Ziad Be Khodetoun Naguirid"; Instead of focusing on the suppositions, answer all my questions !

[ange paris]

Scott
EA itself is the best whitout "world views" , it's your "signature", the name of your "brand".

[ange paris]

Don Cox
Sorry, I have misunderstood your thoughts, I agree with you !

[ange paris]

and Don Cox, you are too funny :-)

[ange paris]

"Ali Larijani (head of Parliament), Mohammad Hassan Abutorabi Fard (First Deputy Speaker) , Mohammadreza Bahonar (Second Deputy Speaker), Ahmad Tavakoli(Director of Majlis Research Center), Elyas Naderi, and a number of other well-known MPs are amongst those who did not attend the meeting".
I would like to wish them good luck continuing to work in these conditions; Go Go Go ! another 3 years !!
:-)

[danial]

@Scott Lucas...

Are you really having a change of name, EA to EA World View?

I'm Iranian and I can't pronounce W in World.

Also, I wanted to ask is "Enduring" an adjective or a verb?

[gunni]

@ Scott

After the Iranians paid a very heavy price in the post elections turmoil’s how could it be that there is any doubt that the elections weren’t rigged? Let’s suppose they were not – can anybody tell me why more than 100 people in the aftermath lost there lives?
The murder of 72 Iranians is accurately documented, the other ones were secretly buried on the graveyard at night. It was just only a little misunderstanding?
In my opinion parts of the debate on the leveret – blog is a ghost discussion from yesterday – but congratulations - I think too that’s necessary to have an argument with this guys.

Please let me summon 2 of the 280 contributions which ( I think) lead further:

a. Let’s get down to the business of an intelligent discussion of AMERICAN interests and the furtherance of an American future world where my kids and yours will live……….
b. And those rules are still in place. I am not saying this is how it ought to be in Iran but, as most Americans’ once-favourite news anchor, the avuncular Walter Cronkite, used to say at the end of his evening newscast: “That’s the way it is.”
The “nice Lady A” on the blog is talking about Iran and with this sentence she is saying:
(My translation) “Scott, what you have said is a little bit far-fetched – let’s talk about America” – so she makes more than clear that there is only little interest to understand what’s going on in Iran.

The other one, Candidate Bill, the high flyer, knows a lot but he seems to be fat – no hunger any more – he stops in his nice try of analysis saying: That’s the way it is. And now – what?

I think these are two examples of western information diseases – they listened too much to Fox, CNN and others – they are lost in the space of superficial covering – which is causing
a serious disorder of their emphatically abilities. Because – with the exception of two countries – the most are to fare away from them to understand – that’s really a problem.
I am far away to make jokes about these guys :) – and I really don’t want to say that in this blog you haven’t mentioned real problems so far as I could understand. The problem is – the Leverets just only have a chance to screw minds if there is a lack of information.

As far as the Iranians can tell according to the special circumstances they live under its essential to the people in other countries too, to get information what the green movement inside Iran is doing. My statement: Scott, keep on covering on EA the “green views” – the leveret blog shows that it’s deeply needed.

[danial]

Re: 1615 GMT: Larijani Responds to Ahmadinejad...

How long is this going to carry? When will this legislation come to pass?

Are both sides (Larijani, Ahmadinejad) waiting for Khamenei's response or will they settle it together?

[QLineOrientalist]

You mentioned Eric Brill's essay, which I just finished reading. I must say, he put in a great deal of work and came up with something worth reading. This is not the Leverett's fawning over Ahmadinejad. Here are some comments I made to a friend of mine who forwarded the essay to me:

Thanks for the article, N--. I gave it a first read. I sent you (and him) a message when I was about half way through, but my poor, creaky refurbished laptop did not transmit it. Feel free to forward my comments to Brill, along with my congratulations for his hard work. Basically, I said I thought his sequence of events rested way too heavily on the government version of events. The current Iranian government (at least the current one) is delusional at best and inveterate liars at worst, mostly the latter. I wouldn't trust them if they said there was a heavy opposition presence at the polling stations. I just don't see why I should believe them. I've read tons of articles by them (for my many sins!) and translated not a few. They're just not to be believed about anything. I just had to laugh when Brill wondered aloud why the opposition doesn't just take the ballots their people observed and compared them with the ones they had not observed. Yeah, as if...
Not to leave the opposition off the hook. They include more than their share of liars as well and I don't trust most of what they say. I've taken the lead in exposing some of their lies. The opposition claims are often way over the top and completely unfounded. It is much easier to sit in an office and make up stories about Lebanese Hezbollah beating up demonstrations than actually documenting anything, which takes real work...
THAT SAID I think the author is right in that the opposition and its friends have had ample time to come up with a convincing story of the mechanisms of the fraud they claim and have come up short. I think the statistical techniques Brill sniffs at as esoteric (or something--I forget his exact words) could lay the basis for something interesting. I have meant to look into this myself. To what extend do these techniques hold up in other elections? I wonder. But I just don't have the time to follow up on this sort of thing. I know Ali Ansari, he's a good guy, he's not a lackey of the West, but very nationalistic and anti-imperialist.
The author's portrait of Ahmadinejad is a bit too positive--he was a terrible governor of the small part of Azerbaijan he ran, making one of his war buddies (Mahsuli) into one of the richest men in Iran in an oil reexportation scam. I don't know what the source of the story of his helping Azerbaijani students study in Turkish comes from. I didn't see him source it, and I have not been able to find a source for it. The Azerbaijani supporters of promoting the Turkish language deny he ever did any such thing. You have to understand, Norman, this is a hugely delicate topic, more delicate than, say, promoting Spanish in the US. The Persian chauvinists would have made a huge noise over it. But that dog did not bark. As for his running of Tehran, there was little enough to recommend him. He famously allowed millions of dollars to disappear when he was mayor there and left nothing memorable behind. By way of contrast, the previous mayor, Karbashchi, was genuinely popular and did great things for the city...
That being said, the author does not treat him as some kind of incipient Hugo Chavez, the way some apologists do. Rather, he seems to treat him as sort of a ward boss on a national stage, doling out favors for votes.
There are minor gaffes in the article. One was the pro-Ahmandinejad demonstration in Tehran, in which he takes the view of a pro-Ahmandinejad author as saying that over a million people participated, a number way, way out of line and no more credible than many opposition figures for their demonstrations. And yet he takes this report--which was not even a news report, but a Comment is Free Guardian report--as the Gospel truth.
In the article's opening, Brill makes the comparison of the Green Movement lies with those of WMD in Iraq (and, he might have added, babies torn out of incubators). This collapses on the most cursory inspection. Obama was elected on a platform of dialog with Iran, and this is precisely the way he began his term. The Green Movement caught him completely off-guard, and he was plainly at a loss as to how to respond to it. Compare the constant barrage of anti-Saddam noise which presaged the first two US-Iraq wars with the awkward silence coming out of the Obama administration about Iran and you just have to see that Brill is just delusional on this. There's no other word for it.
OK, that's all I have time for. Thanks again for the article. I'm sure it will provide much ground for noisy diatribes, but it has, I should say, received grudging respect in Enduring America, which has taken up the cudgels for the Greenies. Hopefully there will be some dialog, which, God knows, we desperately need.

[Samuel]

Since the Eric A. Brill essay is being cited I think we owe Mr. Brill the courtesy of linking to it.

http://iran2009presidentialelection.blogspot.com/