Iran Snap Analysis: Playtime's Over

No doubt about it. Politics, conflict, and manoeuvring are back in Iran. After the New Year’s holiday, almost all the players were on court yesterday — the Supreme Leader, the President, Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, Hashemi Rafsanjani, Mir Hossein Mousavi, reformist MPs.

This re-surge of politics, marked by the fight over Ahmadinejad's subsidy cut and spending proposals and the meeting of reformists with Mousavi, Rafsanjani, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mohammad Khatami, has even caught the eye of journalists who have written little since the supposed bust of the Green Movement on 22 Bahman (11 February).

The non-Iranian media has only a limited view, however, and are scrambling for explanations: The New York Times, for example, decides that the Supreme Leader has come down strongly on the side of Ahmadinejad in the subsidy battle --- a fair hypothesis, but the "proof" comes from the declarations of the Islamic Republic News Agency and Press TV. (The Times article also takes no note of the Mousavi-Rafsanjani-Karroubi-Khatami meetings with reformists.)



What does all this mean? A proper analysis will take some time and will also need to be flexible to take account of the rush of developments, but here are some starting points:

1. This conflict has always been more than just the Green Movement v. the regime. Some coverage of 22 Bahman (11 February) fed that misleading view; the events yesterday demonstrate that we can now put away the narrative of "it all ended on that day".

2. Rafsanjani, Mousavi, and the reformists all signalled that they want to work within the framework of the Islamic Republic, and Rafsanjani in particular made it clear that there should be no challenge to the Supreme Leader. At the same time, all also stated firmly that the Government has distanced itself from the people, the marker of continuing and possibility escalating challenge to Ahmadinejad.

3. The meetings with the reformist coalition of MPs emphasised the importance of Parliament in the Iranian system. That is not just deference to those were in attendance; it is a sign that the Majlis is seen as the site of a move against the President. That in turn points to an attempt to work with the conservative "opposition within", including Larijani, in the battle on the budget and economic legislation.

4. But it's not just economics. There are a series of unresolved issues that the Parliament could take further, notably the investigation of the Government's post-election abuses.

Playtime is over.