The Latest from Iran (10 April): Look Over There!

1500 GMT: Economy Watch. Human rights activists claim that most companies in Qazvin province will remain closed until end of the current Iranian month of Farvardin.

1445 GMT: Economy Watch. Although five major oil companies, included Shell, have recently suspended imports to Iran, here are the big players who ensure that Tehran doesn’t feel the squeeze quite as much: Petronas (Malaysia), Independent (Kuwait) and Total (France) are Iran’s largest suppliers.

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1430 GMT: Remembering. Hadi Khamenei, the brother of the Supreme Leader and a reformist, has visited the family of the nephew of Mir Hossein Mousavi, killed during the Ashura demonstrations.



1415 GMT: Corruption Watch. The latest on the alleged corruption ring, including the Fatemi Avenue insurance fraud, inside the Government….

Rah-e-Sabz claims the Government will charge MP Elyas Naderan, who has made the public allegations, instead of the accused First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi.

Meanwhile, Khabar Online claims that Rahimi has handed out 18 oil projects to groups close to the Government. And reformist MP Mostafa Kavakebian has asserted that about 100 fraudsters in Iran’s oil water, and sewage ministries and some insurance companies have been arrested recently and has demanded that their names be published.

1300 GMT: Economic Front. Beyond the specific quarrel over subsidies and spending, there is a wider political feud over economic approach amongst conservatives and principlists.

Ahmad Tavakoli, one of the harshest Parliamentary critics of Ahmadinejad, has denounced the “liberal” capitalist approach since the President took office in 2005. (http://www.khabaronline.ir/news-53796.aspx) There is a similar attack in Alef on “Ahmadinejad and the Chicago boys”, a reference to the free-market, monetarist philosophy of University of Chicago economists such as Milton Friedman. The economic failures of the Iranian system are attributed to the US, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and other usual culprits. (http://alef.ir/1388/content/view/67173/)

A much better critique comes from Sadegh Zibakalam in Aftab, as he argues that “many of the Revolutionaries’ accusations about the US are unfounded” (http://www.iran-emrooz.net/index.php?/news1/21873/)

1200 GMT: Round-up….

A new Persian news website, DayPress, has been established.

Rah-e-Sabz is gloating, with more than a bit of anticipating, over the subsidy/spending fight: After Ahmadinejad’s threat to resign, are the Supreme Leader and Majlis going to bow down to him?

There may be a compromise in the works, however, according to Khabar Online.

0545 GMT: We have posted an analysis by Ahmad Rafat of "The Green Movement in Transition".

0535 GMT: Economy Watch. It is being reported that some workers in Iran's state telecommunications company have gone 12 months without wages.

0530 GMT: Detaining the Press. EA correspondents are currently working on an updated list of imprisoned journalists: one of them is photojournalist Babak Bordbar, detained on Ashura, for whom Peyke Iran has published an appeal.

0500 GMT: Not for the first time, we begin the day with the story of a great diversion. Iran's National Nuclear Day was the pretext for an all-day regime show displaying the nuclear issue, and thus Tehran's victory in the struggle against US pressure and duplicity, and hoping no one would notice other developments at home.

And on that stage, the effort was far from a bust. The showpiece announcement was not that dramatic --- an alleged third-generation uranium centrifuge, six times more effective than its first-generation predecssor. (I had expected the President to run with the declaration of "one or two" additional sites for the nuclear programme.) Ahmadinejad's unveiling of one of those centrifuges was more Science Fair than Science Breakthrough in appearance, but it did set a short-term agenda.

Press TV, for example, could herald the great achievement without coming close to practical questions, such as how many centrifuges? Where will they be located? When will they be on-line? Given that more than half of Natanz's existing second-generation centrifuges were not in use, on latest count, where is the assurance that third-generation successors will operate at a signficant capacity?

And, of course, Iranian state media chose the "appropriate" political framing. The steady beat of Iranian right and pride v. US-led pressure swept away other considerations. No one, for example, had to think about Ahmadinejad's continued use of the nuclear and military issues --- remember the mock missile at the regime's 22 Bahman (11 February) rally? --- as props for legitimacy.

And, of course, no one had to interrupt National Nuclear Day with other inconveniences such as the escalating Parliament-President battle, now to the point of Ahmadinejad's threatened resignation, the charges of corruption against First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi, and the signs of opposition revival through meetings and statements such as Thursday's Mir Hossein Mousavi statement and yesterday's declaration by Mohammad Khatami. (The last-minute cancellation of a guest on Press TV's News Analysis programme ensured that the standard Punch-and-Judy show --- one guest defending Iran's peaceful quest for nuclear advance vs. another gently suggesting why there might be "Western" concerns --- could proceed.)

Did the international media pull back the screen on the President's wizardry? Well. no. CNN ran with it as "Ahmadinejad: Iran has 'fully mastered' nuclear technology". (There is, however, an intriguing break from the pack in The New York Times, which runs a Saturday Profile on Mohsen Sazegara, the former creator of the Revolutionary Guard who is now a foe of the regime, and his YouTube broadcast.)

The Latest from Iran: Dialogue or Conflict? (9 April)

2005 GMT: I have posted a separate entry about the eerie and comic experience of being "disappeared" by Press TV this evening.

2000 GMT: Rahnavard Praises Women Political Prisoners. Zahra Rahnavard, the wife of Mir Hossein Mousavi, has written in Rah-e-Sabz in praise of the perseverance of female political prisoners: “You Can Never Break Women”.

1915 GMT: Poacher or Gamekeeper? First Vice-President Mohammad-Reza Rahimi has responded to allegations by MPs that he heads a corruption ring (see 0445 and 1035 GMT) with a circular to all government agencies calling on them to fight economic corruption. In a follow-up interview, he called those who had leveled accusations against him "spreaders of slander" who did not deserve a response.

Yesterday "principlist" MP Elyas Naderan, supported by lawmakers Ahmad Tavakoli and Ali-Reza Zakani, said almost all members of an insurance fraud on Tehran’s Fatemi Avenue had been arrested, except “the current vice-president”.

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1755 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. The temporary release from detention of Iranian-American scholar Kian Tajbakhsh has been extended. Tajbakhsh, arrested last July, was originally sentenced to 15 years in prison; this was reduced to five years on appeal.


1645 GMT: Khatami's Warning. In a meeting with Tehran University students, Mohammad Khatami said that, if nothing is done, this year will be one of social crisis.

Khatami, criticising the people in charge of the Ahmadinejad Government, said that  the political atmosphere of Iran is very disappointing; as the government has chosen the strategy of lying, many young Iranian people are now questioning the Revolution itself.

1635 GMT: More on the Ahmadinejad Resignation Threat (1445 GMT). Rah-e-Sabz claims that, on state television, the President said that Ali Larijani is doing everything he can to cause problems for the government and thus the government will not allow him to do this: "This government has 24 million supporters and therefore I will defend those supporters."

Ahmadinejad said that, if the government is not powerful enough to defend the Iranian people's vote, he will announce his resignation on TV.

The website claims from sources that the Supreme Leader has assigned two people, Mr. Mohammadi and Mr Firouzabadi, who are close to the government to resolve this conflict.

1450 GMT: For Your Evening Viewing Pleasure. I will be speaking by phone with Press TV at 1930 GMT about Iran's nuclear programme. The other guest will be Professor Seyed Mohammad Marandi of the University of Tehran.

1448 GMT: Bigging It Up. Nothing striking in the Ahmadinejad speech. Instead, Iranian state media is trying to spin nuclear gold from the straw of these announcements:

The head of Iran's atomic energy organisation, Ali Akbar Salehi, claims that Iran now has new, "third-generation" centrifuges, "six times more powerful" than previous centrifuges.

Iran now has produced "dummy fuel" for its programme.

The Bushehr power plant "should be operational by the summer".

1445 GMT: The President Talks. We're now watching President Ahmadinejad's speech for National Nuclear Day. So far, no "big announcement", just a repetition of the call for global nuclear disarmament. And, oh yes, he has unveiled --- ta da! --- a new centrifuge which is supposed to be wicked powerful.

So, while we're waiting, this claim from Rah-e-Sabz: Ahmadinejad has threatened to resign if Parliament does not accept his demands over the subsidy and spending plans.

1145 GMT: Friday Prayer Summary. On National Nuclear Day, it's Ahmad Khatami leading the prayers ahead of President Ahmadinejad's appearance. Here's the take-away line: "If America makes a crazy move, its interests will be endangered by Iran's allies around the globe."

1130 GMT: The lawyer for Morteza Alviri, the former mayor of Tehran, has confirmed that Alviri has received a five-year prison sentence, with four years suspended, from an appeals court for participation in the 15 June demonstrations.

1110 GMT: A new website, "Campaign 11 Esfand", for support of political prisoners has been established.

1035 GMT: The Corruption Feud. Ahmadinejad advisors Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai and Mojtaba Samareh Hashemi have hit back at allegations of corruption against First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi (see 0445 GMT), calling for the prosecution of MP Elyas Naderan "and other liars".

0955 GMT: The Parliament-President Battle. Beyond the Motahari attack on the "despotic" Government (see 0950 GMT), a series of interventions in the struggle over the subsidy and spending plans:

Arsalan Fathipour is quoted by Khabar Online as saying that a law ratified by the Majlis must be implemented. If true, that is a marked shift from Fathipour's line two weeks ago that Parliament should authorise an extra $35 billion of spending, much more than the $20 billion allowed in the bill and close to the President's $40 billion demand.

Ali Abbaspour Tehranifard warns that not implementing laws because of personal bravado leads to chaos and says the Government's reaction is "strange".

Seyed Kazem Delkhosh Abatari asserts that meetings between the Government and Majlis looking for compromise have no legal binding and the issues should be sent to a special Parliamentary commission.

0950 GMT: The Majlis and Despotism. We've heard a lot of charges since June that the Government has been despotic. Still, it's a bit different when the claim come from conservative MP Ali Motahari at a press conference:

The Government approach to subsidy reform bill passed by the Parliament majlis tends to despotism. When President Ahmadinejad says I won't enforce a law passed by the parliament, it means nothing except autocracy. Adopting a correct method, he must first begin to implement the plan and if it faced a problem, it will send a bill to the Majlis and resolve it.

It's not an appropriate method for the administration trying to press Majlis to annul its decision while the president begins to threaten the MPs on the issue.

0920 GMT: Bahareh Hedayat, the detained student and women's rights activist, has been nominated for the 2010 Student Peace Prize by the European Students’ Union.

Hedayat was arrested in December of 2009 and is currently facing 16 counts of charges including “propagating a negative image of the regime, taking part in post-election protests, talking to foreign media and insulting the Supreme Leader and the President”.

0840 GMT: Meeting the families of political prisoners Bahareh Hedayat and Ahmad Zeidabadi, reformist leader Mojtaba Tajzadeh --- who is still on a temporary release from prison for and now beyond the Nowruz holidays --- declared that imprisonment is a failed project to suppress people's demands.

0835 GMT: We've posted a full summary of Mir Hossein Mousavi's statement in a Thursday meeting with the reformist Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution party.

0830 GMT: What is Mahmoud's Nuclear Surprise? Earlier this week, the head of Iran's atomic energy organisation said that the President would make a major announcement today about an advance in Tehran's programme, but last night Ahmadinejad was simply restating a vague line.

He told the German broadcaster RTL,"Although we are capable of producing 20-percent-enriched uranium, we still can exchange fuel with no preconditions," without specifying whether that meant a swap could take place outside Iran. He then added his standard self-sufficiency line, "If Iran is not provided with uranium enriched to a level of 20 percent, we will produce it on our own."

0825 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Fereshteh Ghazi, writing in Rooz Online, reports on the thousands of "anonymous" prisoners who face the threat of abuse and adverse conditions.

0640 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Mahmoud Beheshti Langarudi, the spokesman of the Teacher Trade Association, has gone on unlimited hunger strike to protest the harsh conditions of imprisoned teachers such as Rasool Badaghi, Mohammad Davari and Hashem Khastar.

Rasool Badaghi, a human rights activist, is entering the 15th day of his fhunger strike.

0635 GMT: Nuclear Talks. Take your pick of reports on another meeting of the 5+1 powers (US, UK, China, Russia, France, Germany) on Iran's nuclear programme. The representatives said the talks were worthwhile, and there would be more meetings. Press TV emphasises the statement of Russia's Ambassador to the UN, Vitaly Churkin for "diplomacy", although the quote from him has a double edge:

I don't think any of us wants to impose sanctions, what we want to have is a diplomatic solution. And all sorts of constructive proposals have been made to Iran. So if, as you mention, Iran wants to negotiate, they should start negotiating.

0445 GMT: After an extended break --- a Ph.D. student of mine went through his final examinations yesterday on his dissertation on Public Diplomacy and Interfaith Dialogue --- let's see if there is any dialogue in Iran this morning.

On the Parliament-President front, the chat isn't very friendly. High-ranking conservative PM Ali Motahari has set down a challenge over corruption to Ahmadinejad: if the accusations against First Mohammad Reza Rahimi in the Fatemi Street insurance fraud stand up, then the President --- if he is serious in his talk about justice  --- should be the first to punish Rahimi.

Ahmadinejad's controvesial aide Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, who is also the target of Parliamentary calls to stand down, has responded that these accusations are put simply to weaken the Ahmadinejad Government.

Ahmadinejad advisor  Mojtaba Hashemi Samareh added a nice twist: Rahimi, like all Government officials, fights economic corruption, and so the allegations against him must be wrong.

Last news about this file is that, Mohammad Dehghaan a member of Board of Governors in Parliament believes that Naderan’s talks are not just random claims, but they are based on the information attained from the judiciary office.
http://alef.ir/1388/content/view/67753/

The Latest from Iran (7 April): Ahmadinejad's Support?

2120 GMT: How Big is Ahmadinejad's Support? We may have had a quiet day, but there is debate over whether the President has had even quieter ones recently. Here are purported photographs from his speech at Orumiyeh in northwestern Iran:

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In contrast, this is a photograph posted by Fars News of Ahmadinejad in the area today:



1800 GMT: A Very Quiet Day. We've been around, but there hasn't been much to report. One note, however, as we keep an eyes on events in Kyrgyzstan with a view to featuring tomorrow morning. Here's the reaction of the Iran Foreign Ministry, as reported by Press TV:

Iran says it supports the restoration of peace in Kyrgyzstan after anti-government protests left 40 people killed in the country.

Foreign Ministry Spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast said Wednesday that Iran "wants the immediate restoration of domestic stability" in Kyrgyzstan and the prevention of the spread of insecurity to this sensitive region of Central Asia.

At least 40 people have been killed and 400 others injured in anti-government unrest in Kyrgyzstan.

1210 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Morteza Alviri, the former Mayor of Tehran, has been given a five-year prison sentence, four of which have been suspended, because of participation in the march of 15 June.

Rah-e-Sabz expresses concern over the status of human rights activist Somayeh Ojaghloo, whom it claims has been in an unknown location for more than a month.

1145 GMT: Ahmadinejad's Oh-So-Calm Response "I'll Break Your Teeth". The Iranian President has responded in a most measured way to Washington's Nuclear Defense Posture Review, issued yesterday:

American materialist politicians, whenever they are beaten by logic, immediately put their finger on the trigger like cowboys. Mr. Obama, you are a newcomer (to politics). Wait until your sweat dries and get some experience. Be careful not to read just any paper put in front of you or repeat any statement recommended. (American officials) bigger than you, more bullying than you, couldn't do a damn thing, let alone you....

I hope these published comments are not true....He (Obama) has threatened with nuclear and chemical weapons those nations which do not submit to the greed of the United States.

Be careful. If you set step in Mr (George W) Bush's path, the nations' response would be the same tooth-breaking one as they gave Bush.

1130 GMT: The Oil Squeeze. According to industry sources, Russian supplier LUKOil is stopping shipments to Iran.

LUKOil, Russia's second-largest oil company, has been sending 250,000 barrels to 500,000 barrels of gasoline every other month. The last shipment was made between 10 and 12 March.

LUKOil's decision follows withdrawals by Royal Dutch Shell, Glencore, & Vitol.

0930 GMT: Detaining the Press. The Committee to Protect Journalists reports that at least 35 journalists were imprisoned in Iran as of 1 April. Another 18 journalists were free on temporary New Year releases and were expected to report back to prison.

CPJ adds, "Many of the incarcerated journalists are under immense physical and psychological pressure to 'confess' to crimes they have not committed, including crimes that could carry the death sentence....Many have also been denied family visits and access to legal counsel. Others have been held without charge for periods far exceeding legal limits."

0900 GMT: In the Universities. Peyke Iran claims 160 students from Sabzevar Teacher's University have been expelled without a formal hearing because of protests.

0845 GMT: Economy Watch. Revolutionary Road reports, from Human Rights Activists News Agency and Iranian Labor News Agency, that "due to lack of raw materials, Metal Factory I of Tehran[one of the largest metal factories in Iran will be shut down and the doors will be closed to all their workers".

0645 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Rah-e-Sabz reports that the Revolutionary Court in Mahallat in central Iran has handed down four prison sentences, three of them suspended, one of 18 months, for Green Movement supporters for "acting against national security". Another supporter remains in detention.

0635 GMT: The B-Word. Ahmad Shirzad of the Islamic Iran Participation Front has said that, as there is no legal or political space for effective involvement, the party should boycott the next elections.

0630 GMT: Must Try Harder. Reflecting on the Supreme Leader's Nowruz call on Iranians to double their efforts to build the country, Hamid Reza Taraghi, a key member of the "conservative" Motalefeh party,  has said capabilities are not being used due to mismanagement.

0600 GMT: One to Watch --- The Corruption Charges. We noted this story yesterday, but given its potential significance, it bears repeating. Member of Parliament Elyas Naderan has alleged that First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi is the head of a large "corruption network".

Talk of corruption and the Ahmadinejad Government is far from new, so what's distinctive here? Well, Naderan is not a reformist or member of the Green opposition: he is a leading conservative voice on Parliament's Economic Committee. And just to note: the report is in the pro-Larijani Khabar Online.

Rah-e-Sabz offers a summary of the alleged "Fatemi Street" network, insurance fraud, and Rahimi's claimed involvement.

0530 GMT: A quieter day on the reformist/opposition front on Tuesday. There were moments such as Mir Hossein Mousavi's meeting with Feizollah Arab Sorkhi, the senior member of the Islamic Iran Participation Front who is on temporary release from detention.



So this is more of a case of waiting and watching. The significance does not have to be in an immediate action or statement of next steps; rather it is that Monday's meetings took place --- for the first time in this crisis to our knowledge, Mousavi, Karroubi, Khatami, Rafsanjani, and reformist MPs all connecting in a series of discussions.