Palestine Analysis: Breaking Down Israel's Counter Offer on Talks

On Thursday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that there would be no construction freeze in Jerusalem; however, he offered confidence-building gestures, such as allowing the opening of Palestinian Authority institutions in the eastern part of the city, transferring additional West Bank territory to Palestinian security control, and discussing all the core issues of the conflict during proximity talks with the Palestinian Authority.

Israel-Palestine Follow-Up:”Apartheid” Deportation Orders, Settlements

This counter-offer was put out by the Netanyahu Government through media organizations on Friday. The follow-up analysis was that Israel would announce an official shift in its Palestinian policy: willingness for an interim agreement in the West Bank that would include the establishment of a Palestinian state within temporary borders.


The formula of a Palestinian state within temporary borders was included in the second stage of the road map of 2003. However, this time the counter-offer, although it requires Israel to withdraw from more territory and perhaps even evacuate settlements, excludes the status of Jerusalem and only draws temporary borders with the West Bank.

U.S. Mideast special envoy George Mitchell met Defense Minister Ehud Barak and Netanyahu on Friday. Netanyahu, ready to take any dismissal of his offer as confirmation that the Palestinians are  “stubborn and rejectionist”, told Mitchell at the beginning of the meeting:

I look forward to working with the Obama administration to move peace forward. We are serious about it, we know you are serious about it and we hope the Palestinians respond.

Not only Ramallah rejected Israel’s counter-offer; Hamas’s leader in the Gaza Strip, Ismail Haniya, said Thursday that resumption of peace talks with Israel is a cover-up for the "Judaization of Jerusalem".

Meanwhile, the first signs of Israel’s new military order, which can deport tens of thousands of Palestinians from the West Bank, emerged. A Palestinian from the West Bank, Ahmad Sabah,was forcibly deported to the Gaza Strip on Wednesday, immediately after his release from detention in Israel.

The Latest from Iran (23 April): Rounding Up the News

2000 GMT: Consolation and Persistence. Mehdi Karroubi has visited Mostafa Tajzadeh, the former Deputy Minister of Interior, at his home. Tajzadeh, formally sentenced to six years in prison last week, had been in intensive care because of serious health issues.

1800 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Green Voice of Freedom carries a summary from human rights activists of prison sentences, including death penalties, for 27 detainees.

NEW Iran’s Nuclear Programme: The US Strategy
Iran Document: Detained Nourizad’s Letter to Khamenei “We Have Lost Our People”
Iran Document: Ayatollah Sane’i “Some Want Islam For Their Own Agendas”
The Latest from Iran (22 April): This Isn’t Over

On the other side of the watch, journalist and human rights activist Davoud Khokarami was released on Monday after two days of detention.


Statement of the Day

Mir Hossein Mousavi has offered another statement in a meeting with the National-Religious Front.

Mousavi said that the only way for realising national interests an ideal society was through a Green Movement that "pursues goals which are a reflection of the values, will and demands of the Iranian people”. He asserted, “We should pursue the creation of an interlinked civil society through the use of all the available resources in the country.”

Recalling the rise of the protest movement within hours of the Presidential election, Mousavi said, “The events that took place last year in Tehran on 15 June and the compassionate and sympathetic presence of the people along with tolerance, patience and cooperation and the protesters’ civil action set an example and standard for an ideal society”.

Framing the political challenge as a long-term process, Mousavi said, "The task ahead is immense and the path of the Green Movement is a lengthy one with many twists and turns; even if the Movement succeeds in its goals sooner than what many people expect, we must have patience and perseverance and to live with the Movement in order for it to persist.”

He concluded, “It should become apparent for everyone that we are seeking our national interests; this is not a question of selfishness. We do not want to stand beside tyranny and the tyrant. We stand by the oppressed.”

Earthquake Watch

The regime's statement of the day comes from Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, head of the Guardian Council at Tehran Friday Prayers. He has repeated the certainty, offered at last week's service by Hojatoleslam Kazem Seddiqi, that immorality such as provocative dress and adultery causes natural disasters: "We can avoid earthquakes if the faithful and devoted people pray to God."

Not sure everyone is taking this as seriously as they should, however. A "Boobquake" group has been established on Facebook to "prove boobs don't cause earthquakes"

Denial of Day

Members of Mehdi Karroubi's camp have dismissed rumours that the cleric is in ill health.

Warning the Reformists

Mohammad Abbaszadeh Meshkini, the Secretary General of Parliament's Article 10 Commission, has said that if the Mojahedin of Islamic. Revolution party and the Islamic Iran Participation Front continue their activities, "they will get trouble".

Iranian authorities have denied, however, that there are restrictions on the overseas travel of former President Mohammad Khatami. Last week Khatami cancelled an appearance at a disarmament conference in Japan, claiming he was pressured not to fly.

The Nuclear Front

Diplomats say Iran has agreed to more extensive monitoring of its nuclear facilities by the International Atomic Energy Agency.

A Ringing Endorsement. As President Ahmadinejad visits his country, Zimbabwe's President Robert Mugabe has backed Iran's "just cause" in pursuit of nuclear power.

Economy Watch

Alireza Marandi, the former Minister of Health, has asserted that only 15% of the Ahmadinejad Fourth Plan's health projects have been realised.

Political Prisoner Watch

A death sentence has been handed down to Habibollah Golparipour, an Iranian Kurd, because of "mohareb" (war against God).

Rah-e-Sabz notes that in the month of Farvardin, which has just ended, a total of almost 73 years in prison sentences were handed down for supporters of the Green Movement.

Culture Ups and Downs

Maziar Bahari, the Iranian-Canadian journalist detained for months during the post-election crisis, has been honoured by a German organisation. He will collect the award on 7 May.

Forough Farrokhzad, one of Iran's most distinguished writers, has been banned from the country''s Book of Poets.

MENA House: Protests "En Vogue" in Egypt

It’s become a daily event.  On most evening chat shows, whether it be 10 masa’an (10 in the Evening), al hayat al youm (Life Daily), 90 Minutes, or 48 Hours, protests are reported on regular, yes daily basis.  It’s totally "en vogue" these days.

Who can argue that democracy does not exist in Egypt? Of course it does, protests go on everywhere and anywhere.  Therefore the Egyptian public have a right to speak out their opinions.  A sign of a healthy society?

MENA House: An Interview with Head of Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood

However, on 18 April, the discussion on public protests hit (no intent on the pun) the People’s Assembly (Maglis al shaab).  An internal dispute between two leading MPs broke out. Fists were thrown, unpleasantries were exchanged.


As Mona El Shazly commented on her evening show 10 Masa’an, this has become commonplace, something to which viewers and commentators have become accustomed.  The real cause for concern was the nature of the topic that caused inflammatory reactions: the National Democratic Party called on the Interior Ministry to shoot protestors, referring specifically to demonstrations on 6 April.

Activists who took part in those protests included the 6^th of April Youth Movement, the leftist Tagammu Party, the liberal Ghad Party, and the National Association for Change (NAC), and Mohamed El Baradei's pro-reform coalition, as well as members of other groups.

Protesters had planned to walk from downtown Cairo's Tahrir Square to the nearby People’s Assembly in an attempt to emulate the 6 April 2008 general strike and to protest Egypt's longstanding Emergency Law.  However, security forces brought the demonstrations to a halt.

Days before, the security forces had warned the 6^th of April Movement that the demonstration was a security threat: protests in Tahrir Square in the centre of Cairo effectively brings all of the city to a standstill. According to media reports in Egypt, ninety-three activists were arrested and ten police officers were injured.

Back to the "debate" in the People’s Assembly:

A meeting was held to discuss the human rights violations committed on 6 April.  Adding salt to the wound, a National Democratic Party (NDP) member Nassh’at al Qassas said, "I don’t know why the Interior Ministry is so lenient with protestors....Rather than using water hoses to disperse the crowd, the police ought to use live rounds to shoot them."

El-Qassas' NDP colleague, Ahmed Abu Aqrab, alleged that members of the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) parliamentary bloc had falsified reports about police violations to gain media coverage. The claim led to a fistfight between Abu Aqrab and MB parliamentarian Mohamed el-Biltagy.

Vulgar exchanges between the two parties continued, with Abu Aqrab claiming that the MB receive illegal funding from abroad, to which MB member el Biltagy responded, "What do you mean? I am better than you and the likes of you!"

Another Brotherhood MP, Hamdi Hassan, showed el-Qassas a shredded t-shirt that allegedly belonged to a protester who had participated in the 6 April demonstrations.  Heated discussions continued in the People’s Assembly and later became the main topic of the evening news discussion programmes.

Assistant Interior Minister Hamed Rashid said the law allowed police to employ force against anyone attempting to disrupt public order or attack security personnel. He added that those who attacked the security forces, who were there to "maintain calm", cannot be Egyptian patriots and therefore deserve what was coming to them.

The US State Department responded by renewing calls for democratic reform.  Spokesperson P. J. Crowley said, "All individuals must exercise their basic freedoms freely." He continued, "All Egyptians must play a genuine role in an open and transparent political process," adding that more people should be involved in the political system.

In a statement last week the US Government eliminated funding for civil society in Egypt:

Under the Obama Administration, the US government acquiesced to demands from Egypt and Bolivia to eliminate all funding for independent civil society and continues the policy of restricting U.S. assistance to groups to those that receive the approval of the Egyptian government.

Whilst the US government uses democratic reform as leverage for funding to Egypt, this is not the main cause for concern.  Civil groups continue to receive funding from other sources such as the Middle East Partnership Initiative and the State Department’s Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor.

The real worry is over three points: the enraged reaction in the People’s Assembly, hardly the action of role models in society; NDP members encouraging forces to use live rounds on their fellow Egyptian citizens in the name of "maintaining security’"; and the prospects of what might occur in the next influential protest.

EA's Big Volcano Vacation: Eastbound and Down (I Hope)

UPDATE 22 APRIL: I am due to make my dash for Britain this afternoon, going via Boston and Paris. If I'm successful, there will be a break in news until Friday afternoon; my thanks in advance to readers for keeping EA going through information and comments. And now, Mr Jerry Reed:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xnRwQjTYfGI[/youtube]


I'll be in the southeast of the US this week, bringing you all the inside news on baseball, stock car racing, and country music.

Updates on the Iran LiveBlog will be intermittent at times this week, but we'll still be bringing you important stories from Washington and around the world. EA staff will be minding the shop, and as usual, our readers will be bringing in information and ideas.

Iran's Nuclear Programme: The US Strategy

UPDATE 2100 GMT: Sometimes I wonder if a psychiatrist should just diagnose schizophrenia in the patient called the US Administration. Earlier today, we cited one "senior official" who said the US did not see an imminent threat from Tehran because of technical issues in its nuclear program. David Broder of The Washington Post, however, has a different "private" view from another official: "A senior administration official, dining with a small group of reporters two weeks ago, say that in his judgment, within a year to 18 months, after the diplomats have played out their hands at the United Nations, we will face a showdown with Iran."

Perhaps the two views can be reconciled with "no war now, maybe war later", but my impression is that yet again we have an Administration at war with itself over whether to talk to Iran or beat it over the head.

***

EA has learned that one of the Obama administration's most senior officials dealing with the Iran nuclear issue revealed the core of the US strategy at a private gathering in Washington this week.



Officially the US is still interested in the talks for "third-party enrichment" of Iran's uranium. However, Washington assessed that Iran has been able to enrich enough uranium since the autumn discussions that the amount being considered is superfluous. Washington, therefore, is less eager to pursue the deal.

(I find the statement somewhat curious, as the advantages of a deal are as much political --- getting an easing of US-Iran relations --- as they are technical. I sense there may be broader reasons for Washington's stall on talks.)

While pointing to Iran's enrichment of uranium, the official said Washington believes the "nuclear clock has slowed down significantly" because of technical difficulties in the enrichment program. (I suspect this may refer to the limitations on Iran's centrifuges.)

Therefore, the official said, "We have more time before the Israelis feel the need to take action."

(Some observers believe that comment indicates a tacit understanding in the administration that Israel will eventually reach the point of action and the U.S. will not stand in its way. My own reading is that the statement tries to take the heat out of the "Israeli dimension" by indicating there is no imminent threat to the Israelis from a militarised nuclear programme in Tehran.)