The Latest from Iran (12 August): Two Months Later

NEW Translation: Mousavi on Detentions, "Foreign Interference", and Islamic Republic (12 August)
NEW Spinning Israel's War of Words: The Times of London, Iran's Bombs, and Hezbollah
NEW Translated Text: The Indictment in the Tehran Trials
Iran Special Announcement: Supreme Leader Looking for (Facebook) Friends
The Latest from Iran (11 August): A Change in Prayers and a Pause


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2050 GMT: We've posted the English translation of Mir Hossein Mousavi's statement today. The text goes beyond our initial analysis (1700 GMT): this is a concerted and, in my opinion, clever attempt to turn the "foreign interference" charge back on the regime. It is the Government's actions such as detentions, propaganda, and lies, Mousavi says, that makes the Islamic Republic vulnerable to the manipulations of powers such as the United States.

1910 GMT: Ayatollah Ali Mohammad Dastghaib has asked for an emergency meeting of the Assembly of Experts, saying it is the duty of the Experts to the Iranian people "to maintain the Constitution".

1855 GMT: Mehdi Karroubi has responded to Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani's statement that he "wanted evidence" of  allegations of detainee abuse, contained in a letter from Karroubi to Hashemi Rafsanjani. A Karroubi spokesman said that information would be provided on the charges, which included rapes of women and young boys.

(A side note: it is now being claimed that state media exaggerated Larijani's statement when it said he called Karroubi's allegations of rape "a lie" --- see 0720 GMT.)

1840 GMT: Mahmoud is God. So says Ayatollah Mesbah-Yazdi, who told a gathering of "Basij Artists", "Once the President has received the investment from the Supreme eader, the holiness of the Supreme Leader is transferred to him as well, therefore people should obey the President as if they obey God."

1815 GMT: Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei, following up his criticism of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad yesterday, has said that if allegations of abuse of detainees are proven, "all the related officials should be dismissed and tried" on criminal charges.

1750 GMT: Saeed Mortazavi, the prosecutor in charge of the trials of those arrested during the post-election conflict, says the hearings for French national Clotilde Reiss have been completed, but her conviction and/or sentence has yet to be determined: "Reiss is still in jail but her trial is over and any decision on her release on bail or remaining in prison will be taken by the judge."


1735 GMT: An Iranian website has published the list of about 100 individuals who are banned from appearing on Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting. (No one from Enduring America is on the list...yet.)

1730 GMT: Mowj-e-Sabz, the website for the Green movement, carries the dramatic allegation that a member of the Guardian Council, in the presence of the Supreme Leader, testified to widespread "cheating" in the Presidential election.

1700 GMT: Back from break with partial question, asked in our initial update, about the next move of opposition leaders. Mir Hossein Mousavi's website, Ghalam News, has declared, "What happens in Iran's prisons these days clearly shows the necessity of a deep change in the country." The new twist is an attempt by Mousavi to turn the charges of "foreign interference" against the regime: "Could America harm Iran ... as much as these events in prisons have damaged the (1979 Islamic) revolution and the country?" (Reuters has a summary in English.)

1300 GMT: The Iranian Labor News Agency has given a guarded acknowledgement that all was not normal in the bazaar in Tehran today, referring to "the presence of security forces in the market". The article emphasised, "The market should be calm....A market with any gathering "is the opposite".

1100 GMT: Twitter reports on today's demonstration at the Central Bazaar in Tehran are offering a pattern of events common from earlier gatherings: mobile phone service cut off to hinder communication, police trying to prevent any mass grouping, and demonstrators shifting to other places.

0930 GMT: Fars News Agency reports that Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami will lead Friday prayers in Tehran. In his prayer addresses since 12 June, Khatami has taken a hard line regarding protestors, on one occasion threatening the death penalty, but has also criticised President Ahmadinejad.

0855 GMT: Shajarian Update. Good news for fans of the Iranian classical singer, who has refused to allow the broadcast of his songs on Iranian state media as a protest against President Ahmadinejad's depiction of the opposition as "dust". It seems that some of Shajarian's music will soon be available via the Internet.

0845 GMT: No confirmed information on size of protest at Central Bazaar in Tehran today, but Twitter chatter claims a significant turnout and a large presence of security forces. One live Farsi-language blog is claiming that Mir Hossein Mousavi's wife, Zahra Rahnavard, joined the demonstrators and that 80 percent of the Bazaar's shops are closed.

0800 GMT: Discussion is heating up on the latest statement of Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani, which is being seen by some as an open challenge to the ultimate authority of the Supreme Leader. Zahra Rahnavard's Facebook page offers this summary: "The Supreme Leader other than being fair should also obey the constitution and comply with the Assembly of Experts and as soon as he loses these conditions will automatically loses [sic] his position."

0735 GMT: It has been officially announced that, as expected, Mohammad Sadeq Larijani (the brother of Speaker of the Parliament, Ali Larijani) will replace Ayatollah Mahmoud Shahroudi as head of Iran's judiciary on 15 August. Mohammad Sadeq Larijani is a member of the Assembly of Experts and of the Guardian Council; another Larijani brother, Mohammad Javad, is head of the judiciary's human rights division.


0730 GMT: Fintan Dunne in Sea of Green Radio offers an interesting analysis of Iran's release, on bail, of the French-Iranian national and French Embassy employee Nazak Afshar: "Repression of the type which the Iranian regime is attempting requires both brute force and political...savvy. The brutality has been on vivid display, but the savvy tellingly absent."

0720 GMT: Larijani Walks the Tightrope. The Speaker of the Parliament, Ali Larijani, is quoted by the Islamic Republic News Agency, in response to the claims in Mehdi Karroubi's letter to Hashemi Rafsanjani, ""The issue of detainees being sexually abused is a lie. Following an investigation of detainees in Kahrizak and Evin prisons, no cases of rape and sexual abuse were found."

The denial comes only a day after Larijani called for a Parliamentary investigation of the treatment of detainees, and the Speaker has also been in the lead in requesting other enquiries into the behaviour of security forces.

Analysis? On the one hand, Larijani wants to maintain some authority for the Iranian Parliament, the Majlis, and thus some pressure on the Government. On the other, he does not want to lose control of those investigations, especially not to the Green opposition.

0705 GMT: We have just posted an English translation and a brief analysis of the indictment in the Tehran trials of almost 100 detainees.

0645 GMT: Another Warning for Ahmadinejad. Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei, following the firing of the Minister of Intelligence and more than 20 other officials in the Ministry, has criticised, “The personnel of the ministries of foreign affairs, intelligence and defense … are not suddenly fired or retired in any country as such a move would create many doubts.”

Significantly, given the Parliamentary pressure on the President,  the warning from Rezaei, who is Secretary of the Expediency Council, was sent in a letter to Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani.

0600 GMT: Two months ago, a Presidential election was held in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Three hours after the polls closed, the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, declared President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad the victor with almost two-thirds of the vote.

Today that President, who was finally inaugurated a week ago, still struggles to establish his authority. On Tuesday, the "principlist" bloc, the largest in Iran's Parliament with 202 of 490 representatives, wrote a letter to Ahmadinejad insisting that his choices for Ministerial posts must have "experience and expertise". The letter comes after a day after the President had to hold an emergency meeting over the principlists amidst criticism of several of his selections for high-profile offices.

And the opposition two months later? It is still very much present, though in what numbers and what forces is unclear. After the setback of Hashemi Rafsanjani's withdrawal from Friday prayers in Tehran, activists in the Green movement is trying to rally today with marches to central bazaars in major cities. The first protests are scheduled for 10 a.m. local time (0630 GMT). The leaders of that movement have been relatively low-key in recent days, apart from Mehdi Karroubi's attempts to press for movement on the detainees issue. I

And the Supreme Leader? Well, he apparently now has his own Facebook page.

Translation: Mousavi on Detentions, "Foreign Interference", and Islamic Republic (12 August)

The Latest from Iran (12 August): Two Months Later

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Speaking to the Central Committee for organising reforms, Mir Hossein Mousavi, in the context of criticism of the newspaper Keyhan for its savage attack upon Mehdi Karroubi, said:

I believe that even if the US had used all of its might, it could not have inflicted a greater damage to the country and the Islamic revolution than [the horrific events] happening in the detention centers....Isn't Keyhan by positioning the cultured and intellectual class against the establishment, acting in concert with foreign powers as it is displaying an enmity towards the establishment similar to that of the doubters [the People's Mujahedin] and maintaining the interests of the US and the UK?

...The greatest falsehood was misrepresenting the natural desire of the public for reform as foreign interference....If we study
carefully we shall see that no one has served foreign interests more assiduously than those claiming that the reform movement was inspired by foreign interference....Does the US prefer your broadcasting medium to be a fair and reputable source or for it to lose its reputation by repeating falsehoods?...Are those who ask the IRIB to be fair and transparent working in the interests of foreigners or [is it] those who have forced the people to seek news from foreign media?...Isn't attacking
Karroubi...the best service that can be made to foreign interests?

Mousavi concluded his speech by praying for the freedom of the imprisoned political activists.

Translated Text: The Indictment in the Tehran Trials

The Latest from Iran (12 August): Two Months Later

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From Evan Siegel in Iran Rises, translating the indictment originally published in Fars News. Siegel's initial comment is that much of the "evidence" appears to rely on Hossein Derakhshan, the blogger detained in November 2008 and initially accused of spying for Israel and the US. Whether or not this is the case, Siegel's subsequent note that this indictment reads like "whistling past the graveyard", with the prosecutor "knowing full well...that the precise opposite of what he is saying is true" is on target. Indeed, it reinforces our analysis the day after the first trial, "The indictment and presentation of charges offered no evidence of substantive criminal acts....The “foreign plot” scenario [is] almost laughable, turn[ing] US-based academics into directors of an Iranian insurgency."

In the name of Allah, the Merciful, the Compassionate

The text of the Tehran judiciary’s charges against the defendants in the defeated project for a velvet coup:

“When We make mankind taste of some mercy after adversity has touched them Behold! they take to plotting against our Signs! Say: “Swifter to plan is Allah!” Verily Our messengers record all the plots that you make!” (Koran, Yunos 21)

Honorable President of the Tehran Islamic Revolutionary Court,

Peace be on you.

As you have been apprised, the wise Leader of the revolution, with his Imam-like wisdom, stated that the aware nation of Islamic Iran has created an astonishing and unprecedented epic by their unusual presence at the ballot boxes during the elections for the tenth term of the presidency, which showed the Iranian nation’s political maturity, revolutionary, powerful and civil capacity, and determined visage in a beautiful and glorious display before the eyes of the world.

Any fair-minded person could comfortably witness the great accomplishments of this huge epic in various political, cultural, social, and economic dimensions on the domestic and international level.

First, these elections have been transformed into a display of true democracy which inspires pride and it brought a message to the world that the Islamic Republic of Iran is one of the safest and most stable countries for investment and advancing economic projects.

Second, in the realm of international relations, this vast national support increases the power of bargaining for and winning the legitimate rights of the sovereign people of Islamic Iran to a high level and has raised our country’s success in the region and the world to silence [literally, to cut out the tongues of] those who make lying claims about freedom, democracy, and human rights. And so, these Iranian statesmen and masters of diplomacy can from now on, can perform their roles on the regional and world stage and in exchanges with the countries of the world with an increasing decisiveness and based on wisdom, splendor, and the nation’s interests better than ever.

Third, the deep impact of this conscious presence on the way the people of the world, particularly its outstanding personalities, look at the Iranian people’s rich culture and political feelings, which arise out of their Islamic and revolutionary beliefs, has more than ever drawn the attention of the nations’ public opinion to the efficacy of the model of religious democracy.

Fourth, since popular support is considered one of the most important ingredients of the national security of the sacred Islamic Republican system, the participation of 85% of the people in the elections has indubitably played an irreplaceable role in the stabilization of the foundations of national security, the government which appeared from this enthusiastic and passionate majority will be more powerful than in the past on the domestic, regional, and international scene, and this power will be as a vast national wealth in solving domestic and foreign problems and increasing and advancing our dear Islamic country more each day.

The defeated and despondent enemy immediately went into action and set off a chain of chaos and riots in Tehran through the mobilization of its propagandist, political, and local agents. Our dear compatriots suffered many losses of life, property, and mental health as a result. According to documents which we have obtained and the confirmed confessions of the accused, the occurrence of these events was completely planned in advance and proceeded according to a timetable and the stages of a velvet coup in such a way that more than 100 of the 198 events were executed in accordance with the instructions of Gene Sharp for a velvet coup.
Honorable president of the court.

A velvet coup is a kind of coup which has the same goals of a military coup but totally different in methods and means.
In this connection, Mr. Robert Helvey, a retired CIA officer and a student of Dr. Gene Sharp, writes in his book titled On Strategic Nonviolent Conflict: Thinking About the Fundamentals, “Non-violent conflict [i.e., that same velvet coup—Mojtaba] does not have any special difference with military conflict except that the weapon used in it is different and unique to this technique.” [not from the original]
Another of the differences between a velvet coup and a military coup is in the way it is formed from start to finish and its long duration, which can at times last a decade or more.

The most important point which must be noted concerning a velvet coup is that the theoreticians bought by the West’s spy and intelligence services have developed this method at the orders of their commanders to get World Arrogance out of its practical dead end by overthrowing independent systems or systems which are not in alignment with the West’s hegemony and lust for domination. It is the result of years of research and fieldwork in various coup-prone countries. This technique of fomenting coups is so planned out that by employing so-called civil and long-term methods, it can stealthily and quietly complete the stages of the velvet revolution without attracting serious attention among the people or the political systems of the countries. By the time the political systems come to their senses, the velvet coup has usually reached its final stage and the probability of its success has greatly increased.

Years ago, numerous foundations and institutions came into existence through the Western countries’ spy agencies and other governmental institutions which, through a division of organizational labor and concentration on various missions, were tasked with the joint purpose of implementing a velvet coup project. The most important of these institutions and foundations are the Soros Foundation (the Open Society Institute), the Rockefeller Institute, the Ford Foundation, the German Marshall Fund, Freedom House, the American Council on Foreign Relations, the German Council on Foreign Relations, and the Centre for Democracy Studies of Britain.

In further elucidating this issue, it is necessary to point to the statements of a spy who is now in detention and who had returned to Iran with the aim of fulfilling a role in the elections for the tenth term of the presidency.

He says, “In the voyage I made to Israel, I became familiar with an institution called MEMRI which belongs to the United States, but is based in Israel and whose mission it is to monitor the Middle Eastern media. This institution’s task is to struggle against anti-Israeli activities which are arising in other countries. It pursues a project whose goal is to support the reformists in the Islamic world, including Iran. The man in charge of this project is an old intelligence officer in the Israeli army whom I visited. In this meeting, he told me, ‘Our task is to nourish and spread the ideas of thinkers like Abdol-Karim Sorush in Iran.’”

This spy continued, “Another of these active institutions is the Dutch agency HYFUS [?], with whose officers I had meetings. This institution had good relations with institutions and NGOs inside Iran and even spent 10 million Euros towards the end of Khatami’s presidency in Iran, most of which was given to the women’s movement. HYFUS got its budget from bribes from Dutch oil companies which wanted to evade paying taxes.”

Concerning Radio Free Europe, the above-mentioned said, “Radio Free Europe, like many of the soft coup institutions, began its work during the Cold War and are connected with the CIA. During the Cold War, the Americans used politics, culture, and media and the cover of beautiful words like democracy and freedom and human rights to pressure the Soviets. Many of the institutions which are active at present in the field of soft coups are left over from that time, and Radio Free Europe is of this type. The Persian section of this radio is active under the name Radio Farda. This radio covers [uses the word “pushesh”, a literal translation of an American idiom] many of the protests and vastly exaggerates them.”

This spy continued, discussing another of the soft coup institutions called the Berkman [Center], saying, “Global Voices is under the purview of an institution called the Berkman Center in Harvard University. This project began in 2004 and I participated in its first meeting in Harvard. The goal of this project was to concentrate on all the bloggers of the world, especially the anti-American countries like Iran, to be able to achieve its purposes, i.e., to bring about a psychological war in these countries.

“The Soros Foundation, which contributes to most NGOs, provided financial backing for this project. This project’s manager is someone named Ethan Zuckerman. He is an American who had previously worked in the Soros Foundation. He has worked hard on using the internet for soft coups in various countries and also has ties with American security-intelligence institutes.”

He continued, “The Berkman Center is managed by someone named John Palfrey, who himself claims that his uncle is Kermit Roosevelt, who organized the 28 Mordad Coup.”

The above-mentioned added, referring to America’s role in planning soft coups, “America uses various theoreticians to plan soft coups, such as Gene Sharp, who spent fifty years of his life in his foundation to plan how to make know governments’ weak points for a soft coup. This foundation’s website offers instructions in some twenty to thirty¹ of the living languages of the world in the methods of peaceful resistance. Of course, these languages are not German, French, or Spanish, but Burmese, Chinese, Arabic, Persian, etc., languages which the Americans would love the countries in to have soft revolution.²

“Other people, such as Mark Palmer, the president of the Konos Foundation,³ have also done much research about Iran. Two or three years ago, he even organized classes and directly invited activists of the 2 Khordad movement like Amad Baqi, and taught them the stages of a soft coup.”

Honorable President of the Court.

So far, the velvet coup project has been implemented in several countries and has generally been successful, from Georgia, Poland, the Czech Republic, Croatia, Serbia, the Ukraine, and Kirgizstan. In most of these countries, the velvet coups came in the form of an election and have much in common with the project of the defeated velvet coup of Iran, whose final stage was set off under the excuse of the elections to the tenth term of the presidency. Of course, this conspiracy was crushed thanks to the awake and ever-present people’s alertness and our country’s powerful security and policy institutions’ decisive and timely treatment.

The arrested spy answered the question, “What model did America use for the velvet coup in Iran,” by saying: “This model was based on elections and began at least two years before the elections were held. They first begin with a plan and choose a candidate for themselves. For example, Mr. [Mikheil] Saakashvili, the current president of Georgia, has without a doubt not simply emerged in the world of politics. Rather, he received money from Fulbright, which is associated with the American Foreign Ministry. He has studied for years in this country and was trained for these days. After determining the candidate they want, they pour vast sums of social capital on him. In this way, supporters of this candidate set about educating the people through a network, with the trademark Gold Quest, which is a standard way of recruiting to campaigns. After this stage, they choose a graphic and color for this candidate and begin to prepare public opinion to vote for him. On the other hand, they prepare themselves before the elections so that if they lose, they begin to cast doubts upon the elections and announce that there had been fraud and bring the government’s legitimacy under question and begin to hold strikes and, ultimately, have the elections nullified or have the elections held again under international supervision, in which their candidate will win.”

The above-mentioned continued, “This has been done in Georgia, Serbia, Ukraine, and Croatia and succeeded. It is worth noting that the same educational texts which were used in Serbia have been translated into Persian and used in Iran with minor changes.⁴ These matters depend on the society’s culture, customs, and religion. The most important factor for executing this revolution is the youth, who are a good investment. They count on the youth’s energy, since they are the only people who devote two or three months of their lives without money for the sake of elections.”

He added, “Iran’s velvet revolution is very similar to the Serbian velvet revolution. In that country, a student group called the Otpor [Resistance] began recruiting, which is very similar to the Green Wave in Iran. In the educational brochure which is posted on the Albert Einstein [Institution] site, under the title of “Difficult situation” which covers the issues of the greatest strategic importance that places governments in the position in which they cannot confront the protesters. It says that the protests must be put under the cover of religious customs and activities like street processions must be held which no government can restrain. Ultimately, this educational brochure points to several frames of an educational film about the Serbian revolution which is even dubbed in Persian and posted on the web site.⁵

There is another brochure about how to seize a city’s sensitive locations and buildings. In it, it teaches protest groups how to take over important centers.

It is necessary here to indicate an important point in the court’s presence. The educational film about the Serbian velvet coup which had been translated into Persian was edited and read by someone named Nader Seddiqi.⁶ He is someone who first introduced Mr. Tajbakhsh to Messrs. Hajarian and Tajzadeh. Mr. Tajbakhsh said of Mr. Nader Seddiqi’s role, “It is not clear to me what Mr. Nader Seddiqi’s role was and who introduced me to him and at whose instructions he was responsible for having me meet with Messrs. Hajarian and Tajzadeh.” At the present time, the afore-mentioned [Nader Seddiqi] is a fugitive.

This arrested spy, whose name we do not mention out of security considerations, believes that a soft coup or that same velvet coup has three arms: intellectual, media, and executive. He explains as follows: “Each of the velvet coup’s arms are in contact with a number of American foundations and institutions, and indeed there has been a division of labor.”

He said in this connection, “In the coup triangle (the intellectual, the media, and the executive arms) each American institution performs a special activity and cooperates with a group of people in Iran. The most important of them is an institution called the Hoover Institution which is under the supervision of Stanford University and was formed in the context of the Cold War.

This foundation has a project called Democracy in Iran on its agenda, which is under the supervision of three security elements named Abbas Milani, Larry Diamond, and Michael McFaul.

Abbas Milani was arrested during the time of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi for activity in leftist groups. He then turned into an enthusiastic monarchist so that after living in Iran for a year or two after the revolution, he left the country for America where he wrote a number of books in which he praised the Pahlavi regime’s accomplishments. He gradually turned into one of the opposition’s leaders who was distinguished in this basic way from the rest: his relationship with domestic reformist elements.

This arrested spy added, “The Iran Democracy Project works on the Iranian people’s popular culture, like music, blogs, and sexual issues.

“The student wing of this foundation is very active and people like Ms. [Fatemeh] Haghighatjoo, Arash Naraghi (from Kian’s [corrected by Ramin Jahanbegloo; thanks] clique and close to Sorush) make speeches in their conferences. Within Iran, too, people who are close to the Executives of Construction Party cooperate with this institute. For example, [Mohammad] Atrianfar, in every magazine or newspaper in which he works, interviews Abbas Milani under cover of his being a historian. Abbas Milani’s importance for the CIA is greater than even Reza Pahlavi’s, since he has good relations with the reformists; he even maintains all of Akbar Ganji’s financial expenses outside the country.”⁷

Footnotes

1 Actually, 40.
2 It includes the languages of a number of American allies–Azerbaijani (in the Latin-based alphabet favored in the Republic of Azerbaijan), Danish, Dutch, French, German, Hebrew, Italian, Latvian, Norwegian, Polish, Spanish, and Swedish.
3 We have found no reference to such a foundation in any of his biographies.
4 This is the first I have heard about these pamphlets…
5 Since an article by the 9/11 “truther” Thierry Meyssan, the proprietor of Voltaire Net, appeared, more or less fringe figures in the cybersphere have followed Meyssan in attacking it. The Einstein Institution issued a (fairly tepid) statement by Dr. Sharp defending himself. A statement signed by such progressive luminaries as Howard Zinn and Noam Chomsky rejected the charges. For a list of some of the back and forth on this issue, see the Source Watch article on the Albert Einstein Institution. For a powerful and convincing rejoinder to the Institution’s critics, see this piece in the Huffington Post.
6 Extrapolating from a brief biography presented about him in the pro-government Fars News Agency website, he used to be in charge of preparing government bulletins about the People’s Mojahedin. He became disillusioned when Said Hajarian, one of the founders of the Ministry of Intelligence, was assassinated. He later gravitated, according to Fars News Agency, to Abol-Hasan Bani-Sadr.
7 I have no independent information about much of what is said in this article in general and the last paragraph in particular. As for Prof. Milani financing Mr. Ganji, if the former has indeed پول داد از جیب فتوت, show some generosity, it only raises him a little in my estimation and does nothing to discredit Mr. Ganji, who I know for certain lives a meager darvish’s existence.

The Latest from Iran (11 August): A Change in Prayers and a Pause

NEW Iran Special Announcement: Supreme Leader Looking for (Facebook) Friends
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Truth and Reconciliation in/for Iran? A Roundtable Discussion
The Latest on Iran (10 August): Threats and Concessions
More Iran Drama: Will Rafsanjani Lead This Friday’s Prayers?
Iran: The Karroubi Letter to Rafsanjani on Abuse of Detainees

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2015 GMT: Lots of Twitter chatter about a demonstration for the Central Bazaar in Tehran, and bazaars in other Iranian cities, at 10 a.m. local time tomorrow.

1650 GMT: Speaking of the Revolutionary Guard. Here is the article which caused so much fuss this weekend, and which we have been covering extensively, by Yudollah Javani in the Guards' house journal. It concludes with the call for the judiciary to pursue the arrests of "ringleaders" of demonstrations such as Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mohammad Khatami, and Mehdi Karroubi.

1620 GMT: Stepping Up Pressure, But On Whom. The commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, General Mohammad Ali Jafari, has called for "confronting soft threats in all the cultural, economic, political and social arenas": "IRGC's strategy for confrontation with soft threats comprises preventative measures, full intelligence information on the type of a given threat and the time of its occurrence and plans for preventing its occurrence and formation."

Jafari added that the IRGC is preparing its infrastructure for confronting military, hard, and soft threats, with the battle against soft threats delegated to the Basiji militia.

Yet what is meant to appear as a tough statement against the foreign-inspired "velvet revolution" may also be a tactical retreat. Jafari did not repeat the threats, issued by other IRGC outlets, of arrests of opposition leaders.

And, in what appears to be a coordinated public relations assault, the commander of the Basiji, Hojjatoleslam Hossein Taeb has warned, in an address to his forces, "The enemy always strives to hinder unity among the (Iranian) people and seeks to attain its devilish goals through sowing discord as a means of soft threat."

Taeb was not as careful as Jafari to limit his comments at the foreign menace, "The enemy stepped into the scene of the presidential election...to achieve its goals by means of its agents and elements in Iran."

1555 GMT: Press TV Turns Up the Heat on Mahmoud. Not one but two stories on Press TV English's website sound a warning to President Ahmadinejad. First, it carried the story, which we revealed yesterday in a special analysis, that the President had to scurry to a meeting with more than 200 members of "principlist" majority bloc in Parliament because of challenges to his Cabinet choices.

Then, four minutes, another article reported that senior "reformist" MP Mostafa Kavakebyan had demanded in Parliament that Ahmadinejad report on "constitutional violations" during the post-election conflict: "It is the duty of the President to pursue such issues. However, the president has made no move in this regard.” The same article mentioned the submission to Parliament by the Mousavi campaign of the numbers of protestors killed and detained.

1550 GMT: From the Asosciated Press: "President Nicolas Sarkozy's office says a French Embassy employee on trial in Iran has been freed from prison. A statement says Sarkozy has spoken with Nazak Afshar since her release."

However, the statement also indicated that French national Clotilde Reiss is still being held and implied that Afshar has been bailed and still faces prosecution: "Sarkozy also wants the charges against Afshar, a French-Iranian citizen, to be dropped."

1450 GMT: There is still some confusion over Hashemi Rafsanjani and Friday prayers in Tehran. Khabar Online adds two comments to the official statement of Rafsanjani. The first is from Mohammad Hashemi-Rafsanjani, who pleaded ignorance of his brother's position. The second is from a close relative who insisted on remaining anonymous: "Mr. Rafsanjani has not completely made up his mind about his presence in the Friday prayers....The current conditions are special conditions that require Mr. Rafsanjani to re-evaluate his decision."

1430 GMT: We've split off this morning's first update as a special analysis, "Sifting Through Rafsanjani's Decision".

1420 GMT: A very slow day on news front, but reports that some detainees are being released, albeit with high bails. Amir Hossein Shemshadi, a member of the Green 88 campaign, was freed after $50,000 was posted; photographer Majid Saeedi put up $120,000.

1050 GMT: More on the Revolutionary Guards' Threats. Siavush Randjbar-Daemi, who is featured in today's roundtable discussion on "Truth and Reconciliation in/for Iran?", has published a useful overview of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps' warnings of possible arrests of opposition leaders. The article is in the Italian newspaper Il Messaggero, but for those who don't know Italian, the general sense can be picked up through Google Translate.

0920 GMT: Who's Trashing Larijani? The pro-Ahmadinejad Raja News claimed yesterday that Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani called Mir Hossein Mousavi on the phone "in the afternoon of the elections day" to congratulate him on his imminent win.

The article criticizes Larijani for acting irresponsibly, given that he had access to confidential information. In addition, it cases doubt on the legitimacy of Larijani's doctorate.

0900 GMT: Reuters reports, via Sarmayeh in Iran, the statement of Alireza Beheshti, chief advisor to Mir Hossein Mousavi, "The names of 69 people who were killed in post-election unrest ... were submitted to Parliament for investigation. The report also included the names of about 220 detainees."

Judiciary spokesman Alireza Jamshidi said at a separate press conference that more than 4000 protesters were arrested in demonstrations after 12 June, "but 3,700 of them were released in the first week after their arrest.

0815 GMT: We've just posted a challenging in-depth discussion amongst four specialist Iran-watchers on "truth and reconciliation", in light of an open letter from 31 academics to The Guardian of London.

0800 GMT: Media Silence. This is eerie. No one is noticing Rafsanjani's official announcement. CNN International's last Iran story is from more than 24 hours ago, on the Revolutionary Guard's threat to arrest opposition leaders. BBC English posted yesterday morning on the Karroubi letter to Rafsanjani, as did Al Jazeera English.

Iran: Sifting Through Rafsanjani's Decision

The Latest from Iran (11 August): Rafsanjani’s Decision

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UPDATE 1800 GMT: The Iranian Labor News Agency reports that Hashemi Rafsanjani, meeting with an attorneys' organisation today, emphasised the protection of the rights of defendants. Press TV is playing up the story, "Rafsanjani Demands Prisoner Rights amid Accusations [of Mistreatment", with the extract from his statement, “Judgment...as well as the rights of the accused can provide guarantees for the presence of justice in the final verdict.”

After a day of confusion and speculation, former Hashemi Rafsanjani confirmed publicly this morning, in a brief statement on his website, that he will not lead Friday prayers in Tehran “to avoid possible conflict”.

The immediate reading of the decision, as well as the politics around it, is that my Enduring America colleagues got it right in our last update yesterday. Rafsanjani had made his decision 24 hours ago but held back from confirmation while there was a battle over how it would be presented. Those behind the regime, both within the system (the head of the Friday Prayers Committee) and in the media, quickly put out the line that Rafsanjani had stepped down because of the threat of opposition manipulation of the event. The former President’s advisors countered by implying that he withdrew because of the threat of violence, as security forces tried to prevent a mass gathering around the prayer site.

That publicity contest will play out today, but I think it is already surpassed by the fallout from this decision. This is a blow for the opposition movement, even as President Ahmadinejad struggles and possibly sinks, and it may mark a re-arrangement of the forces in the post-election conflict.

First, the immediate winner. Step up, Supreme Leader.

The fear of Khamenei has always been that Rafsanjani would work closely with the leaders and protestors of the Green movement. That is why he paid special attention to the former President in his Friday Prayers address of 19 June, trying to split off Rafsanjani from those irresponsibility challenging the election result. Initially, Rafsanjani did remain quiet, waiting more than two weeks before making a guarded statement, as the conflict was defined between the Green Wave and the regime.

Then two events occurred. In mid-July, a group of “hard-line” clerics tried to take Rafsanjani out of the picture, attempting to remove him from leadership of the Assembly of Experts. That effort backfired badly, with other clerics rallying around Rafsanjani. The former President did lead Friday prayers on 17 July, bringing a massive opposition rally to the site and on the streets. And his address was no longer so guarded — this was a challenge to the position of President Ahmadinejad and a criticism of the system that Ayatollah Khamenei was leading.

The 17 July address boosted the Green movement, as it found the energy for new demonstrations, and it gave support to a growing number of secular and religious figures — not just from the movement but from “principlist” and “conservative” factions — focusing on the Government’s use of violence and detentions. The inauguration of Ahmadinejad became a peripheral event. More importantly, there was talk that the Supreme Leader’s ultimate authority might be challenged.

The fear for the regime must have been that Rafsanjani’s appearance this Friday, even if his words were again guarded, would give the platform for a confrontation which is no longer about the 12 June result but about the legitimacy of the current system. That has now been removed. The Supreme Leader again has a “breathing space” amidst the ongoing political manoeuvres.

Second, the opposition. The post-election challenge has always been two halves of a walnut. One half has been the public show of anger over the current situation and of hope that changes could be made. The other half has been the less dramatic, often behind-the-scenes political manoeuvres.

Rafsanjani’s importance has been not so much that he is part of that public movement but that, as a former President and current head of the Assembly of Experts and Expediency Council, he is a key member of the Establishment. He had a political base not available to Mehdi Karroubi, Mir Hossein Mousavi, or even former President Mohammad Khatami. And his own resumé, as an Ayatollah and a long-time political leader, brings together the clerical and secular dimensions within the Islamic Republic.

So before 17 July, the former President was a potential symbol bringing together the two halves of the challenge and, after 17 July, he was a very real force galvanising resistance. Opposition leaders and protestors have to confront the cold fact this morning that this may no longer be the case.

There was an incident this week which pointed to this difficulty. Two days ago, Mehdi Karroubi’s advisors published a letter from the Presidential candidate to Rafsanjani that had been written at the end of July. Karroubi had asked Rafsanjani to pursue an enquiry into the abuses of detainees, giving graphic examples. Apparently the former President never replied, so on Monday the letter was posted in the newspaper of Karroubi’s party. The underlying question to Rafsanjani was now on the surface: are you really with us?

In the short term, the reactions of Mousavi, Karroubi, Khatami, and other leading politicians and clerics will be worth watching. In the longer term, however, the response will have to go beyond these leaders, just as it has to move beyond Rafsanjani: can the movement find the strength and the occasion for another public display of opposition?

And finally (for now), Rafsanjani. Had this been any other politician stepping down, the headline would be “Defeat”. When Rafsanjani skipped his turn in the rota for Friday prayers on two occasions in June/July, he did so from a position of control, considering his next moves. This time, the withdrawal looks like it was forced upon him by the regime.

This, however, is not any other politician. This is Rafsanjani, one of the prominent figures in (and for almost all of) post-1979 Iranian politics. This is a man who, even after his defeat by Ahmadinejad in the 2005 election, has continued to inspire admiration from his supporters and fear from his opponents. This is “The Shark”.

So what is his move? Personally, I’m not sure that he can mend relations with the leaders of the Green movement. So is his manoeuvre, including this withdrawal, an indication that he is positioning for compromise with leaders within the system, including the Supreme Leader? Is there an expectation that, with a possibly terminally wounded President, there may be a space for Rafsanjani to move again for even higher offices than the ones he now occupies? Or, for once, did he simply get wrong-footed and pushed into a defensive reaction, one where he will have to reconsider his position?