Iran: Is the Challenge to the Regime Alive? Pressure on the Supreme Leader

The Latest from Iran (14 August): Just Another Prayer Day?

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The intrigues over the Karroubi-Rafsanjani initiative on detainee, in itself, is an uncertainty to dominate political discussion for days, but attention to it has hidden a second development that may be just as significant. We noted yesterday that an organisation representing hundreds of former members of Parliament had written Rafsanjani calling for ""reviews of the activities and performance of Iranian institutions, security and military forces, and the judicial system in recent events”.

That summary was crucially incomplete. The full translation is "to review of the activities and performance of all Iranian institutions that operate under the direct supervision of the Supreme Leader including security and military forces, and the judicial system during the recent events”.

There you have it. This would not just be an examination of the Iranian system but of Ayatollah Khamenei's actions and role within it. The letter bluntly states:

Contrary to other political systems that absolve their leadership from responsibility, in the Islamic Republic of Iran according to Law Number 107 of the Constitution the Supreme Leader is equal to any other citizen, and according to law the Supreme Leader must assume responsibility for his actions due to his Supreme Leadership.

According to Law Number 57, all three branches of government act under the Supreme Leader, we are therefore asking you as the head of the Assembly of Experts to ensure that the Assembly performs its duty as delineated by Law Number 111 and review of the activities and performance of all Iranian institutions that operate under the direct supervision of the supreme leader including security and military forces, and the judicial system during the recent events.

it is the invocation of "Law Number 111" that raises the red flag to Khamenei. The full text of the clause:

Whenever the Supreme Leader is unable to perform his duties or it is ascertained that he does not currently meet one of the conditions [for Leadership] in laws 5 and 109 (or it is demonstrated that he did not have these
conditions from the beginning) he can be set aside and it is the job of the Assembly of Experts to ascertain this issue.

OK, but these are just former members of Parliament, right? Well, consider a second development --- largely missed by the media --- that we noted last Wednesday and then highlighted in our first update yesterday. Ayatollah Ali Mohammad Dastgheib, a member of the Assembly of Experts, called for an emergency meeting to review the political and legal situation. His statement was a blunt challenge to the performance of Ayatollah Khamenei, the equivalent of asking "Law Number 111" to be implemented.

I concluded yesterday, "Dastgheib’s initiative...is more about keeping up pressure than raising the likelihood of a majority Assembly vote against the Iranian leadership." After the statement of the former MPs, however, an EA colleague asserts, "This is the greatest challenge to Khamenei ever."

I'm not ready to go that far yet. But as this crisis has already shown --- repeatedly --- ripples turn into waves.

Iran: Is the Challenge to the Regime Alive? Karroubi, Rafsanjani, and Detainees

The Latest from Iran (14 August): Just Another Prayer Day?

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The immediate significance of Mehdi Karroubi's letter, as it passed from Karroubi to Secretary of Parliament Ali Larijani and then, via Hashemi Rafsanjani, to the head of Iran's judiciary was that it kept the detainee issue at the top of the political agenda. But, of course, what lies behind that issue is the extent of the challenge to the Iranian system. And there uncertainty arises.

Foremost among these are the plans of Hashemi Rafsanjani, who was supposed to be leading Friday prayers today. I find it extremely difficult to read the former President, whose political moves can be very intricate. So my initial framing of his role yesterday as a "messenger" passing the Karroubi letter to judiciary head Ayatollah Shahroudi --- with its conclusion that Rafsanjani had now been "contained" in this crisis --- was off the mark.

EA colleagues have raised two very different possibilities. The first is that Rafsanjani is having to show great caution because the regime is increasing its pressure on him. Here, the assertion that the former President would have been arrested if he had led Friday prayers is an unhelpful exaggeration. Instead, the hints are that the Government will investigate charges of corruption, beginning with members of Rafsanjani's family. This hint has been around before and after the election, and it resurfaces at times --- such as this week --- when the regime is feeling pressure.

That, however, points to a second explanation. Rafsanjani who is maintaining his challenge to the system but in more subtle ways. His passing of the Karroubi letter to Shahroudi, as we noted in our last updates yesterday, could be seen as a powerful signal that the former President was slapping down the head of the judiciary for the regime's inaction and letting him know that something would now be done. Shahroudi accepted that signal and responded that there would be an investigation of the detainee issue, beginning with examination of Karroubi's allegations.

Shahroudi, however, leaves office tomorrow, to be replaced by Mohammad Sadegh Larijani. Larijani is known as a "hard-liner"; at the same time, he is disliked by President Ahmadinejad's supporters, to the extent that they have tried to block his appointment this week by spreading the story that he told the Supreme Leader of widespread "cheating" in the election.

So another uncertainty can be added: how seriously will the judiciary pursue the Karroubi letter? The same question, when put to the Parliament, got the inconclusive reply of another Larijani, Speaker of the Parliament Ali, that he needed to see  more evidence. If the judiciary follows suit, then the next moves in this lengthening chess match are up to Karroubi and Rafsanjani.

Video: Debating the Election, Protest, and the Tehran Trials (Marandi, Mossavat, and Tisdall)

On Tuesday, Al Jazeera English's Inside Story considered the post-election crisis in Iran, beginning with the trials of almost 100 detainees, with Dr Seyed Mohammad Marandi of the University of Tehran and journalists Shahab Mossavat and Simon Tisdall. Because of restrictions of the media in Iran and the unwillingness of many commentators to appear on Press TV English, it is one of the few in recent weeks that I have seen between an Iran-based specialist and analysts in the "West":

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fD_r-QFNYlU[/youtube]

Two Months On: All Our Videos From Iran's Post-Election Conflict

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We're not sure we expected, when we began rolling coverage of the post-election crisis in Iran, that we would still be going two months later. Well, the crisis continues, and so do we. We've amassed a huge collection of videos,  including speeches, TV appearances, and many, many protests. Below are links to all of our video posts from the past two months, in chronological order. (Please note: some videos may be unavailable in your country, and some may no longer be available at all.)

If we've missed a video you think is important, do let us know. And thanks to all of you for reading and working with us.

June:

• The Protests in and Beyond Tehran (12-18 June)

• Protests Spread to Shiraz and Mashhad

• The Moment of Truth? Mousavi’s Speech at Saturday’s Protests

• The “Neda” Protests (20-23 June)

July:

• U2’s Concert Song for Iran


• The Father’s Day Protest (6 July)


• The 18 Tir Protests (9 July)


• Sohrab Arabi Funeral (13 July)


• Mousavi, Rahnavard with Sohrab Arabi’s Family (14 July)


• Ahmadinejad Failure in Mashaad? (16 July)


• The Rafsanjani Prayer Address (17 July)


• Cleric Tabatabai Criticises Ahmadinejad on State TV (20 July)


• The Protests Continue (21-22 July)


• Zahra Rahnavard, Vanak Square Protests


• The Nighttime Protest (27 July)


• Mousavi Speech, Nighttime Protests (27-29 July)


• The “40th Day” Memorial (30 July)


• The “40th Day” Memorial (30 July – Part 2)

August:

• Abtahi “Confession”, Roohul Amini, and the Tehran Trial (2-3 August)


• Khamenei-Ahmadinejad “Non-Kiss” and Tehran Protests (3 August)


• The Inauguration Protests (5-6 August)


• Extracts from Tehran Trials (8 August)

The Latest from Iran (13 August): The Challenge Rebuilds

The Latest from Iran (12 August): Two Months Later

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2105 GMT: And one interesting tidbit from the evening press in Iran. Press TV reports, using Parleman News, that Iranian journalists are putting their own pressure on the Government over detainees:

Iranian journalists have called on the truth-finding committee for the post-election unrest to facilitate a meeting between detained opposition activist Saeed Hajjarian and the media. On Journalist Day, parliamentary reporters and political correspondents meeting with a high-ranking member of the committee Alaeddin Boroujerdi requested a meeting with Hajjarian.

2100 GMT: However, even if the news is slow, the Karroubi-Rafsanjani story still has explosive potential. An EA colleague hauls me up over my earlier portrayal of Rafsanjani as "messenger":

Rafsanjani is not merely passing letters! In Iranian bureaucracy, when an individual deals with an official who is stonewalling, you send a letter to a person who is considered to be that official's superior, explaining the said official's behavior and
asking the superior to interfere directly. The superior then writes a message on top of the original letter directing the official to respond to the original request. In this particular instance Karroubi has sent a letter to Rafsanjani, implying that Rafsanjani is Shahroudi's superior, and Rafsanjani has effectively sent Shahroudi a directive not a request. I do not think that this implies a "passive and limited Rafsanjani".

2030 GMT: Apologies for the lack of updates, but there is little visible political movement beyond the negotiations over the Karroubi letter. The Los Angeles Times is filling the gap by sensationalising an interview with former First Vice President Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai. CNN is playing up "U.N. experts say Iran tortured to extract confessions", with three United Nations issuing general opinions (since a detailed investigation is impossible) on the detentions, confessions, and trials. And Tehran Bureau speculates on the next Minister of Intelligence.

1645 GMT: Mehdi Karroubi's party newspaper, Etemade Melli, has the next part of the Karroubi-Rafsanjani story. Karroubi say that the head of Iran's judiciary, Ayatollah Shahroudi, has asked the prosecutor general to contact Karroubi and to send people to take the points about abuse of detainees back to Iranian authorities

1545 GMT: And a Rafsanjani Response? Press TV's website is reporting, from the Iranian newspaper Jomhuriye Eslami, that Hashemi Rafsanjani has now acted on the 29 July letter from Mehdi Karroubi, calling for investigation of abuses of detainees. Rafsanjani passed it to Iran's head of the judiciary, Ayatollah Hashemi Shahroudi.

Shahroudi supposedly replied that such treatment had not happened in detention centers under the supervision of the judicial branch. Rafsanjani's firm response? He passed Shahroudi's response back to Karroubi.

If the report is true, the former President has reduced himself to the role of passing messages between others. However, "if true" needs to be kept in mind --- I suspect the regime relishes the image of a now passive and limited Rafsanjani.

1535 GMT: Another Letter to Rafsanjani. An organisation representing hundreds of former members of Parliament has written to Hashemi Rafsanjani demanding reviews of the "activities and performance of Iranian institutions, security and military forces, and the judicial system in recent events". The reviews are of "fundamental importance...to protect public trust in the Islamic Republic and the Constitution."

1530 GMT: There are reports from Iran (link in Farsi) that more than 30 detainees will begin a hunger strike from Saturday unless there is a review of their situation.

1045 GMT: A relatively quiet day so far. The one intervention is a curious one, with the Supreme Leader telling officials, “If I was to give you one advice, it would be for you to increase your insight....If you do not have deep insight, if you cannot distinguish your friends, if you cannot spot your enemies, then your attacks, dialogue and your actions may target your friends instead of your enemies."

The curiosity lies not in the remarks, which are fairly anodyne --- put aside personal and party interests for the good of the Republic, watch out for foreign threats, etc. --- but in the timing. Ayatollah Khamenei's meeting with the officials was on 27 July.

So why release a summary of the remarks more than two weeks later?

0740 GMT: More on the Karroubi-Larijani Story. A member of Mehdi Karroubi's party, Etemade Melli, has reiterated that Karroubi will soon present Ali Larijani with evidence regarding the abuse of prisoners. The party member adds that individuals who have told Karroubi of their abuse are willing to testify to Parliament. Larijani has responded that he would like to listen to the statements of these individuals privately before having them give evidence to the Parliament.

0720 GMT: Intrigue of the Morning --- The "Other" Larijani, the Judiciary, and Election Fraud. Yesterday we noted a claim that a member of the Guardian Council had told the Supreme Leader of his belief that there was widespread "cheating" in the Presidential election. At the same time, we picked up a rumour, which we held back from reporting, that the appointment of Mohammad Sadegh Larijani (the brother of Speaker of the Parliament, Ali Larijani) as head of Iran's judiciary was not a done deal.

Well, today put 2 and 2 together and get a (possibly mischievous) 4. The Green movement's outlet Mowj-e-Sabz claims:

Recently [Mohammad Sadegh] Larijani has made quite a few unpalatable statements in some private gatherings: namely, that as a member of the Guardian Council he was against validating the results of the last election and he did not believe that the election was conducted in an honest fashion. This has caused some of Ahmadinejad's supporters to vehemently oppose Larijani's appointment to the post; these opponents may have sufficient influence to sway the Supreme Leader's opinions away from appointing Larijani, even though Larijani has an established track record as a hardcore conservative. Larijani has also blatantly stated that the resolution of all issues regarding the recent detainees is a necessary precondition for him to take the job, another position that will not endear him to the AN fraction.

0530 GMT: 24 hours ago, I was uncertain where the opposition could and would go after the setback over Hashemi Rafsanjani's withdrawal from Friday prayers in Tehran. Yesterday's events provided an answer, culminating in a challenge --- still unnoted by the media outside Iran --- to the authority of the Supreme Leader.

The biggest clues did not come from the Bazaar demonstrations. While there were reports throughout the day of a gathering in the market, with claims of up to 80 percent of shops closed, the protests were too fragmented to have a visible impact, given the restrictions on news coverage. No video emerged; indeed, activists were so anxious to get some images that a falsely-dated clip circulated last night, and some reliable onlookers (including me) fell for it.

At the risk of sounding cold, to have an impact beyond the spot, the demonstrations need an organising “hook” --- an event, a rallying symbol, a public figure. And, for the moment, none of those is really present. There is talk of marching to the Tehran prayer site tomorrow despite Rafsanjani's withdrawal, but the chatter appears more hopeful rather than co-ordinated.

That does not means, however, that the challenge to the regime has finally fizzled out. To the contrary, Wednesday was dominated by rolling news of another show of resistance from political and religious figures.<

Once again, some of that came from “within” the Establishment. President Ahmadinejad's troubles with the majority “principlist” bloc are now on the surface, and the clock is ticking: he has six days to get his Cabinet choices ratified or the prospect of new elections arises. Individual MPs kept up the pressure, and Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaie added some high-profile criticism, including the call for firing and arrest of any officials involved with detainee abuse.

That issue of detainees is also galvanising for opposition politicians. Mehdi Karroubi is now in the public lead, with his letter to Hashemi Rafsanjani alleging abuses and calling for an enquiry on the frontline. Early yesterday, Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani's call for evidence appeared to have checked Karroubi, but the “reformist” leader took back the initiative last night with the promise to provide information.

Mir Hossein Mousavi added an important statement in the afternoon, turning the “foreign threat” issue against the regime. (We've posted extracts in a separate entry.) The appearance was important for several reasons: it brought Mousavi, who had been somewhat quieted since he was turned away from the “40th Day” memorial at Behesht-e-Zahra cemetery on 30 July, back to the forefront. And it threw down the challenge to the Government: do you really want to maintain the high-profile risk of making your case through the Tehran trials, as well as the threats to opposition leaders from institutions such as the Republican Guard and supporting media?

However, the most intriguing intervention came late in the day in a statement, still little-noticed outside the country, by Ayatollah Dastgheib. His call for an emergency meeting of the 86-member Assembly of Experts was not so significant in its timing --- the Assembly has a regular gathering scheduled within the next month --- as in its language. Dastgheib came out openly against the authority of Ayatollah Khamenei, criticising the Supreme Leader for his handling of the post-election crisis and more broadly for his supervision of the Islamic Republic.

In the opinion of one of my Enduring America colleagues, this will be the most significant meeting of the Assembly since the selection of Ayatollah Khamenei as Supreme Leader in 1989. It is a remarkable shift six months ago at the last meeting, it was Hashemi Rafsnanjani fending off a challenge to his leadership of the Assembly. Now, only a few weeks after the pro-regime clique again failed to topple Rafsanjani, it is the Supreme Leader who may be in the dock.

This does not mean that the opposition is on the point of toppling President Ahmadinejad, let alone Khamenei. Even Dastgheib's initiative, which was complemented by another statement by Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani on the legitimacy of a system which mistreated detainees, is more about keeping up pressure than raising the likelihood of a majority Assembly vote against the Iranian leadership. And the regime still has its own pressure points to exploit: there were signs yesterday, with an open media allegation against Rafsanjani's brother, that the campaign against the former President may be ramped up.

What can be said,after yesterday, however, is that the story is not over. Welcome to the next chapter.....