Video of Hillary Clinton in Congo: Disrespect or Overreaction?

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On Monday, Africans and the rest of the world witnessed an unusual dialogue when Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was at an open forum with young people in Kinshasa, the capital of the Democratic Republic of Congo.

A student took the microphone and asked what Mr. Bill Clinton was thinking about the involvement of China and the World Bank in the Congo. To this interesting question, Clinton's reaction was fast and severe: "My husband is not the Secretary of State; I am!"

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pvL6y-XYfmY[/youtube]

Israel: The Indictment of Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman

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Last week, Israeli police recommended that Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman be indicted on criminal charges. According to the police, there is sufficient evidence that Lieberman took bribes, fraudulently received goods, violated the duties of his public office, obstructed justice, harassed witnesses, and laundered millions of shekels using a host of shell companies and bank accounts. Furthermore, according to a police source, Lieberman contacted witnesses during the investigation despite being told not to do so.
The case was passed to state prosecutors and to Attorney-General Menahem Mazuz. On the same day, Lieberman issued a statement, claiming that the police's decision was without foundation and that he was the victim of political persecution:

For 13 years the police have conducted a campaign of persecution against me. There was not one real reason to open an investigation against me. I hope that, as opposed to the police, the other law enforcement bodies will act with reason, without political interests and without prejudice, and will not try to justify the longest political investigation in the history of the state.

One day later, Lieberman told a meeting of his party, Israel Beiteinu, that he would resign as Foreign Minister and party leader if Mazuz pressed charges. He added, “I'm happy that after great efforts and an appeal to the High Court of Justice, the investigation at least has reached its conclusion, and I hope the State Attorney's Office will supply a swift answer."

According to The Jerusalem Post, the Attorney General could take at least two months to issue an indictment. In the event of Lieberman's  resignation, the post of Foreign Minister will likely go to his deputy, Danny Ayalon, who is also a high-ranking official in Israel Beitenu.

The Latest on Iran (10 August): Threats and Concessions

NEW Iran: The Karroubi Letter to Rafsanjani on Abuse of Detainees
UPDATED More Iran Drama: Will Rafsanjani Lead This Friday’s Prayers?
Iran: President Ahmadinejad’s Battle in Parliament
The Latest from Iran (9 August): Once More on Trial

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1830 GMT. Sinking. Ship. Etc. Further to our news that members of Parliament have criticised President Ahmadinejad's choice for Minister of Defence, Sadegh Masouli, two MPs have gone public with more revelations of trouble. Javad Arianmanesh, an MP from Mashhad, has stated that the probability of a vote of confidence for Mahsouli, who is the current Minister of Interior, is very weak, and Mehrabian, Aliahmadi and Eskandari (Ministers of Industry, Education, and Agriculture) are also unlikely to go through. Mr. Hosseini, the MP from Gharaveh and member of the Parliamentary Energy Commission, has asserted, "In these conditions more that half of the ministers will not get a vote of confidence".

In these circumstances, Ahmadinejad's selection of Masouli was either very brave or very stupid: the Interior Ministry had difficulty getting confirmation last year amidst a running battle in the background between Ahmadinejad and Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani.

1710 GMT: Aftab News is repeating the assertion that Rafsanjani will not lead the Friday prayers. Still no comment from the former President's website.

1705 GMT: In a new directive the Intelligence Ministry has warned the media to "refrain from publishing information that has been classified as top secret material by this ministry....This includes documents, identity of Intelligence Ministry personnel, information about the hierarchical framework of Intelligence Ministry etc....Ignoring the rules and regulations in this matter would lead to legal prosecution."

I am sure this announcement has nothing to do whatsoever with the revelations of the mass firings by the President of Ministry of Intelligence personnel.

1700 GMT: Etemade Melli, the newspaper affiliated with Mehdi Karroubi, has jumped in on the controversy over Hashemi Rafsanjani, considering the statement from the Friday prayers committee: "It seems that such a decision [Rafsanjani's withdrawal from Friday prayers in Tehran] has been made because of concerns that the last blatant display of popular support that greeted Rafsanjani last time will be repeated. The question remains that was this decision made [by the committee] due to governmental pressure or that Rafsanjani himself decided to not lead the prayers".

1635 GMT: The Trouble Begins. Reports are emerging that members of Parliament have rejected President Ahmadinejad's choice for Minister of Defence.

1615 GMT: Larijani and the Investigations Gambit. From the start of the crisis, Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani has positioned himself against the Government by pressing for inquiries into claimed abuses by the security services.

He is doing so again but with a potentially more significant intervention. Speaking to journalists on Monday, he said that Mehdi Karroubi's graphic claims of mistreatment of detainees, including rapes of women and young men, must be investigated. Larijani's statement is even more significant because Karroubi's claims were initially in a private letter to Hashemi Rafsanjani. The letter was published yesterday (see our updates) in the Karroubi-affiliated newspaper Etemade Melli.

1510 GMT: Now the muddle over the Revolutionary Guard's threat to arrest Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mohammad Khatami, and Mehdi Karroubi. Our translation of the latest statement from the Guard is "In the holy establishment of the Islamic Republic of Iran, legal methods have been defined to deal with those who break the law and it is the duty of the judiciary to respond to these issues.”

Does that constitute, as we summarised at 1330 GMT, a call that the opposition leaders should be "brought to justice"?

1500 GMT: Confusion. The top two stories today --- Rafsanjani's status for Friday prayers in Tehran and the Revolutionary Guard's statement about opposition leaders --- are now caught up in political muddle and possibly intrigue.

First, Rafsanjani. As we reported at 1335 GMT, the Iranian Labor News Agency is reporting that Rafsanjani's office has announced the former President will not lead Friday prayers. BBC Persian is reporting, without referring to ILNA, that Rafsanjavi has stepped aside. CNN is even more blatant (and thus far from completely accurate): “A powerful former president of Iran who has become a critic of the regime will not lead Friday prayers this week, despite earlier reports that he would, his office said Monday.”

However, ILNA's article is curiously close to the line set out by the head of the Friday prayers, Seyed Reza Taghavi (1120 GMT), and there is no statement on Rafsanjani's website. It is also worth remembering that, before Rafsanjani led prayers on 17 July, there were false reports on state media that he had withdrawn.

Interpretation for the moment? Until there is confirmation from Rafsanjani's own people, this should be treated as an attempt either to bump the former President into stepping down or to mislead people that he will not be appearing.

1335 GMT: The Iranian Labor News Agency is claiming that Rafsanjani's office has issued a statement saying the former President will not lead Friday prayers this week. for "the prevention of political conflict."

1330 GMT: Correction --- The Revolutionary Guard Stands Firm? This is being quite a complex, even confusing, but important story. A reader updates that the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps, while denying that IRGC commander Mohammad Ali Jafari asked for the detention of opposition leaders, has NOT withdrawn the article written for its journal by the head of the political office, Yudollah Javani. Indeed, the article is still prominently displayed on the journal's website.

In other words, the general position is still that the "ringleaders" of the post-election disturbances should be brought to justice, although the head of the IRGC is not asking --- at this point --- for specific arrests.

1120 GMT: Seyed Reza Taghavi, the head of the commitee for Friday prayers committee, has said Hashemi  Rafsanjani will not lead this Friday's service in Tehran "to prevent political manipulation".

0930 GMT: Is Kahrizak Still Open? We had heard a disturbing rumour over the last few days about the Kahrizak prison, where detainees were abused and some killed and whose closure was announced by the Supreme Leader.

Now, less than a day after the head of the prison was arrested for his role in the treatment of detainees (0540 GMT), Mowj-e-sabz, the outlet of the Green movement, carries the story: "Kahrizak Detention Facility Is Still Functioning".

Unconfirmed reports from inside Iran, passed to Enduring America, claim the prison still has 1200 detainees.

0815 GMT: We've just posted a separate EA exclusive on the developing battle between President Ahmadinejad and the Iranian Parliament.

0800 GMT: I won't dare say it yet, but another Enduring America correspondent will, "The denial [of the threats to arrest opposition leaders] may be a signal that parts of the Revolutionary Guard are not supporting Ahmadinejad and Khamenei 100%. Just as there is a rift between the conservative fractions, there are also fractures in the Guard."

0740 GMT: The Revolutionary Guard Retreat. The Public Relations Office of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards has issued a statement denouncing "the efforts of some foreign media to attribute statements to General Mohammad Ali Jafari with regards to trying and sentencing some of the presidential candidates and other individuals". The statement continues, "What these media have said is media deviousness and is completely untrue.....In the holy establishment of the Islamic Republic of Iran, legal methods have been defined to deal with those who break the law and it is the duty of the judiciary to respond to these issues."

Although the statement does not refer specifically to the Javani article that we analysed below (0540 GMT), that presumably is also now thrown in the bin. So....

Why did the Revolutionary Guard back down on their weekend threats?

0540 GMT: A relatively quiet start to the day, so news coverage is dominated by yesterday's threat to arrest Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mohammad Khatami. The warning was issued by the head of the political office of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, General Yadollah Javani in an article in the IRGC's weekly journal: “If Mousavi, Khatami, [Ayatollah Mohammad] Mousavi Khoeiniha [Iran's prosecutor general after the Islamic Revolution], and Karroubi are the main suspects believed to have been behind the velvet coup in Iran, which they are, we expect the judiciary ... to go after them, arrest them, put them on trial and punish them according to the law."

Discussion of the Javani statement spread quickly, buttressed by a report in a Dutch newspaper that an arrest warrant had already been issued for Mousavi. According to Afshan Ellian, an Iranian professor now living in the Netherlands, his "reliable sources" said, "It is a carte blanche: [the authorities] are free to decide when and how they want to execute the arrest."

Such stories, while dramatic, should be seen more as political pressure rather than as the signal for the detention of the opposition leaders. Indeed, Javani's article can be read as an admission that the Revolutionary Guard, after two months of protests, is feeling the pressure. Unable to crack the opposition by responding to "illegal" demonstrations with violence and detentions, facing growing resentment of President Ahmadinejad amongst "conservatives", and caught up in a bureaucratic war in areas like the Ministry of Intelligence, the IRGC is lashing out. In the evolving grand scheme of manoeuvres, the threat is a secondary support for the main public challenge of the Tehran trials.

It is notable that, apart from the IRGC, only a small if vocal Parliamentary group is pressing for the arrests. And it is also notable that one name which is never mentioned as a possible detainee is Hashemi Rafsanjani.

Meanwhile, the other story carrying over to this morning is the Government's concession with its firing and arrest of the head of the Kahrizak detention centre. The sudden move, announced yesterday afternoon, was and still is easy to read. It is both a tactical step to limit pressure --- if the head of Kahrizak is given up, then others like Iran's police chief may not have to go --- and a strategic step to show that the Government is listening to public concerns over detentions.

The carrot-and-stick approach is likely to continue, but its success may rest on the answers to two question. Can the regime hold up, for the Iranian public, both its limited but symbolic admissions that some "good" Iranians suffered from rogue cases in rogue prisons and its line that a minority of its citizens must be punished for the "foreign plot" against Tehran? If so, then Mousavi, Karroubi, and Khatami don't have to be arrested; they just have to take on the image of internal leaders of the overseas plan.

And can the regime split off Rafsanjani, meeting some of his public concerns and looking for a private compromise on his role (and that of President Ahmadinejad) within the system, from those other opposition leaders?

Iran: The Karroubi Letter to Rafsanjani on Abuse of Detainees

The Latest from Iran (9 August): Once More on Trial

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The honorable Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani,
The respected Head of the Expediency Council,
With greeting and regards

The disturbing events that occurred after the presidential election have been discussed in detail by different groups, media and individuals including yourself.

Some have been illegally and inappropriately arrested. Others have been subject to beatings. Some have been injured and murdered. People’s residences as well as dormitories have been raided and turned into a bloodbath. Even women have been subject to savage and horrendous abuses on the street. These events should be investigated. But certain other horrific acts have been committed that if not for accounts from different sources in recent days, I or yourself would have had a hard time believing them.

Severe and brutal beatings have been reported such that after 40 days the victims are still not in stable condition.

Detainees have been subject to humiliating badmouthing, and cursing. This also occurred for people who attended your Friday prayer. This sort of behavior is not acceptable in our religious and Islamic culture as all parties and groups have stressed. This shows that people who have been hired to commit these acts have are not familiar with the most basic principle of our religion. There have been rumors related to this but I will not discuss them now.

As you are aware, I wrote a letter to the head of the Judiciary regarding these issues. I also mentioned these points to the Intelligence Minister who was recently dismissed. But I have heard something else that even still, thinking of it makes me shiver. I have not been able to sleep the last two days since I heard this. I went to bed at 2 but without exaggeration I did not fall asleep, until I got up at 4, read from the Koran and took a shower so that water might calm me down a little. I even did the morning prayers but still was not able to sleep.

People who have told me about this, have all held important official positions in the system. They are well known and some of them have been soldiers in the holy war [eight year Iran-Iraq war]. These people have told me that, something horrific has happened in the prisons. If only one case is true, it is a catastrophe for the Islamic Republic of Iran which has turned the bright, shining history of Shia clerics into an atrocious, shameful fate and has outdone many dictatorial regimes, including that of the tyrannical Shah.

I don’t think that the prisoners from leftist factions to militant groups who lived in Shah’s prisons side by side each other for 15 long years before the revolution, have seen or heard something similar.

I am writing these concerns for you, and insist that you take action regarding this matter and discuss it with Ayatollah Khamenei as you see fit. So that it is investigated thoroughly and if it is false, which I hope it is, the results are announced. Because right now, in society, this issue is being widely discussed by people who were arrested and by different media and websites. It is unclear what future generations will think of these events when they continuously become exaggerated. They will hold the Islamic Republic and clerical ranks also responsible. And if these events have occurred, the perpetuators, in any position or rank should be arrested and tried. This is necessary to keep opportunists from taking advantage of these rumors and this situation. It is also crucial that the committee consist of high ranking officials so that they will have the courage of expressing the truth, because I have heard that people have been threatened not to reveal any information about these events or they will be killed.

Mr. Hashemi, this is what I have been informed about:

Some of the detainees have reported that certain individuals have so severely raped some of the girls in custody that the attacks have caused excruciating damage and injury to their reproductive organs. At the same time, they report that others have raped the young boys so violently that upon their release, they have had to endure great physical and mental pain and have been lying in a corner of their homes since.

Considering the importance of this matter, it is expected that this case will be investigated by a neutral, transparent body appointed by the head of the Expediency Council [Rafsanjani]. So that this will remain a lesson for future generations, and will not serve as an opportunity for hooligans to humiliate the revolution, the Imam and the ruling system and to tarnish the thousand year contribution of the clerics. As a last point I note that two copies of this letter have been printed. One has been signed and sealed and sent to you and the other is with me.

Best Regards,
Mehdi Karoubi
July 31st, 2009

UPDATED More Iran Drama: Will Rafsanjani Lead This Friday's Prayers?

The Latest from Iran (9 August): Once More on Trial

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UPDATE 10 August, 1740 GMT: OK, EA staff and some well-informed colleagues have put heads together while we wait for some confirmation, any confirmation, from Hashemi Rafsanjani's website.

There is a significant difference between the statement of Seyed Reza Taghavi, the head of the Friday prayers committee, and the alleged statement from Rafsanjani's office. Taghavi's statement indicated that the cancellation was necessary to prevent the "political exploitation" by the opposition of the event. The supposed statement from Rafsanjani said the former President was withdrawing to avoid "likely disturbances". So Rafsanjani, if the statement is true, has put the burden of blame on the security forces, indicating their past attitudes towards protest and demonstration has prevented his appearance.

Still, we have to put our hands up for the moment: is the statement true?

UPDATE 10 August, 1645 GMT: Etemade Melli, the newspaper affiliated with Mehdi Karroubi, has jumped in, considering the statement from the Friday prayers committee: "It seems that such a decision [Rafsanjani's withdrawal from Friday prayers in Tehran] has been made because of concerns that the last blatant display of popular support that greeted Rafsanjani last time will be repeated. The question remains that was this decision made [by the committee] due to governmental pressure or that Rafsanjani himself decided to not lead the prayers".

UPDATE 10 August, 1520 GMT: The Iranian Labor News Agency's report, claiming a statement from Rafsanjani’s office, that the former President will not lead Friday prayers is being cited as fact by international news outlets. BBC Persian is reporting, without referring to ILNA, that Rafsanjavi has stepped aside. CNN is even more blatant (and thus far from completely accurate): "A powerful former president of Iran who has become a critic of the regime will not lead Friday prayers this week, despite earlier reports that he would, his office said Monday."

However, ILNA’s article is curiously close to the line set out by the head of the Friday prayers, Seyed Reza Taghavi (1120 GMT), and there is no statement on Rafsanjani’s website.

It is also worth remembering that, before Rafsanjani led prayers on 17 July, there were false reports on state media that he had withdrawn.

Interpretation for the moment? Until there is confirmation from Rafsanjani’s own people, this should be treated as an attempt either to bump the former President into stepping down or to mislead people that he will not be appearing.

UPDATE 10 August, 1320 GMT: The Iranian Labor News Agency is claiming that Rafsanjani's office has issued a statement saying the former President will not lead Friday prayers this week. for "the prevention of political conflict."


UPDATE 10 August, 1130 GMT: Seyed Reza Taghavi, the head of the commitee for Friday prayers committee, has said Hashemi  Rafsanjani will not lead this Friday’s service in Tehran “to prevent political manipulation”.

There has been a bit of a drama regarding Rafsanjani's Friday prayers.

Stage 1, Thursday: Seyed Reza Taghavi, the head of the committee responsible for Friday prayers, states, “It iThe presence of Ayatollah Hashemi is not yet clear and depends upon his health and the queue before him.”

Stage 2, Saturday: Reformist media and a Rafsanjani website state that Rafsanjani is leading the prayers.

Stage 3, Sunday morning: The website removes the statement, a development jubilantly reported by the conservative press.

Stage4,Sunday latest: The website issues a statement explaining why the statement was removed: "

The head of the Expediency Council [Rafsanjani] is extremely committed to stability and the golden mean and finds any deviation from this line and any hint of radicalism to be absolutely unacceptable....

The news regarding Ayatollah Rafsanjani's leadership next Friday is absolutely correct. However, it was removed from on the site out of respect for the committee responsible for Friday Prayers in order to eliminate any hint of encroachment upon the committee's powers and rights....Hopefully [this behavior] will provide the necessary edification for current previous and future generations of the revolution.