The Latest from Iran (13 August): The Challenge Rebuilds

The Latest from Iran (12 August): Two Months Later

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2105 GMT: And one interesting tidbit from the evening press in Iran. Press TV reports, using Parleman News, that Iranian journalists are putting their own pressure on the Government over detainees:

Iranian journalists have called on the truth-finding committee for the post-election unrest to facilitate a meeting between detained opposition activist Saeed Hajjarian and the media. On Journalist Day, parliamentary reporters and political correspondents meeting with a high-ranking member of the committee Alaeddin Boroujerdi requested a meeting with Hajjarian.

2100 GMT: However, even if the news is slow, the Karroubi-Rafsanjani story still has explosive potential. An EA colleague hauls me up over my earlier portrayal of Rafsanjani as "messenger":

Rafsanjani is not merely passing letters! In Iranian bureaucracy, when an individual deals with an official who is stonewalling, you send a letter to a person who is considered to be that official's superior, explaining the said official's behavior and
asking the superior to interfere directly. The superior then writes a message on top of the original letter directing the official to respond to the original request. In this particular instance Karroubi has sent a letter to Rafsanjani, implying that Rafsanjani is Shahroudi's superior, and Rafsanjani has effectively sent Shahroudi a directive not a request. I do not think that this implies a "passive and limited Rafsanjani".

2030 GMT: Apologies for the lack of updates, but there is little visible political movement beyond the negotiations over the Karroubi letter. The Los Angeles Times is filling the gap by sensationalising an interview with former First Vice President Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai. CNN is playing up "U.N. experts say Iran tortured to extract confessions", with three United Nations issuing general opinions (since a detailed investigation is impossible) on the detentions, confessions, and trials. And Tehran Bureau speculates on the next Minister of Intelligence.

1645 GMT: Mehdi Karroubi's party newspaper, Etemade Melli, has the next part of the Karroubi-Rafsanjani story. Karroubi say that the head of Iran's judiciary, Ayatollah Shahroudi, has asked the prosecutor general to contact Karroubi and to send people to take the points about abuse of detainees back to Iranian authorities

1545 GMT: And a Rafsanjani Response? Press TV's website is reporting, from the Iranian newspaper Jomhuriye Eslami, that Hashemi Rafsanjani has now acted on the 29 July letter from Mehdi Karroubi, calling for investigation of abuses of detainees. Rafsanjani passed it to Iran's head of the judiciary, Ayatollah Hashemi Shahroudi.

Shahroudi supposedly replied that such treatment had not happened in detention centers under the supervision of the judicial branch. Rafsanjani's firm response? He passed Shahroudi's response back to Karroubi.

If the report is true, the former President has reduced himself to the role of passing messages between others. However, "if true" needs to be kept in mind --- I suspect the regime relishes the image of a now passive and limited Rafsanjani.

1535 GMT: Another Letter to Rafsanjani. An organisation representing hundreds of former members of Parliament has written to Hashemi Rafsanjani demanding reviews of the "activities and performance of Iranian institutions, security and military forces, and the judicial system in recent events". The reviews are of "fundamental importance...to protect public trust in the Islamic Republic and the Constitution."

1530 GMT: There are reports from Iran (link in Farsi) that more than 30 detainees will begin a hunger strike from Saturday unless there is a review of their situation.

1045 GMT: A relatively quiet day so far. The one intervention is a curious one, with the Supreme Leader telling officials, “If I was to give you one advice, it would be for you to increase your insight....If you do not have deep insight, if you cannot distinguish your friends, if you cannot spot your enemies, then your attacks, dialogue and your actions may target your friends instead of your enemies."

The curiosity lies not in the remarks, which are fairly anodyne --- put aside personal and party interests for the good of the Republic, watch out for foreign threats, etc. --- but in the timing. Ayatollah Khamenei's meeting with the officials was on 27 July.

So why release a summary of the remarks more than two weeks later?

0740 GMT: More on the Karroubi-Larijani Story. A member of Mehdi Karroubi's party, Etemade Melli, has reiterated that Karroubi will soon present Ali Larijani with evidence regarding the abuse of prisoners. The party member adds that individuals who have told Karroubi of their abuse are willing to testify to Parliament. Larijani has responded that he would like to listen to the statements of these individuals privately before having them give evidence to the Parliament.

0720 GMT: Intrigue of the Morning --- The "Other" Larijani, the Judiciary, and Election Fraud. Yesterday we noted a claim that a member of the Guardian Council had told the Supreme Leader of his belief that there was widespread "cheating" in the Presidential election. At the same time, we picked up a rumour, which we held back from reporting, that the appointment of Mohammad Sadegh Larijani (the brother of Speaker of the Parliament, Ali Larijani) as head of Iran's judiciary was not a done deal.

Well, today put 2 and 2 together and get a (possibly mischievous) 4. The Green movement's outlet Mowj-e-Sabz claims:

Recently [Mohammad Sadegh] Larijani has made quite a few unpalatable statements in some private gatherings: namely, that as a member of the Guardian Council he was against validating the results of the last election and he did not believe that the election was conducted in an honest fashion. This has caused some of Ahmadinejad's supporters to vehemently oppose Larijani's appointment to the post; these opponents may have sufficient influence to sway the Supreme Leader's opinions away from appointing Larijani, even though Larijani has an established track record as a hardcore conservative. Larijani has also blatantly stated that the resolution of all issues regarding the recent detainees is a necessary precondition for him to take the job, another position that will not endear him to the AN fraction.

0530 GMT: 24 hours ago, I was uncertain where the opposition could and would go after the setback over Hashemi Rafsanjani's withdrawal from Friday prayers in Tehran. Yesterday's events provided an answer, culminating in a challenge --- still unnoted by the media outside Iran --- to the authority of the Supreme Leader.

The biggest clues did not come from the Bazaar demonstrations. While there were reports throughout the day of a gathering in the market, with claims of up to 80 percent of shops closed, the protests were too fragmented to have a visible impact, given the restrictions on news coverage. No video emerged; indeed, activists were so anxious to get some images that a falsely-dated clip circulated last night, and some reliable onlookers (including me) fell for it.

At the risk of sounding cold, to have an impact beyond the spot, the demonstrations need an organising “hook” --- an event, a rallying symbol, a public figure. And, for the moment, none of those is really present. There is talk of marching to the Tehran prayer site tomorrow despite Rafsanjani's withdrawal, but the chatter appears more hopeful rather than co-ordinated.

That does not means, however, that the challenge to the regime has finally fizzled out. To the contrary, Wednesday was dominated by rolling news of another show of resistance from political and religious figures.<

Once again, some of that came from “within” the Establishment. President Ahmadinejad's troubles with the majority “principlist” bloc are now on the surface, and the clock is ticking: he has six days to get his Cabinet choices ratified or the prospect of new elections arises. Individual MPs kept up the pressure, and Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaie added some high-profile criticism, including the call for firing and arrest of any officials involved with detainee abuse.

That issue of detainees is also galvanising for opposition politicians. Mehdi Karroubi is now in the public lead, with his letter to Hashemi Rafsanjani alleging abuses and calling for an enquiry on the frontline. Early yesterday, Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani's call for evidence appeared to have checked Karroubi, but the “reformist” leader took back the initiative last night with the promise to provide information.

Mir Hossein Mousavi added an important statement in the afternoon, turning the “foreign threat” issue against the regime. (We've posted extracts in a separate entry.) The appearance was important for several reasons: it brought Mousavi, who had been somewhat quieted since he was turned away from the “40th Day” memorial at Behesht-e-Zahra cemetery on 30 July, back to the forefront. And it threw down the challenge to the Government: do you really want to maintain the high-profile risk of making your case through the Tehran trials, as well as the threats to opposition leaders from institutions such as the Republican Guard and supporting media?

However, the most intriguing intervention came late in the day in a statement, still little-noticed outside the country, by Ayatollah Dastgheib. His call for an emergency meeting of the 86-member Assembly of Experts was not so significant in its timing --- the Assembly has a regular gathering scheduled within the next month --- as in its language. Dastgheib came out openly against the authority of Ayatollah Khamenei, criticising the Supreme Leader for his handling of the post-election crisis and more broadly for his supervision of the Islamic Republic.

In the opinion of one of my Enduring America colleagues, this will be the most significant meeting of the Assembly since the selection of Ayatollah Khamenei as Supreme Leader in 1989. It is a remarkable shift six months ago at the last meeting, it was Hashemi Rafsnanjani fending off a challenge to his leadership of the Assembly. Now, only a few weeks after the pro-regime clique again failed to topple Rafsanjani, it is the Supreme Leader who may be in the dock.

This does not mean that the opposition is on the point of toppling President Ahmadinejad, let alone Khamenei. Even Dastgheib's initiative, which was complemented by another statement by Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani on the legitimacy of a system which mistreated detainees, is more about keeping up pressure than raising the likelihood of a majority Assembly vote against the Iranian leadership. And the regime still has its own pressure points to exploit: there were signs yesterday, with an open media allegation against Rafsanjani's brother, that the campaign against the former President may be ramped up.

What can be said,after yesterday, however, is that the story is not over. Welcome to the next chapter.....

The Afghanistan Election: Scott Lucas on Al Jazeera English (12 August)

I have been unable to write as much on Afghanistan recently as I would like to, especially with the Presidential election scheduled for 20 August. So it was a pleasure yesterday to exchange views on Al Jazeera English's Inside Story with the Independent Member of Parliament, Daoud Sultanzoy. Despite some technical problems, we were able to consider the election, wider political issues inside Afghanistan, the possibility of disruption of the vote, and the plans of other key players such as the US Government.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mxvoIVw8afg[/youtube]

UPDATED Israel's War of Words: The Times of London, Iran's Bombs, and Hezbollah

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Co-written with Ali Yenidunya:

UPDATE 13 August, 0630 GMT: A good psychological warfare campaign can't go silent for long. Reuters reported on Wednesday: "Under a photograph of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sitting the previous day in the cockpit of an F-15I long-range fighter-bomber, mass-selling [Israeli newspaper] Ma'ariv quoted the official as saying Israel could carry out such a strike without U.S. approval but time was running out for it to be effective. The official said, ""The military option is real and at the disposal of Israel's leaders, but time is working against them."

You have to hand it to The Times of London: when it comes to propaganda, their reporters never run the risk of subtlety.

On 3 August, an article signed by no less than three intrepid reporters, including the Defence Correspondent, proclaimed, "Iran has perfected the technology to create and detonate a nuclear warhead and is merely awaiting the word from its Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, to produce its first bomb." A research programme to create weaponised uranium had been completed in the summer of 2003, and Iranian scientists "could feasibly make a bomb within a year of an order" from Khamenei.

Two days later, Foreign Editor Richard Beeston, one of the three authors of the Bomb Is Imminent piece, found another angle in a pair of articles, one co-written with Nicholas Blanford, "Tehran is investing...in its Lebanese proxy Hezbollah", which had "amassed tens of thousands of rockets and missiles capable of bombarding half [of Israel]".

The threat of an Iranian nuclear attack, coupled with its sponsorship of a regional war on Tel Aviv? Where could Beeston and his companions have discovered these master plans? According to one of the articles, "Western intelligence sources".

Which is absolutely right, if by "Western" you mean "Israeli".

We have written for months about how The Times is a leading channel for stories put out by Israel's military and intelligence services. This time, however, the paper went a step further. Rather than taking the information fed to the normal outlet, Tel Aviv correspondent Uzi Mahnaimi, it sent Beeston to Israel where he was given the material for the articles by Israeli officials. As Amos Harel subsequently reported in Ha'aretz, "At a Knesset [Israeli Parliament] Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee briefing on Tuesday [5 August], the head of the Military Intelligence Research Brigade, Brig. Gen. Yossi Baidatz, used almost identical terms to those of The Times" on the state of Iran's nuclear programme.

For the Hezbollah report, the Israeli military escorted Beeston to the Lebanese border where he met Brigadier-General Alon Friedman, the deputy head of the Israeli Northern Command, who laid out the line that the situation could “explode at any minute”. This followed an earlier Times claim of "surveillance footage" (source not identified) which "showed Hezbollah fighters trying to salvage rockets and munitions" from an ammunition bunker which exploded.

OK, it's far from rare for a newspaper to turn briefings by officials into an "exclusive" investigative report. It's not unusual to imply multiple sources to cover up the campaign of a single Government. What is distinctive about the reports in The Times is that Beeston and his colleagues cannot be bothered to cite information and analysis that cuts the other way. It is far from a deep secret that the December 2007 National Intelligence Estimate of US services had concluded that Iran had ended its nuclear arms research programme in 2003. In the same week of The Times' report, the State Department's Bureau of Intelligence and Research issued an assessment that Iran could not produce a nuclear bomb even if it wanted to do it right now:

While Iran has made significant progress in uranium enrichment technology, the State Department’s intelligence bureau (INR) continues to assess it is unlikely that Iran will have the technical capability to produce HEU [highly enriched uranium] before 2013.

Now perhaps the Israelis have some specific piece of intelligence that refutes the American assessment. Possibly there is some document somewhere that establishes that Iran is commanding a Hezbollah political and military forces with "40,000" rockets. Rest assured, however, that these articles are not based on such tangible evidence. They are press releases masquerading as investigative journalism.

To paraphrase one of the best guides to propaganda, The Man Who Shot Liberty Valance, "This is Israel and Iran, sir. When the legend becomes fact, print the legend."

The Latest from Iran (12 August): Two Months Later

NEW Translation: Mousavi on Detentions, "Foreign Interference", and Islamic Republic (12 August)
NEW Spinning Israel's War of Words: The Times of London, Iran's Bombs, and Hezbollah
NEW Translated Text: The Indictment in the Tehran Trials
Iran Special Announcement: Supreme Leader Looking for (Facebook) Friends
The Latest from Iran (11 August): A Change in Prayers and a Pause


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2050 GMT: We've posted the English translation of Mir Hossein Mousavi's statement today. The text goes beyond our initial analysis (1700 GMT): this is a concerted and, in my opinion, clever attempt to turn the "foreign interference" charge back on the regime. It is the Government's actions such as detentions, propaganda, and lies, Mousavi says, that makes the Islamic Republic vulnerable to the manipulations of powers such as the United States.

1910 GMT: Ayatollah Ali Mohammad Dastghaib has asked for an emergency meeting of the Assembly of Experts, saying it is the duty of the Experts to the Iranian people "to maintain the Constitution".

1855 GMT: Mehdi Karroubi has responded to Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani's statement that he "wanted evidence" of  allegations of detainee abuse, contained in a letter from Karroubi to Hashemi Rafsanjani. A Karroubi spokesman said that information would be provided on the charges, which included rapes of women and young boys.

(A side note: it is now being claimed that state media exaggerated Larijani's statement when it said he called Karroubi's allegations of rape "a lie" --- see 0720 GMT.)

1840 GMT: Mahmoud is God. So says Ayatollah Mesbah-Yazdi, who told a gathering of "Basij Artists", "Once the President has received the investment from the Supreme eader, the holiness of the Supreme Leader is transferred to him as well, therefore people should obey the President as if they obey God."

1815 GMT: Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei, following up his criticism of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad yesterday, has said that if allegations of abuse of detainees are proven, "all the related officials should be dismissed and tried" on criminal charges.

1750 GMT: Saeed Mortazavi, the prosecutor in charge of the trials of those arrested during the post-election conflict, says the hearings for French national Clotilde Reiss have been completed, but her conviction and/or sentence has yet to be determined: "Reiss is still in jail but her trial is over and any decision on her release on bail or remaining in prison will be taken by the judge."


1735 GMT: An Iranian website has published the list of about 100 individuals who are banned from appearing on Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting. (No one from Enduring America is on the list...yet.)

1730 GMT: Mowj-e-Sabz, the website for the Green movement, carries the dramatic allegation that a member of the Guardian Council, in the presence of the Supreme Leader, testified to widespread "cheating" in the Presidential election.

1700 GMT: Back from break with partial question, asked in our initial update, about the next move of opposition leaders. Mir Hossein Mousavi's website, Ghalam News, has declared, "What happens in Iran's prisons these days clearly shows the necessity of a deep change in the country." The new twist is an attempt by Mousavi to turn the charges of "foreign interference" against the regime: "Could America harm Iran ... as much as these events in prisons have damaged the (1979 Islamic) revolution and the country?" (Reuters has a summary in English.)

1300 GMT: The Iranian Labor News Agency has given a guarded acknowledgement that all was not normal in the bazaar in Tehran today, referring to "the presence of security forces in the market". The article emphasised, "The market should be calm....A market with any gathering "is the opposite".

1100 GMT: Twitter reports on today's demonstration at the Central Bazaar in Tehran are offering a pattern of events common from earlier gatherings: mobile phone service cut off to hinder communication, police trying to prevent any mass grouping, and demonstrators shifting to other places.

0930 GMT: Fars News Agency reports that Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami will lead Friday prayers in Tehran. In his prayer addresses since 12 June, Khatami has taken a hard line regarding protestors, on one occasion threatening the death penalty, but has also criticised President Ahmadinejad.

0855 GMT: Shajarian Update. Good news for fans of the Iranian classical singer, who has refused to allow the broadcast of his songs on Iranian state media as a protest against President Ahmadinejad's depiction of the opposition as "dust". It seems that some of Shajarian's music will soon be available via the Internet.

0845 GMT: No confirmed information on size of protest at Central Bazaar in Tehran today, but Twitter chatter claims a significant turnout and a large presence of security forces. One live Farsi-language blog is claiming that Mir Hossein Mousavi's wife, Zahra Rahnavard, joined the demonstrators and that 80 percent of the Bazaar's shops are closed.

0800 GMT: Discussion is heating up on the latest statement of Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani, which is being seen by some as an open challenge to the ultimate authority of the Supreme Leader. Zahra Rahnavard's Facebook page offers this summary: "The Supreme Leader other than being fair should also obey the constitution and comply with the Assembly of Experts and as soon as he loses these conditions will automatically loses [sic] his position."

0735 GMT: It has been officially announced that, as expected, Mohammad Sadeq Larijani (the brother of Speaker of the Parliament, Ali Larijani) will replace Ayatollah Mahmoud Shahroudi as head of Iran's judiciary on 15 August. Mohammad Sadeq Larijani is a member of the Assembly of Experts and of the Guardian Council; another Larijani brother, Mohammad Javad, is head of the judiciary's human rights division.


0730 GMT: Fintan Dunne in Sea of Green Radio offers an interesting analysis of Iran's release, on bail, of the French-Iranian national and French Embassy employee Nazak Afshar: "Repression of the type which the Iranian regime is attempting requires both brute force and political...savvy. The brutality has been on vivid display, but the savvy tellingly absent."

0720 GMT: Larijani Walks the Tightrope. The Speaker of the Parliament, Ali Larijani, is quoted by the Islamic Republic News Agency, in response to the claims in Mehdi Karroubi's letter to Hashemi Rafsanjani, ""The issue of detainees being sexually abused is a lie. Following an investigation of detainees in Kahrizak and Evin prisons, no cases of rape and sexual abuse were found."

The denial comes only a day after Larijani called for a Parliamentary investigation of the treatment of detainees, and the Speaker has also been in the lead in requesting other enquiries into the behaviour of security forces.

Analysis? On the one hand, Larijani wants to maintain some authority for the Iranian Parliament, the Majlis, and thus some pressure on the Government. On the other, he does not want to lose control of those investigations, especially not to the Green opposition.

0705 GMT: We have just posted an English translation and a brief analysis of the indictment in the Tehran trials of almost 100 detainees.

0645 GMT: Another Warning for Ahmadinejad. Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei, following the firing of the Minister of Intelligence and more than 20 other officials in the Ministry, has criticised, “The personnel of the ministries of foreign affairs, intelligence and defense … are not suddenly fired or retired in any country as such a move would create many doubts.”

Significantly, given the Parliamentary pressure on the President,  the warning from Rezaei, who is Secretary of the Expediency Council, was sent in a letter to Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani.

0600 GMT: Two months ago, a Presidential election was held in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Three hours after the polls closed, the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, declared President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad the victor with almost two-thirds of the vote.

Today that President, who was finally inaugurated a week ago, still struggles to establish his authority. On Tuesday, the "principlist" bloc, the largest in Iran's Parliament with 202 of 490 representatives, wrote a letter to Ahmadinejad insisting that his choices for Ministerial posts must have "experience and expertise". The letter comes after a day after the President had to hold an emergency meeting over the principlists amidst criticism of several of his selections for high-profile offices.

And the opposition two months later? It is still very much present, though in what numbers and what forces is unclear. After the setback of Hashemi Rafsanjani's withdrawal from Friday prayers in Tehran, activists in the Green movement is trying to rally today with marches to central bazaars in major cities. The first protests are scheduled for 10 a.m. local time (0630 GMT). The leaders of that movement have been relatively low-key in recent days, apart from Mehdi Karroubi's attempts to press for movement on the detainees issue. I

And the Supreme Leader? Well, he apparently now has his own Facebook page.

Translation: Mousavi on Detentions, "Foreign Interference", and Islamic Republic (12 August)

The Latest from Iran (12 August): Two Months Later

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Speaking to the Central Committee for organising reforms, Mir Hossein Mousavi, in the context of criticism of the newspaper Keyhan for its savage attack upon Mehdi Karroubi, said:

I believe that even if the US had used all of its might, it could not have inflicted a greater damage to the country and the Islamic revolution than [the horrific events] happening in the detention centers....Isn't Keyhan by positioning the cultured and intellectual class against the establishment, acting in concert with foreign powers as it is displaying an enmity towards the establishment similar to that of the doubters [the People's Mujahedin] and maintaining the interests of the US and the UK?

...The greatest falsehood was misrepresenting the natural desire of the public for reform as foreign interference....If we study
carefully we shall see that no one has served foreign interests more assiduously than those claiming that the reform movement was inspired by foreign interference....Does the US prefer your broadcasting medium to be a fair and reputable source or for it to lose its reputation by repeating falsehoods?...Are those who ask the IRIB to be fair and transparent working in the interests of foreigners or [is it] those who have forced the people to seek news from foreign media?...Isn't attacking
Karroubi...the best service that can be made to foreign interests?

Mousavi concluded his speech by praying for the freedom of the imprisoned political activists.