Text: Latest Karroubi Statement on Detainees, Rafsanjani, and Larijani (13 August)

The Latest from Iran (14 August): Just Another Prayer Day?
Is the Challenge to the Regime Alive? Karroubi, Rafsanjani, and Detainees

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The saga of Mehdi Karroubi's letter to Hashemi Rafsanjani on detainees moves on. We've analysed the political significance, after Hashemi Rafsanjani pressed the Iranian judiciary for action, in a separate post. In an interview with Saham News, Karroubi spoke about the letter and Rafsanjani's response:

Those [critics of my letters and their allegations] who are making the atmosphere of society tense should instead try to provide a safe and calm space [for those who are abused] and try to put together an independent delegation of individuals to investigate these abuses. The delegation should be comprised of individuals whom the abused prisoners can trust so that they can relate to the delegation how they have been treated. The abused prisoners must be convinced that the members of this delegation will defend their rights to the end.

I had many reasons to write to Mr. Rafsanjani: First, he has close contact with the Supreme Leader and therefore I am sure that he will convey these problems to the Supreme Leader. Secondly, Mr. Rafsanjani himself has criticised the recent events and at the Friday prayers he stated his complaints and even asked for the freedom of the detainees. Thirdly, I have already written to the Minister of Information and the head of the judiciary and [their behavior] led me to write to [Rafsanjani], who is both the head of the Expediency Council and the Assembly of Experts. Fourthly, I have known Mr Rafsanjani since the conception and gestation of the Islamic Revolution and I have continuously befriended him and worked both before and after the revolution.

I have the right to write to him. this has nothing to do with our personal differences, because I believe, regardless of our personal differences, that Mr. Rafsanjani occupies an immensely respectable and special position and therefore he may be able to do something. These gentlemen who are currently defaming and verbally abusing Mr. Rafsanjani must have forgotten that he was one of the closest friends of Imam [Khomeini]....

When I sent the letter, due to the horrific scale [of abuse] I expected him [Rafsanjani] to respond promptly; however, it took more than 10 days for Mr. Rafsanjani to respond. I am not saying this to complain, I just assumed that either he was not willing to answer my letter or that due to the current situation in society and his own personal considerations he decided not to involve himself in this mess. Therefore as a response to the torrent of alarming news that I was continuously receiving, I decided to make this letter public.

Of course I later understood that Mr. Rafsanjani had referred the letter to Mr. Shahroudi and he had ordered him to act upon my letter. Mr. Rafsanjani has also asked the head prosecutor, Mr. Dorri-Najafabadi, to contact me and state that he will send me [Karroubi] individuals to obtain my opinions and reflect them to the relevant officials....

When this letter was published many different reactions occurred. Some people welcomed this letter, because they said that this letter provided an atmosphere for those who had issues to say [regarding this abuse] to come forward....Of course there were also those who were incensed by this letter, and these individuals tried to create an atmosphere so that no one would dare to refer to these atrocities. An atmosphere in which no one dares to protest if people's children are killed or prisoners are insulted or the families of the prisoners are threatened and beaten up in front of the prison, people's homes are invaded, and their possesions damaged. Why instead of making such a horrendously terrifying atmosphere that oppresively silences the people, do you do not create a space in which people who have complaints have the opportunity to air their greivances in a free and safe atmosphere?

Will it not have been better if some of you instead of using profanity would have studied the main issue? Instead you are claiming that my letter is a pack of lies without even forming a committee to investigate these allegations....I am ashamed to bring up such instances of abuse."

....Although I have a great deal of respect towards Mr. Larijani, the head of parliament...and towards Mr. Boroujerdi, the head of the National Security Commission of Parliament, I must point out to these gentlemen that before they deny and dismiss the contents of my letter in haste they should have at least contacted me or asked me to provide witnesses. Maybe I could have provided some information that you do not have. How can you state that what I have written is pure fabrication without even setting up an investigation?...In a situation where even the head of parliament...is willing to label an issue as a falsehood without even researching and investigating it, how can individuals dare bring up these issues?

....It is 20 years that I, an insignificant member of the establishment, have tried to defend the civic and legal rights of the people and I assert that these defamation tactics will not deflect me from the pathway that I believe in.

Iran: Is the Challenge to the Regime Alive? Pressure on the Supreme Leader

The Latest from Iran (14 August): Just Another Prayer Day?

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The intrigues over the Karroubi-Rafsanjani initiative on detainee, in itself, is an uncertainty to dominate political discussion for days, but attention to it has hidden a second development that may be just as significant. We noted yesterday that an organisation representing hundreds of former members of Parliament had written Rafsanjani calling for ""reviews of the activities and performance of Iranian institutions, security and military forces, and the judicial system in recent events”.

That summary was crucially incomplete. The full translation is "to review of the activities and performance of all Iranian institutions that operate under the direct supervision of the Supreme Leader including security and military forces, and the judicial system during the recent events”.

There you have it. This would not just be an examination of the Iranian system but of Ayatollah Khamenei's actions and role within it. The letter bluntly states:

Contrary to other political systems that absolve their leadership from responsibility, in the Islamic Republic of Iran according to Law Number 107 of the Constitution the Supreme Leader is equal to any other citizen, and according to law the Supreme Leader must assume responsibility for his actions due to his Supreme Leadership.

According to Law Number 57, all three branches of government act under the Supreme Leader, we are therefore asking you as the head of the Assembly of Experts to ensure that the Assembly performs its duty as delineated by Law Number 111 and review of the activities and performance of all Iranian institutions that operate under the direct supervision of the supreme leader including security and military forces, and the judicial system during the recent events.

it is the invocation of "Law Number 111" that raises the red flag to Khamenei. The full text of the clause:

Whenever the Supreme Leader is unable to perform his duties or it is ascertained that he does not currently meet one of the conditions [for Leadership] in laws 5 and 109 (or it is demonstrated that he did not have these
conditions from the beginning) he can be set aside and it is the job of the Assembly of Experts to ascertain this issue.

OK, but these are just former members of Parliament, right? Well, consider a second development --- largely missed by the media --- that we noted last Wednesday and then highlighted in our first update yesterday. Ayatollah Ali Mohammad Dastgheib, a member of the Assembly of Experts, called for an emergency meeting to review the political and legal situation. His statement was a blunt challenge to the performance of Ayatollah Khamenei, the equivalent of asking "Law Number 111" to be implemented.

I concluded yesterday, "Dastgheib’s initiative...is more about keeping up pressure than raising the likelihood of a majority Assembly vote against the Iranian leadership." After the statement of the former MPs, however, an EA colleague asserts, "This is the greatest challenge to Khamenei ever."

I'm not ready to go that far yet. But as this crisis has already shown --- repeatedly --- ripples turn into waves.

Iran: Is the Challenge to the Regime Alive? Karroubi, Rafsanjani, and Detainees

The Latest from Iran (14 August): Just Another Prayer Day?

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The immediate significance of Mehdi Karroubi's letter, as it passed from Karroubi to Secretary of Parliament Ali Larijani and then, via Hashemi Rafsanjani, to the head of Iran's judiciary was that it kept the detainee issue at the top of the political agenda. But, of course, what lies behind that issue is the extent of the challenge to the Iranian system. And there uncertainty arises.

Foremost among these are the plans of Hashemi Rafsanjani, who was supposed to be leading Friday prayers today. I find it extremely difficult to read the former President, whose political moves can be very intricate. So my initial framing of his role yesterday as a "messenger" passing the Karroubi letter to judiciary head Ayatollah Shahroudi --- with its conclusion that Rafsanjani had now been "contained" in this crisis --- was off the mark.

EA colleagues have raised two very different possibilities. The first is that Rafsanjani is having to show great caution because the regime is increasing its pressure on him. Here, the assertion that the former President would have been arrested if he had led Friday prayers is an unhelpful exaggeration. Instead, the hints are that the Government will investigate charges of corruption, beginning with members of Rafsanjani's family. This hint has been around before and after the election, and it resurfaces at times --- such as this week --- when the regime is feeling pressure.

That, however, points to a second explanation. Rafsanjani who is maintaining his challenge to the system but in more subtle ways. His passing of the Karroubi letter to Shahroudi, as we noted in our last updates yesterday, could be seen as a powerful signal that the former President was slapping down the head of the judiciary for the regime's inaction and letting him know that something would now be done. Shahroudi accepted that signal and responded that there would be an investigation of the detainee issue, beginning with examination of Karroubi's allegations.

Shahroudi, however, leaves office tomorrow, to be replaced by Mohammad Sadegh Larijani. Larijani is known as a "hard-liner"; at the same time, he is disliked by President Ahmadinejad's supporters, to the extent that they have tried to block his appointment this week by spreading the story that he told the Supreme Leader of widespread "cheating" in the election.

So another uncertainty can be added: how seriously will the judiciary pursue the Karroubi letter? The same question, when put to the Parliament, got the inconclusive reply of another Larijani, Speaker of the Parliament Ali, that he needed to see  more evidence. If the judiciary follows suit, then the next moves in this lengthening chess match are up to Karroubi and Rafsanjani.

Video: Debating the Election, Protest, and the Tehran Trials (Marandi, Mossavat, and Tisdall)

On Tuesday, Al Jazeera English's Inside Story considered the post-election crisis in Iran, beginning with the trials of almost 100 detainees, with Dr Seyed Mohammad Marandi of the University of Tehran and journalists Shahab Mossavat and Simon Tisdall. Because of restrictions of the media in Iran and the unwillingness of many commentators to appear on Press TV English, it is one of the few in recent weeks that I have seen between an Iran-based specialist and analysts in the "West":

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fD_r-QFNYlU[/youtube]

Two Months On: All Our Videos From Iran's Post-Election Conflict

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We're not sure we expected, when we began rolling coverage of the post-election crisis in Iran, that we would still be going two months later. Well, the crisis continues, and so do we. We've amassed a huge collection of videos,  including speeches, TV appearances, and many, many protests. Below are links to all of our video posts from the past two months, in chronological order. (Please note: some videos may be unavailable in your country, and some may no longer be available at all.)

If we've missed a video you think is important, do let us know. And thanks to all of you for reading and working with us.

June:

• The Protests in and Beyond Tehran (12-18 June)

• Protests Spread to Shiraz and Mashhad

• The Moment of Truth? Mousavi’s Speech at Saturday’s Protests

• The “Neda” Protests (20-23 June)

July:

• U2’s Concert Song for Iran


• The Father’s Day Protest (6 July)


• The 18 Tir Protests (9 July)


• Sohrab Arabi Funeral (13 July)


• Mousavi, Rahnavard with Sohrab Arabi’s Family (14 July)


• Ahmadinejad Failure in Mashaad? (16 July)


• The Rafsanjani Prayer Address (17 July)


• Cleric Tabatabai Criticises Ahmadinejad on State TV (20 July)


• The Protests Continue (21-22 July)


• Zahra Rahnavard, Vanak Square Protests


• The Nighttime Protest (27 July)


• Mousavi Speech, Nighttime Protests (27-29 July)


• The “40th Day” Memorial (30 July)


• The “40th Day” Memorial (30 July – Part 2)

August:

• Abtahi “Confession”, Roohul Amini, and the Tehran Trial (2-3 August)


• Khamenei-Ahmadinejad “Non-Kiss” and Tehran Protests (3 August)


• The Inauguration Protests (5-6 August)


• Extracts from Tehran Trials (8 August)