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Entries in Isa Saharkhiz (9)

Monday
Aug162010

The Latest from Iran (16 August): Complaints

2000 GMT: Supreme Leader's Film Corner (Hijab Special). So here was the question put to Ayatollah Khamenei and other senior clerics, "If a film which is to be shown on Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting has been made outside Iran and features women without hijab, what is the ruling?"

The Supreme Leader's response? "One may look at the face, neck, head, and hands of non-Muslim women."

1730 GMT: International Affairs Expert Rahimi Update. The office of first Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi, who has provided some illumination with his recent entry into international affairs commentary (e.g., Australians are cattlemen and South Koreans should be slapped), has issued a clarification.

Rahimi, his staff explained was misquoted because of a "wrong translation" in his comments on "England": he meant to say that not all but only some British politicians are idiots.

1720 GMT: Surveillance and a Lawsuit. Detained journalist Isa Saharkhiz and his son Mehdi have filed a lawsuit in US Federal Court in Alexandria, Virginia against Nokia Siemens Networks and its parent companies Siemens AG and Nokia Inc., alleging human rights violations committed by the Iranian government through the aid of spying centres provided by Nokia Siemens Networks.

NEW Iran Document: Mohammad Khatami on Religion, the Islamic Revolution, and the Republic (15 August)
NEW Iran’s Battle Within: Ahmadinejad Appeals to Supreme Leader (Rafiee)
Iran Feature: Two Faces of Modernity (Vahdat)
Iran Latest (15 August): Revolutionary Guards’ “Election Tape”


1715 GMT: Parliament v. President (cont.). MP Ali Motahari, who has been amongst the leader of the challenge to President Ahmadinejad and his inner circle, has welcomed Sunday's meeting between Ahmadinejad and the heads of Parliament and the judiciary (see 0520 GMT), but he has complained that the Government is blocking files against some high-ranking officials, which might provide information on claims of corruption.

Motahari also coyly noted that some MPs accused him of "insults" against Ahmadinejad, when he only said, "The fact that the President does not recognize the law on metro allocations [Parliament had authorised $2 million for the Tehran metro but Ahmadinejad has refused to accept] opens the way to dictatorship." Motahari added, "I don't know how those handful of MPs who regularly humiliate the Majlis will answer to the people whom they are meant to represent."

1705 GMT: Rahnavard "Some in Iran Government Worse than Saddam". Appearing with her husband Mir Hossein Mousavi in a meeting with veterans of the Iran-Iraq War, Zahra Rahnavard
commented
, "Unfortunately I should ask that, while you were in Iraqi prisons, did you even think that when you were freed from Saddam's prison, you would face the imprisonment of hundreds and even thousands of freedom seekers in your own country?"

This university professor referred to the complaint filed by seven senior reformist figures, all detained after the 2009 election, against military officials over last year's alleged manipulation of the vote:
Would you ever imagine that these seven freedom seekers, who I call them the seven warriors, would be imprisoned because they filed a complaint against the actions of the coup agents, while they could have filed their complaint in a just court and received a response with convincing reasons? But the government throws them in jail and does not know that this is the voice of the people, seeking justice and asking [where their votes went], that is raised by these seven brave ones in a form of a complaint. In any case, a part of the ruling power curses at Saddam, while they have treated the people worse than him.

1650 GMT: Parliament v. Ahmadinejad. Looks like the President's letter to the Supreme Letter (see separate entry) might be needed to stave off an appearance before Parliament.

Reformist MP Mohammad Reza Khabaz claims that there are now three independent but simultaneous moves by conservative factions to question Ahmadinejad: “The first move by the principlist members, which succeeded, came from the faction’s clergymen in the form of a collective warning to the President signed by 16 clerical members of the Parliament."

Khabbaz said a pro-government MP was also preparing the draft of a “critical” letter to Ahmadinejad regarding the behaviour of his aide Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai. He claimed that the letter would ask Ahmadinejad about the reason behind his silence with respect to Mashai’s comments over Iran and Islam and his support for the controversial Chief of Staff. “I asked this MP who had been a staunch supporter of the government until two weeks ago, why was he in such a hurry to gather signatures for such a letter and he replied to me that ‘we want to do our duty and to prevent an even more radical by the parliament’. But this conservative MP only gave the letter to [his fellow] Principalist MPs to sign and did not allow the reformist MPs to join,” said Khabbaz.

Khabaz said that in a third move, the Majlis members were planning to sign a motion on calling for Ahmadinejad to be questioned over “the government’s recent acts against the law and its neglect of the parliament’s passed bills, as well as recent remarks made by Mashaei”. He described the three parallel moves against the coup government as “unprecedented” and said that conservative members in the Majlis were competing against one another in “warning and questioning” Ahmadinejad.

When asked about the number of signatories on the critical letter as well as the number of signatories to the motion to question Ahmadinejad, Khabaz said, “I am not aware of the number of signatures but there is great interest for this act and the MPs are still in the process of gathering signatures.”

A total of 74 MPs need to support the motion in order for the president to be questioned in parliament.

1640 GMT: Rumour of Day. Yet another video has been posted --- we have seen several in recent weeks --- of an alleged queue of Iranians for petrol/gasoline. This footage is supposedly from Karaj, Iran's fifth-largest city and just west of Tehran:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w_C5kKBFykU[/youtube]

1635 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Kalemeh reports that leading student activist Majid Tavakoli, one of the 17 detainees who recently went on hunger strike --- has been transferred from Evin Prison to Rajai Shahr Prison.

(English translation via Negar Irani)

1615 GMT: Nuclear Tough Talk. I return from vacation to find the non-Iranian media preoccupied with yet another round of sound and fury from Tehran. From Agence France Presse (quickly followed by Associated Press):
Iran is to start building its third uranium enrichment plant in early 2011, as President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad signed a new law Monday binding Tehran to pursue the controversial work of refining uranium to 20 percent.

The law, Safeguarding the Islamic Republic of Iran's Peaceful Nuclear Achievements, had been passed by lawmakers last month and it also stipulates that Tehran limit its cooperation with the UN's nuclear watchdog, state news agency IRNA reported.

Iran's atomic chief Ali Akbar Salehi told state television that the search for sites for 10 new uranium enrichment facilities "is in its final stages. The construction of one of these will begin by the end of the (current Iranian) year (to March 2011) or the start of next year, inshallah (God willing)."

Never mind that the Iranian Government has been chest-thumping about "10 new facilities" for almost a year. (Last September, the President was promising 20.) A simple re-statement is enough to start flutters in the "West".

AFP notes the response from the French Foreign Ministry: "We expect Iran to comply with its international obligations. This announcement only worsens the international community's serious concerns about Iran's nuclear programme."

1140 GMT: Nourizad’s "Last Letter" to the Supreme Leader. Mohammad Nourizad, the journalist and documentary maker, who was recently released on bail, has written his sixth and, he claims, last letter to Ayatollah Khamenei (see separate EA entries for earlier Nourizad letters).

The letter, posted on Nourizad's website, declares:
Oh Lord, in the time of Seyed Ali [Khamenei] as the Supreme Leader, the law and abiding the law by officials became insignificant and worthless. The favourite ones used the law as a ladder to climb up in power and gain opportunities. A miserable poor man is thrown into government’s prison over a million toman ($1000) unpaid debt, but the President, his Vice President, as well as some of their ministers and government managers who have taken billions in embezzlement and fraud, in a marathon of deceiving the people, brag about their shirt buttons close to their throats (a sign of being religious among the revolutionary officials) and laugh at the law and the people.

At the end of the letter, Nourizad urges the Supreme Leader, as he is getting to the end of the journey of life, to order the release of innocent political prisoners: this way he may make peace with the people and will not leave a bad name for himself in history.

1125 GMT: The Hunger Strike. Kalemeh reports that families of the 16 political prisoners who recently ended a hunger strike have again been denied visit permits, despite the reported promise of the Tehran Prosecutor General that contact would be restored. The website also claims the prisoners are being held incommunicado in solitary confinement in Ward 240.

0835 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Nima Bahador Behbahani has been released on bail. Aged 17 when he was arrested on Ashura (27 December), far from the protests, he was judged as an adult rather than a minor.

0820 GMT: Execution Watch (cont.). One hundred cities have now joined the campaign against stoning.

The interview by French philospher Bernard-Henri Levy of human rights lawyer Mohammad Mostafaei (see earlier entry) has been posted in English on The Huffington Post.

Mostafaei says of his client Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani, sentenced to death --- initially by stoning --- for adultery, "She is a symbol. She is the symbol of all Iranian women who are victims of the family, the society, of their discriminatory laws."

0810 GMT: Parliament v. President. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad may have written the Supreme Letter (see separate entry), but that has not settled matters. "Hardline" MP Assadollah Badamchian has daid the President has no authorisation to declare that a ratified law is not in force. Badamchian said Parliament must tell Ahmadinejad that laws endorsed by the Expediency Council, headed by Hashemi Rafsanjani, are legal.

0735 GMT: Execution (Sakineh) Watch. An international group of prominent writers, singers, actors, and activists have issued an appeal for the commutation of the death sentence of Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani, condemned for adultery.

French philosopher Bernard Henri Lévy has interviewed Ashtiani's lawyer, Mohammad Mostafaei, now in forced exile in Norway.

Feresteh Ghazi, interviewing an attorney involved in the cases, writes that four other women face stoning or other means of execution.

0645 GMT: The Music of Protest, the Protest of Music. Aria Fani writes about artists such as Shahin Najafi to note, "Honoring and emulating (the) tradition of protest verse, a new generation of Iranian singers and rap artists are confronting sociopolitical taboos head on and keeping lit the flame of resistance against a corrupt, totalitarian regime. Their music not only echoes their own defiance, it also voices their generation's demands."

0630 GMT: Shutting Down the Mayor? According to Kalemeh and several bloggers, Iranian authorities filtered “Khabargozarieh Shahr” (City News Agency), a website linked to Tehran Mayor Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf.

0625 GMT: We have posted the English translation of former President Mohammad Khatami's remarks on Sunday about religion, the Islamic Revolution, and the Republic.

0535 GMT: Who is Mesbah's Target? Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi has proclaimed that "not every unity is good and not every difference is bad". He said that "some who insist on wrong interpretations of Shia don't want to discuss differences, but are devils causing division".

Once upon a time, Mesbah Yazdi, seen by many as the spiritual mentor of the President, would have directed his criticisms at the opposition. Now, given his recent comments on Ahmadinejad's advisors and even the President, the target is not so clear.

0520 GMT: Reconcilation? No. The leaders of the Iran Government's three branches --- President Ahmadinejad, Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, and head of judiciary Sadegh Larijani --- met Sunday.

There is little in the account of Mehr News beyond the cryptic but telling comment of Ali Larijani that there is no room for “odd interpretation” of law.

Khabar Online says the meeting lasted 2 1/2 hours. but there was "absolute silence" on the outcome.

0500 GMT: We open today with tales of two very different complaints. In a separate entry, we post Bahram Rafiee's report that President Ahmadinejad has written to the Supreme Leader about his escalating dispute with the Parliament.

Rafiee also writes for Rooz Online about a serious complaint against the Government and Ahmadinejad in Friday's open letter by the reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front to the head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani.

The letter builds on the news that seven political prisoners, all senior memers of the IIPF and the Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution party, had filed complaints against “lawbreaking military officers during the tenth presidential election”, citing a leaked audio of a senior Revolutionary Guard commander setting out steps against the opposition before and after the election.

The IIPF wrote Larijani:
The widespread distribution of taped statements from Commander Moshfegh, a senior figure at the Sarallah base, removed the curtain from the electoral coup in the tenth presidential election and proved the truth of the green movement leaders’ claim that the election was engineered. This individual, who speaks frankly, ignorantly and with a drunkenness from power, about organizing the coup, clearly admits to actions that cannot be referred to as anything other than a coup in any school of political thought....

Now that it has been uncovered that the person who was introduced as the President reached that post through a coup (and not just fraud), lacking any kind of legal or Islamic legitimacy, it is your duty to forward the matter to the supreme court for investigation.
Monday
Aug092010

Iran: Open Thread for News and Analysis (Monday 9 August)



2000 GMT: Picture of the Day. Human rights lawyer Mohammad Mostafaei, now in Norway, and his wife, recently released from prison. [Photo credit: The Times]

1715 GMT: Back to the Bazaar. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty carries a profile from the Tehran Bazaar, which was on strike last month, with critical remarks about the Government. Typical is the comment from "Hossein": "Nobody takes (Ahmadinejad) seriously. You just wonder what kind of logic he and his supporters are using. It is...baseless and aggressive statements that have triggered more and more sanctions against our economy."

The article claims that a combination of Government policies, Revolutionary Guard takeovers, and cheap imports are forcing more and more small businesses.

1610 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. There are persistent reports that detained journalist Isa Saharkhiz, moved to Rajai Shahr Prison in May, is in a state of “paralysis” and is “unable to move.”

The reports appear to be a heightening of information that Saharkhiz is suffering from paresis --- difficuties in moving parts of the body.

Seven Baha'i leaders have been moved to Rajai Shahr prison after sentence of 20 years each.

Photographer Hamed Saber has been temporarily released from prison on bail after being arrested on 21 June for photos of street protests.

1545 GMT: Drawing a Line? Abbaszadeh Meshkini, the political head of the Ministry of Interior, says the Hojjatieh association has not applied for a permit to become a party and, if it applies, it will not receive one.

Hojjatieh, which places great emphasis on the return of the "hidden" 12th Imam, was banned by Ayatollah Khomeini in the 1980s. There are persistent rumours that President Ahmadinejad and his spiritual mentor, Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, are followers.

1530 GMT: Another Larijani Challenges the President. Back to our lead story today....

Sadegh Zibakalam, a leading analyst inside Iran, says the quarrel between the head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, and President Ahmadinejad is not about language but is a sign of emerging deep rifts within the establishment.

Zibakalam asserts that --- as reformists and Greens have been imprisoned, have fled, or have been reduced to inactivity --- the battle is between rational, "Majlis- centred" hardliners like Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, Deputy Speaker Mohammad Reza Bahonar, Tehran Mayor Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf, Ali Motahari, and Elyas Naderan and radical hardliners in the Ahmadinejad Government.

Zibakalam believes the radicals are imposing themselves at the moment, but in the long run rational hardliners will take over because of the Government's failures over the economy and the crisis in foreign policy.

1420 GMT: The Battles Within --- The President's Man and the Head of the Guardian Council. In what appears to be an attempt to take the heat out of the furour over Ahmadinejad Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, Avaz Heydarpour, a member of Parliament's National Security Commission, has said Rahim-Mashai's "Iran v. Islam" comments will probably be discussed in the commission but it is not necessary for the aide to appear before the Majlis.

However, Parliamentary rumbling over Ayatollah Jannati, the head of the Guardian Council, continues after the cleric's accusations of US-Saudi funding ($51 billion) of the opposition for regime change.

Moh Ali Karimi, suggesting the former President Mohammad Khatami file a complaint, said allegations without proof should be punished by the judiciary.

Qodratollah Alikhani of the Majlis National Security Commission claimed the accusations against Khatami are "a show and a pretext" to make people forget economic, financial and political problems due to sanctions. He added that "slander against a respected member of the political elite is unbelievable and a sin", weakening the Iranian system.

Reformist Nasrollah Torabi charged, "Whenever they cannot eliminate a person with logic or votes, they use these methods (of slander)," and said the judiciary must act.

1410 GMT: Today's World Politics Lesson (Censored and Uncensored Versions). A classic speech from First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi and equally classic treatment in Iranian media....

Rahimi told an audience that English people are "a bunch of retards run by a Mafia, actually ruled by a youngster, who is even more idiot than his forerunner", and Australians are a bunch of shepherds. The dollar and Euro are najes (religiously impure), and before Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's Presidency, "our whole oil industry was English".

But on Fars News' English-language website, the remarks are a lot less fun. There, Rahimi described new international and unilateral sanctions as an opportunity for Iran's further progress and said the government will endeavor to better the situation of the Iranians amid boycotts.

1400 GMT: Sanctions Watch. The list of countries backing pressure on Tehran appears to be slowly expanding. Following a US push to get Asian cooperation, South Korea has submitted a sanctions report to the United Nations.

1345 GMT: More Defiance. A senior aide to President Ahmadinejad, Mojtaba Samareh Hashemi, has said that Iran will not hold talks and negotiations with the US due to Washington's "disrespect and hostile stances".

1030 GMT: Economy Watch. In an indication of Iran’s difficulties with trade, the head of the central bank has demanded a cut in imports.

0945 GMT: Energy Squeeze. Peyke Iran claims that the Ministry of Energy now owes $5 billion to private companies.

0930 GMT: Clerical Challenge. Ayatollah Dastgheib has taken another swipe at the Government and President, alleging that mostakberin (oppressors) rule the country with one party.

Dastgheib also had sharp words for the Supreme Leader: “A sacrosanct person doesn’t send an army against people to maintain his position but is friendly to them.” Dastgheib added that a  bad defence of Islam is the biggest injustice to it.

0845 GMT: The Political Prisoners Challenge. Payvand has re-posted the news that seven prominent reformist politicians, all imprisoned after the June 2009 election, are filing a lawsuit against the Revolutionary Guard for manipulation of the vote.

0830 GMT: Economy Watch. Reformist member of Parliament Mohammad Reza Khabbaz has complained that Iran’s oil income is not making it to people’s tables and now Ahmadinejad is ”even taking away their bread”.

Khabbaz also jabbed that the Government had not yet implemented its subsidy cuts.

0815 GMT: Defiance. Amidst talk of renewed US-Iran discussions, Ali Akbar Velayati, the key foreign policy advisor to the Supreme Leader, declares, “Iran has the iron will to pursue nuclear development.”

0715 GMT: The US and Iran (and a Bigger Battle). We start the day with an analysis from Gary Sick considering American foreign policy and the latest state of play with Tehran.

The bigger battle, however, is the battle within, and there’s a new challenge to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad this morning.

Sadegh Larijani, the head of Iran’s judiciary, has said, “We expect our President to use a decent language and say the truth.” Larijani pointedly added that laws apply to everyone and, in a flexing of muscle for his judicial branch, said that judges are not bound to anyone.

But it’s not the independence of the judiciary that Larijani was asserting. He declared, ”Now they even want to bomb the Majlis (Parliament) and insult its chief.” The “chief” of the Parliament is Sadegh Larijani’s brother, Ali.

Sadegh Larijani concluded, “I told Ahmadinejad he doesn’t say the truth, stop the insults.”
Tuesday
Aug032010

The Latest from Iran (3 August): Explosive Words

2000 GMT: Defense Watch. The Ministers of Defense of Iran and Oman have agreed to "secure the Straits of Hormuz".

1950 GMT: Conspiracy Theory of the Day. Qassem Ravanbaksh, editor of Parto-ye Sokhan (linked to Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi), has declared that former President Mohammad Khatami visited Saudi Arabia before the June 2009 election to get money.

More tangibly, Khatami has been fined $300 over an unspecified speech because of a complaint by Ahmadinejad Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai.

1945 GMT: Basij Disruption. Basiji paramilitaries have disrupted a memorial service for former member of Parliament, Ismail Tatari, at a Kermanshah mosque because they thought Mehdi Karroubi might be present.

1905 GMT: Taking On the President. Leading MP Darius Ghanbari has joined the criticism of President Ahmadinejad, from across the political spectrum (see 1700), for the conference of the Iranian diaspora. Ghanbari also charged the Government with the wrong strategy as it "chased" elite Iranian and foreign investors.

1900 GMT: Meeting Mousavi. A group of Iranian journalists have posted a report on Rah-e-Sabz of a discussion with Mir Hossein Mousavi and Zahra Rahnavard.

NEW Iran Analysis: Saharkhiz & Abtahi Dent the Government’s “Fear Factor” (Shahryar)
NEW Iran Feature: Did Ahmadinejad Chief of Staff Reveal the Bomb?
NEW MENA House: “Iranian” Rockets Used in Attacks on Israel and Jordan
Iran: Secularists, Reformists, and “Green Movement or Green Revolution?” (Mohammadi)
Iran Analysis: Hyping the War Chatter — US Military Chief Mike Mullen Speaks
The Latest from Iran (2 August): The Campaign Against Jannati


1853 GMT: No Debate. In the least surprising news of the day, the Obama Administration has rejected President Ahmadinejad's call for a public discussion with Barack Obama at the UN General Assembly in September. White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said, "We have always said that we'd be willing to sit down and discuss Iran's illicit nuclear program, if Iran is serious about doing that. To date, that seriousness has not been there."

1845 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. The trial of film director Jafar Panahi, arrested in March for criticism of the regime, has been postponed to late September because the judge and prosecutor did not appear in court yesterday.

1840 GMT: Sanctions Watch. As EA readers have already noted, the US has formally imposed sanctions on 21 firms it claims are front companies for the Iranian Government.

The claimed fronts included two Belarus-based banks, two Germany-based investment firms, and mining and engineering companies in Japan, Germany, Luxembourg, Italy, and Iran.

The news has been noticed inside Iran, with Press TV headlining the development.

1700 GMT: The Battle Within. Alef has asked the President to "please observe national dignity", criticising Ahmadinejad's "strange" challenge to Barack Obama to a debate in the US.

1539 GMT: Viewing Iran. Our colleague Lara Setrakian of ABC News has launched a new site, The MidEast Memo. Included in its opening entries are a look at the case of the three Americans still detained a year after hiking into Iranian territory and a review of sanctions and Iran's attempts to get around them.

1535 GMT: Economy Watch. Fereydoun Khavand, an economist at the University of Paris, claims in an interview that Iran's unemployment rate is at its highest point in six years.

1530 GMT: So You Want a Debate, Mahmoud? An interesting twist in the story of President Ahmadinejad's call on President Obama to hold a public discussion with him in the US....

Five imprisoned journalists, including Isa Saharkhiz, Masoud Bastani, and Mahdi Mahmoudian, have challenged Ahmadinejad to debate them publicly about his Government's performance.

1315 GMT: Ahmadinejad Today. Another speech by the President, this one to Iran's conference on international media: no apparent talk of Zionist assassination plots but lots of condemnation of the United Nations' "anti-Iran" position. Ahmadinejad referring back to the 1980s, said that "certain people who forced Imam Khomeini to 'drink poison'" and accept the UN resolution ending Iran-Iraq war are still active.

The President also gave his audience an intense rhetorical assault upon the Western media.

1255 GMT: Political Prisioner Watch. The death sentence of Mohammad Ali Haj Aghaei, arrested in post-election protests, has been upheld. According to the International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran, the appellate court did not hold a hearing and confirmed the sentence verbatim.

0950 GMT: International Front. Looks like Iran is to going to skip diplomacy --- a move to talks on uranium enrichment with Washington, as well as other countries --- for grandstanding. The Foreign Ministry has followed President Ahmadinejad's call-out of his American colleague for a public discussion: "If US President Barack Obama expresses his readiness, the UN General Assembly [meeting in September] would be a good opportunity for face-to-face transparent talks.”

0920 GMT: We have posted an analysis by Josh Shahryar, "Saharkhiz & Abtahi Dent the Government’s 'Fear Factor'."

0825 GMT: The Supreme Leader's Next Fatwa. His "I am the Rule of the Prophet" declaration may still be disputed, but Ayatollah Khamenei has reportedly moved to his next topic: the danger of music.

On the same day that Iran's legendary singer Mohammad Nouri was buried, Khamenei supposedly replied to a follower: "Although music is halal, promoting and teaching it is not compatible with the highest values of the sacred regime of the Islamic Republic."

Fars said the fatwa was given to a 21-year-old follower who was thinking of starting music lessons. Khamenei answered, "It's better that our dear youth spend their valuable time in learning science and essential and useful skills and fill their time with sport and healthy recreations instead of music."

We are checking if the fatwa is on Khamenei's official website.

0815 GMT: Do You See a Theme Here? Four of Press TV's last eight stories: "Iran trivializes US war threat"; "Iran rejects reports of US war threat"; (my favourite) "Iran prepares 'enemy-crushing' plans"; "Iran warns Israel against new ME war".

0805 GMT: The Mousavi-Karroubi Statement (A Reaction). Despite the rather limited nature of the Mousavi-Karroubi declaration on the way forward, EA's Ms Zahra is hopeful: "I have the impression that Moussavi is slowly passing over his red lines, his latest statement reads rather democratic, although recurring to religious expressions like a 'Pharaonic' regime."

Ms Zahra also notes former President Mohammad Khatami's most recent speech with its emphasis on the experience of Iran's Constitutional Revolution as a "democratic revolution".

0800 GMT: The Mousavi-Karroubi Statement. Radio Zamaneh summarises yesterday's meeting between Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, headlining criticism of both the Iranian Government and the international pressure on Tehran.

Indeed, Mousavi and Karroubi linked the two, stating, "Uncalculated remarks and decisions of the government have humiliated Iran and led to multilateral sanctions and threats”. They added that the Government was lying about the economic situation, as the sanctions “burden workers, farmers and the impoverished strata of the society, and they could lead to inflation, economic decline and rise in unemployment.”

Mousavi also urged the judiciary to deal with "disturbing news" on political prisoners, and both men said government plans to establish 7000 Basij paramilitary bases across Iran show how the Basij hasbeen transformed into “a military-political party to oppress people, students, dervishes and their civic demands and also to engineer the elections".

Mousavi and Karroubi urged Iranians to “establish social networks to produce truthful content and statistics regarding the situation of the country.”

0740 GMT: Propaganda and "Sedition". Gozaar has a lengthy analysis, with background from the 1990s, of the campaign of Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting against Iranian intellectuals and activists through the series Fitna.

0725 GMT: We open this morning with a separate feature on the reported statement of the President's Chief of Staff, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad indicated last year that Iran is approaching capability for a nuclear weapon.

That is not the only explosive --- sorry for the pun --- declaration coming out of Iran, however. There was a flurry of non-military activity on Monday pointing to further conflict, from the opposition's challenge to the head of the Guardian Council, Ayatollah Jannati, to the revelation of former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi of last summer's Tehran "show trial" to criticism of the President from his "conservative" adversaries in Parliament. There was a legal twist, with Ahmadinejad apparently filing a lawsuit against one of his Parliamentary nemeses, Ali Motahari.

Even the attempted deflections from these conflicts merely added a layer of political humour. The Government's attempt to showcase its support from Iranians abroad, through a gathering of 1300 of them in Tehran, was hindered by "hard-line" criticism that the exercise was a waste of money and even included a "CIA associate".

And Ahmadinejad's speech to the conference moved from the significant --- an indication that Iran was ready for direct talks with Washington --- to the diversionary, with his declaration of readiness to speak publicly ("debate") with President Obama in the US in September and his claim that Zionists were trying to assassinate him.
Tuesday
Aug032010

Iran Analysis: Saharkhiz & Abtahi Dent the Government's "Fear Factor" (Shahryar)

It started a few weeks ago with journalist Isa Saharkhiz, detained in Evin Prison and appearing in court, standing up to the Iranian regime and refusing to sign a confession. Now we have the admission of former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi admission, in the wake of other revelations from Iran’s prisons, that the trials of reformists being held in Tehran’s courts were "rehearsed" in advance.

Even before the Iranian Uprising of last year, human rights activists and freed prisoners had raised questions about the validity of trials of activists, reporters, lawyers, students, and political dissidents. So what distinguishes the Saharkhiz and Abtahi developments? The answer lies in a) the timing and b) the importance of individuals making these claims.

When student protests in Iran in the 1990s was put down, part of the regime's success was that the protesters were unable to attract support from elements within the government or the clergy. And even though some student leaders escaped, they were unable to speak openly about their experiences until they left the country and were safe.

This time, the opposition has not only been able to attract high-ranking members of the establishment but has been able to break through the government's "blackout" inside Iran

Isa Saharkhiz worked for the government and the Islamic Revolution from its very early days. However, he now harshly condemns the establishment, going as far as saying that "the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic has proven that he is willing to do anything just to continue a little longer his dictatorial rule over people".

Abtahi’s short statement claiming, "A year ago on such a day we had a trial, we had practiced the day before. What a day it was...." is another nail in the coffin of the Islamic Republic’s campaign to cultivate legitimacy.

Here are two individuals who supported the Islamic Revolution and served this regime for decades. If silenced this time, they would have still assisted the regime’s claims for legitimacy in a small but notable way. (Remember, the regime’s main concern is appearing legitimate to its own population, not to the West.) But both of them have visibly snubbed the regime. Exposing the government’s hypocrisy and criticizing its Supreme Leader are daring attempts at educating the public.

The regime will attempt to a) contain the outcry after both incidents and b) reprimand the two perpetrators, something both Abtahi and Saharkhiz know. So why would two well-established public figures who have worked for the regime and know that they are now risking their lives go ahead? Because the government has lost command of the single most important virtue that keeps every dictatorship in power: fear.

Fear is what kept the people from going into the streets in the wake of the student uprisings of the 1990s. Fear is what kept them from rebelling after the Revolution took away their liberties one by one. Fear is the single most important element in the equation that has worked in the Islamic Republic’s continued existence. Saharkhiz and Abtahi’s revelations further elucidate how much ground the regime has lost since last June.

In another country more than 70 years ago, Franklin D. Roosevelt proclaimed, “The only thing we need to fear is fear itself.” It seems Iranians are beginning to learn that.
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