The Latest from Iran (23 August): Political Cease-fire?

1830 GMT: Shh, Don't Mention the Sanctions. In an interview with former President Abulhassan Banisadr, Deutsche Welle refers to two directives from Iran's Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance. One banning newspapers from printing pictures and news of opposition figures has already been mentioned (see 0919 GMT).

The other is new to us: Iranian media have apparently been told to make no mention of the effects of sanctions.

NEW Iran Document: Interview with Detained Filmmaker Mohammad Nourizad
NEW Iran Special: Have Ahmadinejad and Ali Larijani Kissed and Made Up?
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The Latest from Iran (22 August): Ahmadinejad Aide Mortazavi Suspended?

1800 GMT: The President's Men. Fars News is now carrying the story of the suspension of three officials over the Kahrizak Prison abuses, but does not name any of them, including Presidential aide Saeed Mortazavi.

1745 GMT: MediaWatch (cont.). Thomas Erdbrink, writing in The Washington Post, is the first "Western" reporter to name Presidential aide Saeed Mortazavi as one of the three officials suspended for alleged connections with post-election Kahrizak Prison abuses. Erdbrink quotes human rights lawyer Saleh Nikbakht, "Mortazavi is among them, and now that he no longer has judicial immunity, he could face trial."

And The Financial Times is clearly on a roll with its coverage of the in-fighting. Having noted the Supreme Leader's intervention on Wednesday (see 1735 GMT), the newspaper also features Najmeh Bozorgmehr's article "Shia Schism Deepens Ahmadi-Nejad's Woes": "The infighting between Iran’s fundamentalists has deepened the gulf between supporters and opponents of President Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad."

1735 GMT: MediaWatch on The President's Men. Credit to Reuters for picking up on Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's appointment of his chief of staff, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, as one of his four "special representatives" for foreign policy --- Rahim-Mashai's responsibility will be the Near East --- and for putting that in the context of political battles within the establishment.

Not so sure, however, that Reuters' snap conclusion is on the mark: "[This suggests] for now that for now [Ahmadinejad] may have the upper hand over the critics." (Someone might want to consult Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani.)

The Financial Times, belatedly but interestingly, notes the Supreme Leader's intervention last Wednesday and frames it as "Ayatollah Warns Bickering Politicians". The reporter, Monavar Khalaj, picks out this extract from Ayatollah Khamenei's statements, “I gave a serious warning to the officials not to make their differences public....Unity and solidarity among the country’s officials is a religious duty and the intentional rejection [of unity] is, especially in the upper echelon, against religious teachings.”

1720 GMT: Baby Basij. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, drawing from Aftab News, reports that female commander of the Basij militia, Zohreh Abbasi, has said that her unit has introduced a special program that allows baby girls to be registered as members of the force and receive training.

Abbasi said that, in the past six years, 23 baby girls had been trained as Basij members through "Koranic, cultural, educational, and military" classes.

"Basij mothers register their baby girls 40 days after they were born at the Hossein Haj Mousaee unit by presenting documents and IDs," Abbasi said. She declared that two babies have recently been born and  work is under way to prepare a dossiers for the new arrivals to enrol them in the special program.

1715 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Detainees at Rajai Shahr Prison written to Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, asking him to support human rights and labour activism.

1450 GMT: Energy Squeeze. Nabucco Gas Pipeline International GmbH, the company behind the amibitious Asia to Europe "gas bridge", will supply Europe through links to Turkey’s borders with Georgia and Iraq, rejecting a connection to the Turkish-Iranian border. Nabucco said the shareholders' decision was “due to the current political situation".

1335 GMT: MediaWatch (President's Man Edition). Almost 24 hours after the suspension of Ahmadinejad aide and former Tehran Prosecutor General Saeed Mortazavi from his post because of alleged links to the Kahrizak Prison abuses, non-Iranian media --- like their counterparts in Tehran --- are not providing a name. The BBC, following the lead of the Associated Press, say only that "Iran has suspended three judicial officers".

1315 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Persian2English reports that Amnesty International and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Netherlands have expressed concern over the possibility of a death sentence for Zahra Bahrami, an Iranian-Dutch citizen arrested in Iran after the Ashura protests of 27 December.

1245 GMT: Tough Talk Today. Rear Admiral Ali Fadavi, the Revolutionary Guard's Navy Commander, says Iran's missile-launching vessels are the best in the world for speed and power. “American warships currently have a maximum speed of 31 knots while Iranian vessels can travel twice as fast on average,” Fadavi said at a ceremony to open production lines for domestically-built Zolfaghar and Seraj craft.

1100 GMT: The Nuclear Front. Yesterday we noted, from a paragraph in a New York Times article on the Bushehr nuclear plant, the significant announcement that "Russia would provide Iran with iodine and molybdenum, nuclear isotopes used in medicine" and asked, "Will Iran withdraw its demand that it be allowed to enrich uranium to 20%, at least while discussions proceed on a long-term deal over the nuclear programme? And is Washington up-to-speed and supportive of the Russian move?"

An EA source offers an answer, noting this statement from the head of Iran's nuclear enrichment programme, Ali Akbar Salehi:

We will go as far as our needs are met. So we have no intention to proceed forever for enriching [uranium] to 20%, although it is our right according to the NPT [Non-Proliferation Treaty] and the IAEA [International Atomic Energy Agency] statute to enrich uranium to any percentage that is needed for peaceful uses in nuclear energy. But this does not mean that we shall do so. We only embarked on 20% because of the conditions that were imposed on us. I reiterate that we will go as far as our needs are met.

Our source comments, "Seems to me that Iran is gearing up to offer this as a bargaining chip."

0919 GMT: Blackout in the Newspapers. Daneshjoo News publishes a document which it claims is a Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance order barring the names and pictures of Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mohammad Khatami from newspapers.

0918 GMT: Silence in the Theatre. Voice of America offers an overview of new restrictions by the Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance on Iran's theatre.

0915 GMT: We have published a separate feature: journalist and filmmaker Mohammad Nourizad, just before returning to prison last week, posted his comments in an interview for his website.

0739 GMT: The Hunger Strike. Jila Bani Yaghoub, the wife of journalist Bahman Ahmadi Amoui, one of 17 detainees who recently went on hunger strike in Evin Prison, has offered an update on her blog.

Bani Yaghoub says the hunger strikers, who ended their fast last week, are "weakened" but in excellent spirits. She claims that, when they were finally returned to the general ward --- Amoui was one of the last three prisoners to be let out of solitary confinement --- they knew already about the international "echo" of their protest.

0735 GMT: Cleric Stands Tough. Following yet another attempt by a crowd to intimidate him by gathering outside the Shiraz mosque where he presides, Grand Ayatollah Dastgheib has warned "those who meet clandestinely to attack Qoba Mosque again". He said that he is interpreting the Qu'ran in mosque, and all that his followers want is justice and implementation the Constitution.

0725 GMT: The Supreme Leader and the Students. More on Ayatollah Khamenei's three-hour meeting with student represenatives on Sunday....

The Supreme Leader declared, "I am united with all those who follow principles, but others are outside" the Iranian system. He added, "We must not eliminate people with weak religious belief on pretext of purifying society."

Khamenei admitted --- interestingly, in light of yesterday's news about the suspension of three officials --- that procedure in the Kahrizak abuse case had been slow.

0650 GMT: An Ahmadinejad-Ali Larijani Deal? Really?

Already EA correspondents are moving beyond the public face of a reconciliation between the President and the Speaker of Parliament --- considered in our special analysis this morning --- and the notion of a resolution between the Majlis and the Government is far from clear-cut.

First, the Ahmadinejad meeting with Parliament that preceded the press conference with Larijani....

The President, attending with Minister of Agriculture Sadegh Khalilian (who is under some pressure from the Majlis) and Minister of Economy Shamsoddin Hosseini, welcomed the monthly discussions. Then the questions began on topics which have been long-standing and growing sources of dispute: privatisation, proper implementation of laws, cultural problems (hijab), and the possible impeachment of Khalilian.

That in itself was a bit of a climb-down for Ahmadinejad, who had balked at given an account of his meetings, but it cut off an initiative by some MPs for formal questioning of the President. This, as well as the Supreme Leader's intervention on Wednesday, lay behind the good-news statements that followed the meeting: Ali Larijani said the Majlis has made the first step for unity of powers, while Ahmadinejad declared, "If you make good laws, the Government will implement them."

Whether that reconcililation holds is another issue. In the meeting, Ahmadinejad faced challenges, such as Mohammad Ebrahim Nekounam insisting on the Government's "duty" to implement Majlis legislation and Gholam-Ali Hadad Adel insisting that the President's enforcement of the "hijab and chastity project" is absolutely necessary. (As always, make what you will of the fact that this description is appearing in Khabar Online, linked to Ali Larijani.)

And there are signals of persistence, if not defiance, from each side. The President has given his Chief of Staff --- Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai --- a prime target for the criticisms of conservative MPs --- yet another post, appointing him as special representative for the Near East. (There have also been appointments for Asia, the Caspian Sea area, and Afghanistan.)

From the Parliamentary side, Mohammad Karami-Rad said that a meeting with Minister of Agriculture Khalilian, postponed because of Wednesday's discussions with the Supreme Leader, will take place and the Majlis will proceed with moves for impeachment.

0640 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Persian2English publishes a letter from Sepideh Pooraghaiee, a friend and colleague of Shiva Nazar Ahari, about the deatined human rights activist and journalist:

Shiva Nazar Ahari has acted very distinguishably throughout the years. She never allowed intimidations and threats to turn into an impenetrable dam against her sacred efforts. Along with her bravery and clarity, she also was calm, patient and hopeful. She never expected to be praised. She never compromised with the resolution of a problem, however small, for a human being.

Nazar Ahari has been imprisoned since July 2009 and reportedly faces a charge of "mohareb" (war against God), which carried the death penalty.

0630 GMT: A Kurdish Political Perspective. Rooz Online carries an interview with the head of the Komeleh Party, Abdollah Mohtadi. The opening exchange:

Rooz: The Komeleh Party and the Green Movement! Is this not strange?

Abdollah Mohtadi: No, I do not believe it to be strange. I view the green movement to be a rightful and democratic movement, and we support any such movement. Even though this movement has not cut its nuptial cord from people who I think are official reformers and is still connected to them, I do not view the green movement to be the simple extension and continuation of what has been known as the reformist path in Iran. On the contrary, I believe that impasse of that model of reforms and ineffectiveness of its methods in its confrontation of dictatorship and the inability of reforms to create change at the top, has caused the green movement to take shape from the bottom through the public to attain its demands.

0615 GMT: We begin today with a special analysis: has the Supreme Leader mediated a political compromise between President Ahmadinejad and Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani? And is the Ahmadinejad-Larijani profession of co-operation more than a temporary, public measure?

Meanwhile....

Political Prisoner Watch

This week we have been noting the case of Abed Tavancheh, the student activist sentenced to one year in prison. To put further pressure on him, Iranian authorities have threatened to seize his family's home.

Now, according to Tavancheh's Facebook page --- as relayed to EA by a reader --- a deal has been proposed. The activist has been told that he should be at home on Wednesday, so agents accompanied by the relative who posted the house as bail can raid it and detain him. This way the relative has made a sign of co-operation and the house will not be confiscated.

Academic Corner

Students at Zanjan University staged a sit-in protest on Sunday to protest the firing of Professor Yousef Sobouti.

UPDATED Iran Special: Have Ahmadinejad and Ali Larijani Kissed and Made Up?

UPDATE 1120 GMT: The latest signals, brought to us by EA contacts inside and outside Iran....

The Islamic Republic of Iran News Network is loudly featuring the "co-operation" proclaimed at yesterday's Larijani-Ahmadinejad press conference. At the same time, Iranian media are highlighting the appointment of Ahmadinejad Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai as special representative for the Middle East, while largely ignoring the other three special representatives who were named.

There has no mention of the suspension of Saeed Mortazavi as a Presidential aide, apart from the opposition site Rah-e-Sabz. Media in Iran continue to say only that three officials have been removed from their posts because of alleged complicity in the Kahrizak Prison abuses.

UPDATE 0930 GMT: We have rounded up the developments around the Ahmadinejad-Larijani press conference, assessing whether they point to co-operation or further tension, in our LiveBlog at 0650 GMT.

The two pieces of news that livened up --- yes, even more than the President's "Ambassador of Death For Peace" speech introducing a model of Iran's drone bomber, Karrar --- our Sunday....

1. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, after a formal meeting between the Government and the Parliament, hold a joint press conference in which they stress the need for co-operation between the Presidency, the Majlis, and the judiciary to address Iran's internal problems.

2. Saeed Mortazavi, who was Tehran Prosecutor General during the 2009 election and until the autumn, who found refuge under pressure as an aide to Ahmadinejad, has been suspended from his post --- along with two judges --- for his alleged role in the post-election abuses at Kahrizak Prison.

And a reminder....

3. On Wednesday, after months of tension between the heads of his three Government branches, the Supreme Leader met with Ali Larijani, Ahmadinejad, and head of judiciary Sadegh Larijani.

Ayatollah Khamenei hasn't sent me a morning e-mail to confirm this, but I'm still going to play Make-the-Connections....

The Supreme Leader tells his three politicians that enough is enough. The factional quarrels within the establishment are preventing a common front at a time when Iran faces serious economic problems, in part because of sanctions, and the decision whether to proceed with talks --- including with Washington --- on the nuclear programme.

But both Larijanis, apart from any personal rivalry and difficulties with the President, have a long set of grievances against Ahmadinejad's men going back to last summer. There have been accusations of economic mismanagement, corruption, mis-handling of the post-election crisis, and complicity in the abuse and killing of detainees.

It's not going to be possible to address all those issues, even with the Supreme Leader as the mediator, at a single session. So a sign is needed. A sign that can come through a sacrifice of one of the President's men, someone who symbolises the problems caused by the Government's own mis-steps.

Three nominees for Fall Guy spring to mind. There is Ahmadinejad's Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, who has brought some serious dislike upon his head with his statements, his protection from his brother-in-law (M. Ahmadinejad), and his accumulation of posts with both nominal and very real influence and control of money. He has already been at the centre of a dispute between the President and the Supreme Leader, which ended last summer from his step-down from 1st Vice President only to become Ahmadinejad's top aide weeks later.

There's current 1st Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi, who is suspected by many conservatives of involvement with suspect financial schemes, including the Fatemi Street insurance fraud. Rahimi has also played Foreign Policy Expert with some curious statements in recent weeks and succeeded only in unsettling Iran's diplomacy, as well as looking a bit of a fool.

And there's Mortazavi, who is blamed by key conservatives for the Kahrizak debacle, which in turn is a symbol for the sprawling system of detention and alleged abuse that has continued long past the summer of 2009. One of those who died in Kahrizak was the son of the campaign manager, Abdulhossein Ruholamini, of the 2009 election bid of Mohsen Rezaei, former head of the Revolutionary Guard and current Secretary of the Expediency Council.

Rahim-Mashai, because of personal ties, his accumulation of influence, and his symbolic position as Presidential right-hand-man,  is still too important for Ahmadinejad to let go of him. The departure of Rahimi, despite the dislike he has provoked and the seriousness of the corruption charges, might not have enough political significance to make an impact.

So Mortazavi was tapped on the shoulder, the sacrifice that brings a respite in the squabble between Ali Larijani and Ahmadinejad, Parliament and Government.

But is that a long-term lull? And is more of a public show at a time when Iran's international opponents as well as the supposedly-dead opposition movement are drawing conclusions from the rifts within the establishment?

Let's go with "temporary" respite. And let's watch to see if Mortazavi is only the first Fall Guy.

The Latest from Iran (22 August): Ahmadinejad Aide Mortazavi Suspended?

2055 GMT: The Suspension of the President's Man. Radio Zamaneh is now carrying the report from Rah-e-Sabz that former Tehran Prosecutor General Saeed Mortazavi and two judges have been suspended by the judiciary because of an alleged connection with the post-election abuses in Kahrizak Prison (see 1310 GMT).

The attorney of Amir Javadifar, one of the Kahrizak victims, gave the news to Rah-e-Sabz. Mortazavi has not been named, to our knowledge, by any media inside Iran.

2040 GMT: Larijani & Ahmadinejad Striking a Deal? This will be our lead update in the morning, given its potential significance, but might as well bring it out tonight.



Islamic Republic News Agency is claiming, from its "political reporter", that President Ahmadinejad and Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani --- after a meeting between Government and the Majlis --- have held a joint press conference, calling for the co-operation of the executive, legislative, and judicial branches. Larijani noted the need to work together for solutions on political, economic, and agricultural issues.

After the escalating friction over months between Larijani, accompanied by high-powered Parliamentary allies, and Ahmadinejad and his inner circle, has the Supreme Leader brought reconciliation with his meeting on Wednesday with both men and with the head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani?

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The Latest from Iran (21 August): Nuclear Games and Questions

1920 GMT: Nuclear Front. Tucked away in The New York Times report on Saturday's opening of the Bushehr nuclear plant was this intriguing statement from the head of Russia’s Rosatom state nuclear power company, Sergei Kiriyenko:

He....announced that Russia would provide Iran with iodine and molybdenum, nuclear isotopes used in medicine. It was unclear what effect this would have on efforts to dissuade Iran from enriching uranium to a higher grade than is needed in electrical power plants so that it could be used in a research reactor in Tehran that produces medical isotopes.

In other words, will Iran withdraw its demand that it be allowed to enrich uranium to 20%, at least while discussions proceed on a long-term deal over the nuclear programme? And is Washington up-to-speed and supportive of the Russian move?

1900 GMT: Supreme Leader's Corner. Parleman News, drawing from Ayatollah Khamenei's website, offers a full summary of his three-hour meeting today with representatives of 12 different student organisations.

1800 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Ali Jamali and Hassan Asadi-Zaidabadi, two senior members of the student alumni organisation Advar Tahkim Vahdat, were arrested this afternoon.

1310 GMT: Mortazavi Falls? Forget the Bushehr nuclear plant and the "Ambassador of Death" drone bomber: this could be the news of the weekend.

Rah-e-Sabz is reporting that former Tehran Prosecutor General Saeed Mortazavi and two other senior officials have been suspended from their posts after an Iranian court ruled they had a part in the post-election abuses at Kahrizak Prison, in which three detainees are officially acknowledged to have been killed.

There is political significance far beyond the legal decision. Mortazavi moved from the prosecutor's post to the President's office, where he was an aide offically overseeing campaigns against drugs and smuggling. For months, as we have highlighted on EA, opponents of the President --- both amongst reformists and within conservative ranks --- have been aiming at Mortazavi. Removing him would put a chink in Ahmadinejad's political armour.

1200 GMT: Nuclear Sideshow. Iranian state media --- Islamic Republic News Agency, Fars News, Iranian Students News Agency --- highlight repeated allegations from the Ministry of Intelligence that Hossein Mousavian, Iran's Deputy Secretary of the National Security Council (and thus deputy negotiator on nuclear issues), "has provided aliens with classified information and this is a clear case of espionage".

Moussavian was jailed in 2007 on espionage charges but later released on bail.

The statement points to a continuing internal battle over the nuclear position: earlier this week the head of Iran's atomic energy organisation, Ali Akbar Salehi, said there was no proof that Moussavian has ever been involved in espionage.

1005 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. The International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran details the campaign against student activist Abed Tavancheh, which includes not only arrest and a one-year prison sentence but also confiscation of the family home.

Rassoul Badaghi, a member of the Board of Directors of the Iranian Teachers’ Association and of the Unity Council for Democracy and Human Rights in Iran, has been sentenced to six years in prison and a five-year ban on partisan activities.

The wife of labour activist Mansour Osanloo has confirmed that he has received an additional one-year sentence for "propagating against the regime", added to his earlier five-year sentence. Osanloo has been in detention since July 2007.

1000 GMT: The Nuclear Talks. Is this the answer to our head-scratching this week about the apparent conflict between the Supreme Leader's statement on Wednesday (my reading: "No talks until the US pulls back sanctions) and President Ahmadinejad's Thursday interview ("Talks as early as late August or early September")?

Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, who took a firm line against Ahmadinejad when the President pushed multilateral discussions last autumn, said Sunday that Iran is keen to hold negotiations with the world. That is, with all the world except the United States.

“The US's fraudulent arrogance has led to its fake narcissism. The Americans falsely think that their overstatements about regional nations and the Iranians will bear fruits," Larijani said.

On the surface, that appears a blunt attempt to split European powers from Washington. It's also, I suggest, a futile attempt since France, Germany, and the UK are not going to sit down at the table unless the Americans are supportive.

So is Larijani too short-sighted to note this or did he effectively put out a "spoiler" against any discussions? And did he consult with Ayatollah Khamenei before making the statement?

0940 GMT: Tough Talk Today Special. We've posted a special feature on Iran's unveiling of a new drone bomber which, we happily predict, will soon be called an "Ambassador of Death".

0715 GMT: The Music (of Protest) Still Plays. In July 2009, weeks after the Presidential election, we posted a video of U2 playing "Sunday, Bloody Sunday" in Barcelona as a tribute to demands for justice and rights in Iran.

From Helsinki on Friday:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VQ5_M-iPw7U[/youtube]

0635 GMT: Is This the Definition of Irony? An Iranian blog claims that during Saturday's celebration of the introduction of uranium rods into Iran's first nuclear plant at Bushehr, parts of the city lost power in 50-degree Celsius (122-degree Fahrenheit) heat.

0615 GMT: We begin this morning by noting yet another attempted intimidation of senior clerics who have been critical of the Government. Kalemeh reports that a crowd surrounded the main mosque in Shiraz after Friday Prayers, shouting slogans against Grand Ayatollah Dastgheib.

There have been several gatherings since the election against Dastgheib. In December, the protestors damaged and defaced the walls of the mosque complex, and Dastgheib temporarily left his offices.

Meanwhile....

Sanctions Watch

Peyke Iran claims that foreign automobile manufacturers Mercedes, Toyota, and BMW have stopped trade with Iran and that Hyundai might follow.

The Mothers of Protest

An Iranian website has published the statement of the Mothers of Mourning, who have restated their opposition to the post-election injustices, abuses, and killings and have renamed themselves the Mothers of Laleh Park.

The mothers, many of whom have had children who were imprisoned or slain during the conflict, began gathering last summer in Tehran's Laleh Park every Saturday, despite pressure from security forces and occasional detentions.