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Entries in Green Movement (12)

Wednesday
Dec162009

UPDATED "Where is My Vote?" (Part 2): TIME Snubs Green Movement as "Person of the Year"

IRAN TIMEUPDATE 0925 GMT: US National Public Radio is conducting a parallel poll, so far without throwing out "Iran Protesters".

President Obama is the Leader of the Others, with 2% of the vote. Yep, 2%. He's got a way to go to catch those pesky Protesters, who are on 93%.

United4Iran offers comments on the Time affair.

UPDATE 0800 GMT: Iran News Now has a spirited investigation of Time's poll and the dropping of "Iran's Protesters" from the final list for Person of the Year.

It may not rank with the alleged theft of June's Presidential election, but Time magazine just put itself in the role of vote-stealing villain for many supporters of Iran's Green Wave.

Yesterday Time put out the press release:
The seven finalists [for Time's Person of the Year] include Apple [Computers] CEO Steve Jobs, US Federal Reserve Charman [sic] Ben Bernanke, US Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, Jamaican Sprinter and Olympic Gold Medalist Usain Bolt, Commander of US Forces in Afghanistan General Stanley McChrystal and US President Barack Obama.

Also making the lists is "the Chinese worker," a group of people whom TIME says "are an increasingly influential group in one of the world's most powerful economies".

The Latest from Iran (15 November): The Path to Moharram



All credible candidates for the honour of the figure or group who has made a significant impact on the world in 2009 - except maybe the one whose claim is that he runs really, really fast. But the news is who didn't make the final cut from 10 nominees. Apparently "the Iranian People" didn't match up to an American Congresswoman, the man leading the US Long War in Central Asia, or the iPhone guy, let alone an assembly-line machinist in Beijing.

Still, even that rejection might have fluttered into cyber-space had it not been for Time's perverse tribute to democracy.

To boost attention to the award, the magazine held an on-line poll: the top US money-man Bernanke, for example, finished 6th with more than 63,000 votes; computer-whiz Jobs was 3rd with almost 87,000. (Bizarrely, given yesterday's outcome, Pelosi and "the Chinese worker" were not even among the nominees.) The runner-up in the vote was US President Barack Obama, who must be pleased with just under 112,000 endorsements.

But the winner in the poll? With 573,561 votes --- more than a 5:1 margin over Obama --- "Iran Protesters".

So how did Time achieve what Mahmoud Ahmadinejad cannot, making the Green Movement disappear after a supposedly full and fair election? Well, the magazine did put up the caveat, "TIME's editors reserve the right to disagree." And here is the likely explanation:
[While] their courage and determination in the face of a brutal government crackdown demonstrated the depth of their willingness to fight for what they believed in....any hopes that the protests would usher in a flowering of Iranian democracy were shattered by the violent reprisals. And as time went on, it became clear that opposition movement leaders like Mir-Hossein Mousavi were not seeking a clean break with the Islamic Republic, as many Western observers had hoped.

Sorry, folks, you were kinda cute, as well as kinda valiant, in the summer. You might even have spurred an outpouring of popular support as you persisted. But, for Time, your demonstrations no longer exist because you couldn't deliver a "regime change" winding the clock in Iran back to 1978.

Long live democracy. Go away, democracy.
Tuesday
Dec152009

Iran: A Beginner's Guide to Moharram

MOHARRAM2EA correspodent Mr Azadi offers an introduction to EA readers (and to me, as I confused Moharram and Ashura in a post I wrote last week) of the religious month of Moharram, which is likely to be marked by opposition protests:

Moharram and the message of Karbala

One of the significant events for Shia Islam is the first month of the Islamic calendar, Moharram, with its meanings and rituals. It was on the 10th day of Moharram, known as Ashura, that Hussain, the third Imam of Shiites, was killed at Karbala, now located in Iraq.

The Latest from Iran (15 December): The Path to Moharram



Historical Background

The killing of Hussain at Karbala, which took place in Moharram in the year 61 in the Islamic calendar (680 AD), is one of the seminal events in the development of Shi'a Islam.

Hussain had refused an alliance with Yazid, the caliph, and declared that Yazid’s administration and government were not legitimate because they were not following the Prophet Mohammad’s manner and path. As Hussain was the only living grandson of the Prophet, his refusal to pledge allegiance could jeopardize Yazid’s position. The caliph put an ultimatum to Hussain: acceptance of his supremacy or death.

Hussain had announced that he had no intention of starting a war, but Yazid left him with no choice, Hussain, his family, and his companions met more than 5000 troops of Yazid’s army in Karbala. Hussain’s 72 companions and his family were all slain.

Hussainian Ideology

Hussain's attitude and his martyrdom have provided an ideological framework for liberating movements which identify with the event of Karbala as a stand against injustice. This ideological framework includes refusal to accept an illegitimate government, disclosing injustice, and protesting against it. It does not matter how few are in a protesting movement, for it must rise against tyranny and injustice, even if there is no immediate result.

Shiites believe that as long as there is injustice in the world, Hussain’s path is alive and must be followed: “Every day is Ashura, and every land is Karbala.” clearly declares this Hussainian ideology.

Reviving Hussain

During its history, Shiism has tried to revive the ideology and the message of Karbala in various ways, most importantly through the mourning ritual. Remembrance of Hussain, his words and message, his view and ideology, his death, and the events surrounding that death are the main parts of these rituals, which both speculative and emotional aspects.

During Moharram, people gathering in mosques or other places to listen to clergy and lecturers explain the message of Karbala and Hussain’s actions and death. In these holy ceremonies, Shiites also use symbols for the main aspects of Karbala. Flags are in three colors: red (for blood and dying for beliefs), green (for the Prophet’s family), and black (for sadness and mourning).

Moharram and Iran’s Islamic Revolution

Iran's Islamic Revolution of 1979 was based on Hussainian ideology. Imam Khomeini declared that Moharram had kept the movement alive, identifying it with the rise against the tyranny and injustice of the Shah, the 20th-century Yazid. Clergy and speakers turned Muharram from a month of mourning into a political platform for reform of the Iranian system. Iranian worshipers, adorned in black and singing of sadness, demonstrated against the Shah throughout the month, especially on the 9th and 10th days, Tasua and Ashura.

The meanings of Muharram and Ashura were reinforced during the "imposed war" (1980-88) with Iraq. In Hussainian ideology, sacrificing a life for your beliefs was more valuable than living under tyranny. Iranians identified their martyrs with the martyrs of Karbala in their ceremonies and their literature.

Muharram and Green Movement

Basing on Hussain’s goal, “reforming the Islamic society and re-establishing it with justice and Islamic values”, Iran's Green Movement draws upon Hussainian ideology to achieve its aims. Thus Muharram provides the movement with the great opportunity to rejuvenate itself through the symbol and ideas of Karbala.

The first message? Do not stay quiet, no matter how many (or few) you are or how strong your opponents may be. The second lesson? There may not be an immediate result, but the true victory is the raising of voices against injustice, a stand that will forever remain within history.
Monday
Dec142009

The Latest from Iran (14 December): Taking Stock

IRAN GREEN1745 GMT: Swinging Wildly. A couple of punches from regime supporters this afternoon. The Supreme Leader's representative to the Revolutionary Guard, told Presidential staff that the Khomeini Archive, run by the late Imam's family, is "a base for monafeghin (hypocrites)". The term "monafeghin" is commonly used to refer to the Mujahedin-e-Khalq, the group which has tried to overthrow the Islamic Republic since 1979, often through violence.

And Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi took aim at Hashemi Rafsanjani. Yazdi claimed that, when he was head of Iran's judiciary, Rafsanjani asked him to cover up a criminal case against the former President's daughter, Faezeh Hashemi. Yazdi also questioned the intellectual credentials of Mir Hossein Mousavi.

1604 GMT: Confirming the Sentence. We had learned days ago that economist and journalist Saeed Laylaz had been sentenced to nine years in prison. The break-down of the sentence has been released: five years for acts against national security by holding meetings with foreign embassy officials, one year for participating in the protest march of 15 June; two years (and 74 lashes) for insulting officials, one year for propagandizing against the Establishment in his economic analyses over the last eight years.

1558 GMT: Pushing the Issue. For the first time in months, Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi have requested a permit for a march from the Ministry of Interior.

NEW Latest Iran Video: And Your University Protests Today…. (14 December)
NEW Latest Iran Video: Challenging the Regime’s Forces on 16 Azar (7 December)
NEW Iran: Scott Lucas in La Stampa on “Khamenei’s Final Warning”

NEW Iran: “Arrests” and the Regime’s Sword of Damocles
Iran Analysis: Sifting the Propaganda – Government About to Arrest Opposition Leaders?
Latest Videos from Iran’s Universities (13 December)

The Latest from Iran (13 December): Bubbling Over?

1555 GMT: Sanctions? Oops! "A senior official says that a meeting by five world powers on Iran's nuclear program has been canceled due to China's opposition.

The U.S., Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany had planned to meet Friday. The official from one of the five world powers demanded anonymity Monday because his information was confidential.

The meeting was to be in Brussels or on the sidelines of the Copenhagen summit." (hat-tip to EA reader)

1510 GMT: Josh Shahryar's latest Green Brief, covering Sunday's events, is now out, covering protests at up to nine Iranian universities, the threat of arrests, and the Supreme Leader's speech, amongst other events.

1500 GMT: There's Mahmoud! The President has met our concerns about his absence (0905 and 0725 GMT) from the domestic crisis with this comment, "The enemies of the Iranian nation are now frustrated and want to take revenge through insulting the country's sanctities....The enemies should fear the typhoon of the Iranian people's anger." Ahmadinejad accused the opposition of being "against the nation" and "agents of foreigners".

1215 GMT: Your New Top Story (if You're Not in Iran). Looks like the "Western" media will surge this morning with a single sentence from Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki at a news conference, passed on by the Associated Press via The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times: the three US hikers detained this summer in Iran had "suspicious aims" and will go on trial. CBS News is now headlining, and CNN now "confirms" (cracking journalism since the press conference was hours ago).

1050 GMT: The Regime's Scramble. A reader reminds us that the Peyke Iran "exclusive" (0915 GMT), on the Armed Forces self-confessed failing to contain the opposition, is from a memorandum from September after the Qods Days protests. The question that prompts is whether, again in light of our analysis this morning, the Armed Forces would revise that assessment three months later.

1040 GMT: The Regime Persists. I guess the Government can't just step away from its "burning Khomeini" game, despite all the complications it has caused. Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi has claimed that several people have been arrested over the incident.

1030 GMT: Don't Give Them an Excuse. Mir Hossein Mousavi has moved to pre-empt any regime pretext for a crackdown, such as the alleging burning of Khomeini's image, as well as to contain any notion of a "radical" opposition: "From now on all protests and demands should be pursued peacefully and lawfully. Nobody among us should make a pretext for those who are against people."

Mousavi then renewed the "peaceful" challenge:

People have a right to question, they should not be confronted violently....If people's questions were answered and they were not confronted violently we would not see some controversial moves today. People want an end of the security-obsessed atmosphere as in such an atmosphere radicalism grows.

0915 GMT: Analysis Confirmed, Regime Scrambling To Contain Opposition? An EA reader, commenting on our morning analysis about the weekend's threat of arrests, points out a Peyke Iran story: the article claims to have an admission from Iran's Armed Forces that it has failed to contain the Green Movement.

The report from the General Staff allegedly evaluates that the Green Movement has not been fostered by foreign intervention and that it is not following a specific political agenda but is a social and cultural movement. The officers say that, despite isolating the movement's leaders (Mousavi, Karroubi, and Khatami), the opposition has persisted. Efforts to out-number and overwhelm the demonstrators through counter-protests of Government workers have been hindered by the apathy of the workers or, in some cases, their refusal to heed the call.

An interesting note: the General Staff evaluates that women have been the chief instigators of the protests.

0905 GMT: The Regime Keeps On Spinning. Press TV puts out a boiler-plate story under a dramatic headline, "Figures slam sacrilege of Imam Khomeini portrait". We reported almost all of the comments in yesterday's updates but there is one interesting addition today, in light of our question (0725 GMT), "Where's Mahmoud?".  "Iran's President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, on Tuesday described the incident as an 'objectionable' move 'that he wished he had never witnessed'."

Hmm, that's six days ago, which is about six years on the calendar of Iranian political developments --- what's Mahmoud been doing since then?

0725 GMT: After a weekend of tension which did not culminate in 1) high-profile arrests or 2) a resolution of the mysterious letter/audio purportedly from Iranian army units ready to "stand with the people" if violence continues but did point to the persistence of protest on university campuses, it is a morning to pause and assess. We have a special analysis on the meaning of the regime's threat, capped by the Supreme Leader's speech yesterday, to vanquish the opposition once and for all.

There's also an important related issue for us to consider before an analysis tomorrow: Where's Mahmoud? It's notable that, in all the public manoeuvres of the last few days, President Ahmadinejad has been off to the side, meeting foreign delegations and waving his fist on the nuclear issue but saying little about the internal situation. Is he being politically sensible in standing back from the front line or has he been put to the side by others, i.e., the Supreme Leader, returning to the shadows that he occupied in the early weeks of this crisis?

Much of this is beyond the "Western" media. The New York Times, for example, has a good article by Michael Slackman this morning on the "burning" of the image of Imam Khomenei. Unfortunately, it's a piece already overtaken by events --- Slackman never notes the threat of arrests of opposition leaders and thus the wider significance of Ayatollah Khamenei's Sunday address.

CNN is just catching up with the "We Are All Majids/All in Hejab" protest over the detention of Majid Tavakoli.  The Times of London, meanwhile, is going off on one of its regular sensational strolls in the nuclear woods, claiming from mysterious (and unnamed) sources and buttressing the claim with Israeli comment, "Secret document exposes Iran’s nuclear trigger".
Tuesday
Dec082009

Iran Special: Putting 16 Azar In Context

16 AZAR TEHRAN3EA correspondent Mr Smith explores the meaning behind yesterday's protests, and looks ahead to the next wave of demonstrations:

In Iran's never ending calendar of public events and commemorations, 16 Azar, or National Student's Day, could hardly have passed without a serious confrontation erupting between the Ahmadinejad regime and the student population of Iran. Protests against Ahmadinejad on 7 December preceded by almost three years the electoral drama of June. In 2006, the president made an ill-fated trip to the Polytechnic, only to be shouted down by students chanting one of the symbolic slogans of today - Marg bar Diktator, or "Death to the Dictator".

The Latest from Iran (8 December): The Half-Full Victory?

The students were therefore motivated and cohesive in their turn-out yesterday. Brazenly defying the heightened security atmosphere, which led to yet another round of arrests amongst activists in the past few weeks and the presence of heavy-handed security forces over all central Tehran yesterday, tens of thousands of students took control of prestigious campuses such as the Polytechnic, University of Tehran, Sharif and Ahmadinejad's own alma mater, Science and Technology University. Indeed, their presence was so overwhelming that the security forces tactfully remained on the sidelines, conducting arrests just outside university perimeters and harrassing ordinary people who attempted to join the protestors within campuses. It was therefore a manifestation of the character and resilience of the opposition, which is now capable of organising spontaneous large scale demonstration through the mobilisation of only part of its forces (students in this case), and does not even consult with the leadership nor require them to be on the streets. In this sense, the potential of the Green wave of today is higher than the gigantic crowds that drove the Shah from power at the end of 1978, which crucially relied upon a highly organised and effectively clerical-secular leadership.

Despite refinements in the repressive tactics of security forces, which have essentially managed to contain killings in streets past June 20 and deployed taser guns rather than live bullets yesterday, the continuation of large-scale protests inevitably will force the top leadership to accept that the legitimacy of its rule now hangs on a threads and dismissing the protesters as dirt, dust or small-fry is simply a blatant lie. This could in turn lead the Ahmadinejad-Khamenei regime to increasing equip itself with the hallmarks of a veritable police state like Baathist Syria and do away with the limited pluralism that has not entirely disappeared after the elections.

Yesterday also witnessed, however, the rise to prominence of more radical elements of the Green wave. Footage and anecdotal evidence of strong sentiment against Ayatollah Khamenei and the principles of the Islamic Republic were circulated widely on the Internet. This is a potentially worrying development for Mousavi and the reformist leadership, which is attempting to ward off accusations that it intends to get rid of the Islamic Republic altogether. The broadcasting of the footage can hence be embarassing for Mousavi and Karroubi and, seperately, reveals the disparate nature of the forces that are grouped, within the country, in what is known as the Green wave. This in turn raises compelling questions for Mousavi and Karroubi. Six months on, their repeated appeals for a negotiated political situation to the crisis, occasionally backed by Hashemi Rafsanjani, have fallen on deaf ears. Their gradualism is producing discontent, and could be the reason for the need to revise strategy by Mousavi and Karroubi.
The horizon, however, does not bode well for the regime. Moharram starts in 10 days time, and Ashoura and Tasua beckon. The two days saw 4 million people in the streets at the end of 1978, undermining the Shah's regime's legitimacy once and for all. This is a historic event the current Tehran leadership won't fondly remember.
Thursday
Dec032009

The Latest from Iran (3 December): Normal Service?

16-AZAR-POSTER2000 GMT: What War Game is The Economist Playing Out? The British journal has an "analysis" which, given the publication's usual journalistic standards, is shocking: "An Iranian nuclear bomb, or the bombing of Iran?"

The piece starts with a series of false steps and distortions to get from premise --- the second enrichment plant at Fordoo near Qom --- to conclusion: "brazen", "belligerent" Iran is "on the threshold of becoming a nuclear (military) power". That's pnly a prelude, however, to "news" posing as advocacy of Bomb, Bomb Iran.

The journal gives unwarranted prominence to a road show by two former US Senators and a former Air Force General who are talking up a strike and then intones, "Israel’s threats of military action might be more credible than America’s". That allows The Economist to play big boys with big toys, sketching out how a military attack might unfold, before offering a most sensible "compromise":
So which will it be: a war with Iran, or a nuclear-armed Iran? Short of a revolution that sweeps away the Iranian regime—ushering in one that agrees, like post-apartheid South Africa, to give up its nuclear technology—sanctions may offer the only hope of avoiding the awful choice.

1940 GMT: Strike. A statement from the "Lawyers of the Green Movement of Iranian People" calls for strikes as "a civil action for acquiring one’s rights" and adds this summary of the movement: "The Green Movement doesn’t belong to anybody. Its leaders are different shades of people that are gathered around democracy. It is the people that are leading the movement."

Any information about this initiative would be appreciated, as the group is new to us.

1920 GMT: Preventing 16 Azar. An article in Deutsche Welle summarises that more than 90 students have been arrested in the last three weeks. The International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran outlines some of the cases of the "stepped up persecution and prosecution of student activists throughout the country".

1910 GMT: A Signal from the Leader? An EA reader tips us off that Ayatollah Khomeini's office has distributed copies, not published before, of a Supreme Leader speech from this summer reminding members of Parliament of their proper role and responsibilities.

Now, this would have no connection whatsoever with the troublesome rebellion of more than a few legislators against the Ahmadinejad Government, right?

NEW Iran, the Greens, and the ex-Bushman: With Washington Friends Like These, Who Needs….?
Latest Iran Video: A Non-Crowd for Ahmadinejad in Isfahan? (2 December)
Iran: English Text of Ayatollah Montazeri’s Answers on the Green Movement
The Latest from Iran (2 December): Postures and a Resolution

1810 GMT: Any Connection Here? On the same day that a Government minister threatened his son with arrest and trial, Hashemi Rafsanjani put forth another general criticism of that Government: "Today there is no room to hide the matter. The difficulties presented by the political disputes are grave."

Rafsanjani also repeated a call for national unity, linking it to support of Ayatollah Khameini: "I believe there is no one other that the Leader of the Revolution who can bring about unity and we should all assist the leader to create a sympathetic atmosphere where people can be satisfied.” He refrained, however, from specific reference to a National Unity Plan or any demands upon the regime.

So here's the question --- does Rafsanjani reverse his strategy of the last three months and go on an offensive or does he continue with an effective boycott, refusing official functions and duties such as Friday Prayers apart from his leadership of the Expediency Council?

1600 GMT: It's the Economy, Folks. A belated hat-tip to Robert Worth of The New York Times, who published an article on Wednesday about the issues surrounding President Ahmadinejad's proposals for subsidy reform.

1545 GMT: "Soft War" = Less Music, No Make-Up. The head of the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, Ezatollah Zarghami, has announced that the state outlet will focus on fighting a soft war against Iran's enemies.

In that cause, the new five-year work plan includes: reduced use of music, protection of women through prohibition of make-up, use of more debates, the training of devoted and experienced staff, "a revolutionary and ultra-conservative atmosphere", the spread of hope about the future of the establishment and the raising of public awareness about the positive services provided by it, and the provision of models of the correct lifestyle with a focus on the importance of family values. (Summary at Tehran Bureau)

1515 GMT: Going After Hashemi. According to Rah-e-Sabz, Minister of Intelligence Heydar Moslehi is calling for the arrest and trial of Hashemi Rafsanjani's son, Mehdi Hashemi.

1250 GMT: American Tough Guy. National Security Advisor James Jones has laid down the law to Tehran:

By the end of the year we should be able to ascertain what Iran's true colors are on this, and the end of the year is coming. We're still hopeful. The door is still open, but the window is closing.

No coincidence that the Obama officials pushing hardest for sanctions on Iran are located in Jones' National Security Council.

1145 GMT: Two new posts following up our initial update at 0600 GMT --- a full English translation of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri's answers on the Green Movement and a video apparently showing a lack of turnout for President Ahmadinejad's speech in Isfahan.

1130 GMT: Mahmoud in a Mood. The President is being just a bit defiant today. He has declared that as Parliament changed his proposal for subsidy reforms, he won't implement the law. (Reuters has an English summary.)

1120 GMT: Dissing Rafsanjani, Defying Khamenei? According to the reformist Parleman News, the President is refusing to attend Expediency Council meetings chaired by Hashemi Rafsanjani, who is the Head of the Council, even though the Supreme Leader has ordered him to do so.

1020 GMT: Conflicting reports on the Damascus explosion. Most reports still say several dead, but Syrian Minister of Interior is insisting that only three people died after a tyre exploded.

0950 GMT: Protest of the Week. An EA source reveals:

"Last week Mr Ramin, the Deputy Minister of Culture and Islamic Guidance, who was attending the memorial for former Minister Ali Kordan, could not find his shoes when leaving the mosque.

"It seems someone stole Ramin’s shoes to protest Ahmadinejad’s policy toward the press."

0940 GMT: Reuters is reporting six dead in the Damascus blast.

Meanwhile, in Tehran, it appears that the rumours of the scapegoating and even imprisonment of former Tehran Prosecutor General Saeed Mortazavi for post-election abuses can be put to rest. He has been named the President's Inspector General.

0930 GMT: Have just landed in UK to learn of the bomb in Damascus killing Iiranian pilgrims. Update on that and other stories in next hour.

0630 GMT: Protest of the Week. An EA source reveals:

"Last week Mr Ramin, the Deputy Minister of Culture and Islamic Guidance, who was attending the memorial for former Minister Ali Kordan, could not find his shoes when leaving the mosque.

"It seems someone stole Ramin’s shoes to protest Ahmadinejad’s policy toward the press."

0620 GMT: The Road to 16 Azar? Confirming news from Tuesday: more than 3000 students of Tehran University have invited Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karoubi to participate in demonstrations on 16 Azar (7 December) in the Technical Faculty.

In Parliament, the leading reformist party, the Imam Khomeini Line (Reformists) held a press conference. Hussein Hashemian, the head of the party, said, "We follow Iranian people and in their belief the election is not over. This is why we follow up on their protests." Mohammad Reza Taabesh, the deputy leader added, "What happened after the election was due to the imprudence, inexperience, and carelessness of leaders and people in charge."

MP Dariush Ghanbari pressed the specific case of the abuses at Kahrizak Prison, declaring that Iranian people are still waiting for the open trial of the people in charge.

0610 GMT: While we catch up with internal moves and developments in Iran, international media continue to focus on the nuclear question. President Ahmadinejad furnished them with a soundbite in his Isfahan speech when he declared that Iran would now ensure that it was self-sufficient in producing 20 percent enriched uranium for its medical research reactor.

Go behind the headline and the significance emerges:

1. Ahmadinejad is now responding in an almost knee-jerk fashion. The "10 enrichment plants" declaration now apprears to be a heated reaction from Sunday's Cabinet meeting --- it is being dropped because this is a fantasy, not a plan.

2. That in turn points to an Iranian weakness which may become a hindrance for the President.

Iran's nuclear programme is clearly hindered not only by problems with enrichment capacity but also by a lack of uranium stock. Unless that can be addressed, Ahmadinejad's promises will likely be exposed as bluff.

0600 GMT: Returning from Holland this morning, with updates back to normal from 1200 GMT.

In the meantime, we're noting two stories. It looks like President Ahmadinejad, for all his global travels, is having a hard time with legitimacy at home. Despite extensive publicity for his trip to Isfahan yesterday, with schools asking parents to allow their children to attend, the crowd was far below expectations.

Ahmadinejad's reception can be compared to the far larger crowd
six months ago, when Mohammad Khatami visited Isafahan to support Mir Hossein Mousavi's Presidential campaign.

Meanwhile, more on Grand Ayatollah Montazeri’s answers to questions about the Green Movement, which we noted on Tuesday. Montazeri declared that “people will not be satisfied with anything less than their rightful demands”.

Montazeri asserted, “Killing, threatening, arresting, unlawful prosecutions, handing heavy and unfair sentences to political activists and freedom-seekers and propagating lies, will not affect people's determination.” He praised the Green Movement’s emphasis on a peaceful form of struggle against violations of people’s rights, and he also commended the Movement’s ability to draw the attention and sympathy of international human rights organizations.

Montazeri concluded by condemning the government’s treatment of post-election protesters and detainees and advised the government to respect people’s requests.