The Latest from Israel-Gaza-Palestine (27 February): Livni Rejects Netanyahu Coalition

Afternoon Update (11:30 a.m. GMT): Kadima leader Tzipi Livni says she will not join Likud's Benjamin Netanyahu in a governing coalition: Kadima will be a "responsible opposition".

Morning Update (8 a.m. GMT; 10 a.m. Israel/Palestine): The more extravagant headlines on yesterday's Palestinian "reconciliation" talks in Cairo proclaim "Vow to Release prisoners, Unify".

It's not quite that straightforward. Hamas and Fatah did agree to an effective swap of political detainees/prisoners in Gaza and the West Bank and "to stop smear campaigns in the media". The 12 Palestinian groups also agreed to form five committees on prisoners, security, and elections. The committees will begin meetings on 10 March and issue reports by the end of the month.

The question, however, is whether the leaderships of the Palestinian factions will act on those reports. On the surface, this appears to be an immediate victory for Hamas, which did not want any quick pronouncement on the make-up of a Palestinian Government. They now have time to manoeuvre, building on the upswell of support from the Gaza War, while Fatah and the Palestinian Authority scramble to recover their position.

The Obama Plan in Iraq: Today's Speech

President Obama will announce the "withdrawal" timetable today in a speech at Camp Lejeune in North Carolina. He'll announce that all combat troops will be out of Iraq within 19 months.

That is not news. What we will be looking for is, first, an indication of how quickly within the 19 months troops will be withdrawn: the spin from the US military is that few of the soldiers will come out of Iraq before national elections in December 2009.

More importantly, we'll be searching for an announcement of how many US troops, as "support" units, will be based in Iraq after the end of 2010. While media such as CNN have been distracted by the "19-month" headline, Congressional leaders such as the top Democrat in the Senate, Harry Reid, are raising questions about the long-term US presence in Iraq.

Text: President Obama's Budget

President Obama's budget document, setting out US Federal Government spending of more than $3 trillion in the next fiscal year:

Fy10 Overview

Publish at Scribd or explore others: Periodicals & Report budget Barack Obama

Fact x Importance = News: The Stories We're Watching (26 February)

Politics and the Law: Sharif Barred from Office in Pakistan

The Pakistan Supreme Court yesterday maintained a ban on former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif (pictured) from standing for election and removed his brother, Shahbaz, as Governor of Punjab Province. The decision comes a week before elections for the upper chamber of Parliament.

Demonstrations followed the decision, with Sharif supporters blaming President Asif Ali Zardari for the verdict. It is likely that they will join a Long March on 12 March, led by lawyers demanded the restoration of Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry, removed by Zardari's predecessor Pervez Musharraf.

(It would be impolite of me, since the media didn't mention it, to note the disparity in the handling of the Sharifs' case with that of Zardari. The current President was long in exile because of charges of corruption, but these were waived by the Pakistani courts last year so he could assume office.)

Somalia in Upheaval

Violence and turmoil is far from new in the African country, but the lack of an effective central government is even more apparent in recent days. Just after new President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed took up office in Mogadishu, the Islamist faction al-Shabab took control of a border town, overpowering pro-Government forces.

More than 65 people died in yesterday's fighting.

Canada Speaks on Guantanamo Bay: We're Tougher than the Brits

The Globe and Mail reports:

Ottawa won't seek the return of Omar Khadr, the only Canadian and last remaining westerner left in Guantanamo, Foreign Affairs Minister Lawrence Cannon said yesterday after meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton....

“As a matter of fact, I reiterated Canada's position on this,” said Mr. Cannon. “What I have said on numerous occasions is that this individual is allegedly a murderer and [stands] accused of terrorism.”

The Latest from Israel-Gaza-Palestine (26 February): The Cairo Talks

Afternoon Update (3:25 p.m. GMT): US envoy George Mitchell has embarked on his second tour of the Middle East, meeting Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, Likud Party leader Benjamin Netanyahu, and Prime Minister Ehud Olmert in separate meetings. 

Earlier, Mitchell was in Ankara to ensure Turkish leaders, who had criticised Israel over its conduct in the Gaza War, were on board: "Turkey is a crucial ally of the United States and an important force for peace and security in the Middle East."

This is almost a daily ritual. Two rockets fired into Israel; Israel strikes smuggling tunnels around Rafah.

Morning Update (11 a.m. GMT; 1 p.m. Israel/Palestine): The Palestinian "reconciliation" talks, involving a dozen groups but with most attention focused on Hamas and Fatah, have opened in Cairo. Egypt, after the failure of its strategy in the Gaza conflict is hoping to recover a prime position in the region with a successful outcome; its head of intelligence, Omar Suleiman (pictured), told delegates,

Everyone is looking toward you ... and hanging their hopes on you. So do not prolong the disagreement and deepen the division. Unite ranks to fulfill the hopes of all for an independent Palestinian state.

Fatah, with the Palestinian Authority's legal and political mandate in the West Bank in jeopardy, is pressing for a quick agreement on a new Palestinian government; Hamas is signalling that it will seek a longer process.

Meanwhile, in Israel, it appears that any prospect of a coaltion government of Likud, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, and Kadima, led by Tzipi Livni, has been doomed over differences on a two-state Israel-Palestine solution. Livni is insisting on a clear settlement; Netanyahu is holding out against it. Former foreign minister and Likud negotiator Silvan Shalom told Army Radio:

There is across-the-board agreement on Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas but there is a big gap between Kadima and Likud on the two states for two people. It's unsolvable.