Update: Unlikely Alliances Emerge from Iraqi Elections

Juan Cole has a very interesting revelation, via monitoring of Iraqi television, about post-election Iraqi politics:

Amir al-Kinani, head of the Independent Free People Trend, which is backed by the Al-Sadr Trend, revealed that his trend has agreed, in principle, with Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, in his capacity as head of the State of Law Coalition, to form an alliance in the governorate councils won by the two lists.

So the political followers of the cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, who have been stridently opposed to the American occupation since 2003 --- at times quite violently, are now linking up with the Prime Minister's Daw'a Party? That is quite a turnabout, given that al-Maliki risked his political future less than a year ago by working with US troops to push back the Sadrists in Baghdad's Sadr City and Basra.

Cole lays out a clear, effective explanation. Both Daw'a and the Sadrists are religious parties seeking an Islamic state. Al-Maliki, having established his authority, would like to see American forces drawn down as soon as possible, as do the Sadrists. The major disagreement between the two --- that al-Maliki has been seeking a legislative basis for the US withdrawal, while the Sadrists are opposed to any legal recognition --- was effectively put outside the political arena when the Status of Forces Agreement was pushed through at the end of December.

If I was a US military commander or political representative, I would be thinking very hard about any statement that Iraqis, or at least Iraqi political leaders, welcome a continued American presence. The alignment of coalitions isn't looking very promising for that assertion.

Today's Obamameter: The Latest in US Foreign Policy (7 February)

Latest Post: Obama vs. The Military (Part 2) - The Battle for Iraq Continues
Latest Post: Obama vs. The Military: The Battle for Afghanistan Continues
Latest Post: Twitter and the Obama Foreign Policy of Engagement: Style or Substance?

8:45 p.m. We've just put up a separate post on another heated battle between President Obama and the military, this one over Iraq.

3:15 p.m. Reports that another Iranian blogger, Omid Reza Mirsayafi, has been jailed.

3:10 p.m. Pitching in for America. In his speech at the Munich Security, NATO's Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer has backed the US call for a military "surge" in Afghanistan, criticising Europe's response: ""I'm frankly concerned when I hear the United States is planning a major commitment for Afghanistan but other allies are already ruling out doing more."

I'm not sure Scheffer appreciates that European leaders thinking the military-first initiative in Afghanistan, as a dubious if not losing cause, will drain the alliance rather than bolster it. German Chancellor Angela Merkel paid lip service to the military effort but did not commit to additional deployment, especially in southern and central Afghanistan, while French President Nicolas Sarkozy, for all his warm talk of security "from Vancouver to Vladivostok", did not mention Afghanistan at all.

3 p.m. Hope in Somalia? The new President, Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, has arrived in Mogadishu for the first time since his election. He will be holding talks with politicians, tribal elders, and Islamic resistance groups to try to establishing a functioning government.


1:40 p.m. Reason Number 452 why the Obama Plan for Iraq Withdrawal Should be Set Aside: Collapsing Oil Prices.

The latest effort from the US military to rationalise a long-term stay comes from Lieutenant General Frank Helmick, the commander of the training of Iraqi forces. Because of diminished revenues, Helmick says, "They are not going to be able to grow as fast as they want to grow."

12:15 p.m. Biden's speech is over. He finally got to the one to watch in next weeks, calling on NATO to support US efforts in Afghanistan.

12:05 p.m. Biden offers two important confirmations: "American will not torture" and "American will act aggressively against climate change".

There are also signs of an emerging and important relationship: after Nicolas Sarkozy's call this morning for a new security arrangement "from Vancouver to Vladivostok", Biden has pointedly praised France's new cooperative relationship with NATO.

And there's a jab at Russia: ""We will not recognize any nation having a sphere of influence". Specifically, US will not join Moscow in recognising the independence of South Ossetia.

11:55 a.m. Vice President Joe Biden now speaking at the Munich Security Conference. Despite the bigging up of the speech by US officials, nothing significant so far. It's pretty much a restatement of the Obama Inaugural Address and general line on issues such as Iran. Interesting but vague statement: "America will do more. That's the good news. The bad is America will ask for more cooperation."

11:30 a.m.An interesting development, given the state of play in US-Iran relations. The Department of the Treasury has designated as a terrorist organisation the Party of Free Life in Kurdistan (PEJAK), which operates against Iranian security forces to "free" the "occupied lands of Kurdistan".

Stuart Levey, U.S. Treasury Undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence, stated that PEJAK is a branch of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which is battling Turkey has been struggling. (Ali Yenidunya)

9:15 a.m. Eight Pakistani police have been killed in a bomb attack in Punjab province. In Afghanistan, the Interior Ministry claims 10 militants have been killed.

8:20 a.m. And there's a separate entry on the continuing battle between President Obama and the military over the build-up of US troops in Afghanistan.

8:10 a.m. We've just posted a separate entry on a possible State Department initiative, using Twitter, to support engagement with Iran.

Morning Update (7:45 a.m. GMT; 2:45 a.m. Washington): The Kyrgyzstan Government is not backing down on its decision to close the US Manas airbase. President Kurmanbek Bakiyev said that "all due procedures" were being pursued for a speedy conclusion.

The Government is claiming that it receives too little payment for the base. In support of its case, and to ensure public support, it is also citing ecological concerns and highlighting the case of a Kyrgyz citizen killed by a US serviceman.

North Korea, offering a contrast to its hard-line rhetoric in recent days about relations with South Korea and its missile programme, has signalled to a former senior US diplomat that it is willing to discuss nuclear disarmament if its requests for aid are met.

United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon has visited Iraq and praised the provincial elections, which we analysed in detail yesterday.

Obama vs. The Military (Part 2): The Battle for Iraq Continues

The US military, having fought Barack Obama since Day 2 of his Administration over withdrawal of combat troops from Iraq within 16 months, have now tipped their hand. They are seeking a 23-month limit on withdrawal, although there is a compromise proposal of 19 months also in play.



Genius/General David Petraeus, the head of US Central Command, and General Raymond Odierno, the commander of US forces in Iraq, who both have been supporting and/or leading the opposition to Obama, are in favour of the longer timeframe. One of their leakers confirmed, "Odierno and Petraeus have said that we really need 23 months to do this without jeopardizing the security gains that we've secured."

How far are the military opponents of Obama pushing this? In their version of events, the President hasn't seen the alternative proposals, which means the media are being informed before the White House.

Obama's staff are holding the line that all the proposals have been tabled --- with the President getting an assessment from the military of the risks of each ---  but nothing has been decided: "There's been a very good back and forth in a very logical process that has allowed the president to hear from commanders and forces at all levels. Fact is that they are coming to a meeting of the minds on troops and on the need for a diplomatic and political strategy to end the war in Iraq and ease the strain on the troops and their families."

Dick Cheney: How Can We Ever Forget Him?

Really, how can we? Far from receding (dis)gracefully into the past, the former Vice President has been trying to build a legacy by trashing the newcomers and whipping up fear of a terrorist attack now that he isn't guarding us. Our own Mike Dunn tried to stop this, but still Dick keeps on grumbling. So let's bring in a couple of other friends --- Jon Stewart and Keith Olbermann --- to despatch the villain:

Jon Stewart: "Why Are You Such a Dick?"

The Daily Show With Jon StewartM - Th 11p / 10c

Why Are You Such a Dick? - Audio Tape

Daily Show Full Episodes
Important Things With Demetri Martin

Funny Political News
Joke of the Day

Keith Olbermann: "Cheney Doing the Work of Terrorists"

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XFzzOCpnQbo[/youtube]

B'Tselem Report: Israel's Violations of Human Rights in Gaza and the West Bank

B’Tselem, the Israeli Information Center for Human Rights in the Occupied Territories, has released its 2008 annual report regarding the human rights violations took place in Palestinian lands and Israel. (The report, unfortunately, was compiled before Operation Cast Lead started in Gaza on 27 December.)

Since 2000, Israeli security forces in the Occupied Territories have killed more than 2,200 Palestinians who were not taking part in the hostilities and have wounded thousands more....

At the beginning of the second intifada, however, the Judge Advocate General’s Office stopped automatically opening investigations into cases of death and injury of Palestinians who were not involved in the hostilities, other than in exceptional cases. Between 2000 and the end of 2008, only 287 Military Police investigations were opened into cases of firing in the Occupied Territories, including cases that did not result in death or injury. In addition, in 2002, the Knesset passed a law denying Palestinians the possibility of obtaining compensation in most cases in which they have suffered injury as a result of illegal acts by security forces. Thus, Israel has almost completely blocked the two principal ways to ensure accountability.

The report offers significant points regarding casualties caused by the Israeli security forces:

Throughout 2008, until 26 December, Israeli security forces killed 455 Palestinians, 87 of them minors. Of the total, 413 (more than 90 percent) were residents of the Gaza Strip; the other 42 (less than 10 percent) were residents of the West Bank....At least 175 of the Palestinians killed in 2008 (approximately 38 percent) did not take part in the hostilities.

The report evaluates the frequently use of ‘security’ discourse by the Israeli officials:

Israel justifies many of its actions in the Occupied Territories on grounds of security. Over the years, the army has demolished hundreds of houses "for imperative military needs", has held thousands of Palestinians in administrative detention for allegedly "endangering the security of the region", and has declared thousands of acres of land a "special security area" in which Palestinian entry is forbidden, claiming the measure is necessary to protect settlements.

And, despite its completion before the recent war, the report gives important information about "the siege on Gaza":

In 2008, Israel continued its closure on the Gaza Strip, placing extreme restrictions on the Strip’s foreign trade. The closure began in June 2007, following Hamas’s takeover of the area. At the time, Israel closed the crossings into Gaza and placed major restrictions on the entry of goods into it, including fuel, medical equipment, and replacement parts. Israel allowed in only goods it deemed “humanitarian,” such as food, sugar, cooking oil, rice, and salt. In November 2007, the government of Israel declared Gaza a “hostile entity” and intensified its siege policy.

In 2008, the tunnel economy between southern Gaza and Egyptian Rafah greatly expanded. Many goods of various kinds were brought into Gaza through the tunnels, with Hamas supervising the movement and collecting taxes from tunnel operators. In addition to consumption goods, Palestinians smuggled in weapons, including rockets.

Unemployment in the Gaza Strip continued to rise in 2008. In the second quarter of the year, it reached 50 percent. 79 percent of Gazan households live under the poverty line and 70 percent live in deep poverty. 80 percent of the water supplied to Gazans this year did not meet the drinking-water standard of the World Health Organization.

The report assesses the restrictions on movement in West Bank:

2008 saw a rise in the number of flying checkpoints, which the army set up between permanent checkpoints. According to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), flying checkpoints averaged at 89 per week from the end of April to September 2008, compared to an average of 66 a week from September 2007 to the end of April 2008.

Finally, the report gives information about the Palestinians held in administrative detention:

In January 2009, the Israeli Prison Service informed B'Tselem that out of 548 administrative detainees being held by the army, 42 have been in prison for more than two years.