The Latest on Israel-Gaza-Palestine (7 February): Edging to a Settlement?

Latest Post: Israel’s Violations of Human Rights in Gaza and the West Bank
Latest Post: Dead is Dead - Propaganda and the Jabaliya Mass Killing in Gaza

7:20 p.m. Desperate Words in a Desperate Position. Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas may be pushing hard for a new arrangement with Tel Aviv, but present/former West Bank Prime Minister Salam Fayyad sees no hope:

I do not know of a single Israeli politician from any party who I would expect to offer a reasonable solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. All of them want a partial solution, or they aim to improve the face and the conditions of the occupation while the settlements continue.

Actually Abbas, with Israel holding Palestinian Authority aid and payments to Gaza hostage, is sounding desperate as well:

The Palestinian people suffered from the most ruthless and barbaric onslaught for three weeks. We want aid shipments to speedily reach the Palestinian people who are in dire need. So far, the shipments have met just 20 percent of the actual need.

6:30 p.m. It Had to Happen. Egypt is alleging that the $11 million confiscated from Hamas delegates, seized as they returned to Gaza from the Cairo talks, was provided by Tehran. It is "only a small portion of the large amounts of money Iran has funneled to Hamas over the last week".

No evidence was provided for the claim.



1:15 p.m. There are reports, from Hamas sources and witnesses, that Hamas military leader Mahmoud az-Zahar is part of the delegation en route to Egypt. If true, this would point to the possibility of a critical point in the talks; it is the first time that az-Zahar has been seen in public since the Israeli invasion of Gaza and the attempt on his life by Israeli forces.

11:20 a.m. Ali Yenidunya has posted separately on the report of the Israeli human rights group B'Tselem on Israel's human rights violations in Gaza and the West Bank.

10 a.m. Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas met Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Friday and will meet other Turkish officials today. The statements on the talks was anodyne: "The latest efforts to secure unity among Palestinian groups were reviewed thoroughly."

9:30 a.m. We've posted separately on what, in our view, is a deplorable attempt to play down civilian deaths from Israeli fire. Israel did not directly hit a school/shelter; it just hit the civilians killed outside it.

Morning Update (9 a.m. GMT; 11 a.m. Israel/Palestine): We ended last evening on a pessimistic note about any Israel-Gaza settlement but there are a couple of interesting, more optimistic twists this morning.

Some Israeli officials are putting out the confirmation that Hamas is not responsible for the recent firings of rockets into southern Israel; instead, the launches are being carried out by Islamic Jihad, Popular Resistance Committees, and, yes, Mahmoud Abbas' Fatah.

We already reported this. The significance is that Israeli officials will give up the public, inaccurate line blaming Hamas. This opens up some space for continuing discussions.

Which, in turn, points to the report in Israeli media that Hamas officials are returning to Cairo for talks on Sunday. A spokesman told YNet News, "The issues still being debated are fundamental but small, and...the organization would strive to prevent a relapse into fighting."

CNN-Turk also reports that Turkey is holding talks in Damascus with Hamas officials on a prisoner swap releasing the kidnapped Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit.

Dead is Dead: The Mass Killing in Jabaliya in Gaza

I'm highlighting this story from The Washington Post because I fear it will quickly become a front-line propaganda piece to gloss over the civilian deaths in the Gaza conflict.

The Post headlines Geoff Witte's piece "U.N. Says School in Gaza Where 43 Died Wasn't Hit by Israeli Fire". Wow --- does that mean the 43 died at the hands of others, say, Hamas or a mystery force? Was the attack a fantasy? Let's read:

The United Nations said this week that Israeli mortar fire that killed at least 43 people in Gaza's Jabaliya refugee camp on Jan. 6 had landed just outside a U.N.-run school housing refugees from the fighting but did not hit the school itself.

OK, so the Israeli shells didn't kill anyone inside the shelter. They just killed people trying to get to the shelter because 1) they had told by Israel in some cases to evacuate their homes 2) their homes were getting hit by Israeli fire 3) they were panicked.

No one claimed, at least on this website, that the Israeli military deliberately targeted the school. Instead, we said that the deaths occurred because Israel was firing artillery in a built-up civilian area and that Israel might have been using a new type of mortar which was not as precise as advertised.

Indeed, this latest twist actually exposes the desperate Israeli attempt to cover-up the killing. Remember, Israeli spokesmen claimed that they were firing at Hamas fighters who were inside the school. Now, they are saying, no, no, we didn't ever fire at the shelter. The story changes depending on which straw "information" officers think they can grasp.

So Israel didn't hit the school, deliberately or accidentally, in this case. It did hit other schools, hospitals, large family houses, and tower blocks in its attacks. It did kill hundreds of civilians in this operation. It did so, in some cases, with weapons which are banned under international law. And, in almost every case, it has tried to escape responsibility for its actions.

Dead is dead. It doesn't matter one jot if that death occurred inside a building crammed with civilians or in a street crammed with civilians trying to get into that building, fleeing from attack, or just running about madly.

Obama vs. The Military: The Battle for Afghanistan Continues

The Pentagon continues to put pressure on President Obama to approve in full its request for additional troops in Afghanistan. The Department of Defense told media on Friday that the US was still on track for the build-up of five brigades, including three in the next few weeks, by summer.

Privately, however, Pentagon officials and the military are making their concerns known:

We need to get troops to Afghanistan soon because the spring fighting season begins in April. But there has been concern that a large initial deployment could force [the military's] hand in Iraq.

That is an interesting statement because it indicates the military has created a problem for itself: it is hard both to justify the rapid build-up in Afghanistan and opposition to the President's timetable for a drawdown of US forces in Iraq.

Expect Obama to play on that --- indeed, it is likely that he already has done so. But also expect the military to be even more vocal in public about its worries if the President doesn't give them part of their plan soon.

Twitter and the Obama Foreign Policy of Engagement: Style or Substance?

We had a bit of fun with the State Department's Twitterers in the dying days of the Bush Administration, so it's only fair to give credit and indeed to highlight what could be an effective use of social media and, far from incidentally, a signal to the changed US approach under Barack Obama.

DipNote has posted the following for readers' response:

On February 4, 2009, Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs William Burns met with P-5+1 counterparts to discuss the approach that the international community will take toward Iran. When asked about Iran, Secretary Clinton said, “Iran has an opportunity to step up and become a productive member of the international community. As President Obama said, we are reaching out a hand, but the fist has to unclench.”

How ought the international community engage national regimes to transform from pariahs to partners?

Not sure the labelling of Iran as "pariah" assists the discussions with Tehran but it's encouraging to see the possibility of a dialogue with an audience concerned about the course of US foreign policy and the US-Iranian relationship.

Today's Obamameter: The Latest on US Foreign Policy (6 February)

Latest Post: Decoding the Political Challenges of the Iraqi Elections
Latest Post: Obama and Blair - The Symbolism of Loyalty
Latest Post: US Economy Saved - Dunking Dick Cheney
Latest Post: Red Alert - Fox "News" Launches Comrade Update

Current Obamameter Reading: Murky

9:25 p.m. We'll need time to decode Iranian Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani's speech at Munich today but, on first reading, it appears to be the line of "we will talk to the US if it unclenches its fist". Calling on Washington to change its tactics "to a chess game from a boxing match", Larijani invoked the history of US challenges to Iran, including Washington's support of Iraq in the 1980s during Baghdad's war with Tehran, but said a new relationship was possible if the US "accepts its mistakes and changes its policies". In a world where Israel was allowed to have more than 200 nuclear weapons, "the dispute over Iran’s nuclear issue is by no means legal”.

Simple translation? Iran talks formally but only if the US not only refrains from preconditions but eases existing economic restrictions.

9:20 p.m. You have to admire Poland, either for being completely out of it or having no shame in sucking up to Washington or both. Apparently missing the news that the Obama Administration is walking away from missile defence, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk "will definitely tell Vice President Biden tomorrow in Munich we are ready to participate in this project, a U.S. project".

Evening Update (8:30 p.m. GMT): We've just posted a separate entry "Decoding the Political Challenges of the Iraqi Elections" with Juan Cole's detailed breakdown and incisive consideration of the results.

The Russian Paradox. As Moscow tries to assert political and military influence in Central Asia and on its western borders, attempting to negotiate with the US from a position of strength, it faces financial and economic crisis at home. We'll have an analysis this weekend, but The Daily Telegraph has just posted Russian President Dmitri Medvedev's warning of unrest:

We are falling under the influence of the global crisis – a worsening problem of unemployment and other social issues. At such a time one encounters those who wish to speculate, to use the situation. One cannot allow an already complicated situation to deteriorate.

In the latest diplomatic move, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov told the Munich Security Conference that the Obama Administration offered a "window of opportunity" for positive resolution of the issue of missile defence in Europe.



2:15 p.m. Pakistan authorities claim 52 militants have been killed by army helicopters in fighting south of the Khyber Pass.

1:15 p.m. Today's Russia Reading: Gusting in Your Face. Abhkazia, the region in Georgia which Russia recognised as independent last summer, has announced that it will host a Russian naval base and an airbase. The Abhkaz Deputy Foreign Minister said a 25-year military treaty could be signed.

10:40 a.m. Watching the World Turn. McClatchy News Services has an illuminating article on how Iran is promoting its aims through "soft power" in Latin America, providing millions of dollars in aid to Bolivia.

10:10 a.m. The Guardian of London, amidst the mix of developments on US-Iran relations, offers what I think is sensible advice:

Instead of concentrating narrowly on preventing Iranian nuclear weapons, the better way would be to proceed incrementally, by way of small concessions and bargains, recognising that the gulf between the Iranian and American understanding of history is a very wide one. More fundamental progress is unlikely unless there is movement toward a settlement between Israelis and Palestinians, and an acceptance that the Israeli nuclear monopoly cannot be left out of the equation when urging nuclear restraint on other states. There are no magic wands in the Middle East.

9 a.m. After a bomb killed at least 27 people at a Shi'a mosque in Central Pakistan, hundreds of Shi'a have set fire to a police station.

8 a.m. US-led raid in Zabul province in southern Afghanistan kills 6 people; council member says they are civilians.

Morning Update (6:30 a.m. GMT; 1:30 a.m. Washington): Important clues to President Obama's position in his battle with the US military over strategy in Afghanistan. Speaking to Democratic Congressmen last night, he emphasized the US cannot win the war in Afghanistan by military means alone. The military "needs a clear mission", as there is a danger of "mission creep without clear parameters".

Translation? Obama is not happy with the military's suggestion that the US hand off non-military activities and "nation-building" to European allies and NATO and believes that the proposed buildup of US forces lacks an "exit strategy" with a political as well as military resolution.

You know Kyrgyzstan must be important, even if I still can't pronounce it, because CNN leads with Hillary Clinton's denunciation of the Kyrgyz Government's decision to close the US airbase as "regrettable". Notable, however, that she did not criticise Russia, who helped Kyrgryzstan on its way with promises of financial and economic support.

The Kyrgyz Government is insisting that its decision is final: "The U.S. embassy and the [Kyrgyz] Foreign Ministry are exchanging opinions on this, but there are no discussions on keeping the base." The Kyrgyz Parliament votes on the decision next week.

A suicide bomber killed himself and wounded seven at a checkpoint on Pakistan's Khyber Pass. Security forces suspect he was trying to get to a bigger bridge, which army engineers are repairing after it was damaged by a bomb earlier this week.

Judge Susan Crawford, overseeing the military commissions process at the Guantanamo Bay detention centre, has halted the last ongoing trial. She overruled a judge who ordered the continuation of hearings over a suspect in the 2000 bombing of the USS Cole.