The Latest from Iran (15 February): Withstanding Abuse

2300 GMT: Urgent Correction on the Labour Front. Earlier today (1600 GMT) Tehran Bureau reported that the Tehran Bus Workers had called for civil disobedience over the case of jailed activist Mansur Osanloo. Tonight Iran Labour Report has issued an effective retraction of the story:

On February 12, a statement appeared on various Iranian websites, including Balatarin which is one of the largest Persian-speaking community websites in the world, in the form of a poster. The poster called for solidarity with the imprisoned leader of Tehran’s bus drivers union, Mansoor Osanloo, through acts of civil disobedience beginning on March 4 around Tehran’s Valiasr square. The statement purported to be an offcial statement of the union (formally known as the Syndicate of Vahed Company Workers of Tehran and Environs). Subsequently, in an article for the popular web journal Tehran Bureau, a staff member at Iran Labor Report wrote an analysis of the union statement as it had appeared on the various websites.

It now appears that the poster-statement was not authentic and that the union’s leadership had not issued the statement. Moreover, the provenance of the statement is still not clear. The union had apparently not published an official disclaimer earlier on due to the recent disuptions with internet use in Iran. Subsequent to this, the union requested that the inauthenticity of the statement be made public and that henceforth no reference would be made of it.

NEW Latest Iran Video: US Analysis (Gary Sick) v. Overreaction (Stephens, Haass)
NEW Iran: The IHRDC Report on Violence and Suppression of Dissent
NEW Iran: Human Rights Watch Report on Post-Election Abuses (11 February)
Iran Analysis: What Now for the Green Movement?
The Latest from Iran (14 February): Step by Step

2145 GMT: Labour Rights. The joint statement of three Iranian unions --- the Syndicate of Tehran Bus Workers, the Syndicate of Haft Tapeh Sugar Cane Company, and The Free Union of Workers in Iran --- to the United Nations Human Rights Council has been posted:

[Workers'] most urgent and most basic demands at the present time are:


- Abolishment of executions, immediate and unconditional release of labour activists and all other social movements activists from jails;
- Rescinding all charges against labour movement arrestees;
- Immediate and unconditional freedom in formation of labour unions, without the need to have permission from managements, compliance with all labour related international conventions, eradication of all non-labour establishments from working environments, and to prosecute the suppressors and deniers of workers’ human rights;
- Unconditional rights to strike, protest, and freedom of speech;
- Complete equality between men and women at work and in all other aspects of social, economical and family lives;
- Total abolishment of child labour and providing educational and medical environment for all children.

2050 GMT: Miss-the-Point Story of the Day. A lot of trees are dying for battling news items on the Iran nuclear front: "Iran Says Studying New Nuclear Fuel Deal" v. "U.S. denies Iran given new fuel swap proposal".

Let's save the trees. Turkish Foreign Ahmet Davutoglu will be in Iran tomorrow to discuss a "swap" of 20 percent uranium, outside Iran, for Tehran's 3.5 percent stock (see 1225 GMT). "New" or "not new" makes no difference to that central discussion.

2008 GMT: On the Economic Front. Mohammad Parsa, a member of the electricity syndicate, has declared that 900,000 workers of electricity companies are on the verge of dismissal as the Government 5 billion toman ($5.06 million) to the electricity industry. Parsa says the industry is operating on an emergency basis with managers fleeing their posts.

2005 GMT: Another Ashura Death. Peyke Iran has identified Mehdi Farhadi Rad from south Tehran as the victim of an attack by police and plainclothes officers, shot in the head and chest.

2000 GMT: The Radio Farda "Spy Ring". Minister of Intelligence Heydar Moslehi has declared that, of eight people arrested as agents for the US Government-sponsored Radio Farda, only one is a journalist, who has confessed his "relationship to foreign elements". The other detainees are his relatives.

1940 GMT: Another Battle for Ahmadinejad. Back from an academic break to find a series of challenges to the President over his budget. Mostafa Kavakebian of the Democracy Party has declared that he will not accept a proposal that needs "fundamental changes": government spending is too high, but there are no funds for unemployed youth and the payment of civil servants is not considered.

Abbas Ali Noura has complained that the financial relationship between Iran's national oil company and the Government is not clear and last year's budget was not fully spent on development of oil industry (a hint at misplaced funds?). Abbas Rajayi adds that Ahmadinejad has not kept promises on funding for modernisation of water supply for agriculture. Ali Akbar Oulia has denounced "one of the weakest and most debatable budgets", with over-optimistic projections on Government income and inflation.

1600 GMT: Tehran Bureau reports that the Tehran Bus Workers Union, in a statement on 12 February, has aligned itself with the Green Movement. The Union also declared, "Starting March 6, We the Workers of Vahed Company Will Wage Acts of Civil Disobedience (or white strike) to Protest the Condition of (labour activist) Mansoor Osanloo in Prison. We Appeal to the Iranian People and to the Democratic Green Movement--of which we consider ourselves a small part--to join us by creating a deliberate traffic jam in all directions leading to Vali-e Asr Square."

1550 GMT: Iranian media is reporting that President Ahmadinejad is going to fire his Minister of Oil for reporting reducing production.

1545 GMT: The Iranian Students News Agency reports that Mohsen Aminzadeh, the reformist leader sentenced to six years in prison, has been released on $700,000 bail during his appeal.

1335 GMT: We've posted video of contrasting analyses from the US, with Gary Sick's thorough consideration of the Iranian political situation offset by generalisation and overreaction from Richard Haass and Bret Stephens.

1230 GMT: Children's rights activist Mohsen Amrolalayi, arrested on 23 January, is still in solitary confinement in Evin Prison.

1225 GMT: One to Watch. Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu will hold talks with Iranian officials, including Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki, on Tuesday over uranium enrichment issue.

What is not noted in the Agence France Presse article is that Davutoglu may have already met President Ahmadinejad's advisor Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai: both have been in Qatar over the weekend.

1215 GMT: The UN Human Rights Meeting on Iran. A few hours of diplomatic theatre in the UN Human Rights Council this morning, as Britain, France, and the US put forward a co-ordinated attack on Iran's treatment of post-election protest. French Ambassador Jean Baptiste Mattei asserted:

The authorities are waging bloody repression against their own people, who are peacefully claiming their rights. France recommends that Iran accept the creation of a credible and independent international inquiry mechanism to shed light on these violations.

The US and British Ambassador made similar statements and called on Iran to allows visits by the United Nations investigator on torture and other human rights experts.

Supported by Cuba, Syria, and Venezuela, Iran judiciary official Mohammad Javad Larijani declared,"With the victory of the Islamic revolution, the situation of human rights has consistently been used as a political tool to apply pressure against us and to advance certain ulterior political motives by some specific Western countries."

Larijani claims steps to improve women's access to education, health, and social status, to protect children and religious minorities, and to combat the tradition of forced marriages: "The Iranian society is a successful model of brotherly and amicable coexistence."

1200 GMT: Not-So-Subtle Propaganda of the Day. Our inset photograph is a reproduction of the lead image --- an altered picture of Mehdi Karroubi --- in today's Javan, which is close to the Revolutionary Guard.



1025 GMT: Nothing to Do With Us. Tehran's Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi has denied that Mehdi Karroubi's son Ali was arrested on 22 Bahman.

Which begs the follow-up question, "So did Ali Karroubi beat himself up?"

0940 GMT: Detaining the Writers: "Arshama3's Blog" updates our list of journalists held in Iran's prisons, covering 66 cases. A 67th named can be added: Na’imeh Doostdar of Jam-e-Jam and Hamshahri was arrested on 6 February.

One piece of good news: writer Alireza Saghafi was released yesterday.

0925 GMT: Rah-e-Sabz reports that there is still no number of those detained on 22 Bahman. Some detainees have been allowed to have short phone calls with families.

0910 GMT: Who is the Foe? That is the question asked by Ebrahim Nabavi, who argues that the true opposition to the Green movement is not Ahmadinejad, the Supreme Leader, the Revolutionary Guard, the Basiji, the plainclothes men, Western imperialism, or British-directed mullahs. The enemies are ignorance, poverty, tyranny, and injustice are the Green's real foes.

Nabavi refers to Mohsen Rouholamini, who died at Kahrizak Prison last summer, in predicting that there are many more like him within the regime who long for freedom. He emphasises that the Green movement wants freedom for the soldier who opposes it as well as for people who are forced to comply with the regime for financial reasons.

0905 GMT: The German-based Akhbar-e-Rooz has taken aim at the Green Movement. Two articles are notable: an opinion piece takes aim at the Green website Rah-e-Sabz for attacking those "who did not vote for Mousavi". This follows an editorial complaining about the Green movement's indifference to trade unions, including the failure to challenge the transfer of the labour activist Mansur Osanloo to solitary confinement.

(Apologies that, in processing information this morning, I confused this with the latest from Khabar Online, mistakenly attributing the attack on the Greens to the pro-Larijani website.)

0900 GMT: The Spirit of 22 Bahman. The reformist Association of Combatant Clergy has issued a statement thanking Greens for their involvement in last Thursday's rallies and condemning Iranian authorities for "hijacking" their efforts.

0850 GMT: Well, This Will Break the Silence. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has pronounced this morning in a speech to students in Qatar, "Iran is moving toward a military dictatorship. That is our view."

Really? No President with authority? No Supreme Leader? I suspect Clinton may have put this line not only as part of the tactic of united Arab countries against the Iran "threat" but to justify the sanctions against the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps. Still (and I haven't seen the context of the full speech, only the reports), the declaration seems a bit simplistic, even for public spin.

0720 GMT: A slowish day on the political front, as Iran moves towards the end of its holidays for the anniversary of the Revolution. The only ripple is Iranian state media's promotion of President Ahmadinejad's declaration, in an interview with a Russian magazine:

Iran can defend itself without nuclear weapons. Nuclear weapons are of no use anymore and have no place in current international equations. Could the Soviet Union's stockpile of nuclear weapons prevent its collapse? Have they been of any assistance to the US military in its wars against Afghanistan and Iraq? Atomic bombs couldn't secure a victory for the Zionist regime in the Lebanon and Gaza wars.

The statement might be read in the context of an Ahmadinejad reassurance to the "West" that Iran will not pursue a military nuclear programme and thus as a signal that he wants to maintain discussions on uranium enrichment.

In the meantime, however, we are focusing on human rights this morning with two reports: the Human Rights Watch findings on detentions, abuse, and torture and a study by the Iran Human Rights Documentation Center of post-election suppression of dissent.

Comments

[Arshama]

Pedestrian,

But Larijani's statement deserves an award for "weeks best line" too.
http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=8811260611
Tehran's Envoy Mohammad Javad Larijani said at the Human Rights Council Iran was in "full compliance with the relevant international commitments it has taken on in a genuine and long-term approach to safeguard human rights."

Obviously he needs glasses, here is the Universal Declaration of Human Rights in Farsi http://www.ohchr.org/EN/UDHR/Pages/Language.aspx?LangID=prs

[gunni]

Cyrus

The journal I qouted ( 18.55 ) is serious - they are reporting about Iran since decades. The statement I made was meant as a reply to Samuels "weakness" -
the article talks about the rifts between Raf, Larijani and the leader based on Information from Mehdi Khalaschi. Tenor: It looks not good, if nothing will change...and... the leader will not change anything. The other source is interesting, too:
The center for strategic studies,Beirut is working for the Understanding between
shia and sunni moslems -they are working together with the University
Erlangen.
Thank`s a lot for your information - clear words and demands - I `am glad that you are well.

Barry
I `am glad that I can inform you that neither the good nor the bad germans get their electricity from Iran - we have the European integrated network.
(we are dependend on russian gas) :) lol
By the way - we have pipelins - but how do you get your electricity to the other side of the world ....

[Barry]

Hi gunni

Hopefully I have not insulted you in regard to my reference to "good Germans" . It is however a well known phrase relating to some/many people in Germany during the Nazi Regime. It basically refers to people who do nothing, turn their heads away from crimes being committed - and say that they were just being "good citizens" during the bad times.

I guess I should refer to the "good Iranians" now - however people would probably not then understand the context.

Anyway - it is well established that the Iranian "masses" have yet to enter this fray - some have said here that they are not yet hurting enough to risk their lives by coming out onto the street yet. Perhaps , if they no longer have an electricity supply, they may get angry and enter the streets??

Barry

[Barry]

@gunni

I have just returned form a cruise on a cruiseship - one of the questions asked by a passenger was "Does the ship generate it's own electricity???." :)

Barry

[Bosco]

The green movement really needs to get behind the workers, and release statements in their support.

[Heidar]

1600 GMT + http://theflyingcarpetinstitute.wordpress.com/2010/02/15/workers-minimal-demands-on-the-occasion-of-the-31st-anniversary-1979-revolution/ :

Are we slowly moving towards a possible general strike?

[Cyrus]

@gunni
that's been my argument since the elections, this regime is not reformable
maximum measures of reform has already been taken and what people are demanding now is separation of religion from Islam, equality between sexes, political & social freedom & such or in other words a secular democratic gov, a totally different political system w/o the role of mullahs in politics
Iranians while they respect their traditions, also the biggest fans of modernity & western culture in the middle east
even if the regime respect the basic human rights chapter of the UN, regime will ultimately fail because it"s based on Islam, a discriminating, violent and on the opposite side of modernity that will not survive if follows human rights
a very simple thing, if peaceful opposition protests in Iran become legal and w/o risk of death, imprisonment, etc there will be tens millions protesting against the regime on a single protest & once journalists are free to broadcast that, the rest of the nation will realize how small the number of regime supporters will be and it'll accelerate the fall of IRI

[Arshama]

@ 2145 GMT: Labour Rights

Neue Zuericher Zeitung is one of the first newspapers to report on today's meeting of the HR Council in Geneva: harsh criticism at the IR because of legal uncertainty, oppression, death penalty and discrimination of women and ethnic minorities: http://www.nzz.ch/nachrichten/zuerich/iran_zwischen_uno-podium_und_pranger_1.4977846.html

Ange,

Merci beaucoup pour les articles sur l'uranium et droits humains :-)

[ChrisE]

1400: Tehran's bus driver's statement

Reports now indicate that the statement was not authentic. The
union had apparently not published an official disclaimer earlier due to
the recent disruptions of internet use in Iran.

[Arshama]

First video report from Geneva HR Council by BBC, showing also the protesters in front of the building: http://www.peykeiran.com/Content.aspx?ID=13568

ma bishomarim

[Iran's Bus Drivers Union Calls]

[...] of the statement be made public and that henceforth no reference would be made of it. The Latest from Iran (15 February): Withstanding Abuse | Enduring America __________________ Payandeh Iran, Sarfaraz [...]

[Samuel]

From Foreign Policy Magazine:

Key Quote: "Though Sadeghi says he's addressing green activists in Iran when he posts on Mousavi's Facebook site, he admits that he doesn't know what percentage of his followers are even in the country, and the official statistics suggest that the vast majority are abroad."

Poor Greenies the Facebook site is primarily preaching to the already converted wild-eyed emigre community, a group well known for its insatiable appetite for insane conspiracy mongering.

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/02/12/irans_failed_facebook_revolution?page=full

Iran, Facebook, and the Limits of Online Activism
The green movement's Internet leaders are learning the perils and pitfalls of online organizing -- the hard way.
BY CAMERON ABADI | FEBRUARY 12, 2010
A group of Iran's green movement activists had a grand and detailed vision for what was supposed to happen on Feb. 11. They called it a "Trojan Horse" strategy: Backers of opposition leader Mir-Hossein Mousavi, camouflaged in unassuming attire, would attend the official regime-backed rally commemorating the 31st anniversary of the Islamic Revolution. Then, at a pre-arranged time, they would assemble in front of the cameras of the foreign news media, reveal themselves as enthusiasts of the green movement, and denounce the brutality of the government for all the world to see.

As we all know, however, there was no great reveal at the official rally: The plan didn't work, and Feb. 11 will be remembered by Iran's activists not as a triumph, but as a disappointment. And the scale of the setback, which has placed a significant damper on the movement's spirits, is closely tied to the specificity and grandiosity of the visions that were being cultivated in the preceding weeks via blogs, forwarded emails, and social networking sites.

Iranian activists have long reaped the benefits of Internet communication, but especially in the months since the June 12 election, they have also fallen prey to its pitfalls. Reassured by their own online echo chambers, activists and participants allowed their optimism to grow like a market bubble -- a bubble that, many say, was popped on Thursday.

Now, many of the greens are experiencing a sort of idealism hangover. Mohammad Sadeghi, the 27-year old Iranian-German who administers Mousavi's official Facebook page, admits that he doesn't know what comes next. He has always managed to be one step ahead of the manifold events of the past year, but now he's at a loss.

He created the Facebook page last January, before Mousavi had even officially declared his candidacy, back in the days when Facebook was still freely accessible to any Internet user in Iran. In the following months, after the page had attracted a small but devoted following, Mousavi's campaign reached out to him, expressing its desire to consult and cooperate with him in the run-up to the election.

After the election, Mousavi's Tehran-based campaign and his Germany-based Facebook site experienced diverging fates. Layers of campaign staff were hauled off to Iranian prisons, while the Facebook site saw an explosion in followers. Sadeghi decided that he had a responsibility to independently continue the campaign in Mousavi's name, to serve as a meeting place, conference room, and bulletin board for sympathizers and activists. By his account, the Facebook page played a key role in propagating the defiant nightly "Allahu Akbar" chant and organizing the protest schedule linked to major Iranian and Shiite holidays.

But Sadeghi also admits that he and his Facebook followers had only planned their activities through Feb. 11. He had supposed that by this point the movement's strength would be so manifest, and the regime's legitimacy so tattered, that the greens could finally enter negotiations and the protest movement would become unnecessary. Now, Sadeghi sees dark days ahead: He thinks the people of Iran are doomed to weather a military coup, an anarchic civil war, or international sanctions that cause mass suffering.

Like many of the green movement activists, Sadeghi's belief in the protests seems related to their "horizontal organization," the fact that they were structured without hierarchies. This was supposed to be the great strength of the movement, but it is also an abiding weakness. A horizontal organization can't clearly delineate different roles to different people according to their strengths; it can't reward those who participate, or sanction those who hesitate. Facebook enabled many young Iranians to forget these points. Though Sadeghi says he's addressing green activists in Iran when he posts on Mousavi's Facebook site, he admits that he doesn't know what percentage of his followers are even in the country, and the official statistics suggest that the vast majority are abroad.

[Scott Lucas]

Samuel,

I'm not going to call it out with a separate entry, but the Foreign Policy piece is poor. It extrapolates from a couple of cases such as the Mousavi FB page to make sweeping generalisations about "the on-line movement", most of which have little relationship to what is actually happening. There is a lot of discussion, both strategic and tactical, reflecting on the experience of 22 Bahman. Some of that is reflected on EA; much more of it is evident on other sites and behind the public scene.

This is not to make any predictions about outcomes, but Abadi's piece is no more representative of what has happened and what is currently occurring than taking one Ahmadinejad statement as reflective of the regime's entire strategy and approach.

(If there is any value in the Abadi piece, it is in showing the limited and often wayward view of US analysts of the Green Movement.)

S.

[Don Cox]

"Iran will not be another Iraq or Afghanistan because Iranians are far more educated, open minded, know what they want & will be able to establish a secular democratic on their own and without any help from outside"

I think this is a very optimistic view. There are just as many thugs, secret police, torturers, etc supporting the regime in Iran as there were supporting Saddam in Iraq. They will fight back with a terror campaign in just the same way.

You think the Republican Guard will be prepared to hand over its share of the economy?

It is hard to imagine the US attempting an invasion of Iran. (But targeted strikes on nuclear facilities are certainly possible.) So the only way the regime could be shifted is by a civil war.