The Latest from Iran (15 February): Withstanding Abuse

2300 GMT: Urgent Correction on the Labour Front. Earlier today (1600 GMT) Tehran Bureau reported that the Tehran Bus Workers had called for civil disobedience over the case of jailed activist Mansur Osanloo. Tonight Iran Labour Report has issued an effective retraction of the story:

On February 12, a statement appeared on various Iranian websites, including Balatarin which is one of the largest Persian-speaking community websites in the world, in the form of a poster. The poster called for solidarity with the imprisoned leader of Tehran’s bus drivers union, Mansoor Osanloo, through acts of civil disobedience beginning on March 4 around Tehran’s Valiasr square. The statement purported to be an offcial statement of the union (formally known as the Syndicate of Vahed Company Workers of Tehran and Environs). Subsequently, in an article for the popular web journal Tehran Bureau, a staff member at Iran Labor Report wrote an analysis of the union statement as it had appeared on the various websites.

It now appears that the poster-statement was not authentic and that the union’s leadership had not issued the statement. Moreover, the provenance of the statement is still not clear. The union had apparently not published an official disclaimer earlier on due to the recent disuptions with internet use in Iran. Subsequent to this, the union requested that the inauthenticity of the statement be made public and that henceforth no reference would be made of it.

NEW Latest Iran Video: US Analysis (Gary Sick) v. Overreaction (Stephens, Haass)
NEW Iran: The IHRDC Report on Violence and Suppression of Dissent
NEW Iran: Human Rights Watch Report on Post-Election Abuses (11 February)
Iran Analysis: What Now for the Green Movement?
The Latest from Iran (14 February): Step by Step

2145 GMT: Labour Rights. The joint statement of three Iranian unions --- the Syndicate of Tehran Bus Workers, the Syndicate of Haft Tapeh Sugar Cane Company, and The Free Union of Workers in Iran --- to the United Nations Human Rights Council has been posted:

[Workers'] most urgent and most basic demands at the present time are:


- Abolishment of executions, immediate and unconditional release of labour activists and all other social movements activists from jails;
- Rescinding all charges against labour movement arrestees;
- Immediate and unconditional freedom in formation of labour unions, without the need to have permission from managements, compliance with all labour related international conventions, eradication of all non-labour establishments from working environments, and to prosecute the suppressors and deniers of workers’ human rights;
- Unconditional rights to strike, protest, and freedom of speech;
- Complete equality between men and women at work and in all other aspects of social, economical and family lives;
- Total abolishment of child labour and providing educational and medical environment for all children.

2050 GMT: Miss-the-Point Story of the Day. A lot of trees are dying for battling news items on the Iran nuclear front: "Iran Says Studying New Nuclear Fuel Deal" v. "U.S. denies Iran given new fuel swap proposal".

Let's save the trees. Turkish Foreign Ahmet Davutoglu will be in Iran tomorrow to discuss a "swap" of 20 percent uranium, outside Iran, for Tehran's 3.5 percent stock (see 1225 GMT). "New" or "not new" makes no difference to that central discussion.

2008 GMT: On the Economic Front. Mohammad Parsa, a member of the electricity syndicate, has declared that 900,000 workers of electricity companies are on the verge of dismissal as the Government 5 billion toman ($5.06 million) to the electricity industry. Parsa says the industry is operating on an emergency basis with managers fleeing their posts.

2005 GMT: Another Ashura Death. Peyke Iran has identified Mehdi Farhadi Rad from south Tehran as the victim of an attack by police and plainclothes officers, shot in the head and chest.

2000 GMT: The Radio Farda "Spy Ring". Minister of Intelligence Heydar Moslehi has declared that, of eight people arrested as agents for the US Government-sponsored Radio Farda, only one is a journalist, who has confessed his "relationship to foreign elements". The other detainees are his relatives.

1940 GMT: Another Battle for Ahmadinejad. Back from an academic break to find a series of challenges to the President over his budget. Mostafa Kavakebian of the Democracy Party has declared that he will not accept a proposal that needs "fundamental changes": government spending is too high, but there are no funds for unemployed youth and the payment of civil servants is not considered.

Abbas Ali Noura has complained that the financial relationship between Iran's national oil company and the Government is not clear and last year's budget was not fully spent on development of oil industry (a hint at misplaced funds?). Abbas Rajayi adds that Ahmadinejad has not kept promises on funding for modernisation of water supply for agriculture. Ali Akbar Oulia has denounced "one of the weakest and most debatable budgets", with over-optimistic projections on Government income and inflation.

1600 GMT: Tehran Bureau reports that the Tehran Bus Workers Union, in a statement on 12 February, has aligned itself with the Green Movement. The Union also declared, "Starting March 6, We the Workers of Vahed Company Will Wage Acts of Civil Disobedience (or white strike) to Protest the Condition of (labour activist) Mansoor Osanloo in Prison. We Appeal to the Iranian People and to the Democratic Green Movement--of which we consider ourselves a small part--to join us by creating a deliberate traffic jam in all directions leading to Vali-e Asr Square."

1550 GMT: Iranian media is reporting that President Ahmadinejad is going to fire his Minister of Oil for reporting reducing production.

1545 GMT: The Iranian Students News Agency reports that Mohsen Aminzadeh, the reformist leader sentenced to six years in prison, has been released on $700,000 bail during his appeal.

1335 GMT: We've posted video of contrasting analyses from the US, with Gary Sick's thorough consideration of the Iranian political situation offset by generalisation and overreaction from Richard Haass and Bret Stephens.

1230 GMT: Children's rights activist Mohsen Amrolalayi, arrested on 23 January, is still in solitary confinement in Evin Prison.

1225 GMT: One to Watch. Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu will hold talks with Iranian officials, including Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki, on Tuesday over uranium enrichment issue.

What is not noted in the Agence France Presse article is that Davutoglu may have already met President Ahmadinejad's advisor Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai: both have been in Qatar over the weekend.

1215 GMT: The UN Human Rights Meeting on Iran. A few hours of diplomatic theatre in the UN Human Rights Council this morning, as Britain, France, and the US put forward a co-ordinated attack on Iran's treatment of post-election protest. French Ambassador Jean Baptiste Mattei asserted:

The authorities are waging bloody repression against their own people, who are peacefully claiming their rights. France recommends that Iran accept the creation of a credible and independent international inquiry mechanism to shed light on these violations.

The US and British Ambassador made similar statements and called on Iran to allows visits by the United Nations investigator on torture and other human rights experts.

Supported by Cuba, Syria, and Venezuela, Iran judiciary official Mohammad Javad Larijani declared,"With the victory of the Islamic revolution, the situation of human rights has consistently been used as a political tool to apply pressure against us and to advance certain ulterior political motives by some specific Western countries."

Larijani claims steps to improve women's access to education, health, and social status, to protect children and religious minorities, and to combat the tradition of forced marriages: "The Iranian society is a successful model of brotherly and amicable coexistence."

1200 GMT: Not-So-Subtle Propaganda of the Day. Our inset photograph is a reproduction of the lead image --- an altered picture of Mehdi Karroubi --- in today's Javan, which is close to the Revolutionary Guard.



1025 GMT: Nothing to Do With Us. Tehran's Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi has denied that Mehdi Karroubi's son Ali was arrested on 22 Bahman.

Which begs the follow-up question, "So did Ali Karroubi beat himself up?"

0940 GMT: Detaining the Writers: "Arshama3's Blog" updates our list of journalists held in Iran's prisons, covering 66 cases. A 67th named can be added: Na’imeh Doostdar of Jam-e-Jam and Hamshahri was arrested on 6 February.

One piece of good news: writer Alireza Saghafi was released yesterday.

0925 GMT: Rah-e-Sabz reports that there is still no number of those detained on 22 Bahman. Some detainees have been allowed to have short phone calls with families.

0910 GMT: Who is the Foe? That is the question asked by Ebrahim Nabavi, who argues that the true opposition to the Green movement is not Ahmadinejad, the Supreme Leader, the Revolutionary Guard, the Basiji, the plainclothes men, Western imperialism, or British-directed mullahs. The enemies are ignorance, poverty, tyranny, and injustice are the Green's real foes.

Nabavi refers to Mohsen Rouholamini, who died at Kahrizak Prison last summer, in predicting that there are many more like him within the regime who long for freedom. He emphasises that the Green movement wants freedom for the soldier who opposes it as well as for people who are forced to comply with the regime for financial reasons.

0905 GMT: The German-based Akhbar-e-Rooz has taken aim at the Green Movement. Two articles are notable: an opinion piece takes aim at the Green website Rah-e-Sabz for attacking those "who did not vote for Mousavi". This follows an editorial complaining about the Green movement's indifference to trade unions, including the failure to challenge the transfer of the labour activist Mansur Osanloo to solitary confinement.

(Apologies that, in processing information this morning, I confused this with the latest from Khabar Online, mistakenly attributing the attack on the Greens to the pro-Larijani website.)

0900 GMT: The Spirit of 22 Bahman. The reformist Association of Combatant Clergy has issued a statement thanking Greens for their involvement in last Thursday's rallies and condemning Iranian authorities for "hijacking" their efforts.

0850 GMT: Well, This Will Break the Silence. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has pronounced this morning in a speech to students in Qatar, "Iran is moving toward a military dictatorship. That is our view."

Really? No President with authority? No Supreme Leader? I suspect Clinton may have put this line not only as part of the tactic of united Arab countries against the Iran "threat" but to justify the sanctions against the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps. Still (and I haven't seen the context of the full speech, only the reports), the declaration seems a bit simplistic, even for public spin.

0720 GMT: A slowish day on the political front, as Iran moves towards the end of its holidays for the anniversary of the Revolution. The only ripple is Iranian state media's promotion of President Ahmadinejad's declaration, in an interview with a Russian magazine:

Iran can defend itself without nuclear weapons. Nuclear weapons are of no use anymore and have no place in current international equations. Could the Soviet Union's stockpile of nuclear weapons prevent its collapse? Have they been of any assistance to the US military in its wars against Afghanistan and Iraq? Atomic bombs couldn't secure a victory for the Zionist regime in the Lebanon and Gaza wars.

The statement might be read in the context of an Ahmadinejad reassurance to the "West" that Iran will not pursue a military nuclear programme and thus as a signal that he wants to maintain discussions on uranium enrichment.

In the meantime, however, we are focusing on human rights this morning with two reports: the Human Rights Watch findings on detentions, abuse, and torture and a study by the Iran Human Rights Documentation Center of post-election suppression of dissent.

Comments

[S]

check this out.. 22 bahman google map analysis:

http://i47.tinypic.com/e6zva8.jpg

[cyrus]

Iran has been a military dictatorship since the day Islamic Republic came to power, the only reason it wasn't noticed by the foreign media was A-the lack of media presence & citizen broadcasting technology available today and B- people didn't have enough excuse to protest in such large numbers against the regime & risk lives
Many protests in Iran left un-noticed during the past 3 decades, starting the very beginning of the revolution after people realized that this regime turned out to be a lot worse than wht they had expected to become and a lot more brutal than the regime they overthrew hoping of oil $ sent to their homes everyday & other lies & fake promises of Khomeini
There were much more brutal crackdowns than what we witnessed post-election, including the women rights protests, the MKO's protests (most of them ended up arrested & 30,000 executed in 1988), the protest of Montazeri's supporters in late 80's when millions through out Iran & specially Najafabad & Isfahan opposed Khomeini's actions against him & ended up crushed, the 1999 studnt up-rising and many other student protests in the 80's and 90's which all ended up severely cracked down by the regime, many shot dead, taken to prisons & tortured. Even their famimies were harassed & some still being harassed for their sons & doughters participation in the protests, I am a living witness of 1999 protests & how the regime reacted to it
Regime knew about the ticking bomb going out of control& that's why havily invested in anti-riot, oppression tools, new political prison build up & special security forces.
Before the elections, when I told the Americans, Europeans, Jews or even Arabs about how much the people of Iran really hate the regime & all the pro-regime demos are just shows & don't mean nothing, people used to think I was BSing tthem & was just trying to make them comfortable next to me, when I used to tell them how westernize the Iranian society is comparng to the rest of the region, people wouldn't still believe me because they had never lived there, but now at least some believe me

[cyrus]

@S wasn't it easier if you just threw a bucket of orange & another bucket of purple paint all over the map & included all Iran Khodro's future bus productions & also all basiji sperms as already born basiji supporters of AN???
There is no way you could count the pro-regime crowd anything more than 50,000

[mukharbish]

re. 0905 - neither of the linked articles is from Khabar Online. They're from Akhbar-e Rooz, which from a quick look appears to focus on coverage of the opposition and human rights, i.e. well outside the boundaries of the regime.

[Kasra Nezami]

RE 0905 GMT: Are you sure www.iran-chabar.de is the same as www.khabaronline.ir ? The two very strong articles you referred to are published in the German-based web-site which doesn't seem close to Ali Larijani.

[Scott Lucas]

Mukharbish/Kasra,

Sorry --- mistake on my part in turning around the information. Appreciate the correction.

S.

[Catherine]

RE : 0850 GMT: Well, This Will Break the Silence. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has pronounced this morning in a speech to students in Qatar, “Iran is moving toward a military dictatorship. That is our view.”

I think her advisors have started hanging out at MikVerbrugge's site :-)
http://mikverbrugge.tumblr.com/post/388763627/insider-iran-de-facto-military-dictatorship
Or maybe they read this? http://persia-house.com/node/1097

(OK - I promise this is the last time I'll post a link to that Persian House article.) Yes, I'm surprised that Clinton came out with this so soon. I was expecting her to wait until they actually had some of those "targeted sanctions" fresh out of the oven before taking this line.

[Catherine]

For those interested in Iran's labour movement, 2 translations on Iranianprogressivesin translation.blogspot.com:

February 10, 2010
Is There a Labor Movement in Iran?
An Interview with Mohammad Maljoo. Dr. Mohammad Maljoo is an Iran-based researcher and lecturer who specializes in political economy. On February 6, 2010, Mahindokht Mesbah of the Persian language Deutsche Welle Radio conducted an interview with him.
http://iranianvoicesintranslation.blogspot.com/2010/02/is-there-labor-movement-in-iran.html

February 10, 2010
Class and Labor in Iran: An Interview with Sohrab Behdad
Sohrab Behdad and Farhad Nomani are the co-authors of Class and Labor in Iran: Did the Revolution Matter? (Syracuse University Press, 2006). Recently, Alborz, an Iran based site devoted to a critique of political economy, conducted an interview with Sohrab Behdad about the new Persian translation of this book.
http://iranianvoicesintranslation.blogspot.com/2010/02/class-and-labor-in-iran-interview-with.html

[Doug]

About 0850 GMT: Well, This Will Break the Silence. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has pronounced this morning in a speech to students in Qatar, “Iran is moving toward a military dictatorship. That is our view.” and further on in the referenced story:
[ROBERT BURNS, AP National Security Writer : ...Revolutionary Guard is in charge of Iran's controversial nuclear program and the country changing course "depends on whether the clerical and political leadership begin to reassert themselves."]
Scott,
     Would this mean that according to your "uranium as red herring" theory that had there not been the posturing of Ahmadinejad with his nuclear saber that Hillary Clinton would have been perfectly happy to negotiate with Islamic tyrants and dictators and that the freedom of the Iranian people is secondary to her?
     But all of this might be a moot point. She might be out of the loop of authority of the Obama administration. In the past, Obama has sent her to low priority diplomatic appearances around the world while "Special Envoys" did the real work on high priority foreign policy decisions.
     And one wonders about the depth of analysis from a President Obama who in at least four recent speeches pronounced the word "corps" as "corpse". The man from Harvard, it appears, has never read and spoken to anyone about military topics that he has no interest in. And his staff continues not to correct his multiple faux pas... he seems intent on insulting his friends and bowing to his enemies...

[Scott Lucas]

Doug,

I think you've put your finger on an important point. There are now multiple signals coming out of the Administration --- some for "engagement" (note the latest move on the nuclear talks with Turkish mediation); some for a sanctions line; some for an "Arab front" against Iran.

I don't think Clinton is out of the loop; I just she is one loud voice in a policy which is not necessarily joined-up. She has made some over-the-top statements before (check out her 1st trip as Secretary of State to the Middle East in Feb/March 2009), and I think she may have puffed up a bit too much this AM.

Let's see what next moves out of Washington are....

S.

[Catherine]

RE 12.25 GMT, Iran says it has new nuclear proposal from West
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100215/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iran_nuclear_1

TEHRAN, Iran – A semi-official news agency quotes the head of Iran's nuclear program as saying the country received a new proposal last week from the United States, Russia and France, three of the countries trying to rein in Tehran's uranium enrichment program.

[Anonymous]

According to this blog post, the opposition may march on Feb 18 in Tabriz, although at the moment this is somewhat unconfirmed does this signal a change of tactics for the opposition?
http://jstabriz.blogspot.com/2010/02/29-17.html

[Pedestrian]

Dowlatabadi's statement on the arrest of Karoubi's son deserve a "best line of the week" award IMHO:
http://www.sidewalklyrics.com/?p=3924

[Samuel]

Interesting article from Tehran Bureau. Of course it tries to blame regime brutality for the Greenie failure but it actually confirms unintentioanally the fundamental Green weakness.

The fact of the matter is that the Greens are primarily an upscale, priviliged phenomenon. When it gets too difficult for them they stay at home eating sweets and napping.

The current govenment has made unprecedented and largely succesful efforts to mobilize the rural and small town population in fervent support of the IRI. Of course these masses, the true Iranian majority, are not on facebook or twitter or writing signs in English about "where is my vote". Not surprisingly this is beyond the comprehension of the fevered minds of much of the emigre community.

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranbureau/2010/02/why-north-tehranis-dont-revolt.html
Why North Tehranis Don't Revolt
by CORRESPONDENT in Tehran

[Cyrus]

@Samuel
you are either an outsider who doesn't know nothing about Iran and deeply brainwashed by the regime propaganda or an IRGC or regime supporter
green is not an upscale thing, people of all social classes in Iran took part in the movement & we've been only witnessed the ones willing to risk their lives inside the demonstrations, there are tens of millions more anti-regimes who didn't risk their lives or families situation to participate in the protests
people of Iran do not have any reason to support the current regime except the ones with direct ties to the regime
as a matter of fact, almost all the Iranians from inside on twitter are pro-regime or IR agents and ordinary opponents do not take the chance of getting exposed on twitter or don't have access to unfiltered internet
by the way Clinton's statement in Qatar may be translated as the west preparing for the invasion of Iran just to remove the current regime and quick withdrawal shortly after the temporary government is established, they have studied Iran and realized that Iran will not be another Iraq or Afghanistan because Iranians are far more educated, open minded, know what they want & will be able to establish a secular democratic on their own and without any help from outside

[gunni]

Interesting articel written by the " Spiegel" :
The only one who is weak is the Regime Leader.
" Chomenei understood the criticism from loyalty clergy about the politics of Ahmadinedschad as a vanishing support for himself".

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/0,1518,677579,00.html

Correct understanding - and everybody can see that his boat is sinking - but there is one guy left on EA who can `t - maybe a rather serious case for new glases ?

[Paleene]

@ Cyrus & Gunni

Don't waste your time on Samuel, friends. He shows up every now and then just to add some confusion (and for distraction). Most of the contributors here are done with him. Me too.

[Cyrus]

@Gunni
do you understand that people don't want a religious regime as their rulers, people will not support Khamenei no matter what position he takes, unless he clearly denounce the IR regime, step down, find a way to blame all the killings & tortures under his leadership on the others and put an end to the Islamic regime (something completely impossible)
this movement will survive and keep growing stronger underground until IR is gone and a secular democratic government is established
a Shiia pro-IR Iraqi statement in no way represent an Iranian point of view
the only way this regime could survive is under dictatorship and therefore any person appointed as the leader of this regime (even the nices and kindest person on earth) has to be a dictator so the Islamic Republic could survive
Iran under Mousavi could've been no better or even worse than what is under Ahmadinejad because at this point people are demanding a modern secular democracy, equality between women and men, political freedom, social freedom, all the things Mousavi has not ever had even a proposal for, he wants to take IRI back to the original Khomeini era, a worse brutal dictatorship than what Iran is today while under a secular democratic government he may become a very good leader, no one really knows

as I have always said, the election results was only an excuse for the people to express their demands and oppose the IR

[scott]

I find Hilary's statement interesting, I read it almost as a shot at the SL. She is basically telling him that he is losing control and that the world no longer views him as the leader of Iran. Maybe this can lead to some in fighting between the hard line clerics, and the IRGC.

[Cyrus]

@scott
very good point Scott, thanks for mentioning that.
The best help to the opposition is to split the regime from within, when they counter one another's forces, they will not have the strength to confront the people and the opposition

[Barry]

@Catherine

Since that announce re "new" nuclear proposal since AN's speech - US and Russia have both denied any further proposal.

What IS the truth?? I think that I would believe US and Russia first.

Barry

[Barry]

re 2008 GMT post

Hmmm --- electricity???

We have often discussed here about the emergence of something, some error by the Government, that turns out to be "tide turner".

Electricity has never been discussed. The "good Germans" would get angry if they had no electricity.

Barry

[ange paris]

Barry
EU has also denied any further proposal concerning nuclear issue .

[ange paris]

Barry
Here you are the link; it's written Paris and Moscow have denied the new proposal (from RTL info) :

http://www.rtlinfo.be/info/monde/international/307476/uranium-l-iran-parle-d-une-nouvelle-proposition-paris-et-moscou-dementent

An other link about France and England demanding an inquiry on abuses and violations of HR (le Figaro)

http://www.lefigaro.fr/flash-actu/2010/02/15/01011-20100215FILWWW00576-iran-france-et-gb-veulent-une-enquete.php

[Arshama]

@ 2050 GMT: New fuel swap proposal
FM speaker Ramin Mehmanparast asks for an official and written nuclear fuel proposal by the USA, "then we will sit down at the table of negotiations" http://www.ilna.ir/newsText.aspx?ID=108056
Sounds quite reasonable to me. Why is no one listening to him ;-)