UPDATED Iran Analysis: The Rafsanjani "Ultimatum" to the Supreme Leader

UPDATE 2100 GMT: Another possible twist tonight. Rafsanjani’s website has published an interview in which the former President talks about his letter to the Supreme Leader just before the elections, warning of President Ahmadinejad's "lies" and calling for a "fraudless" ballot. (Rafsanjani claims that that Khamenei did not object to the contents of the letter, but would have preferred it to have been published after the elections.) Rafsanjani also speaks at length about how he gathered funds for the clergy before the Revolution and how, together with others (such as Grand Ayatollahs Montazeri or Sane'i but with no reference to Khamenei), he was trusted by Ayatollah Khomeini to manage the revolutionaries’ funds.


The title of the interview: "In 42 some people were asking, 'Who will account for the blood of the 15 Khordad?'” That is a reference to the uprising of 5 June 1963, protesting the arrest of Khomeini; the protest was put down after six days by the Iranian military.

Perhaps Rafsanjani's question is not just historical recollection but an enquiry for today?

UPDATE 10 FEBRUARY, 1500 GMT: EA is now treated this story as confirmed. A reliable source has said that the Rafsanjani-Khamenei meeting was on Monday. Normally, in his official roles, Rafsanjani sees the Supreme Leaders on Tuesday; in this case, the former President asked for a special discussion.

While the immediate cause for Rafsanjani's intervention was the detention of Mousavi advisor Alireza Beheshti and the reported search by Iranian authorities for Beheshti's wife, Rafsanjani did ask the Supreme Leader to act on all cases involving political prisoners. Our source notes perceptively the "7 Tir families", relatives of those killed in a bombing in the early days of the Revolution, had asked Rafsanjani for help with Beheshti and other cases; other families, learning of this appeal, then approached the former President.

The Rafsanjani intervention should also be connected to another important meeting, days earlier, between the Supreme Leader and Grand Ayatollah Mousavi-Ardebili, one of the most important clerics in Iran and Shi'a Islam. Mousavi-Ardebili, in his first meeting in 17 years with Khamenei, declared that he was "disappointed" in the Supreme Leader's actions and urged him to act decisively for justice in the cases of the detained.

An EA correspondent adds:

It is reported that Ardebili had told Khamenei, “I know the leaders of the protests in Qom and Tehran. I testify that they are after reforming the affairs of the state based on the constitution and are not after toppling you. Your concerns over this are misplaced."

By mentioning “Qom”, the seat of clerical learning in Iran, Ardebili is telling Khamenei that there is a substantial movement against the establishment in its heartland. The mention of “not after toppling you”: either means that Khamenei is very worried about his own position now or it is a threat from one of Shi'a Islam’s few Grand Ayatollahs. Ardebili could mean, "They are not after toppling you, but don’t do something that will force us, the marjas (senior clerics), to have to topple you."

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Let’s assume that the Rah-e Sabz news about the Rafsanjani meeting with Supreme Leader, spurred by the attempt to arrest Alireza Beheshi’s wife, is accurate.

We could say that trying to arrest the daughter-in-law of Shahid Beheshti and traumatizing his grandchildren is just too much for Rafsanjani and he has finally snapped. In this case this could be the first “public” crack in the Rafsanjani-Khamenei relationship. This could create opportunities both for Ahmadinejad & Co. and for the Greens.

On the coup side, they could use this to isolate Khamenei even more and get him to agree to their strategy of further suppression and crackdown. On the Green side, they could use this to draw Rafsanjani (and those within the Iranian establishment who look up to him) away from Khamenei and Ahmadinejad. This would further undermine the legitimacy of Khamenei and the whole Islamic Republic as it stands.

There may be another explanation too....

As you recall just before 16 Azar (the protests of 7 December), Rafsanjani went to Mashhad and said that if the people do not want us, we will leave. At the time that was seen as distancing himself from Supreme Leader, and it may have encouraged more students (especially in smaller towns) to come out. One could argue that he was blowing onto the fire from a distance.

A few days ago, Ayatollah Mousavi-Ardebili went to Tehran to meet Khamenei. This was their first meeting in 17 years. Leaked details of the discussion suggest that Ardebili criticized Khamenei’s handling of the state affairs and asked for Alireza Beheshti to be freed. It is reported that the Supreme Leader dismissed the criticism and refused to help with Beheshti. This information was most probably leaked by someone close to Ardebili (as Khamenei would not want it to be known that he was criticized and is behind Beheshti’s detention).

Now a few days after that meeting and a day after the leaking of the details of the meeting, it is reported that Rafsanjani has criticized the state of affairs and the treatment of Beheshti. And again the news is leaked.

This comes soon after Mir Hossein Mousavi stated that the Revolution has failed to get rid of the roots of tyranny and dictatorship and that he is seeing signs of both in Iran today. Mehdi Karroubi has said that he does not believe in this kind of Islamic Republic. And Mohammad Khatami has indirectly accused Khamenei of being a partial arbiter. (Others like Ayatollah Dashgheib have also criticised the SL). All of these could lead to one logical conclusion: that Khamenei is not fit to lead the Islamic Republic.

Now it may be that Rafsanjani is also putting Khamenei under pressure, not just by his strong protest and “ultimatum” but by allowing the news to be leaked. If this is the case, Rafsanjani would have skilfully used the attempt to arrest Beheshti’s wife to his advantage. In this case, Khamenei should be very mad at the people behind the arrest.

This leaked news may also be an attempt by Rafsanjani to say to the protestors: go out on 22 Bahman, and we (Rafsanjani and his people) will ensure that the regime does not crack down too hard.

If so, this could be a tactic which Iranian insiders call “feshar az paeen, chaneh-zani az bala”: pressure from below, negotiations at the top. Khatami tried this during his Presidency, with limited success. At that time one could argue that there was not much pressure from below, but now it seems the pressure from below is quite strong. It remains to be seen how skilful the negotiators are.

UPDATED Middle East Inside Line: Lebanon Warning, Obama on Iran Sanctions, Clash within Palestinian Authority

Lebanon's Warning: On Wednesday, Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri warned Israel, "If there is a war against us, there won't be a division in Lebanon. We will stand against Israel. We will stand with our own people." He added: "We see what's happening on the ground and in our airspace and what's happening all the time during the past two months - every day we have Israeli planes entering Lebanese airspace. This is something that is escalating, and this is something that is really dangerous."

Israel's Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman responded sharply, "Hezbollah murdered his father (former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, assassinated in 2005 by unknown assailants) and he is in the position of being a hostage."

Israel: A Loose Cannon for a Middle East Conflict?

Clash in Gaza: Responding to two Gaza-made rockets fired into southern Israel on Sunday and Monday, the Israeli Air Force launched missiles into the southern Gaza Strip on Wednesday. A military spokesman said, "The Israel Defense Forces will continue to act firmly against anyone who uses terror against Israel, and we see Hamas as solely responsible for maintaining peace and quiet in the Gaza Strip."


Split in Israeli Cabinet: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman announced Monday that they intend to promote a bill that would let Israeli citizens vote from abroad in Knesset elections. However, Minister of Defence Ehud Barak was quick to criticize his the measure:

I strongly object to granting the right to vote to Israelis living permanently abroad. Only those people who are here with us and who bear the risks and burden of being here should be allowed to vote in Israel.

Obama Proclaims More Sanctions on Iran: President Barack Obama declared last night that a series of sanctions on Iran are to be developed in the coming several weeks, though he could not assure China's support in the UN Security Council.

Palestinian Authority Out in West Bank?: In an interview with The Jerusalem Post, Fahmi Shabaneh, who until recently was in charge of the Anti-Corruption Department in the Palestinian Authority's General Intelligence Service (GIS), warned that Hamas' victory the Fatah-controlled regime in Gaza in 2006-7 is likely to recur in the West Bank. He said that Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas had surrounded himself with many of the corrupt officials who used to work for his predecessor, Yasser Arafat, and added: “It’s hard to find people in the West Bank who support the Palestinian Authority. People are fed up with the financial corruption and mismanagement of the Palestinian Authority.”

The PA said on Wednesday morning that Shabaneh's allegations were part of an Israeli conspiracy aimed at undermining Abbas because of his refusal to return to the negotiation table unconditionally.

Iran Analysis: On the Eve of 22 Bahman

By yesterday, political battle lines had pretty much been drawn for the protests on 22 Bahman, the anniversary of the 1979 Revolution, this Thursday. The regime had made its threats and tried to disrupt the opposition, key figures such as Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi and other reformist parties and clerics had made their calls for peaceful demonstrations, and the Green movements (less visibly for obvious reasons) had put their preparations in place.

Then two events --- one confirmed, one rumoured --- shook up our analysis. First, Alireza Beheshti was released from prison last night after several weeks in detention. Mousavi's chief advisor had also been freed in the autumn after a brief spell in prison, but this move was more surprising. Ever since Ashura (27 December), the regime has been using arrests to try and break resistance, so why --- on the eve of 22 Bahman --- make an apparent concession?

Hours later, a possible explanation emerged. Rah-e-Sabz made its sensational claim that former President Hashemi Rafsanjani had personally intervened with a visit to the Supreme Leader after Iranian authorities attempted to arrest Beheshti's wife. He asked not only for a cessation to that threat but for the freeing of Beheshti, the son of one of the most famous figures of the 1979 Revolution. (See separate entry for analysis.)

Iran Snap Analysis: The Rafsanjani “Ultimatum” to the Supreme Leader

And there was more. Rah-e-Sabz claimed that Rafsanjani, having been "ambiguous" in his statements since early December, had given an "ultimatum" to the Supreme Leader to act against the abuses and injustices of the Iranian Government. The unsubtle implication, as Beheshti was freed last night, was that Ayatollah Khamenei had listened and accepted the former President's criticism.

Well, we'll see, since neither Rafsanjani nor the Supreme Leader --- or anyone else, for that matter --- is stepping up to confirm the report.

What is important, in the meantime, is that there is a significant difference on the eve of this event compared to the political environment before Ashura (27 December). On that occasion, the only prominent opposition figure who made a move was former President Mohammad Khatami, and his memorial speech for Grand Ayatollah Montazeri was rudely broken up by pro-Government protesters. Mousavi, Karroubi, and other senior clerics were all muted about the demonstrations to come. And, after those protests, "conservative" figures such as Ali Larijani were unstinting in their criticism of the "violent" and "foreign-backed" Green movement.

Now all these figures are in play. Mousavi, Karroubi, Khatami have put down their political markers for a big opposition show on Thursday and promised more to come. Rafsanjani, for the first time since early December, may have made his manoeuvre to challenge the Government. And Larijani, joined by others within the establishment, is now targeting Ahmadinejad as much as any Green protester.

This political change should not overshadow the importance of the demonstrations on the ground tomorrow. The demands "from below" for legitimacy, justice, and freedom are just as necessary as any high-profile statement or even "ultimatum".

Instead, what we now may have, for the first time since November, are the two halves of the challenge to the Government, and possibly the Iranian system, coming together. If the numbers are large, and even more if those multitudes are peaceful, then the Green wave for change will carry more possibilities for the politicians and clerics; conversely, each move by those politicians and clerics will bolster the demonstrators who are risking arrest and condemnation just by stepping foot into the streets and squares of Tehran and other cities on Thursday.

"From top" and "from below": it is less than 24 hours to 22 Bahman.

Israel: A Loose Cannon for a Middle East Conflict?

Sharmine Narwani writes in The Huffington Post:

Another war is looming in the Middle East, say the pundits. It is hard to ignore the whispers -- now louder -- when they are regularly punctuated by hostile statements from various officials in the region, leading further credence to a possible conflagration.

The likely site of the newest regional battle is the Levant. Funnily enough, nobody can pinpoint exactly where, although it is clear that Israel will be involved. Which should tell us something right there.

Middle East Inside Line: Hamas in Russia, Iran FM on “Crazy Israel”, Palestine Talks
Israel, Hamas, and Russia: Who is in Bed with the Bear?

Since the Jewish state's military attack on Lebanon in 2006, it has been itching for a "do-over." Why? Because for the first time in its history, Israel did not win a war. The month-long bombardment of Lebanon resulted in a stalemate -- an intolerable outcome by the standards of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF).

To add to the indignity, it was a mere few thousand men -- not even a national army -- that took the IDF by surprise.

The cornerstone of Israel's military strategy is deterrence -- whether though brandishing a nuclear arsenal to warn off threatening nation-states, or by Gaza-style intensive attacks that send a strong message to a weaker party. This is a highly militarized state that has lived under the legacy of conflict its entire existence. Loss -- or even perceived loss -- is not an option.


So instead of self-examination, Israel's conflicted, and increasingly right-wing political body unleashed a belligerent tone -- angry, defiant, threatening, unfocused like a petulant and wounded child. Diversionary tactics came into play to focus domestic and international attention elsewhere and fill the frustrating void -- Hamas in Gaza, the potential nuclear aspirations of Iran, Palestinian intransigence on peace talks, Hezbollah's weapons, Syria, Turkey, anti-Semitism, the Goldstone Report.

In recent weeks, Israeli officials have made inflammatory statements about conflicts on half a dozen fronts.

SYRIA:

"When there is another war, you will not just lose it, but you and your family will lose power," right-wing Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman challenged Syrian President Bashar al-Assad last Thursday, after Assad claimed that Israel is "driving the region towards war, not peace."

Lieberman went further and hit at the heart of any future Israeli-Syrian rapprochement: "We must bring Syria to realize that...it will have to give up on its ultimate demand for the Golan Heights." Israeli leaders have in the past accepted in principle that the Syrian Golan Heights, captured and occupied by Israel in 1967, would necessarily be part of any bilateral peace deal.

GAZA:

In January -- one year after Israel's Operation Cast Lead in Gaza that lead to the deaths of 1,400 Palestinians -- Major General Yom Tov Samia, former head of the IDF's Southern Command, told the Jerusalem Post: "We are before another round in Gaza... another war with Hamas is inevitable." And Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak warned Gaza's leaders to "watch their step, and not to cry crocodile tears if they force [us] to take action."

The hue and cry about Hamas' rockets hitting Israeli towns was Tel Aviv and Washington's driving narrative in defense of Israel's military actions in Gaza. Still is. But just this week, the Jewish State announced that a new $200 million rocket defense system called the "Iron Dome" will not be deployed against Gaza as promised. Too expensive for Gaza, says the military, explaining that it will be deployed elsewhere where there is more of an "imminent" threat.

And this comes after months of Israeli insistence that Hamas has significantly boosted its military capabilities and has obtained long-range rockets, mostly from Iran. So which is it -- either they do or don't have weapons, either they do or don't pose a threat?

LEBANON:

No two other parties have been more relentlessly subjected to Israeli threats than Iran and Hezbollah. Last summer, after it was clear that the Lebanese resistance group Hezbollah would likely participate at the cabinet level in any unity government formed following Lebanon's June elections, Israeli leaders fell over themselves in their rush to issue warnings. Netanyahu, Barak and Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon all threatened that any border attacks would be blamed on the Lebanese central government -- with repercussions.

Just last month, Israeli Minister Yossi Peled opined, "Without a doubt we are heading for another round (of battle) in the North. No one knows when, but it's clear that it will happen."

And so both Hezbollah and Israel have moved weapons systems closer to their mutual borders.

IRAN:

Iran, in turn, has been the recipient of non-stop bombing threats from Israel over its civilian nuclear program, which the Jewish State claims is really a clandestine plan to build nuclear weapons and delivery systems. Never mind that some two dozen International Atomic Energy Agency reports over six years show no diversion of materials to weaponization. Or that Israeli military intelligence has been extending the date for a finished Iranian nuclear warhead since the 1990s. Last June, Mossad Chief Meir Dagan declared the new date for the first Iranian nuke would be in 2014. But Israel's war drums have kept beating as though these weapons were already sitting on launch pads, ready to go.

TURKEY:

Relatively new on the scene in the game of belligerent words is Turkey. A rare Israeli ally in the Middle East both in political and military terms, Turkey has drawn away from the alliance since Israel's widely-criticized Gaza attacks last year, when Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan lashed out at the particularly brutal IDF campaign.

Things have gone from bad to worse since, culminating a month ago in the now-infamous Ayalon row when the Israeli deputy foreign minister publicly and deliberately humiliated Turkey's ambassador in front of cameras. Israel has called Turkey anti-Semitic and very recently slammed the Turkish prime minister again when he drew attention to the continuing Israeli blockade of Gaza and its daily violations of Lebanese airspace.

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Some Israeli critics suggest that the destabilizing escalation in rhetoric may not just be as a result of Israel's psychological loss in 2006, but more recently, because of an increased paranoia about international isolation -- the result of war crimes allegations documented against Israel in the UN's Goldstone Report about the Gaza war, and the country's ongoing occupation of Palestinian lands.

In a stunning attack on his government two weeks ago, Israeli writer Gideon Levy wrote a commentary piece in Haaretz in which he takes to task their "cynical" use of Holocaust Remembrance Day to propagandize toward political ends:

"An Israeli public relations drive like this hasn't been seen for ages. The timing of the unusual effort - never have so many ministers deployed across the globe - is not coincidental: When the world is talking Goldstone, we talk Holocaust, as if out to blur the impression. When the world talks occupation, we'll talk Iran as if we wanted them to forget."

But the escalation of rhetoric from Israel's right-wing government is not being viewed as simple political posturing -- more, like a promise of battle. As concerned as the Jewish State may be about conflict on its borders, its neighbors -- having been on the receiving end of superior Israeli weapons, and having suffered far larger numbers of civilian casualties -- are taking these words very seriously.

Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Muallem, at a joint press conference with Spain's Foreign Minister Miguel Angel Moratinos on Thursday pointed to this verbal escalation of hostilities by calling on Israel to "desist from making threats against Gaza, southern Lebanon, Iran and now Syria."

Because rhetoric after all creates a perception. And perception is 100% of politics -- not to be played with when standing on a tinderbox. The Levant has always been rife with small-scale border skirmishes -- that is the way of an area re-mapped by foreigners, with unnatural, artificial borders. But it is only Israel that has, since 1973, launched full-on military battles from these skirmishes. And without a doubt it is gearing up for a fight. Where, is anyone's guess.

The Latest from Iran (9 February): 48 Hours to Go

2205 GMT: The Tajik Show? BBC Persian follows up on the curious story of the "release" of former Vice President Mohammad Reza Tajik from detention. Tajik appeared on the 22:30 programme on IRIB 2 saying that there was no election “fraud” and that “foreign and Zionist media” are riding the wave of the protests.

2145 GMT: Lawyer Forough Mirzaei and Mahin Fahimi, a member of "Mothers for Peace", have been released from detention.

2100 GMT: And Analysing Rumour of Day (Week? Month?). We've posted a snap analysis considering the reasons for and implications of a Rafsanjani "ultimatum" to the Supreme Leader.

NEW Iran Snap Analysis: The Rafsanjani "Ultimatum" to the Supreme Leader
NEW Iran Feature: Human Rights Round-up (1-7 February 2010)
Latest Iran Video: Protest at Sharif University, Tehran (8 February)
Iran Document: Khatami Statement for 22 Bahman (8 February)
Iran Special: The 57 Journalists in Iran’s Prisons
The Latest from Iran (8 February): Staying with the Real Story

1924 GMT: Rumour of Day (Week? Month?) --- Rafsanjani "Ultimatum" to Supreme Leader. The Green site Rah-e-Sabz, without citing a source, makes the following claim:

Authorities went to arrest the wife of Mir Hossein's chief advisor Alireza Beheshti, who was already detained, on Tuesday, but could not find her. She then called Hashemi Rafsanjani from her hiding place and told him, "Look where we have got to that the grandchildren of the late Ayatollah Beheshti (Alireza Beheshti's father) have to be on the run in dahey-e fajr (the 10-Day Dawn preceding the anniversary of the 1979 Revolution)." This allegedly upset Rafsanjani to the point to tears.

During his regular Tuesday meeting with the Supreme Leader, Rafsanjani reporetedly demanded the immediate release of Beheshti and an end to these “shameful” actions. Beyond this, Rafsanjani spoke with Ayatollah Khamenei about the management of the country, the post-election crisis, detentions, and the press. The former President then allegedly gave Khamenei an ultimatum (“etmam-e hojjat”, which may also translate into “last word”) to take action.

Rah-e-Sabz says that it will publish more about this meeting later.

Now there is no way to verify the website's claim, but Alireza Beheshti has been freed. Coinicidence or validation of the report?

1920 GMT: We have posted an updated list, amidst recent arrests, of 63 journalists in Iran's prisons.

1820 GMT: Confusion over Tajik. Earlier today there were reports that Mohammad Reza Tajik, a Vice President in the Khatami Government and professor at Shahid Beheshti University, had been released with Alireza Beheshti (see 1723 GMT). Now it is being announced that Tajik has not been released but will be on television at 22:30 local time (1900 GMT) to talk about post-election events. Is this a version of the "confessions" aired on Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting this summer?

1815 GMT: Ali Malihi, a journalist with Etemaad newspaper, has been arrested at home.

1730 GMT: But Nabavi Gets 5 Years. An Iranian court has confirmed a jail sentence of five years for leading reformist politician Behzad Nabavi.

1723 GMT: Beheshti Released. Mehr News is reporting that top Mousavi advisor Alireza Beheshti has been released on bail from Evin Prison.

1720 GMT: The Fate of the "9". Remember that, at the time of the executions of Mohammad Reza Ali Zamani and Arash Rahminpour two weeks ago, the Iran Government declared that nine other political prisoners faced the death penalty? Iranian state media are now reporting that one of the nine will be executed while eight will serve prison sentences.

1710 GMT: Competing Protests. Peyke Iran reports a trend in labour protests for workers to chant Green slogans.

Meanwhile, pictures from pro-Government demonstrators protesting today in front of the Italian and French Embassies.





1635 GMT: More on Human Rights. Complementing our own round-up and list of journalists (which we need to update --- it is now 65 detained in Iran's prisons), Pedestrian has posted an update on a number of cases.

1630 GMT: Crime and Punishment? Kalemeh claims, from a judiciary official, that a 23 year-old man has been arrested for the murder of a protestor, shot by a pistol, on the evening of 24 Khordad (14 June) in Tehran. The official also says that the accused --- who is not identified as member of the military, police, or Basij militia --- did not have orders from any security officials and was acting by himself.

1535 GMT. Carrot. Stick. The rumour of the day, put out by Parleman News from a source in the Tehran prosecutor's office, is that key Mousavi advisor Alireza Beheshti will be released within hours.

The reality of the day is that the son of Mehdi Karroubi, Hossein, has had his passport confiscated as he got off a flight from Dubai.

1525 GMT: Back from academic break to find that the Italian Foreign Minister, Franco Frattini, has claimed that "dozens" of Basij militia tried to attack Italy's embassy in Tehran today.

1205 GMT: Saleh Noghrekar, Zahra Rahnavard’s nephew and the head of the legal committee of Mir Hossein Mousavi’s campaign, has been arrested.

1200 GMT: The family members of detainee Mohammad Nourizadeh, former chief editor of Kayhan who following criticised the Supreme Leader and the head of the judiciary in a post-election letter, have been summoned to the Revolutionary Court.

1055 GMT: Tehran's Back-and-Forth Sideshow. So here's the latest from Iran's Foreign Ministry on the uranium enrichment talks:

"“The issue of a nuclear fuel swap [with the West] … is still open. We have announced our conditions in a clear and transparent way. If the other sides provide our conditions and adopt a realistic approach, it (the swap) would be possible. It (the swap) by no means goes counter to our obtaining the required fuel through other means."

1030 GMT: A Relatively Quiet Morning. No significant political moves, so as we prepare for coverage of 22 Bahman, we are trying to assess the extent of the slowdown/halting of communications, as are other front-line media covering events. Some EA sources inside Iran can still communicate with us; others appear to have been cut off.

0740 GMT: Putting on the Show. Latest on the uranium enrichment front --- Iranian state media is loudly proclaiming that Tehran, under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency, has begun the attempt to enrich its stocks from 3.5 to 20 percent.

0730 GMT: Qalibaf v. The Government. Tehran Mayor Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf, relatively quiet in the post-election crisis but still a key political player --- and possibly a central figure in a move against President Ahmadinejad --- has again attacked incompetent officials, comparing them to "rioters".
0723 GMT: An Appeal to the Supreme Leader. Ayatollah Mousavi-Ardebili has visited Ayatollah Khamenei, seeking the unconditional release of all political prisoners and exclusion of "radicals" from the Government.

0720 GMT: Today's Prison Numbers. Two students have reportedly been released by Iranian authorities, but 16 more have been detained, including 14 from Amir Kabir University.

0705 GMT: Baghi, Montazeri, and the Interview That Led to Jail. Emadeddin Baghi's interview with Grand Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri, filmed two years for the BBC but never aired, has now surfaced. Baghi has been detained since December, in part because of this video. This is part 1 of 3:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5lRIw8ivIYk[/youtube]

0700 GMT: Add another journalist to our list of those detained. Vahid Ostadpour has been arrested.

0655 GMT: Amidst the articles on Iran this morning, full marks to Reza Aslan at The Daily Beast as he previews 22 Bahman and puts the President's nuclear move in its place: "Ahmadinejad is trying everything in his power to change the subject....These announcements are a joke; they cannot be taken seriously."

0650 GMT: Imprisoning Dissent. On Monday, former Deputy Foreign Minister Mostafa Tajzadeh was sentenced to six years in prison for his threat to "national security". Here is an example of that threat in a speech before the election (hat-tip to Pedestrian):

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KzqJY8JjTJM[/youtube]

In the days of the Shah, the people of Iran had every kind of freedom, except for political freedom. When one of the slogans of the revolution became esteghlal, azadi, jomhooriyeh eslami [independence, freedom, the Islamic Republic of Iran], by “freedom” they only meant political freedom. Which other kind of freedom was it that we didn’t have? You could freely practice your religion. If you were the type who wanted to go to the mosque, you could, if you wanted to go to a bar, you also could. The path was open. The freedom we did not have was political freedom. We did not have a free press, we did not have free political parties, we did not have free elections, we did not have free unioN....

With what rationality did the Imam [Khomeini] put aside the Constitution [during the time of the Shah]? His most important reason, the brightest, most historic [reason] he put forth, was when he said: “Our fathers, our mothers, in another time, thought that this Constitution [the one under the shah] was the best. Today, their children are mature and wise, they recognize that they want a new Constitution.” He thus acknowledged the right of every generation to govern its nation on its own....

It is imperative that the election be free, and if for any reason, anyone undermines this freedom, they are acting against the law. They tell us: “Don’t worry” [about fraud in the election]." Well, we are worried. I personally am very distraught over what Mr. Mahsouli [Ahmadinejad's Minister of Interior in 2009] is doing over at the Interior Ministry. They are shuffling around and changing everybody these days, even the secretaries. I don’t know what they are doing in there that has become so secretive and confidential.

0645 GMT: We've posted the debut of what we hope will become a regular feature: Tricia Sutherland looks over the past week in a "Human Rights Round-up".

0620 GMT: So another day in the countdown to 22 Bahman begins.

Monday was more a day of manoeuvre and anticipation than high drama. The Supreme Leader did put out a high-profile statement but, despite the headlines of "punching" Iran's enemies and declaring the Islamic Republic's supremacy, there was little beyond the rhetoric. Both Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mohammad Khatami used meetings and interviews to reiterate demands and determination, while making clear that their approach was not tainted by foreign intervention and within the framework of the Republic.

And, of course, the regime continued its efforts to ensure that their supporters, rather than the opposition, have the public space to themselves on Thursday. There was a steady stream of reports of detentions. Loudspeakers were set up alongside the likely route of the Green movement's march, and communications continued to be restricted, with claims that stations like Voice of America Persian are now jammed.

What is harder to read, in part because of those fogged communications, are the preparations for the demonstrations. Is the claim of "3 million on the streets" --- taken not from an opposition spokesperson but from a source inside Tehran's police headquarters --- best assessment, a bit of sensationalism, or even disinformation to set up a let-down when the crowds fall short of that number?

Wait-and-see time.