Wikileaks Special: The Consequences for Turkey and the US

I have written often of Ankara's pro-Western tendencies, underlining that Erdogan's government is nothing short of a liberal and pragmatic organisation, seeking relative autonomy in the region without raising an eyebrow in the Oval Office. So have a look at this ridiculous quotation, taken from an adviser to the ruling AKP party and added into a US report: "Turkey wants to take back Andalusia and avenge the defeat at the siege of Vienna in 1683."

There are only two options for an analyst: either some of the American diplomats are seriously ignorant about the politics and strategies pursued in the country where they are authorized to work or they are being asked to report any shred of "information" without filtering it.

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Turkey in the Axis of Radicalism? An Alternative View of Europe (Dedeoglu)

If cooperation between France and the UK compels Germany to reinforce ties with Russia, then we will witness a real axis shift within the EU. If that happens, the debates on Turkey will also change as the “non à la Turquie” front collapses. The EU member countries may start competing with each other through Turkey, and some countries may stop refusing Turkey’s accession and while others increase their level of opposition.

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China This Week: Hu, Sarkozy Prep for G20; Stronger Ties with Europe; Beijing Tells US to Stay Out of Dispute with Japan

Hu, Sarkozy Prepare for G20:  Chinese President Hu Jintao and his French counterpart Nicolas Sarkozy met in the French Riveria last Friday to discuss reforms to the international monetary system, trying to coordinate their stance before the Seoul G20 summit.

France, which takes over the chair of the G20 group of leading economies in mid-November, has placed reform at the top of its agenda during its one-year tenure.

Chinese President Calls for Stronger Ties with Europe: Hu said on Tuesday that China attaches great importance to its relations with Europe and wants to strengthen ties with the region.

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Video and Latest on Bombing in Turkey: 32 Wounded but Still No Claim of Responsibility

On Sunday, a suicide bomb was detonated in the heart of Istanbul, wounding 17 civilians and 15 police. Istanbul Police Chief Hüseyin Çapkın said the male bomber tried but failed to get into a parked police van, detonating the bomb just outside the vehicle.

After the incident, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Edogan said:

I am, once again, reminding all that there will be no tolerance to those who want to stir up trouble and break the peace, stability and security atmosphere and that these attacks can never retain Turkey from solidarity, brotherhood and its growth targets. We are one, we are together, we are brothers and these games will be broken as long as our solidarity, unity and brotherhood remains. What lies behind these games? The prevention of a developed and modern Turkey lies behind [them]!

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Turkey Analysis: What Does Ankara's New "Red Book" of Threats Mean?

On Wednesday, Turkey's National Security Council (MGK) agreed to make radical changes to a document. referred to as the “Red Book” or the "Secret Constitution", in which the main threats over the next five years to Turkey's security are outlined.  

Is the Erdogan government a new "De Gaulle" which is just pursuing its political calculations or is it the Trojan Horse aligning with "radicals" such as Iran, Syria, Hamas and Hezbollah?

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The Latest from Iran (2 October): Adding Up the Punishments

1707 GMT: The Bazaar Strikes. Claimed video of the closing of the gold market today in Ahvaz in southern Iran:

1655 GMT: Syria in Tehran. So how did President Ahmadinejad's showpiece visit from Syrian counterpart Bashar al-Assad go?

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UN Commission: Israel Broke International Laws in Flotilla Raid (BBC)

The BBC reports:

Israel's military broke international laws during a raid on a Gaza-bound aid flotilla, a UN Human Rights Council investigation says.

Its report said the action by commandos, which left nine dead, was "disproportionate" and "betrayed an unacceptable level of brutality".

It said there was clear evidence to support prosecutions against Israel for "wilful killing".

Israel rejected the report as "biased" and "one-sided."

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The Latest from Iran (21 September): Protests and Gasoline

2025 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. AFP has now picked up the story that former President Hashemi Rafsanjani met the families of political prisoners and promised to raise their cases with the Supreme Leader.

2015 GMT: Attacking the Judiciary. A curious and possibly significant editorial in the official Islamic Republic News Agency --- which is generally in league with the President's office --- criticising Iran's judiciary for allowing political prisoners to write letters which are then publicised.

1930 GMT: Economy Watch. Vice President Mohammad Reza Mirtajoddini has denied that the Government is postponing the implementation of its subsidy cuts, scheduled for next week.

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Iran Feature: Top Tehran Analyst Zibakalam "Sanctions Have Worked"

These remarks from Professor Sadegh Zibakalam, one of Iran's top analysts of international affairs are striking, especially when set against President Ahmadinejad's all-is-well assurances. They were featured in Aftab News last week:

We should not wonder why the Koreans have joined the group of countries sanctioning us....South Korea exports $40 billion worth of car parts to the United States. Should Korea not give into American pressure, it could lose the American market....

I believe the next countries to sanction Iran will be China and Turkey....Turkey exports $15 billion to the 25 countries of the European Union each year. Should the EU give Turkey trouble and should Turkey be forced to choose between Iran and the EU, it is only natural that the Turks will choose them, just like...when Japan and South Korea chose to do so.

It would be most unpleasant if the Americans make trouble for the Chinese....China has for some time decreased its investments in and oil purchases from Iran. There was a time when we were the second-largest oil exporter to China in the Persian Gulf region, but today we come in eighth. Our oil exports to China have decreased to 200,000 barrels per day from 800,000 barrels per day.

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Middle East Special Analysis: The Israel-Syria-Palestine Triangle

Washington’s “Wise” Plan?

As the deadline for Israel's construction freeze in the West Bank approaches, US Mideast special envoy George Mitchell hinted at a tactical manoeuvre to keep the Palestinian Authority at the table for direct talks after 26 September: "We think it makes sense to extend the moratorium.”

What kind of extension could this be, however? Relatively short, at best, given the position of Israel's Netanyahu Government. The American hope is to keep some momentum in discussions, avoiding both an Israeli walkout and the labelling of the Palestinians as "rejectionist".  

As soon as the Arab League responded by saying that they would back Ramallah if Israel resumes construction from 26 September, Washington refined its manoeuvre. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton talked to Israel’s Channel 10 on Thursday: "Where we sit now it would be useful for some extension, it would be extremely useful. I don't think a limited extension would undermine the process going forward if there were a decision agreed to by both parties."

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