The Alternative Inauguration Watch

Later post: A Gut Reaction to the Obama Speech
Later post: A New Nation

1:30 p.m. I've posted an entry, "A Gut Reaction to the Obama Speech", which incompletely, possibly incoherently summarises my mixed emotions on this day and on the day after. We've posted the transcript of the speech, which is also available via CNN.

President Barack Obama is now lunching with Congress before his motorcade to the White House and the Inaugural Parade. It is afternoon, but It is Still Morning in America.

Thank you for joining us today.

12:25 p.m. The closing set-piece as Obama invokes "the father of our Nation" George Washington huddled with his troops at Valley Forge in the midst of hardship: this is how America today "faces its common dangers".

"We carried forth that great gift of liberty and delivered it safely to future generations."



12:24 p.m. As Obama refers to himself as the child of a man who could not get served 60 years ago and who is now taking "this sacred oath", a big round of applause....

12:23 p.m. A return to the old truths of "courage and patriotism" with a new responsiblity: "This is the price and promise of our citizenship....This is the meaning of our liberty."

12:21 p.m. The tribute to America's "fallen heroes" as example of greatness for the rest of us, but also...

"The kindness of workers" who take in those when the levees break (there's the reference ot Katrina), to the firefighters who protect us, etc.

12:19 p.m. America's strength comes from its patchwork heritage: "As the world grows smaller, our common humanity shall reveal itself and America must play its role."

To Muslim world: we seek way forward based on mutual trust and mutual respect --- A message sent out to those who are corrupt and deceitful, but we will extend a hand "if you will unclench your fist"

12:18 p.m. "Our security emanates from the justice of our cause."

And specifics --- leave Iraq to its people and ensure security of Afghanistan. To the terrorists: "we will defeat you". (round of applause)

12:17 p.m. "We reject as false the choice between our safety and our ideals. Our Founding Fathers, faced with perils we can scarcely imagine drafted a charter of ideals which inspired the world" (cutaway to shot of former President George W. Bush) and "assured the rule of law and the rights of man. That Charter inspired the world and we will not give it up for expedient's sake."

"America is a friend of each nation, and we are ready to lead once more."

12:16 p.m. "The question is not whether Government is too big or too small, but whether it works." (Compare that to Ronald Reagan's dismissal of "Government" in 1980.) Nor is it a question of free market right or wrong, but the fact that it is "surest route to our common good".

12:14 p.m. "Starting today we must pick ourselves up, dust ourselves off, and rebuild America." We will rebuild our economy, raise up science and technology, harness energy, and transform schools and universities.

"There are some who question the scale of our ambitions" (take that Congressional opponents of my economic plan) "but they have forgotten what this nation has done."

12:11 p.m. "The time has come to reaffirm our enduring spirit." --- "All are equal, all are free."

Call to reaffirm greatness of nation but "we" have always known this must be earned. So hail to the risk-takers and the brave, who crossed oceans, toiled sweatshops, went to the West, endured the lash of the whip, fought and died "for us".

"America is bigger than the sum of our individual ambitions."

12:10 p.m. Decline measured in statistics but also in confidence. However, now, "know this, America, these challenges will be met....We have chosen hope over fear, unity of purpose over discord." There is an end to "petty grievances" that plague our politics.

12:09 p.m. Obama: "We are in the midst of crisis. Our country is at war" against a far-flung enemy, economy in troube. "Our collective failure to make decisions" has strengthened our adversaries and threatened our planet.

12:07 p.m. To chants of "Obama!", the 44th President begins his Inaugural Speech.

Polite applause when Obama thanks George W Bush, who is no longer the President of the United States of America.

12:06 p.m. GEORGE W BUSH IS NO LONGER THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA.

12:06 p.m. Barack Hussein Obama is now President of the United States of America.

12:05 p.m. Well, Obama just fluffed his lines taking the oath, but I don't think it matters. "Congratulations, Mr President."

12:04 p.m. Chief Justice John Roberts introduced to give the oath and the crowd is already screaming.

12:01 p.m. The alternative post for 11:57 a.m.: "Biden sworn in. Dick Cheney no longer vice president, instead just a creepy old guy (in a wheelchair) who shoots his friends in the face."

11:59 a.m. Pause for a John Williams song performed by Itzhak Perlman, Yo Yo Ma, etc.

I'm sorry but, if I'm in that crowd in sub-freezing temps, I'm thinking, "Can we just put this on 78 rpm?"

11:57 a.m. Joe Biden takes the oath to become the Vice President of the United States. Must be the shortest speech he's ever given.

Good round of applause but you know that folks are holding back a bit for what's to come.

11:53 a.m. Sing It, Aretha. In the service of a new Anglo-American relationship, Ms Franklin has just started on the British national anthem "God Save the Queen", also known as "My Country 'Tis of Thee".

11:48 a.m. Pastor Rick Warren, a controversial choice, delivers the invocation. Respectful but muted applause except for a couple of boos.

Not sure "Hear O Israel, the Lord is our God" is the most politically sensitive choice of Scripture, given current events.

11:43 a.m. I do have chills up my arms as I type this: Barack H. Obama has been introduced as the next President of the United States. I cannot capture how loud that cheer sounded.

If only this moment can be carried forward over the next months and the years....

11:43 a.m. Via Twitter: "Standing O for the O-man at the Paramount [cinema]. Sustained whooping and hollering."

11:40 a.m. Fox's Juan Carlos Williams is worried about the "tightness" in Obama's jaw. Chris Wallace adds, "We're in a severe economic crisis, we're in a continuing War on Terror, we're in two wars...."

C'mon guys, lighten up.

11:39 a.m. Vice President-elect Joe Biden comes out to a massive roar. Meanwhile, shots of Obama coming down the Capitol stairs. No smile, very measured.

11:36 a.m. President Bush, Vice President Bush, and Cabinet walk onto platform (a reader notes: "DEFINITELY not handcuffed"). Bush shakes a few hands, makes small talk, "How you doin'?" (And somebody replies, "Keep up the good work.")

Bush is going through the motions, so looking forward to getting onto the helicopter for the airport.

11:34 a.m. Fact check (for 16th, 17th, and 18th times this morning): The Capitol was built by slaves.

11:30 a.m. And here comes, in his last 30 minutes as President, George W. Bush. Forgive me, but he looks fidgety, biting his lips and eyes darting about. He's struggling to pull it together for the cameras.

11:28 a.m. But, if Fox can't quite accept Clinton, our readers can accept George H.W. Bush: "I kinda liked Bush 41's purple scarf. Aptly Imperial."

11:25 a.m. Michelle Obama's mother and the Obamas' children walk onto the platform.

11:22 a.m. After Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush are introduced with their wives, Bill and Hillary Clinton are introduced to a huge cheer from the crowd.

Fox commentators are taken aback: "Just sends a thrill up your spine." Juan Carlos Williams, "Wow, the American people. Just reminds me --- we are a country who celebrates our leaders."

C'mon, gentlemen: say it. That crowd was celebrating a leader who happened to be Bill Clinton. Yep, the President that Fox trashed for eight years.

Chris Wallace: "Some people are happy about the events, some people not so happy, look...." And then, let's talk about the Lincoln Bible.

11:16 a.m. Former Presidents Carter, George H.W. Bush, and Clinton arriving on the platform.

11:13 a.m. Simple but essential reminder from a reader: "People need to see this happen. Hope is powerful."

11:06 a.m. CNN's Blitzer: This Inauguration could have a larger US television audience than the final episode of MASH (which, by the way, was a comedy series about the US embroiled in a never-ending war --- so no relevance there).

11:04 a.m. Useless Graphics Moment: Fox cuts away to animated shot of route that Obama will take through the Capitol to the platform. Thank goodness, they figured out that Michelle Obama's brother is on the platform so they could trash thousands of dollars of computer eyewash.

11:02 a.m. Supreme Court Justices walking onto the platform.

11 a.m. Kudos to Steven Spielberg: "I couldn't afford to do this shot in a movie."

10:55 a.m. What can you say over the footage of a motorcade going from White House to Capitol Hill?

1. Talk about previous rides that didn't go well --- Hoover and Roosevelt (1933), Truman and Eisenhower (1953)
2. Mention that manhole covers are welded shut and all postboxes removed
3. Wow, it's really cold.

10:48 a.m. Bush and Obama emerge from the White House to go to Capitol Hill. High-pitched screams of excitement. For Obama or for Bush?

10:45 a.m. Dick Cheney emerges in a wheelchair to go to the Inauguration.

Let's repeat that. Ted Kennedy is walking about on the Inauguration Platform, despite a brain tumour. Dick Cheney is in a wheelchair.

10:43 a.m. More CNN insight into Bush-Obama chats: "Do you think they talk substance? (Bush: "What do you say to going out a bang --- bomb Iran?" Obama: "Step aside, Dubya.") Or is light chit-chat?"

10:40 a.m. Senator Edward Kennedy, looking pretty well despite his battle with a brain tumour, arrives on the platform.

10:35 a.m. No News Moment: Chris Wallace on Fox, "See that motorcade. It doesn't include President Bush or President Obama."

10:25 a.m. Highlight for Fox reporter: crowd bouncing about and bobbing to giant-screen replay of Inaugural Concert. "You think about the inter-racial harmony of this day: Garth Brooks doing the Isley Brothers and moving hundreds of thousands of people."

Thus, one man's glorious harmony becomes another's vision of musical hell.

10:24 a.m. Fox reporter on the Mall: "I haven't seen a single individal misbehave....We have a table with coffee and doughnuts, and I haven't even seen a single person attack that table."

Hmmm....is the moral that Americans are angelic or that your coffee and doughnuts suck?

10:20 a.m. Fox's Jim Angle has just referred to the "3 Vs" of this day: "Validation, Vindiction, and Victory."

Yep, Vindiction.

10:19 a.m. VIPs arriving for the ceremony. Well, not that many VIPs and not that quickly. Fox has to settle for former Governor of California Jerry Brown.

10:17 a.m. OK, I Won't Forget: For the 15th time this morning, "Don't forget, the US Capitol was built by slaves."

10:15 a.m. The first suggestion for the Bush letter to Obama (see 9:58 am.) comes from "Rattal007" : "I want to be US Ambassador to Iraq."

If only. I think Dubya is settling for city life in Texas and whatever he can make from his memoirs (no doubt written all by himself).

10:10 a.m. Over on Fox, Carl Cameron is standing in the Capitol Rotunda. It (see 6:38 a.m.) is still empty.

10:05 a.m. CNN is offering both sublime and ridiculous.

Ridiculous from Wolf Blitzer as the Bushes greets the Obamas: "I wonder if the microphones on the scene caught any of the chit-chat. Every word now is historic." (Like Bush to Obama: "How are you?" Obama to Bush: "Step aside, Dubya. There's a new sheriff in town.")

"They call it a coffee. I don't know if they're drinking or what they're drinking, maybe hot chocolate, maybe tea, but they call it a coffee."

Sublime from David Gergen: "There was a time when it was brandy. We had a Vice President in 1865, Andrew Johnson, who got totally drunk. They almost had to kick him out of the Inaugural."

9:58 a.m. CNN reporters reveal: "When Barack Obama goes into the Oval Office, there on the desk will be a letter written to him from George W. Bush. Nobody knows what is in it." Any suggestions?

9:55 a.m. The crucial question (and answer) flashes across my computer screen: "Is Michelle Obama taller than George Bush? I think she is, at least in shoes."

9:54 a.m. And now He is entering the White House.

9:40 a.m. You Have Been Warned: Security agencies say once 350,000 people are on the Mall, the gates will be shut.

9:20 a.m. Don't Bring Me Down: Fox is speaking with Obama's political strategist, David Axelrod, and decided to focus on the "realities of the office": less than half of $30 billion of highway construction funds will be released into economy in next four years.

Sorta like the guy at your New Year's Party who wants to talk about the virtues of central heating systems.

9:10 a.m. Hope and Big Brother: After raving about the enthusiasm of the crowd, CNN spends a few minutes panning across the sniper teams on the roofs of buildings: "Anybody who has any intention of causing harm here knows they're under the watchful fire of the United States SecretService or the FBI or any other of the 58 agencies enlisted to provide security for this event."

9 p.m. CNN's coverage has just been lost in how impressive this is --- "We have never seen anything like this on the Mall." And, you know what? Even on a 25-inch TV (without High Definition), it is.

8:55 a.m. Who's the Heckler at the Back? Joseph Farah of WorldNetDaily:

I want Obama to fail because his agenda is 100 percent at odds with God's....Nowhere in the Bible does it teach us to obey evil rulers.

8:45 a.m. We see Him! We see Him! Barack and Michelle Obama emerge from Blair House to go to private church service. Apparently the Bidens are also there.

8:40 a.m. Advice of the Day: An 85-year-old suspected war criminal, a Mr H Kissinger, has emerged to tell Barack Obama the secret to US foreign policy ---- Use a Lot of Jargon:

The complexity of the emerging world requires from America a more historical approach than the insistence that every problem has a final solution expressible in programmes with specific time limits not infrequently geared to our political process. We must learn to operate within the attainable and be prepared to pursue ultimate ends by the accumulation of nuance. An international order can be permanent only if its participants have a share not only in building but also in securing it. In this manner, America and its potential partners have a unique opportunity to transform a moment of crisis into a vision of hope.

8:10 a.m. Fox is in feel-good mode, talking to American football legend Jim Brown, who is now with Amer-I-Can. Brown on Obama: "This is a great man."

7:50 a.m. One-Liner of the Day: as Dick Cheney attends the Inauguration in a wheelchair, either because he has strained his back or because he doesn't want to stand up for Obama: "His transformation to Bond villain is complete."

7:40 a.m. Culture of Fear alert: Newt Gingrich "There are some really bad people who wouldn't mind randomly causing damage on a day like this."

7:30 a.m. Obama's incoming Press Secretary Robert Gibbs has appeared both on CNN and Fox. He seems a lovely fellow, but the chat was so bland I can't remember a word of significance.

7:25 a.m. Fox is worried that Pastor Rick Warren, delivering the Inaugural Prayer, will not be allowed to mention "Jesus".

7:20 a.m. US commentary has descended from discussion of the weather to discussion of "how tough is it to get to the Mall?" Which is fortunate, since it is preventing Laura Ingraham on Fox from launching her standard rants about liberals.

7:03 a.m. Fox: apparently the crowds on the Mall moving towards the light of the Jumbo-Trons "is something akin to an alien landing".

6:53 a.m. That's more like it: Sky News in Britain is concentrating on Obama speech by talking to a bookmaker who's quoting odds on a mention of Hillary Clinton (6-5 on), British Prime Minister Gordon Brown (33/1), and hero pilot Chelsey Sullenberger (4/1). Oh, yes, you can also bet on whether Obama's tie will be red or blue.

6:48 a.m. Culture of Fear reminder: Thanks, CNN, for not letting go of this today. Ten minutes spent with "former Bush security advisor" on possibility of Obama being assassinated, people sneaking through security cordons, etc.

6:40 a.m. Shameless Self-Advertisement of the Day: Fox reporter now waxing lyrical about an empty museum, possibly because it's the "News History Museum" of News Corporation (owned by Rupert Murdoch, who just might have some connection with Fox)

6:38 a.m. Fox's intrepid reporters are breaking news by talking about the empty Inauguration Platform and the empty Capitol Rotunda.

6:30 a.m. Leaving a Man Behind: No Presidential pardon for the only Administration official to take a fall for Iraq, illegal surveillance, detention, torture, etc. Lewis "Scooter" Libby, Vice President Cheney's former fixer and part-time novelist, will remain the Poster Jailbird.

6:25 a.m. Fox is now in its pattern for the day: pundits are shouting beyond comprehension at each other about "Obama's First 100 Hours", so they switch to a profile of actor Lorenzo Lamas (who?).

CNN's scheme at the moment is just to talk to "common people" and avoid shivering.

It's Morning in America (6 a.m. Washington time): CNN International is giving this the big festival/parade treatment, with on-the-ground reporters shouting, "It's insane!" (or possibly, "I'm insane!"), and constant temperature checks (20 degrees Fahrenheit at the moment --- not-insane anchorman yelling, "Remember in The March of the Penguins where the crowd huddles for warmth?"). Access to the mall wasn't supposed to start until 7 a.m. but thousands are sneaking in, apparently via some magic passage near the Washington Monument.

Fox News is preferring immediate political scrutiny, both to big up the outgoing President ("Is Obama Trying to Rehab Bush's Image?") and to jab at the incoming one with irrelevancies ("Did Jill Biden Spill the Beans on Her Husband as Possible Secretary of State?")

The Israeli Invasion of Gaza: Rolling Updates (19 January)

Earlier updates: The Israeli Invasion of Gaza (18 January)
Latest Post: Scott Lucas on BBC Radio Wales about Obama, Economy, Gaza

Photo by Sameh Habeeb (see updates at 8:45 a.m. and 10:40 a.m.)

12:50 p.m. A steady as she goes day. Israeli officials kept quiet to judge the reaction their "unilateral cease-fire" --- whether the spin that Israeli forces are withdrawing as a present to President Obama will become clear in 24 hours. Arab states chose a surface appearance of consensus over the political issues that are redefining their relations; whether that changes tomorrow will be up to Syria. Some Europeans, far too late, decided to make a push for a settlement.

And all eyes turn to Washington where a new President is inaugurated, with the question of what the US might do to re-define the Gaza equation. My own suspicion is that Obama and his advisors are playing catch-up, so don't expect much beyond the surface naming of officials and maybe envoys to consider the American approach.

Good night and peace to all.

11:45 p.m. More Better Late than Never, Europe Style: European Foreign Ministers invite their Middle Eastern counterparts to Brussels for a bit of a chinwag later this week.

9:45 p.m. Further to Rafah Kid's blog on Israeli use of white phosphorous (5:30 p.m.) and the revelations of the mass killing at Khuza'a (yesterday's updates), The Guardian of London has posted a report, accompanied by a video of white phosphorous and of the effects on civilian victims.

8:40 p.m. Better Late than Never? After Europe's ineffective performance at the start of the Gaza conflict, the European Union has tried to recover some influence. German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier has proposed, after consultations with EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana and Czech Foreign Minister Karel Schwarzenberg, the current EU President, "humanitarian action, the prevention of illicit arms trafficking, re-opening crossing points into Gaza, help with reconstruction, and a resumption of the peace process".

The significance of the move probably lies not in any potential for success but in the politics behind it: "Steinmeier wanted to ensure the United States alone did not lead diplomatic efforts in the region."

8:25 p.m. Amnesty International has criticised Israeli deployment of white phosphorous weapons: "Such extensive use of this weapon in Gaza's densely populated residential neighborhoods is inherently indiscriminate. Its repeated use in this manner, despite evidence of its indiscriminate effects and its toll on civilians, is a war crime."

An Israeli military spokesman has replied, ""In response to the claims ... relating to the use of phosphorus weapons, and in order to remove any ambiguity, an investigative team has been established in southern command to look into the issue."

8:15 p.m. Ghassan al-Khatib, former Palestinian Minister of Planning says "no ways" for reconstruction aid or materials to get into Gaza under current conditions.

I think rebuilding of Gaza might be a way off.

5:30 p.m. Rafah Kid continues to offer essential reporting from Gaza: his latest entry describes the Israeli attacks, civilian casualties, and the situation in Gazan hospitals. His description of "chemical burns" and "an unextinguished incendiary device" points to the use of white phosphorous. If Palestinians and Israelis do not agree, then an "international mechanism" will have to be found to deliver the aid.

Rafah Kid also describes the killing of a local farmer by Israeli troops after the start of the cease-fire.

5:20 p.m. Update on the Kuwait summit: shadow Arab unity? Sheikh Hamad, the Qatari Prime Minister, issued what was in effect a holding statement, praising "a reconciliation led today by [Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah] with ... the emir of Kuwait.... We left with an understanding that undoubtedly a new page had been turned that would benefit and strengthen the Arab position."

It could well be that Saudi economic clout has brought all Arab countries onto the political fence, but it would be well worth keeping an eye on the next signals out of Syria.

5:15 p.m. Welcome to the Re-Occupation, however. Israeli officials say, "Israel intends to exert control over the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip following its 22-day offensive, and is seeking guarantees that no U.N. projects will benefit Hamas."

Bottom line: no recognition of Hamas, no lifting of economic restrictions, including the "freeing" of border crossings.

5:10 p.m. Situation is little changed on military front, with no resumption of violence but no further developments on the Israeli withdrawal.

5 p.m. Have just finished set of media interviews on Obama inauguration with Birmingham radio stations and on Gaza with Iranian News Agency

2:35 p.m. Latest from the Kuwait Summit: Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas has made his plea to have some role in Gaza, though I am not sure he has thought through his suggestion of "simultaneous" Presidential and parliamentary elections: at this point, he and Fatah might be hard-pressed to win in sections of the West Bank and Gaza.

Abbas does have one vote, however: the hopeless-beyond-hapless United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon has urged Arab leaders to support Abbas as head of a Palestinian unity government. And, behind the scenes, a "senior European official" has tried to support the plan by saying that "there will be no international assistance to rebuild Gaza's infrastructure with Hamas in power".

All of this appears somewhat desperate, an impression not lost on Syrian President Bashir al-Assad as he pressed his political advantage of support for Hamas. He has called for the declaration of Israel as "a terrorist state".

Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, sits firmly on the fence. King Abdullah has tried to deflect the political issues by promising $1 billion in reconstruction assistance to Gaza --- a declaration that only has salience if Israel, backed by the US and Europe, allows the aid. He has also declared that "one drop of Palestinian blood" is worth more than all the money in the world, which I am sure will comforting any bleeding Gazans who hear the statement.

2:30 p.m. No Politics Here: Israeli sources say they will fully withdraw from Gaza before President-elect Barack Obama takes oath of office.

2:25 p.m. Meanwhile, Turkey has bailed out of the Egyptian proposals. Following Hosni Mubarak's announcement that Egypt would never accept international monitors on its side of the Egypt-Gaza border, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has withdrawn Turkey's offer to participate in an international force.

2 p.m. Trying to recover his position, Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas has told the Arab economic summit at Kuwait: "What is required, if we were to agree and I hope we shall agree, is a national unity government that undertakes ... lifting the (Israeli) blockade, opening the crossings, reconstruction and holding simultaneous presidential and legislative elections."

Abbas's position is tenuous because his term as President of the West Bank expired last week. The PA-controlled Ministry of Justice in Ramallah decided that Abbas's term would be extended until 25 January to coincide with the end of the legislative term, but Hamas have announced their intentions to declare an "interim" President for the West Bank.

11:40 a.m. Hamas military spokesman Abu Obeida says the organisation will re-arm despite the Israeli agreement with the US and European countries to block shipments: "Do whatever you want. Manufacturing the holy weapons is our mission and we know how to acquire weapons,"

11:30 a.m. Requiem for the United Nations leadership --- Robert Fisk in The Independent of London:

When I asked Mr Ban [UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon] if he would consider a UN war crimes tribunal in Gaza, he said this would not be for him to "determine". But only a few journalists bothered to listen to him and his officials were quickly folding up the UN flag on the table.

11:25 a.m. Donald Macintyre in The Independent of London:

Even in the darkness, we could see the piles of rubble: one had been the police station, destroyed in the heavy bombing on the first day of Israel's offensive, killing 22 Hamas policemen; another pile accounted for the houses that had been destroyed around Muntasa, a favoured children's play area and park which the Israelis say militants had used for firing rockets – residents deny the claim. The park is no more, a field of smashed masonry and concrete.

11:10 a.m. Israeli military says that it is withdrawing some reservists but regular units are holding their positions.

11:o5 a.m. "Utter devastation": With no diplomatic or military developments, Al Jazeera and Press TV are giving extensive coverage to the scale of the destruction from the Israeli assault. Other news services in Britain, including CNN, have moved to other stories.

10:40 a.m. Sometimes Internet activism works....We updated two hours ago on the removal of photojournalist Sameh Habeeb's album from the Google-owned Picasa website for "violation of Terms of Service". Well, after a lot of cyber-chatter, the album has reappeared.

9 a.m. Jerusalem Post editor David Horovitz explains the failure of Israel's efforts to achieve regime change: Gazans are too stupid to remove Hamas from power....

Unlike Hizbullah, [Hamas] cannot credibly claim to have fought bravely against the IDF. Its fighters, rather, melted away into the deepest recesses of civilian protection. And while the likes of Marzouk and his colleague Khaled Mashaal sounded consistently indomitable from the comfort and safety of the Syrian capital, the local Gaza leadership simply hid....

But will the people of Gaza, who chose Hamas as their leadership three years ago, internalize any of this?.... Will Gazans get the message? Or, confronted with the ruins all around them, will they instead redouble their hostility to Israel, forgive Hamas what was either cynicism or foolishness, and rededicate themselves to helping their elected Islamist leadership to eventually prevail over the Zionists?

8:45 a.m. More on photojournalist Sameh Habeeb, whose reports from Gaza have been a vital first-hand source during the conflict. Picasa has bravely removed his entire album of photographs because "the content...violates our Terms of Service".

8:15 a.m. Alive in Gaza has posted a new audio interview with photojournalist Sameh Habeeb in Gaza City: "No One Wants to Talk about Politics".

8:10 a.m. More background on the run-up to the conflict, this time from the humanitarian front. The UN's chief humanitarian co-ordinator in Israel, Maxwell Gaylard, says that Tel Aviv that "deliberately blocked the United Nations from building up vital food supplies in Gaza that feed a million people daily".

A spokesman for the Israeli Foreign Ministry replied that the claim is "unqualified bullshit".

Morning update (8 a.m. Israel/Gaza time): Little military action overnight, as both Israel and Hamas settled into their political and military positions. Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert says there will be a pullout "with highest possible speed" if "the cease-fire remains stable". Hamas leaders are claiming victory in their resistance to the Israeli invasion.

Almost 100 bodies were pulled out of the Gazan rubble yesterday, including 23 from the site of the Zeitoun mass killing of members of the al-Samouni clan. Despite statements from survivors that "it was an intentional massacre", the Israeli military continues to deny any responsibility: ""The [Israel Defense Forces] is not familiar with any order to civilians to enter any particular building. The IDF does not give those orders."

With the Israeli destruction and bulldozing of more than 4000 buildings and houses, ten of thousands of Gazans are homeless. Ambulances and aid, including medical supplies, are still blocked at the Egypt-Gaza border, and only a few dozen wounded Gazans were brought into Egypt for treatment.

Joe The Plumber In Israel: "I think media should be abolished from, you know, reporting."

CNN's Rick Sanchez questions Joe The Plumber's journalistic credibility:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9BE0rc2aZpc&eurl[/youtube]

[via Robot Heart]

The Israeli Invasion of Gaza: Rolling Updates (15 January)

Latest Post: Israeli Government Document Says Hamas Did Not Fire Rockets From June to November 2008

12:30 a.m. We predicted last night that it would be a momentous 24 hours. It was, but not on the diplomatic front, where Israel --- confident that the Arab world was dithering, that Egypt would not go too far in conceding to Hamas, and that the US is still writing a blank cheque --- stalled. Instead, the deadly action was military, as the world woke up to Israel's gradual achievement of "Phase 3".

The Israeli invasion of Gaza City started badly on the public-relations front, as they shelled hospitals, high-rises (including one housing media organisations), and the UN compound and set thousands of residents to flight. The advance faced limited resistance from Hamas fighters, however, and Tel Aviv got a major coup --- at home and we'll see how much abroad --- when its target assassination strategy finally worked with the slaying of Hamas officials, including former Minister of the Interior Saed Siam.

Yet all this merely brings round our question from last night: is tomorrow the day when the Israeli Government finally decides that it will moves toward a cease-fire or will it press for even better terms by squeezing the population of Gaza City, Rafah, etc. further?

Good night and peace to all.



11:45 p.m. Hamas has confirmed the death of former Interior Minister Saed Siam, killed in an Israeli airstrike with five others.

The report of the death of Hamas military leader Mahmud al-Zahar was in error, confusing two incidents. He was not at Siam's house; instead, Israeli forces surround al-Zahar's home, killing five bodyguards but failing to locate him.

10:00 p.m. Ban Ki-Moon, capping off a fantastic day for United Nations diplomacy, says that it may take a 'few more days' to work out the technical details of a Gaza ceasefire. Translation: the issue of who monitors the borders, and thus when they open, is a major sticking point.

9:05 p.m. Ministry of Defense official Amos Gilad has returned from Cairo and talking to Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, Defense Minister Ehud Barak, and Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni. I suspect that means no significant announcement until the Gilad discussions are presented to Israeli Security Cabinet on Friday.

8:45 p.m. Hamas tried to re-seize the diplomatic initiative. Its officials have told Egypt that it will agree to a year-long ceasefire if Israel opens the borders immediately and withdraws its forces in seven days.

It's a clever move, if it commands attention. There is no way that Israel will agree to opened borders without an arrangement that it likes on monitoring (which probably means some involvement/oversight by Israeli forces). It is likely to respond, with the killings of Hamas officials this evening, that the Gazan organisation is only reacting from weakness, and there is a good chance that Israeli officials would like to press their military advantage for a few more days.

So Hamas may be able to portray themselves as the party seeking peace, especially if outrage over Israeli hitting of civilian targets, such as hospitals and the UN compounds, overrides the focus on the military "success" of the targeted assassinations. For that to happen, however, it needs support from somewhere --- Arab states, the United Nations, maybe a European leader. That, however, is unlikely in the next few days unless there is a general demand, in the media and in public opinion, for a cessation of the violence.

8:05 p.m. Al Jazeera says former (not present) Hamas Interior Minister Said Siam, his brother, and son killed with three others in Israeli airstrike. It does not mention the death of Mahmoud Watfah.

7:45 p.m. Ha'aretz: Hamas military leader Mahmoud Watfah also killed in airstrike on Interior Minister's house.

7:25 p.m Well, this buys Israel some time, deflecting from the row over the shelling of the UN compound, the injuring of journalists in the attack on the Sharooq Tower, the rising civilian death toll, the tangled diplomatic talks....

Al Aqsa TV confirms the death of Hamas Interior Minister Said Siam in an Israeli airstrike.

7:05 p.m. Israel claims to have killed Hamas Interior Minister Said Siam and his brother in an attack on his house.

6:15 p.m. The report of Israeli response has come from Egyptian television and now from a senior Egyptian diplomat to Agence France Presse. Still no coverage in US or British media.

5:55 p.m. News Alert: It is being reported that Israel has given a "totally favourable response" to the Egyptian proposals for a cease-fire. This follows news that US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has told Israeli Prime Minister that the US will sign an agreement to measures to prevent the rearming of Hamas.

CNN International and Al Jazeera English, which is carrying the emergency session of the United Nations General Assembly, have yet to mention the supposed breakthrough.

5:40 p.m. Question of the Day comes from UN official Chris Gunness: ""If there were militants in our compound, why weren't we told?"

5:20 p.m. CNN's website has a summary of the near-farcical diplomatic fiddling, while Gaza burns, by Arab nations. Anas Qtiesh's commentary, "Arab Leaders Can't Come Together, Not Even into a Room", is well worth a read.

4:20 p.m. Forgive me, but here we go again: a senior Israeli officers say the UN compound was shelled, with artillery and white phosphorous, fter Israeli forces came under fire from militants. UN official John Ging has denied there was any shooting from the compound.

3:30 p.m. British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, breaking from the US, has condemned Israel attack on UN facilities "unacceptable" and called for immediate cease-fire.

3 p.m. Interesting journalistic approach from Al Jazeera: It has put a "victim's wall" listing the names and ages of the 210 children killed in the Gaza conflict that it has identified so far.

Meanwhile, Israeli spokesman Mark Regev announces that 20 journalists will be allowed into Gaza, but they must be embedded with Israeli Army "for their security". Credit to the CNN correspondent who just scoffed at this, since journalists would have to submit all their reports to the Army for approval.

2:50 p.m. Oops, here is why that "Fatah In, Hamas Out" strategy might not work. Isabel Kerchner in The New York Times:

Israel hoped that the war in Gaza would not only cripple Hamas, but eventually strengthen its secular rival, the Palestinian Authority, and even allow it to claw its way back into Gaza.

But with each day, the authority, its leader, Mahmoud Abbas, and its leading party, Fatah, seem increasingly beleaguered and marginalized, even in the Palestinian cities of the West Bank, which they control. Protesters accuse Mr. Abbas of not doing enough to stop the carnage in Gaza — indeed, his own police officers have used clubs and tear gas against those same protesters.

2:35 p.m. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad is holding a press conference, lambasting Israel and the United Nations.

2:05 p.m. We've put up a separate post on the significance of the press conference: "Fatah In, Hamas Out", but on a personal note:

In my opinion, "I've just witnessed a disgrace." If there was any hope in the diplomatic process after the Egypt-Hamas talks, it has been sabotaged by Livni's declaration of a "regime change" strategy in Gaza. And I cannot believe that a UN Secretary-General, only hours after his own people and operations were damaged --- perhaps irrevocably --- in Gaza would not only sit there and take the blows but endorse Tel Aviv's approach.

1:45 p.m. Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, following Ban Ki-Moon's statement, laid the strategy on the line for Hamas out, Fatah in:

""Gaza has been controlled by terrorist organization that doesn't fight for the aspirations of the Palestinian people. It is not part of the peace process....We  need to achieve a peace process with the pragmatic leadership, the legitimate Palestinian Government (her emphasis) and simultaneously to address terror, to fight terrorism, to continue the de-legitimisation of Hamas."

1:43 p.m. About those Israeli attacks on UN facilities and personnel this morning; Ban Ki-Moon says he "expressed strong protest and outrage" and demanded full explanation. He then had telephone talk with Israeli Defense Ehud Barak, who said attacks were "grave mistake" and assured "that extra attention would be paid to UN facilities and staff" in future.

Well, that's all right,then.

1:40 p.m. Ban Ki-Moon says he discussed humanitarian situation with Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni. He says UN working with Israel "to alleviate the crisis as much as possible": "I appreciate the Israeli Government's measures to establish a Humanitarian Operations Center and to provide the necessary humanitarian assistance."

1:30 p.m. Important development: United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon has just issued his press statement after meeting with Israeli leaders. He calls for immediate cease-fire with reopening of borders, halt to rockets and resupply to Hamas, and release of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit. And...

"Gaza is reunited with West Bank under one legitimate Palestinian Authority".

Which means the political strategy of bringing Fatah back to Gaza --- and not recognising Hamas --- continues.

1:16 p.m. Al Jazeera reports that Israeli forces have surrounded the home of Hamas co-founder Mahmud az-Zahar.

1:15 p.m. Nice symbolic touch: someone has placed two Israeli flags in front of the media reporting from the Israel-Gaza border.

1:05 p.m. Resident of Gaza City high-rise occupied by Israeli soldiers (speaking to Al Jazeera's Ayman Moyheldin): women and children fled, Israeli troops have detained the men in lower floors of the building.

12:25 p.m. UN official John Ging: UN has not suspended operations but Gaza City headquarters is now cut off: "This is a test of our humanity. It's also a test of our ability to enforce legality and just be by-standers."

Ging says Red Cross building in Gaza City has been hit by Israeli fire. (Latest info: apparently it is Red Crescent hospital building which has been struck.)

12:20 p.m. UN official Chris Gunness: Because the fire in the UN compound is from three white phosphorous shells, it cannot be "put out by conventional means."

12:15 p.m. Israel radio with doctor in Tal al-Hawa hospital: Building hit by Israeli tank shell (not bomb). Fuel tank outside hospital struck, causing large fire.

12:10 p.m. Al Jazeera: Tal al-Hawa hospital in Gaza City hit by Israel bomb with 500 people inside.

12 noon: Smoke billowing from UN aid warehouse, which is on fire after a direct hit from at least three Israeli shells.

11:37 a.m. Shourooq Tower, which house many media organisations in #Gaza, hit by Israeli shelling.

11:35 a.m. Fantastic line from Al Jazeera analyst Mouin Rabbani: "There's a growing feeling in the region that, while Muslims pray towards Mecca, some of their leaders are in fact praying in the direction of the White House."

11:20 a.m. Orwell strikes: As it shells Gaza City and Rafah and escalates ground operations, Israel announces a four-hour "humanitarian" respite for today, even though UN says any aid delivery is impossible.

11:15 a.m. Putting reports together on fighting in Tal al-Hawa: Israeli tanks shelled three high-rise buildings before Israeli soldiers occupied them. Unclear whether residents of buildings fled before or after the tank fire.

11:01 a.m. CNN follows Al Jazeera reports of "main UN aid compound" in Gaza hit by Israeli fire. UN official John Ging says compound hit by artillery and white phosphorous, injuring three UN workers.

11:00 a.m. Thirteen rockets fired this morning into southern Israel.

10:55 a.m. Projection: Israeli forces are making current advance into parts of Gaza City to pursue diplomatic negotiations from a "position of strength".

10:50 a.m. Live on Al Jazeera: Intensive Israeli attack in Tal al-Hawa, in the southern part of Gaza City, with Israeli soldiers taking up positions in high-rise buildings. Reports of similar operations in eastern Gaza City. Thousands of resident fleeing.

This is a significant escalation in operations: in recent days, Israeli forces have moved forward at night, not during the day.

10:45 a.m. Juan Cole, excellent as always, offers an incisive examination of the humanitarian situation to consider whether Israel is a "rogue state".

10:30 a.m. In case you missed it: Israel turned back an aid boat carrying doctors, medical supplies, and journalists. The Israeli naval force surrounded the boat and threatened to fire unless it returned to Cyprus.

9:45 a.m. Further to our 9 a.m. update "Decision Day?": The Israeli shift in position, sending officials to Cairo and Washington for talks, follows a mini-climbdown by Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, who ended his boycott of Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and Defense Minister Ehud Barak and met them yesterday.

9:30 a.m. Split amongst Arab States: Following our update yesterday on Saudi Arabia proposing a meeting of the Gulf Cooperation Council as an alternative to an Arab League emergency meeting, Egypt is suggesting a meeting on Sunday just before an Arab economic summit in Kuwait.

At least in the short term, two Arab coalitions have emerged: one led by Egypt and Saudi Arabia, who are playing for time because of their dislike of Hamas, and one led by Syria (supported by non-Arab countries such as Iran and Turkey), who want a more assertive political intervention. Whether this has long-term significance will be an important issue, even after the supposed end of hostilities in Gaza.

9:15 a.m. Crushing Hamas? A revealing story, if you can get under the surface, on BBC radio's Today programme (at 0715). An Israeli military spokesman says that about 300 Hamas fighters have died since the Israeli ground invasion, in addition to a "few hundred" killed in the first week of the aerial assault.

The Israeli figure, however, includes Gazan policemen, an estimated 170 of whom have died. Removing that number, the outcome is that Israel after three weeks has killed at most 430 Hamas fighters. That is out of a (conservatively) estimated Hamas force of 15,000.

9:01 a.m. United Nations official Chris Gunness says that UN personnel cannot get to warehouses to distribute aid because of "red-hot shrapnel" lying around the sites.

9 a.m. Despite the diplomatic moves, Israel not only continued its bombardment overnight but also "moved into crowded parts" of Gaza City. A mosque was amongst the targets hit, while a targeted assassination attempt hit the home of a Hamas official, missing him but killing three others.

The Gazan death toll is now 1033 --- more than a third are children. Al Jazeera's Ayman Moyheldin reports that more than 80,000 Gazans have been displaced.

Morning Update (9 a.m. Israel/Gaza time): Decision Day? Three days late, Israel is sending Ministry of Defense official Amos Gilad to Cairo. The BBC is reporting that Tel Aviv is also sending a senior Foreign Ministry official to the US. Both developments indicate that the Israeli Government is ready to enter negotiations on the terms of a possible cease-fire.

This follows the news on Wednesday that Hamas has put forward its response to Egyptian proposals in an attempt to find a settlement. That said, there are still huge sticking points. Hamas is demanding both that Israel end the blockade and that it have no personnel in the force monitoring the borders. Israel will insist not only on an end to rocket fire but will try and retain the right to strike Gaza if even one launch is made.

And this is only in the short-term, of course. The wider issue is a two-fold question of recognition: does Hamas recognise Israel as a state? And does Israel recognise Hamas as the legitimate political leadership of Gaza?

Gaza: Israeli Government Document Says Hamas Did Not Fire Rockets From June to November 2008

UPDATE: I have checked the English-language website of the Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center. I cannot find the specific Government briefing cited by Channel 4, but the ITIC's reports --- to be precise --- indicate few rocket attacks between the cease-fire on 19 June and 4 November (what it calls the "lull"). These are the key lines in the update of 16 November: "Another important facet of the recent escalation is that for the first time, there is direct Hamas involvement in the rocket and mortar shell fire....At the same time, Hamas heads and spokesmen publicly stated that their intention was not to end the lull arrangement but to provide “an equal response” to what they call the “Israeli violations."

I've just heard once more, this time from Jerusalem Post editor David Horowitz on CNN, that the catalyst for the current conflict in Gaza was the firing of rockets into southern Israel by Hamas.

We've already out the official release from the Israeli Government that undermines this assertion: only 11 rockets were fired between July and October 2008, with the escalation taking place after an Israeli raid killing six Hamas activists on 4 November. Channel 4 in Britain has gone even farther, however, with an Israeli Government that says Hamas fired no rockets between June and November 2008.



Questioning former Israeli Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom, who claimed "even during the cease-fire, Hamas was firing rockets on a daily basis", Channel 4's anchorwoman pulled out an Israeli Government briefing: "Hamas was careful to maintain the cease-fire. Rockets were fired, but they were from splinter terrorist organisations." Although Shalom insisted on sticking to his script of Hamas targeting "women and children", the anchorwoman did not concede:

ANCHORWOMAN: This document is published by the Intelligence and Terrorist Information Center at the Israel Intelligence and Heritage Commemoration Center and they say Hamas maintained the cease-fire.

SHALOM: It's not the Government.

ANCHORWOMAN: But it's given to foreign journalists by the Government as a statement of the facts.

SHALOM: Listen, you like to hear the facts or you like to invent something?....My mother lives there. I know if they were firing or not.

And there was still one more twist. Israeli spokesman Mark Regev confirmed that Channel 4's document was genuine. "Between June and November 2008, only 20 rockets were fired, "and these were fired by organisations other than Hamas".