Gaza: It's Not Necessarily All About Tehran

Latest Updates: The Israeli Invasion of Gaza (16 January)

Last week, we noted --- via the wisdom of William Kristol --- the litany of comment setting out the fight in Gaza as a de facto fight against Iran. Israel had to triumph over Hamas, the argument runs, or Hamas' sponsors in Iran would win a big victory in their drive for regional supremacy.

Trita Parsi, in our opinion one of the best analysts of Iranian politics and US-Iranian relations, has offered the following dissection of the Hamas = Iran narrative:

Israel, Gaza and Iran: Trapping Obama in Imagined Fault Lines

In talking about the assault on Gaza, neo-conservative pundits and Israeli hardliners have relied on a familiar frame. The fighting in Gaza, they say, is a struggle between Israel and so-called "moderate" Arab states (namely, Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia) on the one hand, and Iran, Syria, Hezbollah and Hamas on the other. In reality, Israel is fighting Iran in Gaza, the argument reads.
These imagined Manichean fault lines defy logic and reality. This conflict is the last thing Tehran would have wished for in the last few weeks of the Bush administration. It increases the risk of a US-Iran confrontation now, and reduces the prospects for US-Iran diplomacy once President elect Obama takes over - neither of which is in Iran's national interest. Rather than benefiting from the instability following the slaughter in Gaza, Iran stands to lose much from the rise in tensions. And so does Obama.



To Iran, Hamas is no Hezbollah

While there certainly is an underlying rivalry between Israel and Iran that has come to fuel many other otherwise unrelated conflicts in the region, not every war Israel fights is related to Iran. In this specific case, the parallels to the 2006 Lebanon war are inaccurate. Iran's ties to Hamas are incomparable to the much deeper relationship Iran enjoys with Hezbollah. Iran's close relationship with Hezbollah is rooted in the Iranian view that Shiite minorities in Arab countries are Iran's most likely allies and agents of pro-Iranian sentiment; consequently, backing Hezbollah is viewed to be in Iran's core national interest. In contrast, Iran's relationship with Hamas is a marriage of convenience at best.

In spite of its ardent pro-Palestinian rhetoric, Iran's relationship with Palestinian groups -- including Hamas -- has often been strained. Tensions with Yasser Arafat's Palestinian Liberation Organization were mostly rooted in Arafat's insistence on defining the Israel-Palestinian conflict as a secular Arab nationalist cause -- leaving non-Arab Iran with no opening to play a leadership role in the Muslim world's cause célèbre. Differences with Hamas, however, derived from a mix of politics and ideology. Hamas' intellectual roots go back to the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, a Sunni fundamentalist movement. Furthermore, during the Iraq-Iran war, both the PLO and Hamas expressed support for Saddam Hussein.

Throughout the 1980s, Iran was better at offering rhetoric than practical support to the Palestinian cause, due to Iran's immediate security concerns. This changed in the mid-1990s, when Iran feared that the Oslo peace process was partially aimed at securing Iran's prolonged isolation and political exclusion. But even after the outbreak of the second Intifada, the Iranians took the lead in making grandiose speeches about Iranian backing of the Palestinian cause, but seldom tried to live up to the standards set in its statements. As I describe in Treacherous Alliance: The Secret dealings of Israel, Iran and the United States (Yale University Press), European diplomats in contact with representatives of Islamic Jihad and Hamas visiting Iran after fighting between Israelis and Palestinians had broken out reported back that both groups were utterly disappointed with their Iranian hosts whom they accused of making empty promises -- Tehran neither provided them with money nor weapons. A joke in the streets of Tehran reflected Iran's pretense: "Why aren't there any stones left to stone the adulteress? Per the order of the Supreme Leader, all the stones have been shipped to Palestine as Iran's contribution to the Intifada."

Again, history seems to be repeating itself. After daily demonstrations in Tehran in favor of the Palestinians, including a six-day sit-in at Tehran airport by hard-line students demanding government support for sending volunteers to fight in Gaza, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei contained the protesters by thanking them - while pointing out that Iran was not in a position to go beyond rhetorical support since "our hands are tied in this arena." Other Iranian officials have reinforced that message. General Mohammad Ali Jafari, commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, declared that Hamas does not need military support to defend itself. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's brother indicated to the demonstrators at Tehran airport that Iran's support for the Palestinians would be limited to "spiritual support for the victimized people of Gaza."

Why Israel's offensive in Gaza should worry Obama

Tehran's complex, if not conflicted, response to the assault on Gaza can best be understood in the context of its broader strategic aims. By rejecting any material Iranian support or involvement in the Gaza battles, Iran's strategic imperatives trumped its ideological concerns and pretenses once more. Khamenei's statement regarding Iran's hands being tied resembles Ayatollah Khomeini's refusal to support the Lebanese Shiites by directly entering into war with Israel in 1984 through his edict that the road to Jerusalem goes through Karbala. That is, until Iran has defeated Saddam Hussein, it will not be sucked into a conflict with Israel, regardless of Tehran's ideological opposition to the Jewish state.

Contrary to the neo-conservative narrative that the fighting benefits Iran, Tehran seems to view the Israeli assault on Gaza as highly problematic for several reasons. First, there are suspicions in Tehran that Israel's offensive is a trap with the aim of drawing both Hezbollah and Iran into the fighting. With only weeks left till President Elect Obama takes office, any direct conflagration between Iran and Israel would significantly reduce Obama's ability to deliver on his campaign promise of opening talks with Tehran without preconditions.

Second, increased tensions and polarization in the Middle East undermines Obama's ability to pursue a new policy towards this region, including a shift in America's 30-year old policy of isolating Iran. In fact, polarization along the imagined Gaza fault lines - and a misleading equation of Hamas with Tehran - traps the incoming Obama administration in an involuntary continuation of the Bush policies that contributed to the increased instability in the Middle East in the first place. From the vantage point of Israeli hardliners, this may be a welcomed outcome since it will make compromise with Tehran more difficult and pressure on Israel less likely. Hence, Tehran seems poised not to help reduce Obama's maneuverability.

Third, the conflict is creating unwelcome tensions between Iran and key Arab states. Arab dictatorships fearing that the rise of Iran would weaken America's position in the Middle East and that the survival of Hamas would embolden Islamic nationalist opposition groups throughout the region - both of which would undermine these Arab governments' undemocratic rule - initially sided with Israel by remaining silent or explicitly putting the blame on Hamas. But as the casualties rose and the images of slaughter spread on Arab satellite TVs, the anger of the Arab streets reached the Arab palaces and courts. A similar pattern was seen in 2006 when many Arab governments initially welcomed Israel's air assault on Hezbollah in Lebanon. There, the change of heart had less to do with the images of Lebanese casualties and more to do with Hezbollah's surprising resilience and fighting power.

Though it is true that increased tensions enables Iran to score propaganda victories on the Arab streets, since many Arab states have either remained silent or secretly collaborated with Israel to defeat Hamas, this does carry a great risk for Tehran. If the fighting in Gaza goes on for too long, the spillover effects will be felt in increased Arab-Iranian tensions at a time when Tehran is more interested in soothing ties with the Arabs in order to minimize Arab disruption to any potential US-Iran opening.

The neo-conservative narrative and its imagined fault lines may temporarily add fuel to the US-Israeli alliance, but it will neither bring stability nor order to the region. Rather, it will push the Middle East further into endless conflict and restrict America's next president to a mindset and a policy framework that risks making the promise of change a dream unfulfilled.

Joe The Plumber In Israel: "I think media should be abolished from, you know, reporting."

CNN's Rick Sanchez questions Joe The Plumber's journalistic credibility:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9BE0rc2aZpc&eurl[/youtube]

[via Robot Heart]

That Israeli Information Machine in Action: Overlooking the "Bloody Conflict"

There has been an exceptional amount of media fluff about the wondrous Israel information/propaganda/hasbara effort in the Gaza conflict. Yet, for all the acknowledged prowess of Tel Aviv on televisions-talkboards-YouTube-Twitter, here's a rule-of-thumb: the dead, cold reality of civilian deaths, sooner or later, will overtake your use flashy, hot new media.

Here's an example:

David Saranga, the Israeli Consul for Media and Public Affairs in New York, was quick on the Twitter this morning about an article in The Guardian of London on Israel's efforts: "Winning the Media War". Rachel Shabi notes that the coordinated hasbara effort has "got world media repeating the Israeli government's core messages practically verbatim".

So what's the problem? Well, Saranga might have done well to check the secondary headline on The Guardian piece before hitting his "Send" button:

Twitter, YouTube, blogs – Israel has proved a master of networking. Shame it's being used to promote a bloody conflict

The Israeli Invasion of Gaza: Rolling Updates (15 January)

Latest Post: Israeli Government Document Says Hamas Did Not Fire Rockets From June to November 2008

12:30 a.m. We predicted last night that it would be a momentous 24 hours. It was, but not on the diplomatic front, where Israel --- confident that the Arab world was dithering, that Egypt would not go too far in conceding to Hamas, and that the US is still writing a blank cheque --- stalled. Instead, the deadly action was military, as the world woke up to Israel's gradual achievement of "Phase 3".

The Israeli invasion of Gaza City started badly on the public-relations front, as they shelled hospitals, high-rises (including one housing media organisations), and the UN compound and set thousands of residents to flight. The advance faced limited resistance from Hamas fighters, however, and Tel Aviv got a major coup --- at home and we'll see how much abroad --- when its target assassination strategy finally worked with the slaying of Hamas officials, including former Minister of the Interior Saed Siam.

Yet all this merely brings round our question from last night: is tomorrow the day when the Israeli Government finally decides that it will moves toward a cease-fire or will it press for even better terms by squeezing the population of Gaza City, Rafah, etc. further?

Good night and peace to all.



11:45 p.m. Hamas has confirmed the death of former Interior Minister Saed Siam, killed in an Israeli airstrike with five others.

The report of the death of Hamas military leader Mahmud al-Zahar was in error, confusing two incidents. He was not at Siam's house; instead, Israeli forces surround al-Zahar's home, killing five bodyguards but failing to locate him.

10:00 p.m. Ban Ki-Moon, capping off a fantastic day for United Nations diplomacy, says that it may take a 'few more days' to work out the technical details of a Gaza ceasefire. Translation: the issue of who monitors the borders, and thus when they open, is a major sticking point.

9:05 p.m. Ministry of Defense official Amos Gilad has returned from Cairo and talking to Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, Defense Minister Ehud Barak, and Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni. I suspect that means no significant announcement until the Gilad discussions are presented to Israeli Security Cabinet on Friday.

8:45 p.m. Hamas tried to re-seize the diplomatic initiative. Its officials have told Egypt that it will agree to a year-long ceasefire if Israel opens the borders immediately and withdraws its forces in seven days.

It's a clever move, if it commands attention. There is no way that Israel will agree to opened borders without an arrangement that it likes on monitoring (which probably means some involvement/oversight by Israeli forces). It is likely to respond, with the killings of Hamas officials this evening, that the Gazan organisation is only reacting from weakness, and there is a good chance that Israeli officials would like to press their military advantage for a few more days.

So Hamas may be able to portray themselves as the party seeking peace, especially if outrage over Israeli hitting of civilian targets, such as hospitals and the UN compounds, overrides the focus on the military "success" of the targeted assassinations. For that to happen, however, it needs support from somewhere --- Arab states, the United Nations, maybe a European leader. That, however, is unlikely in the next few days unless there is a general demand, in the media and in public opinion, for a cessation of the violence.

8:05 p.m. Al Jazeera says former (not present) Hamas Interior Minister Said Siam, his brother, and son killed with three others in Israeli airstrike. It does not mention the death of Mahmoud Watfah.

7:45 p.m. Ha'aretz: Hamas military leader Mahmoud Watfah also killed in airstrike on Interior Minister's house.

7:25 p.m Well, this buys Israel some time, deflecting from the row over the shelling of the UN compound, the injuring of journalists in the attack on the Sharooq Tower, the rising civilian death toll, the tangled diplomatic talks....

Al Aqsa TV confirms the death of Hamas Interior Minister Said Siam in an Israeli airstrike.

7:05 p.m. Israel claims to have killed Hamas Interior Minister Said Siam and his brother in an attack on his house.

6:15 p.m. The report of Israeli response has come from Egyptian television and now from a senior Egyptian diplomat to Agence France Presse. Still no coverage in US or British media.

5:55 p.m. News Alert: It is being reported that Israel has given a "totally favourable response" to the Egyptian proposals for a cease-fire. This follows news that US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has told Israeli Prime Minister that the US will sign an agreement to measures to prevent the rearming of Hamas.

CNN International and Al Jazeera English, which is carrying the emergency session of the United Nations General Assembly, have yet to mention the supposed breakthrough.

5:40 p.m. Question of the Day comes from UN official Chris Gunness: ""If there were militants in our compound, why weren't we told?"

5:20 p.m. CNN's website has a summary of the near-farcical diplomatic fiddling, while Gaza burns, by Arab nations. Anas Qtiesh's commentary, "Arab Leaders Can't Come Together, Not Even into a Room", is well worth a read.

4:20 p.m. Forgive me, but here we go again: a senior Israeli officers say the UN compound was shelled, with artillery and white phosphorous, fter Israeli forces came under fire from militants. UN official John Ging has denied there was any shooting from the compound.

3:30 p.m. British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, breaking from the US, has condemned Israel attack on UN facilities "unacceptable" and called for immediate cease-fire.

3 p.m. Interesting journalistic approach from Al Jazeera: It has put a "victim's wall" listing the names and ages of the 210 children killed in the Gaza conflict that it has identified so far.

Meanwhile, Israeli spokesman Mark Regev announces that 20 journalists will be allowed into Gaza, but they must be embedded with Israeli Army "for their security". Credit to the CNN correspondent who just scoffed at this, since journalists would have to submit all their reports to the Army for approval.

2:50 p.m. Oops, here is why that "Fatah In, Hamas Out" strategy might not work. Isabel Kerchner in The New York Times:

Israel hoped that the war in Gaza would not only cripple Hamas, but eventually strengthen its secular rival, the Palestinian Authority, and even allow it to claw its way back into Gaza.

But with each day, the authority, its leader, Mahmoud Abbas, and its leading party, Fatah, seem increasingly beleaguered and marginalized, even in the Palestinian cities of the West Bank, which they control. Protesters accuse Mr. Abbas of not doing enough to stop the carnage in Gaza — indeed, his own police officers have used clubs and tear gas against those same protesters.

2:35 p.m. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad is holding a press conference, lambasting Israel and the United Nations.

2:05 p.m. We've put up a separate post on the significance of the press conference: "Fatah In, Hamas Out", but on a personal note:

In my opinion, "I've just witnessed a disgrace." If there was any hope in the diplomatic process after the Egypt-Hamas talks, it has been sabotaged by Livni's declaration of a "regime change" strategy in Gaza. And I cannot believe that a UN Secretary-General, only hours after his own people and operations were damaged --- perhaps irrevocably --- in Gaza would not only sit there and take the blows but endorse Tel Aviv's approach.

1:45 p.m. Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, following Ban Ki-Moon's statement, laid the strategy on the line for Hamas out, Fatah in:

""Gaza has been controlled by terrorist organization that doesn't fight for the aspirations of the Palestinian people. It is not part of the peace process....We  need to achieve a peace process with the pragmatic leadership, the legitimate Palestinian Government (her emphasis) and simultaneously to address terror, to fight terrorism, to continue the de-legitimisation of Hamas."

1:43 p.m. About those Israeli attacks on UN facilities and personnel this morning; Ban Ki-Moon says he "expressed strong protest and outrage" and demanded full explanation. He then had telephone talk with Israeli Defense Ehud Barak, who said attacks were "grave mistake" and assured "that extra attention would be paid to UN facilities and staff" in future.

Well, that's all right,then.

1:40 p.m. Ban Ki-Moon says he discussed humanitarian situation with Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni. He says UN working with Israel "to alleviate the crisis as much as possible": "I appreciate the Israeli Government's measures to establish a Humanitarian Operations Center and to provide the necessary humanitarian assistance."

1:30 p.m. Important development: United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon has just issued his press statement after meeting with Israeli leaders. He calls for immediate cease-fire with reopening of borders, halt to rockets and resupply to Hamas, and release of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit. And...

"Gaza is reunited with West Bank under one legitimate Palestinian Authority".

Which means the political strategy of bringing Fatah back to Gaza --- and not recognising Hamas --- continues.

1:16 p.m. Al Jazeera reports that Israeli forces have surrounded the home of Hamas co-founder Mahmud az-Zahar.

1:15 p.m. Nice symbolic touch: someone has placed two Israeli flags in front of the media reporting from the Israel-Gaza border.

1:05 p.m. Resident of Gaza City high-rise occupied by Israeli soldiers (speaking to Al Jazeera's Ayman Moyheldin): women and children fled, Israeli troops have detained the men in lower floors of the building.

12:25 p.m. UN official John Ging: UN has not suspended operations but Gaza City headquarters is now cut off: "This is a test of our humanity. It's also a test of our ability to enforce legality and just be by-standers."

Ging says Red Cross building in Gaza City has been hit by Israeli fire. (Latest info: apparently it is Red Crescent hospital building which has been struck.)

12:20 p.m. UN official Chris Gunness: Because the fire in the UN compound is from three white phosphorous shells, it cannot be "put out by conventional means."

12:15 p.m. Israel radio with doctor in Tal al-Hawa hospital: Building hit by Israeli tank shell (not bomb). Fuel tank outside hospital struck, causing large fire.

12:10 p.m. Al Jazeera: Tal al-Hawa hospital in Gaza City hit by Israel bomb with 500 people inside.

12 noon: Smoke billowing from UN aid warehouse, which is on fire after a direct hit from at least three Israeli shells.

11:37 a.m. Shourooq Tower, which house many media organisations in #Gaza, hit by Israeli shelling.

11:35 a.m. Fantastic line from Al Jazeera analyst Mouin Rabbani: "There's a growing feeling in the region that, while Muslims pray towards Mecca, some of their leaders are in fact praying in the direction of the White House."

11:20 a.m. Orwell strikes: As it shells Gaza City and Rafah and escalates ground operations, Israel announces a four-hour "humanitarian" respite for today, even though UN says any aid delivery is impossible.

11:15 a.m. Putting reports together on fighting in Tal al-Hawa: Israeli tanks shelled three high-rise buildings before Israeli soldiers occupied them. Unclear whether residents of buildings fled before or after the tank fire.

11:01 a.m. CNN follows Al Jazeera reports of "main UN aid compound" in Gaza hit by Israeli fire. UN official John Ging says compound hit by artillery and white phosphorous, injuring three UN workers.

11:00 a.m. Thirteen rockets fired this morning into southern Israel.

10:55 a.m. Projection: Israeli forces are making current advance into parts of Gaza City to pursue diplomatic negotiations from a "position of strength".

10:50 a.m. Live on Al Jazeera: Intensive Israeli attack in Tal al-Hawa, in the southern part of Gaza City, with Israeli soldiers taking up positions in high-rise buildings. Reports of similar operations in eastern Gaza City. Thousands of resident fleeing.

This is a significant escalation in operations: in recent days, Israeli forces have moved forward at night, not during the day.

10:45 a.m. Juan Cole, excellent as always, offers an incisive examination of the humanitarian situation to consider whether Israel is a "rogue state".

10:30 a.m. In case you missed it: Israel turned back an aid boat carrying doctors, medical supplies, and journalists. The Israeli naval force surrounded the boat and threatened to fire unless it returned to Cyprus.

9:45 a.m. Further to our 9 a.m. update "Decision Day?": The Israeli shift in position, sending officials to Cairo and Washington for talks, follows a mini-climbdown by Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, who ended his boycott of Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and Defense Minister Ehud Barak and met them yesterday.

9:30 a.m. Split amongst Arab States: Following our update yesterday on Saudi Arabia proposing a meeting of the Gulf Cooperation Council as an alternative to an Arab League emergency meeting, Egypt is suggesting a meeting on Sunday just before an Arab economic summit in Kuwait.

At least in the short term, two Arab coalitions have emerged: one led by Egypt and Saudi Arabia, who are playing for time because of their dislike of Hamas, and one led by Syria (supported by non-Arab countries such as Iran and Turkey), who want a more assertive political intervention. Whether this has long-term significance will be an important issue, even after the supposed end of hostilities in Gaza.

9:15 a.m. Crushing Hamas? A revealing story, if you can get under the surface, on BBC radio's Today programme (at 0715). An Israeli military spokesman says that about 300 Hamas fighters have died since the Israeli ground invasion, in addition to a "few hundred" killed in the first week of the aerial assault.

The Israeli figure, however, includes Gazan policemen, an estimated 170 of whom have died. Removing that number, the outcome is that Israel after three weeks has killed at most 430 Hamas fighters. That is out of a (conservatively) estimated Hamas force of 15,000.

9:01 a.m. United Nations official Chris Gunness says that UN personnel cannot get to warehouses to distribute aid because of "red-hot shrapnel" lying around the sites.

9 a.m. Despite the diplomatic moves, Israel not only continued its bombardment overnight but also "moved into crowded parts" of Gaza City. A mosque was amongst the targets hit, while a targeted assassination attempt hit the home of a Hamas official, missing him but killing three others.

The Gazan death toll is now 1033 --- more than a third are children. Al Jazeera's Ayman Moyheldin reports that more than 80,000 Gazans have been displaced.

Morning Update (9 a.m. Israel/Gaza time): Decision Day? Three days late, Israel is sending Ministry of Defense official Amos Gilad to Cairo. The BBC is reporting that Tel Aviv is also sending a senior Foreign Ministry official to the US. Both developments indicate that the Israeli Government is ready to enter negotiations on the terms of a possible cease-fire.

This follows the news on Wednesday that Hamas has put forward its response to Egyptian proposals in an attempt to find a settlement. That said, there are still huge sticking points. Hamas is demanding both that Israel end the blockade and that it have no personnel in the force monitoring the borders. Israel will insist not only on an end to rocket fire but will try and retain the right to strike Gaza if even one launch is made.

And this is only in the short-term, of course. The wider issue is a two-fold question of recognition: does Hamas recognise Israel as a state? And does Israel recognise Hamas as the legitimate political leadership of Gaza?

Gaza: Israeli Government Document Says Hamas Did Not Fire Rockets From June to November 2008

UPDATE: I have checked the English-language website of the Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center. I cannot find the specific Government briefing cited by Channel 4, but the ITIC's reports --- to be precise --- indicate few rocket attacks between the cease-fire on 19 June and 4 November (what it calls the "lull"). These are the key lines in the update of 16 November: "Another important facet of the recent escalation is that for the first time, there is direct Hamas involvement in the rocket and mortar shell fire....At the same time, Hamas heads and spokesmen publicly stated that their intention was not to end the lull arrangement but to provide “an equal response” to what they call the “Israeli violations."

I've just heard once more, this time from Jerusalem Post editor David Horowitz on CNN, that the catalyst for the current conflict in Gaza was the firing of rockets into southern Israel by Hamas.

We've already out the official release from the Israeli Government that undermines this assertion: only 11 rockets were fired between July and October 2008, with the escalation taking place after an Israeli raid killing six Hamas activists on 4 November. Channel 4 in Britain has gone even farther, however, with an Israeli Government that says Hamas fired no rockets between June and November 2008.



Questioning former Israeli Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom, who claimed "even during the cease-fire, Hamas was firing rockets on a daily basis", Channel 4's anchorwoman pulled out an Israeli Government briefing: "Hamas was careful to maintain the cease-fire. Rockets were fired, but they were from splinter terrorist organisations." Although Shalom insisted on sticking to his script of Hamas targeting "women and children", the anchorwoman did not concede:

ANCHORWOMAN: This document is published by the Intelligence and Terrorist Information Center at the Israel Intelligence and Heritage Commemoration Center and they say Hamas maintained the cease-fire.

SHALOM: It's not the Government.

ANCHORWOMAN: But it's given to foreign journalists by the Government as a statement of the facts.

SHALOM: Listen, you like to hear the facts or you like to invent something?....My mother lives there. I know if they were firing or not.

And there was still one more twist. Israeli spokesman Mark Regev confirmed that Channel 4's document was genuine. "Between June and November 2008, only 20 rockets were fired, "and these were fired by organisations other than Hamas".