Gaza: It's Fatah In, Hamas Out, and No Cease-fire for Now

Earlier I blogged with updates (between 1:30 and 1:45 p.m.) on the press conference of UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon and Israeli Foreign Tzipi Livni, but what has just occurred deserves a separate post.

Livni's 8-minute statement said almost nothing about the cease-fire. Instead, from the start, she demanded the "de-legitimisation" of Hamas as a terrorist organisation and a restoration of the "peace process" with "the legitimate Palestinian Government". And Ban Ki-Moon, preceding Livni, opened the door to the strategy: “Gaza is reunited with West Bank under one legitimate Palestinian Authority”.

In 15 minutes, the current diplomatic process has been reduced to this: there will only be a cease-fire if Hamas humiliates itself with an acceptance of a string of Israeli conditions. I see no way that Israel can climb down from Livni's statement, without discrediting itself before its own people, and process with any meaningful negotiation of the Egyptian proposals.

Instead, Israel and the US hope that a humiliation of Hamas will lead to its overthrow, preferably by its own outraged people. And, from what I've just seen, Ban Ki-Moon --- whose own facilities have been damaged, whose personnel have been injured, and whose organisation has been shattered this morning by Israeli military action --- is happy to go along.

The Israeli Invasion of Gaza: Rolling Updates (14 Jan --- Evening)

Later Updates: The Israeli Invasion of Gaza (15 January)
Earlier Updates: The Israeli Invasion of Gaza (14 January)

1 a.m. Israeli shell hits car carrying senior UN officials, wounding driver.

12:45 a.m. Clarification on the state of play over the Cairo proposals. Hamas says it has presented a "detailed vision" on implementation of a cease-fire, which Egypt will now relay to Israel. Hamas' conditions include guarantees that Israel will lift the blockade on Gaza, but significantly Hamas is prepared to accept European and Turkish monitors of Gaza border "along with the Palestinian Authority's security forces and those of the government in Gaza". (In other words, Palestinian Authority can have a role as long as there are no Israeli monitors.)

Hamas sources say that if Israel accepts the Egyptian proposals, "We will be ready to start (the ceasefire) immediately."



12:30 a.m. Our colleagues at Alive in Gaza have posted a second audio dispatch from Gaza City by photojournalist Sameh Habeeb.

12 midnight: Saudi Arabia has called for an emergency summit of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. This is not as much a diplomatic initiative as a blocking move, forestalling calls for a full Arab League summit.

Evening update (11:30 p.m. Israel/Gaza time): The diplomatic flutter of a possible Hamas agreement to Egyptian proposals appears to have been premature, as "news" has reverted back to a summary of United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon's trip to the Middle East.

The near-irrelevance of that mission has been highlighted by the news that, after the talks in Egypt today, Ban will visit Israel, Jordan, and Syria...but not Hamas. So the facade of negotiations, in which one side can only be approached by Cairo, continues.

Gazan death toll is now about 1017 with almost 5000 injured. Al Jazeera correspondent Ayman Moyheldin says that, while fewer Gazans killed on Wednesday, residents faced "complete fear and terror....For those who venture out [for food] ... they know that anytime they leave their house it could be the last time."

Israeli death toll is 13, of whom 10 are soldiers.

The Israeli Invasion of Gaza: Rolling Updates (14 January)

Latest Post: Gaza Diaries --- Dying and Awaiting Death
Latest Post: Alive in Gaza Audio and Written Blogs --- "We Do Not Know What Tomorrow is Holding for Us"
Earlier Updates: The Israeli Invasion of Gaza (13 January --- Evening)

7:20 p.m. Sky News in Britain is claiming that Hamas has agreed "in principle" to Egyptian proposals. Unclear, however, if Sky report is based on an earlier announcement by Spanish Foreign Ministry, now retracted. Hamas spokesman Osama Hamdan said earlier to Al Jazeera that "points of difference" remained over the Egyptian proposals, while Hamas spokesman in Syria said agreement had been reached.

More when we get out of a bloggers' gathering in Birmingham.

6:30 p.m. The long-term effect of the Israeli invasion? From today's Washington Post:

A cornerstone of Israel's strategy in Gaza is to crush Hamas's will to fight, especially its determination to fire rockets into southern Israel. But in interviews here with wounded supporters of the Islamist militia, Israel's assaults appear to be breeding more recruits and more popular support for Hamas.

Men who say they have never fought before or were not Hamas loyalists now vow to join the struggle against Israel when they return to Gaza. They include policemen and other professionals who form part of the backbone of Gazan society.

6:05 p.m. While awaiting developments, I found the opening to this report in The New York Times gets to the heart of the political/military matter:

Despite heavy air and ground assaults, Israel has yet to cripple the military wing of Hamas or destroy the group’s ability to launch rockets, Israeli intelligence officials said on Tuesday, suggesting that Israel’s main goals in the conflict remain unfulfilled even after 18 days of war.

The comments reflected a view among some Israeli officials that any lasting solution to the conflict would require either a breakthrough diplomatic accord that heavily restricts Hamas’s military abilities or a deeper ground assault into urban areas of Gaza. 

5:30 p.m. We've just posted an update on two Gaza accounts, the words of a four-year-old girl in a hospital and the extraordinary "Gaza Diary" of Safa Joudeh.



5 p.m. The latest update from the United Nations Humanitarian Coordinator, current to 5 p.m. yesterday:

Civilians, notably children who form 56 percent of Gaza’s population, are bearing the brunt of the violence. As one of the most densely populated places in the world, more civilians risk being killed or injured if the conflict continues. The parties to conflict must respect the norms of International Humanitarian Law (IHL), in particular the principles of distinction and proportionality.

4:45 p.m. The Gazan death toll, according to medical services, has passed 1000. Beyond the morbid symbolism of passing that mark, a colleague at lunch has offered the following: given the Gaza population of 1.5 million, this is the equivalent in US of 200,000 dead.

3 p.m. So here's the statement from Ban Ki-Moon in Cairo:

I repeat my call for an immediate and durable cease-fire. I've been urging in the strongest of possible terms all sides must stop fighting now. We don't have any time to lose.

A statement which, I fear, is spitting into the wind: no evidence of any advance from Ban's talks with the Egyptians.

Afternoon update (2 p.m. Israel/Gaza time): No significant word from Ban Ki-Moon's talks in Cairo. Periodic gunfire and bombings in Gaza City.

Peripheral news: a chap named Osama bin Laden has issued a statement on Gaza, calling for "jihad".

11:05 a.m. Juan Cole considers one of the important effects of the conflict, a souring of relations between Turkey and Israel.

11 a.m. Gazan death toll now 978 with more than 4500 wounded.

10:45 a.m. Huge development which effectively means no advance in the diplomatic process.

Ha'aretz reports on the split in the Israeli Cabinet: Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, who wants to press ahead with military operations, is refusing to meet with Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and Defense Minister Ehud Barak, both of whom support a cease-fire: "On Wednesday, he will not convene the political-security cabinet to discuss whether the operations should go on."

10:40 a.m. Watching an extraordinary "Inside Story" from Al Jazeeera on protests and the Gaza conflict. Joshua Muravchik of the American Enterprise Institute is close to screaming at the other participants and making statements such as "The Hamas leadership is in a bunker underneath al Shifa hospital" (hmmm.....), "There was not a daysince the Israeli withdrawal from Gaza that went by without a Hamas rocket fired into Israel" (false --- for example, official Israeli figures show only one rocket fired into Israel in July 2008) and "There was no blockade" (I leave that one up to you).

It's simple for Muravchik: Israel and Hamas are "morally unequal".

10:25 a.m.  Global Voices has just posted the heart-felt but disturbing reflections of a Tel Aviv construction worker who worked alongside six Gazans for 18 months in 1996-97. Despite the passage of time, it is well worth a read:

I and most other non-Gazans would break down after a week of such a schedule, but our Gazans lived like this for decades. Up until the day the [Gaza Strip] was shut down once and for all, and the life of people there grew even worse. […] Having seen all this, I understood even then that it was impossible to defeat these people or break them down. They can either be eliminated, or we can learn to live together with them. There are no other options.

(Hat tip to Lisa Goldman.)

10 a.m. This from The Independent of London:

At least three Palestinians in Gaza were shot dead yesterday after Israeli soldiers fired on a group of residents leaving their homes on orders from the military and waving white flags, according to testimony taken by the Israeli human rights group B'Tselem. The testimony was rejected by the military after what it said was a preliminary investigation.

9:50 a.m. Our colleagues at "Alive in Gaza" have posted their first audio despatch, from photojournalist Sameh Habeeb in Gaza City.

Morning update (9:30 a.m. Israel/Gaza time): The overnight military pattern continued. Israeli airstrikes on more than 60 targets, as well as naval and land bombardment. Fighting as Israeli forces further secured their positions around Gazan cities, while in southern Gaza, Israeli planes used bunker-busting bombs on tunnels near Rafah.

The headline development is on the other side of Israel. Three rockets from Lebanon, in the second launch in recent days, landed in northern Israel. The "National Front" has claimed responsibility,but worryingly CNN is already putting out the line that "nothing happens without the wink and nod of Hezbollah".

In what is likely to be a depressing diplomatic sideshow, United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon visits the region today, seeing Egyptian and Arab League leaders on Wednesday and Israeli leaders on Thursday. Without visible support from another international entity, such as the United States or the European Union, or a parallel effort by the Arab League, I am afraid the trip will be publicity without substance (although if Ban can use the trip to get some movement on the humanitarian front, it may not be without value).

Meanwhile, the United Nations General Assembly will convene, offering its own symbolism of a denunciation of Tel Aviv. The President of the General Assembly, Miguel d'Escoto Brockmann. has condemned the Israeli attacks as "genocide" against the Palestinian people.

The Israeli Invasion of Gaza: Rolling Updates (13 Jan - Evening)

Latest post: Gaza --- The Unnecessary War
Latest Post: Gaza --- More Tasteful Video Games
Earlier updates: The Israeli Invasion of Gaza (13 January)

10:50 a.m. I am afraid that this conflict has settled into a deadly pattern. Israeli forces move forward overnight, trying to take out Hamas positions by air, sea, and land bombardment and then settle in position --- as the bombardment continues --- during the day. Because there are few broadcast correspondents in Gaza, there is not-so-dramatic footage (at least from the standard narrative of war) while the best stations try to cover the humanitarian story.

Meanwhile, the diplomatic dance is a very slow waltz. Israel is clearly in a stationary position, awaiting any Egyptian pressure on Hamas to work. But Hamas, as far as I can tell, isn't ready to make concessions.

As Kurt Vonnegut would say, so it goes.... Goodnight, thank you, and peace to all.



12:20 a.m. The Ramattan live feed from Gaza City is still running via CNN.

11:20 p.m. Alive in Gaza has posted another despatch, from Muhammad al Ja'bawi: "I cannot find the words to describe what is going on now in Gaza." We've reprinted in full as a separate blog.

9:25 p.m. A pleasure to see Professor Avi Shlaim, one of the best historians on the Middle Eastern conflict, on Britain's Channel 4 this evening. His thoughts, on Gaza and the Israel-Palestine issue, were perceptive if provocative. Hopefully the clip will be available later. In the meantime, his article in last Wednesday's Guardian of London, "How Israel Brought Gaza to the Brink of Humanitarian Crisis", is well worth a read.

8:20 p.m. Al Jazeera has just posted an article on the testimony of Secretary of State-elect Hillary Clinton at her confirmation hearings today. Clinton vowed "every effort" to advance a peace settlement between Israelis and Palestinians, but she ruled out any negotiations with Hamas unless it recognised Israel and renounced violence.

Consider that carefully. What Clinton has just said is that, before there can be any talks on a cease-fire in the current conflict, Hamas must unilaterally recognise Tel Aviv and declare an end to rocket attacks. Israel, on the other hand, has to make no such concessions regarding its recognition of Hamas or its use of military force.

7:40 p.m. Israel/Gaza time: CNN and Al Jazeera still focusing on Israeli tanks around Gaza City.

But what is the news out of the talks in Cairo? No smoke signals from the discussions between Egypt and Hamas. Instead, Egyptian officials moved quickly on Tuesday to block a Qatari request for an emergency summit of Arab nations on Gaza.

6:08 p.m. Far from Gaza: at her confirmation hearings in Washington, Secretary of State-elect Hillary Clinton looks totally bored, thinks, "Why, oh why am I not President?"

6:02 p.m. Gazans fleeing Israeli bombardment around Rafah unable to find room in shelters. Gazan death toll now 971.

6 p.m. This clue, both to the qualified optimism of the Israeli leadership and to its indecision whether to press the fight into the cities, from the Los Angeles Times:

The military power of Hamas has been weakened and its political leadership is divided over plans for a possible ceasefire, but an Israeli intelligence official said today that the radical group remains formidable, with 15,000 fighters and a sophisticated arsenal of rockets and anti-tank weapons and tunnels.

Gaza: The Unnecessary War

On our little-brother website, The State of the United States, Ryan Lucas has posted an appeal "to stop this pointless fight....Make Gaza better before things get to the point where it can never get better." His point is a simple but powerful one;

The war in Gaza is simply an unnecessary war made by people who aren't willing to co-operate and act like adults, but are behaving instead like little children, who are fighting over a toy.