Rolling Updates on the Israeli Invasion of Gaza (7 January)

Later Story: Follow-Up: That State Department Twitter-Diplomacy….Gives the Game Away?
Later Story: Inconvenient (Rocket) Facts: Israel Still Can't Get It Right
Later Story: Rice to UN: US Seeks Regime Change in Gaza
Later Story: Inconvenient (Rocket) Facts: Israel Gets Caught Out by the BBC


12:45 p.m. Relatively quiet on both military and diplomatic fronts --- not expecting much out of any United Nations discussions --- so we're off for some downtime.

Tomorrow should offer some clues on the political direction of the conflict. With Hamas as well as the Palestinian Authority and Israel going to Cairo for negotiations, there may be some indication as to whether Tel Aviv and Washington will accept a settlement that leaves Hamas in control of Gaza or whether they try to isolate the organisation.

Meanwhile, on the military front, we may get some indication --- given the reports of Israeli moblisation around Rafah and warnings to residents --- of whether Tel Aviv is going to take the ground offensive into the cities.

11:30 p.m. Gazan medical sources say 700 Gazans killed in conflict, 219 are children and 89 are women. More than 3000 wounded: 46 percent are women and children.

11:25 p.m. Jabaliya Doubled: The Daily Telegraph of London is reporting the discovery in Zeitoun by a paramedic of between 60 and 70 bodies of the al Samouni clan (initial reports had put the death toll at 13), killed by Israeli shelling.



About 15 members of the clan were injured. Eight were left behind when Israeli troops began firing on ambulances.

So far, Israel has made no claim that there was Hamas members firing mortars from the shelled house.

10:50 p.m. A summary of Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah's speech on the Gaza situation --- "The Scheme is to Give West Bank to Jordan, Gaza to Egypt" --- is now posted in English on the Internet.

10:45 p.m. Took a break to post on today's How Not to Spin Information story: the Israeli consulate in New York, trying to prove Hamas was responsible for breaking the cease-fire, actually makes the case that the Gazan organisation was observing it.

8:45 p.m. Apologies --- missed this earlier. Israeli Cabinet postpones votes on expansion of ground offensive

8:40 p.m. Arab fightback? Representatives of Arab League at United Nations reject US-backed initiative for non-binding statement by President of Security Council and urge binding Security Council resolution for immediate cease-fire. Al Jazeera speculates this is because of growing "embarrassment" over Arab passivity in face of Mubarak-Sarkozy process.

8:30 p.m. Israeli military preparing for entry into Rafah in southern Gaza? Reports of leaflets being dropped on residents warning them to evacuate by 8 a.m. Gaza time

8 p.m. On CNN, French Foreign Ministry spokesman tries to reconcile different stories: Israel has welcomed "process" and "approach" of Mubarak-Sarkozy proposal. Tel Aviv is sending senior advisor to Minister of Defense Ehud Barak to Cairo tomorrow.

Spokesman adds that discussions are taking place with Hamas via Egypt and Syria. On the Palestinian Authority-Hamas issue, he talks of "Palestinian reconciliation".

6:15 p.m. Retractions: French President Sarkozy's office acknowledges that Israel has not accepted the Mubarak-Sarkozy proposal while Israeli military says three-hour "respite" --- to take place every other day ---does apply to all of Gaza, not just Gaza City

5:25 p.m. Important development: Ahmed Youssef, political advisor to Hamas leader Ismail Haniya, tells Al Jazeera there are "good elements" in Mubarak-Sarkozy proposal and hopes for clarification of provisions in next 48 hours. Youssef adds that he hopes negotiation of Mubarak-Sarkozy will be in conjunction with movement in United Nations towards a resolution.

Youssef says the "by-product" of rockets will end when the Israeli occupation is terminated, indicating Hamas will not accept a cease-fire which does not mention Tel Aviv's aggression: "As long as the occupation is there, we have to defend ourselves....When we have full control of our destiny....there will be no firing of rockets."

5:20 p.m. Thomas Friedman carries the media flag for Israel. His latest column in The New York Times, "The Mideast's Ground Zero", is being distributed via Twitter by the Israeli Consulate in New York. And no wonder, six years after Friedman marched into war with Iraq, he's still got an Axis of Evil to grind:

No doubt, Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran are hoping that they can use the Gaza conflict to turn Obama into Bush. They know Barack Hussein Obama must be (am)Bushed — to keep America and its Arab allies on the defensive. Obama has to keep his eye on the prize. His goal — America’s goal — has to be a settlement in Gaza that eliminates the threat of Hamas rockets and opens Gaza economically to the world, under credible international supervision.

5:15 p.m. Confusion over the Mubarak-Sarkozy proposal and possible embarrassment for the French President. France had announced Israel's acceptance of the limited cease-fire, but Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert says that proposal is still being studied.

5 p.m. Two hours into the three-hour respite but Al Jazeera says there are reports of fresh fighting in Gaza City. Seven Israeli airstrikes, mainly in northeast Gaza.

The respite has allowed paramedics to get to some areas of Gaza for first time.

4:20 p.m. Israel "clarifies" the three-hour respite: says it applies only to Gaza City

3:45 p.m. A break from Gaza coverage to more important issues: CNN International is running an in-depth investigation of Oprah Winfrey's weight

3:20 p.m. Osama Hamdan of Hamas says organisation is considering Mubarak-Sarkozy proposal along with "other initiatives",  maintains cautious line --- "If we criticise Egypt, it does not mean we cannot discuss with Egypt"

3:12 p.m. Hamas officials say they are considering the Mubarak-Sarkozy proposal.

3:10 p.m. French officials say both Israel and Palestinian Authority have accepted the Mubarak-Sarkozy proposal for a limited cease-fire and talks in Cairo.

3:05 p.m. Respite, after firing from both sides in opening minutes, reported to be "generally holding". At least 683 Gazans killed since start of conflict.

2:20 p.m. Report of "tens of thousands" of mourners at funerals of the victims of Jabaliya school/shelter bombing.

UN officials "99.9 percent certain" that there were no militants in the shelter.

2:00 p.m. An  hour after the "respite" began, shelling resumes north of Gaza City, although more civilians are on the streets in the centre of the city. Machine gun fire near Beit Lahoun.

1:35 p.m. Israeli Defense Forces say they have suspended operations for three hours. Hamas says it will match this by suspending firing of rockets.

1:10 p.m. Israeli airstrikes kill four people outside a  mosque in Gaza City and two people in the Zeitoun district. Explosions reported in Jabaliya and Beit Lahiya.



12:55 p.m. London-based Arabic-language newspaper al-Quds al-Arabi reports that officers of US Army Engineering Corps have been stationed at Rafah to unearth smugglers' tunnels --- unclear whether they are now on Egyptian or Gazan side or border

12:45 p.m. Israel seizes the media initiative, at least with CNN: its headline story is of Tel Aviv's offer of a "short respite" with the three-hour pause in bombing each day, while the Jabiliya deaths are at the foot of the story (and noted with "The Israeli military said Hamas militants were firing mortars from the school").

11:55 a.m. No humanitarian bombing pause yet: Al Jazeera reports heavy Israeli bombing around city of Rafah on Egypt-Gaza border.

11:34 a.m. Dan Gillerman, the former Israeli Ambassador to the UN and the coordinator of Israel's information operations, tells Al Jazeera that the deaths in the Jabaliya bombing are "horrible tragedy" but whereas each death is "a cause for sadness" for Israel, each is "a cause for celebration" for Hamas.

Gillerman refuses to address the question of whether Israel violated international law with the shelling of the school/shelter. John Ging, United Nations Relief and Works Agency official, repeats that the GPS coordinates of the school/shelter were given to Israeli forces, and calls for a "full investigation".

11:10 a.m. Israeli Cabinet currently discussing military operations, including possible expansion of ground offensive with mobilisation of tens of thousands of reservists. Israeli forces reported to be in "holding pattern" around Gazan cities.

11 a.m. Israel announces, for the "humanitarian corridor", that it will halt military attacks for three hours each day. Al Jazeera reports Gazan reaction: "What about the other 21 hours a day?"

10:20 a.m. I have known and learned for 20 years from Professor Avi Shlaim, one of Britain's foremost historians on the Middle East. In today's Guardian of London, he has an opinion piece, "How Israel Brought Gaza to the Brink of Humanitarian Catastrophe", offering the historical context to the current crisis:

This brief review of Israel's record over the past four decades makes it difficult to resist the conclusion that it has become a rogue state with "an utterly unscrupulous set of leaders". A rogue state habitually violates international law, possesses weapons of mass destruction and practises terrorism - the use of violence against civilians for political purposes. Israel fulfils all of these three criteria; the cap fits and it must wear it. Israel's real aim is not peaceful coexistence with its Palestinian neighbours but military domination.

9:40 a.m. The United Nations Humanitarian Coordinator has released a situation report, current to 6 p.m. on 6 January, detailing casualties and damages from Israeli bombing and shelling. It also sets out the status of medical services and shelter and the provision of food, fuel, water, and electricity.

9:15 a.m. Ayman al-Zawahiri, the deputy chief of Al Qa'eda, issued a statement calling the Gaza conflict a "gift" from President-elect Barack Obama with "that traitor" Hosni Mubarak as the main partner.

Frankly, I consider this a sign of the relative weakness and peripheral place of Al Qa'eda, except to a small group of core activists, not only in Gaza but in international affairs. Far more important, as Juan Cole has noted, is the impact upon local "insurgents" in places such as Afghanistan, as they use the wider policies of countries like the US to mobilise their supporters.

9:05 a.m. Other success of Mubarak-Sarkozy proposal is pushing the specific incident of the shelling of Jabaliya school/shelter, which killed at least 43 and wounded at least 100 Gazans, and the general humanitarian issue to the background. Al Jazeera is leading with the Jabiliya killings but other news services have put it in the background.

The Israeli proposal for a "humanitarian corridor" appears to be a public-relations success, at least for the moment. And, contrary to my opinion yesterday, it seems that Jabaliya will not be the successor to Qana (Lebanon) 2006, when dozens of civilian deaths in a single incident helped force an end to military operations.

Jabaliya was one of three schools/shelters struck yesterday. More than 660 Gazans have now died.

9 a.m. Lead development is the Mubarak-Sarkozy proposal for immediate cease-fire and meetings in Cairo between Israel and Palestinian "factions"

There is still lack of clarity on proposals such as arrangements for border security and when and to what extent blockade would be lifted. Perhaps most important, no confirmation on whether Hamas would be invited to negotiations. In fact, there is not even agreement on the cease-fire. United States is still holding out against any cessation of military operations.

However, immediate "success" of the proposal is to block any UN resolution on the crisis. Initiative is now clearly with France, Egypt as the Arab "leader", and --- behind them --- the US and European countries. If Israel and the Palestinian Authority play their parts,, then this could be an ambitious move for a "grand design" on Gaza. This would include isolating and possibly overthrowing Hamas.

Rolling Updates on the Israeli Invasion of Gaza (6 January --- Evening)

Later Updates on the Israeli Invasion of Gaza (7 January)
Earlier Updates on the Israeli Invasion of Gaza (6 January)

2:20 a.m. That's it for a while. Thanks to all who checked in with us on a turbulent day. I hesitate to think about tomorrow....

2:15 a.m. French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner is pushing the "Mubarak plan" for "immediate cease-fire for a limited period" for humanitarian aid deliveries and Egyptian invitation to Israel and "Palestinian factions/authorities" to talks on border security and blockade.

But....Kouchner sidesteps questions of whether Europeans will deal with Hamas by repeating this is an "Egyptian proposal". Yeah, right --- that's why Nicolas Sarkozy was hopping from Jerusalem to Ramallah to Damascus to Cairo before the proposal appear.

And...Kouchner makes clear that this proposal is not alongside UN Security Council resolution but instead of one. Arab journalists (and I suspect a lot of Arab people outside Governments) are not impressed.

2 a.m. Media reporting Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas's "impassioned plea" to the UN Security Council for "an urgent intervention by the Security Council to...deter the aggressor". Hmm.... Forgive my scepticism, but in light of today's manoeuvres, some cease-fires are more equal than others: what are the political objectives of this one?

Meanwhile, Israel is scrambling to regard publicity advantage (or at least a shred of respectability) by opening a "humanitarian corridor". Israeli spokespersons are still insisting that the Jabaliya school/shelter struck by Israeli tank fire, killing 40 Gazans, was being used by Hamas militants as a base for operations.

1:30 a.m. CNN missed the significance in Rice's statement --- totally missed it. Their UN correspondent, Richard Roth, is wittering on without any reference to the Secretary of State's call for restoration of Palestinian Authority in Gaza.

1:22 a.m. RICE CALLS FOR LEGAL COUP IN GAZA


Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice begins speech at UN Security Council. She's very much on-message: basic problem is "ongoing attacks against Israel" (which followed Hamas' "illegal coup" in Gaza), so have to have "sustainable and durable" cease-fire for "true calm" and not "return to status quo ante".

Rice does throw in the concession of opening border crossings on lines of 2005 agreement, but the basics of this are control of tunnels and cut-off of arms into Gaza.

Then the killer phrase: this is to restore Palestinian Authority's "legitimate control" of Gaza.

Got it? Rice has in fact inverted history and current events: she has turned Hamas' electoral victory in Gaza in 2006 into an "illegal coup" to justify a "legal coup" by Fatah/Palestinian Authority, under cover of Israeli military operations, in January 2009.



1:10 a.m. UN Security Council meeting on possible resolution ongoing.

Al-Jazeera correspondent notes that it is serving  the interests of a number of UNSC meetings to delay acting: "It seems there is a lot of dragging of feet....Some people are wondering if there is Arab complicity here" in not pressing for immediate cease-fire

11:50 p.m. Here we go: Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, following his meeting with French President Nicolas Sarkozy, has proposed "an immediate ceasefire between Israel and the Palestinians in Gaza, to be followed by talks on long-term arrangements including an end to the blockade of Gaza".

This is only a first, tentative step. There is nothing in the proposal about security arrangements to monitor borders and the import of arms and no statement on the role Hamas would play in negotiations.

The next move will come from Tel Aviv: Sarkozy said Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert "will react soon" to the Mubarak proposal. This will probably include Israeli acceptance of talks with Egypt on border security.

11:09 p.m. French President Nicolas Sarkozy reads out Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's role in the diplomatic play: Cairo invites Israel "without delay" to discuss Egypt-Gaza border security

11:05 p.m. Al Jazeera: Danish  Foreign Ministry has summoned the Israeli Ambassador to explain the bombing of three mobile clinics run by a Danish charity in Gaza

10:55 p.m. Forgive me for abandoning objectivity but Israeli authorities best produce some proof of their charges of Hamas using the Jabaliya UN school/shelter as a base for military operations. If they don't, their lying to cover up responsibility for civilian deaths --- which has happened in the past --- should be held up as an abandonment of their supposed "moral clarity".

The statement from the Israeli Consulate in New York:

These initial investigations indicate that Hamas used the UNRWA school to fire at IDF forces, indicating once again that Hamas is more than willing to sacrifice Gaza citizens to promote terrorism. International law recognizes that the presence of civilians in an area of conflict does not delegitimize a military target. Israel and the IDF will continue to abide by these laws and to make every effort to avoid harming civilians in conducting further operations. We urge the international community to strongly condemn Hamas’s cynical exploitation of its citizens and firing of rockets, which remain the most effective way to ensure peace for Gazans and Israelis alike.

9:50 p.m. Obama to Gazan population --- Can you wait another two weeks?

After Jan. 20 I'm going to have plenty to say about the issue.

9: 40 p.m. Israeli Defense Forces statement on shelling of Jabaliya school:

A number of mortar shells were fired at IDF forces from within the Jabalya school. In response to the incoming enemy fire, the forces returned mortar fire to the source. This is not the first time that Hamas has fired mortars and rockets from schools, in such a way deliberately using civilians as human shields in their acts of terror against Israel.

Flashback to the Israeli bombing of Qana in July 2006:

One Israeli military official raised the possibility that the building collapsed hours after the strike and that munitions had been stored in it.

9:35 p.m. Washington and European leaders are synchronising their statements: in last few hours: White House spokeswoman Dana Perino, German chancellor Angela Merkel, and British Prime Minister Gordon Brown have all called for a cease-fire based on closure of tunnels and cut-off of supply of arms to Hamas. The possible concession to Hamas is an arrangement for opening of border crossings.

9:10 p.m. A Gazan to an Israeli friend, quoted in Ha'aretz:

They're bombing us from the sea and from the east, they're bombing us from the air. When the telephone works, people tell us about relatives or friends who were killed. My wife cries all the time. At night she hugs the children and cries. It's cold and the windows are open; there's fire and smoke in open areas; at home there's no water, no electricity, no heating gas. And you [the Israelis] say there's no humanitarian crisis in Gaza. Tell me, are you normal?

8:55 p.m. White House spokeswoman Dana Perino on the Jabaliya school bombing: "We should not jump to conclusions on who is responsible."

Al Jazeera's Rob Reynolds: "The world's superpower is playing dumb on this."

8:40 p.m. 34 rockets fired into southern Israel today.

8:30 p.m. Excellent Timing Award. An Israeli blogging collective is circulating the quote from Golda Meir, Prime Minister of Israel from 1969 to 1974:

We can forgive the Arabs for killing our children. We cannot forgive them for forcing us to kill their children.

8:25 p.m. Al Jazeera is showing a guided tour of Al Shi'fa hospital by Dr Erik Fosse, one of the two Norwegian physicians who has brought the medical crisis to international prominence

8:10 p.m. Obama speaks! Says he is "deeply concerned" about the civilian casualties in Gaza....

8 p.m. Qana 2006 --- Jabiliya 2009?

Arguably it was the Israeli bombing of Qana and the killing of 28 civilians, or more specifically the international reaction to the horror of the incident,  that forced Tel Aviv to call a halt to its military operations 2 1/2 years ago. The building  response to the incident this afternoon, in which 40 Gazans died at a UN shelter/school, could be the symbolic ringing of time on Israel's current military mission. Every news organisation is headlining the bombing, and BBC Radio has just spent several hard-hitting minutes on the incident.

5:50 p.m. Nicolas Sarkozy to reporters in Lebanon, before heading to Egypt:

I'm convinced that there are solutions. We are not far from that. What is needed is simply for one of the players to start for things to go in the right direction.

5:25 p.m. More evidence that we're on the mark about a "grand design" for regime change, removing Hamas and bringing in the Palestinian Authority?

The Israeli Consulate has just distributed (and endorsed?) today's column by Bret Stephens in The Wall Street Journal:

Israel also has much to gain by avoiding a frontal assault on Gaza's urban areas in favor of the snatch-and-grab operations that have effectively suppressed Hamas's terrorist infrastructure in the West Bank. A long-term policy aimed squarely at killing or capturing Hamas's leaders, destroying arms caches and rocket factories, and cutting off supply and escape routes will not by itself destroy the group. But it can drive it out of government and cripple its ability to function as a fighting force. And this, in turn, could mean the return of Fatah, the closest thing Gaza has to a "legitimate" government.

5:15 p.m. CNN reports UN protest of Israeli attack on UN-run school/shelter but has not updated death toll.