UPDATED Iran Video & Translation: Dr Etaat's Opposition On State Media (14 January --- Parts 1 and 2)

We have now posted Part 3 of the video, with translation:

There has been a massive buzz about the appearance by Dr Javad Etaat, a professor of political science at Shahid Behesti University, on Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting. Possibly in response to criticism that it has been one-sided in post-election coverage, IRIB has headlined a series of debates. It may not have bargained, however, for the intensity of Etaat's comments, made in his discussion with "conservative" MP Ali Reza Zakani.

Iran Video & Translation: Dr Etaat’s Opposition On State Media (14 January — Part 3)

Here are Parts 1 and 2 of the exchange, with extracts translated by the good people at the new website The Flying Carpet Institute.Further parts of the video are available via the same YouTube link, and a translation of Part 2 is promised tomorrow by our Flying Carpet friends.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=06UU4IFDKmA[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7eE9bs25kLQ[/youtube]

PART 1

*I was once invited to hold a speech about the attempt to topple Iran political system with a Velvet Revolution. But we all know that Velvet Revolutions always occur in dictatorships. So basically when you say that some forces are planning to make a Velvet Revolution, you have indirectly admitted that your system is not democratic.



When elections, discussions and competition take place in a free atmosphere, why should people want to make a revolution? People make revolutions maybe only every hundred years and only then when they are totally fed up with the situation. It doesn’t matter whether the revolution is a violent, velvet, coloured, white, black, red yellow. So when the Islamic Republic talks about Velvet Revolution, there is an unintended confession that Iran is not a free country and people can’t achieve their goals through the institutions the system offers. So the result is that people want to make a revolution.

*As an expert of political issues I’m disappointed by IRIB’s current policies.

*Regarding the tearing of Imam Khomeini’s portrait: Someone tore his portrait…it’s not even clear who it was. But IRIB broadcast this scene over and over again. We all know that tearing Khomeini’s portrait is an insult to him, but what about attacking his former residense (Beyte Emam) during Tasua (26 December), when former president (Mohammad) Khatami was holding a speech? Isn’t that illegal? Isn’t that an insult to the Imam?

There are not many honourable men like Khatami who love Islam, the revolution and the constitution, like the way he does. But still he was attacked by armed thugs. Why did these people do that? Why is it forbidden to express a different view? Why wasn’t he allowed to interprete the historic Ashura event the way he wanted?

It’s a fact that Khatami is critical to many aspects of the regime, but it’s an insult to this revolution that, 30 years after this system was established, people dare to attack other people with batons and knives. Unfortunately IRIB encourages this kind of behaviour.

*Regarding Ashura: Everyone loves Imam Hossein (3rd Imam of Shi'a Islam), no matter if this person is a Jew, Christian, Sunni, or Shiite. So if someone committed a misconduct during Ashura, be sure that people will punish him. If singing and clapping is a misconduct during Ashura, then beating and killing people is a much more worse act. Now look how...we are ruling!

*IRIB unfortunately had a negative role in all these [developments]. How do you want the people to express their dissatisfaction with current events if you don’t offer them a fair platform? IRIB must think about that criticism. You even admitted that certain people refused to take part in your past shows, because they don’t trust the IRIB. I was one of those people but I wanted to use the rare opportunity to express my dissatisfaction.

Part 2

*You say that we prepared the ground for riots. I believe that it’s not right to generalize. The number of opponents of the government is far higher than the number of those you see on the streets protesting. You have to consider that you haven’t even permitted one of those past street rallies. On 25th Khordad (15 June), for example, people came to the streets even though there was no official call from the opposition to demonstrate. But still two to three million Iranians took the streets. If you had permitted the marches, a guaranteed right according to the Constitution of the Islamic Republic, you can be sure that the number of the protesters would be much, much higher than what you have witnessed on that day.

*You always mention law but you don’t understand that your very own acts are against the law. Our Constitution (Article 27) says, “Public gatherings and marches may be freely held, provided arms are not carried and that they are not detrimental to the fundamental principles of Islam.” We often asked you to allow us to hold rallies. By the way, we also asked for a permission to publicly protest against the tearing of the Imam’s portrait.

The Green movement condemns any kind of violence, and if a minority uses violence, then it’s wrong to say all the protesters are violent rioters. One of the representatives of the government once said that people who want to protest on the streets must also provide security by themselves. But I ask you: Why do we pay the police? They are paid to protect the people and offer general security in the society!

*In the past 5 years that your government ruled the country, you did things that created an atmosphere of dissatisfaction.

*Article 6 and Article 56 of the Constitution guarantee people’s sovereignty.

*I quote Article 177: The contents of the Articles of the Constitution related to the Islamic character of the political system; the basis of all the rules and regulations according to Islamic criteria; the religious footing; the objectives of the Islamic Republic of Iran; the democratic character of the government[…]are unalterable.

*I quote Article 56: Absolute sovereignty over the world and man belongs to God, and it is He who has made man master of his own social destiny. No one can deprive man of this divine right, nor subordinate it to the vested interests of a particular individual or group. The people are to exercise this divine right in the manner specified in the following articles.*

*If you had acknowledged people’s sovereignty as it is described in the Constitution in the first place, no one would criticize you today. You rejected about 2400 potential candidates for the last parliamentary elections to create your own majority, and now you wonder why people are unhappy with the system. I don’t want to talk about the elections that were held in our country in the past. The question is why the Guardian Council misinterprets the constitution.*

*I’ll quote Article 44 of the constitution: “The economy of the Islamic Republic of Iran is to consist of three sectors: state, cooperative, and private, and is to be based on systematic and sound planning. The state sector is to include all large-scale and mother industries, foreign trade, major minerals, banking, insurance, power generation, dams and large-scale irrigation networks, radio and television, post, telegraph and telephone services, aviation, shipping, roads, railroads, and the like; all these will be publicly owned and administered by the State.”

But your government privatized almost all of those sectors! Then, when it comes to radio and television, you say that this sector must be controlled by the state! Why is that the case? Why does the Guardian Council say that the privatisation of the IRIB is forbidden? You see, you truly debase the people by your acts. And still you wonder why people are unhappy and want to protest.

*You close down newspapers and deny people’s right to criticize.

*Not only that….Your government is also incompetent when it comes to economic matters….The Government's wrong policies created a stunningly high inflation. In the eight years of Khatami’s government, the price for meat was about 3000 – 3700 Tomans. Are you aware that now the price for meat is 18,000 Tomans?…The same with real estate….

*Accept that people are opposing you because you failed in almost every field.

*I will now tell a story about the rule of Imam Ali to show you the gap between the quality of your rule and Ali’s: Once the “Khavaresh” who opposed Ali’s rule disrupted one of Ali’s sermons and insulted him in the mosque. But Ali said: "You are allowed to stay in the mosque and state your dissatisfaction, and as long you don’t use your sword we won’t punish you.”*

* But you closed down the mosque [in Shiraz] of Ayatollah Dastgheib, even though he is a Marja (senior cleric). You see the gap between your rule and Imam Ali’s!

The Latest from Iran (14 January): The Professor's Funeral

1925 GMT: A (Pick the) Number of Protesters Will Be Tried Sometime in the Future with War Against the Regime (and Maybe God). Press TV trots out the latest press release to show Justice Will Be Done over the protests of Ashura (27 December):

Iran's judiciary says it has forwarded the cases of sixteen individuals indicted in connection with the Ashura riot in Tehran to the Revolution Court.

The Tehran Prosecutor's office said in a statement that one of the defendants could be charged with being "mohareb" (enemy of God) — a crime punishable by execution.

The fifteen [other] suspects were charged with "conspiring against national security and carrying out acts against the establishment," the statement added.

This is the latest in a series of public set-pieces. A couple of weeks ago, "seven" defendants appeared in Revolutionary Guard. Then there was the announcement that "five" demonstrators would be charged as "mohareb".

All of this, in contrast to the public show of the Tehran trials in August, seems just a bit haphazard.

1840 GMT: Mir Hossein Mousavi has offered condolences to the family of Professor Ali-Mohammadi.

1835 GMT: Payvand has a useful summary of 19 women's rights activists and female journalists who were detained in the days after the Ashura protests.

1825 GMT: Professor Ali-Mohammadi and Sweden. There has been a lot of chatter around the theory that Massoud Ali-Mohammadi was killed by regime loyalists, in part because he was going to take up a fellowship at Stockholm University in Sweden. We've done some checking:

1. We can establish nothing beyond the claim of the physicist's colleagues that "he had been in touch" with Stockholm about a one-year research grant. That's not necessarily "taking up" a fellowship, since in many cases, an application is made to a funding body, e.g., the European Union's research support programmes, for a Visiting Scholar.

The claim, without further evidence, was exaggerated on prominent blogs into Ali-Mohammadi definitely leading the country.

2. It is not necessarily an anti-regime step to take up an overseas fellowship. I personally know academics who support the regime who have held such fellowships.

3. There is nothing to indicate that Ali-Mohammadi's research fellowship would have turned into a defection.

4. There's a contradiction in the theory. If Ali-Mohammadi was in fact a particle physicist who had little or no connection with Iran's nuclear programme, why would there be a risk for the regime in his taking up a fellowship, since he would have no sensitive information to disclose?

NEW Latest Iran Video: The Life, Death, and Funeral of Professor Ali-Mohammadi (14 January)
NEW Latest Iran Video: “A Message to Armed Forces of Iran” (13 January)
NEW Iran Analysis: Political Manoeuvring Around the Professor’s Death
Iran Analysis: Nuclear Myths, Rogue Elements, and Professor Ali-Mohammadi’s Murder
NEW Iran Special: Interpreting the Death of Professor Ali-Mohammadi
NEW Latest Iran Video: The Leverett Line on Killing of Professor Ali-Mohammadi (13 January)
Latest Iran Video: How State Media Frames Killing of “Nuclear” Professor (12 January)
The Latest from Iran (13 January): Speculations and Realities

1800 GMT: Follow-up on Troublesome Clerics. We noted last night that clerics are re-emerging to challenge the Government. Ayande News has the letter of Ayatollah Mohammad Sadeghi Tehrani declaring that any official position for Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, former First Vice President and current Ahmadinejad Chief of Staff, is religiously forbidden. And Persian2English posts the text of Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani's position on velayat-e-faqih (ultimate clerical authority):

QUESTION: Recently, the slogan "the principle of the supreme leader is part of our religion [Islam]’s principle” was heard and repeatedly broadcast on TV. Are the principles of religion among secondary principles? Can something be added to it or deducted from it? Isn’t this slogan a blasphemy? According to Islam what sentence should be considered for [those who challenge velayat-e-faqih]? What is our responsibility?

ZANJANI: The principle of the supreme leader is a political and juridical principle, and an arguable subject among Faqihs. Although it seems to be the right principle, it’s not the principle of religion and denying it is not infidelity. Those who claim otherwise are innovating and they should be rejected.

1500 GMT: Parleman News reports that Hassan Abedi Jafari, an advisor to Mir Hossein Mousavi, has been released from detention. It is claimed that Jafari's seven-year prison sentence has been overturned.

Nobel Prize laureate Shirin Ebadi has told Al Jazeera that her sister Noushin has been freed from prison.

1425 GMT: Rah-e-Sabz reports that the chief editor of Aftab-e Yazd has resigned to prevent the closure of the daily newspaper.

1415 GMT: Arrests and Jail Terms. Mohammad Ali Shirzadi, documentary-maker and member of the Committee of Prisoner's Defense was arrested Monday night. His whereabouts are still unknown.

Salman Sima, a member of the Students Policymaking Council, has been given a six-year prison sentence by the Revolutionary Court. SPC senior members Ahmad Zeydabadi and Abdollah Momeni have also received long jail terms.

Peyke Iran is reporting that 100 protesters detained on Ashura (27 December) have been put in the solitary-confinement cells of Gohardasht prison in Karaj.

1405 GMT: Linking Economics and Politics. It might be worthwhile to keep an eye on Khabar Online, which has been poking at the Government. First, there was the rebuff of the official line that Professor Ali-Mohammadi was part of Iran's nuclear programme (see 1025 GMT). Now there is this economic story, which intersects with comments EA readers have been making:

Currently several projects in Iran's rich gas field of South Pars have come to a halt or are to be closed down....Sirous Sazdar, a member of the energy committee of Iranian Parliament (Majlis) emphasized that the gas ventures of the country are not developed in an efficient manner. He referred to the fact that from the last year the capacity of Iran's gas production has not boosted.

"This winter the weather was on the side of Iranian gas officials. The gas production capacity of the country is about 500 million cubic meters per day. This year if the weather had grown so cold like what people experienced in winter 2008, we would need 700 million cubic meters of gas and could face a shortage of 200 million cubic meters a day," he said.

"Although these days the weather is not that much cold, we witness that to provide consumer gas for houses and business places, the officials have dropped the bulk of delivered gas to power stations by 30 million cubic meters," Sazdar pointed out.

The wider significance? Khabar is far from a reformist publication; indeed, it's considered to be close to Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani. So, while Larijani makes his statements promoting the hard line against the Green movement, an allied publication is making trouble for President Ahmadinejad....

1350 GMT: Israel Did It. Pretty much a complete summary of today's comment by President Ahmadinejad on the Ali-Mohammadi killing, although he did dress it up a bit:

The depth of the enemies' grudge can be seen in the university professor's assassination. The manner of bomb planting shows a Zionist style and they want to make sure that Iran would not advance. [Iran's foes] don't want to see thinkers and scientists in Iran and do not want to see its development. The enemies can not take away the concept of genius from Iran by killing geniuses.

1345 GMT: Complementing today's video of the Ali-Mohammadi funeral, we've posted the video of an Al Jazeera debate, featuring Seyed Mohammad Marandi, Siavush Randjbar-Daemi, and Joshua Goodman, over the politics around his death. (See our initial comments on this debate in yesterday's updates.)

1215 GMT: Reliable sources report that Shapour Kazemi, the brother of Mir Hossein Mousavi's wife Zahra Rahnavard, has been released from detention. Kazemi has been in jail, on two separate occasions, for most of the post-election period.

1210 GMT: We have posted two videos of the life and death of Ali-Mohammadi, a report on today's funeral and an interview with his colleague.

1200 GMT: An Eyewitness Account of the Ali-Mohammadi Funeral. An EA correspondent has received the following from a "very reliable" source:

The street in front of Ali-Mohammadi's house was filled to the brim with louts who were bussed in to chant "Death to America". They essentially hijacked the street AND the house of Ali-Mohammadi.

Ali-Mohammadi's family were holed up inside their home by security forces, and they have been threatened since yesterday. His wife was screaming "You finally killed him!" [this detail has also been reported by Rah-e-Sabz]. The students and professors were forced to go into a separate procession. They started shouting religious intonations for the dead and were assaulted by plainclothesmen.

No one has any shred of doubt in Tehran any longer as to who really killed him --- it's the security forces, in one way or another.

Rah-e-Sabz reports the following from another eyewitness:

There was a heavy presence of security forces, with no one was allowed to stand in front of Ali-Mohammadi's home. Police loudspeakers were ordering people out of the street and onto the burial site. The streets around it were packed with plainclothes and ordinary police. Three women photographers working for "foreign news agencies" were arrested by the female division of the police.

A brother of Ali-Mohammadi has claimed that his desktop computer has been taken away from his house, and he and another relative [the Professor's wife] claims the authorities killed him.

A statement which Fars claimed last night to have obtained from Ali-Mohammadi's family was false. According to the same source, the family hasn't made any statements yet.

1035 GMT: OK, I'll Stay for 99% Support. Hojatoleslam Ruhollah Hosseinian, who had threatened to resign as a member of Parliament because there has not been “100% support for Ayatollah Khamenei”, has decided to stay after discussions with President Ahmadinejad's advisors. Hosseinian reportedly presented the revocation of his resignation directly to the Supreme Leader.

1030 GMT: The Ali-Mohammadi Funeral. Peyke Iran has a report on the event, including the observation of a heavy security presence which remains even though the funeral has concluded.

1025 GMT: Khabar Online has challenged the official line on Professor Ali-Mohammadi, highlighting the statement from the Iranian Atomic Energy Organization that the physicist did not work with the nuclear programme.

0945 GMT: We've posted an interesting video --- makers unknown --- calling on Iran's armed forces to join the Green movement.

0930 GMT: Another University Statement on Ali-Mohammadi. Islamic Republic News Agency is featuring a statement from Allameh Tabatabei University, declaring that Iranian scientists are victims of counter-revolutionaries associated with global threats, arrogance, and Zionism.

0910 GMT: We now have confirmation, including photograph in our inset box, of heavy security presence around the funeral of Professor Ali-Mohammadi, as authorities fear that the occasion will bring protests.

0710 GMT: The Move Against Ahmadinejad's Government. Radio Farda returns to a key story beyond the Ali-Mohammadi news: member of Parliament Ali Motahari's ongoing campaign against the President and his allies. Motahari has again called for the removal of the legal immunity of Saeed Mortazavi, former Tehran Prosecutor General and now Presidential aide, in the investigation of detainee abuses.

0640 GMT: And There Will Be Free Cupcakes for All. You cannot accuse President Ahmadinejad of being cautious in his declarations. Here is a nugget from his speech in Khuzestan in southwestern Iran on Wednesday.

Iran is a rich country and if justice is established not even a single person will be unemployed or poor....I have also assured the parliament members that if the plan is implemented by a smooth mechanism, Iran will not have even a single jobless or poor within three years.

0635 GMT: Unsurprisingly, the leading news today continues to be the speculation and political manipulation of the killing of Professor Massoud Ali-Mohammadi. We have posted a latest analysis. We will also post, later today, the video of the discussion on Al Jazeera English's "Inside Story" --- including academics Seyed Mohammad Marandi and Siavush Randjbar-Daemi --- of the case.

Ali-Mohammadi's funeral is today, and we will be watching for any sign of a demonstration around it.

The Latest from Iran (11 January): Reading the Regime

2045 GMT: Sanctions La-Dee-Dah. Associated Press is a-quiver over this statement by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, though I'm not sure why:

It is clear that there is a relatively small group of decision makers inside Iran. They are in both political and commercial relationships, and if we can create a sanctions track that targets those who actually make the decisions, we think that is a smarter way to do sanctions. But all that is yet to be decided upon.

That's not a breakthrough declaration, only a holding one. The White House does not want the sweeping sanctions proposed by Congress and will go for a "targeted" approach. It's just not clear who is being targeted with what.

1945 GMT: Journalist Mohammad Reza Nourbakhsh has been sentenced to three years in jail by an appeals court for participating in rallies on 15 June. Nourbakhsh was originally given a six-year prison term.

1940 GMT: Beaten in Detention. Kalemeh claims Mehdi Mahmoudian, a senior member of the reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front, has been beaten by the authorities in Evin Prison.

NEW Iran Exclusive: The Latest Nuclear Riddle — Renewed Talks with “West”?
NEW Iran Analysis: Beyond the Headlines, The Regime Battles Itself
NEW Iran & Twitter: Myth v. Reality of Security and “Deep Packet Inspection”
NEW Iran & Twitter: Last Words on The Hell of Heaven (Shahryar)
Latest Iran Video: Military Commander Mullen on US Options (10 January)
Iran Special Analysis: A US Move to “Sanctions for Rights”?
Iran: Challenge to The Government in “The Heartlands”?
The Latest from Iran (10 January): “Middle” Ground?

1935 GMT: The Detained. Back from an academic break to find that an Iranian activist has posted the names of 156 people arrested between the religious days of Tasoa and Ashura (26-27 December) and 9 January.

1635 GMT: Spinning Rafsanjani. Hashemi Rafsanjani, speaking as chairman of the Expediency Council, has made another general call for reconcilation.

Press TV portrays this as "the Iranian nation should follow the rule of the law and avoid taking extrajudicial measures as not to obstruct the path of justice". While this could be applied as an injunction to both the opposition and Government forces, the state outlet puts the emphasis is on following the guidance of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic: "If [this is] obeyed, balance will return to the society and there will be no room left for frictions. Foreign enemies have clung to the current state of affairs in the country as it is apparent in their tone."

The website also tries to rebut the claim, made by Rafsanjani's brother this weekend, that the former President has been pressured into silence. Instead, it claimed that "Rafsanjani rejected the notion and said he was always trying to resolve the problems away from media hype".

1615 GMT: Those Wacky Leveretts. They may have had their pro-Government, anti-Green movement opinion, published in The New York Times, shredded by analyst after analyst, but that doesn't stop Flynt and Hillary Mann Leverett from returning to their defence of the regime.

On their website, the Leveretts crudely twist a Wall Street Journal article (which was considered in an EA analysis yesterday on the US policy on sanctions, Iran's nuclear programme, and a "rights-first" approach) into "THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION MOVES TOWARD REGIME CHANGE IN ITS IRAN POLICY". They select and crop quotes, to the point of distortion, but this is their sleight-of-hand claim:

Buying into the proposition that the Islamic Republic is imploding has the effect of driving the policy argument toward support for “regime change” in Tehran.

Umm, no. There is a difference between analysis --- in this case, evaluating the internal difficulties in the Iranian regime --- and advocacy. It's the "is-ought" difference, one which should be picked up by an undergraduate student, let alone a supposed foreign-policy expert: noting that something "is" happening is not the same as declaring it "ought" to happen.

The Leveretts are not undergraduate students, so they know what they are doing. By putting out this claim, "whether President Obama and his advisers want to call their policy “regime change”, that is precisely the direction in which they are moving", they will buttress the propaganda line of the Iranian Government that the opposition can all be attributed to "foreign instigation". (I heard this declaration loud and clear in two presentations, including one by an  academic who works with the Leveretts, at the Beirut conference I attended last week.)

Since the survival of the Iranian regime rests in part on making that allegation stick, and since the Leveretts support the quest for that survival, let's just recognise this piece for what it is: an "ought" piece of advocacy rather than an "is" contribution to analysis.

(P.S. to Flynt and Hillary: Throwing in a picture of Senator Joseph Lieberman, who is calling for a "rights-based" approach to sanctions, with Ahmad Chalabi of Iraq "regime change" infamy, is a really nice touch.)

1505 GMT: Today's Fist-Shaker. It's Iran Prosecutor General Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejeie making an appearance to tell Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi that it's time for measures against "elements behind the recent sedition....It is expected that the demands ... that those who were leading the post-election sedition are put on trial, are met."

1500 GMT: The "Reformist" Push. Former President Mohammad Khatami has put out his own statement, following that of Mehdi Karroubi, calling for an end to the "extreme violence" and dialogue over political, social, and economic issues.

1455 GMT: A Day for Analyses. Not sure why, but a lot of information seems to be falling into place today. The latest topic is Iran's nuclear manoeuvres with "the West" --- we've got an exclusive on Tehran's latest attempt to keep the discussions going.

1340 GMT: Waving Sticks. EA readers have offered comments considering the reasons for this weekend's declaration by General David Petraeus, the head of the US military's Central Command, that all military options are open in contingency plans for Iran (see yesterday's updates).

For the Iranian Government, however, there is a simple reading. The Foreign Ministry spokesman declared today, "[Petraeus'] comments are thoughtless and it is better that any statement made in this regard take a constructive approach."

1315 GMT: The Karroubi Statement (see 1150 GMT). Reuters has picked up on Mehdi Karroubi's declaration with takeaway quotes such as....

[I am] prepared for any disaster.....Some are thinking that they can block the reform course by closing down newspapers and putting reformers in jail ... but I remain firm in the path that I have chosen....I announce that such threats will not frighten me and will not weaken me in this path.

Agence France Presse has a shorter but similar article. Inexplicably, both Reuters and AFP miss the even more important part of Karroubi's statement, the 5-point proposal for resolution.

1200 GMT: We've posted a special analysis, based on latest developments and speech, of the battles within the Iranian regime. The conclusion? This will only be resolved "when someone stabs Ahmadinejad in the back".

1150 GMT: Karroubi's "5-Point" Plan. First it was Mir Hossein Mousavi with a 5-point post-Ashura proposal for political resolution; now it's Mehdi Karroubi.

Karroubi has written an open letter proposing 1) admission by Government officials of injustices; 2) adherence to the values of the Islamic Revolution through guarantees such as freedom of the press and legal rights; 3) adherence to non-violence for reform and acceptance of the Supreme Leader; 4) acceptance of criticism and an end to violence against those who dissent; 5) a national debate so Iranian people can make a free and informed decision about the way forward for the country.

1145 GMT: Rah-e-Sabz reports that 56 professors at Elm-o-Sanat University in Tehran have written in support of students, asking that they are able to take examinations without fear of disciplinary action over protests.

The intervention follows an open letter by almost 90 professors at Tehran University to the Supreme Leader, asking for a cessation of violence against demonstrations.

1130 GMT: The "Incomplete" Detainees Report. Parallelling and extending the "reformist" criticism that the Parliament report on detainee abuse is incomplete, Ayande News --- which is far from reformist --- is claiming that Iranian state media have not given a full account of the report and its discussion in the Majlis. Ayande even asks whether those responsible for the abuses at Kahrizak Prison are also responsible for output on Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting.

1110 GMT: Foreign Presence. The Government's overseas push is in Syria, as Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki visits Damascus. No significant news has come out of the talks so far.

0920 GMT: No major news this morning, but a lot of individual developments with deeper meanings this weekend. The Supreme Leader's speech, President Ahmadinejad's appearance in Parliament, the arrest of the Mothers of Mourning and their supporters in Laleh Park, the Parliamentary report on the abuse of detainees: all have gotten headline coverage, but the intra-regime tensions that they reveal have yet to be analysed, if recognised. We'll make a start on that analysis later today.

Meanwhile, Josh Shahryar and Mike Dunn have special analyses trying to put away the recent mis-information on #IranElection, Twitter, and security. Shahryar offers final words of reply to Will Heaven, the blogger for The Daily Telegraph who tried to blame "Twitterati" for endangering the Iranian people, while Dunn separates myth from reality over "Deep Packet Inspection".

Iran: "What is This Opposition?" Right Answers to Wrong Questions

EA's Josh Shahryar offers this analysis, also published in The Huffington Post:

On Wednesday in The New York Times, Flynt Leverett and Hillary Mann Leverett attempted perhaps the most stinging dismissal of the importance of the ongoing opposition protests in Iran.

Bloggers and other foreign policy experts refuted many of the Leveretts' specific points, especially their overestimation of government-sponsored protests and underestimation of opposition demonstrations. [EA's immediate reaction is in Wednesday's updates.] I have covered the numbers on my blog, but a very good second opinion is offered by Daniel Drezner in ForeignPolicy.com.

Drezner and Kevin Sullivan of Real Clear Politics set a wider challenge, however, when they argue that, beyond the Leveretts' distortions, there are "good" analytical questions.

Those questions need a response, not necessarily because they are "good", but because if they are not addressed, the Leveretts may get away with a blatant attempt at skewing facts to hammer in their argument that President Barack Obama should forget about the possibility of regime change in Iran.

This is how the Leveretts set out their three queries:

Those who talk so confidently about an "opposition" in Iran as the vanguard for a new revolution should be made to answer three tough questions: First, what does this opposition want? Second, who leads it? Third, through what process will this opposition displace the government in Tehran? In the case of the 1979 revolutionaries, the answers to these questions were clear. They wanted to oust the American-backed regime of Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi and to replace it with an Islamic republic. Everyone knew who led the revolution: Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, who despite living in exile in Paris could mobilize huge crowds in Iran simply by sending cassette tapes into the country. While supporters disagreed about the revolution's long-term agenda, Khomeini's ideas were well known from his writings and public statements. After the shah's departure, Khomeini returned to Iran with a draft constitution for the new political order in hand. As a result, the basic structure of the Islamic Republic was set up remarkably quickly.

Let's see what ancient China has to offer before I add my assessment. Back in the olden days, this man traveled hundreds of miles to meet a Taoist sage somewhere in China. After the necessary greetings, he said, "I have come a long way to ask you something. What is the answer to the ultimate question in the universe?" The sage smiled and barked, "Well, that is not what you should be asking. You should ask: is there an answer to the ultimate question in the universe?"

In this parable, the first question posed by the Leveretts is fair: what does this opposition want?

Well, certainly not what Mir Hossein Mousavi wants. Even if we ignore the protesters' repeated calls for the freedom of detainees and other chants that call for help from Imam Hossein against tyranny, I think "Down with the Dictator" --- heard for the last six months, heard loudly and clearly --- is a slogan that embodies the demands. President Ahmadinejad Must Go.

In recent months, however, protesters have also widely started chanting against Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The funeral of Grand Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri was filled with noise denouncing the Supreme Leader. Ashura's protests days later were condemned by the regime for committing the same offense.

Certainly, Mousavi is still bargaining with the government. However, people on the street aren't ready to chicken out of their demands, even in the face of gunfire. If the government hadn't forcefully stopped them from presenting their demands through the media, you would have already seen that clearly.

The second question of the Leveretts is one the Taoist sage would have barked at: Who leads it?

The two questioners attempt to fool us into believing that their enquiry is fair by paralleling it with the Iranian Revolution of 1979. Revolutions need leaders and the current protesters don't have one --- quod erat demonstrandum, this is not a revolution.

The first assumption is not true, however: it is not a prerequisite for revolutions to have leaders. Consider the February Revolution of 1917 that overthrew Tsar Nicholas I of Russia. Academics are generally in agreement that it was without what we today consider a definite and centralized leadership. Almost a century later, if you envisage scattered activists working together to bring people out to protest, then Iran has no shortage of those. Mousavi, often considered the de-facto "leader" of the current protesters -- didn't even sanction or support protests that were joined by hundreds of thousands in Ashura.

The third question of the Leveretts made me smirk because it has no immediate relevance: through what process will this opposition displace the government in Tehran?

Well, I wish I knew. But just because the protesters' demands have not been met yet, does not mean that we need to figure how they are going to achieve them. That is their task, a quest for which they've been coming out onto the streets of Iran, chanting as loud as they can, getting arrested, and spilling blood for the past six months to show their commitment to achieving those demands.

Who knows what might overthrow the regime? Maybe the Islamic Republic of Iran Army (Artesh) will finally step in. Maybe millions will turn up and storm Khamenei and Ahmadinejad's house and the parliament. Maybe the violence will get so rampant that the leaders of Iran will simply board a plane to Moscow and flee. This we don't know.

But we do know that simply because they have not met their goals yet, does not mean they won't in the future. The Leveretts' attempt to parallel this movement with the Revolution of 1979 tries to force us into believing that we need to know how, but we really don't.

When the change happens, we will know. Until then, all we can do is support the opposition because they're not just fighting for political rights, but for their human rights. If President Obama believes the Leveretts and discounts the power of the Green Movement, he risks making enemies of the open and secular Iran of the future, just like Jimmy Carter did when he discounted the Revolution of 1979. (Not to mention the fact that he would be guilty of legitimizing an illegitimate regime.)

The Leveretts' piece made me really grateful to an old professor of mine, Dr. Rick Schubert, bless him. Dr. Schubert gave me a D in Philosophy 101, but he taught me what now has become my Golden Rule: questions are equally as important as the answer to them, so be careful before you ask. Maybe the Leveretts should attend one of his classes.

Latest from Iran (7 January): Radio Silence?

2155 GMT: Hmm.... Looks like the homepage of Iran's Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance has been visited by a hacker.

2150 GMT: Are You Listening in Tel Aviv? The Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen, has pretty much slapped a public restraining order on an Israeli attack on Iran. He told the Washington Institute of Near East Policy that Iran was "on a path that has strategic intent to develop nuclear weapons and have been for some time" and "that outcome is potentially a very, very destabilizing outcome"; however, he continued:

On the other hand, when asked about striking Iran, specifically, that also has a very, very destabilizing outcome....That part of the world could become much more unstable, which is a dangerous global outcome.

(Here's a surprise: Iran's Press TV is already featuring Mullen's words.)

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The Latest from Iran (6 January): Distractions

2125 GMT: An Iranian blog has published pictures of those trying to attack Mehdi Karroubi in Qazvin tonight (see 2025 GMT).

An Iranian activist has posted a summary on Facebook, claiming about 200 plainclothes "thugs" gathered outside the house where Karroubi was staying. The police tried to prevent a confrontation as about 500 people looked on; however, according to the activist, there were Revolutionary Guard commanders amongst the would-be attackers. When Karroubi was leaving, his car was pelted with eggs and broken bricks.

2120 GMT: Deutsche Welle publishes a story mentioned by one of our readers earlier today. The Iranian Government has declared that "defaced" banknotes will not be considered as legal currency as of 16 January. The announcement is clearly aimed at the widespread movement of protest by putting Green slogans on the currency.

In response, the opposition has declared that 17 January will be a day of protest with massive circulation of the "Green" banknotes.

2039 GMT: 99% Support is Not Enough. Peyke Iran reports that Hojatoleslam Ruhollah Hosseinian has resigned as a member of Parliament because there has not been "100% support for Ayatollah Khamenei". Hosseinian is considered a fervent supporter of President Ahmadinejad, whom he has served as security advisor. He is also a former Deputy Minister of Intelligence.

2025 GMT: Karroubi Visit and Qazvin Clashes. A lot of chatter about Mehdi Karroubi's trip to Qazvin, 165 miles northwest of Tehran. Saham News reports that there were clashes when  the home of Hojetoleslam Ghavami, where Karroubi was staying, was attacked.

2000 GMT: Iranian human rights groups report that student leader Majid Tavakoli, detained after his speech at the 16 Azar (7 December) protests, has been tried and sentenced in Revolutionary Court.

Tavakoli, given permission to contact his family for the first time since his arrest, said he was charged with insulting the Supreme Leader, insulting the President, and gathering and spreading propaganda against the regime. The trial was held behind closed doors, and Tavakoli remains in solitary confinement in Evin Prison.

Iranian authorities attempted to humiliate Tavakoli by distributing his photograph in woman's hejab, prompting the protest "We Are All Majid".

1950 GMT: Fasih Yasamani was hanged on Wednesday.

Yasamani, in prison since 2007, was accused of belonging to the opposition party Pajvak,
an armed Kurdish group. The evidence against Yasamani were his confessions, which he claimed were obtained by torture.

The 28-year-old Yasamani is the second Kurdish citizen executed since the June election. Ehsan Fattahian was killed on 11 November.

Iranian human rights groups claim that there are 17 other political prisoners on death row in Kurdistan.

1945 GMT:Ashura "Mohareb" Trials? Islamic Republic News Agency reports that five of the protesters on Ashura (27 December) will be tried in Revolutionary Court.

There has already reportedly been a trial of demonstrators. The distinction in this report is these five will be charged with "mohareb" (a war against God), a crime which can be punished by death.

1730 GMT: Radio Silence Indeed. Because of complications of site outage and my commitments in Beirut, we've been limited in updates today. I'll be here about 1930 GMT to go through the day's events.

1005 GMT: Missing. The husband of student activist Bahareh Hedayat, has told Rooz Online, "We have no information about her." Hedayat was detained at the end of December.

1000 GMT: A Petition with Caution.
An interesting story out of Australia....

After the resignation of an Iranian diplomat in Norway in protest over the Government's handling of the post-election conflict, Iran Solidarity in Melbourne has posted a petition asking Iran's Ambassador to Australia to give up his post.

There's a note on the petition, however, which points to fear as well as activism: "***READ BEFORE SIGNING*** UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES SHOULD ANYBODY USE THEIR REAL NAME WHEN SIGNING THIS PETITION."

0625 GMT: Tantalising --- but True? One claim, and it is only a claim at this point, to note: Maziar Bahari writes in Newsweek: "Sources close to conservatives say that some leading figures are now pressing [Supreme Leader] Khamenei to dump [President] Ahmadinejad in order to preserve his own position."

0620 GMT: Possibly the quietest period in Iranian politics since June, even in chatter amongst our Internet sources.

Speaking of those sources, we have two special analyses this morning. Josh Shahryar offers a detailed response to a recent article ridiculing the role of social media in the post-election events in Iran. And I flash back to late June with "A Tale of Two Twitterers".

We'll be on limited service today because of conference duties. Please keep sending in news and comment, especially if situation picks up later today.