The Latest from Iran (26 January): Now for the Follow-Up....

2200 GMT: Closing Notes (Until Tomorrow). Big news is that, despite attempts by some analysts to declare "Much Ado About Nothing", Mehdi Karroubi has not only clarified his challenge today, not only maintained it, but declared that he will soon be extending it by setting out his demands on the electoral, legal, and political processes.

Elsewhere, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has maintained his own defiance by appointing aide Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, the target of both "reformist" and "conservative" opposition,  as the chief of the President’s youth advisors. This is an addition to Mashai’s positions of President’s deputy for affairs of Iranians living abroad, special advisory of President in oil affairs, head of assembly for free economic zones, and the chairman of the cultural commission in the cabinet.

Mohammad Taqi Rahbar, the head of the clergies committee in Parliament, is not impressed, however: he has criticised Ahmadinejad’s special relationship with Mashai, declaring that the President is sacrificing the regime and Government for Mashai’s favour.

NEW Iran: Rafsanjani Chooses A Side?
NEW Iran Special Analysis: What Karroubi’s Statement on “Mr Khamenei”/”Head of Government” Means
NEW Latest Iran Audio: Hossein Karroubi on His Father’s Statement (25 January)
Iran Snap Analysis: The Karroubi and Khatami Manoeuvres
The Latest from Iran (25 January): Who Makes A Move Today?

And now your nominee for bravest/most ridiculous sentence of the week: the head of the Guardian Council, Ayatollah Ahmed Jannati says: "We (the Guardian Council) held the recent election without the tiniest problem."

2030 GMT: Going after the Reporters. Two senior members of the Committee of Human Rights Reporters, Koohyar Goodarzi and Mehrdad Rahimi, have been accused of "mohareb" (war against God).

1930 GMT: We've posted a special snap analysis of Hashemi Rafsanjani's statement today, which may or may not indicate he has "chosen a side" in the current conflict.

1745 GMT: Rumour of Day (3). Saham News claims that Mohammad Jafar Behdad, the political deputy of President Ahmadinejad’s bureau, has been sentenced to jail on the basis of two accusations by Ali Larijani and one by Hashemi Rafsanjani.

The charge is that Behdad wrote in an online article, deleted 50 minutes later, that those who are to blame for the killing of protesters are the persons who called Mir Hossein Mousavi on the afternoon of the elections to congratulate him, causing his delusion and subsequent decision for instigating the people to revolt. That claim points at Larjiani who, according to politicians like Ali Reza Zakani, contacted Mousavi with the news of "victory".

1740 GMT: Rumour of Day (2). Rah-e-Sabz follows up the story, linked to our analysis of Mehdi Karroubi's initiative, that former President Mohammad Khatami wrote a letter to the Supreme Leader, asking for Ayatollah Khamenei's intervention to stop the illegal activities and disregard of citizen rights of the regime.

The website reports, from an "informed source", that the Supreme Leader rejected the analysis and recommendations. It adds, dampening down the "recogntion of the President" story and any serious Karroubi-Khatami split, that rumours of Khatami criticising the reformists or endorsing the legitimacy of the government are untrue and are being spread by the regime to cause divisions in the Green movement.

1730 GMT: Rumour of Day (1). Rah-e-Sabz claims that the son of Ali Larijani was arrested during the Ashura demonstrations. He was allegedly released 24 hours later when his identity was established.

1620 GMT: The Supreme Leader's Response: It's All About the Internet. Not sure if this is really going to answer the challenge put forth in the last 24 hours....

Ayatollah Khamenei has declared in a speech on state television, "The Americans have said that they have allocated a $45 million budget to help them to confront the Islamic Republic of Iran via the Internet....This decision shows the height of the enemy's frustration. They have spent tens of billions of dollars in the past (in confronting Iran), but have achieved no results."

Leave aside the fact that the facts are a bit off-the-mark (the US Senate voted in July to allocate $50 million to expand American broadcasts and get around Internet restrictions). Can't see how Mehdi Karroubi's "Mr Khamenei" is a product of Washington's schemes.

1610 GMT: Karroubi Makes It Clear. We've posted an update on our special analysis, with Mehdi Karroubi's speech today bearing out our interpretation. It's not only that he challenged both the Government and the Supreme Leader yesterday; he's going to keep doing it.

Get ready for an escalation in the conflict.

1310 GMT: MediaFail of the Day. I've stayed away from the "Western" media coverage of the Karroubi statement, even though a lot of it is still wrong over the recognition of Ahmadinejad: this has been a confusing story and I was well off-the-mark yesterday afternoon.

That said, The Washington Post has screwed up well beyond the norm in this item in its World Digest: "Opposition's Mehdi Karroubi softens stance on Iran's leadership". It condenses an Associated Press story to the basics: "In a major shift, a senior opposition figure announced that he now recognizes Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as the head of Iran's government while standing by his assertions that the presidential election was rigged....Mehdi Karroubi's new position is a retreat from his statements after the June 12 election, when he insisted that Ahmadinejad's government was illegitimate."

The original AP story by Akbar Dareini was muddled and missed important points, such as Karroubi's use of "Mr Khameini"; however, it had key passages such as, "The elder Karroubi deliberately refrained from using the word 'president' in order not to give full legitimacy to Ahmadinejad's administration." Its claim, from Karroubi's son Hossein, that the cleric "believes Ahmadinejad's government was on the verge of collapse" is softened in the World Digest to the opposition is "seeking Ahmadinejad's removal".

1210 GMT: Not Recognising Ahmadinejad. An EA reader reports that German and Swedish media are still dominated by line that Mehdi Karroubi recognised Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as "President", so these related comments from Zahra Rahnavard (see 0640 GMT), the wife of Mir Hossein Mousavi, deserve repetition:

We neither recognise Ahmadinejad’s administration [as legitimate government] nor compromise but we honestly are following on people’s rights and demands....

We have put our hearts as our shields and we are ready for any bullet, attack or assassination.

1030 GMT: Remain Calm, All is Well (with Bonus Cultural Reference). Press TV puts out the reassurance this morning:

Bank Melli Iran (BMI) is the largest bank in Iran and across the Islamic world, considering its total assets of around $54bn, a BMI official says. The total assets of BMI at the end of second quarter of 1388 (September, 2009) have increased to US $59 billion, the head of financial department at BMI, Hojatollah Ghasemi, said Monday, denying reports that the bank is bankrupt.

Ghasemi said that BMI has no debt to Iran's central Bank, adding that the bank has no delay in repaying its international commitments.

Forgive me, but when I read the story, given the recent flurry of rumours of the demise of Iran's banks, I made this cross-cultural jump:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zDAmPIq29ro[/youtube]

0905 GMT: The Mothers of Mourning have called for the immediate release of Parvaneh Maddah-Raad, who has been detained since late December. Maddah-Raad was arrested when she intervened to protest the beating of a young demonstrator at the weekly gather of the Mothers of Mourning in Laleh Park.
0900 GMT: We've posted the audio of Hossein Karroubi, the son of Mehdi Karroubi, talking to BBC Persian about his father's statement.

Also, in response to readers who are asking about the reasons for our current analysis of Karroubi's challenge to the Supreme Leader and Government, we are posting an update on our special analysis.

0734 GMT: The Regime Fights Over Newspaper. Now it appears that Government officials can't even see straight on which publications should be banned. According to Ayande News, Tehran Prosecutor Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi summoned officials of the Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance officials. He declared that he would act against media spreading false news, then criticized the Ministry for arbitrarily banning some of the media while others were openly violating laws by spreading lies and offending top members of the Government and regime.

0730 GMT: On the Economic Front. Not even Press TV tries to spin this news:

Iran's labor and social affairs minister says the country has failed to decrease the jobless rate to below 7 percent due to "the crises and global sanctions."

On Monday, Abdolreza Sheikholeslami told the Fars News Agency that the unemployment rate is about 11 percent.

The Fourth Five-Year Development Plan (2005-2010) had obliged the government to bring the jobless rate to under 7 percent by the end of the plan.

"A seven percent unemployment rate had not been achieved, as a goal, in the Fourth Five-Year Development Plan, due to the crises and global sanctions," Sheikholeslami said, without elaborating.

The Statistics Center of Iran announced that the national unemployment rate rose to 11.3 percent in the third quarter of the calendar year (ended December 21, 2009), up 1.8 percent compared to the previous year.

0640 GMT: Rahnavard on "Legitimacy". Amidst the discussion of Mehdi Karroubi's statement, Mir Hossein Mousavi has been silent. However, his wife, Tehran University academic Zahra Rahnavard, has not.

In an interview with Fereshteh Ghazi, Rahnavard makes clear that Mousavi does not and will not recognise the Ahmadinejad Government.

0635 GMT: Here's one to raise the eyebrows on the international front. The three-day visit to Russia by Saeed Jalili, Secretary of the National Security Council, due to start today, has been postponed "indefinitely".

0630 GMT: Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani's Intervention. We made an error in translation when reporting the cleric's latest criticism of the regime yesterday. His demand of the Government was that it should "prohibit" the bad and undesirable in its actions.

0600 GMT: We will spend today seeing just how important yesterday's Karroubi statement, on Mr Khamenei and the "President", is. That will depend not only on whether Karroubi modifies the declaration or lets it stand but also on the reactions of others. Key participants like Mir Hossein Mousavi have not emerged; perhaps more importantly, there is still confusion and division in the Green movement(s) over Karroubi's move.

Some activists take the line that the statement is a concession, if not to Ahmadinejad by "recognising" him as President, then to the Supreme Leader by acknowledging his legitimacy. That opinion is sometimes linked to the assessment that Karroubi, like the regime, wants to avoid a bloody confrontation on 22 Bahman (11 February). Others, however --- and this is the current EA line, after my initial confusion and mis-interpretation --- see this as a challenge to both Government and Ayatollah Khamenei.

For now, we'll stand by the analysis that we debated and then put out last night, watching for the follow-up --- from Karroubi, from opposition leaders like Mousavi and Mohammad Khatami, from  the regime, and from the Green movement(s) --- today before making any revisions.

UPDATED Iran Special Analysis: What Karroubi's Statement on "Mr Khamenei"/"Head of Government" Means

UPDATE 1555 GMT: Karroubi Clarifies, Repeats, Challenges. From The Flying Carpet Institute, via the Facebook site linked to Mir Hossein Mousavi and Saham News:
Mehdi Karoubi, in a meeting with a group of prominent political figures including some of the leaders of reformist parties said:

“Although today they have shut down newspapers, filtered websites, imprisoned many of our dear friends, closed down the office of [reformist] parties including the Etemade Melli office and even my personal office, although they fired shots at my car, although some are threatening everyday and are insulting Mir Hossein Mousavi, me and the great nation of Iran in every way possible and take our words out of content, but I am firmly announcing that I never compromise over people’s rights and one of the main rights of this nation is their votes that they casted in the ballot boxes while trusting the authorities; and I will be with the people till the very end and will try for holding free elections and eliminating current obstacles."

"I will announce my detailed views regarding the principles of the Islamic Revolution, defending people’s rights and the necessity for holding free elections to the noble nation of Iran soon.”

UPDATE 0900 GMT: Persian2English has published a translation of the Karroubi "clarification" carried on Rah-e-Sabz last night. This was one of the key pieces of evidence behind our analysis, as the Karroubi camp deliberately "fed" this information to a trusted reporter to ensure the widest dissemination:

"It was reported by Fars News, Iran’s official news agency, that Mehdi Karoubi has officially recognized the status of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Mr. Mojtaba Vahedi, advisor for Mehdi Karoubi responded to such claims. Talking to a JARAS reporter, he said: “I talked to Mr. Karoubi and he claims that Mr. Abu-Torabi has uttered some words that are not true.”

According to the advisor, Mr. Karoubi talked in detail about the rigged election. Following his speech, Karoubi explained, “A few reporters gathered around and asked a few questions. I told them that the government has been sworn in and has the responsibility to respond to the people’s needs. In the same interview I stressed that there has been a rigging in the election and I stand by my words. I am not so whimsy to retreat because of insults and threats. But people have daily needs that the residing government needs to respond to. I also told an English paper that they can rest assured that Ahmadinejad’s government will not last four years.”

Karoubi’s last words were: “My words are the words of the nation: where is our vote?”

--
EA staff had a conference late last night to go over all the information we have --- from websites and sources inside Iran --- on Mehdi Karroubi's statement, reflecting on the Presidential election and his acceptance of Mr Ahmadinejad as the "head of the government of the regime" because it had been decreed by "Mr Khamenei".

We are watching for further developments today and may revise our analysis, however, for now, here is our reading:

Iran Snap Analysis: The Karroubi and Khatami Manoeuvres
The Latest from Iran (26 January): Now for the Follow-Up….
The Latest from Iran (25 January): Who Makes A Move Today?

1. KARROUBI HAS TAKEN A STAND AGAINST THE "PRESIDENT" AND THE SUPREME LEADER

We are treating the statement put out on Karroubi's website, Saham News, as the cleric's primary line. (We note the interviews given by Hossein Karroubi to a series of reporters, including Radio Farda, BBC Persian, and Associated Press, but there are ambiguities and some confusion in how those interviews are being written up.) This is the key line:

Due to the fact that Mr Khamenei has 'confirmed/given legal validity to the decree which stated that Ahmadinejad has been elected, for this reason, I consider him [Mr Ahmadinejad] to be the 'head of the government of this regime'.

Ahmadinejad is not the President and holds his position not by the will of the voters but the pronouncement of Ayatollah Khamenei. He thus does not have legitimacy. (The most important follow-up to the Saham News statement is a story fed to Rah-e-Sabz, in which Karroubi repeated that he stood with the people and said he did not expect Ahmadinejad to last four years.)

And it's not the Supreme Leader but "Mr Khamenei". That is not a slip, because the statement has been unchanged on Saham News for hours. And that is not respect but an insult.

2. DID KARROUBI INTEND TO TAKE THIS STAND?

This is still not clear, given the chain of events. The confusing series of events started when Karroubi spoke with a group of reporters Monday morning. What he did not anticipate was that Fars News, having asked the question whether Karroubi accepted that the June Presidential election was legal, printed his answer as a recognition of Ahmadinejad as "the President". So, in one sense, Hossein Karroubi's series of interviews throughout the day and even the Saham News statement were "damage control", protecting his father against charges that he had sold out to the regime.

"Damage control", however, did not require that Karroubi take his political shots at Mr Khamenei and "the head of the government of the regime". So whether or not the cleric started the morning with a plan for a fight or whether he was bumped into it by the Fars episode, the outcome is the same.

3. THIS HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH THE CHALLENGE OF THE "ESTABLISHMENT WITHIN".

My first attempt at analysis connected the Karroubi manoeuvre with the initiative by Ali Larijani-Mohsen Rezaei-Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf to curb or even topple Ahmadinejad. Just forget I wrote that --- I was wrong.

4. BUT THIS DOES DISTANCE KARROUBI FROM KHATAMI

The interesting sub-plot today has been obvious "clear blue water" between Mehdi Karroubi and Mohammad Khatami. As Saham News was putting out the right line on Karroubi v. Khamenei/Ahmadinejad this afternoon, it was also taking shots at former President Khatami. In particular, Saham News was playing up the story --- which has not been confirmed --- that Khatami had sent a letter to the Supreme Leader seeking reconcilation. What's more, Saham was pressing the point that Khatami had "recognised" the current Government, thus distinguishing his position from that of Karroubi.

Why the divergence? Well, that's a story to be considered over following days. But let's be clear: Mehdi Karroubi is out front on this political challenge.

5. AND MOUSAVI?

But is Karroubi also far ahead of Mir Hossein Mousavi? So far Mousavi has been silent on the day's events, apart from his website Kalemeh reprinting the Saham News statement.

6. COULD EVERYTHING CHANGE?

As we broke up the meeting tonight, an EA correspondent said, "You know, Karroubi may well have another statement out when we wake up in the morning." Indeed, he could, even to the point of issuing another clarification that withdraws/modifies his "Mr Khamenei" position.

But, at the least, we can't see Karroubi withdrawing his now sustained condemnation --- sometimes explicit, sometimes in a bit of coding, as today --- of President Ahmadinejad. At most, he separates Mr Khamenei from his criticism.

So pull back all those headlines that came out earlier today (and are still in some "Western" publications). This is not recognition of the President. This is, to adopt a US term, "dis-respecting".

It's not a question of if, but how far, Karroubi wants to push it.

The Latest from Iran (25 January): Who Makes A Move Today?

2145 GMT: The Karroubi Story. We've worked tonight through the stories, the rumours, and possibilities to post an interim analysis of Mehdi Karroubi's statement today on "Mr Khamenei" and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, "the head of the government of the regime".

2140 GMT: In Case You Missed It. Persian2English reports: "Abolfazl Eslami, former Counselor of the Iranian Embassy in Tokyo, writes that he has decided to join people’s movement in light of the Islamic Republics’ violence and oppression."

1955 GMT: And on the Clerical Front. Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani has renewed his criticism of the regime, asking Iran's leaders to do "nahy az monker" (repent from the bad way).

1945 GMT: Remember the Economic Front? Most of the management of Bank Melli have been replaced.

1935 GMT: We are hoping to have a thorough, on-the-mark analysis, from an EA correspondent with excellent sources, of the Karroubi statement about 2130 GMT. (To be blunt, I got it wrong earlier today, but I think, thanks to a lot of help, we'll have the best possible reading by the end of tonight.)

NEW Iran Special Analysis: What Karroubi’s Statement on “Mr Khamenei”/”Head of Government” Means
NEW Iran Snap Analysis: The Karroubi and Khatami Manoeuvres
NEW Iran: Listening to Rumours, Whispers, and Shouts
Iran and Israel: The Start of a Beautiful Friendship?
Iran Analysis: Should the Greens Be Waiting for Economic Collapse?
UPDATED Iran: The Plot Against President Ahmadinejad
The Latest from Iran (24 January): Watching Carefully

Meanwhile, another piece of evidence to put into the mix, indicating that Karroubi is not recognising Ahmadinejad as President but merely as a "selected leader". He told Rah-e-Sabz that he stood by his comments, but the people have problems which must be solved by the government, which is responsible for the situation. He repeated a statement he had made to an English newspaper: "I am convinced that Ahmadinejad will not stay for four years."

1610 GMT: Going after Revolution. Amidst all the confusion over the Karroubi statement, a blunter political move by another cleric:

Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi, who is close to the President, has made another attempt to pressure Hashemi Rafsanjani's authority. Speaking in Qom, he said that he was "shocked" at Rafsanjani's recent speech where the former President offered his view of the political situation "according to [Rafsanjani's] experience". Yazdi snapped, "Is this more important than the Supreme Leader's experience?"

Yazdi urged/warned Rafsanjani to "come back to the breast of the Revolution and the Supreme Leader", criticising Rafsanjani's ambiguity: "Your speech is not just two sides; it is many sides."

1515 GMT: We have posted a major update to our earlier analysis of the Karroubi and Khatami moves today, taking into account corrected and new information about the Karroubi statement.

1500 GMT: Hasan Ahmadian, a leading member of Mir Hossein Mousavi's campaign, was reportedly released on bail of $500,000 last night.

1300 GMT: We have posted an urgent snap analysis of the important --- if true --- developments of the Karroubi letter accepting Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as President (see 1135 GMT) and Mohammad Khatami's letter to the Supreme Leader: "Has a Deal Been Struck?"

1230 GMT: Watch-It Warning of the Day. Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi strikes the pose --- insulting senior figures and the head of the three branches of the Iran Government (the President, Speaker of Parliament, head of Judiciary) is a crime. So don't do it.

Doulatabadi also commented on other matters, including the 5 Ashura detainees tried this weeks on charges of "mohareb"/war against God and threats to national security (verdicts will be issued soon) and the murder of Professor Ali-Mohammadi (enquiry continues).

1135 GMT: A Vote of Legitimacy. Well, you can now top our morning analysis of Rumours with this report:

Iranian opposition leader Mehdi Karroubi who had refused to accept the re-election of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, now recognises the hardliner as the country's "president", Karroubi's son told AFP (Agence France Presse) on Monday.

Hossein Karroubi quoted his father as saying: "I am still of the same belief that the election was unhealthy and massively rigged. But since the (Supreme) leader (Ayatollah Ali Khamenei) endorsed (Ahmadinejad's victory), I believe that he is the head of the government, meaning he is the president."

....Fars (News Agency) asked the opposition leader whether he now acknowledges Ahmadinejad as the president.

The ex-speaker of parliament, who came fourth in the disputed June 12 presidential election, replied: "I still maintain that there were problems (in the election), but with regard to your question, I should say that I recognise the president."

1130 GMT: Far-from-Academic Losses. An EA reader follows up on the story of the apparent firing of Professor Abbas Kazemi by Tehran University for his attendance at the funeral of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri (0655 GMT):

If the news is true about Kazemi being fired from U of T, that is a sad thing. Kazemi wrote The Sociology of Religious Intellectuals in Iran, which I have sitting on my table right in front of me.

1120 GMT: The Meaning of Investment. An EA reader pulls me up on my morning jab at Press TV (0755 GMT) over its story that Iran is seeking foreign investment:

On the foreign investment caps being lifted, you are missing the big story. When (President) Khatami tried to do similar things in the late 1990s, the Guardian Council and fellow conservatives completely attacked the idea, saying it was selling out the country's resources. This is another example of how Ahmadinejad is actually more of an economic liberal than Khatami (who was never really sure about economic liberalism and it was not his forte) ever was.

1110 GMT: Your Latest Plot --- Greens, the CIA, and Currency. Kayhan newspaper is none too amused that Iran's Central Bank has backed away from declaring "invalid" any banknotes with Green slogans and/or markings.

For you see, the marking of the banknotes is clearly a CIA plot, based on the ideas of Robert Helvey, a retired Army officer and associate of Gene Sharp at Harvard University. Sharp is Iran's bete noire when it comes to thoughts of "velvet revolution", and Helvey also got a mention in the Tehran trials of August.

0755 GMT: More Morning Fun from Press TV. Apparently Shamsoddin Hosseini, Iran's Economy and Finance Minister, says there will no limit on foreign investment in Iranian industrial or mineral sectors under the 5th Development Plan (2010-2015) proposed by Presdent Ahmadinejad: ”The Iranian government will be trying to remove any obstacle in the financial domain by the end of the fifth development plan."

With respect, given reports that foreign investment fell up to 96 percent between March 2008 and March 2009 (in other words, before the current political crisis), I am a bit surprised Mr Hosseini did not declare that investors would be met at Imam Khomeini Airport with flowers and cases of Parsi Cola.

0735 GMT: Press TV's Morning Spin. The Iranian state outlet offers this dramatic story, "China attacks US for online warfare in Iran":

A Chinese Communist Party editorial says the election unrest in Iran was an example of US 'naked political scheming' behind a facade of free speech....The People's Daily editorial said the US had launched a "hacker brigade" and used social media such as Twitter to spread rumors and create trouble in Iran.

Interesting that Press TV doesn't seem to notice a possible motive for China's apparent defense of Iranian sovereignty and legitimacy --- perhaps theirreporters were looking at Twitter when US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton made her high-profile speech last week calling for Internet freedom and focusing on China as the Number One Test Case.

0710 GMT: We've put our first updates in a separate analysis on political and economic developments.

0650 GMT: The Academic Fight over the Funerals. Norooz claims Professor Abbas Kazemi, a member of the School of Communications at Tehran University, has been fired for attending the funeral of Grand Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri last month.

More than 110 academics and scholars around the world, including Noam Chomsky and Ramin Jahanbegloo, have called for an independent enquiry into the murder of Tehran University professor Massoud Ali-Mohammadi.

0645 GMT: Strikes and Firings. The Flying Carpet Institute reports that five workers at Rasoul Auto Company have been dismissed after strikes over disputed back pays. The employees' wages for November and December have not been settled.

0615 GMT: Sunday's Best Story? Rah-e-Sabz claims that President Ahmadinejad handed over his budget proposal to Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, the CD was blank. (Cue all the metaphors about Ahmadinejad's economic plans.) Apparently Ahmadinejad was "quickly ordered" to transfer the proposal that does exist to Parliament.

0530 GMT: We've moved our overnight updates to a separate entry, "Listening to Rumours, Whispers, and Shouts".

Iran: Listening to Rumours, Whispers, and Shouts

Of course, there has never been a phase in this post-election conflict which has been one of clarity, even over the basic demand --- expressed in the march of hundreds of thousands on 15 June --- to overturn the result of the Presidential election. This phase, however, has been particularly complex and often confusing, with manoeuvres and statements coming from all directions outside and inside the Iranian establishment.

Mehdi Karroubi's Etemade Melli party tried to put out a clear signal yesterday that the fight, both over the election and the direction of the Iranian system, goes on. Using the symbolic event of Karroubi's visit to the family of Ali Reza Beheshti, the detained chief advisor of Mir Hossein Mousavi, the party's Saham News website declared that the regime had been ignoring the rights of people for years and now did not understand the meaning of the arrests of the arrests of "sons and daughters of the Revolution". (Ali Reza Beheshti is the son of the late Ayatollah Mohammad Beheshti, a key figure in the 1979 Revolution who founded Iran's judiciary.) It again cited Karroubi's case on detainee abuses, which he has pressed since July, with the example of Kahrizak Prison. (English-language summary of the statement)



Responding to a hard-line newspaper's claim that Karroubi had been "asleep" and only just woken to realise he had been manipulated by foreign agents, Etemade Melli declared:

Do you want to know who else is asleep and when they should wake up? Hold a free election or give permission for a free and safe gathering for the supporters of Karroubi and Mousavi then watch and see how people will wake you up. So it is necessary that you know that Karroubi is standing firm and confident and has proofs for all his remarks.

Etemade Melli's statement has received surprisingly attention so far outside Iran, however, in part because of the chatter over the country's economic situation. The rumours that Iran's banking sector is on the point of collapse only strengthened on Sunday, fuelled by news of individual cases of bank shutdowns and conflict. Peyke Iran, for example,featured the story of a bank in the Sadeghiyeh district of Tehran, where security forces had to disperse crowds who were demanding (unsuccessfully) the funds from their accounts.

The rumours sit, sometimes eerily, alongside other reports that there is no crisis. An EA source from Tehran reports, for example:

One can still write checks for any amount. Also, most people with bank accounts in Iran now have debit cards, and more and more stores are getting little debit card chargers. I paid my phone bill at the government office last week with my debit card. That is not an economy on the brink.

On the political scene, the biggest distraction was the story that Javad Larijani, a key official in Iran's judiciary and brother of Speaker of Parliament Ali and head of Judiciary Sadegh, had used a racial slur when denouncing Barack Obama. The episode overshadowed the important passages in Larijani's speech where he both praised and criticised Hashemi Rafsanjani, apparently in an effort to get the former President to declare his political position over the Ahmadinejad Government (see yesterday's updates).

The Latest from Iran (24 January): Watching Carefully

2200 GMT: And, on the political front, Mehdi Karroubi's Etemade Melli party has issued a statement calling for the holding of a free election and permission to stage demonstrations.

Etemade Melli, via the Saham News website, repeated that Karroubi had the material to back up his accusations of detainee abuse: "It is necessary for you to know that Mr. Karroubi is standing firm and tall and has evidence for all his comments." it added in an address to the country's regime.

2145 GMT: Little hard news tonight, although rumours about Iran's economic situation continue to swirl. There is also nothing to clarify an increasingly complex domestic political contest.

One news item catches the eye, however:

A Russian banking delegation, headed by the deputy governor of the country's Central Bank, is due to visit Tehran on Monday, the Iranian envoy to Moscow announced on Saturday.

NEW Iran and Israel: The Start of a Beautiful Friendship?
Iran Analysis: Should the Greens Be Waiting for Economic Collapse?
Iran Discussion: How Would Ahmadinejad Fall? (And What Would Come Next?)
UPDATED Iran: The Plot Against President Ahmadinejad
The Latest from Iran (23 January): Looking for Clues

"Deputy governor of Russia's Central Bank Melnikov and a number of officials from the other Russian banks will pay a visit to Iran on Monday in a bid to resolve banking issues and facilitate exchange and economic and trade activities between the two countries," Seyed Mahmoud Reza Sajjadi told [Fars News Agency].

The Russian delegation is scheduled to meet Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Iran Pourmohammadi and managing directors of a number of Iranian banks to discuss ways to expand banking relations between the two states.

1745 GMT: Your Economic Update. Reuters has a useful English-language summary of President Ahmadinejad's budget presentation to the Iranian Parliament today. Kalemeh reports that the Central Bank has extended the deadline on the validity of banknotes marked with Green slogans, effectively allowing their circulation for the indefinite future. And Persian2English carries claims of difficulties with banks in Isfahan.

1535 GMT: Ayande News keeps up its recent jabbing at the Government and regime, asking why the Supreme Leader has SL dedicated 21 speeches to post-election events if this is not a crisis.

1530 GMT: Rezaei's Latest Manoeuvre. A valued EA correspondent reports on the latest speech by Presidential candidate (and possible Ahmadinejad opponent) Mohsen Rezaei, given to students in Gilan.

Rezaei, as his recent Press TV interview, maintained his distance from the opposition by emphasising that he made his complaints about the Presidential election within the law. At the same time he complained, "We still don’t know how to face the opposition group," and noted, "In some other countries, police keeps the opposition safe rather than attacking them." Rezaei also repeated his criticism of the "very weak" Ahmadinejad Government.

And a curious post-script: news of Rezaei's speech was on Tabnak, the website linked to him, but was removed after a few minutes.

1520 GMT: Head-Spinner. OK, I'm going to have this one to smarter people to interpret. According to Kalemeh, Davoud Ahmadinejad, the brother of the President and former head of the Investigation Office of Presidency, has labeled Presidential aide and ally Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai as an Israeli agent.

1510 GMT: Bank Issues. Peyke Iran supports Internet chatter with the story that shots have been fired at Bank Melli in the city of Ram Hormuz in southwestern Iran.

1340 GMT: The State of the Detainees. Fereshteh Ghazi has published a lengthy and wide-ranging article on those arrested after the election, including the detentions of family members of activists, the lack of information on Ashura and post-Ashura detainees for families and lawyers , and the health of prisoners such as former Foreign Minister Ebrahim Yazdi.

1210 GMT: Monica Luisa Macovei, a Romanian member of the European Parliament, has publicly declared in the Parliament, "I have decided to use most of my time for this intervention to highlight the names of people who, reportedly, are in detention in Iran, some convicted to death, for criticising the political regime or for defending civil rights."

Macovei mentioned the cases of five Ashura detainees charged with "mohareb" (war against God), the 33 Mothers of Mourning and supporters recently detained (almost all have been released), arrested members of the Committee of Human Rights Reporters, and other students who have been imprisoned. She asked, "What is the Commission or the Council going to do for the release of those imprisoned for political purposes? What funding does the Commission provide to human rights NGOs working on Iran?"

1150 GMT: The Standard Warning. The head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, has again warned of those seeking to create divisions within Iranian society, announcing that the Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance will be more vigilant in monitoring and punishing publications over false information.

1140 GMT: Blowing Smoke. Unsurprising, given the political and economic contests around him, that President Ahmadinejad would put out this line today: he will have good news within days about Iran being able to produce enriched uranium of 20 percent (versus current levels of 3-4 percent), and this will make all in the Iranian nation very happy.

1025 GMT: For My Next Trick. It will be interesting to see if President Ahmadinejad can pull this off: amidst fears of inflation, he has proposed a rise of almost 25 percent in the Government budget, from $279 billion to $368 billion.

0910 GMT: We've posted a Sunday Special which we hope brings both news and a smile, "Iran and Israel: The Start of A Beautiful Friendship?".

0840 GMT: Ahmadinejad's Budget. The President has presented his budget proposals to Iran's Parliament, the Majlis. He summarised, "Emphasizing a reduction of dependence on oil revenues and an increase of non-oil revenues, with a focus on industry, agriculture and housing —these are among the main attributes of the bill," before making his pitch, "I hope that the bill will be passed with the cooperation of all lawmakers who solve the problems of the country and pave the way for the development of Islamic Iran."

Now the fun and bargaining begin, as lawmakers have ten days to present comments about the bill to the technical commissions of the Majlis.

0820 GMT: Choose a Side, Rafsanjani? Hashemi Rafsanjani's general statement on Saturday, which we analysed in our updates, has not been enough to satisfy some who want him to "choose sides" in the conflict.

The bigger news, however, however, is that the battle may not be over whether Rafsanjani backs the Supreme Leader --- the former President offered allegiance yesterday, albeit with coded reservations --- but whether he is for or against President Ahmadinejad. And there it appears that Rafsanjani has some potential allies pushing him towards the latter position.

For example, the "hard-line" newspaper Kayhan has renewed its attacks on Rafsanjani with a Sunday editorial. What is just as significant, however, is that the news of those attacks is published in Khabar Online, linked to Ali Larijani, possibly to blunt them.

Khabar, reporting from Mehr News, also features a speech by Javad Larijani, a high-ranking official in the Judiciary and the brother of Ali (Speaker of Parliament) and Sadegh (head of Judiciary), praising Rafsanjani as a "great personality" but noting his three mistakes: 1) founding the Kargozaran party in the mid-1990s; 2) running for elections in 2005; 3) making ambiguous statements about Ahmadinejad during those elections.

Analysis? Come off the fence, Hashemi, and do so in support of others, not at the head of the movement.

0815 GMT: Persian2English has published a set of pictures from the "birthday ceremony" at Neda Agha Soltan's grave yesterday.

0810 GMT: Human Rights Activists in Iran reports that Mehdi Jalil-Khani, a writer, literary critic, and journalist from Zanjan, was arrested last week after a Ministry of Intelligence raid.

0805 GMT: We're be looking for further development on both the political and economic fronts today, separating facts from rumours as the pressure seems to build on President Ahmadinejad.

We have a special analysis which offers some caution, as an EA correspondent asks, "Should The Greens Be Waiting for Economic Collapse?"