The Latest from Iran (13 July): Challenge Renewed

NEW Iran Video: Sohrab Arabi Funeral (13 July)
Iran Opposition Alert: Friday is the Day?
The Habitat Effect: Twitter, Spammers, and #iranelection
The Latest on Iran (12 July): When Is Normal Not Normal?

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2000 GMT: If Ayatollah Montazeri is suffering from dementia, with his words written by someone else (see 1400 GMT), he's hiding it well. As expected, he has issued a statement criticising the Chinese Government's treatment of Uighur Muslims and adding, "Silence from other governments, particularly Muslim governments has caused great surprise and regret."

1910 GMT: Media Twist of the Day. Kayhan newspaper,  a staunch supporter of the Ahmadinejad Government, has been summoned to court to answer charges of "disseminating lies intended to poison public opinion".

Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mohammad Khatami have also lodged defamation charges against Iran newspaper.

1900 GMT: Catching up with news reported earlier today: about 200 faculty of the medical school of the University of Tehran have protested the arrest of political activists. Dr. Jila Marsoosi, a faculty member and the wife of detained politician Saeed Hajjarian, also a member of this faculty ddressed the crowd.

1800 GMT: Now, This is Intriguing. Part of the intrigue is in the report on Press TV's website. Habibollah Asgaroladi, a senior member of the Islamic Coalition Party, has described the formation of a new political party by Mir Hossein Mousavi as "favorable", saying, "Establishing a party to voice one's ideas and political perceptions is a wise move."

Asgaroadi and his party are "principlists", loosely defined as advancing the principles of the Isamlic Revolution and falling in between the "conservative" and "reformist" camps.

That makes his endorsement of Mousavi eyebrow-raising. But the other part of the intrigue is that the report comes via Press TV. That's right, the same State media outlet that has been anxious to downfall the political legimitacy of a Mousavi-led campaign.

Hmmm....

1405 GMT: More jitters. Deutsche Welle reports that Hossein Fadaei Ashtiani, the head of "Society Dedicated to the Islamic Revolution", has said, "One of the results of the elections was a distinction between those who are real fundamentalists and those who claim to be fundamentalists...[it has] been made clear thar some people claiming to be fundamentalists are exhibiting non-fundamentalist behavior". The article links Ashtiani's statement to other "conservative" disquiet, notably Mohsen Rezaei's declaration (which is now being publicised widely) of a six-point programme for electoral resolution.

1400 GMT: The regime is looking very jittery today. A reader sends in this information:

It seems that [Ayatollah] Montazeri [who issued a fatwa on Saturday denouncing the Government] is considered to be a real threat by Ahmadinejad et. al. The pro-Ahmadinejad news site 'Rajanews' has claimed that Montazeri is suffering from some sort of dementia. Rajanews also claims that all fatwas said to be from Montazeri are in fact written by Mohsen Kadivar. The reformist daily Parleman-news has published a statement by Montazeri's son in which categorically denies these charges by asserting that Montazeri is in great health and all Fatwas and statements are issued under his direct supervision. In fact his son concluded that Montazeri is in the process of issueing a statement regarding the plight of the Chinese muslims.

1350 GMT: It is being reported that Mohsen Hajjarian, son of detained politician Saeed Hajjarian, has been released after his arrest yesterday.

1345 GMT: We've now posted video from the funeral of Sohrab Arabi, showing hundreds of demonstrators holding up his photograph and chanting.

1130 GMT: A side story, but an important one. The Iranian Government's effusive support of China's handling of the Uighur crisis in the northwest of the country has been criticised not only by opposition groups but by high-ranking clerics such as Ayatollah Lotfollah Safi Golpaygani and Ayatollah Nasser Makerem-Shirazi, who have objected to the repression of Muslims.

1000 GMT: Unsurprisingly, there is a heated media battle within Iran, one example of which is the rumor (noted in the blog on "Friday is the Day?") that this week's leadership of Tehran prayers will be the last for former President Hashemi Rafsanjani. Pro-Government publications are trying to portray the opposition as weak and divided.

The strategy is not working smoothly, however. At least one important cleric, Ayatollah Lotfollah Safi Golpaygani, has criticised State-run media for issuing statements in his name of support for the Government. He denounced the Islamic Republic News Agency as a purveyor of falsehoods.

0815 GMT: Ferehsteh Ghazi ("iranbaan"), writing for Rooz Online, claims that families of detainees are being threatened by the judiciary. They are told that, if they speak about the plight of their relatives, news will be withheld from them and the detainees "will be held longer".

0810 GMT: We're awaiting news on whether the funeral of Sohrab Arabi, the 19-year-old killed on 15 June by Basiji gunfire but whose body was only released to the family this weekend, was the occasion for public demonstrations.

0800 GMT: One exception to the item below about the absence of the "mainstream" media from the Iran story. The excellent Borzou Daragahi of the Los Angeles Times, now reporting from Beirut, recognises the potential significance of this Friday's Rafsanjani appearance at Tehran prayers. Daragahi has also picked up on the statement of the head of Ayatollah Khamenei's office of university affairs, Mohammad Mohammadian (see 0615 GMT), "We cannot order public opinion to get convinced. Certain individuals are suspicious about the election result, and we have to shed light on the realities and respond to their questions."

0703 GMT: Perhaps needless to say, the Iran story is now one for the "new" media. State-run Press TV prefers the image of legitimacy for the Government, covering the arrival of Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki in Egypt for the meeting of the Non-Aligned Movement. (President Ahmadinejad has still not been received by a foreign leader since his summit in Moscow days after the election.)

CNN catches up with the story that the family of Shorab Arabi, killed by Basiji gunfire during the mass demonstration on 15 June, only learned of his death in recent days. Al Jazeera English and BBC English, focused on Britain's political and military difficulties in Afghanistan, have disappeared.

0700 GMT: Regime Feel-Good Story of the Day. Javan newspaper, linked to the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps, has been explaining that it is very good for detained politician Saeed Hajjarian to be in Evin Prison, as he can get the best medical care there rather than at home.

0615 GMT: After a quiet period since last Thursday's 18 Tir protests, there is a sense this morning --- based on movements from both sides --- that the political challenge is about to resume, with private and public protests converging.

The shift is reflected in two stories. The first, which we put together last evening, is of the linking of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani's re-appearance at Friday prayers in Tehran with a mass march to the site.

The second concerns signs from the regime that it may be looking for some limited compromises to meet the political and legal demands of the opposition. Signals come not only from Friday's call at Tehran prayers by Ayatollah Kashani for a Parliamentary review of the election process but also from a statement by the Supreme Leader's representative for universities that "the recent protests in society are not of a malicious nature", criticism at Friday prayers in Qom by Ayatollah Reza Ostadi of the system's handling of public concerns, and a declaration by the judicial commission that all protesters will be freed within 10 days. It is also worthwhile watching the reaction to Presidential Mohsen Rezaei's six-point proposal for a political settlement, which may (or may not) have emerged after discussions with members of the Iranian leadership.

Beyond these emerging manoeuvres is a fatwa from Ayatollah Montazeri, the one-time successor to Ayatollah Montazeri, calling the Supreme Leader "illegitimate", as he is working against religion, and asking the public to challenge and, if necessary, pay a heavy price to remedy the situation. We briefly reported on the fatwa on Saturday but discussion of it only took off yesterday. We are cautious about the significance, as Montazeri has been ostracised and put under house arrest for many years, but others see vital reinforcement for the opposition movement. Tehran Bureau has a useful summary in English.

With the "mainstream" media now almost silent, the political battle is being played out in the "new" media. One of the weekend flutters was over an alleged "cyber-attack" on Twitter, with the important "hashtag" #iranelection overwhelmed at times by spam messages for products and get-rich-quick schemes. EA's Mike Dunn has untangled the story, which appears to be one more of crass attempts by marketers and schemers to make money rather than deliberate political sabotage.

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The Latest from Iran (10 July): What Next?

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1800 GMT: Mehdi Karroubi's letter to the head of the Iranian judiciary, Ayatollah Hashemi Shahroudi, has been published on a Facebook page of Mohammad Khatami: "All protesting the election results agree with the original system, but its defenders have confiscated the electoral process."

1455 GMT: The mysterious of the "Basiji" audio tape (0825 and 1130 GMT): A very helpful reader has listened to four hours of the tapes and offers the following: "Each [of the four] segments is about an hour and on different aspect of protests and how to understand and neutralize it. The audio seems to be from the Revolutionary Guard who criticize the Basiji for ineffectiveness and lack of training. The 4th segment in the audio is creepy and openly talks about why ppeople are talking about a coup, psychological operations, ideology, etc."

Another reader adds, "This seems leaked audio from immediately after 1999 raids [on the 18 Tir] demonstrations. Still, given ranking figures supposedly in recordings, worth examining." The first reader, however, points us to a document, "Mechanisms for Suppression of Mobilization", which seems to correspond to aspect of the audio discussion.

(Again, our gratitude to both sources for assistance above and beyond the call of duty.)

1445 GMT: Citing a "security source", Lara Setrakian of ABC News (US) says that President Ahmadinejad's national broadcast on Tuesday was hindered by blackouts, caused by deliberate power surges from protestors' use of electrical appliances.

1430 GMT: Ayatollah Montazeri, the one-time successor to Ayatollah Khomeini, has issued another fatwa condemning the violence used against protestors. Any Government sanctioning such violence is "un-Islamic".

1230 GMT: Al Arabiya is reporting that Tehran's police chief has declared half of the city a "crisis zone".

1130 GMT: Correction. Our latest information is that the leaked audio of Basiji conversation (0825 GMT) is analysis and training in security methods.

1025 GMT: Election Past, Engagement Present. In the first clear sign that the post-election conflict is pushing the regime towards discussions with the "West" on Iran's nuclear programme and other matters of concern, Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki has told a news conference that Iran will present a package of "political, security, and international issues" for consideration: ""The package can be a good basis for talks with the West. The package will contain Iran's stances on political, security and international issues."

0935 GMT: The Silence is Broken. Mehdi Karroubi has issued a strong statement this morning, calling on the head of the Iranian judiciary, Ayatollah Shahroudi, to release detained protesters: "Constitutionalism and sovereignty of the people are opposed to tyranny."

0825 GMT: A lot of chatter this morning about a leaked audio, allegedly of Basiji discussing plans to raid university dormitories.

0800 GMT: More on the arrest of Iranian-American scholar Kian Tajbakhsh (see yesterday's updates). The important link: Tajbakhsh was one of four US citizens detained in 2007 by the Iranian Government, the most prominent of whom was Haleh Esfiandiari. He was released after four months.

So the Iranian regime is still pursuing --- for public consumption, from their suspicions, or both --- the idea of a "velvet revolution" backed by US groups and possibly the American government.

0715 GMT: A reader tips us off to a development which we missed yesterday: according to the German news service Deutsche Welle, the 27-nation European Union has suspended all visas or visa extensions for Iranian diplomats and their families.

0630 GMT: A very quiet start to the day, with no breaking news.

The question we raised yesterday, "What next?", after the 18 Tir protests on Thursday, still hangs in the air. The only visible protests were small gatherings of the families of detainees in several locations in Tehran. Not a public word from figures such as Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mohammad Khatami. Former President Hashemi Rafsanjani maintaining a mysterious silence. And the regime took a breather as well: beyond Ayatollah Kashani's relatively low-key address at Tehran prayers, the headline pronouncement was "a 50,000-strong special constable-like force called 'honorary police officers' to provide assistance to police support units".

There was one statement of note. Ayatollah Hashim Hashim-Zadeh Hareesi, a member of the Assembly of Experts, declared that people had started to distrust the system because of the election process. The government needed to restore people’s trust to prevent more serious problems. In itself, that statement could complement, rather than challenge, Ayatollah Kashani's request to the Iranian Parliament to review the electoral law and the Guardian Council's promise of a report on the election.

Press TV takes a look outside, "Obama ends G8 with warning to Iran". BBC English, whose coverage of Iran has almost collapsed, also devotes its limited attention to the G8 summit. CNN briefly refers to the arrest of academic Kian Tajbakhsh, primarily because he has American citizenship.

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LATEST Video: The 18 Tir Protests (9 July)

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2155 GMT: Fancy a laugh? Spend a few minutes with President Ahmadinejad as he, and his brightly-coloured charts, propose the reform of the Iranian military back to 331 B.C.

Or, if you prefer a more serious but high-quality end to the evening, check out Al Jazeera's documentary inside the Iranian protests, filled with new footage on the early days of the post-election conflict.

1835 GMT: The International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran reports that academic Kian Tajbakhsh was arrested on Thursday night. Tajbakhsh is a specialist in local government reform, urban planning, public health, and social policy who has taught at both American and Iranian universities.

1830 GMT: A new website, "The Rooftop Project", is trying to compile a present a full record of the nightly "Allahu Akhbar" (God is Great) protests from just before the election to the present. We've posted a note and sample footage in a separate entry.

1810 GMT: A lull in developments inside Iran, so EA's Ali Yenidunya has looked at developments elsewhere, "It’s not the statement of the G8 Summit [on the Iranian nuclear programme] that poses the questions over future relations with Iran. Those are in the post-summit positions now being considered in Washington and Paris, not to mention Moscow and Beijing.

1510 GMT: And Your Latest New Media Advance. A reader alerts us to the launch of "IranianYouTube.com".

1500 GMT: Foreign Intrigue Story of the Day. Fars News Agency says a BBC recording studio was discovered in one of Mir Hossein Mousavi's campaign offices.

1420 GMT: Here's Your Concession? Press TV summarises Ayatollah Kashani's address at Friday prayers. It does not begin with "foreign enemies", the news is Kashani's assertion that "a parliamentary revision of the presidential election law is needed to prevent post-vote unrest in the future".

Press TV implies, however, that Kashani was not giving way to "Green" critics of the Mousavi-Karroubi-Khatami hue; instead, it refers to "Tehran's mayor, Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf,...the first to propose the revision of the electoral code of conduct in Iran".

1220 GMT: Friday prayers at the University of Tehran were led, as had been rumoured earlier this week, by Ayatollah Mohammad Emami Kashani. We're still trying to get information on the content of the address.

1145 GMT: We've been mired in the reading of some very dubious analysis of Iran. To "celebrate" the occasion, I've posted a separate blog, "Getting Iran (Loudly) Wrong".

1100 GMT: Collateral Damage. Reports that the British Embassy in Tehran has not issued any visas since 28 June. Those affected include entrants into British universities this autumn.

1045 GMT: A reader offers another valuable link, Sabz Films, for videos to add to our own collection.

1000 GMT: The Ups and Downs of Iran-Watching. The excellent Juan Cole both misses and hits this morning.

The "miss" is his too-easy recitation of the Associated Press overview of the 18 Tir protests, which repeat (and may have launched) the unsupported figure of 2000-3000 protesters. (To be fair, Cole does note, "What AP does not say on is that numerous small demonstrations are reported to have taken place all over the country, including in the southwestern city of Shiraz and elsewhere.")

His big hits are a good collection of videos and this story, which I have not seen elsewhere, from the US Government's Open Source Center:

Alef and Peiknet noted on 8 July that there is no information on the whereabouts of . . .[Shahaboddin] Metaji, head of Tehran Refinery. He was arrested several days ago and taken to an unknown location.

Metaji's colleagues, according to the report, said he was arrested because his family was chanting "Allah-O-Akbar" (God is Great) on the roof of their homes as a sign of protest to last month's presidential election results. His employees reportedly said: "The officials are trying to create fear among us, but that will not help. Our chanting has not stopped and will not stop.

In one of his visits, (Iranian President Mahmud) Ahmadinezhad told one of the oil officials to use big tankers instead of barrels when exporting petroleum. The employees couldn't believe how uninformed he is. The employees of the oil industry are angry because hundreds of small and big energy projects are now suspended, and now the employees are counting the seconds to exit this crisis. The structure of the oil industry is very much against Ahmadinezhad.

0800 GMT: The information from "citizen journalists" has been compiled in a new "underground" newspaper, which is well above ground on the Internet.

0720 GMT: After a near-shutdown of video out of Iran in the last two weeks, we were overwhelmed yesterday by the claimed footage of the 18 Tir protests. We've put up a selection of the best footage, but for even more coverage, we recommend the YouTube channel of "peive17" and Fintan Dunne.

0645 GMT: #BBCFail? The BBC, the target of the Iranian Government for its foreign evil after the election, faces a new set of critics this morning. Opposition activists are questioning why BBC Persian gave so little coverage to the demonstrations yesterday.

Can't confirm that lack of content; however, the BBC's main website hasn't bothered to update its Iran story since 1700 GMT yesterday and, like CNN, offers the bland headline, "Iran police tear gas protesters".

0530 GMT: It may seem callous to say this, after the success of the 18 Tir protests on Thursday (see our final updates), but the opposition challenge already faces the challenge of "And Now?".

Unless all the reports and videos are lies, the turnout in Tehran was far bigger than the "hundreds" declared initially by news agencies like Reuters. It was a question of where you looked: if eyes stared at the centre of Enqelab (Revolution) Square (or if they worked for Iran's Press TV), they saw an effective lockdown by security forces, with only a scattering of demonstrators being prevented from assembling. If the gaze widened, however, there were protests in squares, avenues, and roads across the city.

The size of gatherings outside Tehran is unknown, however (at present, I have seen only one claimed video, a small protest in Rasht that we posted, and reports are sketchy and unconfirmed), and defenders of the regime will argue that those who showed up in the capital are not representative of Iran's majority.News outlets like CNN have missed the political significance of the challenge, focusing inside on "Iranian forces disperse protesters with batons, tear gas". So, fairly or unfairly, the challenge will now fall on the politicians and clerics: what moves do they make to sustain the momentum of yesterday?

The mirror-image question can be put to the Iranian Government. It will be hard to deny that, in Tehran at least, there is still an opposition movement of some significance. So matters have not been closed off by the Guardian Council's "recount" of the Presidential vote, the threats of tough action from ayatollahs close to the Supreme Leader and commanders of the Revolutionary Guard, and certainly not the latest speech of President Ahmadinejad.

A possible response may come at Friday prayers at Tehran University. We're still waiting for confirmation of the leader, but let's just say that former President Hashemi Rafsanjani (rumoured to have withdrawn his name) will not fill the required role of a firm speech that all has been resolved.

Iran: How Big Were the 18 Tir Protests?

The Latest from Iran (10 July): What Next?

The Latest from Iran (18 Tir/9 July): Day of Reckoning?
LATEST Video: The 18 Tir Protests (9 July)

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We're not certain about the extent of the marches in Tehran yesterday (and, to be honest, I think the symbolic significance of the show of opposition outweighs any number), but others are trying to establish the size of the rallies.

CNN's assertion of 2,000 to 3,000 appears to be based on little more than a scattering of information and has not been updated for many hours. The New York Times, from either caution or an inability to establish what is happening, sticks with "thousands".

Far more insight, and possibly accuracy, comes from the "alternative" media on the Internet. Fintan Dunne offers a "guesstimate", based on videos, reports, and a knowledge of Tehran's geography, of 25,000. Josh Shahryar's "Green Brief", with an excellent summary of the day's events, puts out a figure of 35,000 in Tehran and, with less apparent support, "slightly more than twice as much...all over the country". (Thanks to Shahryar for the note he just sent me, clarifying that he means a total of more than 70,000 protesters across Iran, including the numbers in Tehran.)

Shahryar offers the valuable information, if true:

Large protests were fully confirmed in Ahvaz, Mashhad, Rasht, Isfahan, Tabriz, Sari, Hamadan, Babol, Kerman, Dezfol and Shiraz. Reports from Shiraz indicate that the protest there was probably the largest. Isfahan was a close second in terms of the number of people on the streets.

The Latest from Iran (18 Tir/9 July): Day of Reckoning?

The Latest from Iran (10 July): What Next?

LATEST Video: The 18 Tir Protests (9 July)
The Latest from Iran (8 July): The Day Before….?
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Iran: Human Rights Watch Statement on Abuse of Detainees

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1945 GMT: Thanks to Fintan Dunne: my interview with him (summarised at 1910 GMT) is now on-line.

1935 GMT: Tehran Bureau reports on an attack by security forces on the dormitories at Amir Kabir University.

1910 GMT: Earlier this evening, I chatted with Fintan Dunne about the day's events and their political significance. He'll be posting the audio on his blog later, but a couple of points that stood out for me:

1. If a "victory" had to be declared, it went to the opposition challenge. Despite all the Government detentions, threats, and disruptions of communications, thousands (and, while exact numbers cannot be determined, it appears from reports and video footages to be thousands rather than hundreds) gathered at locations across Tehran. The weeks of pressure had not broken the protests.

There were "bonuses" for the opposition as well in a reduction in violence by security forces (for whatever reason), which bolstered confidence amongst demonstrators as the day developed, the lack of any indication that the protesters were sponsored by "foreign enemies", and the first significant video footage in weeks to come out of Tehran. And, while one has to be cautious in generalising from the audio on that footage, there were bold chants of "Ya Hossein, Mir Hossein" and criticism of the Supreme Leader's son, Mojtaba Khamenei.

2. That, however, is only part of the story. There are two halves to the challenge: the public protest and the manoeuvres of the political leadership. So far Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mohammad Khatami have not followed up the marches with statements and indications of next steps.

3. And what of the political manoeuvres within the regime? Already attention moves from today to tomorrow. The issue at Friday prayers at the University of Tehran is not only who will be leading them but who will not. Has former President Hashemi Rafsanjani declined and does that mark, in addition to this week's criticism of the government as "illegitimate" by a political party linked to him, his challenge to President Ahmadinejad and pressure for changes in the Iranian system?

1900 GMT: This, word for word, is Press TV English's current summary of today's demonstrations in their "News in Brief", under the headline "No Major Protests in Tehran": "

A few hundred demonstrators have gathered on the sidewalks in the streets leading to Tehran University. Police used tear gas in one locality to disperse the crowd. Security has been tight in the streets of downtown Tehran Thursday but onlookers did gather to watch the demonstrations.

The website summary puts out a similar line.
1840 GMT: Reports that "Allahu Akhbars" (God is Great) are ringing out from Tehran rooftops.

1730 GMT: CNN's website offers a summary of the account of Iason Athanasiadis, the Anglo-Greek journalist detained for three weeks in Iran.

1710 GMT: The pattern of demonstrations reported earlier (1345 GMT) appears to have continued throughout day. Rather than one large demonstration, there were a series of gatherings --- either by design or in reaction to the security forces' preventing a mass grouping --- throughout Tehran. The reports of clashes, including alleged use of tear gas and gunfire to disperse crowds, are still sketchy. It is also unclear how much activity there was outside Tehran.

1700 GMT: Just going through latest reports and posting latest claimed video of today's demonstrations. Meanwhile, Tehran Bureau, Fintan Dunne, and Nico Pitney at Huffington Post offer useful updates.

1500 GMT: Cellphone reception now blocked in central Tehran.

1445 GMT: Reports of demonstrations at Vanak Square, Vali-e Asr Square, Ferdosi, Tehran University, and Polytechnic University.

1430 GMT: Amidst the news of the demonstrations, it should be noted that Mohammad Ali Dadkhah, a human rights lawyers and founder of Nobel Peace Prize laureate Shirin Ebadi's human rights group, has been arrested.

1345 GMT: There are general reports from various sources of security forces "beating" protesters. Unconfirmed reports of use of tear gas and gunshots at Enqelab and/or Vanak Square. Clashes at Karegar Shomali Street nearr Enqelab Square.

It is not possible at this point to measure both the size of the demonstrations and the scale of the violence. Some "mainstream" media are rushing out the story that "only 250" people have gathered. That appears to be a limited, if not wholly inaccurate, view. What appears to be happening, instead, is that groups of people are meeting at different locations (latest report is several hundred in front of the Polytechnic in Tehran).

1315 GMT: Latest Situation. Reports of Army units replacing police at key points such as Enqelab Square. The square is not completely closed, but police are trying to identify "key" protesters. Also people gathering at Vanak Square. A Revolutionary Guard unit has been placed in front of the Interior Ministry.

Unconfirmed reports of protests in Shiraz, Isfahan, Ahwaz, Babol, Kerman, Mashaad, and Sari.

1145 GMT: It is now after 4 p.m. local time in Iran. Reports:

There is a "heavy presence of security forces at Enqelab Square", with military helicopters flying over Enqelab Square, Azadi Square, and Laleh Park. Main entrances to Tehran University have been blocked. Phone service has been disrupted.

Meanwhile, Iraq's Government says US military officials have transferred to Iraqi custody five Iranians held since March 2007 in an American raid in Kirkuk in northern Iraq.

0815 GMT: A Kind and Gentle Reminder to Those Who Might Protest. Morteza Tamedon, the Governor of Tehran (not to be confused with the Mayor, Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf), has told the Islamic Republic News Agency, "No permission for a gathering or march has been requested or issued. But if some people make moves that are contrary to security initiatives under the influence of anti-revolutionary networks, they will be trampled under the feet of our alert people."

0615 GMT: Battle of the Broadcasters. No significiant news yet from Tehran. Meanwhile, Press TV English sets out its strategy: don't mention any demonstrations but do mention Western interference, using the misleading and outdated claim that the US Government has authorised "hundreds of millions of dollars" for regime change (the reality under the Obama Administration is far less dramatic) and highlighting the claim that the US is supporting the insurgent group Jundallah (probably true in the past, but of little relevance to the post-election events).

CNN counters by raising the question of a split amongst the clerics and giving a brief historical perspective through the 18 Tir demonstrations of 1999.

Another big clue to the US-centred view of Iran comes in the online newspaper, The Daily Beast, which highlights an interview by Reza Aslan (one of the most prominent US-based commentators on Iranian affairs) of Ahmad Batebi, the student activist whose picture became an icon of the 1999 demonstrations.

0530 GMT: Today is the day that may continue or close "Phase 1" of the post-election conflict in Iran. For more than a week, opposition efforts have pointed towards mass marches on 18 Tir, the date in the Iranian calendar, which is the 10th anniversary of student-led demonstrations that called for reform and were suppressed violently. Josh Shahryar's "Green Brief" summarises, "Cities confirmed to protest include: Ahvaz, Arak, Adrabil, Bandar Abbas, Birjand, Bojnurd, Bushehr, Esfehan, Ghazvin, Ghom, Gorgan, Hamedan, Ilam, Kerman, Kermanshah, Khorramabad, Mashhad, Rasht, Sanandaj, Sari, Semnan, Shahrekord, Shiraz, Tabriz, Urmieh, Yasuj, Yazd, Zahedan and Zanjan."

If the marches take place, despite all the Government efforts to block them through detentions, limits on communications, and open threats, then the public protest over the 12 June Presidential election continues. If they fizzle out into scattered gatherings with no cohesive centre, then the regime will have succeeded in its immediate effort to curb the challenge not only to President Ahmadinejad but to the  Iranian system of politics and governance.

Yet, even if the demonstrations are limited, the "Phase 1" analysis remains. Those opposed to the election of President Ahmadinejad and to a system that has suppressed dissent have promised that they will maintain their resistance through general, often symbolic, action. Equally important, inside the system, there have been politicians and clerics who have been unsettled by the developments. Added to those who were already challenging the Presidency and even (though often in a limited way) the Supreme Leader, that disquiet points to continued manoeuvres for power.

Those manoeuvres are now cloaked in uncertainty and rumour. Later today, we'll update our entry on the resistance allegedly provoked by the role of the Supreme Leader's son Mojtaba in events on and after 12 June (put bluntly, we think The Guardian of London story, based on a single source, that summarised a serious challenge is exaggerated and came via "Western" channels rather than directly from Tehran). We'll also be looking carefully at the claim that former President Hashemi Rafsanjani is refusing to lead Friday prayers. And we're reading through a lengthy, challenging analysis that claims the idea of a clerical opposition to the post-election conduct of the regime has been exaggerated --- we'll post the analysis and our thoughts later this morning.