The Latest from Iran (17 July): Back to "Normal"?

2020 GMT: A Just Republic. Meeting students, former President Mohammad Khatami has declared that people want freedom and a republic compatible with religion.

2015 GMT: Electricity Squeeze. Power shortages are reportedly causing daily losses of millions of dollars for domestic companies, especially in Tehran area. The schedule of rotating closures announced by the Ministry of Energy is not being implemented.

NEW Change for Iran: Why Twitter Has Made a Difference
UPDATED Iran Analysis: When “War Chatter” Poses as Journalism (Step Up, Time Magazine)
Iran: Thursday’s Suicide Bombings in Zahedan
The Latest from Iran (16 July): Explosions and Conflict

2005 GMT: The Sanctions. It appears that Germany may be accepting the restrictions on Iranian banks: reports indicate Bank Sepah accounts in Frankfurt will be closed.

A study by a former US Treasury Department analyst had found that five German banks continue to do business with Iranian entities sanctioned by the most recent UN Security Council measures and that four major Iranian banks sanctioned by the Treasury Department or the Security Council continued to operate in Germany.

1940 GMT: Not Diplomatic Immunity (cont.). The Swiss and Iranian Governments have denied earlier reports (see 1605 GMT) in Iran's state media that Switzerland's Ambassador was detained for hours on a journey to northeastern Iran.

Switzerland's foreign ministry said Ambassador Livia Leu Agosti had only been "checked by local police during a trip". Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast said that the story had "been covered inaccurately and wrongly".

1935 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Former President Hashemi Rafsanjani has joined in the condemnation of Thursday's bombing in Zahedan,  "Historical records show that in Iran and countries like Iraq, Afghanistan and Palestine..., terrorists and occupiers have never been and never will be able to achieve their ominous objectives through bloodshed and the massacre of innocents."

However, Rafsanjani --- at least in the summary of his remarks --- did not echo the theme of blaming outside powers such as the US for supporting the attacks.

1815 GMT: The Bazaar Strikes. Green Voice of Freedom, summarising this week's strikes, adds Isfahan and Mashaad to Tehran and Tabriz.

1605 GMT: Not Diplomatic Immunity. Iranian authorites detained the Swiss Ambassador, Livia Leu Agosti, freeing her a few hours later.

Agosti was travelling in North Khorasan Province in northeastern Iran when she was arrested Diplomatic immunity did not apply, according to the Iranian Foreign Ministry, ""because her identity was not established at the time".

It is not clear why the Ambassador was detained.

1545 GMT: Russia, Iran, and the Oil Squeeze. I thought, given this week's news about agreement for a joint oil bank, that Moscow and Tehran were now good energy buddies despite the international sanctions.

So how to explain this bit of Tehran pressure?

Oil Minister Massoud Mirkazemi warned on Saturday that Iran will blacklist foreign firms like Russian energy giant Lukoil that pull out of projects because of sanctions against Tehran: "If one of the companies acts against Iran, we will be forced to consider the reality and put that company on a blacklist."..."They will no longer work in our country," he said.

Mirkazemi singled out the case of Lukoil, which announced it was pulling out in March as new UN, US and EU sanctions over Tehran's controversial nuclear programme loomed. The minister said the Russian firm had reneged on its commitments in the Anaran oilfield which it discovered in western Iran in 2005.

But he added that Iran might consider continuing to work with Lukoil "if we can adjust the content of the agreement."

1410 GMT: A Different Line on Zahedan Bombing. An interesting alternative to the US-Iran dynamic on blame for Thursday's two suicide bombings in southeastern Iran. The reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front has said that “an iron fist” is not an adequate response to the problems in Sistan & Baluchistan . Indeed, the violence occurs amidst the “coup d’etat government’s policies of intimidation, violence, and oppression which is being forced on every aspect of every single Iranian's life, equally”.

1245 GMT: In Case Another Excuse Was Needed for US-Iran Scrapping. President Obama has condemned the Zahedan bombings as an "intolerable offense".

Those words, however, are not going to stem the Iran Government's rhetoric over the attack. Revolutionary Guard commander Massoud Jazayeri has warned, "Jundollah has been supported by America for its terrorist acts in the past....America will have to await the fallout of such criminal and savage measures."

And it looks like Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani is going to join in: "The terrorist attack in the southeast of the country took place with the backing of the US....We have strong documents and intelligence that [executed Jundullah leader Abdolmalek] Rigi was linked to the US, and the US supported him in terror against Iran."

1100 GMT: The Zahedan Bombings. The Government's changing line on Thursday's suicide bombings --- Jundullah is no longer responsible since they had been "defeated" --- is being challenged. Heshmatollah Fallahatpisheh, a member of Parliament's National Security Commission, has demanded publication of documents about Jundullah.

1050 GMT: Parliament v. President (On All Fronts). Challenges here, there, and everywhere....

Ahmad Tavakoli has maintained his leading role in the pressure against the Government, asking for an investigation of former Tehran Prosecutor General and current Presidential aide Saeed Mortazavi over the Kahrizak Prison abuse case.

On the economic front, Elyas Naderan has announced a plan to return Iran Telecom to public control. Emad Hosseini has declared that there is no possibility of implementing subsidy cuts.

And just getting personal, reformist Abdollah Ramezanzadeh has filed a complaint against pro-Ahmadinejad MP Sattar Hedayatkhah.

1045 GMT: More Feuding over Universities. The Guardian Council has rejected a Parliament project supporting the establishment and strengthening of independent academic centres.

1010 GMT: Parliament v. President. Khabar Online claims 80% of members of Parliament have approved the demand for impeachment of Minister of Agriculture Sadegh Khaliliyan.

1005 GMT: Regime Moves to "Hard War"? Bahram Rafiee in Rooz Online posts the analysis that the rhetoric of the regime is shifting from a "soft war" to "hard war" with its enemies. He cites an example in the Supreme Leader's speech to Revolutionary Guard commanders this week, “All national officials must carry out their heavy duties in the various fields and be ready to confront anything as they have been for the past 31 years. Certainly, and without any doubt, the great Iranian nation and the Islamic republic will continue to emerge victorious from this perpetual struggle, as they have been in the past.”

0830 GMT: After the Bombings. Iranian state media reports that 40 suspects have been arrested over Thursday's double suicide bombing in southeastern Iran. State TV has shown thousands attending victims' funerals, chanting "Death to Terrorists" and "Down with the US".

0810 GMT: We have posted a Saturday feature, "Change for Iran: Why Twitter Has Made a Difference".

0710 GMT: A Philosopher's Stand. The German philosopher Otfried Höffe has written in Frankfurter Allgemeine that he will not attend UNESCO's World Day of Philosophy in Tehran, given the human rights abuses of the "unpredictable dictatorship": "With [Immanuel] Kant's reflections on the relationship between philosophy and revelation, I wanted to contribute to our understanding of religion in a highly industrialized country. But now I see myself forced to withdraw from the commitment."

0625 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Azeri activist Firouz Yousefi has been released on bail after being arrested for acts against national security.

0555 GMT: Beyond the tragedy of at least 27 lives lost and 300 people wounded in Thursday's explosions in southeastern Iran (see yesterday's updates), there was the curiosity of the Iranian regime trying to resurrect the "normal" after the event.

Initially, Iran's state media had blamed the Baluch insurgent group Jundullah --- who did indeed claim responsibility --- for the two suicide bombings. Then some official somewhere realised that this would expose the recent narrative that, with a crackdown on Jundullah and the executive Abdolmalek Rigi, order and security had been restored.

And so the media line was revised: the bombings were no longer the work of Jundullah but of some mysterious "hard-line" Sunni group. "Normal" would come in the allegation --- for this is always the allegation --- that "the US, Israel, and some European countries" (the Revolutionary Guard's Yadollah Javani) were behind "terrorist attacks...trained, financed and equipped form beyond the borders" (Deputy Minister of Interior Ali Abdollahi). Washington even hid its perfidy behind the false "humanitarian gesture" of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's condemnation of the bombings.

But this was not only the curiosity of the "normal". For the not-exactly-normal incident in Zahedan might serve the regime by deflecting attention from life that is not-exactly-normal elsewhere. With Iran back to work today, one question is whether bazaar merchants in Tehran and Tabriz join in or whether some stoppage or strike continues.

And there is the bread-and-butter conflict within the establishment. The New York Times has taken notice in an article, "Iran’s President Now Aims at Rivals Among Conservatives" --- which might also should have considered, "Iran's Conservatives Now Aim at the President" --- and adds this information. "Moderate conservative" Morteza Nabavi said in an interview published Friday, "“Now that they [the Government] think they have ejected the reformists, maybe they think it is time to remove their principalist opponents.”

Nabavi also indicated that part of the conflict stems from the beliefs of Ahmadinejad and allies over the return with Shia's "disappeared" or "hidden Imam: “These people say they have direct contact with the 12th imam so they can lead us. This is not just a matter of opposition to government by the clergy but something much deeper.”

Change for Iran: How Twitter Has Made a Difference (Example 3,461)

There has been another spate of commentary belittling the place of Twitter --- usually through a misunderstanding of social media, activism, and politics --- in the post-election crisis in Iran. Often the analysis has come from "experts" who have had no involvement in the use of Twitter. Indeed, they have had no apparent interaction with those who have used the medium to follow events, disseminate information, and maintain links despite the efforts of the Iranian Government to cut off communications.

Amidst this commentary, I read this entry posted last week on "The Contrapuntal Platypus" from a person whose experience of Iran was changed by Twitter, and by one particular Twitter user from inside the country, in June 2009:

To the tweeter known only as @Change_for_Iran,

….You’ll probably never read this.

I don’t even know if you’re still alive, although more than a year after you tweeted for the last time, I continue to pray for your safety. I don’t know if you’re still in Iran, or were forced to flee as many students were, or perhaps lie imprisoned somewhere in the depths of Evin. I can only hope against all odds that you are safe.

Today is 18 Tir (9 July), the 11-year anniversary of the brutal 1999 invasion of the student dormitories. I find myself thinking of you today, because it was your tweets the night of June 14 [2009]  –-- the night history repeated itself and students were again attacked and killed in their dormitories –-- that brought me to #iranelection and to the Sea of Green.

******

I had been following the leadup to Iran’s 2009 election for weeks before on various news outlets: the buildup of support for Mousavi, the crowds of people –-- both young and old, male and female, religious and secular --– all wearing green, the color of hope. The unpredecented voter turnout on election day. The excitement and anticipation for a new future: one of tolerance and openness rather than repression and secrecy.

And then, of course, the result, hastily announced and incomprehensible. The backlash of disbelief and shock. Then the protests began, building day after day.

As the crisis escalated, I read on The Guardian website that the best sources of breaking news were the Iranian students posting updates on Twitter. I was intrigued, but held back from investigating first-hand. It was, I vaguely sensed, something that I could far too easily spend hours doing. Besides, I had always heard that Twitter was a pointless, egotistical social medium, good only for navel-gazers intent on telling the world what they had for breakfast. Far better to get my updates sifted through the convenient filter of a news website.

Until the night the dormitories were attacked. Then I knew I couldn’t bear to remain at a “safe” distance any longer. I had to see the confict as it unfolded for myself.

Read rest of article....

Israel: Government Budget Cuts Defense and Welfare

On Friday, the Israeli Government approved a new two-year budget. However, cuts both in defense and welfare brought criticisms from parts of the coalition. Following the NIS 2.7 billion (about $700 million) reduction in the defense budget, ministers from Israel Beiteinu stormed out of the meeting and Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, the leader of the party, threatened to vote No in the Knesset. Minister of Welfare Isaac Herzog (Labor) also left the meeting before voting.

Speaking to Israel Radio, Public Security Minister Yitzhak Aharonovitch (Israel Beiteinu) said:

Gaza Latest: European Union Calls on Israel to Open Border Crossings

If the government doesn't fund the office, Israeli society will be harmed. There is a need to strengthen the police and the prison service. The ministry can't be run [without additional funding.]

Israel Beiteinu is the senior partner [in the coalition], but we're treated otherwise. I say to the government and to the prime minister: we'll meet in the Knesset. We're voting against the budget - it will not pass!

Shas's leader, Interior Minister Eli Yisha,i announced that he will fight in the Knesset for the increase in welfare funds.

Defense Minister Ehud Barak (Labor) did not target the government but underlined the "challenges faced" by the Israel Defense Forces:

We made a difficult decision, taking into consideration the economic and social situation in Israel. There are consequences to this decision, and I showed them to the cabinet.

Barak added that he hopes the IDF can "stand before the challenges in the resources budgeted to us. The balance between the security budget and the other budgets can bring us to deal correctly with the security and social challenges in Israel."

The IDF released a statement, thanking both Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Finance Minister Yuval Steinitz (both from Likud).

Following the voting, Steinitz said:

The government approved a proffesional budget, which balances the different needs of the market. After years in which the security budget recieved significant additions, which strengthened the military, the government has chosen to give these additions to the education budget, health and welfare.

My mission is that the coming years will bring a shrinking of social gaps by strengthening the weaker sectors. The 2011-2012 budget will allow the government to plan for the long term and will strengthen the stability and security in the market.

And Prime Minister Netanyahu said:

The budget we compiled today is a responsible and balanced budget, that grants stability to the Israeli economy for the next two years.

The public in every country pays for going over the budget and unchecked spending. It may not be clear when a government goes over the budget, but we see what happened in some European countries. We can't let such irresponsibility happen in Israel.

Gaza Latest: European Union Calls on Israel to Open Border Crossings

The European Union's High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Catherine Ashton, arrives in the Middle East today. During her three-day trip, Ashton will meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Ehud Barak, Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, PA Prime Minister Salam Fayyad, and the Quartet's special envoy to the Middle East, Tony Blair.

Ashton is due to visit the Gaza Strip on Sunday. There are no plans to meet any Hamas officials, with Ashton visiting the projects of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees.

Before her visit, Ashton said:

We stand ready to support the opening of the Gaza crossings for the traffic of goods to and from Gaza. The European Union has been calling for an urgent and fundamental change of policy regarding the closure of Gaza.

Middle East Inside Line: US Reaction to House Demolitions, Netanyahu-Mubarak Meeting Deferred and More…

MENA House: Ashraf Marwan Update --- "No Evidence for Suicide"

A follow-up to our coverage this week of the life and death of Egyptian industrialist and President advisor Ashraf Marwan (Israeli spy? Egyptian double agent? Suicide? Or Murder Victim?)....

An inquest in Britain has returned an open verdict on Marwan's death.

More than three years after the industrialist supposedly fell or jumped from a London balcony, Dr William Dolman, the assistant deputy coroner for Westminster, said there was no evidence that Dr Marwan committed suicide.

MENA House: Was Egyptian Billionaire Marwan (Suicide? Murdered?) an Israeli Spy?

The initial report claimed that the cause of Marwan's death was suicide.  However, Mona Abdel Nasser, Marwan's wife and daughter of the late Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser, claimed this was not possible and her husband was assassinated.

Dr Dolman added in his judgement, "There is no evidence of mental or psychiatric disorder...[and] no evidence of any intention to commit suicide."

Assassination?

Speaking on Egyptian television,  Dr Essam Abdel Samad, head of the Egyptians Union in Europe, pointed out that Mona Abdel Nasser had accused Scotland Yard of negligence in their handling of the case.  Samad supposed Nasser's claim that it was  illogical that Marwan would commit suicide. He added, "There were no finger prints or hair fibres at Marwan's fourth floor flat in London.  The crime scene was too clean to suggest a murder.  If suicide is not a possibility, then that leaves them with what is becoming a more probable cause of death: A 'professional' assassination."

The open verdict in London may produce more questions than answers.  If indeed an assassination took place, who would have done it? Mona Abdel Nasser is convinced it was Israel's intelligence service Mossad.  But why would they kill Marwan more than 30 years after he allegedly co-operated with them? Did Marwan hold confidential and sensitive information about Mossad or any other intelligence agency?