MENA House: Was Egyptian Billionaire Marwan (Suicide? Murdered?) an Israeli Spy?

On 27 June 2007, Ashraf Marwan --- leading industrialist, aide to one Egyptian President, married to the daughter of another --- died, allegedly in a fall from a balcony.

The initial coroner's report stated that Marwan had jumped and committed suicide. However, Mona Abdel Nasser, Marwan’s wife and the daughter of former President Gamal Abdel Nasser, alleged that her husband was killed by Mossad, the Israeli secret service. Nine days before his death, Marawan supposedly told his wife that he felt he was being watched by Mossad agents and could be assassinated at any moment.

Mona Abdel Nasser also claimed that Marawan could not have thrown himself off the balcony, since he suffered from joint problems and struggled in walking, let alone climbing. In addition, Marawan’s shoes were not found at the crime scene, even though he supposedly always wore special support footwear for his condition.

Was Marwan murdered?  If so, why and by whom?

To consider this, let's take a look at the man.

Ashraf Marwan came from a financially stable family, a parallel to the aristocrats of Egypt prior to the 1952 revolution.  His father was one of the highes- ranking officers in the Egyptian military.  Later Ashraf Marawan served as the chief of staff and personal secretary to 'the Pharaoh' President, Anwar Sadat, and married the daughter of former President Gamal Abdel Nasser.

A trusted patriot and a leading industrialist could not betray his motherland. Or could he? 

Allegations of Marwan's allegiance surfaced in September of 2002.  A London-based Israeli historian, Ahron Bregman, published a book claiming that Marwan was Israel's "master spy" in Cairo.

The next year Howard Blum, citing the head of Israeli military intelligence during the 1973 Yom Kippur War, General Eli Zeira, claimed that Marwan had communicated with the Israelis since a meeting in London in 1969.  The Israeli intelligence service, Mossad,would pay Marwan £50,000 each visit. Marwan often met directly with Zvi Zamir, the head of Mossad, and Marwan's conversations were taped and transcribed for the Israeli Prime Minister.

Was Ashraf Marwan an Israeli spy?  Discussing the matter on Al Taba'a il Oola (The FirstPrint), Ahmed el Meslemani argued that the suggestion was ludicrous, pointing to Marwan's financial stability and patriotic background. The Egyptian intelligence services also were far from completely oblivious to Marwan's movements. Even President Hosni Mubarak had openly stated that Marwan was a patriot and trustworthy.

Still, El Meslemani's response runs up against the widespread theme in Egyptian television soap operas and films, based on true stories, that Mossad "sometimes" recruited Egyptian spies: During tsummer school holidays, Egyptian students would travel to Europe to work, earn some money, and gain some experience. During this time that Mossad would target the students and lure them into liaising with them.

Yet those same TV programmes and films, from the famous Abla Kamil'to soaps "Ra'afat il Hagan" and "Harb il Gawasees" (The War Between Secret Agents), put up an alternative story. In some cases, the Egyptian Intelligence services would be aware of the Israeli manoeuvres and use the students as double agents. Encouraging the students to gain the trust of Mossad, Egyptian intelligence would give the students supposedly vital information on topics such as military activity to pass to Mossad, tracking and sometimes deceiving the Israelis.

So Ashraf Marwan, a suicide or murder victim? An Israeli spy or Egyptian double agent?

The Latest from Iran (15 July): The Zahedan Bombing

2130 GMT: The Zahedan Bombing. Back from a family break to learn about the two explosions, reportedly caused by suicide bombers, which have killed more than 20 people and wounded more than 100 in the southeastern Iranian city of Zahedan in Sistan-Baluchestan Province.

The explosions occurred in front of Zahedan's Grand Mosque. The first was at 9:20 p.m. local time (1650 GMT) and was followed by a second blast within minutes. A local MP claimed the first suicide bomber, dressed as a woman, tried to get into the mosque but was prevented

There are reports that members of the Revolutionary Guard are amongst the dead.

Deputy Interior Minister Ali Abdollahi has always described the incident as a "terrorist act". The prime suspect will be the Baluch insurgent group Jundullah, whose leader Abdolmalek Rigi was recently executed.

NEW Iran Follow-Up: The Story Beyond the Opposition, Enduring America, and US “Neoconservatives"
Iran: Understanding That Nuclear Scientist/Abduction Case (All It Takes is 1 Cartoon)
Iran Through the Looking Glass: “Never Judge Enduring America by Its Cover”
The Latest from Iran (14 July): Getting to the Point

1709 GMT: Rafsajani Watch. Former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, in an interview with Ertebatat monthly, has said, "Under the pretext of opposition to me, [Mohammad] Khatami, Nategh Nouri and [Mehdi] Karroubi, Ahmadinejad has put on sale all the achievements of the Revolution."

1700 GMT: Today's All-Is-Well Alert. From Press TV:

Iran's jet fuel production will soon surpass its local demand, as the country is boosting its production capacity in central Iran, an official says. Ali Dehqanian, a senior official with Isfahan Oil Refining Company (IORC), said the company currently produces 1.3 million liters of fuel jet per day, noting that Iran needs 4 million liters of fuel jet per day....

He added that an optimization project is underway in the company's fuel production unit that when complete will increase its jet fuel production to 5 million liters per day.

The official noted that 70 percent of the project has already been completed.

1658 GMT: The Electricity Squeeze. Rah-e-Sabz claims the Iran Khodro and Saipa automobile companies will close down on certain days during the week. The same is expected for other big firms.

1655 GMT: The Bazaar Strikes. Radio Zamaneh interviews two leading merchants from the Tehran Bazaar: "We Do Not Trust the Government's Promises".

1645 GMT: What is Ayatollah Yazdi Up To? Okay, so here's a summary of the statement by Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi at a meeting for the "Velayat Project" at Shahid Beheshti University:

Some think that the Supreme Leader has a representative function like the British Queen, but this is not true. Ayatollah Khomeini said: If the chosen President is not appointed by the Supreme Leader, he is a "taghout" (monarchist) and following him is haram (forbidden).

On the surface, that looks to be a straight-forward defence of Ayatollah Khamenei. But EA's Ms Zahra thinks there may be another interpreation: "This is a preparation for Yazdi's own succession as Leader and a justification of Ahmadinejad. He pretends to defend Khamenei's right to intervene in all matters, but even raising the "untrue" comparison with the Queen is an indirect attack.

1525 GMT: The Bigger Guardian Council Story? We noted the immediate headline today that the Supreme Leader had re-appointed three clerical representatives on the Guardian Council (see 1412 GMT).

This, however, is much more interesting. Sadegh Larijani, the head of Iran's judiciary, now names three of the "legal" representatives. His short-list --- Mohammad Salimi, Ahmad Beygi Habib-Abadi, Mohammad Reza Alizadeh, Mohammad Hadi Sadegh, and Siamak Rahpeyk --- excludes two candidates, current Council member Gholam-Hossein Elham and Assembly of Experts member Ayatollah Ka'abi, who are seen as pro-Ahmadinejad.

1455 GMT: The Bazaar Strikes. Alef has posted pictures of Tehran Bazaar today. Some show vendors doing business, others are of rows of closed stalls:

1450 GMT: Remembering. An activist translates Fereshteh Ghazi's account of the life and death of Amir Javadifar, who was abused and killed in Kahrizak Prison a year ago.

1428 GMT: Russia's Carrot-and-Stick Play. Meeting his Iranian counterpart Massoud Mir-Kazemi in Moscow, Russian Minister of Energy Sergei Shmatko praised “active cooperation between Russian and Iranian companies in the oil, gas and petrochemical sectors, which are developing and widening in their joint work”.

Yet Russian President Dmitry Medvedev seems to have put out a wordy warning to Tehran over the nuclear issue, "I would like to say that Iran is our rather active trading partner and has been tested by time, but that does not mean we are indifferent to the way Iran is developing its nuclear programme and we are not indifferent to how the military components of the corresponding programme look."

Analysis, please: is Moscow indicating that the recently-toughened UN sanctions are not a restriction on Iran's energy sector or is Shmatko's statement just a bit of rhetorical "balancing" to avoid a complete detachment from Tehran while his President stands alongside the "West"?

1412 GMT: The Guardians of the Guardian Council. Back from travels to find that the Supreme Leader has reinstated Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, Ayatollah Gholam Reza Rezvani, and Ayatollah Mohammad Reza Modarresi Yazdi, three of the six clerics on the 12-member Guardian Council.

0914 GMT: We've posted an analysis by Mr Verde of the bigger significance yesterday's opinion piece on the opposition website Rah-e-Sabz: "The Story Beyond the Opposition, Enduring America, and US 'Neoconservatives'".

0910 GMT: The Bazaar Strikes. Kalemeh, the website linked to Mir Hossein Mousavi, claims that the gold market in Tehran Bazaar is still closed.

0635 GMT: On Guard! General Amir Ahmad-Reza Pourdastan, commander of Iran's land forces, has announced that large parts of southern Iran will become "armed territory".

However, the foreign threat is not the main concern of Hojatoleslam Ali Saidi, the Supreme Leader's representative to the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps. He has declared that the "smallest mistake of officials will be punished heavily".

0630 GMT: Economy Watch (Revolutionary Guard Edition). The Minister of Economy, speaking in the Parliament, has spoken about the privatisation of Iran Telecom. He said that a rival of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps was eliminated from the bidding after the demand of  "one of the securityforces organisations".

0625 GMT: Government Retreat on Subsidy Cuts? Mohammad Reza Farzin, the Deputy Minister of Economy, has said the subsidy cut plan could be postponed. The current intention is to start reductions in Mehr (September/October), but Farzin says this is "perhaps too early".

0620 GMT: The Universities Dispute. Rah-e-Sabz reports that the head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, has met former President Hashemi Rafsanjani to discuss the conflict over control of Islamic Azad University, but there has been no resolution.

0555 GMT: To Lose One Journalist is a Misfortune, To Lose Four Looks Like Carelessness. Peyke Iran claims that a cultural reporter for Fars News has fled to France. His departure follows those of Hossein Salmanzadeh of the photo section, photojournalist Javad Moghimi, and political journalist Farahmand Alipour.

0530 GMT: Many thanks to readers for providing a rolling service of news and analysis while I was busy in the International Summer School on Wednesday.

Catching Up with the News....

Amiri Not A Nuclear Scientist Shocker

Iranian state media is setting out the line on the curious case of scientist Shahram Amiri, who returned to Iran from the US yesterday, purportedly through his words on his 14 months outside the country. Press TV has him saying:

The US administration has connected my abduction to Iran's nuclear case to pursue certain goals and exert pressure on the Iranian government. While I was being interrogated by US intelligence agents, they urged me to announce that I carried a laptop containing important information and applied for asylum.

The statement links back to the Americans' claim in recent years that they have an Iranian laptop proving Iran's pursuit of a nuclear weapons, a claim disputed by many analysts. There are flourishes such as "Israel agents" at Amiri's interrogation, the "heaviest mental torture", and an offer of $10 million to appear on CNN and announce his defection.

Interestingly, Amiri is no longer a "nuclear scientist" in the article. He is an "academic".

Why the US would put so much effort into abducting a mere "scholar" is not made clear by Press TV.

And He Doesn't Get His $5 Million, Either

The US Government line, put out in The Washington Post, is a good-bye to Amiri with the sneer, "We're keeping your defection money."

Officials say Amiri was paid more than $5 million by the CIA before breaking off "significant cooperation" and "abruptly returning" to Iran because he missed his family:

Anything he got is now beyond his reach, thanks to the financial sanctions on Iran. He's gone, but his money's not. We have his information, and the Iranians have him.

Middle East Inside Line: US Reaction to House Demolitions, Netanyahu-Mubarak Meeting Deferred and More...

US Criticises Demolition of Palestinian Houses: On Wednesday, State Department spokesman Philip Crowley criticized Israel's recent demolition of Palestinian houses in East Jerusalem: "It is the very kind of action that poses a potential obstacle to direct negotiations. Any steps that the Israelis, Palestinians or other parties take that change the facts on the ground, we think are unhelpful."

Netanyahu Not Going to Cairo: Egypt deferred "the planned meeting between President Hosni Mubarak and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Israeli sources claim that the underlying reason of the postponement is Mubarak's deteriorating health situation (see separate EA entry with further information). However, speaking with Al-Shorouq on Wednesday, a senior Egyptian official denied reports of Mubarak's ailing health, saying the meeting was pushed back due to "provocative moves made by Israel".

Turkey Insists on International Probe of Flotilla Attack: After Maj.-Gen. Giora Eiland announced that a military commission's findings that the Israeli Navy had made "operational mistakes" in the 31 May operation against the Freedom Flotilla to Gaza, Turkey's Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu told reporters Tuesday that he welcomed the acknowledgement of "mistakes". However, he said the Israeli commandos had committed "a crime" and said Turkey wants an international enquiry.

Israel Radar System Successfully Tested: Israel tested the Iron Dome's advanced radar system successfully on Wednesday, moving a step closer to deploying both radars and interceptor missiles along the Gaza and Lebanon borders.

Hezbollah's "List of Targets": In an interview with AFP, Naim Kassem, the leader of Hezbollah, said that the group has "large and precise" list of Israeli targets to attack if a third Lebanon war breaks out. He continued:

We now hold a large and precise bank of Israeli targets, and Israel will have to pay the price for any step it takes.

Hezbollah has worked to develop its readiness to rise to the challenge should it arise, and we can safely say that in the past four years we have prepared ourselves far more than Israel has.

Iran Follow-Up: The Story Beyond the Opposition, Enduring America, and US "Neoconservatives"

Yesterday I noted --- partly because I was annoyed, partly because I was amused --- that Enduring America had made an unexpected cameo appearance in a sweeping attack, published by the opposition website Rah-e-Sabz, on US "neo-conservatives" as "false friends" of the Green Movement.

Mr Verde follows up by analysing the significance of the story far beyond Rah-e-Sabz and the article:

Iran Through the Looking Glass: “Never Judge Enduring America by Its Cover”

First, the reference to EA in the article:

The website “Enduring America” (meaning “Sustainable America”), by using the logo of the Pentagon for its site, pretends to support the Green Movement. The website “Tehran Bureau” has been criticized by many of its readers because it claims that it supports the freedom movement in Iran while at the same time it has an Israeli analyst, who writes his comments from the viewpoint of Israel’s interests.

The author is using reference to EA as an ill-fitting “filler” to move from Huntington to Tehran Bureau. There is no reference to any content, just a mention of the site name, its translation into Persian, and a reference to the site logo. Beyond this, there is no substance to the “exposure” –-- as the author would like to see it –-- of EA as part of the great neocon conspiracy to ensure that Iran does not become democratic.

The author starts the article with a quote from Ataollah Mohajerani, a Minister in the Khatami Government. It mentions Moajerani’s article “Keyhan and the CIA” (29 Khordad/ 19 June), and his 28 June speech about the risks to the Green Movement and his support of them.

Mohajerani recently started categorising and filtering the Green Movement into his version of the Good, the Bad and the Ugly, which he called the “nationalists”, “non-nationalists”, and “anti-nationalist”. It looks like he is trying to act as a Guardian Council for the Movement.

Mohajerani has been criticised for this seemingly “disqualification” of some of the Green supporters. The main aim of the author in Rah-e Sabz seems to be support of  Mohajerani, trying to “illustrate” the neocon conspiracy and thus accuse some purported Green Movement supporters of being neocon stooges and anti-democracy in Iran.

The article also mentions the “nag ghazeh, na lobnan” (not Gaza, not Lebanon) slogan, referring to last September’s Qods Day chants by anti-regime protestors: “nag ghazeh, na lobnan – jaanam fadayeh iran” (“not Gaza, not Lebanon --- I give my life for Iran”). Referring to the regime’s support for Hezbollah and Hamas, the slogan declares forget Gaza and Lebanon and let’s fix Iran first.

A few weeks ago Mohsen Kadivar, who happens to be Mohajerani’s brother-in-law, said in an interview on Voice of America Persian that the protestors’ slogan on Qods Day was actually “ham ghazeh, ham lobnan –-- jaanam fadayeh iran” (“both Gaza and Lebanon –-- I give my life for Iran”). After he was criticized for saying this, given the video evidence, Kadivar  sent an email to VoA conceding that the “not, Gaza, not Lebanon” version of the slogan was shouted by people on that day but adding that he preferred the “both Gaza and Lebanon” version. Perhaps far from coincidentally, the author of the Rah-e Sabz article also has a go at Voice of America.

My main point? This article is another indication of the crisis with the Islamic Republic and different interpretations of its founding ideology:

On the regime side, there are management crises everywhere (power shortages, water shortages, Bazaar strikes, etc.) and Ahmadinejad getting into arguments with his supporters --- or should that be former supporters? --- about neckties. The Supreme Leader compares himself with the first Shia Imam and thinks he’s going to war in the 7th Century AD.

The reformists, faced with their own ideological shortcomings (which is inevitable, as they come from the same background as Ayatollah Khamenei and the rest of the regime), are finding them very difficult to resolve. So some of them (I must emphasise some of them, and not all of them) instead opt for disqualifying Green supporters and trying to change the meaning of slogans. Confronted over these tactics, they start lashing out at everyone and anyone. Welcome to “politics” Iranian style!

Mir Hossein Mousavi who is sitting in Iran and having to put up with the consequences of not giving in to Khameni/Ahmadinejad’s demands (consequences which include the assassination by “unknown persons” of Mousavi's nephew during the Ashura protests last December) says that the Green Movement does not have a leader and also that the Green Movement does not have a spokesperson overseas.

Maybe instead of attempting to speak on behalf of the movement, mimicking the Guardian Council by disqualifying some regime opponents, and distorting the declarations of people who risked their lives in the streets in Iran, Mr Mohajerani and his allies might contemplate their roles --- as senior regime officials not that long ago --- in the mess that the Islamic Republic has created in Iran today. Maybe, instead of making false accusations, based on half-baked arguments, they might think about what it is that they stand for?

Gaza Latest: Aid Ship Docks in Egypt but 3 International Investigations on the Way

The Amalthea, carrying aid, entered Egypt's el-Arish port on Wednesday despite the call of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh to break the siege of Gaza, "The sea and land convoys must continue. We hope we can depend on Islamic nations to help us lift the blockade."

Following the Amalthea's docking in el-Arish, Israeli Deputy Prime Minister Dan Meridor restated:

Gaza Latest: Is Aid Ship On Its Way or Going Back to Egypt?

Anyone who wants to bring materials there which are not dangerous materials - munitions, etcetera - can bring them through El Arish, can bring them through the [Israeli] port of Ashdod.

What we want is to set the arrangement for inspections, so we can always check and not allow them to bust their way in.

Then Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon announced that Israel can consider itself "victorious" in the Libyan ship incident. He said that calls by the European Union and the US for the ship to follow Israel's instructions and not sail to Gaza are a good sign.

However, West Jerusalem's problems may just be starting. Haaretz reports that there will be several meetings amongst high-ranked officials this week Israel's official response to the United Nations' enquiries. Following the Goldstone Report on the Gaza War, Israel faces three new international investigations. Some officials described the situation  as a "barrage".

The most significant enquiry is that of the UN committee charged with examining the credibility of Israel's court system in the wake of the Goldstone Report . Haaretz's Barak Ravid reports:

The inquiry into the Israeli court system was decided on at a March meeting of the UNHRC [UN Human Rights Commission] in Geneva as part of its continuing effort to monitor Israel's response to the Goldstone report. The panel is charged with examining the efficiency, independence, and professionalism of Israel's court system and its adherence to internationally accepted standards. Some Israeli officials have already begun describing it as "a second Goldstone committee."

The committee headed by the German jurist Christian Tomuschat is tasked with monitoring any legal steps taken by the Israeli or Palestinian authorities to implement the Goldstone Report's recommendations. It should begin its work in the next few weeks and submit a final report in October.

Israel's official response to the Goldstone report has been negative, labelling it as "one-sided, legitimizing terrorism". So, if the Netanyahu government decides to cooperate with the Tomuschat committee, it will be a change in strategy.

Two other international committees, one appointed by the UN Secretary General and the other by the UN Human Rights Council, are set to begin work over Israel's May raid on the Gaza-bound Freedom Flotilla.