MENA House: Solving All of Egypt's Problems

Mohammed Amara from Al Masry al Youm has calculated that the Egyptian Government spends an average of 10 million EGP (Egyptian pounds) for every citizen from the momentof their birth to the moment they take their last breath.

Amari calculates that,  if the average age of an Egyptian citizen is 68.5 years, then the government spends (after calculating some figures) an average of 400EGP a day per citizen.

On Al do’ il ahmar (The Red Light), presenter Ahmed el Meslemani added this comment :

There’s a circulating joke in South America that goes something like this:

The US Government gave a country $1 trillion. The President of this State took half the sum, and gave the rest to the Chancellor of the Exchequer. The Chancellor of the Exchequer then took a quarter of the half a trillion passed on to him, and he further passed the remainder to the Ministry of Affairs. The Ministry of Affairs had a look at what was given and was pleased! He then took the remainder of the total sum leaving nothing for the people.

And so, to the people, he passed on a kind-hearted message, "The US says hello to you."

Meanwhile, the 1999 Nobel Prize Laureate in Chemistry, Ahmed Zeweil has written in British and Egyptian publications that economic progress in any society can only come about with educational reform. In particular, focusing on the Middle Eastern Region, Dr Zeweil highlights that "'the soft power of modern science, education and economic developments" is essential:

This situation is a timebomb that could be triggered by frustrated youth expressing their despair through national and international violence. Progress in the Middle East is important to the west not only for obtaining natural resources, but also for maintaining an influence in a region that is luring other powers such as China and Russia.

So if every Egyptian citizen receives the 400EGP daily allowance and good quality education, all problems are solved. Or is it really as simple as that?

Palestine Analysis: What is Ramallah's Strategy on Israel Talks? (Yenidunya)

Although some Palestinian Authority officials do not rule out the possibility of moving to direct talks as long as Israel give certain pledges regarding the agenda and the timetable, chief Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat is not seeing eye-to-eye with them.

Speaking to the Turkish state television channel TRT on Tuesday, Erekat said:

Our option is a two-state solution. We have recognized the state of Israel and its right to exist on the 1967 borders. Now it's up to the international community to stand firm and recognize Palestine on the 1967 lines with Jerusalem as its capital.

Our position is that the key to direct negotiations is in the hand of Mr. Netanyahu. The minute he stops settlement activities including natural growth in Jerusalem, the minute he agrees to go to permanent status talks, where we left them in December 2008, we'll have direct talks.

The Israelis have a choice, settlements or peace. They can't have both.

Erekat also added that a unilateral declaration of a Palestinian state is "not on the agenda".

In contrast, pointing to a possible consensus on the transfer of security in some West Bank cities to Palestinian forces as a confidence-building measure, Haaretz reports that Shin Bet security service head Yuval Diskin recently spent a day in the West Bank city of Jenin as a guest of Palestinian Authority counterparts.

Shin Bet chose not to respond to the report. Senior Palestinian officials, however, confirmed yesterday that Diskin had visited last week.

So, given that some Palestinian officials like Erekat are putting conditions on talks but others like Yasser Abed Rabbo are hinting at a possible deal to get to the negotiating table, what is Ramallah's strategy?

It had been reported, following President Obama's telephone call to the PA leader Mahmoud Abbas, that Abbas rejected direct talks before a settlement freeze in both the West Bank and in East Jerusalem. However, Haaretz adds this crucial paragraph:

According to knowledgeable sources in Ramallah, the day after meeting with Netanyahu, US President Barack Obama promised PA President Mahmoud Abbas that if, by this coming winter, [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu doesn't place a reasonable map on the negotiating table, which includes the division of Jerusalem, Obama will place his own map on the table.

Thus, the answer to the Palestinian riddle tseems to lie in Washington.

Iran Through the Looking Glass: "Never Judge Enduring America by Its Cover"

Yesterday a contact sent word that --- for the first time to our knowledge --- Enduring America had made an appearance in the leading Iran opposition website Rah-e-Sabz. True, the reference was only one line in an opinion piece, but still, it's a reference, right?



Oops.

Turns out the article sets out to expose the motives and deceptions of US neo-conservatives. EA unexpectedly finds itself not along the Green Movement but as an uncomfortable bedfellow of former CIA operative Reuel Marc Gerecht, former Bush Administration official John Bolton, and Senator McCain. So here is our walk-on part in the article:

We must turn upside down the notion that neoconservative Americans "support" democratic movements and their people. The website "Enduring America" (meaning "Sustainable America"), with its Pentagon logo, pretends to support the Green Movement.

Well, about the name. We were probably being too clever by half when we came up with EA's title, but as Mike Dunn explained last November, after we had faced a series of questions as to whether we were pro- or anti-American:

Enduring America took its inspiration from Operation Enduring Freedom [the US war in Afghanistan]. We were struck by the ambiguity behind this name, with “Freedom” being both enduring and endured. This double meaning is also present in our feelings towards America and US foreign policy: is it enduring or endured? Or both?

And the logo? We also wanted something to capture the complexity of American power, not to endorse it but to think about it. So a colleague, Ryan O'Kane, came up with a combination of the Pentagon motif and a Coca-Cola/Pepsi bottle-top, all in red, white, and blue.

More importantly, I'm not sure the author of the Rah-e-Sabz piece got past our banner to read any of what we've written. If he had, he might have noticed that we're not fond of Mr. Bolton's approach to Iran and that we do not think Senator McCain and Mr Gerecht's simplistic representations of the regime and the opposition deserves priority over assessments by Iranians of their situation. Indeed, a quick search for "neoconservatives" on EA would turn  up our open letter last December to "False US Friends of the Iranian People".

Indeed, the only direct reference by the Rah-e-Sabz author to any of our coverage and analysis came in an assertion earlier this year, posted in a comment on another website, on a different topic: "If it were up to William Lucas, there would not have been any discussion of the New York Times articles leading up to the Iraq invasion."

Hmm... Must be a different William (or rather Scott) Lucas who devoted a 324-page book to the "Betrayal of Dissent" by the US Government, media, and intellectuals in their justification of the 2003 Iraq War.

So, given this, how did EA wind up amongst the neo-con, CIA-affiliated bad boys in Rah-e-Sabz? The answer is a glimpse of how the post-election conflict takes perspectives on the Iranian government, the Green Movement, and activists through the looking glass.

For the author's attention to EA and William/Scott Lucas --- distilled into the comment on Iraq above --- was prompted not by our position on the Green Movement, the Iranian Government, civil rights, post-election events, or even "neo-conservatives". Rather, it was prompted by my criticism of the commentary on Race for Iran --- which eventually appeared on EA in this form when it tried to tear down the reputation of  a New York Times reporter, Nazila Fathi, for her article on May's execution of five Iranians.

(So I criticised a website which supports the Iran Government for its attempt to put a reporter beyond the acceptable for her writing on justice and civil rights. The outcome is that an author on Rah-e-Sabz, which opposes the Iran Government, tries to put EA beyond the acceptable without considering its writing on justice and civil rights.

Just grabbing a dictionary to look up "irony".)

In the author's words, "It is not helpful to comment on [Race for Iran's]' 'intellectual honesty'...as Lucas does."

I beg to differ. It is always helpful to comment on honesty, be that the honesty of US neo-conservatives, the honesty of academics and intellectuals, the honesty of Iran's opposition movement, and the honesty of its regime.

But that critique should be done, well, honestly, not by guessing or speculating superficially on a logo or a name, but by considering evidence and analyses. It should be done with open mind and open hand rather than closed thought.

And, with that, back to today's news....

Israel-Palestine: West Bank Village of Walajeh Faces Isolation

The Palestinian village Walajeh, a village in the Bethlehem Governorate located 8.5 kilometres (5.3 miles) to the southwest of Jerusalem, is in danger of being cut off from the rest of the Palestinian lands, leaving 2,000 villagers encircled by Israeli settlements, roads and security barriers.

"Construction has begun on a new section of the West Bank security barrier," says The Jerusalem Post, which continues:

The barrier will make a large dip into the West Bank to keep the settlements, including Har Gilo and the Gush Etzion bloc, on the Israeli side. Within that pocket, an extra loop of barrier is to surround Walajeh on three sides, with a fenced road off limits to Palestinians to Har Gilo closing off the fourth side, according to the Defense Ministry map of the projected route.

Adel Atrash, a village council member said, “We will cling to the village by our teeth. But we don’t know how the next generation will look at things. Maybe they won’t be able to live with all the difficulties and decide to leave.”

Although Foreign Ministry spokesman Yigal Palmor said, "In future negotiations [with the Palestinian Authority], the route of the security barrier will not constitute a political factor,” the newspaper's brief summary of the Wall is more imposing:

Today, the barrier, almost two-thirds complete, runs for more than 400 kilometers through the West Bank and east Jerusalem. Once finished, the barrier would put 9.4 percent of the West Bank on the Israeli side, along with 85% of half a million Israeli settlers, according to a UN report.

The Latest from Iran (13 July): Back to Politics?

2030 GMT: Tie Me Up, Tie Me Down. Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami has denounced President Ahmadinejad for saying that no religious leader has banned the wearing of a tie: "I say to him that many religious dignitaries believe ties should not be worn. The Supreme Guide [Leader] himself has said in a that the wearing of ties or bowties is not permitted."

1955 GMT:Electricity Squeeze. Mohammad Behzad, the Deputy Minister of Energy, has said industrial electricity will be rationed with alterations of working hours and rotating closures of companies.

1945 GMT: Iran Aircraft on Empty? BP and Iran Air have both confirmed that the British company has stopped supplying jet fuel at Germany's Hamburg airport.

Iran Analysis: Grand Ayatollah Golpayegani Criticises Supreme Leader? (and What Could It Mean?)
Iran’s Haircuts Special: The Revenge of the Mullets
The Latest from Iran (12 July): Holidays?

1915 GMT: Where is Mahmoud (Not Going)? Hmm, not sure what to make of this. From Mehr News:

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has postponed his visit to Lebanon till after the holy month of Ramadan [which ends on 9 September], the Beirut-based Al-Akhbar newspaper said in a report published on Tuesday.

The decision was made after a consultation between Tehran and Beirut, Al-Akhbar quoted Lebanese diplomatic sources as saying....

Ahmadinejad, who has been invited by his Lebanese counterpart Michel Suleiman, was supposed to visit Beirut before 11 August at the head of a 70-member delegation.

1900 GMT: Today's All-is-Well Alert. From Press TV:

Iran's Interior Minister says Tehran has successfully foiled all foreign plots aimed at destabilizing the country over the past three decades. "Over the past 30 years, our enemies faced defeat in every instance and their latest ploy was [inciting] the seditionists who wanted to break our ranks," Mostafa Mohammad-Najjar told reporters on Tuesday....

The Interior Minister said peace was restored to the country's eastern region after the execution of Abdolmalek Rigi, the ringleader of the Pakistan-based Jundallah terrorist group.

"With the execution of this villain, who was backed by several Western spy agencies and the Israelis, complete peace has returned to the region."

1850 GMT: The Prison Scandal. Writing in Rooz Online, Fereshteh Ghazi offers a lengthy critique of the Kahrizak abuse case. She sets out the case that, while two security personnel have been condemned to death and nine have been given prison sentences, those responsible --- notably former Tehran Prosecutor General Saeed Mortazavi --- have escaped justice.

1825 GMT: Politics and the Bazaar Strike. An EA correspondent pulls together the latest from the Tehran Bazaar and a statement by the head of the "conservative" Motalefeh Party, Mohammad Nabi Habibi, on growing conflict with President Ahmadinejad and his allies, "The Velayat Party [declared by Ahmadinejad this weekend] does not exist."

Our correspondent, drawing on Motalefeh's traditional power in the Bazaar, interprets Habibi's statement: "If you hit my party, I hit your economy."

1815 GMT: More on the Khatami Statement (see 1510 GMT). Khabar Online's main takeaway from Mohammad Khatami's meeting with youth groups and reformist journalists is his declaration that "many people, professors, students, experts, and journalists are leaving the country".

Parleman News focuses on Khatami's assertion that the "Green Movement belongs to the people" and his reading of the political situation: "Some think they are above the law," deviating from religious principles. Khatami added,  "We have reached a point that even the Majlis cannot stop injustice". In a pointed reference to President Ahmadinejad's statement that Iran needs no other than the "Velayat Party", Khatami noted, "The Shah said as well that we have only one party."

1630 GMT: The Bazaar Strikes. Tehran Bureau sends the following from a correspondent: ""I visited the bazaar today and was quite surprised to see most stores closed there. There were NO security personnel in uniform to be found anywhere. I did see a Basiji directing traffic half a mile away. There was also a flier on the wall (inside the main bazaar) which said the '15% deal is off'."

More claimed footage from today:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FN26VggCKqE[/youtube]

1525 GMT: Culture Corner (Revolutionary Guard Edition). The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps has announced that it is establishing an "Association of Cultural Elites" near Tehran University.

1510 GMT: Khatami on "Double-Edged" Religion. Speaking to youth parties and reformist journalists, former President Mohammad Khatami has declared that religion can be "a double-edged sword" insofar as it can pursue rights and justice but it also be a tool to justify exclusion and failure.

1455 GMT: Fighting the Oil Squeeze. Iranian Students News Agency reports that Iran cut its imports of gasoline by almost 50% in March-June 2010, compared to figures of the previous year.

1445 GMT: Keeping the Pressure On. Interesting, given our current attention to possible manoeuvres against President Ahmadinejad, to find Jahan News citing Abdolhossein Ruholamini, the campaign manager for Mohsen Rezaei in the 2009 Presidential campaign and the father of Mohsen Rouholamini, killed in Kahrizak Prison last summer.

Ruholamini asks, given that the criminal verdicts over Kahrizak have been announced, why has Saeed Mortazavi, the former Tehran Prosecutor General and now aide to the President, not been dismissed?

1435 GMT: Statements Present. Mir Hossein Mousavi has said, in a meeting with a group of faculty of Tarbiat Modarres University, that everyone who defends rights is a member of the Green Movement.

Mousavi declared, "Soon Green Hope will win because people are looking for the realization of rights. The seeking of human freedom is the defence of rationality and logic against oppression and lies."

1425 GMT: Statements Past. Khordaad 88 has posted the English translation of the Mousavi-Karroubi press conference on 8 June, held four days before the anniversary of the 2009 Presidential election.

Rooz Online has published the English translation of its interview this weekend with Zahra Rahnavard on the diversity of the Green Movement and its welcoming of criticism.

1420 GMT: Broadcast News. The head of SWR, part of the German broadcaster ARD, has defended the recent visit of the head of Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, Ezzatollah Zarghami, and an IRIB delegation by saying that there were no cooperation agreements during an "informational visit". The clear implication in the letter is that the reception of IRIB ensures that ARD can maintain a journalistic presence in Iran.

1410 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Four detainees in Rejai Shahr Prison have written the Tehran Prosecutor General, Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi, asking, "Where is the human dignity you have claimed?"

A letter from 160 activists demands the release of Azam Veysameh, a journalist arrrested on 10 June.

1400 GMT: Political Changes. Hossein Saberi, the Governor of Lorestan Province in western Iran, was suddenly replaced. So sudden, in fact, that he learned of his dismissal from an announcement on Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting.

1355 GMT: And now claimed footage of the strike at the Tehran Bazaar today:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rk4CqIK-ZIg[/youtube]

1345 GMT: The Bazaar Strikes. Rah-e-Sabz claims, with supporting photos, that "strikes continued today and were even more extensive than last week".

Khabar Online is also carrying the news, which has been picked up by Agence France Presse. The Government has been declaring that a compromise deal of a 15% tax increase --- down from the original 70% --- has been agreed.



1340 GMT: Parliament v. President. MP Omidvar Rezaei has said that Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani "reminded" President Ahmadinejad, at the meeting of the heads of the executive, legislative, and judicial brances, of violating Article 138 over the implementation of laws.

MP Emad Afrough has declared that the Supreme Council of Cultural Revolution, at the centre of the dispute over Islamic Azad University, is far from acceptable because of members' inability, too many jobs, and low expertise.

1325 GMT: Execution Watch. The international furour over the sentencing to death by stoning, now temporarily suspended, of Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani has been matched by questions within Iran. Ayatollah Bayat Zanjani has pronounced that stoning is not in the Qu'ran while reformist Masoumeh Ebtekar, a former Vice President, has asserted that Ayatollah Khomeini said many times that stoning should not be carried out.

1020 GMT: The Battle Within. Ali Larijani has used the economic front to take another jab at the Government. He has underlined the importance of a "relationship between hardliners and clergy" (a call for a front to challenge Ahmadinejad?) and added that the meaning of Iran's Article 44 regulating state and private economic spheres was not for the latest sell-off of four companies.

1015 GMT: Sideshow of the Day. A bit off the key terrain of Iranian politics, this curious case continues:

An Iranian nuclear scientist who Tehran claims was kidnapped by the United States has sought refuge at the Pakistani embassy's Iranian interests section in Washington and is seeking to return home to Iran, Pakistani authorities said Tuesday.

Shahram Amiri, a onetime researcher at Iran's Atomic Energy Organization who disappeared during a trip to Saudi Arabia last year, appeared at the Iranian interests section office at 6:30 p.m. Monday, said Pakistani Foreign Office spokesman Abdul Basit.

0828 GMT: Break Time. Off to teach at the Clinton Institute Summer School so updates will resume briefly in about 90 minutes and then again this afternoon.

0825 GMT: The Battle Within. Secretary of Expediency Council (and 2009 Presidential candidate) Mohsen Rezaei has given a long interview to Khabar Online. Lots to be worked through, but an EA correspondent notes his claim
that Hashemi Rafsanjani's manoeuvre is "to bring back reformers and divert (enheraf) hardliners".

That would seem to be a swipe at Rafsanjani, which is at odds with my weekend analysis of planners against Ahmadinejad, including Rezaei, reaching out to the former President.

0810 GMT: Electoral Change. The Guardian Council has approved a Parliament bill to hold Presidential and city council elections at the same time, effectively the next municipal ballot by two years to 2013.

0807 GMT: We Want Our Money. According to Peyke Iran, President Ahmadinejad has claimed that banks owe the Government 10 trillion toman (about $10 billion).

0805 GMT: Economic Salvation? Borzou Daragahi of the Los Angeles Times investigates continued and growing links between Germany and Tehran:

Chancellor Angela Merkel can warn companies all she wants to stop doing business with Iran. Yet commerce between German firms and the Islamic Republic keeps expanding, as businesses here continue longstanding relationships with Tehran.

In the first four months of 2010, trade between Iran and Germany totaled nearly $1.8 billion, up 20% from the same period last year, according to the German-Iranian Chamber of Commerce in Hamburg.

0800 GMT: Trouble in Qom? Alongside our special look this morning at a claimed rebuke of the Supreme Leader by Grand Ayatollah Safi Golpayegani, Rah-e-Sabz claims concern amongst clerics about a change in identity of the seminaries (howzeh).

0755 GMT: Watching the Bazaar. Iran should be back to work today after an extended holiday since last Thursday. We're watching for news out of the Tehran Bazaar, amidst chatter both about continued strikes and about a settlement between the Government and the vendors, reducing the business tax increase from 70% to 15%.

0725 GMT: We begin this morning with an analysis of a reported message from Grand Ayatollah Safi Golpayegani to the Supreme Leader: has Ayatollah Khamenei been told that his earthly life has been wasted and his heavenly one is in doubt?

And it looks like there is a new player in Iranian broadcasting: welcome to Mir Hossein Mousavi TV.